{"title":"Effects of proppant distribution on fracture permeability in Kiwigana shale reservoirs","authors":"Hyunsang Yoo, Junggyun Kim, Jeonghwan Lee","doi":"10.1007/s12665-025-12275-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12665-025-12275-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study investigates the effect of proppant distribution on fracture permeability in shale gas reservoirs. Kiwigana shale was used to measure fracture permeability with 40/70 mesh and 100 mesh proppants under various overburden pressure conditions. Different proppant distributions were placed in artificially fractured shale cores for the experiments. The experimental results showed that fracture permeability increased with larger proppant sizes and higher proppant distributions but decreased with higher overburden pressures. In scenarios with the lowest proppant distribution, the fracture permeability rapidly diminished at high overburden pressures. This was attributed to insufficient distribution of proppants supporting the fracture area, leading to embedding in the fracture surface of shale core. Furthermore, fracture propagation sections were categorized based on the proppant distribution and size. Sections further from the hydraulic fracturing point exhibited lower fracture permeability. Based on these findings, a methodology was proposed to determine the fracture permeability reduction factor according to the fracture sections categorized by proppant distribution and size. The reduction factor gradually decreased with increasing reservoir pressure and proppant distribution. This proposed methodology can be used as an input data for the evaluation of the shale gas production. Thus, considering the changes in fracture permeability due to proppant and reservoir pressure is essential for assessing production performance in hydraulically fractured shale gas reservoirs.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":542,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Earth Sciences","volume":"84 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143888566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Mapping landslide susceptibility in the Eastern Mediterranean mountainous region: a machine learning perspective","authors":"Hazem Ghassan Abdo, Sahar Mohammed Richi, Pankaj Prasad, Okan Mert Katipoğlu, Bijay Halder, Arman Niknam, Hoang Thi Hang, Maged Muteb Alharbi, Javed Mallick","doi":"10.1007/s12665-025-12242-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12665-025-12242-z","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Assessing landslide susceptibility is essential in urban planning and risk management. In the context of the Eastern Mediterranean region, there is a continuing need to compare the performance of machine learning (ML) algorithms in predicting landslide susceptibility, which can improve landslide risk management measures. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate and compare the predictive capabilities of three ML models: Multilayer perceptron (MLP), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models, in evaluating the susceptibility of various types of landslides and to refine the combination of causal factors. An evaluation of 19 conditioning factors, including topographical, geological, and environmental variables, was conducted to assess their effects on landslide susceptibility in different models in a geographic information system (GIS) environment. The results show that \"Elevation\" and \"Slope\" were consistently identified as the most influential factors in all models, with MLP demonstrating the greatest sensitivity to \"Elevation.\" The study area was divided into five susceptibility categories: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. According to the LGBM model, 24.27% of the area was classified as \"very low\" susceptibility, while the XGBoost and MLP models identified 25.69% and 27.28%, respectively. On the other hand, the \"very high\" susceptibility category covered 19.57%, 20.31%, and 19.78% of the area for the LGBM, XGBoost, and MLP models, respectively. The AUC-ROC approach has been utilized to evaluate, validate, and compare the performance of different ML models. Our study found AUC values for three MLTs. These findings suggest that all models demonstrate reasonable accuracy in identifying susceptible zones, and XGBoost demonstrated the best performance among the MLTs, with an AUC of 92.6% compared to the others. The insights gained from this study can inform targeted mitigation strategies to reduce landslide risks in Lebanon.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":542,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Earth Sciences","volume":"84 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143888579","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Shabnam Choudhary, Syed Mohammad Saalim, Rahul Mohan
{"title":"Geochemistry and mineralogy of modern fjord sediments, west Spitsbergen, Svalbard: implications for provenance and weathering","authors":"Shabnam Choudhary, Syed Mohammad Saalim, Rahul Mohan","doi":"10.1007/s12665-025-12251-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12665-025-12251-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Arctic fjords are ideal sites for studying the recent sedimentary process that affects high-latitude coastal ecosystems. High latitude Raudfjord, Magdalenefjord, and St. Jonsfjord from the west Spitsbergen, Svalbard have been investigated to assess the source and distribution of clay minerals, weathering processes, and geochemistry of major elements. The results showed illite to be the dominant clay mineral group, followed by chlorite and kaolinite, suggesting physical rather than chemical weathering is prominent in the region, also supported by a decrease in the illite chemistry and an increase in illite crystallinity (0.18°Δ2θ). The mineralogical proxies, along with the K<sub>2</sub>O/(Na<sub>2</sub>O+CaO) molar ratio, chemical index of alteration (CIA), and major elements, suggested hydrolysis of plagioclase (enrichment of Ca and Na) as compared to the K-feldspar. An appreciable amount of plagioclase (21–40%) in the fjord sediment samples suggested a mostly fresh source of sediment, which was confirmed by the low Plagioclase Index of Alteration (PIA). Hydrodynamic mineralogical sorting primarily controls the inorganic geochemical composition of the fjord sediments. Our results suggest that cold and dry climate conditions and lithology significantly controlled weathering and erosion processes in high Arctic fjords. Strong physical weathering caused by glacial activities is responsible for the large availability of primary minerals and low abundance of secondary minerals in these fjords.