PLOS climate最新文献

{"title":"Evaluating the role of observational uncertainty in climate impact assessments: Temperature-driven yellow fever risk in South America.","authors":"Sally Jahn, Keith Fraser, Katy A M Gaythorpe, Caroline M Wainwright, Neil M Ferguson","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000601","DOIUrl":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000601","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Global gridded temperature data sets (GGTDs) differ in data sources, quality control, generation methods, and spatial-temporal resolution, introducing observational uncertainty. This uncertainty is critical not only for studies on current climate conditions but also for future climate change projections, where observational data sets are used for bias correction and downscaling of global climate model (GCM) outputs. It is hence essential to ensure that reference data sets accurately represent the true climate state and span a sufficiently long period to filter out internal variability. The selection of appropriate GGTDs is hence a crucial yet often overlooked factor in research that examines the impact of climate variability and change on vector-borne diseases such as yellow fever (YF), a climate-sensitive arboviral disease endemic to tropical regions of Africa and South America. In this study, we evaluated four GGTDs, namely the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperatures (BEST), the Climatic Research Unit Time-Series (CRUTS), the fifth-generation atmospheric reanalysis of the global climate from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), ERA5, and its land-focused derivative, ERA5Land, for health-related impact research, specifically examining YF transmission in South America. Each data set was evaluated via grid-based analysis and validated against national weather station data, focusing on Brazil and Colombia, where YF out-break risk remains. While reanalysis generally outperformed lower-resolution products, ERA5 demonstrated a slight advantage over ERA5Land despite the latter's higher spatial resolution. Most importantly, our findings show that substantial differences among GGTDs affected the spatial representation of climate change indices, bioclimatic variables, and spatially aggregated temperature estimates at the administrative (AD) unit level, with substantial variations in the latter translating into markedly different estimates of key disease transmission parameters. In Colombia, admin-level temperature inputs differing by more than 6°C led to differences of about 0.2 in simulated reproduction numbers generated within a dynamic compartmental YF modeling framework.</p>","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"4 6","pages":"e0000601"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7618474/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145770283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Associations between religiosity and climate change beliefs and behaviours in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC).","authors":"Daniel Major-Smith, Isaac Halstead, Jean Golding, Katie Major-Smith","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000469","DOIUrl":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000469","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Individual actions are crucial to mitigating the impact of anthropogenic climate change. Understanding the factors shaping individuals' climate beliefs and behaviours is therefore essential to help encourage sustainable action among the public. One such factor is religion, which - based on theoretical expectations and prior literature - could influence climate beliefs and behaviours, either positively or negatively. To understand the impact of religion in more detail, we used data from two generations of a large-scale longitudinal population-based UK birth cohort study (the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children; ALSPAC). We explored whether a range of religious/spiritual beliefs and behaviours (religious belief, identity and attendance, in addition to latent classes of religiosity) were associated with a number of climate beliefs and behaviours (e.g., belief in, and concern over, climate change, and pro-environmental actions taken for climate change reasons), adjusted for a range of sociodemographic confounders. Analyses were repeated in three cohorts: the study offspring, their mothers, and the mother's partners. Overall, we observed a broadly 'U'-shaped or 'J'-shaped association between religiosity and climate beliefs and behaviours in the parental generation; participants with intermediate levels of religiosity displayed the lowest levels of belief, concern and behaviours, while the most religious participants displayed similar, and sometimes greater, awareness and actions relative to the least religious. These patterns were not replicated in the offspring generation, with little relationship observed between religion and climate questions. These results indicate a complex association between religion and climate beliefs and behaviours, which varies depending on the religion exposure, the climate outcome, and the generation. The reason for these findings is uncertain, although they perhaps suggest that, among the highly religious in the older generation, religious attendance may promote positive climate beliefs and behaviours.</p>","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"4 4","pages":"e0000469"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7618382/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145558565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Projecting progress in sustainable development goals vis-à-vis climate action in climate-economy models","authors":"A. Nikas","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000449","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000449","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"11 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141644068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate-resilient aquatic food systems require transformative change to address gender and intersectional inequalities","authors":"Rahma Adam, Anamika Amani, Rob Kuijpers, Katrine Danielsen, Esther Smits, F. Kruijssen, Nicole Moran, M. Tigchelaar, Colette C. C. Wabnitz, Alexander Tilley, Matteo Luzzi, Rumana H. Peerzadi, A. Ride, Cristiano M. Rossignoli, Edward H. Allison, Steven Cole, Irene Zatti, K. Ouko, C. Farnworth","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000309","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000309","url":null,"abstract":"The adverse impacts of climate change on aquatic food systems (AFS) and the people who depend on AFS for livelihood security are inequitably distributed between and within countries. People facing the highest risks and experiencing the severest impacts of climate change are those who already experience multidimensional inequalities in their lives, particularly because of their gender, class, age, indigeneity, ethnicity, caste, religion, and the physical and political conditions that can create additional vulnerabilities. In this paper, we conducted a scoping review of the literature that explores the links between climate change, gender, and other social identities, and AFS. The review was complemented by an analysis of representative data on women and men aquaculture farmers in Bangladesh from 2018 to 2019. We also analysed data from the 2019 Illuminating Hidden Harvest project. The study relied on the gendered agrifood system and aquatic food climate risk frameworks to guide on literature search, review, and data analyses. Our findings show that intersecting identities disadvantage certain AFS actors, particularly young women from minority ethnic groups, and create challenge for them to manage and adapt to climate shocks and stresses. Examples of gender-responsive and transformative interventions are highlighted from our review to showcase how such intersectional disadvantages can be addressed to increase women’s empowerment and social and gender equality.