Atmospheric Research最新文献

{"title":"Improving the presentation of HONO in CMAQ based on observations over the Yangtze River Delta Region","authors":"Shuxian Zhang ,&nbsp;Jie Yao ,&nbsp;Honghui Xu ,&nbsp;Jun He ,&nbsp;Man Yue ,&nbsp;Meng Shan ,&nbsp;Fan Meng ,&nbsp;Xiaoai Jin ,&nbsp;Ziqi Jin ,&nbsp;Huansang Chen ,&nbsp;Yilei Dong","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108487","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108487","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate representation of nitrous acid (HONO) chemistry is critical for modeling atmospheric oxidation capacity and secondary pollutants like ozone (O₃) in China, yet current air quality models systematically underestimate HONO. To address this deficiency in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, we integrated five additional heterogeneous reactions: heterogeneous NO₂ reactions on ground/aerosol surfaces, particulate nitrate photolysis, NO_x oxidation, and acid displacement reactions. These updates were evaluated against wintertime HONO observations from the Lin'an Regional Atmospheric Background Station (LABS) in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD). The revised model reduced HONO underestimation dramatically, improving normalized mean bias from −90.0 % to −34.4 %. The simulation results demonstrated that ground-surface heterogeneous reactions dominated overall HONO production (45.4 %), peaking at night (65.3 %), while daytime formation was primarily driven by acid displacement (53.3 %). The enhanced HONO simulation amplified atmospheric oxidation capacity, increasing hydroxyl (OH) and hydroperoxyl (HO₂) radical concentrations by 87.6 % and 172.6 %, respectively. Consequently, O₃ peak simulations improved by 6.0–17.0 %, significantly reducing model bias (NMB: −8.9 % to −2.0 %) and better capturing pollution episodes. The model's enhanced representation of HONO formation significantly reduced the discrepancy between simulated and observed data, underscoring the critical importance of comprehending and accurately modeling HONO in the study of secondary pollution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"329 ","pages":"Article 108487"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145093978","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ascent–drift–descent radiosonde system: Field experiments and data quality assessment","authors":"Lebao Yao ,&nbsp;Dan Shen ,&nbsp;Xin Sun ,&nbsp;Donghai Wang ,&nbsp;Xiaozhong Cao ,&nbsp;Jincheng Wang ,&nbsp;Dan Wang ,&nbsp;Chunyan Zhang ,&nbsp;Qiyun Guo","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108489","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108489","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ascent–Drift–Descent Radiosonde System (ADDRS), China's independently developed third-generation radiosonde system, employs navigation satellite (Beidou and GPS) positioning technology to enhance the accuracy and reliability of wind measurements. Meanwhile, by using double sounding balloons nested inside and outside, it can conduct the three-phase observation of ascent–drift–descent, thereby achieving two vertical profiles and one stratospheric trajectory by releasing sounding balloons only once. Based on the data from the ADDRS GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) wind-finding radiosonde (hereafter ADDRS radiosonde) during the ascent and descent phases from field experiments conducted in Inner Mongolia and Guangdong Province, this study compared the observation-minus-analysis (O−A) statistics between the radiosonde data and the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA5) dataset. Furthermore, the data were assessed according to the uncertainty specified in the Observing Systems Capability Analysis and Review Tool (OSCAR) requirements, which are derived from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Rolling Review of Requirements (RRR) for upper-air measurements. Meanwhile, the operational L-band radar wind-finding radiosonde (hereafter L-band radiosonde) data at the same stations were taken as a reference. The results show that the wind components at all levels, as well as the temperature during nighttime, can be used directly. By contrast, it is recommended that positive bias corrections be applied to the temperature in the lower stratosphere in the ascent phase during daytime and the relative humidity at upper levels; while negative bias corrections be applied to the temperature at all levels in the descent phase during daytime and the relative humidity across the lower to middle troposphere, prior to distribution on the Global Telecommunication System (GTS) to increase their utility. Except for the relative humidity between 800 and 550 hPa, all other variables from the ADDRS radiosonde data perform better than the threshold values of OSCAR requirements uncertainty, demonstrating their suitability for numerical weather prediction (NWP) application. The wind components at all levels and the temperature below 100 hPa achieve the breakthrough values, indicating potential improvements for NWP performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"329 ","pages":"Article 108489"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145093977","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Advancing convection-permitting regional climate modeling for monsoon extremes in data-scarce, topographically complex regions of South Asia","authors":"Mujtaba Hassan ,&nbsp;Shahansha Abbas ,&nbsp;Ahmad Bilal ,&nbsp;Farrukh A. Chishtie ,&nbsp;Umer Zeeshan Ijaz ,&nbsp;Xiaogang Shi ,&nbsp;Waheed Iqbal ,&nbsp;Tariq Mahmood ,&nbsp;Rashid Mahmood ,&nbsp;Ieeraj Fatima","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108486","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108486","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Extreme precipitation events are among the most damaging hydroclimatic hazards, particularly in