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":542,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Earth Sciences","volume":"84 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143888567","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Variability of irrigation water quality in an agro-industrial karst landscape: 2003–2023","authors":"Marbeya González-Mancillas, Javier Orlando Mijangos-Cortés, Hector Estrada-Medina, Daniela Ortega-Camacho, Eduardo Cejudo","doi":"10.1007/s12665-025-12267-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12665-025-12267-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Groundwater used for irrigation in agriculture changes its quality depending on the number of substances that reach it from different sources. The use of irrigation indices is a tool to improve crop yield and to distinguish risks of salinization and alkalinization of soils due to negative effects of the quality of the irrigation water. In the present research, we assessed the quality of groundwater for irrigation in an agro-industrial karst landscape in Yucatan (Mexico), whose main activities are livestock rearing and forage grass production, to identify changes in irrigation water quality for the period 2003–2023. We evaluated the indices of Sodium Absorption Ratio (SAR), Cation Ratio of Structural Stability (CROSS), Residual Sodium Carbonate (RSC), Effective Salinity (ES), and Potential Salinity (PS). We obtained that the quality of the water for irrigation has experienced changes in these 20 years, oscillating from good to acceptable, being the main driver of the changes observed in the meteorological drought, accompanied by fertilization and non-supervised extended irrigation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":542,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Earth Sciences","volume":"84 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143888581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tobias Schnepper, Krzysztof Kapusta, Aleksandra Strugała-Wilczek, Christos Roumpos, Georgios Louloudis, Eleni Mertiri, Konstantina Pyrgaki, Jaroslaw Darmosz, Dorota Orkisz, Dariusz Najgebauer, Dariusz Kowalczyk, Thomas Kempka
{"title":"Potential hydrochemical impacts of pumped hydropower storage operation in two European coal regions in transition: the Szczerców-Bełchatów mining complex, Poland, and the Kardia Mine, Greece","authors":"Tobias Schnepper, Krzysztof Kapusta, Aleksandra Strugała-Wilczek, Christos Roumpos, Georgios Louloudis, Eleni Mertiri, Konstantina Pyrgaki, Jaroslaw Darmosz, Dorota Orkisz, Dariusz Najgebauer, Dariusz Kowalczyk, Thomas Kempka","doi":"10.1007/s12665-025-12198-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12665-025-12198-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Energy storage plays a vital role in stabilising electric grids incorporating renewable energy sources like wind and solar, which are inherently intermittent. Among the most effective and widely used large-scale energy storage solutions are pumped hydropower storage systems (PHS), known for their high efficiency and capacity. Implementing PHS technology in decommissioned open-pit lignite mines involves creating a high-altitude reservoir and a lower reservoir within the open-pit mine. This system can lead to water exchange between the reservoirs and nearby contamination of adjacent groundwater aquifers from pyrite oxidation products like sulphate leached from open-pit sediments. A quantification of hydrogeochemical impacts resulting from PHS operation is essential to comply with national and EU water quality regulations. In this work a novel reaction path modelling framework was utilised to assess these effects of two potential PHS systems in the Kardia mine (Greece) and the Szczerców-Bełchatów mining complex (Poland). The simulations cover the site-specific evolution of the hydrochemistry of the reservoir water and groundwater during operation. The results show that the impact of the PHS on the pH and sulphate concentrations at the Greek site will be low. Sufficient buffer capacities and impermeable sediments in the reservoir-sediment interface layer limit water quality deteriorations. At the Polish site, the reservoir size of 1.75 bn <span>(hbox {m}^{3})</span> and continuous dilution from groundwater reduce the impact of pyrite oxidation from PHS operation. Therefore, from a hydrochemical point of view, the operation of PHS at the two sites will have negligible impacts on the water quality and the technical infrastructure of the facilities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":542,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Earth Sciences","volume":"84 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s12665-025-12198-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143888568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Imanuel Lawmchullova, Jonathan Lalrinawma, Lal Rinkimi, Joseph Lalngaihawma, Ch. Udaya Bhaskara Rao, Brototi Biswas
