Changes in extreme climate events during the tobacco growing season and risk assessment of climate disasters: A case study in Southwest China.

Tobacco is an important economic crop globally, yet its production is increasingly threatened by extreme climate events, which affect both yield and quality. This study explores the temporal and spatial evolution of extreme climate events during the tobacco growing season in Southwest China and assesses associated climate disaster risks. By applying a range of extreme climate indices, spatial analysis techniques, and a climate disaster risk assessment model, the study identifies significant trends in future climate scenarios. The results indicate that indicators such as TN13 and TN20 exhibit a marked decreasing trend, while TX32, TXx, and TNn show upward trends, particularly in long-term projections. Extreme precipitation events demonstrate variability, yet an overall upward trend is evident. Spatial analysis reveals notable regional variations, with high-risk areas concentrated in the western, southern, and eastern regions, and low-risk zones in the central area. The climate disaster risk assessment indicates an expansion of medium to high-risk areas under future climate scenarios. These findings provide critical insights for climate adaptation strategies in tobacco production, underscoring the need for dynamic monitoring and early warning systems to support the sustainable development of the tobacco industry and safeguard farmers' livelihoods.