Joel Towers, Robin Leichenko, Christian Braneon, Deborah Balk, Liv Yoon, Gernot Wagner, Jennifer Ventrella, John Kuo Wei Tchen, Bernice Rosenzweig, Philip Orton, Luis Ortiz, Richard Moss, Franco Montalto, Timon McPhearson, Katherine McComas, Peter Marcotullio, Thomas Matte, Nicole Maher, Kim Knowlton, Radley Horton, Sheila Foster, Daniel Bader, Ana Baptista
{"title":"NPCC4: Climate risk and equity—advancing knowledge toward a sustainable future | Conclusions","authors":"Joel Towers, Robin Leichenko, Christian Braneon, Deborah Balk, Liv Yoon, Gernot Wagner, Jennifer Ventrella, John Kuo Wei Tchen, Bernice Rosenzweig, Philip Orton, Luis Ortiz, Richard Moss, Franco Montalto, Timon McPhearson, Katherine McComas, Peter Marcotullio, Thomas Matte, Nicole Maher, Kim Knowlton, Radley Horton, Sheila Foster, Daniel Bader, Ana Baptista","doi":"10.1111/nyas.15150","DOIUrl":"10.1111/nyas.15150","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This chapter provides an overview of the major themes, findings, and recommendations from NPCC4. It presents summary statements from each chapter of the assessment which identify salient and pressing issues raised and provides recommendations for future research and for enhancement of climate resiliency. The chapter also outlines a set of broader recommendations for future NPCC work and identifies some key topics for the next assessment.</p>","PeriodicalId":8250,"journal":{"name":"Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences","volume":"1539 1","pages":"323-334"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/nyas.15150","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142003470","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Bernice Rosenzweig, Franco A. Montalto, Philip Orton, Joel Kaatz, Nicole Maher, Jerry Kleyman, Ziyu Chen, Eric Sanderson, Nirajan Adhikari, Timon McPhearson, Pablo Herreros-Cantis
{"title":"NPCC4: Climate change and New York City's flood risk","authors":"Bernice Rosenzweig, Franco A. Montalto, Philip Orton, Joel Kaatz, Nicole Maher, Jerry Kleyman, Ziyu Chen, Eric Sanderson, Nirajan Adhikari, Timon McPhearson, Pablo Herreros-Cantis","doi":"10.1111/nyas.15175","DOIUrl":"10.1111/nyas.15175","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This chapter of the New York City Panel on Climate Change 4 (NPCC4) report provides a comprehensive description of the different types of flood hazards (pluvial, fluvial, coastal, groundwater, and compound) facing New York City and provides climatological context that can be utilized, along with climate change projections, to support flood risk management (FRM). Previous NPCC reports documented coastal flood hazards and presented trends in historical and future precipitation and sea level but did not comprehensively assess all the city's flood hazards. Previous NPCC reports also discussed the implications of floods on infrastructure and the city's residents but did not review the impacts of flooding on the city's natural and nature-based systems (NNBSs). This—the NPCC's first report focused on all drivers of flooding—describes and profiles historical examples of each type of flood and summarizes previous and ongoing research regarding exposure, vulnerability, and risk management, including with NNBS and nonstructural measures.</p>","PeriodicalId":8250,"journal":{"name":"Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences","volume":"1539 1","pages":"127-184"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/nyas.15175","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142003469","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Carlos Gómez-Martínez, Nancy Babio, Lucía Camacho-Barcia, Jordi Júlvez, Stephanie K. Nishi, Zenaida Vázquez, Laura Forcano, Andrea Álvarez-Sala, Aida Cuenca-Royo, Rafael de la Torre, Marta Fanlo-Maresma, Susanna Tello, Dolores Corella, Alejandro Arias Vásquez, Søren Dalsgaard, Barbara Franke, Fernando Fernández-Aranda, Jordi Salas-Salvadó