{"title":"Un-planned urban growth monitoring from 1991 to 2021 of Aizawl city, north-east India by multi-temporal changes and CA-ANN model","authors":"Imanuel Lawmchullova, Jonathan Lalrinawma, Lal Rinkimi, Joseph Lalngaihawma, Ch. Udaya Bhaskara Rao, Brototi Biswas","doi":"10.1007/s12665-025-12244-x","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12665-025-12244-x","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Monitoring urban landuse and landcover (LULC) change is a crucial element in developing cities like Aizawl to improve land use planning for future smart cities. The objective of the current study is to analyze the lulc changes of Aizawl city between 1991 and 2021 using multi-date Landsat images and a cellular automata-artificial neural network (CA-ANN) model to predict future scenarios. The present study is highly essential for examining the urban expansion in a vertical hill city and the historical influence of settlement patterns along the edges of hill ranges for proper land use planning. The automatic classification of support vector machines (SVM) in-built at Orfeo tool box (OTB) modules was employed for LULC pattern classification. The land cover change method of the semi-automatic classification plugin (SCP) was used to identify the past LULC using Landsat 4, 5, 7, and 8. The future LULC was stimulated using the machine-learning approaches modules for land use change evaluation (Molusce) plugin in QGIS 2.18. Also, we highlight the factors that influence future LULC changes and the impacts of unplanned hill cities from the results of multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) and analytical hierarchical process (AHP). The study reveals that built-up areas are continuously increasing while open forest, agricultural land, and fallow land are diminishing, even in the projected land use land cover thematic layer in 2031. The built-up area has seen the highest change, from 5.98 to 25.8% in 1991 to 2021; the rate of increase has been 0.636 km<sup>2</sup>/year-1 during the last 30 years. Similarly, dense forest cover also increased from 12.14 to 18.72% from 1991 to 2021, while other landuse landcover patterns like open forest, fallow land, and agricultural land are declining due to urban expansion. The accuracy level of Kappa coefficients was 97.30% in 1991 and 100% in the years 2001, 2011, and 2021, respectively.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":542,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Earth Sciences","volume":"84 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143871283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Quantitative attribution analysis of water and sediment changes in the Lower Yellow River (1950–2022) under the influence of climate change and human activities","authors":"Yihao Wen, Haijue Xu, Jinliang Zhang, Yuchuan Bai","doi":"10.1007/s12665-025-12227-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12665-025-12227-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Hydrological processes in regional river basins are significantly affected by both global climate change and human activities. This research focuses on analyzing changes in water and sediment dynamics in the lower Yellow River (LYR) while pinpointing the primary factors driving these transformations. The study aims to evaluate the respective contributions of climate change and human interventions to water–sediment interactions, providing insights for optimal water resource and watershed management. Methods such as the Mann–Kendall test and double cumulative curves were employed to explore long-term trends and sudden changes in runoff and sediment transport. The IHA-RVA method was used to conduct a detailed quantitative assessment of water–sediment variability, while Copula functions were employed to model the probability of simultaneous abundance or scarcity of water and sediment. To conduct the attribution analysis, we employed the Budyko framework along with fractal theory to quantify the respective contributions of climate change and human activities to water–sediment variations from 1950 to 2022. The results indicate substantial reductions in annual runoff and sediment transport within the LYR during this time, with overall decreases of 53.03% in runoff and 62.81% in sediment transport. The frequency of synchronous water–sediment events ranged from 56.54% to 67.29%, while asynchronous occurrences varied from 32.71% to 43.46%. Quantitative analysis revealed that human activities accounted for 74.11%–77.02% of the observed changes in runoff and a striking 91.48%–93.63% of sediment transport reductions in the lower Yellow River. These changes were predominantly driven by large-scale initiatives such as the Green for Grain program and the construction of major hydraulic infrastructure, emphasizing the dominant role of anthropogenic interventions over climatic factors in influencing hydrological dynamics. These findings provide important theoretical insights and practical guidance for enhancing soil and water conservation measures and improving regional management strategies in the LYR.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":542,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Earth Sciences","volume":"84 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143871285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comprehensive analysis of hourly extreme precipitation events and timing in Indian urban centres","authors":"Maharnab Kundu, Ujjwal Saha","doi":"10.1007/s12665-025-12273-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12665-025-12273-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study presents a comprehensive analysis of extreme hourly precipitation events in Indian urban centres using high-resolution rainfall data spanning 1969–2021. Extreme events were identified using a 99th percentile threshold for each of the 68 urban stations, and GIS tools were employed for geospatial analysis and visualization of spatiotemporal patterns. The findings reveal distinct regional patterns, with higher occurrences of extreme rainfall in the North East and West Coast regions, while certain areas in Central North East and South Peninsular India exhibit exceptions. Seasonal analysis underscores the dominance of extreme events during the summer monsoon, and diurnal patterns indicate that 59% of such events occur from afternoon to late evening. Quantitative results show a significant increase in the frequency of extreme hourly events in over 14% of stations, while 30% of stations experienced a decline. These insights are crucial for understanding the timing, intensity, and trends of extreme rainfall, offering valuable guidance for urban flood management, disaster preparedness, and the development of climate-resilient infrastructure.