PLOS climate最新文献

{"title":"Perspectives on funding structures, cross-cultural collaboration and institutional support needed to support the next generation of convergence climate scientists","authors":"Dylan Blaskey, Louise Mercer, Fleur van Crimpen, Élise Devoie","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000330","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000330","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"82 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139388113","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Historical archives reveal record rainfall and severe flooding in December 1867 resulting from an atmospheric river and snowmelt, western Washington, USA","authors":"Daniel G. Gavin, P. Bartlein, Cary J. Mock","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000324","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000324","url":null,"abstract":"The flooding of 1861-1862 in California and Oregon is the most severe flood event documented in the far western USA and stands as a benchmark for a worst-case atmospheric-river flooding event. In western Washington, historical data are sparser, and 19th-century flood events have consequently not been well documented. We found that rainfall observations from five locations spanning western Washington had no detectable bias when compared to nearby 20th and 21st-century comparator stations. Time series of the four-day precipitation sum revealed an event in December 1867 that was greater than any of the last century at three locations, and in the top two events at the other two locations. Summing over all locations, the regional three-day or four-day peak precipitation in 1867 exceeded the 150-yr recurrence magnitude by nearly 150 mm, indicative of non-stationarity of precipitation extremes. Newspapers and historical accounts document flood damage to settlements, farms, and bridges from the Columbia River to central Puget Sound. Reported high water levels at two locations indicate floodplains under more than a meter of water. Reanalysis data (20CRv3) is poorly spatially constrained in 1867, and underestimates the magnitude of this event, but it clearly shows the atmospheric-river cause of the event and supports snowmelt as a significant contributor to flooding. Compared to the most recent extensive flooding in 1996, the 1867 floods were likely of a similar extent but centered further north, and with notably more precipitation and enhanced by snowmelt. The 1867 rainfall amounts were also greater than those produced by the 2006 atmospheric river, though flooding in 2006 was not enhanced by snowmelt and record stream discharges were limited to mountain catchments. The combined rainfall and flood evidence from 1867 shows the potential for events more extreme than have occurred in recent history in the major urban corridors of western Washington.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"3 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138959980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"NOAA fisheries research geared towards climate-ready living marine resource management in the northeast United States","authors":"Vincent Saba, Diane L. Borggaard, Joseph C. Caracappa, R. C. Chambers, Patricia M. Clay, L. Colburn, Jonathan Deroba, G. DePiper, H. du Pontavice, Paula Fratantoni, Marianne Ferguson, S. Gaichas, Sean Hayes, Kimberly Hyde, Michael Johnson, John Kocik, Ellen Keane, D. Kircheis, Scott Large, Andrew Lipsky, S. Lucey, Anna Mercer, Shannon Meseck, Timothy J. Miller, R. Morse, C. Orphanides, Julie Reichert-Nguyen, David Richardson, Jeff Smith, Ronald Vogel, Bruce Vogt, Gary Wikfors","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000323","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000323","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change can alter marine ecosystems through changes in ocean temperature, acidification, circulation, and productivity. Over the last decade, the United States northeast continental shelf (U.S. NES) has warmed faster than any other marine ecosystem in the country and is among the fastest warming regions of the global ocean. Many living marine resources in the U.S. NES ranging from recreational and commercial fish stocks to protected species have shifted their distribution in response to ocean warming. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA Fisheries) is responsible for the assessment, protection, and sustainable use of the nation’s living marine resources. In the U.S. NES, NOAA Fisheries has made substantial progress on climate research related to fish, fisheries, and protected species. However, more research is needed to help inform tactical management decisions with the goal of climate-ready living marine resource management. This is a major challenge because the observed physical and biological changes are unprecedented, and the majority of marine species assessments and management decisions do not utilize environmental data. Here we review the research accomplishments and key needs for NOAA Fisheries in the U.S. NES in the context of climate change and living marine resource management. Key research needs and products are: 1) Infrastructure with continued and enhanced ocean surveys that includes cooperative research with the fishing industry and other NOAA line offices and partners; 2) Tracking and projecting change, and understanding mechanisms including state of the ecosystem reporting, improved regional ocean and ecosystem hindcasts, forecasts, and projections, and continued process-based laboratory and field studies, 3) climate-informed management, including stock assessments that account for climate where possible, translation of changing species distributions into spatial management, climate vulnerability assessment and scenario planning, ecosystem-based management, management strategy evaluations, and increased multidisciplinary science that includes economic and social indicators.