PLOS climate最新文献

{"title":"Wanting to be part of change but feeling overworked and disempowered: Researchers’ perceptions of climate action in UK universities","authors":"Briony Latter, Christina Demski, S. Capstick","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000322","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000322","url":null,"abstract":"Interest in the relationship between the activities of universities and action on climate change is growing, but until recently there has been little focus on the critical role of researchers, particularly with regards to how research practices and culture can enable or inhibit change. This study addresses this gap, exploring researchers’ perceptions of universities’ measures to tackle their own emissions, their own engagement on issues surrounding the climate crisis, and challenges and opportunities for researchers to contribute to them. We present findings from a representative survey of 1,853 researchers from 127 UK universities across disciplines and career stages, including comparing responses across these professional differences, and analysis based on over 5,000 open text responses provided by the survey participants. The results show that while most have some knowledge of actions being taken by their universities and feel that universities’ public declarations of a climate emergency are making a difference, almost half think not enough is being done. They feel that responsibility for university climate action sits across government, universities and research councils, but almost all researchers are also personally worried about climate change and want to do more themselves to address it. For the most part, they also strongly support climate advocacy by those engaged in research. Yet high workload, uncertainty about what actions to take, perceived lack of agency or power, inflexible university processes and pressure to travel are just some of the many barriers researchers face in taking action. The study highlights how these barriers can be overcome, and the steps universities and researchers can take to better incorporate climate action into their research culture and practices.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"39 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139448262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Empowering Early Career Polar Researchers in a changing climate: Challenges and solutions","authors":"A. Moraru, Filippo Calì Quaglia, Minkyoung Kim, A. López‐Quirós, Howard M. Huynh","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000332","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000332","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"37 27","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139382371","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Advancing action on the UN Sustainable Development Goals","authors":"E. Archer, Jamie Males","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000341","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000341","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"70 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139386108","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Towards high-resolution gridded climatology stemming from the combination of official and crowdsourced weather observations using multi-fidelity methods","authors":"Daniëlle van Beekvelt, Irene Garcia‐Marti, Jouke H. S. de Baar","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000216","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000216","url":null,"abstract":"The pursue of a high resolution gridded climate data and weather forecast requires an unprecedented number of in situ near-surface observations to model the sub-mesoscale. National meteorological services (NMS) have practical and financial limitations to the number of observations it can collect, therefore, opening the door to crowdsourced weather initiatives might be an interesting option to mitigate data scarcity. In recent years, scientists have made remarkable efforts at assessing the quality of crowdsourced collections and determining ways these can add value to the “daily business” of NMS. In this work, we develop and apply a multi-fidelity spatial regression method capable of combining official observations with crowdsourced observations, which enables the creation of high-resolution interpolations of weather variables. The availability of a sheer volume of crowdsourced observations also poses questions on what is the maximum weather complexity that can be modelled with these novel data sources. We include a structured theoretical analysis simulating increasingly complex weather patterns that uses the Shannon-Nyquist limit as a benchmark. Results show that the combination of official and crowdsourced weather observations pushes further the Shannon-Nyquist limit, thus indicating that crowdsourced data contributes at monitoring sub-mesoscale weather processes (e.g. urban scales). We think that this effort illustrates well the potential of crowdsourced data, not only to expand the current range of products and services at NMS, but also opening the door for high-resolution weather forecast and monitoring, issuing local early warnings and advancing towards impact-based analyses.