monsoon-dominated, topographically complex, and data-scarce regions of South Asia. Despite advances in global and regional climate modeling, accurate simulations of such extreme events remain challenging due to the nonlinear interactions between deep convection, orography, and large-scale circulation. This study evaluates the performance of the Regional Climate Model RegCM5, developed by the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), and reproduces two severe monsoon-driven precipitation events: July 2010 and August 2022. High-resolution simulations were conducted using convection-permitting (3 km) non-hydrostatic cores (MOLOCH and MM5) and are compared with coarser hydrostatic (12 km, MM4) simulations employing parameterized convection. Model outputs were validated against ERA5 and ERA5-Land reanalysis, satellite-based GPM precipitation, the Gloh2 ensemble product, and in-situ observations. Results indicate that the 3 km MOLOCH configuration significantly improves the simulation of precipitation intensity, spatial distribution, and temporal variability relative to hydrostatic runs. Notably, RegCM5-MOLOCH effectively captures the 500 hPa geopotential height patterns associated with the extreme event of the 2010 Russian blocking ridge, underscoring its utility in resolving key synoptic drivers.</div><div>RegCM5-MOLOCH reproduces the large-scale moisture transport while capturing terrain-induced convergence along the Sulaiman mountain ranges of Balochistan. Diagnostics of Moisture Flux Convergence (MFC) and Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) further reveal strong southwesterly moisture inflow from the Arabian Sea converging over Sindh and Balochistan during August 2022, consistent with the flood-affected areas. Furthermore, Spearman rank correlation analysis reveals robust linkages between simulated precipitation and sea surface temperature-related changes in La Niña and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). This highlights the combined influence of large-scale ocean-atmosphere modes on monsoon extremes. Whilst, overall, convection-permitting simulations reduce biases, some persistent wet biases remain, likely due to the unresolved uncertainties in cloud microphysics, land–atmosphere coupling, and moisture transport. These findings enhance the application of high-resolution regional modeling for enhanced flood risk assessment, improved early warning systems, and more effective climate adaptation strategies in monsoon-affected regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"329 ","pages":"Article 108486"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145118985","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Characteristics of the frequency of wintertime Indian-Burma Trough events and its linkage with Tropical Indo-Pacific Sea surface temperature anomalies","authors":"Xin Yan ,&nbsp;Xiaohang Cao ,&nbsp;Junpeng Yuan ,&nbsp;Dechao Kong ,&nbsp;Ruqi Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108485","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108485","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Indian-Burma Trough (IBT) can modulate winter precipitation across East and South Asia on various timescales, yet traditional climatological indices fail to capture its synoptic-scale variability. This study defines an event-based frequency index by objectively identifying the individual IBT events from 1981 to 2019, revealing an average of 18.3 events per winter that originate over the northern Bay of Bengal and propagate eastward along the subtropical westerlies. The interannual variability of IBT frequency is closely linked to a tripole pattern of the tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), showing significant positive correlations with the SSTAs in tropical western Indian Ocean and central-eastern Pacific Ocean, and a negative correlation with the equatorial SSTAs east of the Philippines. This SST configuration modulates IBT frequency through dual pathways. (1) Tripole-organized Walker circulation suppresses convection near the Maritime Continent, triggering a northern Indian Ocean anticyclone that enhances westerlies and cyclonic vorticity over the Bay of Bengal for IBT occurrence. (2) SST-induced meridional thermal contrasts between the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean, particularly the Indian Ocean, and the Tibetan Plateau regulate IBT formation via thermal wind-topography interactions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"329 ","pages":"Article 108485"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145155496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact transition of spring North Pacific Oscillation on the Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone during autumn","authors":"Chixiang Lin ,&nbsp;Zeming Wu ,&nbsp;Chundi Hu","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108483","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108483","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) is the second dominant mode in the Northern Pacific sea-level pressure, exerting significant influences on the tropical cyclone (TC) over the western North Pacific (WNP). While studies show that the spatial pattern of NPO has undergone interdecadal changes, the impact of these changes on the NPO-TC relationship is unclear. Here we reveal that this relationship experienced an interdecadal shift from positive to negative correlation around 2004/2005. During the earlier period (1986–2004), the NPO induced a persistent cold pool over the WNP, which promoted northerly winds, enhancing subsidence and reduced relative humidity to suppress TC genesis. In contrast, during the later period (2005–2023), the southern lobe of the NPO extended northwestward, which led to the development of a localized warm pool over the subtropical WNP. The expanding warm pool persisted into autumn and contributed to a cyclonic circulation centered over the