Predicting the global invasion risk of ambrosia beetle Euplatypus parallelus under climate change based on CMIP6 projections.

Abstract

Euplatypus parallelus (Fabricius, 1801) is a highly destructive invasive insect pest endemic to the Neotropics, causing economic and ecological damage to natural forests, plantations, and fruit trees. We employed the MaxEnt model to predict the global suitability of E. parallelus under current and future scenarios based on the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) 126 and SSP585 in 2050 and 2070, utilizing the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset. The model demonstrated remarkable performance achieving AUC values of 0.964 and 0.957, TSS of 0.841 and 0.796, and CBI of 0.967 and 0.928 during model calibration and validation, respectively. The temperature seasonality BIO4 (43.8%), annual precipitation BIO12 (31.2%), and minimum temperature of the coldest month BIO6 (14.7) were the most significant bioclimatic variables affecting the distribution of E. parallelus. The model shows that the maximum suitability of E. parallelus is primarily concentrated in Asia, Africa, and South America. Future climate change predicts a 12.85% expansion in suitable habitat areas for E. parallelus. Our predictions demonstrate that the biological suitability and global potential spread of E. parallelus would increase under the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios in 2050 and 2070. The study findings will help the researchers, policymakers, and academicians to plan, develop, and implement effective preventive strategies to combat the spread and infestation of E. parallelus.