PLOS climate最新文献_第7页

COP28: Loss and damage, fossil fuels and the limits of climate diplomacy COP28: 损失与损害、化石燃料与气候外交的局限性

PLOS climate Pub Date : 2024-01-23 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000351

Paul G. Harris

引用次数: 0

A panel data study on the effect of climate change on life expectancy 气候变化对预期寿命影响的面板数据研究

PLOS climate Pub Date : 2024-01-18 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000339

Amit Roy

{"title":"A panel data study on the effect of climate change on life expectancy","authors":"Amit Roy","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000339","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000339","url":null,"abstract":"The life and health of billions of people is endangered by climate change today. Life expectancy is generally used as the best metric for assessing the population health status of a nation. Against this backdrop, this paper investigates the effect of climate change on life expectancy using the panel data model. To do so, imprimis, this paper develops a conceptual framework linking direct and indirect pathways by which climate change affects health. The direct pathways are through weather variables and natural disasters. The indirect pathways are mediated through economic systems and ecosystems. Then this paper estimates the effect of climate change on life expectancy using cross-national data from 191 countries covering the period 1940–2020 and employing the fixed-effect method. The finding of this study suggests that if the annual average temperature increases by 1°C, then the life expectancy at birth will decline by 0.44 years. Moreover, the temperature rise will further negatively impact life expectancy by interacting with the rainfall cycle. If the composite climate change index, an index of the geometric mean of temperature and rainfall, increases by 10 points, the life expectancy at birth will decline by 0.50 years. Moreover, climate change will disproportionately reduce the life expectancy of females more than the life expectancy of males. A negative relationship between a composite climate change index and life expectancy underscores the urgency of addressing climate change as a public health crisis. Mitigation efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to changing conditions are essential to minimize the health risks associated with climate change. Thus, countries should come forward with prompt initiatives to contain global temperature rise and protect the health of the population on the verge of climate change.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"109 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139614407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Climate change impact on Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) life cycle in Mozambique 气候变化对莫桑比克 Spodoptera frugiperda（鳞翅目：夜蛾科）生命周期的影响

PLOS climate Pub Date : 2024-01-18 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000325

T. Sumila, Simone Ferraz, Angelica Durigon

{"title":"Climate change impact on Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) life cycle in Mozambique","authors":"T. Sumila, Simone Ferraz, Angelica Durigon","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000325","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000325","url":null,"abstract":"Although different seasonal cues are important for fall armyworm (FAW, Spodoptera frugiperda J.E. Smith) survival, it is known that the life cycle of this insect is strongly dependent on air temperature, means that its development rate proceeds faster when the weather is warm. To develops the insect needs to accumulate an amount of thermal units, as known as Growing Degree-Days (GDD). However, with the climate change driven by global warming, the GDD pattern must be changed and therefore, the life cycle of this new bug in Mozambique may be different from that observed in its native region. In the present study it is estimated the possible changes of FAW life cycle by applying the GDD method over Mozambique, under two representative scenarios of climate changes, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for 2070–2099 relative to present climate (1971–2000). For this purpose, dynamical downscaling process through the regional model RegCM4, nested to global model HadGEM2 were used. The outputs of air temperature dataset from the simulations were used to compute the accumulated GDD and hence the FAW number of generations (NG) during the summer-season over the study domain. The findings indicate that there is a bipolar pattern of GDD accumulation, being negative over most of central and restricted areas in southern region, and positive in northern region, altitude-modified climate areas over central region, and over southernmost areas for both representative climate scenarios, relative to present climate. Meanwhile, there is an increase (decrease) in NG in the areas of higher (lower) increase in air temperature for both future scenarios relative to present climate.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"123 19","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139616043","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Sea otter recovery buffers century-scale declines in California kelp forests 海獭的恢复缓冲了加利福尼亚海藻森林百年规模的衰退

PLOS climate Pub Date : 2024-01-18 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000290

