{"title":"Enhanced heavy rainfall forecasting via GNSS ZTD assimilation with advanced observation error diagnosis","authors":"Ying Hui, Wei Han, Yabin Zhang, Lu Sun, Panxing Lou, Yongyong Ma, Xin Song, Caiyan Kang, Mingheng Chang","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109302","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109302","url":null,"abstract":"Observation and background error covariances jointly determine the weight assigned to observational data and background fields in data assimilation, making precise observation error diagnosis crucial for improving assimilation accuracy. This research focused on global navigation satellite system zenith total delay (GNSS ZTD) data and introduced an improved diagnostic scheme based on existing theoretical frameworks for diagnosing observation errors. To develop the proposed method, this study analyzed the impact of horizontal correlation length scales on observation errors. A specialized assimilation process was designed to reduce the spatial correlation of observation errors, thereby preventing overfitting and reverse fitting issues while increasing the physical plausibility of error characterization. Additionally, by considering temporal variations in GNSS ZTD observations, the approach enables daily updates to observation errors and systematic biases over a rolling 28-day window. Using the WRF model's 3D-Var assimilation system, four comparative experiments with different combinations of observational data were designed. Results showed that combining GNSS ZTD with conventional observational data greatly improved the model's initial moisture conditions. This led to enhanced accuracy in precipitation forecast intensity and spatial distribution, increased threat scores, and a substantial reduction in false alarms and misses. Moreover, adding GNSS ZTD data improved agreement between forecasted hourly precipitation and observed patterns, highlighting its critical role in numerical weather prediction. The proposed diagnostic approach is potentially applicable without cross-validation to observation types with only horizontal error correlations, whereas more complex structures require further validation.","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"134 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2026-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148885301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Rakesh Ghosh, Pavan R. Vaidya, Manoj A. Domkawale, Hamza Varikoden, Sunil D. Pawar
{"title":"Linking polarimetric radar-derived storm structure to lightning activity in monsoon-trough convection over the Indian Core Monsoon Zone","authors":"Rakesh Ghosh, Pavan R. Vaidya, Manoj A. Domkawale, Hamza Varikoden, Sunil D. Pawar","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109295","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109295","url":null,"abstract":"Lightning processes within the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) remain poorly understood because widespread rainfall is frequently accompanied by relatively weak electrification, unlike the intense lightning activity observed during the premonsoon season. This study investigates the dynamical and microphysical characteristics of lightning-producing convection associated with the monsoon trough over the Core Monsoon Zone (CMZ) during the 2024 summer monsoon using collocated observations from a C-band dual-polarimetric Doppler weather radar and a ground-based lightning detection network. Results show that lightning is preferentially concentrated along the edges of the monsoon trough rather than uniformly distributed within the extensive precipitation region, indicating that large-scale monsoon dynamics strongly regulate storm electrification. These electrically active regions are characterized by enhanced low-level convergence, stronger mid-level wind shear, and deeper updraft penetration into the mixed-phase region (−10 °C to −20 °C) compared with rainfall-dominant convection. A characteristic lightning threshold is identified when radar reflectivity exceeds 34–38 dBZ above the −10 °C isotherm, highlighting the importance of sustained mixed-phase growth for lightning production during the active monsoon. Polarimetric signatures exhibit enhanced reflectivity (Z), differential reflectivity (Z<ce:inf loc=\"post\">DR</ce:inf>), and differential specific phase (K<ce:inf loc=\"post\">DP</ce:inf>) above the melting layer together with reduced ρ<ce:inf loc=\"post\">hv</ce:inf>, indicating abundant supercooled liquid water, rimed ice particles, and efficient non-inductive charge separation. Temporal analyses further show that K<ce:inf loc=\"post\">DP</ce:inf> volume above the melting layer exhibits a stronger correspondence with lightning flash rate than Z<ce:inf loc=\"post\">DR</ce:inf> volume, suggesting that K<ce:inf loc=\"post\">DP</ce:inf> is a more direct proxy for the electrically active mixed-phase region, whereas Z<ce:inf loc=\"post\">DR</ce:inf> primarily reflects storm growth and precipitation evolution. In contrast to premonsoon thunderstorms, monsoon storms produce lightning despite comparatively weaker mixed-phase reflectivity, reduced graupel/hail signatures, and only infrequent negative Z<ce:inf loc=\"post\">DR</ce:inf> and K<ce:inf loc=\"post\">DP</ce:inf> signatures associated with electric-field-induced ice crystal orientation. These findings demonstrate that Indian monsoon electrification