{"title":"Glycated hemoglobin, type 2 diabetes, and poor diabetes control are positively associated with impulsivity changes in aged individuals with overweight or obesity and metabolic syndrome","authors":"Carlos Gómez-Martínez, Nancy Babio, Lucía Camacho-Barcia, Jordi Júlvez, Stephanie K. Nishi, Zenaida Vázquez, Laura Forcano, Andrea Álvarez-Sala, Aida Cuenca-Royo, Rafael de la Torre, Marta Fanlo-Maresma, Susanna Tello, Dolores Corella, Alejandro Arias Vásquez, Søren Dalsgaard, Barbara Franke, Fernando Fernández-Aranda, Jordi Salas-Salvadó","doi":"10.1111/nyas.15205","DOIUrl":"10.1111/nyas.15205","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Impulsivity has been proposed to have an impact on glycemic dysregulation. However, it remains uncertain whether an unfavorable glycemic status could also contribute to an increase in impulsivity levels. This study aims to analyze associations of baseline and time-varying glycemic status with 3-year time-varying impulsivity in older adults at high risk of cardiovascular disease. A 3-year prospective cohort design was conducted within the PREDIMED-Plus-Cognition substudy. The total population includes 487 participants (mean age = 65.2 years; female = 50.5%) with overweight or obesity and metabolic syndrome. Insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), presence of type 2 diabetes mellitus, and type 2 diabetes control were evaluated. Impulsivity was measured using the Impulsive Behavior Scale questionnaire and various cognitive measurements. Impulsivity z-scores were generated to obtain Global, Trait, and Behavioral Impulsivity domains. Linear mixed models were used to study the longitudinal associations across baseline, 1-year, and 3-year follow-up visits. HOMA-IR was not significantly related to impulsivity. Participants with higher HbA1c levels, type 2 diabetes, and poor control of diabetes showed positive associations with the Global Impulsivity domain over time, and those with higher HbA1c levels were further related to increases in the Trait and Behavioral Impulsivity domains over the follow-up visits. These results suggest a potential positive feedback loop between impulsivity and glycemic-related dysregulation.</p>","PeriodicalId":8250,"journal":{"name":"Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences","volume":"1540 1","pages":"211-224"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/nyas.15205","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141992253","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Marina B. Blanco, Lydia K. Greene, Kay H. Welser, Erin E. Ehmke, Anne D. Yoder, Peter H. Klopfer
{"title":"Primate hibernation: The past, present, and promise of captive dwarf lemurs","authors":"Marina B. Blanco, Lydia K. Greene, Kay H. Welser, Erin E. Ehmke, Anne D. Yoder, Peter H. Klopfer","doi":"10.1111/nyas.15206","DOIUrl":"10.1111/nyas.15206","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The dwarf lemurs (<i>Cheirogaleus</i> spp.) of Madagascar are the only obligate hibernators among primates. Despite century-old field accounts of seasonal lethargy, and more recent evidence of hibernation in the western fat-tailed dwarf lemur (<i>Cheirogaleus medius</i>), inducing hibernation in captivity remained elusive for decades. This included the Duke Lemur Center (DLC), which maintains fat-tailed dwarf lemurs and has produced sporadic research on reproduction and metabolism. With cumulative knowledge from the field, a newly robust colony, and better infrastructure, we recently induced hibernation in DLC dwarf lemurs. We describe two follow-up experiments in subsequent years. First, we show that dwarf lemurs under stable cold conditions (13°C) with available food continued to eat daily, expressed shallower and shorter torpor bouts, and had a modified gut microbiome compared to peers without food. Second, we demonstrate that dwarf lemurs under fluctuating temperatures (12–30°C) can passively rewarm daily, which was associated with altered patterns of fat depletion and reduced oxidative stress. Despite the limitations of working with endangered primates, we highlight the promise of studying hibernation in captive dwarf lemurs. Follow-up studies on genomics and epigenetics, metabolism, and endocrinology could have relevance across multidisciplinary fields, from biomedicine to evolutionary biology, and conservation.</p>","PeriodicalId":8250,"journal":{"name":"Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences","volume":"1540 1","pages":"178-190"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141974994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mahum Khizar, Julie Ruel-Bergeron, Eleonor Zavala, Karen Chang, Yunhee Kang, Saskia de Pee, Robert E. Black, Parul Christian