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"38 22","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138995699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Identifying ecological and evolutionary research targets and risks in climate change studies to break barriers to broad inference","authors":"Sarah J. Love, Joseph D. Edwards, Caitlin N. Barnes, Tyler W. d’Entremont, Ashlynn M. Hord, Alivia G. Nytko, Nadejda B. Sero, Shannon L. J. Bayliss, Stephanie N. Kivlin, Joseph K. Bailey","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000320","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000320","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding the responses of plants, microbes, and their interactions to long-term climate change is essential to identifying the traits, genes, and functions of organisms that maintain ecosystem stability and function of the biosphere. However, many studies investigating organismal responses to climate change are limited in their scope along several key ecological, evolutionary, and environmental axes, creating barriers to broader inference. Broad inference, or the ability to apply and validate findings across these axes, is a vital component of achieving climate preparedness in the future. Breaking barriers to broad inference requires accurate cross-ecosystem interpretability and the identification of reliable frameworks for how these responses will manifest. Current approaches have generated a valuable, yet sometimes contradictory or context dependent, understanding of responses to climate change factors from the organismal- to ecosystem-level. In this synthesis, we use plants, soil microbial communities, and their interactions as examples to identify five major barriers to broad inference and resultant target research areas. We also explain risks associated with disregarding these barriers to broad inference and potential approaches to overcoming them. Developing and funding experimental frameworks that integrate basic ecological and evolutionary principles and are designed to capture broad inference across levels of organization is necessary to further our understanding of climate change on large scales.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"47 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138595316","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Pangeo-Enabled ESM Pattern Scaling (PEEPS): A customizable dataset of emulated Earth System Model output","authors":"Ben Kravitz, Abigail C. Snyder","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000159","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000159","url":null,"abstract":"Emulation through pattern scaling is a well-established method of rapidly producing climate fields (like temperature or precipitation) from existing Earth System Model (ESM) output that, while inaccurate, is often useful for a variety of downstream purposes. Conducting pattern scaling has historically been a laborious process, in large part due to the increasing volume of ESM output data that has often required downloading and storing locally to train on. Here we describe the Pangeo-Enabled ESM Pattern Scaling (PEEPS) dataset, a repository of trained annual and monthly patterns from CMIP6 outputs. This manuscript describes and validates these updated patterns so that users can save effort calculating and reporting error statistics in manuscripts focused on the use of patterns. The trained patterns are available as NetCDF files on Zenodo for ease of use in the impact community, and are reproducible with the code provided via GitHub in both Jupyter notebook and Python script formats. Because all training data for the PEEPS data set is cloud-based, users do not need to download and house the ESM output data to reproduce the patterns in the zenodo archive, should that be more efficient. Validating the PEEPS data set on the CMIP6 archive for annual and monthly temperature, precipitation, and near-surface relative humidity, pattern scaling performs well over a variety of future scenarios except for regions in which there are strong, potentially nonlinear climate feedbacks. Although pattern scaling is normally conducted on annual mean ESM output data, it works equally well on monthly mean ESM output data. We identify several downstream applications of the PEEPS data set, including impacts assessment and evaluating certain types of Earth system uncertainties.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"125 25","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138599228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Less negative impacts of climate change on crop yields in West Africa in the new CMIP6 climate simulations ensemble","authors":"Benjamin Sultan, Aicha Ilmi Ahmed, Babacar Faye, Y. Tramblay","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000263","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000263","url":null,"abstract":"Food insecurity is among one of the greatest risks posed by climate change in Africa, where 90 to 95% of African food production is rainfed and a large proportion of the population already faces chronic hunger and malnutrition. Although, several studies have found robust evidence of future crop yield losses under climate change scenarios, there is wide variation among crops and regions as well as large modeling uncertainties. A large part of this uncertainty stems from climate projections, as climate models may differ in simulating future changes in precipitation and temperature, which could lead to different future crop production scenarios. This work examines the impacts of climate change on crop yields of maize, millet and sorghum in West Africa using climate change projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5th Phase (CMIP5) and from the new generation of climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6th Phase (CMIP6). We use the SIMPLACE crop modeling framework to simulate historical and future crop yields, and bootstrap techniques to evaluate projected changes in crop productivity between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles. Using the new generation of climate models CMIP6, we find that the negative crop yield projections shown by CMIP5 simulations are largely reduced, with even large increases in crop yields when the effect of atmospheric CO2 concentration is considered in the crop model. These differences in crop yield impacts between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations are mainly due to different climate projections of temperature and precipitation in West Africa; CMIP6 projections being significantly wetter and cooler by mid-century and to a lesser extent by the end of the century. Such results highlight the large uncertainties that remain in assessing the impacts of climate change in the region and the consequent difficulty for end-users to anticipate adaptation strategies.