PLOS climate最新文献_第6页

Systematic mapping of climate and environmental framing experiments and re-analysis with computational methods points to omitted interaction bias 气候和环境框架实验的系统映射以及利用计算方法进行的重新分析表明存在遗漏的相互作用偏差

PLOS climate Pub Date : 2024-02-06 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000297

L. Fesenfeld, Liam F. Beiser‐McGrath, Yixian Sun, M. Wicki, Thomas Bernauer

{"title":"Systematic mapping of climate and environmental framing experiments and re-analysis with computational methods points to omitted interaction bias","authors":"L. Fesenfeld, Liam F. Beiser‐McGrath, Yixian Sun, M. Wicki, Thomas Bernauer","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000297","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000297","url":null,"abstract":"Ambitious climate policy requires acceptance by millions of people whose daily lives would be affected in costly ways. In turn, this requires an understanding of how to get the mass public on board and prevent a political backlash against costly climate policies. Many scholars regard ‘framing’, specially tailored messages emphasizing specific subsets of political arguments to certain population subgroups, as an effective communication strategy for changing climate beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors. In contrast, other scholars argue that people hold relatively stable opinions and doubt that framing can alter public opinion on salient issues like climate change. We contribute to this debate in two ways: First, we conduct a systematic mapping of 121 experimental studies on climate and environmental policy framing, published in 46 peer-reviewed journals and present results of a survey with authors of these studies. Second, we illustrate the use of novel computational methods to check for the robustness of subgroup effects and identify omitted interaction bias. We find that most experiments report significant main and subgroup effects but rarely use advanced methods to account for potential omitted interaction bias. Moreover, only a few studies make their data publicly available to easily replicate them. Our survey of framing researchers suggests that when scholars successfully publish non-significant effects, these were typically bundled together with other, significant effects to increase publication chances. Finally, using a Bayesian computational sparse regression technique, we offer an illustrative re-analysis of 10 studies focusing on subgroup framing differences by partisanship (a key driver of climate change attitudes) and show that these effects are often not robust when accounting for omitted interaction bias.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"383 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139858275","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Harnessing economic tools for Indigenous climate resilience: Insights from Arctic marine resources 利用经济工具提高土著居民的气候适应能力：北极海洋资源的启示

PLOS climate Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000342

M. Kourantidou

{"title":"Harnessing economic tools for Indigenous climate resilience: Insights from Arctic marine resources","authors":"M. Kourantidou","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000342","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000342","url":null,"abstract":"Economic tools remain under-used in addressing multiple challenges faced by indigenous communities in the rapidly changing Arctic. While there are multiple explanations for this under-use, perceptions that economic principles diverge from indigenous value systems and are rooted in Western paradigms limit the uptake of these tools to bolster resilience in the face of climate change. Nevertheless, Indigenous communities are expected to integrate their traditional systems with the historically imposed colonial systems of resource extraction to sustain their economies and community wellbeing that are challenged by environmental shifts and socioecological transitions. These changes manifest in resource use, availability and management and affect the ways Indigenous knowledge has traditionally guided resource exploitation decisions and practices. Using select examples, this paper argues that economic approaches to the management of marine resources have the potential to improve the well-being and resilience of indigenous Arctic communities. While more work is needed to tailor economic tools to the specific needs of indigenous people, the integration of resource economics and traditional approaches to resource management holds promise for strengthening Indigenous resilience in the face of the profound challenges posed by climate change.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"105 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139862986","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Harnessing economic tools for Indigenous climate resilience: Insights from Arctic marine resources 利用经济工具提高土著居民的气候适应能力：北极海洋资源的启示

PLOS climate Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000342

M. Kourantidou

{"title":"Harnessing economic tools for Indigenous climate resilience: Insights from Arctic marine resources","authors":"M. Kourantidou","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000342","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000342","url":null,"abstract":"Economic tools remain under-used in addressing multiple challenges faced by indigenous communities in the rapidly changing Arctic. While there are multiple explanations for this under-use, perceptions that economic principles diverge from indigenous value systems and are rooted in Western paradigms limit the uptake of these tools to bolster resilience in the face of climate change. Nevertheless, Indigenous communities are expected to integrate their traditional systems with the historically imposed colonial systems of resource extraction to sustain their economies and community wellbeing that are challenged by environmental shifts and socioecological transitions. These changes manifest in resource use, availability and management and affect the ways Indigenous knowledge has traditionally guided resource exploitation decisions and practices. Using select examples, this paper argues that economic approaches to the management of marine resources have the potential to improve the well-being and resilience of indigenous Arctic communities. While more work is needed to tailor economic tools to the specific needs of indigenous people, the integration of resource economics and traditional approaches to resource management holds promise for strengthening Indigenous resilience in the face of the profound challenges posed by climate change.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"56 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139803187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Atmosphere and ocean energy transport in extreme warming scenarios 极端变暖情景下的大气和海洋能量传输