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141641394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unintended consequences of nature-based solutions: Social equity and flood buyouts","authors":"S. E. Walker, Natalie Bennett, E. A. Smith, Tyler Nuckols, A. Narayana, Jordan Lee, Karen M. Bailey","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000328","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000328","url":null,"abstract":"Nature-based solutions [NbS] can serve as effective strategies to promote the resilience of both people and ecosystems in the face of climate change. However, these solutions can exacerbate existing social inequities if they fail to adequately consider the complex social contexts in which they are implemented. To better understand the equity implications of NbS, and how to design and deliver such strategies more equitably, this study applies a conceptual framework of 4 equity pathways (distributional, procedural, recognitional, and structural equity) to a flood buyout program case study. We utilized document analysis and semi-structured interviews to conduct an equity analysis of a flood buyout program in a rural community in the Catskills region of New York. While many aspects of the flood buyout program aimed to empower local municipalities and landowners, local residents perceived a lack of decision-making power, negative long-term impacts to community well-being, and tension regarding the current and historical power differentials between these rural communities and New York City. Our results indicate individual equity pathways interact with one another in complex ways. They highlight the importance of comprehensive planning and evaluation of community impacts to better address the systems-level relationships that shape the equity implications of buyout programs.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"62 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141654679","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Turning up the heat on public health: Adapting to extreme temperatures in Latin America and the Caribbean","authors":"Marisol Yglesias-González, Avriel Díaz, Willy Dunbar","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000446","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000446","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"8 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141655940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"High coral heat tolerance at local-scale thermal refugia","authors":"Liam Lachs, A. Humanes, Peter J. Mumby, S. Donner, John Bythell, Elizabeth Beauchamp, Leah Bukurou, Daisy Buzzoni, Rubén de la Torre Cerro, Holly K. East, Alasdair Edwards, Y. Golbuu, Helios M. Martinez, Eveline van der Steeg, Alex Ward, James Guest","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000453","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000453","url":null,"abstract":"Marine heatwaves and mass bleaching have devastated coral populations globally, yet bleaching severity often varies among reefs. To what extent a reef’s past exposure to heat stress influences coral bleaching and mortality remains uncertain. Here we identify persistent local-scale hotspots and thermal refugia among the reefs of Palau, Micronesia, based on 36 years of satellite-derived cumulative heat stress (degree heating weeks–DHW, units: °C-weeks). One possibility is that hotspots may harbour more heat tolerant corals due to acclimatisation, directional selection, and/or loss of tolerant genotypes. Historic patterns of assemblage-wide mass bleaching and marine heatwaves align with this hypothesis, with DHW-bleaching responses of hotspots occurring at 1.7°C-weeks greater heat stress than thermal refugia. This trend was consistent yet weaker for Acropora and corymbose Acropora, with severe bleaching risk reduced by 4–10% at hotspots. However, we find a contrasting pattern for Acropora digitifera exposed to a simulated marine heatwave. Fragments of 174 colonies were collected from replicate hotspot and thermal refugium outer reefs with comparable wave exposure and depth. Higher heat tolerance at thermal refugia (+0.7°C-weeks) and a correlation with tissue biomass suggests that factors other than DHW may overwhelm any spatially varying effects of past DHW exposure. Further, we found considerable A. digitifera heat tolerance variability across sites; compared to the least-tolerant 10% of colonies, the most-tolerant 10% could withstand additional heat stresses of 5.2 and 4.1°C-weeks for thermal refugia and hotspots, respectively. Our study demonstrates that hotspot reefs do not necessarily harbour more heat tolerant corals than nearby thermal refugia, and that mass bleaching patterns do not necessarily predict species responses. This nuance has important implications for designing climate-smart initiatives; for instance, in the search for heat tolerant corals, our results suggest that investing effort into identifying the most tolerant colonies within individual reefs may be warranted.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"123 43","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141656708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Correction: Good practices: Co-producing integrated climate, environment and health services","authors":"","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000461","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000461","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"121 26","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141656747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Tackling crises in cryospheric research","authors":"R. Mallett, Alfonso Fernández Rivera, Sher Muhammad, Andreas Born","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000439","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000439","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"126 45","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141656831","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The urgent need for social science and humanities knowledge for climate action in Europe","authors":"Jeffrey Rosamond, Claire Dupont, Elin Lerum Boasson, Charlotte Burns, Tomas Maltby, S. Oberthür, Louisa Parks, Kacper Szulecki, Paul Tobin, Diarmuid Torney","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000450","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000450","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"48 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141659967","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}