Ping Wu , Xiucang Li , Yanju Liu , Ying Xu , Yihui Ding
{"title":"基于CMIP6模式的西北地区降水再循环未来变化","authors":"Ping Wu , Xiucang Li , Yanju Liu , Ying Xu , Yihui Ding","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108437","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study evaluates the simulation capabilities of 11 CMIP6 global climate models for hydrological cycle components in Northwest China (NWC) during 1995–2014, utilizing ERA5 reanalysis data for validation. Results demonstrate that the CMIP6 ensemble effectively captures spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation, precipitation recycling ratio (ρ), and internal/external cycling precipitation. Subsequent analysis compares projected hydrological changes under SSP1–2.6 (low-emission) and SSP5–8.5 (high-emission) scenarios (2021−2100) against the historical baseline. The findings suggest that NWC is projected to experience a wetter climate in the future, with precipitation increase rates of 0.52 % per decade under the SSP1–2.6 and 3.12 % per decade under the SSP5–8.5. The most rapid intensification occurs in the early 21st century (2021–2040), followed by mid-21st century (2041–2060) deceleration in the growth rate. By the end of the century (2081–2100), precipitation declines under SSP1–2.6 but resurges under SSPP5–8.5, with maximum moistening concentrated in central NWC. Regarding the precipitation recycling rate (ρ), the overall rate in NWC is projected to fluctuate within ±5 % under the SSP1–2.6. In contrast, it is expected to exhibit a fluctuating downward trend under the SSP5–8.5, decreasing by 1.04 % per decade and reaching nearly 5.1 % lower than the baseline period by the end of the 21st century. This indicates progressive weakening of internal cycling under high emissions. Spatially, the distribution of ρ is highly uneven. The internal cycle is expected to increase significantly in the central region of NWC due to the abnormal enhancement of evaporation, while it will gradually weaken over time in other regions. Future precipitation increases primarily derive from the combined effects of internal and external cycling, but is primarily driven by changes in external cycling precipitation (P<sub>o</sub>) through enhanced moisture transport. Moreover, under the high emission scenario, the contribution from external cycling demonstrates progressive increase, while internal cycling exhibits gradually weaken. This suggests that as climate warming accelerates in NWC, the rapid ablation of glaciers and snowmelt may lead to a transition from strengthening to weakening of the internal cycle because of the increasing ineffective evaporation. Even if the absolute precipitation increases in the future, the additional moisture may be offset by ineffective evaporation, making it difficult to convert into usable water resources. This poses a severe challenge for future water resource management in NWC.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"328 ","pages":"Article 108437"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4000,"publicationDate":"2025-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Future changes of precipitation recycling over Northwest China by CMIP6 models\",\"authors\":\"Ping Wu , Xiucang Li , Yanju Liu , Ying Xu , Yihui Ding\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108437\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>This study evaluates the simulation capabilities of 11 CMIP6 global climate models for hydrological cycle components in Northwest China (NWC) during 1995–2014, utilizing ERA5 reanalysis data for validation. Results demonstrate that the CMIP6 ensemble effectively captures spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation, precipitation recycling ratio (ρ), and internal/external cycling precipitation. Subsequent analysis compares projected hydrological changes under SSP1–2.6 (low-emission) and SSP5–8.5 (high-emission) scenarios (2021−2100) against the historical baseline. The findings suggest that NWC is projected to experience a wetter climate in the future, with precipitation increase rates of 0.52 % per decade under the SSP1–2.6 and 3.12 % per decade under the SSP5–8.5. The most rapid intensification occurs in the early 21st century (2021–2040), followed by mid-21st century (2041–2060) deceleration in the growth rate. By the end of the century (2081–2100), precipitation declines under SSP1–2.6 but resurges under SSPP5–8.5, with maximum moistening concentrated in central NWC. Regarding the precipitation recycling rate (ρ), the overall rate in NWC is projected to fluctuate within ±5 % under the SSP1–2.6. In contrast, it is expected to exhibit a fluctuating downward trend under the SSP5–8.5, decreasing by 1.04 % per decade and reaching nearly 5.1 % lower than the baseline period by the end of the 21st century. This indicates progressive weakening of internal cycling under high emissions. Spatially, the