{"title":"Delivery platforms for reaching adolescents with nutrition interventions in low- and middle-income countries","authors":"Mahum Khizar, Julie Ruel-Bergeron, Eleonor Zavala, Karen Chang, Yunhee Kang, Saskia de Pee, Robert E. Black, Parul Christian","doi":"10.1111/nyas.15196","DOIUrl":"10.1111/nyas.15196","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Adolescents in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are a vulnerable population given increased nutritional needs as puberty approaches. School-based nutrition programs exist in some settings, but the comprehensive provision of nutrition services requires knowledge of the mechanisms to reach out-of-school adolescents. A comprehensive scoping review was performed using formal and informal search strategies to landscape all potential delivery platforms with nutrition services to reach adolescents. Peer-reviewed studies, institutional strategies, program evaluations, and programmatic reports in LMICs were reviewed, including gray literature. A total of 87 out of 270 identified publications and reports describing nutrition programs for adolescents were identified. Although nutrition programs targeted at adolescents were sparse, various innovative and inclusive delivery platforms were included, such as school feeding programs, school-based anemia control, and nutrition-friendly school initiatives; health facility–based, youth-friendly health and nutrition services; social safety nets targeted at adolescents; community-based approaches targeting youth development and peer education within youth centers and faith-based settings; and technology-based platforms, including digital health services and mass media communication sensitization and mobilization efforts. Existing delivery mechanisms and platforms in health and other sectors that target adolescents offer great potential to extend nutrition interventions to this vulnerable yet hard-to-reach population.</p>","PeriodicalId":8250,"journal":{"name":"Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences","volume":"1538 1","pages":"71-84"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141904205","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ignacio Obeso, Francis R. Loayza, Rafael González-Redondo, Federico Villagra, Elkin Luis, Marjan Jahanshahi, José A. Obeso, Maria A. Pastor
{"title":"The causal role of the subthalamic nucleus in the inhibitory network","authors":"Ignacio Obeso, Francis R. Loayza, Rafael González-Redondo, Federico Villagra, Elkin Luis, Marjan Jahanshahi, José A. Obeso, Maria A. Pastor","doi":"10.1111/nyas.15193","DOIUrl":"10.1111/nyas.15193","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The neural network mediating successful response inhibition mainly includes right hemisphere activation of the pre-supplementary motor area, inferior frontal gyrus (IFG), subthalamic nucleus (STN), and caudate nucleus. However, the causal role of these regions in the inhibitory network is undefined. Five patients with Parkinson's disease were assessed prior to and after therapeutic thermal ablation of the right STN in two separate functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) sessions while performing a stop-signal task. Initiation times were faster but motor inhibition with the left hand (contralateral to the lesion) was significantly impaired as evident in prolonged stop-signal reaction times. Reduced inhibition after right subthalamotomy was associated (during successful inhibition) with the recruitment of basal ganglia regions outside the established inhibitory network. They included the putamen and caudate together with the anterior cingulate cortex and IFG of the left hemisphere. Subsequent network connectivity analysis (with the seed over the nonlesioned left STN) revealed a new inhibitory network after right subthalamotomies. Our results highlight the causal role of the right STN in the neural network for motor inhibition and the possible basal ganglia mechanisms for compensation upon losing a key node of the inhibition network.</p>","PeriodicalId":8250,"journal":{"name":"Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences","volume":"1538 1","pages":"117-128"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/nyas.15193","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141905770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Hazal Yildiz, Olivia Heise, Ben Gerhardt, Guido Fritsch, Rolf Becker, Andreas Ochs, Florian Sicks, Peter Buss, Lin-Mari de Klerk-Lorist, Thomas Hildebrandt, Michael Brecht
