PLOS climate最新文献

{"title":"Stay or go? Geographic variation in risks due to climate change for fishing fleets that adapt in-place or adapt on-the-move","authors":"J. Samhouri, B. E. Feist, Michael Jacox, Owen R. Liu, K. Richerson, Erin Steiner, John Wallace, Kelly Andrews, Lewis Barnett, A. Beaudreau, L. Bellquist, Mercedes Pozo Buil, M. Haltuch, Abigail Harley, Chris J. Harvey, Isaac C. Kaplan, Karma Norman, Amanda Phillips, L. Rasmuson, Eric J. Ward, Curt Whitmire, Rebecca L. Selden","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000285","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000285","url":null,"abstract":"From fishers to farmers, people across the planet who rely directly upon natural resources for their livelihoods and well-being face extensive impacts from climate change. However, local- and regional-scale impacts and associated risks can vary geographically, and the implications for development of adaptation pathways that will be most effective for specific communities are underexplored. To improve this understanding at relevant local scales, we developed a coupled social-ecological approach to assess the risk posed to fishing fleets by climate change, applying it to a case study of groundfish fleets that are a cornerstone of fisheries along the U.S. West Coast. Based on the mean of three high-resolution climate projections, we found that more poleward fleets may experience twice as much local temperature change as equatorward fleets, and 3–4 times as much depth displacement of historical environmental conditions in their fishing grounds. Not only are they more highly exposed to climate change, but some poleward fleets are >10x more economically-dependent on groundfish. While we show clear regional differences in fleets’ flexibility to shift to new fisheries via fisheries diversification (‘adapt in-place’) or shift their fishing grounds in response to future change through greater mobility (‘adapt on-the-move’), these differences do not completely mitigate the greater exposure and economic dependence of more poleward fleets. Therefore, on the U.S. West Coast more poleward fishing fleets may be at greater overall risk due to climate change, in contrast to expectations for greater equatorward risk in other parts of the world. Through integration of climatic, ecological, and socio-economic data, this case study illustrates the potential for widespread implementation of risk assessment at scales relevant to fishers, communities, and decision makers. Such applications will help identify the greatest opportunities to mitigate climate risks through pathways that enhance flexibility and other dimensions of adaptive capacity.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":" 16","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139787795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Open science and the climate crisis","authors":"Michael J. Fell, N. Watson, G. Huebner","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000336","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000336","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"23 26","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139795361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Open science and the climate crisis","authors":"Michael J. Fell, N. Watson, G. Huebner","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000336","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000336","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"38 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139855221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Systematic mapping of climate and environmental framing experiments and re-analysis with computational methods points to omitted interaction bias","authors":"L. Fesenfeld, Liam F. Beiser‐McGrath, Yixian Sun, M. Wicki, Thomas Bernauer","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000297","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000297","url":null,"abstract":"Ambitious climate policy requires acceptance by millions of people whose daily lives would be affected in costly ways. In turn, this requires an understanding of how to get the mass public on board and prevent a political backlash against costly climate policies. Many scholars regard ‘framing’, specially tailored messages emphasizing specific subsets of political arguments to certain population subgroups, as an effective communication strategy for changing climate beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors. In contrast, other scholars argue that people hold relatively stable opinions and doubt that framing can alter public opinion on salient issues like climate change. We contribute to this debate in two ways: First, we conduct a systematic mapping of 121 experimental studies on climate and environmental policy framing, published in 46 peer-reviewed journals and present results of a survey with authors of these studies. Second, we illustrate the use of novel computational methods to check for the robustness of subgroup effects and identify omitted interaction bias. We find that most experiments report significant main and subgroup effects but rarely use advanced methods to account for potential omitted interaction bias. Moreover, only a few studies make their data publicly available to easily replicate them. Our survey of framing researchers suggests that when scholars successfully publish non-significant effects, these were typically bundled together with other, significant effects to increase publication chances. Finally, using a Bayesian computational sparse regression technique, we offer an illustrative re-analysis of 10 studies focusing on subgroup framing differences by partisanship (a key driver of climate change attitudes) and show that these effects are often not robust when accounting for omitted interaction bias.