represents a distinct convective regime in which large-scale monsoon-trough dynamics, rather than buoyancy alone, govern mixed-phase microphysical evolution and lightning production. The results provide new observational constraints for lightning parameterization, radar-based nowcasting, and understanding tropical storm electrification.","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2026-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148885304","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Non-stationary evolution of summer wet-bulb temperature in China (1951–2024): Accelerated warming and time-varying roles of temperature and humidity","authors":"Tianci Yao, Shengfa Li, Qing Yu, Jia Sun, Xiangyu Wang, Wanjun Zhang, Lixin Su","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109298","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109298","url":null,"abstract":"Rising wet-bulb temperature (<ce:italic>WBT</ce:italic>, an indicator for moist heat stress) under global warming poses severe health and socioeconomic risks. However, traditional static linear assessments often obscure the phased evolution and shifting drivers of <ce:italic>WBT</ce:italic>. Using the high-resolution China Meteorological Forcing Dataset v2.0 (1951–2024), this study investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of summer (June–August) <ce:italic>WBT</ce:italic> across China and disentangled the time-varying contributions of air temperature (<ce:italic>T</ce:italic>) and specific humidity (<ce:italic>H</ce:italic>) via a 15-year sliding window and piecewise linear fitting framework. We identified a widespread non-linear acceleration in <ce:italic>WBT</ce:italic> warming rates, anchored by a critical trend turning point around 1976, where the national trend escalated from −0.13 °C/decade to 0.23 °C/decade. Generally, the most recent 15-year period exhibited the fastest or second-fastest decadal <ce:italic>WBT</ce:italic> warming rate across the entire study period. The dynamic attribution revealed that this non-linear evolution was governed by distinct thermodynamic drivers across timescales. For the long-term trend, <ce:italic>T</ce:italic> and <ce:italic>H</ce:italic> exhibited a synergistic driving relationship, with <ce:italic>T</ce:italic> providing a steady, ubiquitous background warming force. Conversely, short-term <ce:italic>WBT</ce:italic> dynamics were fundamentally dictated by <ce:italic>H</ce:italic> fluctuations. The unprecedented surge in recent <ce:italic>WBT</ce:italic> warming rates (2010–2024), which exceeded 0.6 °C/decade in highly populated eastern and southern China, was overwhelmingly dominated by sharp local humidity bursts. Cross-compared with ERA5-Land reanalysis, these findings confirm the accelerated <ce:italic>WBT</ce:italic> trends, highlighting the urgent need for phase-dependent adaptation strategies to mitigate escalating moist heat risks.","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2026-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148885303","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Anthropogenic forcing dominates relentless westward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high","authors":"Xiadong An, Wen Chen, Peng Hu","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109301","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109301","url":null,"abstract":"The western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), a crucial component of the Asian monsoon system, significantly influences East and Southeast Asian temperature. Recently, the WNPSH has been shifting westward, triggering extreme heatwaves in the affected regions. Based on an improved widely adopted definition method for the WNPSH, this study indicates that the westward expansion of the WNPSH is dominated by greenhouse gases forcing. On the one hand, greenhouse gases induce stronger warming in the upper troposphere than in the lower troposphere over the western North Pacific, increasing regional atmospheric stability and facilitating the westward migration of the WNPSH. On the other hand, greenhouse gases significantly intensify descending motion over the western North Pacific, further promoting the westward extension of the WNPSH. Alarmingly, global warming is projected to push the westernmost point of the WNPSH to 100°E at least 35 years earlier than previously expected. These changes, driven by both dynamic and thermodynamic processes, support the westward extension of the WNPSH.","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2026-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148885306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Compound air stagnation and heatwave events: A ninefold increase in frequency and a tenfold rise in population exposure to air pollution over India","authors":"Gayathri Balachandran, S. Sumith Satheendran","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109293","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109293","url":null,"abstract":"Heatwaves and air stagnation are each known to degrade air quality, but their combined influence remains poorly understood, and it is not yet established which of the two conditions, or their co-occurrence, produces the most severe pollution. The present study investigates seventeen years (2003–2019) of daily gridded data over India, namely MODIS MAIAC aerosol optical depth (AOD), CAMS PM₂.