{"title":"Macrovibrissae and microvibrissae inversion and lateralization in elephants","authors":"Hazal Yildiz, Olivia Heise, Ben Gerhardt, Guido Fritsch, Rolf Becker, Andreas Ochs, Florian Sicks, Peter Buss, Lin-Mari de Klerk-Lorist, Thomas Hildebrandt, Michael Brecht","doi":"10.1111/nyas.15194","DOIUrl":"10.1111/nyas.15194","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Elephants are known for strongly lateralized trunk behaviors, but the mechanisms driving elephant lateralization are poorly understood. Here, we investigate features of elephant mouth organization that presumably promote lateralization. We find the lower jaw of elephants is of narrow width, but is rostrally strongly elongated even beyond the jaw bone. Elephant lip vibrissae become progressively longer rostrally. Thus, elephants have two lateral dense, short microvibrissae arrays and central, less dense long macrovibrissae. This is an inversion of the ancestral mammalian facial vibrissae pattern, where central, dense short microvibrissae are flanked by two lateral macrovibrissae arrays. Elephant microvibrissae have smaller follicles than macrovibrissae. Similar to trunk-tip vibrissae, elephant lip microvibrissae show laterally asymmetric abrasion. Observations on Asian zoo elephants indicate lateralized abrasion results from lateralized feeding. It appears that the ancestral mammalian mouth (upper and lower lips, incisors, frontal microvibrissae) is shaped by oral food apprehension. The elephant mouth organization radically changed, however, because trunk-mediated feeding replaced oral apprehension. Such elephant mouth changes include the upper lip–nose fusion to the trunk, the super-flexible elongated lower jaw, the loss of incisors, and lateral rather than frontal microvibrissae. Elephants’ specialization for lateral food insertion is reflected by the reduction in the centering effects of oral food apprehension and lip vibrissae patterns.</p>","PeriodicalId":8250,"journal":{"name":"Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences","volume":"1538 1","pages":"85-97"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/nyas.15194","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141888372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Guillermo J. Amador, Brett Klaassen van Oorschot, Uddalok Sen, Benjamin Karman, Rutger Leenders
{"title":"Capillary adhesion of stick insects","authors":"Guillermo J. Amador, Brett Klaassen van Oorschot, Uddalok Sen, Benjamin Karman, Rutger Leenders","doi":"10.1111/nyas.15195","DOIUrl":"10.1111/nyas.15195","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Scientific progress within the last few decades has revealed the functional morphology of an insect's sticky footpads—a compliant pad that secretes thin liquid films. However, the physico-chemical mechanisms underlying their adhesion remain elusive. Here, we explore these underlying mechanisms by simultaneously measuring adhesive force and contact geometry of the adhesive footpads of live, tethered Indian stick insects, <i>Carausius morosus</i>, spanning more than two orders of magnitude in body mass. We find that the adhesive force we measure is similar to the previous measurements that use a centrifuge. Our measurements afford us the opportunity to directly probe the adhesive stress in vivo and use existing theory on capillary adhesion to predict the surface tension of the secreted liquid and compare it to previous assumptions. From our predictions, we find that the surface tension required to generate the adhesive stresses we observed ranges between 0.68 and 12 mN <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <msup>\u0000 <mi>m</mi>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>−</mo>\u0000 <mn>1</mn>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 </msup>\u0000 <annotation>${rm m}^{-1}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>. The low surface tension of the liquid would enhance the wetting of the stick insect's footpads and promote their ability to conform to various substrates. Our insights may inform the biomimetic design of capillary-based, reversible adhesives and motivate future studies on the physico-chemical properties of the secreted liquid.</p>","PeriodicalId":8250,"journal":{"name":"Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences","volume":"1538 1","pages":"98-106"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/nyas.15195","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141874035","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Maria Goncharova, Yannick Jadoul, Colleen Reichmuth, W. Tecumseh Fitch, Andrea Ravignani