Philippines Sea, which enhanced upward motion and moisture convergence to promote TC genesis. Our findings provide important insights into the mechanisms driving interdecadal variability in TC activity and highlight the role of springtime NPO in improving seasonal prediction models under ongoing climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"329 ","pages":"Article 108483"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145094043","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analysis of the evolutionary patterns and drivers of Capturability of Atmospheric Water (CAW) on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau","authors":"Hou-Liang Lu ,&nbsp;Han Zhou ,&nbsp;Hui-Min Zuo ,&nbsp;Yu-Fei Jiao ,&nbsp;Bill X. Hu","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108484","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108484","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is a climate-sensitive region with profound implications for the atmospheric water cycle in both Asia and the globe. While global warming has increased precipitation and atmospheric water-holding capacity, energy constraints prevent a proportional relationship between atmospheric water content and global mean precipitation changes. In this study, we utilized multi-source precipitation datasets (ERA5-Land, CPC, CRU, CMAP, GPCP) and atmospheric water flux data (ERA5) to investigate the conversion of atmospheric water to precipitation, a fundamental water cycle process, across the QTP and its surrounding regions from 1979 to 2020 using the Capturability of Atmospheric Water (CAW) index. Our findings reveal a dipole evolution pattern in CAW, with strengthening in the north and weakening in the south. The QTP, a positive mismatch region with limited atmospheric water but efficient precipitation conversion, is highly sensitive to climate change. The evolution of CAW is driven by meteorological factors, with cloud cover and actual evapotranspiration enhancing CAW in the northeastern QTP, while potential evapotranspiration weakens CAW in the southeastern QTP. On a larger scale, CAW evolution is modulated by large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, where the East Asian summer monsoon enhances CAW in the northeast, while the South Asian summer monsoon weakens CAW in the southeast. Additionally, a qualitative assessment of atmospheric water resource potential, integrating CAW and water vapor transport flux, identifies four distinct development models. These findings provide critical insights for water resource management and climate adaptation strategies in the QTP.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"329 ","pages":"Article 108484"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145093979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Optimal spatio-temporal interpolation of aerosol optical depth over China using fixed rank kriging","authors":"Yu Kong ,&nbsp;Bai Liu ,&nbsp;Dazhi Yang ,&nbsp;Disong Fu ,&nbsp;Hongrong Shi ,&nbsp;Yun Chen ,&nbsp;Guoming Yang ,&nbsp;Yong Chen ,&nbsp;Jiaqi Chen ,&nbsp;Yanbo Shen ,&nbsp;Xiang’ao Xia","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108462","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108462","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate characterization of aerosol optical depth (AOD) is crucial for atmospheric science, serving as a cornerstone metric in aerosol-climate process research and radiative forcing quantification. However, satellite-based AOD observations contain data gaps due to cloud contamination and high surface albedo. Appropriate statistical modeling of the spatio-temporal AOD process is therefore essential to filling those data gaps, so as to acquire a reliable and gap-free dataset. Owing to the high-dimensional nature of the underlying interpolation problem, traditional geostatistical approaches are computationally infeasible. In this study, a spatial mixed effect model is used to describe the AOD process, which separates the process into large-, small-, and fine-scale spatial variations, modeled through covariates and spatial basis functions. Since the dimension of the basis functions is fixed and is much smaller than the original data dimension, the method is known as fixed rank kriging (FRK), which makes the spatial prediction tractable. The empirical part of this study applies FRK on monthly and daily AOD observations from MODIS. On the monthly dataset, using the AERONET observations as the ground truth, FRK AOD is found to outperform several benchmarks, including inverse distance weighting interpolation, DeepKriging, and the MERRA-2 reanalysis. Additionally, on the daily dataset, FRK is shown to be able to effectively handle large-scale data, whereas other alternatives often fail due to computational infeasibility.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"329 ","pages":"Article 108462"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145060909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigation on the method of ozone profile retrieval using MAX-DOAS","authors":"Haoyue Wang ,&nbsp;Xunhao Ma ,&nbsp;Ke Yu ,&nbsp;Feihong Xiao ,&nbsp;Weiguo Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108480","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108480","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The retrieval method for ozone (O₃) profiles was investigated using spectra measured by the Multi-Axis Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (MAX-DOAS) technique in Kunming and Shanghai. Through simulations,it was found that stratospheric O₃ differential slant column density (DSCDₛₜᵣₐ) significantly affects tropospheric O₃ differential slant column density (DSCDₜᵣₒₚ). The Umkehr effect was integrated into MAX-DOAS, and O₃ DSCDₛₜᵣₐ calculated from O₃ profiles above 10 km—was used to separate O₃ DSCDₜᵣₒₚ from total O₃ DSCD (DSCDₜₒₜₐₗ). Subsequently,Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) technique