Atmospheric Research最新文献

{"title":"Spatiotemporal variations of global precipitation concentration and potential links to flood-drought events in past 70 years","authors":"Jianing Sun ,&nbsp;Huilan Zhang ,&nbsp;Tiezheng Wang ,&nbsp;Yuan Xu ,&nbsp;Can Huang ,&nbsp;Shuyi Dan","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108086","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108086","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The evaluation of precipitation events is crucial for predicting severe droughts and floods, particularly in the context of global warming. This study presents a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of the global precipitation concentration index (CI) from 1950 to 2020, comparing CI with nine extreme precipitation indices to assess its applicability. The world map was divided into three distinct regions related to flood-drought events using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Key findings include: 1) CI exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity, with elevated values in seasonally warm coastlines and arid regions. Seasonal changes in CI were not synchronized, particularly lower in Northern Hemisphere winters, while the Southern Hemisphere displayed minor seasonal variation, alongside a long-term growth trend in approximately 36.5 % of the global area. 2) CI's spatiotemporal variations helped delineating regional precipitation patterns, revealing a strong correlation (R² = 0.87) with the extreme precipitation index R95c, but a negligible relationship with total precipitation (P) (R² = -0.05). This facilitated the global partitioning into three regions: Humidity Amplification Region (I), Dryness Intensification Region (II), and Climate Fluctuation Region (III). 3) Flood-drought events were potentially linked to variations in CI and P, where In Region I experienced increased flood risk due to rising CI and P, Region II faced heightened drought risk from rising CI and declining P, and Region III showed opposing effects on floods due to reduced CI and increased P, with P variability significantly influencing flood frequency. 4) The main atmospheric circulation factors varied by region, typically including the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO), with AAO being most significant. This study highlights the potential of CI in improving the prediction of drought and flood risks, emphasizing the need for enhanced regional data and dynamic modeling to better assess the impacts of climate change on precipitation patterns and hydrological extremes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"321 ","pages":"Article 108086"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143704345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reassessing the ENSO-related Hadley circulation contraction from a regional perspective","authors":"Yujie Miao ,&nbsp;Tao Lian ,&nbsp;Juan Feng ,&nbsp;Yadi Li ,&nbsp;Wenzhu Wang ,&nbsp;Yurong Hou ,&nbsp;Xichen Li","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108085","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108085","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>El Niño event usually intensifies Hadley Circulation (HC), meanwhile reducing its meridional extension. From a global perspective, the width change of HC is associated with the meridional movement of baroclinic instability and eddy activities over the subtropics. However, these hypotheses may not work for regional HC. In this study, we construct the three-dimensional structure of HC and investigate the El Niño-related regional HC variability, focusing on the meridional extension. El Niño is associated with an expansion of HC over the central-eastern Pacific but a contraction over the west. Unlike the global HC, the strengthening (weakening) of regional HC usually coincides with an expansion (contraction). Nevertheless, the “narrow” equatorial intensification over the eastern Pacific and the “widespread” subtropical weakening over the Indo-Western Pacific of regional HC collectively form a strengthening and contraction of global HC. This spatial pattern of regional HC intensity changes is tightly associated with the ENSO-related precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) gradient anomalies. Our result has broad implications for global climate predictability, highlighting the importance of a better understanding of the interactions between the regional HC and tropical/subtropical climate variabilities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"321 ","pages":"Article 108085"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143715898","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On the spatio-temporal coherence of extreme precipitation indices in subtropical Argentina","authors":"Lorenzo Ricetti ,&nbsp;Santiago I. Hurtado ,&nbsp;Eduardo Agosta Scarel","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108082","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108082","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study evaluates the spatio-temporal coherence of regional extreme precipitation indices in subtropical Argentina (STAr) derived from rain gauge station data from 1991 to 2021. For the regionalization two machine learning clustering algorithms are used—Ward's method and K-means—and a novel stepwise regionalization approach, HAZ. While machine learning algorithms require the apriori definition of the optimal number of clusters, which varies considerably with the used metric and selection criteria, the HAZ method relies on a Pearson's correlation coefficient threshold and avoids this limitation. In most cases machine learning algorithms struggled to produce coherent regions, with fewer clusters prioritizing spatial coherence at the expense of temporal consistency, and vice versa. Conversely, the HAZ method systematically outperformed machine learning approaches, providing regions with adequate spatio-temporal coherence. Notably, HAZ permits some stations to remain unclustered, allowing to reflect the local variability in extreme precipitation. The overall good performance of the HAZ method demonstrates its potential for broader applications in hydro-climatic studies. Moreover, two intensity indices were unsuitable for regionalization due to poor coherence, while the other three were prone to regionalization throughout the year. The Accumulated index, particularly using the 95th percentile as a threshold, emerged as the most representative, effectively synthesizing extreme precipitation characteristics in STAr. Finally, the necessity of validating the spatio-temporal internal coherence of clustering algorithms outputs is emphasized to avoid mischaracterization and ensure robust regionalization results.