distribution of ρ is highly uneven. The internal cycle is expected to increase significantly in the central region of NWC due to the abnormal enhancement of evaporation, while it will gradually weaken over time in other regions. Future precipitation increases primarily derive from the combined effects of internal and external cycling, but is primarily driven by changes in external cycling precipitation (P<sub>o</sub>) through enhanced moisture transport. Moreover, under the high emission scenario, the contribution from external cycling demonstrates progressive increase, while internal cycling exhibits gradually weaken. This suggests that as climate warming accelerates in NWC, the rapid ablation of glaciers and snowmelt may lead to a transition from strengthening to weakening of the internal cycle because of the increasing ineffective evaporation. Even if the absolute precipitation increases in the future, the additional moisture may be offset by ineffective evaporation, making it difficult to convert into usable water resources. This poses a severe challenge for future water resource management in NWC.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":8600,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Atmospheric Research\",\"volume\":\"328 \",\"pages\":\"Article 108437\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-08-15\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Atmospheric Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809525005290\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Atmospheric Research","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809525005290","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Future changes of precipitation recycling over Northwest China by CMIP6 models
This study evaluates the simulation capabilities of 11 CMIP6 global climate models for hydrological cycle components in Northwest China (NWC) during 1995–2014, utilizing ERA5 reanalysis data for validation. Results demonstrate that the CMIP6 ensemble effectively captures spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation, precipitation recycling ratio (ρ), and internal/external cycling precipitation. Subsequent analysis compares projected hydrological changes under SSP1–2.6 (low-emission) and SSP5–8.5 (high-emission) scenarios (2021−2100) against the historical baseline. The findings suggest that NWC is projected to experience a wetter climate in the future, with precipitation increase rates of 0.52 % per decade under the SSP1–2.6 and 3.12 % per decade under the SSP5–8.5. The most rapid intensification occurs in the early 21st century (2021–2040), followed by mid-21st century (2041–2060) deceleration in the growth rate. By the end of the century (2081–2100), precipitation declines under SSP1–2.6 but resurges under SSPP5–8.5, with maximum moistening concentrated in central NWC. Regarding the precipitation recycling rate (ρ), the overall rate in NWC is projected to fluctuate within ±5 % under the SSP1–2.6. In contrast, it is expected to exhibit a fluctuating downward trend under the SSP5–8.5, decreasing by 1.04 % per decade and reaching nearly 5.1 % lower than the baseline period by the end of the 21st century. This indicates progressive weakening of internal cycling under high emissions. Spatially, the distribution of ρ is highly uneven. The internal cycle is expected to increase significantly in the central region of NWC due to the abnormal enhancement of evaporation, while it will gradually weaken over time in other regions. Future precipitation increases primarily derive from the combined effects of internal and external cycling, but is primarily driven by changes in external cycling precipitation (Po) through enhanced moisture transport. Moreover, under the high emission scenario, the contribution from external cycling demonstrates progressive increase, while internal cycling exhibits gradually weaken. This suggests that as climate warming accelerates in NWC, the rapid ablation of glaciers and snowmelt may lead to a transition from strengthening to weakening of the internal cycle because of the increasing ineffective evaporation. Even if the absolute precipitation increases in the future, the additional moisture may be offset by ineffective evaporation, making it difficult to convert into usable water resources. This poses a severe challenge for future water resource management in NWC.
期刊介绍:
The journal publishes scientific papers (research papers, review articles, letters and notes) dealing with the part of the atmosphere where meteorological events occur. Attention is given to all processes extending from the earth surface to the tropopause, but special emphasis continues to be devoted to the physics of clouds, mesoscale meteorology and air pollution, i.e. atmospheric aerosols; microphysical processes; cloud dynamics and thermodynamics; numerical simulation, climatology, climate change and weather modification.