Teri E. Nicholson, Loren McClenachan, Kisei R. Tanaka, Kyle S. Van Houtan

{"title":"Sea otter recovery buffers century-scale declines in California kelp forests","authors":"Teri E. Nicholson, Loren McClenachan, Kisei R. Tanaka, Kyle S. Van Houtan","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000290","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000290","url":null,"abstract":"The status of kelp forests and their vulnerability to climate change are of global significance. As the foundation for productive and extensive ecosystems, understanding long-term kelp forest trends is critical to coastal ecosystem management, climate resiliency, and restoration programs. In this study, we curate historical US government kelp canopy inventories, develop methods to compare them with contemporary surveys, and use a machine learning framework to evaluate and rank the drivers of change for California kelp forests over the last century. Historical surveys documented Macrocystis and Nereocystis kelp forests covered approximately 120.4 km2 in 1910–1912, which is only slightly above surveys in 2014–2016 (112.0 km2). These statewide comparisons, however, mask dramatic regional changes with increases in Central California (+57.6%, +19.7 km2) and losses along the Northern (-63.0%, -8.1 km2), and Southern (-52.1%, -18.3 km2) mainland coastlines. Random Forest models rank sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) population density as the primary driver of kelp changes, with benthic substrate, extreme heat, and high annual variation in primary productivity also significant. This century-scale perspective identifies dramatically different outcomes for California’s kelp forests, providing a blueprint for nature-based solutions that enhance coastal resilience to climate change.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"107 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139615382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A two-decade analysis of the spatial and temporal variations in burned areas across Zimbabwe 对津巴布韦各地烧毁面积的时空变化进行的二十年分析

PLOS climate Pub Date : 2024-01-17 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000201

M. Shekede, S. Kusangaya, Courage B. Chavava, I. Gwitira, Abel Chemura

{"title":"A two-decade analysis of the spatial and temporal variations in burned areas across Zimbabwe","authors":"M. Shekede, S. Kusangaya, Courage B. Chavava, I. Gwitira, Abel Chemura","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000201","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000201","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding wildfire dynamics in space and over time is critical for wildfire control and management. In this study, fire data from European Space Agency (ESA) MODIS fire product (ESA/CCI/FireCCI/5_1) with ≥ 70% confidence level was used to characterise spatial and temporal variation in fire frequency in Zimbabwe between 2001 and 2020. Results showed that burned area increased by 16% from 3,689 km2 in 2001 to 6,130 km2 in 2011 and decreased in subsequent years reaching its lowest in 2020 (1,161km2). Over, the 20-year period, an average of 40,086.56 km2 of land was burned annually across the country. In addition, results of the regression analysis based on Generalised Linear Model illustrated that soil moisture, wind speed and temperature significantly explained variation in burned area. Moreover, the four-year lagged annual rainfall was positively related with burned area suggesting that some parts in the country (southern and western) are characterised by limited herbaceous production thereby increasing the time required for the accumulation of sufficient fuel load. The study identified major fire hotspots in Zimbabwe through the integration of remotely sensed fire data within a spatially analytical framework. This can provide useful insights into fire evolution which can be used to guide wildfire control and management in fire prone ecosystems. Moreover, resource allocation for fire management and mitigation can be optimised through targeting areas most affected by wildfires especially during the dry season where wildfire activity is at its peak.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":" 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139617204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Use of machine learning tools to predict health risks from climate-sensitive extreme weather events: A scoping review 使用机器学习工具预测气候敏感极端天气事件的健康风险：范围审查

PLOS climate Pub Date : 2024-01-17 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000338

Shakirah N. Ssebyala, T. M. Kintu, D. J. Muganzi, Caleb Dresser, Michelle R. Demetres, Yuan Lai, Kobusingye Mercy, Chenyu Li, Fei Wang, Soko Setoguchi, L. A. Celi, Arnab K. Ghosh

