PLOS climate最新文献_第7页

A two-decade analysis of the spatial and temporal variations in burned areas across Zimbabwe 对津巴布韦各地烧毁面积的时空变化进行的二十年分析

PLOS climate Pub Date : 2024-01-17 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000201

M. Shekede, S. Kusangaya, Courage B. Chavava, I. Gwitira, Abel Chemura

{"title":"A two-decade analysis of the spatial and temporal variations in burned areas across Zimbabwe","authors":"M. Shekede, S. Kusangaya, Courage B. Chavava, I. Gwitira, Abel Chemura","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000201","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000201","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding wildfire dynamics in space and over time is critical for wildfire control and management. In this study, fire data from European Space Agency (ESA) MODIS fire product (ESA/CCI/FireCCI/5_1) with ≥ 70% confidence level was used to characterise spatial and temporal variation in fire frequency in Zimbabwe between 2001 and 2020. Results showed that burned area increased by 16% from 3,689 km2 in 2001 to 6,130 km2 in 2011 and decreased in subsequent years reaching its lowest in 2020 (1,161km2). Over, the 20-year period, an average of 40,086.56 km2 of land was burned annually across the country. In addition, results of the regression analysis based on Generalised Linear Model illustrated that soil moisture, wind speed and temperature significantly explained variation in burned area. Moreover, the four-year lagged annual rainfall was positively related with burned area suggesting that some parts in the country (southern and western) are characterised by limited herbaceous production thereby increasing the time required for the accumulation of sufficient fuel load. The study identified major fire hotspots in Zimbabwe through the integration of remotely sensed fire data within a spatially analytical framework. This can provide useful insights into fire evolution which can be used to guide wildfire control and management in fire prone ecosystems. Moreover, resource allocation for fire management and mitigation can be optimised through targeting areas most affected by wildfires especially during the dry season where wildfire activity is at its peak.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":" 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139617204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Use of machine learning tools to predict health risks from climate-sensitive extreme weather events: A scoping review 使用机器学习工具预测气候敏感极端天气事件的健康风险：范围审查

PLOS climate Pub Date : 2024-01-17 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000338

Shakirah N. Ssebyala, T. M. Kintu, D. J. Muganzi, Caleb Dresser, Michelle R. Demetres, Yuan Lai, Kobusingye Mercy, Chenyu Li, Fei Wang, Soko Setoguchi, L. A. Celi, Arnab K. Ghosh

{"title":"Use of machine learning tools to predict health risks from climate-sensitive extreme weather events: A scoping review","authors":"Shakirah N. Ssebyala, T. M. Kintu, D. J. Muganzi, Caleb Dresser, Michelle R. Demetres, Yuan Lai, Kobusingye Mercy, Chenyu Li, Fei Wang, Soko Setoguchi, L. A. Celi, Arnab K. Ghosh","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000338","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000338","url":null,"abstract":"Machine learning (ML) algorithms may play a role in predicting the adverse health impacts of climate-sensitive extreme weather events because accurate prediction of such effects can guide proactive clinical and policy decisions. To systematically review the literature that describe ML algorithms that predict health outcomes from climate-sensitive extreme weather events. A comprehensive literature search was performed in the following databases from inception–October 2022: Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid EMBASE, The Cochrane Library, Web of Science, bioRxiv, medRxiv, Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers, Google Scholar, and Engineering Village. The retrieved studies were then screened for eligibility against predefined inclusion/exclusion criteria. The studies were then qualitatively synthesized based on the type of extreme weather event. Gaps in the literature were identified based on this synthesis. Of the 6096 records screened, seven studies met the inclusion criteria. Six of the studies predicted health outcomes from heat waves, and one for flooding. Health outcomes described included 1) all-cause non-age standardized mortality rates, 2) heat-related conditions and 3) post-traumatic stress disorder. Prediction models were developed using six validated ML techniques including non-linear exponential regression, logistic regression, spatiotemporal Integrated Laplace Approximation (INLA), random forest and decision tree methods (DT), and support vector machines (SVM). Use of ML algorithms to assess adverse health impacts from climate-sensitive extreme weather events is possible. However, to fully utilize these ML techniques, better quality data suitable for use is desirable. Development of data standards for climate change and health may help ensure model robustness and comparison across space and time. Future research should also consider health equity implications.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":" 1031","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139617557","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Three priorities for evidence-based governance of heatwave events in Europe 欧洲热浪事件循证治理的三个优先事项

PLOS climate Pub Date : 2024-01-16 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000335

Sylvia I. Bergh, Dieneke Geertsema

引用次数: 0

Research priorities in the decarbonisation of buildings 建筑脱碳的研究重点

PLOS climate Pub Date : 2024-01-10 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000334

Brian Norton

引用次数: 0

Gender relations and decision-making on climate change adaptation in rural East African households: A qualitative systematic review 东非农村家庭中的性别关系和适应气候变化的决策：定性系统审查

PLOS climate Pub Date : 2024-01-10 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000279

