Food and Energy Security最新文献

{"title":"Determinants of malt barley varietal adoption decisions of farmers: Evidence from the central highlands of Ethiopia","authors":"Mekonen Haile,&nbsp;Fetien Abay,&nbsp;Zewdie Bishaw,&nbsp;Berhane Lakew,&nbsp;Yemane Tsehaye","doi":"10.1002/fes3.560","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/fes3.560","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Barley is one of Ethiopia's most important cereal crops, ranking fifth in total cereal production, after maize, wheat, teff, and sorghum. Based on its intended use, it is divided into two types: food barley and malt barley. This study investigated the factors that affect farmers' decisions to adopt malt barley technology. The research was conducted in eight major malt barley-growing districts in the central highlands of Ethiopia. Data were collected from both primary and secondary sources. A structured questionnaire was used to obtain quantitative data from 400 sample farmers. Key informant interviews and focus group discussions were conducted to triangulate and substantiate the quantitative data. Secondary data were also used to supplement the primary data. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and econometric models. A logistic regression model was employed to analyze quantitative data. The findings revealed that educational level of the household head, family size of the household, access to input, experience, and access to demanded variety all have a positive and significant impact on malt barley technology adoption. However, the age of the household head, income from off-farm activities, and distance to the market have a negative and significant impact on farmers' decisions to use malt barley technology. Up to 2021, about 30 malt barley varieties were released or registered by the Ministry of Agriculture for production nationwide, while only six to seven varieties were adopted by the sampled farmer households. As a result, we concluded that strong government support and clear policy direction are required to encourage farmers and other stakeholders to invest more to enhance adoption of improved varieties across malt barley growing areas.</p>","PeriodicalId":54283,"journal":{"name":"Food and Energy Security","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/fes3.560","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141487793","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Crop species diversity: A key strategy for sustainable food system transformation and climate resilience","authors":"Emmanuel Junior Zuza,&nbsp;Kestrel Lambert,&nbsp;Tom Macmillan,&nbsp;Frangton Chiyemura,&nbsp;Yoseph Araya,&nbsp;Vicky Bowskill,&nbsp;Ayomide Oluseye,&nbsp;Mary Ng’endo Kanui,&nbsp;Gudrun Keding,&nbsp;Gillian Butler,&nbsp;Elinor Breman,&nbsp;Israel Oliver King,&nbsp;Limbikani Matumba,&nbsp;Jessica Heddenhausen,&nbsp;Stacia Nordin,&nbsp;Shonil Bhagwat","doi":"10.1002/fes3.558","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/fes3.558","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The global food system's reliance on a few species threatens food and nutritional security. Species diversification, including indigenous species, is a viable option to address this issue. Diversity enhances food systems' resilience against climatic and economic shocks. It offers resources for improved breeds and allows farmers to mitigate risks. However, successful diversification demands collaboration among farmers, researchers, academics, professionals, retailers, consumers, and policymakers. This review analyzes the role of crop species diversity in food system transformation, focusing on monoculture vulnerabilities, diversification benefits, indigenous species' role in nutrition and food security, and the importance of integrated policies and multi-stakeholder collaborations. We advocate for interdisciplinary research, participatory approaches, and supportive policies to foster diverse, resilient food systems that ensure food security, biodiversity conservation, and enhanced social well-being amidst global challenges. While acknowledging the importance of diversity in animal species for food security, the focus of this review is on crop species diversity and its potential to transform food systems.</p>","PeriodicalId":54283,"journal":{"name":"Food and Energy Security","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/fes3.558","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141424958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Glutathione-induced hydrogen sulfide enhances drought tolerance in sweet pepper (Capsicum annuum L.)","authors":"Cengiz Kaya,&nbsp;Ferhat Uğurlar","doi":"10.1002/fes3.559","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/fes3.559","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Glutathione (GSH) has been studied for its potential to enhance stress tolerance in plant systems, but the role of hydrogen sulfide (H₂S) in GSH-induced water stress tolerance in sweet pepper (<i>Capsicum annuum</i> L.) is still under investigation. This study explores how H₂S and GSH modulate water stress tolerance in pepper plants, addressing a research gap. The joint effect of sodium hydrosulfide (NaHS), a donor of H₂S, and GSH on water stress tolerance was determined through pre-treatment with the H₂S scavenger 0.1 mM hypotaurine (HT). Pepper seedlings were sprayed with 1.0 mM GSH or GSH + 0.2 mM NaHS once a week, with soil moisture content set at 80% and 40% for full irrigation and water stress conditions for a duration of 2 weeks. The results showed that water stress significantly reduced total plant dry weight, chlorophyll a and b content, <i>Fv/Fm</i>, leaf water potential, and relative water content by 50%, 56%, 33%, 27%, 52%, and 34%, while increasing hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂), proline, and H₂S levels by 152%, 134%, and77%, respectively. Treatment with GSH and NaHS reduced water stress-induced H₂O₂ production and improved plant growth, photosynthetic traits, proline, and the activity of L-cysteine desulfhydrase (L-DES), leading to the generation of H₂S content. GSH reduced NADPH oxidase (NOX), superoxide dismutase (SOD), and H₂O₂ but increased glutathione peroxidase (GPX) activities. The interaction of NaHS and GSH led to further reductions in NOX, SOD, and H₂O₂ values but increased GPX activity. The combined GSH and NaHS treatment increased nitric oxide (NO) production but decreased the activity of <i>S</i>-nitrosoglutathione reductase (GSNOR), potentially accelerating <i>S</i>-nitrosylation. Hypotaurine negated the positive impacts of GSH on water stress tolerance by reducing H₂S concentration in pepper plants, but this was corrected by the concurrent application of NaHS and GSH + HT. Therefore, water stress tolerance requires H₂S.