Seasonally disparate responses of surface thermal environment to land use/land cover patterns: a case study of central urban area of Jinan city, China.

Land use/land cover (LULC) changes exacerbate urban heat island (UHI) effect, leading to ecological and environmental problems. LULC patterns exhibit different driving mechanisms on land surface thermal environments across different seasons. However, so far, quantitative research distinguishing seasonal differences in LULC patterns at the landscape and class levels in relation to land surface temperature (LST) has remained limited. This paper applies the boosted regression trees (BRT) model and structural equation models (SEM) to investigate the seasonal variations in LST response to LULC patterns. The research findings indicated substantial seasonal variations in the response of LST to LULC. Pronounced cropland heat island effect was observed during spring and winter, whereas the heat island effect of built-up areas was pronounced during summer and autumn. The impacts of LULC indices on LST generally showed threshold effects, and clear interactions between different influencing factors were observed. An increase in core area percentage of landscape (CPLAND) or patch cohesion index (COHESION), when interacting with percentage of landscape (PLAND), notably enhanced LST variations. The impacts of landscape patterns across all LULC types on LST were pronounced and predominantly direct throughout all seasons. The variations in LST were dominated by the landscape patterns of built-up areas and forestland during summer and autumn, while the landscape patterns of cropland and forestland predominantly determined LST in spring, and the LST in winter was mainly influenced by the landscape patterns of cropland and water. This study provides insights into how LULC regulates urban thermal environment.