PLOS climate Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000343

Alyssa N. Poletti, D. Frierson, Travis Aerenson, Akshaya C. Nikumbh, Rachel Carroll, William Henshaw, Jack Scheff

{"title":"Atmosphere and ocean energy transport in extreme warming scenarios","authors":"Alyssa N. Poletti, D. Frierson, Travis Aerenson, Akshaya C. Nikumbh, Rachel Carroll, William Henshaw, Jack Scheff","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000343","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000343","url":null,"abstract":"Extreme scenarios of global warming out to 2300 from the SSP5-8.5 extension scenario are analyzed in three state-of-the-art climate models, including two models with climate sensitivity greater than 4.5°C. The result is some of the largest warming amounts ever seen in simulations run over the historical record and into the future. The simulations exhibit between 9.3 and 17.5°C global mean temperature change between pre-Industrial and the end of the 23rd century. The extremely large changes in global temperature allow exploration of fundamental questions in climate dynamics, such as the determination of moisture and energy transports, and their relation to global atmosphere-ocean circulation. Three models performed simulations of SSP5-8.5 to 2300: MRI-ESM2-0, IPSL-CM6A-LR, and CanESM5. We analyze these simulations to improve understanding of climate dynamics, rather than as plausible futures. In the model with the most warming, CanESM5, the moisture content of the planet more than doubles, and the hydrologic cycle increases in intensity. In CanESM5 and IPSL-CM6A-LR nearly all sea ice is eliminated in both summer and winter in both hemispheres. In all three models, the Hadley circulation weakens, the tropopause height rises, and storm tracks shift poleward, to varying degrees. We analyze the moist static energy transports in the simulations using a diffusive framework. The dry static energy flux decreases to compensate for the increased moisture transport; however the compensation is imperfect. The total atmospheric transport increases but not as quickly as expected with a constant diffusivity. The decrease in eddy intensity plays an important role in determining the energy transports, as do the pattern of cloud feedbacks and the strength of ocean circulations.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139817413","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Atmosphere and ocean energy transport in extreme warming scenarios 极端变暖情景下的大气和海洋能量传输

PLOS climate Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000343

Alyssa N. Poletti, D. Frierson, Travis Aerenson, Akshaya C. Nikumbh, Rachel Carroll, William Henshaw, Jack Scheff

{"title":"Atmosphere and ocean energy transport in extreme warming scenarios","authors":"Alyssa N. Poletti, D. Frierson, Travis Aerenson, Akshaya C. Nikumbh, Rachel Carroll, William Henshaw, Jack Scheff","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000343","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000343","url":null,"abstract":"Extreme scenarios of global warming out to 2300 from the SSP5-8.5 extension scenario are analyzed in three state-of-the-art climate models, including two models with climate sensitivity greater than 4.5°C. The result is some of the largest warming amounts ever seen in simulations run over the historical record and into the future. The simulations exhibit between 9.3 and 17.5°C global mean temperature change between pre-Industrial and the end of the 23rd century. The extremely large changes in global temperature allow exploration of fundamental questions in climate dynamics, such as the determination of moisture and energy transports, and their relation to global atmosphere-ocean circulation. Three models performed simulations of SSP5-8.5 to 2300: MRI-ESM2-0, IPSL-CM6A-LR, and CanESM5. We analyze these simulations to improve understanding of climate dynamics, rather than as plausible futures. In the model with the most warming, CanESM5, the moisture content of the planet more than doubles, and the hydrologic cycle increases in intensity. In CanESM5 and IPSL-CM6A-LR nearly all sea ice is eliminated in both summer and winter in both hemispheres. In all three models, the Hadley circulation weakens, the tropopause height rises, and storm tracks shift poleward, to varying degrees. We analyze the moist static energy transports in the simulations using a diffusive framework. The dry static energy flux decreases to compensate for the increased moisture transport; however the compensation is imperfect. The total atmospheric transport increases but not as quickly as expected with a constant diffusivity. The decrease in eddy intensity plays an important role in determining the energy transports, as do the pattern of cloud feedbacks and the strength of ocean circulations.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"294 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139877263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Editorial Note: A panel data study on the effect of climate change on life expectancy 编者按：关于气候变化对预期寿命影响的面板数据研究

PLOS climate Pub Date : 2024-01-24 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000368

引用次数: 0

COP28: Loss and damage, fossil fuels and the limits of climate diplomacy COP28: 损失与损害、化石燃料与气候外交的局限性

PLOS climate Pub Date : 2024-01-23 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000351

Paul G. Harris

引用次数: 0

A panel data study on the effect of climate change on life expectancy 气候变化对预期寿命影响的面板数据研究

PLOS climate Pub Date : 2024-01-18 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000339