Johanne Niemann, Miriam El-Mahdi, H. Samuelsen, B. Tersbøl

{"title":"Gender relations and decision-making on climate change adaptation in rural East African households: A qualitative systematic review","authors":"Johanne Niemann, Miriam El-Mahdi, H. Samuelsen, B. Tersbøl","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000279","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000279","url":null,"abstract":"Background: Climatic changes are threatening rural livelihoods in East Africa. Evidence suggests that climate change adaptation in this context might reproduce inequitable intra-household gender relations and that adaptation may be more effective when women are involved in meaningful ways. Hence, a nuanced understanding of the gendered nature of intra-household adaptation decision-making is essential for gender-responsive research, policy-making and practice. This qualitative systematic review aimed to investigate how gender relations influence decision-making concerning climate change adaptation in rural East African households and how decisions about climate change adaptation influence intra-household gender dynamics, in turn. Applying qualitative meta-synthesis principles, systematic searches were conducted in 8 databases and supplemented with comprehensive hand searches. 3,662 unique hits were screened using predetermined inclusion criteria, leading to a final sample of 21 papers. Relevant findings of these studies were synthesised using inductive thematic coding, memoing and thematic analysis. While men tended to be the primary decision-makers, women exercised some decision-making power in traditionally female domains and in female-headed households. Women’s and men’s roles in intra-household adaptation decision-making appeared to be influenced by a plethora of interconnected factors, including gender norms, gendered divisions of labour and access, ownership and control over resources. Intra-household adaptation seemed to impact the dynamics between male and female household members. The pathways of this influence were complex, and the ultimate outcomes for men and women remained unclear. We discuss our findings with reference to theoretical literature on gender-transformative approaches in development and adaptation and previous research concerning the gendered nature of climate change adaptation in East Africa. We then discuss implications for gender-responsive adaptation interventions.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"18 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139439059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Polar paleoenvironmental perspectives on modern climate change 从极地古环境角度看现代气候变化

PLOS climate Pub Date : 2024-01-10 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000333

L. Gemery, A. López‐Quirós

引用次数: 0

Wanting to be part of change but feeling overworked and disempowered: Researchers’ perceptions of climate action in UK universities 希望参与变革，但感到工作过度和权力缺失：英国大学研究人员对气候行动的看法

PLOS climate Pub Date : 2024-01-08 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000322

Briony Latter, Christina Demski, S. Capstick

{"title":"Wanting to be part of change but feeling overworked and disempowered: Researchers’ perceptions of climate action in UK universities","authors":"Briony Latter, Christina Demski, S. Capstick","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000322","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000322","url":null,"abstract":"Interest in the relationship between the activities of universities and action on climate change is growing, but until recently there has been little focus on the critical role of researchers, particularly with regards to how research practices and culture can enable or inhibit change. This study addresses this gap, exploring researchers’ perceptions of universities’ measures to tackle their own emissions, their own engagement on issues surrounding the climate crisis, and challenges and opportunities for researchers to contribute to them. We present findings from a representative survey of 1,853 researchers from 127 UK universities across disciplines and career stages, including comparing responses across these professional differences, and analysis based on over 5,000 open text responses provided by the survey participants. The results show that while most have some knowledge of actions being taken by their universities and feel that universities’ public declarations of a climate emergency are making a difference, almost half think not enough is being done. They feel that responsibility for university climate action sits across government, universities and research councils, but almost all researchers are also personally worried about climate change and want to do more themselves to address it. For the most part, they also strongly support climate advocacy by those engaged in research. Yet high workload, uncertainty about what actions to take, perceived lack of agency or power, inflexible university processes and pressure to travel are just some of the many barriers researchers face in taking action. The study highlights how these barriers can be overcome, and the steps universities and researchers can take to better incorporate climate action into their research culture and practices.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"39 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139448262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Empowering Early Career Polar Researchers in a changing climate: Challenges and solutions 在不断变化的气候中增强极地研究人员的能力：挑战与解决方案

PLOS climate Pub Date : 2024-01-05 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000332

A. Moraru, Filippo Calì Quaglia, Minkyoung Kim, A. López‐Quirós, Howard M. Huynh

引用次数: 0

Advancing action on the UN Sustainable Development Goals 推进联合国可持续发展目标的行动

PLOS climate Pub Date : 2024-01-04 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000341

E. Archer, Jamie Males

引用次数: 0

Towards high-resolution gridded climatology stemming from the combination of official and crowdsourced weather observations using multi-fidelity methods 利用多保真度方法结合官方和众包气象观测数据，实现高分辨率网格气候学

PLOS climate Pub Date : 2024-01-03 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000216

Daniëlle van Beekvelt, Irene Garcia‐Marti, Jouke H. S. de Baar

{"title":"Towards high-resolution gridded climatology stemming from the combination of official and crowdsourced weather observations using multi-fidelity methods","authors":"Daniëlle van Beekvelt, Irene Garcia‐Marti, Jouke H. S. de Baar","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000216","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000216","url":null,"abstract":"The pursue of a high resolution gridded climate data and weather forecast requires an unprecedented number of in situ near-surface observations to model the sub-mesoscale. National meteorological services (NMS) have practical and financial limitations to the number of observations it can collect, therefore, opening the door to crowdsourced weather initiatives might be an interesting option to mitigate data scarcity. In recent years, scientists have made remarkable efforts at assessing the quality of crowdsourced collections and determining ways these can add value to the “daily business” of NMS. In this work, we develop and apply a multi-fidelity spatial regression method capable of combining official observations with crowdsourced observations, which enables the creation of high-resolution interpolations of weather variables. The availability of a sheer volume of crowdsourced observations also poses questions on what is the maximum weather complexity that can be modelled with these novel data sources. We include a structured theoretical analysis simulating increasingly complex weather patterns that uses the Shannon-Nyquist limit as a benchmark. Results show that the combination of official and crowdsourced weather observations pushes further the Shannon-Nyquist limit, thus indicating that crowdsourced data contributes at monitoring sub-mesoscale weather processes (e.g. urban scales). We think that this effort illustrates well the potential of crowdsourced data, not only to expand the current range of products and services at NMS, but also opening the door for high-resolution weather forecast and monitoring, issuing local early warnings and advancing towards impact-based analyses.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"27 17","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139388969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0