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"30 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139798457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Systematic mapping of climate and environmental framing experiments and re-analysis with computational methods points to omitted interaction bias","authors":"L. Fesenfeld, Liam F. Beiser‐McGrath, Yixian Sun, M. Wicki, Thomas Bernauer","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000297","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000297","url":null,"abstract":"Ambitious climate policy requires acceptance by millions of people whose daily lives would be affected in costly ways. In turn, this requires an understanding of how to get the mass public on board and prevent a political backlash against costly climate policies. Many scholars regard ‘framing’, specially tailored messages emphasizing specific subsets of political arguments to certain population subgroups, as an effective communication strategy for changing climate beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors. In contrast, other scholars argue that people hold relatively stable opinions and doubt that framing can alter public opinion on salient issues like climate change. We contribute to this debate in two ways: First, we conduct a systematic mapping of 121 experimental studies on climate and environmental policy framing, published in 46 peer-reviewed journals and present results of a survey with authors of these studies. Second, we illustrate the use of novel computational methods to check for the robustness of subgroup effects and identify omitted interaction bias. We find that most experiments report significant main and subgroup effects but rarely use advanced methods to account for potential omitted interaction bias. Moreover, only a few studies make their data publicly available to easily replicate them. Our survey of framing researchers suggests that when scholars successfully publish non-significant effects, these were typically bundled together with other, significant effects to increase publication chances. Finally, using a Bayesian computational sparse regression technique, we offer an illustrative re-analysis of 10 studies focusing on subgroup framing differences by partisanship (a key driver of climate change attitudes) and show that these effects are often not robust when accounting for omitted interaction bias.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"383 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139858275","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Harnessing economic tools for Indigenous climate resilience: Insights from Arctic marine resources","authors":"M. Kourantidou","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000342","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000342","url":null,"abstract":"Economic tools remain under-used in addressing multiple challenges faced by indigenous communities in the rapidly changing Arctic. While there are multiple explanations for this under-use, perceptions that economic principles diverge from indigenous value systems and are rooted in Western paradigms limit the uptake of these tools to bolster resilience in the face of climate change. Nevertheless, Indigenous communities are expected to integrate their traditional systems with the historically imposed colonial systems of resource extraction to sustain their economies and community wellbeing that are challenged by environmental shifts and socioecological transitions. These changes manifest in resource use, availability and management and affect the ways Indigenous knowledge has traditionally guided resource exploitation decisions and practices. Using select examples, this paper argues that economic approaches to the management of marine resources have the potential to improve the well-being and resilience of indigenous Arctic communities. While more work is needed to tailor economic tools to the specific needs of indigenous people, the integration of resource economics and traditional approaches to resource management holds promise for strengthening Indigenous resilience in the face of the profound challenges posed by climate change.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"105 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139862986","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Harnessing economic tools for Indigenous climate resilience: Insights from Arctic marine resources","authors":"M. Kourantidou","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000342","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000342","url":null,"abstract":"Economic tools remain under-used in addressing multiple challenges faced by indigenous communities in the rapidly changing Arctic. While there are multiple explanations for this under-use, perceptions that economic principles diverge from indigenous value systems and are rooted in Western paradigms limit the uptake of these tools to bolster resilience in the face of climate change. Nevertheless, Indigenous communities are expected to integrate their traditional systems with the historically imposed colonial systems of resource extraction to sustain their economies and community wellbeing that are challenged by environmental shifts and socioecological transitions. These changes manifest in resource use, availability and management and affect the ways Indigenous knowledge has traditionally guided resource exploitation decisions and practices. Using select examples, this paper argues that economic approaches to the management of marine resources have the potential to improve the well-being and resilience of indigenous Arctic communities. While more work is needed to tailor economic tools to the specific needs of indigenous people, the integration of resource economics and traditional approaches to resource management holds promise for strengthening Indigenous resilience in the face of the profound challenges posed by climate change.