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"320 ","pages":"Article 108082"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679474","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effects of the estimated inversion strength and aerosols on monthly variations of subtropical marine stratocumulus to the west of Africa","authors":"Waren Dale Soriano ,&nbsp;Tra Dinh ,&nbsp;Gilles Bellon","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108078","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108078","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Satellite and reanalysis data over the 2003–2022 period are used to study how the monthly variations of marine stratocumulus (MSc) to the west of Canary Islands and Namibia are influenced by thermodynamic variables and aerosols. Although the estimated inversion strength (EIS) has been thought to be the main predictor of low-cloud cover (LCC), the seasonal cycles of EIS and LCC differ significantly in the Canary MSc region. In linear regression models, adding dust aerosol (DA) optical depth as a predictor improves the prediction of LCC across all seasons and almost everywhere in the region compared to using EIS alone. In boreal summer, large amount of DAs are transported from the Sahara to the Canary MSc region. Analysis of the regression models shows that DAs contribute more than EIS to the Canary summer LCC maximum, reducing the error by up to 11 %. Biomass-burning aerosols (BBAs) also improve the prediction of LCC in the Canary MSc region, but less so than DAs, suggesting that BBAs are less effective as cloud condensation nucleii. Other known thermodynamic predictors of LCC (sea surface temperature, horizontal surface temperature advection, near-surface wind speed, and free-tropospheric relative humidity and vertical velocity) also improve the prediction, but much less effectively than the aerosols. In the Namibia MSc region, there are virtually no DAs but BBAs are abundant. There, EIS alone captures well the seasonal cycle of LCC. In this region, the effect of BBAs on LCC is hidden behind that of EIS, potentially because BBA optical depth and EIS coincidentally have similar seasonal cycles.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"321 ","pages":"Article 108078"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143738169","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Atmospheric deposition of dissolved organic carbon: Magnitude, spatiotemporal pattern and influencing factors","authors":"Jing Cao ,&nbsp;Zhihui Chen ,&nbsp;Shiguo Jia ,&nbsp;Jiawei Li ,&nbsp;Wen Xu ,&nbsp;Yuepeng Pan","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108079","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108079","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Atmospheric deposition of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is not routinely measured in existing observation networks worldwide. This paucity of measurements prevents the comprehensive assessment of the global DOC budget in the atmosphere and is currently a barrier to understanding the vital role of the airborne DOC input to soil and water. In this study, 172 observations of atmospheric DOC deposition at the global scale published between 1985 and 2024 were compiled. Overall, the global geometric mean DOC concentration and flux were 2.03 ± 2.12 mg C L⁻¹ and 18 kg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, respectively, with a global budget of approximately 460 Tg C yr⁻¹. While these values are comparable to those reported in previous global-scale studies, they differ across regions. Spatially, the DOC deposition fluxes observed in Africa, Central America, and South America were 2–7 times greater than those reported in North America, Europe, and Asia, which conforms with the spatial distribution of the annual precipitation in these regions, especially for an annual precipitation greater than 1400 mm. When the annual precipitation is less than 1400 mm, the spatial distribution of atmospheric DOC deposition is also influenced by emissions. Owing to the substantial decline in emissions, atmospheric DOC deposition has declined in North America, Asia, and especially in China over the past 10 years.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"321 ","pages":"Article 108079"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143715702","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Identification and characteristics of regional rainstorm events in China based on a dual-threshold method","authors":"Siyuan Dai,&nbsp;Qi Zhang,&nbsp;Shaofeng Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108081","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108081","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Regional extreme precipitation can cause severe flooding with major environmental and social impacts. While most existing studies either ignored their spatiotemporally contiguous or abnormally break down the events with multiple rainstorm cores, rapid movement, or transient interruptions into multiple isolated fragments. Here, we propose a novel approach for identifying regional rainstorm events (RREs), which integrates dual-threshold with a three-dimensional (longitude, latitude, and time) image connectivity perspective. There were 1163 RREs identified across mainland China from 1991 to 2022 based on the CN05.1 dataset. The spatial, temporal, and movement patterns of RREs were analyzed. Results showed that 71.2 % of RREs lasted only one day, with intensity mostly around 60–70 mm/day. The cumulative magnitude of RREs was most positively correlated with its affected area (<em>r</em> = 0.95). The occurrence frequency of RREs had a significant upward trend during 1991–2022, approximately increased 2.7 events per decade, while the severity slightly declined. Spatially, the highest frequencies of RREs were observed in southeastern China. Based on the movement direction and distance, RREs were classified into four patterns: Eastward Moving, Southwestward Moving, Localized, and Northward Moving. Northward Moving RREs exhibited the largest affected area, the greatest cumulative magnitude, and the longest movement distance, followed by Eastward Moving RREs. Localized RREs had the shortest duration, the smallest affected area and movement distance, but the highest intensity (averaging 92.6 mm/day). Our findings provide new insights for understanding the characteristics of regional extreme precipitation and their driving mechanisms, which are valuable for forecasting and adapting to the resultant disasters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"320 ","pages":"Article 108081"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143672854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Corrigendum to “Integrated water vapor over the Arctic: Comparison between radiosondes and sun photometer observations” [Atmospheric Research 270 (2022) 1–9 /106059]","authors":"Juan Carlos Antuña-Marrero ,&nbsp;Roberto Román ,&nbsp;Victoria E. Cachorroa ,&nbsp;David Mateos ,&nbsp;Carlos Toledano ,&nbsp;Abel Calle ,&nbsp;Juan Carlos Antuña-Sánchez ,&nbsp;Ramiro Gonzalez ,&nbsp;Manuel Antón ,&nbsp;Javier Vaquero-Martínez ,&nbsp;Ángel M. de Frutos Baraja","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108072","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108072","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"320 ","pages":"Article 108072"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143716239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Understanding the driving mechanism for heat waves variability over South Asia during El Niño and La Niña events","authors":"Gayatri Prasad Adhikari ,&nbsp;Geli Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108076","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108076","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study focuses on heat waves (HWs) variability over South Asia (SA) influenced by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during 1950–2023. The influence factor and driving mechanism for HWs variability over SA in the El Niño and La Niña years are discussed. We observe positive composite anomalies of HWs events and frequency over the north-western region of SA in La Niña years but negative composite anomalies in El Niño years. In La Niña years, outgoing long-wave radiation (total cloud cover) over the north-western region of SA has positive (negative) anomalies. Thus, less cloud cover regions allow more solar radiation to increase the surface temperature and HWs. During La Niña years, positive composite anomalies of HWs over the north-western region of SA are mainly due to positive anomalies of outgoing long wave radiation, negative anomalies of total cloud cover, positive anomalies of soil temperature level 1, negative anomalies of relative humidity, positive anomalies of short-wave radiation and negative anomalies of long-wave radiation. However, during El Niño years, negative composite anomalies of HWs over the north-western region of SA are due to negative anomalies of outgoing long wave radiation, positive anomalies of total cloud cover, and negative anomalies of direct solar radiation. During El Niño years, vertical-latitude cross-section and vertical-longitude cross-section analysis show significant positive anomalies of air temperature, positive anomalies of vertical velocity, negative anomalies of relative humidity, and positive anomalies of geopotential height; support increases in the HWs over the southern and central -eastern region of SA. These findings give important insights into how future weather patterns may evolve during ENSO events and can contribute to early forecasting and making heat wave adaptation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"321 ","pages":"Article 108076"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143715701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of the CMIP6 models for simulating the trend of the Barents-Kara Sea compound heatwaves in boreal autumn","authors":"Yue Xin ,&nbsp;Wenting Hu ,&nbsp;Anmin Duan ,&nbsp;Bin Tang ,&nbsp;Yuheng Tang","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108077","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108077","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Compound heatwaves (CHWs) pose more severe environmental and socio-economic risks than individual heatwave events, with their frequency increasing rapidly worldwide. In the Arctic, particularly the Barents–Kara Sea (BKS), CHWs are intensifying, accelerating ice melt, permafrost thaw, and ecosystem disruptions. Accurate climate projections require a robust assessment of climate models' ability to simulate these extreme events. This study evaluates the performance of 24 CMIP6 models in reproducing autumn CHW trends in the BKS, revealing substantial intermodel discrepancies in trend magnitudes and spatial patterns. The observed BKS regional CHW trend is 0.55 events per decade. Group A models (e.g., ACCESS-CM2, CanESM5, GFDL-CM4) exhibit smaller errors, with a mean absolute bias of −0.03 events per decade, while Group B models (e.g., FGOALS-g3, GFDL-ESM4, MIROC6) show larger discrepancies, with a mean absolute bias of −0.40 events per decade. Further analysis reveals that Group A models better simulate the enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic to the BKS, a key driver of CHWs, with smaller deviations in latent heat flux and net longwave radiation. The results highlight the significant role of water vapor in the occurrence of CHWs and suggest that improving the representation of these processes could enhance the accuracy of future Arctic CHW projections. This study underscores the importance of model evaluation for improving climate predictions and understanding the dynamics of extreme heat events in high-latitude regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"320 ","pages":"Article 108077"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143672855","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"“Roller coaster”-type temperature fluctuations in China in 2024 winter and the asymmetric influence from the Polar front jet","authors":"Ting Ding,&nbsp;Hui Gao,&nbsp;Xiang Li","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108060","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108060","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Notable “roller coaster”-type temperature fluctuations occurred in the 2024 winter in China though the seasonal mean temperature displayed a normal value. The standard deviation of daily temperature anomalies broke the highest record since 1961. By adopting an objective definition of the “roller coaster”-type temperature fluctuation, 19 events of such occurrences are observed during 1981–2024, four of which occurred in the 2024 winter. Corresponds to the temperature fluctuations in the winter, the Siberian high exhibits a synchronous variation, with significantly greater intensities in the three cold spells and considerably weaker values in the three warm spells. In contrast, the Polar front jet displays an asymmetric influence, with significantly enhanced zonal wind speeds in warm spells, while normal intensity in cold spells. The statistical results for each of the 45-day warm and cold groups in the current winter also support this conclusion.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"321 ","pages":"Article 108060"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143725068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}