₅, MERRA-2 winds and precipitation, and IMD maximum temperature, to compare pollution levels on air stagnation days, on heatwave days, and on days when both conditions occur together. The results show that the compound event affects the Indian region far more strongly than either event acting alone. Pollution severity, measured through PM₂.₅ and AOD, increases in the order Air stagnation < Heatwave < (Air stagnation + Heatwave). Over the study period, the frequency of the compound event increased ninefold across the Indian region. Such events are confined to the pre-monsoon (March, April, May) and monsoon (June, July, August, September) seasons and remain restricted to central India and the Indo-Gangetic Plain, where strong continental heating and poor ventilation act upon emissions from dust, crop residue burning, thermal power plants, and urban sources. The rising number of compound-event days, the expanding area affected, and a striking tenfold increase in population exposure together raise serious concerns for the health of the resident population.","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"55 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2026-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148885305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Asymmetric changes in annual marine heatwave duration before and after a 2°C overshoot in MRI-ESM2–0","authors":"Lijuan Hua, Naiming Yuan","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109300","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109300","url":null,"abstract":"Despite substantial mitigation efforts worldwide, current emission trajectories indicate that global mean temperature is likely to temporarily exceed 1.5 °C or 2 °C thresholds, even if temperatures may subsequently decline below these levels under sustained net-negative emissions. Whether climate responses to such temperature changes are reversible is a critical and unresolved question. Here, we investigated the reversibility of marine heatwave (MHW) using a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulation under the SSP5–3.4 overshoot scenario. Annual MHW durations are compared between a 20-year period preceding the 2 °C overshoot (from the SSP5–8.5 scenario) and a 20-year period after global mean temperature has declined below 2 °C. We find pronounced spatial heterogeneity, i.e., some regions such as the subtropical north Pacific exhibit a significant reduction in MHW duration after the overshoot, while some other regions including the tropical southeastern Pacific, experience a continued and significant increase. This asymmetric behavior is closely associated with the long-term memory (LTM) characteristics of the climate system. Regions in which sea surface temperature anomalies exhibit stronger LTM than global mean temperature tend to experience prolonged MHW after the overshoot. These results from MRI-ESM2–0 CGCM demonstrate that a temperature overshoot may impose enduring risks to marine systems, underscoring the need for rapid emission reductions rather than reliance on future geoengineering.","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2026-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148852689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Observation errors of Fengyun-4A atmospheric motion vectors for data assimilation during Typhoon Doksuri (2023)","authors":"Yongbo Zhou, Lijian Zhu, Jinhan Yuan, Chao Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109299","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109299","url":null,"abstract":"The Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMV) from China's Fengyun-4A (FY-4A) geostationary satellite, derived from two water vapor channels and one infrared channel of the Advanced Geostationary Radiation Imager (AGRI), have been increasingly applied in Data Assimilation (DA). However, uncertainties remain in estimating the AMV observation errors during the DA process, which may lead to suboptimal DA results. To address this issue, we conducted a series of DA experiments using Typhoon Doksuri (2023) as a case study to evaluate the two most commonly used methods for estimating observation errors, namely the reanalysis data-based method (RAD) and the method using observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis statistics (D05). The results indicated that the observation errors estimated by the D05 method were insensitive to the initial error specifications. DA experiments using either error estimation method reduced typhoon track errors by approximately 40%. Both the CTRL run and the DA experiments underestimated the typhoon's intensity. However, compared with the CTRL run, assimilating AMVs improved intensity forecasts during the developing stage but worsened them during the mature and decaying stages. This occurred partly because the vertically inhomogeneous distribution of AMVs enhances vertical wind shear. In contrast, varying the observation error specifications had only marginal effects on typhoon forecasting, leading to track differences of approximately 20 km and intensity differences of approximately 7 hPa. Additional experiments with a reduced thinning distance yielded consistent results. These findings provide confidence in the application of either error estimation method for typhoon forecasting with FY-4A AMVs. Future work may focus on mitigating the negative impacts of vertically inhomogeneous AMV sampling.","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2026-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148852695","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Lizi Wang, Zeyong Hu, Haipeng Yu, Ya Hou, Jinyu Zhang, Xiangyuan Lou, Guantian Wang