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":542,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Earth Sciences","volume":"84 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143871284","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Failure parameter inversion of the Baige landslides based on seismic signal analysis","authors":"Gang Fan, Ziyu Lin, Jiawen Zhou","doi":"10.1007/s12665-025-12250-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12665-025-12250-z","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Southwest China is prone to landslide disasters due to the complex geographical condition. The failure parameters of two Baige landslides in 2018 were inversed based on seismic signals recorded at adjacent seismograph stations. The global crustal one-dimensional average velocity model provided by Crust 1.0 was adopted to calculate Green’s function. Then, the force‒time functions of the two Baige landslides were inversed. Based on the landslide motion model, the kinetic motion parameters of the two Baige landslides were calculated, and the disaster processes of the two Baige landslides were ultimately revealed in this study. The results showed that the duration of the first Baige landslide was approximately 130 s, including three stages, i.e., the collapse and slide stage of the main sliding mass (last 44 s), the crushing and disintegration stage (last 47 s), and the scattering and accumulation stage (last 39 s). The duration of the second Baige landslide was approximately 130 s, including the collapse and slide stage (last 32 s), the crushing and disintegration stage (last 46 s) and the scattering and accumulation stage (last 58 s). The maximum force is 1.65 × 10<sup>11</sup> N in for the first Baige landslide and 1.69 × 10<sup>11</sup> N for the second Baige landslide, respectively. The maximum velocity of the centroid reached 65.3 m/s at t = 44 s for the first Baige landslide, while the maximum velocity of the centroid reached 64.9 m/s at t = 32 s for the second Baige landslide, which are larger than the existing simulation results. The calculated displacement matches the actual terrain based on the historical satellite images after the two Baige landslides. The trajectory angles of the centroids of the two landslides ranged from 4°~34° and 1°~51°, respectively, and the sliding friction coefficient ranged from 0.03 ~ 0.95 and 0.05 ~ 1.24, respectively. This study provides an indirect method for measuring landslide parameters, and a seismological basis and references for studying the failure mechanism of large-scale landslides.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":542,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Earth Sciences","volume":"84 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143865579","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Andrea Soledad Brendel, Federico Ferrelli, María Cintia Piccolo
{"title":"Climate change scenarios and the increasing severity of thermal extremes in the pampas region","authors":"Andrea Soledad Brendel, Federico Ferrelli, María Cintia Piccolo","doi":"10.1007/s12665-025-12264-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12665-025-12264-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This research aimed to analyze the Spatial and Temporal trends and variations of extreme thermal events in the Pampas region (Argentina) over three periods: the present (2009–2023), the near future (2024–2038), and the Far future (2085–2099) under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8. Across these periods, 14 extreme thermal indices were calculated using maximum and minimum temperature series recorded in situ by 48 meteorological stations. For future projections, we employed two validated climate models: the CCSM4 model (validation index: 0.91) for the humid region and the CNRM-CM5 model (validation index: 0.91) for the central region, selected based on their high performance in representing regional thermal conditions. Results revealed a significant warming trend, with regional maximum temperature increasing by 1.1 °C during 2009–2023, and projections of up to 1.4 °C increase in the Far future under RCP 8.5. A notable Spatial heterogeneity was observed, with Western and central sectors of the Pampas showing more pronounced warming patterns than Eastern coastal areas. Extreme indicators showed pronounced changes: absolute maximum temperature (TXx) increased by 2.5 °C in the present period, with projections of up to 4.9 °C increase by 2085–2099 under RCP 8.5. Warm days (TX90p) increased by 5 days/15 years in the present, with projections of 6.7 days/15 years in the Far future. Concurrently, cold events decreased significantly, with cool days (TX10p) declining by 6 days/15 years in the present and projected to decrease by 7.1 days/15 years in the Far future. This thermal intensification will adversely affect agricultural production, economic development, infrastructure, biodiversity, and public health, heightening the vulnerability of the region’s socio-ecosystems. These findings are critical for developing Spatial management plans and designing climate adaptation and mitigation measures at local and regional scales.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":542,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Earth Sciences","volume":"84 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143865510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}