International Journal of Biometeorology最新文献

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The effect of heatwave and cold spell on cardiovascular disease mortality in central China, 2018-2022. 2018-2022年中国中部地区热浪和寒潮对心血管疾病死亡率的影响
IF 3 3区 地球科学
International Journal of Biometeorology Pub Date : 2024-12-03 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-024-02836-w
Ling-Shuang Lv, Li Yin, Yuan Liu, Chun-Liang Zhou, Ji Hu, Ning An, Xian Xie, Xing-E Zhang, Min Zhang, Xiu-Ying Liu
{"title":"The effect of heatwave and cold spell on cardiovascular disease mortality in central China, 2018-2022.","authors":"Ling-Shuang Lv, Li Yin, Yuan Liu, Chun-Liang Zhou, Ji Hu, Ning An, Xian Xie, Xing-E Zhang, Min Zhang, Xiu-Ying Liu","doi":"10.1007/s00484-024-02836-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-024-02836-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Heatwave and cold spell have been linked to cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. However, due to the varying definitions of heatwave and cold spell, their impacts on CVD mortality are inconsistent.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A time series study in Hunan province, central of China, from 2018 to 2022, was conducted to test the relationship between heatwave, cold spell and CVD mortality. According to different percentiles of daily mean temperatures and exposure duration, we built 9 kind of definitions for heatwave and cold spell. Distributed lag non-linear model was used to analyze the associations between heatwave, cold spell and CVD mortality, and the attributable fraction (AF) were estimated.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The relative risks of CVD mortality associated with heatwave and cold spell varied depending on the definitions, ranging from 1.154 (95% CI: 1.148-1.160) to 1.229 (95% CI: 1.215-1.243) for heatwaves, and from 1.196 (95% CI: 1.192-1.201) to 1.290 (95% CI: 1.282-1.297) for cold spells. Under the definition of 95th percentile with ≥ 4-d duration (P95_4d), the total AF of CVD mortality attributable to heatwave was the largest at 8.43 (95% CI: 7.92-8.94). For the definition of 5th percentile with ≥ 3-d duration (P5_3d), the total AF attributable to cold spell was the largest at 12.96 (95% CI: 12.64-13.28). For heatwave and cold spell, higher CVD mortality risks were observed in females and the elderly over 75 years than males and young people.</p><p><strong>Discussion: </strong>We found that both heatwave and cold spell could increase the mortality risk of CVD. The results highlight the importance of implementing warning systems for extreme temperature.</p>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142764795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Effect of repeated hot and cold stimulation for the neck and shoulders on muscle fatigue recovery: a pilot study. 颈部和肩部反复冷热刺激对肌肉疲劳恢复的影响:一项试点研究。
IF 3 3区 地球科学
International Journal of Biometeorology Pub Date : 2024-11-28 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-024-02834-y
Ryoko Nomura, Mika Kamiya, Maki Sato, Natsuki Nakayama, Kei Watanabe, Tomohisa Kato, Satoshi Iwase
{"title":"Effect of repeated hot and cold stimulation for the neck and shoulders on muscle fatigue recovery: a pilot study.","authors":"Ryoko Nomura, Mika Kamiya, Maki Sato, Natsuki Nakayama, Kei Watanabe, Tomohisa Kato, Satoshi Iwase","doi":"10.1007/s00484-024-02834-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-024-02834-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Increased use of electronic devices such as smartphones has led to an increase in neck and shoulder stiffness to the forefront of the public people. It is said that prolonged posture with the head tilted forward causes excessive muscle activity in the head and neck region, resulting in muscle fatigue symptoms such as stiff shoulders. Various bathing methods have been proposed as a means of recovering from muscle stiffness, and in particular, contrast water therapy (CWT) is said to be highly effective in recovering from muscle fatigue. In the present study, we examined the effect of CWT with hot and cold stimulation of the neck and shoulders (CWTNS) on muscle fatigue recovery. As the result, in the CWTNS condition, the effects of vasodilation and vasoconstriction were observed, and muscle hardness was significantly lower than that in the Control condition in 20 subjects (2 males, 18 females). Stress hormones were also decreased during and after bathing compared to those before bathing. These results motivate further exploration of the possibility that the effects of CWTNS could be muscle-recovery without high stress load.</p>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142738234","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Health resort medicine: a new model for promoting longevity and healthy aging. 健康度假医学:促进长寿和健康老龄化的新模式。