and the optimal estimation method (OEM) were combined to retrieve tropospheric O₃ profiles. Using Electronic Chemistry Cell (ECC) O₃ sounding profiles in Kunming as a reference, comparisons between MAX-DOAS (Umkehr) profiles and verification profiles from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI),Dobson spectrophotometers, and Brewer spectrophotometers showed good consistency, with deviations only at specific heights.Near the tropopause, the relative deviation between MAX-DOAS retrievals and ECC data increased;however,MAX-DOAS retrievals at heights of 20–40 km were highly sensitive to the Umkehr effect and exhibited small deviations from ECC data. For tropospheric O₃ profiles retrieved via MAX-DOAS (OEM),the maximum relative deviation between O₃ concentrations in the 1-km surface layer and ECC data was-7.8 %.Additionally, O₃ profiles retrieved by the Shanghai MAX-DOAS (Umkehr) were consistent with OMI profiles. Overall,combining the DOAS technique with the Umkehr principle enables the retrieval of stable and reliable O₃ profiles.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"329 ","pages":"Article 108480"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145155497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Characteristics of cloud base height distribution over a tropical urban region Hyderabad, India","authors":"H.Z. Vanlalrochana ,&nbsp;T. Narayana Rao ,&nbsp;V. Jayachandran ,&nbsp;S. Satheeshkumar ,&nbsp;C. Sudheesh","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108476","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108476","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite playing a crucial role in regulating Earth's radiative balance and driving the hydrological cycle, clouds remain inadequately characterised by both models and observations due to their substantial spatiotemporal variability. In tropical urban environments, cloud characteristics are further complicated by anthropogenic heat, abundance of aerosols, and local atmospheric dynamics. The present study characterises the clouds over an Urban region, Hyderabad, India, by studying the seasonal and diurnal variability of cloud base height (CBH) using long-term Ceilometer observations (July 2019–March 2025). The monsoon season had the highest cloud occurrence frequency (70.5 %), followed by postmonsoon (28.1 %), premonsoon (12.5 %), and winter (7.8 %). Single-layer clouds dominated (≈ 67.8 %) irrespective of seasons, and the multi-layer clouds were more prevalent during the monsoon. Most clouds occurred below 2 km, with noticeable bimodal distributions during the monsoon and premonsoon seasons. While the primary mode at 1–2 km is closely linked to the planetary boundary layer (PBL) height, the second prominent cloud vertical mode is associated with the 0 °C isotherm level. The diurnal variation of primary cloud mode closely follows the PBL evolution, especially during the monsoon and postmonsoon seasons. The cloud occurrence frequency also shows a strong diurnal cycle with high occurrence of clouds during the daytime in all the seasons, probably associated with daytime heating by insolation. The efficacy of reanalysis datasets in producing accurate cloud characteristics is assessed by comparing ERA5 products with long-term statistics obtained in the present study. It is noted that ERA5-derived CBH overestimates (underestimates) low (high)-level clouds.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"329 ","pages":"Article 108476"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145118984","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Areas susceptible to desertification in Brazil: An approach based on the frequency of annual aridity classes","authors":"Larissa I.M. Linhares ,&nbsp;Pedro R. Mutti ,&nbsp;Beatriz M. Funatsu ,&nbsp;Vincent Dubreuil ,&nbsp;Bergson G. Bezerra ,&nbsp;Albert S.F.S. Martins ,&nbsp;Iara B. da Silva ,&nbsp;Fábio V. de Montes ,&nbsp;Gabriel V.S. do Nascimento ,&nbsp;Artur M.G. da Silveira ,&nbsp;Fábio V.M.S. Lima ,&nbsp;Vitória R.S. de Souza ,&nbsp;Itauan D.G. de Medeiros","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108477","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108477","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The expansion of arid lands is one of the most critical environmental threats of the century, driven by climate change and unsustainable human activities. In Brazil, recent climatic shifts suggest an expansion of arid and semi-arid zones beyond the traditionally vulnerable Northeast region. While prior research has emphasized long-term climatological trends focused in that region, this study adopts non-stationary approaches to examine year-by-year aridity class frequencies from 1961 to 2020 across the entirety of Brazil. It also distinguishes the relative influence of precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) on observed aridity index (AI) changes. Our results reveal an expansion of roughly 30 % of dryland conditions across Brazil over the past 30 years, extending beyond the traditionally semi-arid Northeast into the Southeast, and an emerging hotspot in the Pantanal, potentially linked with larger scale South American aridization trends. The increasing annual frequency of arid and semi-arid classifications, particularly in emerging zones, suggests a persistent shift towards drier climates. This pattern seems to be driven primarily by declining P and secondarily by rising PET (temperature). By analyzing annual frequencies, we uncover a creeping aridity process, which directly converses with updated desertification risk assessments and climate adaptation strategies in Brazil, such as the ‘Brazilian Action Plan to Combat Desertification and Mitigate the Effects of Drought’.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"329 ","pages":"Article 108477"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145061236","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}