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"56 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139803187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Atmosphere and ocean energy transport in extreme warming scenarios","authors":"Alyssa N. Poletti, D. Frierson, Travis Aerenson, Akshaya C. Nikumbh, Rachel Carroll, William Henshaw, Jack Scheff","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000343","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000343","url":null,"abstract":"Extreme scenarios of global warming out to 2300 from the SSP5-8.5 extension scenario are analyzed in three state-of-the-art climate models, including two models with climate sensitivity greater than 4.5°C. The result is some of the largest warming amounts ever seen in simulations run over the historical record and into the future. The simulations exhibit between 9.3 and 17.5°C global mean temperature change between pre-Industrial and the end of the 23rd century. The extremely large changes in global temperature allow exploration of fundamental questions in climate dynamics, such as the determination of moisture and energy transports, and their relation to global atmosphere-ocean circulation. Three models performed simulations of SSP5-8.5 to 2300: MRI-ESM2-0, IPSL-CM6A-LR, and CanESM5. We analyze these simulations to improve understanding of climate dynamics, rather than as plausible futures. In the model with the most warming, CanESM5, the moisture content of the planet more than doubles, and the hydrologic cycle increases in intensity. In CanESM5 and IPSL-CM6A-LR nearly all sea ice is eliminated in both summer and winter in both hemispheres. In all three models, the Hadley circulation weakens, the tropopause height rises, and storm tracks shift poleward, to varying degrees. We analyze the moist static energy transports in the simulations using a diffusive framework. The dry static energy flux decreases to compensate for the increased moisture transport; however the compensation is imperfect. The total atmospheric transport increases but not as quickly as expected with a constant diffusivity. The decrease in eddy intensity plays an important role in determining the energy transports, as do the pattern of cloud feedbacks and the strength of ocean circulations.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139817413","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Atmosphere and ocean energy transport in extreme warming scenarios","authors":"Alyssa N. Poletti, D. Frierson, Travis Aerenson, Akshaya C. Nikumbh, Rachel Carroll, William Henshaw, Jack Scheff","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000343","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000343","url":null,"abstract":"Extreme scenarios of global warming out to 2300 from the SSP5-8.5 extension scenario are analyzed in three state-of-the-art climate models, including two models with climate sensitivity greater than 4.5°C. The result is some of the largest warming amounts ever seen in simulations run over the historical record and into the future. The simulations exhibit between 9.3 and 17.5°C global mean temperature change between pre-Industrial and the end of the 23rd century. The extremely large changes in global temperature allow exploration of fundamental questions in climate dynamics, such as the determination of moisture and energy transports, and their relation to global atmosphere-ocean circulation. Three models performed simulations of SSP5-8.5 to 2300: MRI-ESM2-0, IPSL-CM6A-LR, and CanESM5. We analyze these simulations to improve understanding of climate dynamics, rather than as plausible futures. In the model with the most warming, CanESM5, the moisture content of the planet more than doubles, and the hydrologic cycle increases in intensity. In CanESM5 and IPSL-CM6A-LR nearly all sea ice is eliminated in both summer and winter in both hemispheres. In all three models, the Hadley circulation weakens, the tropopause height rises, and storm tracks shift poleward, to varying degrees. We analyze the moist static energy transports in the simulations using a diffusive framework. The dry static energy flux decreases to compensate for the increased moisture transport; however the compensation is imperfect. The total atmospheric transport increases but not as quickly as expected with a constant diffusivity. The decrease in eddy intensity plays an important role in determining the energy transports, as do the pattern of cloud feedbacks and the strength of ocean circulations.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"294 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139877263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Editorial Note: A panel data study on the effect of climate change on life expectancy","authors":"","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000368","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000368","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"25 27","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139600167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}