{"title":"Thermal pumping of the Tibetan Plateau Summer Monsoon and its association with the South Asian High and East Asian summer monsoon variability","authors":"Lizi Wang, Zeyong Hu, Haipeng Yu, Ya Hou, Jinyu Zhang, Xiangyuan Lou, Guantian Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109290","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109290","url":null,"abstract":"The Tibetan Plateau Summer Monsoon (TPSM) has a distinct circulation structure driven by the Tibetan Plateau (TP) thermal air pumping. Its main features are lower-tropospheric convergence and upper-tropospheric divergence. Based on the JRA-3Q reanalysis, this study proposes a new index named the Pumping Plateau Monsoon Index (PPMI). The PPMI is defined as the difference in divergence between 200 and 600 hPa. It is used to measure the intensity of the TPSM thermal pumping effect and its associated three-dimensional circulation structure. The results show that the PPMI is significantly associated with the atmospheric heat source over the TP. It is also related to the zonal displacement of the South Asian High (SAH) and circulation variations over the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) region. During strong TPSM years, an anomalous anticyclone develops over the TP. This anomaly is accompanied by an eastward displacement of the SAH toward the Tibetan High mode. Meanwhile, upper-tropospheric circulation anomalies favor a reversal of the meridional potential vorticity gradient over the TP-TP. This reversal is accompanied by the bifurcation of the Rossby wave train. Its eastward propagation weakens, and downstream wave-activity energy transport decreases. During strong TPSM years, the atmospheric circulation features an alternating cyclone-anticyclone-cyclone-anticyclone wave train extending from the IP through the TP and Eastern China to the Korean Peninsula (KP). As the TPSM intensifies, alternating anomalous descending and ascending motions develop from Eastern China to the KP. These vertical-motion anomalies further modulate the East Asian Trough and moisture transport over the EASM region. Further analysis of the intraseasonal evolution of TPSM and EASM precipitation shows that the TPSM-related teleconnection has coordinated, stage-dependent intraseasonal variations. In June, its positive phase is characterized by reduced precipitation over eastern China and increased precipitation over the KP and southern Japan, which corresponds to the rapid development of the TPSM. The opposite pattern appears in July and August. This study reveals an important dynamical linkage through which TPSM thermal forcing influences EASM circulation anomalies. The results provide a new perspective for understanding the relationship between the TPSM, the EASM, and sub-seasonal climate variability.","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"72 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2026-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148852694","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mengxin Bai, Peng Zhang, Zihui Yue, Wupeng Du, Bisheng Zhu, Jiali Jiang, Chunyi Xuan
{"title":"AMO-modulated seesaw pattern of compound heatwave-hydrological drought over the Yellow River Basin","authors":"Mengxin Bai, Peng Zhang, Zihui Yue, Wupeng Du, Bisheng Zhu, Jiali Jiang, Chunyi Xuan","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109284","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109284","url":null,"abstract":"Compound heatwave-hydrological drought (HWHD) reflects integrated hydroclimatic anomalies shaped by large-scale circulation over the Yellow River Basin. Unlike widely explored precipitation-based compound events, HWHD has been vastly understudied with unresolved critical scientific gaps. Using ERA5 reanalysis datasets for the period 1981–2020, this study identifies compound HWHD events by integrating daily maximum temperature and the standardized runoff index, and further classifies four spatial patterns using the Self-Organizing Map (SOM) approach. Two leading modes SOM2 and SOM4 for compound HWHD exhibit a west-east seesaw structure in both spatial intensity and temporal frequency. Further analysis via Takaya-Nakamura Rossby wave activity flux indicates that the phase transition of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) closely modulates opposite phases of the Eurasian teleconnection (EU), thereby forcing combined anomalies in horizontal water vapor transport and vertical uplift over the basin. The eXtreme Gradient Boosting algorithm demonstrates significantly higher predictive skill than multiple linear regression in capturing the spatiotemporal characteristics of both SOM2 and SOM4 modes, with notably stronger predictability for SOM4 modulated by stable AMO-EU circulation signals. This study elaborates a complete oceanic forcing-atmospheric teleconnection-local circulation response basin-scale compound HWHD event, and offers important support for the dynamic monitoring and early warning at the basin scale.","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2026-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148852367","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}