Amit Roy

{"title":"A panel data study on the effect of climate change on life expectancy","authors":"Amit Roy","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000339","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000339","url":null,"abstract":"The life and health of billions of people is endangered by climate change today. Life expectancy is generally used as the best metric for assessing the population health status of a nation. Against this backdrop, this paper investigates the effect of climate change on life expectancy using the panel data model. To do so, imprimis, this paper develops a conceptual framework linking direct and indirect pathways by which climate change affects health. The direct pathways are through weather variables and natural disasters. The indirect pathways are mediated through economic systems and ecosystems. Then this paper estimates the effect of climate change on life expectancy using cross-national data from 191 countries covering the period 1940–2020 and employing the fixed-effect method. The finding of this study suggests that if the annual average temperature increases by 1°C, then the life expectancy at birth will decline by 0.44 years. Moreover, the temperature rise will further negatively impact life expectancy by interacting with the rainfall cycle. If the composite climate change index, an index of the geometric mean of temperature and rainfall, increases by 10 points, the life expectancy at birth will decline by 0.50 years. Moreover, climate change will disproportionately reduce the life expectancy of females more than the life expectancy of males. A negative relationship between a composite climate change index and life expectancy underscores the urgency of addressing climate change as a public health crisis. Mitigation efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to changing conditions are essential to minimize the health risks associated with climate change. Thus, countries should come forward with prompt initiatives to contain global temperature rise and protect the health of the population on the verge of climate change.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"109 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139614407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Climate change impact on Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) life cycle in Mozambique 气候变化对莫桑比克 Spodoptera frugiperda（鳞翅目：夜蛾科）生命周期的影响

PLOS climate Pub Date : 2024-01-18 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000325

T. Sumila, Simone Ferraz, Angelica Durigon

{"title":"Climate change impact on Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) life cycle in Mozambique","authors":"T. Sumila, Simone Ferraz, Angelica Durigon","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000325","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000325","url":null,"abstract":"Although different seasonal cues are important for fall armyworm (FAW, Spodoptera frugiperda J.E. Smith) survival, it is known that the life cycle of this insect is strongly dependent on air temperature, means that its development rate proceeds faster when the weather is warm. To develops the insect needs to accumulate an amount of thermal units, as known as Growing Degree-Days (GDD). However, with the climate change driven by global warming, the GDD pattern must be changed and therefore, the life cycle of this new bug in Mozambique may be different from that observed in its native region. In the present study it is estimated the possible changes of FAW life cycle by applying the GDD method over Mozambique, under two representative scenarios of climate changes, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for 2070–2099 relative to present climate (1971–2000). For this purpose, dynamical downscaling process through the regional model RegCM4, nested to global model HadGEM2 were used. The outputs of air temperature dataset from the simulations were used to compute the accumulated GDD and hence the FAW number of generations (NG) during the summer-season over the study domain. The findings indicate that there is a bipolar pattern of GDD accumulation, being negative over most of central and restricted areas in southern region, and positive in northern region, altitude-modified climate areas over central region, and over southernmost areas for both representative climate scenarios, relative to present climate. Meanwhile, there is an increase (decrease) in NG in the areas of higher (lower) increase in air temperature for both future scenarios relative to present climate.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"123 19","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139616043","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Sea otter recovery buffers century-scale declines in California kelp forests 海獭的恢复缓冲了加利福尼亚海藻森林百年规模的衰退

PLOS climate Pub Date : 2024-01-18 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000290

Teri E. Nicholson, Loren McClenachan, Kisei R. Tanaka, Kyle S. Van Houtan

{"title":"Sea otter recovery buffers century-scale declines in California kelp forests","authors":"Teri E. Nicholson, Loren McClenachan, Kisei R. Tanaka, Kyle S. Van Houtan","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000290","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000290","url":null,"abstract":"The status of kelp forests and their vulnerability to climate change are of global significance. As the foundation for productive and extensive ecosystems, understanding long-term kelp forest trends is critical to coastal ecosystem management, climate resiliency, and restoration programs. In this study, we curate historical US government kelp canopy inventories, develop methods to compare them with contemporary surveys, and use a machine learning framework to evaluate and rank the drivers of change for California kelp forests over the last century. Historical surveys documented Macrocystis and Nereocystis kelp forests covered approximately 120.4 km2 in 1910–1912, which is only slightly above surveys in 2014–2016 (112.0 km2). These statewide comparisons, however, mask dramatic regional changes with increases in Central California (+57.6%, +19.7 km2) and losses along the Northern (-63.0%, -8.1 km2), and Southern (-52.1%, -18.3 km2) mainland coastlines. Random Forest models rank sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) population density as the primary driver of kelp changes, with benthic substrate, extreme heat, and high annual variation in primary productivity also significant. This century-scale perspective identifies dramatically different outcomes for California’s kelp forests, providing a blueprint for nature-based solutions that enhance coastal resilience to climate change.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"107 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139615382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0