IF 3 3区 地球科学
International Journal of Biometeorology Pub Date : 2024-11-28 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-024-02837-9
Maria Chiara Maccarone, Gianluca Regazzo, Anna Scanu, Stefano Masiero
{"title":"Health resort medicine: a new model for promoting longevity and healthy aging.","authors":"Maria Chiara Maccarone, Gianluca Regazzo, Anna Scanu, Stefano Masiero","doi":"10.1007/s00484-024-02837-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-024-02837-9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142738242","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Gross primary productivity estimation through remote sensing and machine learning techniques in the high Andean Region of Ecuador. 通过遥感和机器学习技术估算厄瓜多尔安第斯高原地区的总初级生产力。
IF 3 3区 地球科学
International Journal of Biometeorology Pub Date : 2024-11-27 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-024-02832-0
Cindy Urgilés, Johanna Orellana-Alvear, Patricio Crespo, Galo Carrillo-Rojas
{"title":"Gross primary productivity estimation through remote sensing and machine learning techniques in the high Andean Region of Ecuador.","authors":"Cindy Urgilés, Johanna Orellana-Alvear, Patricio Crespo, Galo Carrillo-Rojas","doi":"10.1007/s00484-024-02832-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-024-02832-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Accurately estimating gross primary productivity (GPP) is crucial for simulating the carbon cycle and addressing the challenges of climate change. However, estimating GPP is challenging due to the absence of direct measurements at scales larger than the leaf level. To overcome this challenge, researchers have developed indirect methods such as remote sensing and modeling approaches. This study estimated GPP in a humid páramo ecosystem in the Andean Mountains using machine learning models (ML), specifically Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Regression (SVR), and compared them with traditional models. The study's objective was to analyze the strength and complex nonlinear relationships that govern GPP and to perform an uncertainty analysis for future climate projections. The methodology used to estimate GPP showed that ML-based models outperformed traditional models. The performance of ML models varied significantly among seasons, with the correlation coefficient (R) ranging from 0.24 to 0.86. The RF model performed better in capturing the temporal changes and magnitude of GPP in the less humid season, displaying the highest R (0.86), lowest root mean squared error (0.37 g C*m<sup>-2</sup>), and percentage bias (-3%). Additionally, the analysis indicates that solar radiation is the primary predictor of GPP in the páramo biome, rather than water. The study presents a method for deriving daily GPP fluxes and evaluates the impact of various variables on GPP estimates. This information can be employed in the development of vegetation prediction models.</p>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142724588","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Mapping tree canopy thermal refugia for birds using biophysical models and LiDAR. 利用生物物理模型和激光雷达绘制鸟类的树冠热庇护所图。
IF 3 3区 地球科学
International Journal of Biometeorology Pub Date : 2024-11-25 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-024-02833-z
Lara H Strydom, Shannon R Conradie, Izak P J Smit, Michelle Greve, Peter B Boucher, Andrew B Davies, Andrew E McKechnie
{"title":"Mapping tree canopy thermal refugia for birds using biophysical models and LiDAR.","authors":"Lara H Strydom, Shannon R Conradie, Izak P J Smit, Michelle Greve, Peter B Boucher, Andrew B Davies, Andrew E McKechnie","doi":"10.1007/s00484-024-02833-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-024-02833-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Accurately predicting exposure of animals to climate change requires evaluating the effects of warming on the microclimates they occupy. Birds, like many other taxa, make extensive use of cool microsites in vegetation during hot weather. Taking advantage of recent advances in modelling tree canopy microclimates, we combined LiDAR-based individual tree canopy mapping and biophysical modelling to evaluate the current and future availability of cool microsites in a subtropical African savanna landscape. We constructed