基于CMIP6模式的西北地区降水再循环未来变化

IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Ping Wu , Xiucang Li , Yanju Liu , Ying Xu , Yihui Ding
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引用次数: 0

摘要

利用ERA5再分析数据,评价了1995-2014年11个CMIP6全球气候模式对西北地区水循环分量的模拟能力。结果表明,CMIP6集合有效捕获降水、降水再循环比(ρ)和内外循环降水的时空格局。随后的分析将SSP1-2.6(低排放)和SSP5-8.5(高排放)情景下(2021 - 2100)的预估水文变化与历史基线进行了比较。结果表明,在SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5模式下,NWC的降水增长率分别为0.52% / a和3.12% / a,未来气候将更加湿润。21世纪初(2021-2040年)增长最快,21世纪中期(2041-2060年)增速放缓。到本世纪末(2081-2100),SSP1-2.6条件下降水减少,ssp5 - 8.5条件下降水回升,最大增湿区集中在NWC中部。关于降水再循环率(ρ),在SSP1-2.6下,NWC的总体速率预计波动在±5%以内。相比之下,在SSP5-8.5下,预计将呈现波动下降趋势,每十年下降1.04%,到21世纪末将比基准期低近5.1%。这表明在高排放条件下,内部循环逐渐减弱。ρ在空间上分布极不均匀。由于蒸发量的异常增强,预计NWC中部地区的内循环将显著增强,而其他地区的内循环将随着时间的推移逐渐减弱。未来降水的增加主要来自内外循环的共同作用,但主要是由外循环降水(Po)的变化驱动的。在高排放情景下,外部循环的贡献逐渐增加,而内部循环的贡献逐渐减弱。这表明,随着气候变暖的加速,由于无效蒸发的增加,NWC地区冰川和融雪的快速消融可能导致内部循环由加强到减弱的转变。即使将来绝对降水增加,额外的水分也可能被无效的蒸发所抵消,使其难以转化为可用的水资源。这对NWC未来的水资源管理提出了严峻的挑战。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Future changes of precipitation recycling over Northwest China by CMIP6 models
This study evaluates the simulation capabilities of 11 CMIP6 global climate models for hydrological cycle components in Northwest China (NWC) during 1995–2014, utilizing ERA5 reanalysis data for validation. Results demonstrate that the CMIP6 ensemble effectively captures spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation, precipitation recycling ratio (ρ), and internal/external cycling precipitation. Subsequent analysis compares projected hydrological changes under SSP1–2.6 (low-emission) and SSP5–8.5 (high-emission) scenarios (2021−2100) against the historical baseline. The findings suggest that NWC is projected to experience a wetter climate in the future, with precipitation increase rates of 0.52 % per decade under the SSP1–2.6 and 3.12 % per decade under the SSP5–8.5. The most rapid intensification occurs in the early 21st century (2021–2040), followed by mid-21st century (2041–2060) deceleration in the growth rate. By the end of the century (2081–2100), precipitation declines under SSP1–2.6 but resurges under SSPP5–8.5, with maximum moistening concentrated in central NWC. Regarding the precipitation recycling rate (ρ), the overall rate in NWC is projected to fluctuate within ±5 % under the SSP1–2.6. In contrast, it is expected to exhibit a fluctuating downward trend under the SSP5–8.5, decreasing by 1.04 % per decade and reaching nearly 5.1 % lower than the baseline period by the end of the 21st century. This indicates progressive weakening of internal cycling under high emissions. Spatially, the distribution of ρ is highly uneven. The internal cycle is expected to increase significantly in the central region of NWC due to the abnormal enhancement of evaporation, while it will gradually weaken over time in other regions. Future precipitation increases primarily derive from the combined effects of internal and external cycling, but is primarily driven by changes in external cycling precipitation (Po) through enhanced moisture transport. Moreover, under the high emission scenario, the contribution from external cycling demonstrates progressive increase, while internal cycling exhibits gradually weaken. This suggests that as climate warming accelerates in NWC, the rapid ablation of glaciers and snowmelt may lead to a transition from strengthening to weakening of the internal cycle because of the increasing ineffective evaporation. Even if the absolute precipitation increases in the future, the additional moisture may be offset by ineffective evaporation, making it difficult to convert into usable water resources. This poses a severe challenge for future water resource management in NWC.
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来源期刊
Atmospheric Research
Atmospheric Research 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
9.40
自引率
10.90%
发文量
460
审稿时长
47 days
期刊介绍: The journal publishes scientific papers (research papers, review articles, letters and notes) dealing with the part of the atmosphere where meteorological events occur. Attention is given to all processes extending from the earth surface to the tropopause, but special emphasis continues to be devoted to the physics of clouds, mesoscale meteorology and air pollution, i.e. atmospheric aerosols; microphysical processes; cloud dynamics and thermodynamics; numerical simulation, climatology, climate change and weather modification.
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