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"27 17","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139388969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Perspectives on funding structures, cross-cultural collaboration and institutional support needed to support the next generation of convergence climate scientists","authors":"Dylan Blaskey, Louise Mercer, Fleur van Crimpen, Élise Devoie","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000330","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000330","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"82 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139388113","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Historical archives reveal record rainfall and severe flooding in December 1867 resulting from an atmospheric river and snowmelt, western Washington, USA","authors":"Daniel G. Gavin, P. Bartlein, Cary J. Mock","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000324","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000324","url":null,"abstract":"The flooding of 1861-1862 in California and Oregon is the most severe flood event documented in the far western USA and stands as a benchmark for a worst-case atmospheric-river flooding event. In western Washington, historical data are sparser, and 19th-century flood events have consequently not been well documented. We found that rainfall observations from five locations spanning western Washington had no detectable bias when compared to nearby 20th and 21st-century comparator stations. Time series of the four-day precipitation sum revealed an event in December 1867 that was greater than any of the last century at three locations, and in the top two events at the other two locations. Summing over all locations, the regional three-day or four-day peak precipitation in 1867 exceeded the 150-yr recurrence magnitude by nearly 150 mm, indicative of non-stationarity of precipitation extremes. Newspapers and historical accounts document flood damage to settlements, farms, and bridges from the Columbia River to central Puget Sound. Reported high water levels at two locations indicate floodplains under more than a meter of water. Reanalysis data (20CRv3) is poorly spatially constrained in 1867, and underestimates the magnitude of this event, but it clearly shows the atmospheric-river cause of the event and supports snowmelt as a significant contributor to flooding. Compared to the most recent extensive flooding in 1996, the 1867 floods were likely of a similar extent but centered further north, and with notably more precipitation and enhanced by snowmelt. The 1867 rainfall amounts were also greater than those produced by the 2006 atmospheric river, though flooding in 2006 was not enhanced by snowmelt and record stream discharges were limited to mountain catchments. The combined rainfall and flood evidence from 1867 shows the potential for events more extreme than have occurred in recent history in the major urban corridors of western Washington.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"3 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138959980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"NOAA fisheries research geared towards climate-ready living marine resource management in the northeast United States","authors":"Vincent Saba, Diane L. Borggaard, Joseph C. Caracappa, R. C. Chambers, Patricia M. Clay, L. Colburn, Jonathan Deroba, G. DePiper, H. du Pontavice, Paula Fratantoni, Marianne Ferguson, S. Gaichas, Sean Hayes, Kimberly Hyde, Michael Johnson, John Kocik, Ellen Keane, D. Kircheis, Scott Large, Andrew Lipsky, S. Lucey, Anna Mercer, Shannon Meseck, Timothy J. Miller, R. Morse, C. Orphanides, Julie Reichert-Nguyen, David Richardson, Jeff Smith, Ronald Vogel, Bruce Vogt, Gary Wikfors","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000323","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000323","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change can alter marine ecosystems through changes in ocean temperature, acidification, circulation, and productivity. Over the last decade, the United States northeast continental shelf (U.S. NES) has warmed faster than any other marine ecosystem in the country and is among the fastest warming regions of the global ocean. Many living marine resources in the U.S. NES ranging from recreational and commercial fish stocks to protected species have shifted their distribution in response to ocean warming. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA Fisheries) is responsible for the assessment, protection, and sustainable use of the nation’s living marine resources. In the U.S. NES, NOAA Fisheries has made substantial progress on climate research related to fish, fisheries, and protected species. However, more research is needed to help inform tactical management decisions with the goal of climate-ready living marine resource management. This is a major challenge because the observed physical and biological changes are unprecedented, and the majority of marine species assessments and management decisions do not utilize environmental data. Here we review the research accomplishments and key needs for NOAA Fisheries in the U.S. NES in the context of climate change and living marine resource management. Key research needs and products are: 1) Infrastructure with continued and enhanced ocean surveys that includes cooperative research with the fishing industry and other NOAA line offices and partners; 2) Tracking and projecting change, and understanding mechanisms including state of the ecosystem reporting, improved regional ocean and ecosystem hindcasts, forecasts, and projections, and continued process-based laboratory and field studies, 3) climate-informed management, including stock assessments that account for climate where possible, translation of changing species distributions into spatial management, climate vulnerability assessment and scenario planning, ecosystem-based management, management strategy evaluations, and increased multidisciplinary science that includes economic and social indicators.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"38 22","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138995699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Identifying ecological and evolutionary research targets and risks in climate change studies to break barriers to broad inference","authors":"Sarah J. Love, Joseph D. Edwards, Caitlin N. Barnes, Tyler W. d’Entremont, Ashlynn M. Hord, Alivia G. Nytko, Nadejda B. Sero, Shannon L. J. Bayliss, Stephanie N. Kivlin, Joseph K. Bailey","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000320","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000320","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding the responses of plants, microbes, and their interactions to long-term climate change is essential to identifying the traits, genes, and functions of organisms that maintain ecosystem stability and function of the biosphere. However, many studies