biophysical models for two common bird species, an ~ 40-g bulbul and an ~ 200-g hornbill, and modelled exposure to conditions under which the body temperature (T<sub>b</sub>) of individuals resting in canopies exceeds 42 °C, equivalent to ~ 2 °C above resting thermoneutral T<sub>b</sub>. At present, 34.5% of trees taller than 2 m in our 139-ha study site provide microclimates in which resting T<sub>b</sub> remained below 42 °C for both species during our study period. Under a Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate change scenario and assuming no change in vegetation structure, by the end of the Century the availability of microsites characterized by T<sub>b</sub> < 42 °C will decrease to just 0.4% and 3.8% for bulbuls and hornbills, respectively. The proportion of trees in whose canopies bulbuls' and hornbills' exposure to T<sub>b</sub> > 42 °C is limited to < 10 d summer<sup>- 1</sup> will decrease from 98 to 99% currently to 3.0% and 24.3% by end-century, respectively. These findings reveal the magnitude of changes for birds in a savanna thermal landscape under a business-as-usual emissions scenario.</p>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142708711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Association between nighttime and daytime ambient temperature and insomnia using national emergency department database in the capital city of South Korea. 利用韩国首都的全国急诊科数据库,研究夜间和白天环境温度与失眠之间的关系。
IF 3 3区 地球科学
International Journal of Biometeorology Pub Date : 2024-11-25 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-024-02831-1
Sunwoo Kang, Gyeongchan Kim, Subin Jeong, Woojae Myung, Hyewon Lee
{"title":"Association between nighttime and daytime ambient temperature and insomnia using national emergency department database in the capital city of South Korea.","authors":"Sunwoo Kang, Gyeongchan Kim, Subin Jeong, Woojae Myung, Hyewon Lee","doi":"10.1007/s00484-024-02831-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-024-02831-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Insomnia is a growing health concern globally, with significant implications for public health. Most studies have primarily focused on the effects of nighttime temperatures on sleep problems. However, there is a lack of studies comparing nighttime temperatures with daytime temperatures, which are more closely related to daily life activities. This study aimed to explore a short-term association of nighttime and daytime ambient temperature with emergency department (ED) visits for insomnia in the capital city of South Korea. A time-stratified case-crossover design was employed using a conditional logistic regression model. A distributed lag non-linear model was utilized to explore potential non-linear and lag effects of ambient temperature on ED visits for insomnia. Odds ratio (OR) for temperature with maximum ED visits for insomnia (MaxIT) and that for temperature with minimum ED visits for insomnia (MinIT) were calculated and compared. We observed significant associations at high temperatures for both nighttime and daytime (nighttime: 25.0℃ (94.1%) [OR: 1.82, 95% CIs: 1.31-2.55], daytime: 30.6℃ (99.0%) [OR: 2.13, 95% CIs: 1.49-3.06]) compared to MinIT (-8.5℃ (2.7%) and - 8.4℃ (1.0%), respectively). Subgroup analyses found significant associations at high temperatures in females, individuals aged 35-49, and those without comorbidities, and during spring, fall, and winter, for both daytime and nighttime. Our findings provide insights for proactive public health strategies for managing insomnia during global temperature rise.</p>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142708604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Definition of reproductive structures in Eucalyptus for phenological data collection. 为收集物候数据定义桉树的生殖结构。
IF 3 3区 地球科学
International Journal of Biometeorology Pub Date : 2024-11-14 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-024-02820-4
Claudia Helena Giraldo Escobar, Marie R Keatley, Sabine Kasel, Julian Di Stefano, Craig R Nitschke