{"title":"Use of machine learning tools to predict health risks from climate-sensitive extreme weather events: A scoping review","authors":"Shakirah N. Ssebyala, T. M. Kintu, D. J. Muganzi, Caleb Dresser, Michelle R. Demetres, Yuan Lai, Kobusingye Mercy, Chenyu Li, Fei Wang, Soko Setoguchi, L. A. Celi, Arnab K. Ghosh","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000338","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000338","url":null,"abstract":"Machine learning (ML) algorithms may play a role in predicting the adverse health impacts of climate-sensitive extreme weather events because accurate prediction of such effects can guide proactive clinical and policy decisions. To systematically review the literature that describe ML algorithms that predict health outcomes from climate-sensitive extreme weather events. A comprehensive literature search was performed in the following databases from inception–October 2022: Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid EMBASE, The Cochrane Library, Web of Science, bioRxiv, medRxiv, Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers, Google Scholar, and Engineering Village. The retrieved studies were then screened for eligibility against predefined inclusion/exclusion criteria. The studies were then qualitatively synthesized based on the type of extreme weather event. Gaps in the literature were identified based on this synthesis. Of the 6096 records screened, seven studies met the inclusion criteria. Six of the studies predicted health outcomes from heat waves, and one for flooding. Health outcomes described included 1) all-cause non-age standardized mortality rates, 2) heat-related conditions and 3) post-traumatic stress disorder. Prediction models were developed using six validated ML techniques including non-linear exponential regression, logistic regression, spatiotemporal Integrated Laplace Approximation (INLA), random forest and decision tree methods (DT), and support vector machines (SVM). Use of ML algorithms to assess adverse health impacts from climate-sensitive extreme weather events is possible. However, to fully utilize these ML techniques, better quality data suitable for use is desirable. Development of data standards for climate change and health may help ensure model robustness and comparison across space and time. Future research should also consider health equity implications.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":" 1031","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139617557","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Three priorities for evidence-based governance of heatwave events in Europe 欧洲热浪事件循证治理的三个优先事项

PLOS climate Pub Date : 2024-01-16 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000335

Sylvia I. Bergh, Dieneke Geertsema

引用次数: 0

Research priorities in the decarbonisation of buildings 建筑脱碳的研究重点

PLOS climate Pub Date : 2024-01-10 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000334

Brian Norton

引用次数: 0

Gender relations and decision-making on climate change adaptation in rural East African households: A qualitative systematic review 东非农村家庭中的性别关系和适应气候变化的决策：定性系统审查

PLOS climate Pub Date : 2024-01-10 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000279

Johanne Niemann, Miriam El-Mahdi, H. Samuelsen, B. Tersbøl

{"title":"Gender relations and decision-making on climate change adaptation in rural East African households: A qualitative systematic review","authors":"Johanne Niemann, Miriam El-Mahdi, H. Samuelsen, B. Tersbøl","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000279","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000279","url":null,"abstract":"Background: Climatic changes are threatening rural livelihoods in East Africa. Evidence suggests that climate change adaptation in this context might reproduce inequitable intra-household gender relations and that adaptation may be more effective when women are involved in meaningful ways. Hence, a nuanced understanding of the gendered nature of intra-household adaptation decision-making is essential for gender-responsive research, policy-making and practice. This qualitative systematic review aimed to investigate how gender relations influence decision-making concerning climate change adaptation in rural East African households and how decisions about climate change adaptation influence intra-household gender dynamics, in turn. Applying qualitative meta-synthesis principles, systematic searches were conducted in 8 databases and supplemented with comprehensive hand searches. 3,662 unique hits were screened using predetermined inclusion criteria, leading to a final sample of 21 papers. Relevant findings of these studies were synthesised using inductive thematic coding, memoing and thematic analysis. While men tended to be the primary decision-makers, women exercised some decision-making power in traditionally female domains and in female-headed households. Women’s and men’s roles in intra-household adaptation decision-making appeared to be influenced by a plethora of interconnected factors, including gender norms, gendered divisions of labour and access, ownership and control over resources. Intra-household adaptation seemed to impact the dynamics between male and female household members. The pathways of this influence were complex, and the ultimate outcomes for men and women remained unclear. We discuss our findings with reference to theoretical literature on gender-transformative approaches in development and adaptation and previous research concerning the gendered nature of climate change adaptation in East Africa. We then discuss implications for gender-responsive adaptation interventions.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"18 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139439059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Polar paleoenvironmental perspectives on modern climate change 从极地古环境角度看现代气候变化

PLOS climate Pub Date : 2024-01-10 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000333

L. Gemery, A. López‐Quirós

引用次数: 0