{"title":"Vocal tract dynamics shape the formant structure of conditioned vocalizations in a harbor seal","authors":"Maria Goncharova, Yannick Jadoul, Colleen Reichmuth, W. Tecumseh Fitch, Andrea Ravignani","doi":"10.1111/nyas.15189","DOIUrl":"10.1111/nyas.15189","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Formants, or resonance frequencies of the upper vocal tract, are an essential part of acoustic communication. Articulatory gestures—such as jaw, tongue, lip, and soft palate movements—shape formant structure in human vocalizations, but little is known about how nonhuman mammals use those gestures to modify formant frequencies. Here, we report a case study with an adult male harbor seal trained to produce an arbitrary vocalization composed of multiple repetitions of the sound <i>wa</i>. We analyzed jaw movements frame-by-frame and matched them to the tracked formant modulation in the corresponding vocalizations. We found that the jaw opening angle was strongly correlated with the first (F1) and, to a lesser degree, with the second formant (F2). F2 variation was better explained by the jaw angle opening when the seal was lying on his back rather than on the belly, which might derive from soft tissue displacement due to gravity. These results show that harbor seals share some common articulatory traits with humans, where the F1 depends more on the jaw position than F2. We propose further in vivo investigations of seals to further test the role of the tongue on formant modulation in mammalian sound production.</p>","PeriodicalId":8250,"journal":{"name":"Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences","volume":"1538 1","pages":"107-116"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/nyas.15189","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141874036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Carmelo Juez, Vera Potopová, Boris Boincean, Conor Murphy, Fernando Domínguez-Castro, Lars Eklundh, Dhais Peña-Angulo, Ivan Noguera, Hongxiao Jin, Tobias Conradt, Ricardo Garcia-Herrera, Jose Manuel Garrido-Perez, David Barriopedro, Jose M. Gutiérrez, Maialen Iturbide, Jorge Lorenzo-Lacruz, Ahmed El Kenawy
{"title":"Drought risk in Moldova under global warming and possible crop adaptation strategies","authors":"Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Carmelo Juez, Vera Potopová, Boris Boincean, Conor Murphy, Fernando Domínguez-Castro, Lars Eklundh, Dhais Peña-Angulo, Ivan Noguera, Hongxiao Jin, Tobias Conradt, Ricardo Garcia-Herrera, Jose Manuel Garrido-Perez, David Barriopedro, Jose M. Gutiérrez, Maialen Iturbide, Jorge Lorenzo-Lacruz, Ahmed El Kenawy","doi":"10.1111/nyas.15201","DOIUrl":"10.1111/nyas.15201","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study analyzes the relationship between drought processes and crop yields in Moldova, together with the effects of possible future climate change on crops. The severity of drought is analyzed over time in Moldova using the Standard Precipitation Index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and their relationship with crop yields. In addition, rainfall variability and its relationship with crop yields are examined using spectral analysis and squared wavelet coherence. Observed station data (1950–2020 and 1850–2020), ERA5 reanalysis data (1950–2020), and climate model simulations (period 1970–2100) are used. Crop yield data (maize, sunflower, grape), data from experimental plots (wheat), and the Enhanced Vegetation Index from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellites were also used. Results show that although the severity of meteorological droughts has decreased in the last 170 years, the impact of precipitation deficits on different crop yields has increased, concurrent with a sharp increase in temperature, which negatively affected crop yields. Annual crops are now more vulnerable to natural rainfall variability and, in years characterized by rainfall deficits, the possibility of reductions in crop yield increases due to sharp increases in temperature. Projections reveal a pessimistic outlook in the absence of adaptation, highlighting the urgency of developing new agricultural management strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":8250,"journal":{"name":"Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences","volume":"1538 1","pages":"144-161"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/nyas.15201","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141858909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}