investigating organismal responses to climate change are limited in their scope along several key ecological, evolutionary, and environmental axes, creating barriers to broader inference. Broad inference, or the ability to apply and validate findings across these axes, is a vital component of achieving climate preparedness in the future. Breaking barriers to broad inference requires accurate cross-ecosystem interpretability and the identification of reliable frameworks for how these responses will manifest. Current approaches have generated a valuable, yet sometimes contradictory or context dependent, understanding of responses to climate change factors from the organismal- to ecosystem-level. In this synthesis, we use plants, soil microbial communities, and their interactions as examples to identify five major barriers to broad inference and resultant target research areas. We also explain risks associated with disregarding these barriers to broad inference and potential approaches to overcoming them. Developing and funding experimental frameworks that integrate basic ecological and evolutionary principles and are designed to capture broad inference across levels of organization is necessary to further our understanding of climate change on large scales.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"47 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138595316","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Pangeo-Enabled ESM Pattern Scaling (PEEPS): A customizable dataset of emulated Earth System Model output","authors":"Ben Kravitz, Abigail C. Snyder","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000159","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000159","url":null,"abstract":"Emulation through pattern scaling is a well-established method of rapidly producing climate fields (like temperature or precipitation) from existing Earth System Model (ESM) output that, while inaccurate, is often useful for a variety of downstream purposes. Conducting pattern scaling has historically been a laborious process, in large part due to the increasing volume of ESM output data that has often required downloading and storing locally to train on. Here we describe the Pangeo-Enabled ESM Pattern Scaling (PEEPS) dataset, a repository of trained annual and monthly patterns from CMIP6 outputs. This manuscript describes and validates these updated patterns so that users can save effort calculating and reporting error statistics in manuscripts focused on the use of patterns. The trained patterns are available as NetCDF files on Zenodo for ease of use in the impact community, and are reproducible with the code provided via GitHub in both Jupyter notebook and Python script formats. Because all training data for the PEEPS data set is cloud-based, users do not need to download and house the ESM output data to reproduce the patterns in the zenodo archive, should that be more efficient. Validating the PEEPS data set on the CMIP6 archive for annual and monthly temperature, precipitation, and near-surface relative humidity, pattern scaling performs well over a variety of future scenarios except for regions in which there are strong, potentially nonlinear climate feedbacks. Although pattern scaling is normally conducted on annual mean ESM output data, it works equally well on monthly mean ESM output data. We identify several downstream applications of the PEEPS data set, including impacts assessment and evaluating certain types of Earth system uncertainties.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"125 25","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138599228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Less negative impacts of climate change on crop yields in West Africa in the new CMIP6 climate simulations ensemble","authors":"Benjamin Sultan, Aicha Ilmi Ahmed, Babacar Faye, Y. Tramblay","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000263","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000263","url":null,"abstract":"Food insecurity is among one of the greatest risks posed by climate change in Africa, where 90 to 95% of African food production is rainfed and a large proportion of the population already faces chronic hunger and malnutrition. Although, several studies have found robust evidence of future crop yield losses under climate change scenarios, there is wide variation among crops and regions as well as large modeling uncertainties. A large part of this uncertainty stems from climate projections, as climate models may differ in simulating future changes in precipitation and temperature, which could lead to different future crop production scenarios. This work examines the impacts of climate change on crop yields of maize, millet and sorghum in West Africa using climate change projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5th Phase (CMIP5) and from the new generation of climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6th Phase (CMIP6). We use the SIMPLACE crop modeling framework to simulate historical and future crop yields, and bootstrap techniques to evaluate projected changes in crop productivity between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles. Using the new generation of climate models CMIP6, we find that the negative crop yield projections shown by CMIP5 simulations are largely reduced, with even large increases in crop yields when the effect of atmospheric CO2 concentration is considered in the crop model. These differences in crop yield impacts between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations are mainly due to different climate projections of temperature and precipitation in West Africa; CMIP6 projections being significantly wetter and cooler by mid-century and to a lesser extent by the end of the century. Such results highlight the large uncertainties that remain in assessing the impacts of climate change in the region and the consequent difficulty for end-users to anticipate adaptation strategies.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"8 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138598588","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}