{"title":"Definition of reproductive structures in Eucalyptus for phenological data collection.","authors":"Claudia Helena Giraldo Escobar, Marie R Keatley, Sabine Kasel, Julian Di Stefano, Craig R Nitschke","doi":"10.1007/s00484-024-02820-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-024-02820-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In an era where global climate change is shifting plant phenology, global meta-analyses of multiple species are required more than ever. Common language or references for enhanced data compatibility are key for such analyses. Although the Plant Phenology Ontology (PPO) addresses this challenge, it does not capture several relevant reproductive structures that are critical in species with long reproductive cycles, like many Eucalyptus species. We reviewed the terminology and concepts that describe reproductive structures in eucalypts and compared them with the existing classes of the PPO to explore the PPO's potential for harmonizing disparate eucalypt datasets. We identified incongruencies within and between eucalypt terminology and the PPO. We tested the sensitivity of the PPO for capturing key eucalypt phenological structures and found it sensitive to classification of certain structures. To address these limitations, we developed the Eucalyptus Phenology Ontology (EPO), a new ontology that builds on the PPO and captures key reproductive structures using a more refined classification. The EPO integrates the relationships between reproductive structures, phenological stages, and phenological traits. The vocabulary is species-neutral so it can be applied to other taxa but specifies the synonyms and descriptions required to capture the complexity of eucalypt phenology.</p>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142611618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Heat Shock Proteins expression in malaria and dengue vector 疟疾和登革热病媒中热休克蛋白的表达。
IF 3 3区 地球科学
International Journal of Biometeorology Pub Date : 2024-11-11 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-024-02806-2
Poonam Singh, Shweta Pasi, Veena Pande, Ramesh C. Dhiman
{"title":"Heat Shock Proteins expression in malaria and dengue vector","authors":"Poonam Singh,&nbsp;Shweta Pasi,&nbsp;Veena Pande,&nbsp;Ramesh C. Dhiman","doi":"10.1007/s00484-024-02806-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-024-02806-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The survival of mosquitoes under changing climatic conditions particularly temperature, is known to be supported by Heat Shock Proteins (HSPs). In view of climate change, it is imperative to know whether the mosquito vectors will be able to withstand the increased temperatures or perish. Therefore, the present study was undertaken on the expression of <i>HSPs’</i> gene in <i>An. stephensi</i> and <i>Ae. aegypti</i> by exposing them to temperatures ranging from 5 to 45°C for 15-180-minutes for once and continuously or with rest in between. We compared the temperature-tolerance of both the vectors in terms of expression of <i>HSP83</i>,<i> HSP70</i>, and <i>HSP26</i> genes at varying degrees of temperature and duration. <i>HSP70</i> and <i>HSP26</i> were found distinctively expressed in both the vectors as compared to HSP83. With continuous exposure up to 180-minutes at 35°C and 40°C, <i>HSP70</i> was found upregulated up to 35 and 47 folds in <i>Ae. aegypti</i> while in <i>An. stephensi</i>, the expression was only 1 fold. Between the genes, <i>HSP70</i> was highly expressed at different temperatures followed by <i>HSP26</i> and <i>HSP83</i>. The manifold up-regulation of HSP genes in <i>Ae. aegypti</i> than <i>An. stephensi</i> may be attributed to the robustness of <i>Aedes</i> vector in terms of temperature tolerance. This study has shown that <i>Ae. aegypti</i> and <i>An. stephensi</i> can withstand considerable temperature stress by expressing <i>HSPs </i>when exposed to variable temperature and duration. In view of changing climate, the study provides a clue that the vector of dengue and zika virus will be difficult to control.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"69 1","pages":"225 - 232"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142611664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Pollen season variations among anemophilous species in an Atlantic-influenced mediterranean environment: a long term study (1993–2022) 受大西洋影响的地中海环境中嗜风媒物种的花粉季节变化:一项长期研究(1993-2022 年)。
IF 3 3区 地球科学
International Journal of Biometeorology Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-024-02796-1
Nuria Montiel, Pablo J. Hidalgo, José Antonio Adame, Francisco González-Minero