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"8 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138598588","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Diversifying knowledge for climate change mitigation: Illuminating the common good and desirable futures","authors":"L. F. Hirt, Kari De Pryck","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000321","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000321","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"26 21","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138601921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How does extreme weather impact the climate change discourse? Insights from the Twitter discussion on hurricanes","authors":"Maddalena Torricelli, Max Falkenberg, Alessandro Galeazzi, Fabiana Zollo, Walter Quattrociocchi, Andrea Baronchelli","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000277","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000277","url":null,"abstract":"The public understanding of climate change plays a critical role in translating climate science into climate action. In the public discourse, climate impacts are often discussed in the context of extreme weather events. Here, we analyse 65 million Twitter posts and 240 thousand news media articles related to 18 major hurricanes from 2010 to 2022 to clarify how hurricanes impact the public discussion around climate change. First, we analyse news content and show that climate change is the most prominent non hurricane-specific topic discussed by the news media in relation to hurricanes. Second, we perform a comparative analysis between reliable and questionable news media outlets, finding that unreliable outlets frequently refer to climate-related conspiracies and preferentially use the term “global warming” over “climate change”. Finally, using geolocated data, we show that accounts in regions affected by hurricanes discuss climate change at a significantly higher rate than accounts in unaffected areas, with references to climate change increasing by, on average, 80% after impact, and up to 200% for the largest hurricanes. Our findings demonstrate how hurricanes have a key impact on the public awareness of climate change.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"6 3","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134991474","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A productivity indicator for adaptation to climate change","authors":"Bradley L. Barnhart, Moriah Bostian, Rolf Färe, Shawna Grosskopf, Sophia M. Lochner","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000199","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000199","url":null,"abstract":"This study draws on economic index theory to construct a new indicator for adaptation to changing environmental conditions, most notably climate change, which may shift the production technology over time. Such environmental shifts are largely exogenous to firm decision making, for instance investments in research and development, which may also lead to technology change. Few existing measures of total factor productivity (TFP) make this distinction, between exogenous environmental shifts and shifts due to firm decision making or innovation. We introduce a nonparametric Luenberger productivity indicator for adaptation, which allows for decomposition of standard technology and efficiency change measures into both environmental and production components. We apply this framework to agricultural production in the US Mississippi River Basin for recent decades, working with USDA Census of Agriculture data at the county level and key climate conditions. We also match the production and climate data to estimates of Nitrogen loading over time, to incorporate water quality into the adaptation indicator. Our results indicate sustained overall productivity growth, for both agricultural production and nitrogen loading reductions, driven by technology gains outweighing efficiency losses. Decomposing further to the adaptation component, our results indicate modest overall adaptation gains, driven by both adaptation efficiency and technology gains.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"103 10","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134956732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate change, mental health, and reproductive decision-making: A systematic review","authors":"Hope Dillarstone, Laura J. Brown, Elaine C. Flores","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000236","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000236","url":null,"abstract":"The impact of climate change on reproductive decision-making is becoming a significant issue, with anecdotal evidence indicating a growing number of people factoring their concerns about climate change into their childbearing plans. Although empirical research has explored climate change and its relationship to mental health, as well as the motivations behind reproductive decision-making independently, a gap in the literature remains that bridges these topics at their nexus. This review endeavours to fill this gap by synthesising the available evidence connecting climate change-related concerns with reproductive decision-making and exploring the reasons and motivations behind this relationship. A systematic review using six databases was conducted to identify relevant literature. Included studies reported quantitative, qualitative, and mixed-methods data related to: (1) climate change, (2) mental health and wellbeing concerns, and (3) reproductive decision-making. Findings were synthesised narratively using a parallel-results convergent synthesis design and the quality of studies was appraised using three validated assessment tools. Four hundred and forty-six documents were screened using pre-defined inclusion criteria, resulting in the inclusion of thirteen studies. The studies were conducted between 2012 and 2022 primarily in Global North countries (e.g., USA, Canada, New Zealand, and European countries). Climate change concerns were typically associated with less positive attitudes towards reproduction and a desire and/or intent for fewer children or none at all. Four themes explaining this relationship were identified: uncertainty about the future of an unborn child, environmentalist views centred on overpopulation and overconsumption, meeting family subsistence needs, and environmental and political sentiments. The current evidence reveals a complex relationship between climate change concerns and reproductive decision-making, grounded in ethical, environmental, livelihood, and political considerations. Further research is required to better understand and address this issue with an intercultural approach, particularly among many highly affected Global South populations, to ensure comparability and generalisable results.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":" 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135290901","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}