{"title":"Pollen season variations among anemophilous species in an Atlantic-influenced mediterranean environment: a long term study (1993–2022)","authors":"Nuria Montiel,&nbsp;Pablo J. Hidalgo,&nbsp;José Antonio Adame,&nbsp;Francisco González-Minero","doi":"10.1007/s00484-024-02796-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-024-02796-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Numerous studies have shown that climate change is impacting the airborne pollen concentration of various anemophilous plant species, both herbaceous and woody. The aim of this study was to determine whether this trend, highly marked in Europe, is also occurring in the city of Huelva (south-western Spain), an area with a milder Mediterranean climate. The factors influencing the main pollen season were studied for all local taxa accounting for more than 1% of the total pollen collected, over the period 1993–2022, using a volumetric Hirst type trap to determine concentration. The study included a trend analysis of meteorological variables susceptible to climate change, specifically maximum, minimum and average temperature, precipitation and the number of hours of insolation per day. Although some of the variables analysed do not show significant trends for most taxa, such as start date or peak date, the overall results indicate a trend in the airborne pollen dynamics for herbaceous and woody taxa. Six of the eight woody taxa studied showed a significant trend towards increased pollen concentration, some of which are associated with temperature in previous seasons. In contrast, three of the five herbaceous taxa, which are more sensitive to short term meteorological variables, show a significant acceleration in the end date of the main pollen season, correlated negatively with temperature and insolation. In conclusion, some incipient changes are occurring, which may be indicative of future consequences on biodiversity in the Mediterranean area influenced by the Atlantic Ocean.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"69 1","pages":"109 - 122"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00484-024-02796-1.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142602777","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Barley vulnerability to climate change: perspectives for cultivation in South America 大麦对气候变化的脆弱性:南美洲的种植前景。
IF 3 3区 地球科学
International Journal of Biometeorology Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-024-02798-z
Lucas Eduardo de Oliveira Aparecido, Guilherme Botega Torsoni, Pedro Antonio Lorençone, João Antonio Lorençone, Glauco de Souza Rolim
{"title":"Barley vulnerability to climate change: perspectives for cultivation in South America","authors":"Lucas Eduardo de Oliveira Aparecido,&nbsp;Guilherme Botega Torsoni,&nbsp;Pedro Antonio Lorençone,&nbsp;João Antonio Lorençone,&nbsp;Glauco de Souza Rolim","doi":"10.1007/s00484-024-02798-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-024-02798-z","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Barley (Hordeum vulgare) is a globally significant cereal crop, widely used in both food production and brewing. However, it is particularly vulnerable to climate change, especially extreme temperature fluctuations, which can severely reduce yields. To address this challenge, a detailed climate zoning study was conducted to assess the suitability of barley production areas across South America, considering both current conditions and future climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The study utilized historical climate data along with projections from the CMIP6 IPSL-CM6A-LR model for the period 2021–2100. Several indices, such as evapotranspiration, were calculated, and factors like soil composition and topography were integrated into the classification of regions based on their agricultural potential. Critical variables in this assessment included temperature, precipitation, and water or thermal excess. The results showed that 6.59% of South America's territory is currently suitable for barley cultivation without additional irrigation, with these regions concentrated primarily in temperate southern areas. In contrast, 18.62% of the region is already unsuitable due to excessive heat. Projections under future climate scenarios indicate a shrinking of suitable areas, alongside an expansion of unsuitable regions. In the worst-case scenario, only 1.48% of the territory would remain viable for barley farming. These findings emphasize the crop's vulnerability to climate change, underscoring the urgency of developing agricultural adaptation strategies. The predicted contraction in suitable barley cultivation areas demonstrates the profound impact of climate change on agriculture and highlights the need for proactive measures to ensure sustainable barley production in South America.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"69 1","pages":"123 - 136"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142581558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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