</p>","PeriodicalId":54283,"journal":{"name":"Food and Energy Security","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/fes3.559","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141326752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Responses of soil microbiome to nitrogen input on eroded slope farmland in Southwest China","authors":"Guiru Zhao,&nbsp;Tongxin An,&nbsp;Zhiwei Fan,&nbsp;Kaixian Wu,&nbsp;Kai Lv,&nbsp;Feng Zhou,&nbsp;Bozhi Wu,&nbsp;Michael A. Fullen","doi":"10.1002/fes3.557","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/fes3.557","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Maintaining soil productivity and sustainability remains a challenge in the face of a changing global agricultural framework, which includes the primary threat of soil degradation in many regions. Although soil erosion contributes to land degradation, how reductions in fertiliser nitrogen (N) affect erosion and soil microbial communities in sloped farmland remains unclear. In this study, effects of reductions in fertiliser N from 300 kg ha⁻¹ (N1) to 225 kg ha⁻¹ (N2), 150 kg ha⁻¹ (N3), and 75 kg ha⁻¹ (N4) on runoff, sediment yield and microbial community structure were evaluated in 12 maize farmlands with a 10° slope in Southwest China. Soil chemical properties were analyzed, and bacterial 16S rRNA and fungal ITS1 were sequenced from extracted DNA. Runoff and sediment yield in maize were significantly lower in N1 and N2 than in N3 and N4 (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05). The microbial diversity was higher in N1 and N2 than in N3 and N4. The severe erosion associated with reductions in N input resulted in significant decreases in abundances of the bacterial phyla <i>Proteobacteria</i>, <i>Bacteroidetes</i>, <i>Chloroflexi</i>, <i>Gemmatimonadetes</i>, <i>Firmicutes</i>, and <i>Nitrospirae</i> and fungal phyla Basidiomycota, Mortierellomycota, and Olpidiomycota. By contrast, abundances of the phyla <i>Acidobacteria</i> (bacteria) and Ascomycota and Glomeromycota (fungi) increased significantly with severe erosion. Distance-based redundancy analysis indicated that cation exchange capacity, organic matter, and nitrate strongly influenced structure of bacterial and fungal communities. Reductions &gt;25% in N fertiliser (N3 and N4) did not meet crop N requirements, and because of the reduction in surface coverage, soil erosion was exacerbated, and soil fertility and diversity and complexity of microbial communities decreased. The results elucidated effects of N input on soil erosion and soil microbiomes in a sloped agroecosystem with the aim to rehabilitate or restore degraded land and increase sustainable agriculture development.</p>","PeriodicalId":54283,"journal":{"name":"Food and Energy Security","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/fes3.557","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141329374","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Wheat root exudates suppress faba bean Fusarium wilt disease","authors":"Siyin Yang,&nbsp;Yiran Zheng,&nbsp;Zixuan Cen,&nbsp;Yuting Guo,&nbsp;Zhixian Yang,&nbsp;Yan Dong","doi":"10.1002/fes3.550","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/fes3.550","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Continuous cultivation of faba beans often results in a high occurrence of <i>Fusarium</i> wilt. Nevertheless, this issue can be successfully managed through wheat-faba bean intercropping. Our objective is to elucidate the function of non-host wheat in combating faba bean <i>Fusarium</i> wilt. We assessed the impact of wheat on the development of faba bean <i>Fusarium</i> wilt through field and pot experiments, and examined and identified the compounds in the root exudates of wheat. The influence of wheat root exudates on <i>Fusarium commun</i> mycelial growth and spore multiplication was investigated through indoor culture experiments. Wheat-faba bean intercropping significantly reduced the occurrence of <i>Fusarium</i> wilt in field trials. Root separation experiments in pots indicated that wheat root exudates might play a vital role in this outcome. The exogenous addition of wheat root exudates to faba bean grown alone notably decreased the occurrence and severity of <i>Fusarium</i> wilt. Furthermore, the exogenous addition of wheat root exudates effectively hindered the growth and reproduction of <i>Fusarium commun</i>'s mycelium. And, wheat root exudates contained six compounds with relatively high concentrations, including salicylic acid, p-hydroxybenzoic acid, tartaric acid, malic acid, glutamic acid, and threonine, all of which inhibited the growth and spore formation of <i>Fusarium commun</i>. In a wheat-faba bean intercropping system, these six compounds found in the root exudate of non-host wheat can help control <i>Fusarium</i> wilt in faba bean by inhibiting the mycelial growth and sporulation of <i>Fusarium commun</i>.</p>","PeriodicalId":54283,"journal":{"name":"Food and Energy Security","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/fes3.550","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141251403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring the instability in the food security due to nitrogen fertilizer regulatory policy","authors":"Mohammad Tirgariseraji,&nbsp;A. Pouyan Nejadhashemi,&nbsp;Yaghoob Jafari,&nbsp;Tomas Persson,&nbsp;Mahmood Sabouhi Sabouni,&nbsp;Alisher Mirzabaev,&nbsp;Alireza Nikouei,&nbsp;Naser Shahnoushi Froshani","doi":"10.1002/fes3.549","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/fes3.549","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The nitrogen regulatory policy (NRP) solution is introduced as a mitigation measure against environmental nitrogen losses and keeps food production in the Safe Operating Space of the Nitrogen Planetary Boundary. Meanwhile, scientific research shows that steps taken to reduce environmental harm can increase the unpredictability of calorie production from crops. This study sought to investigate the impact of NRP solutions on the level of risk of accessibility to calorie sources from domestic production, the variations in calorie sources by livestock and non-livestock diet components, and the responses of different dietary preferences, namely, poor, medium, and rich livestock protein diets, against NRP solutions in the Zayandeh-Rud River basin, Iran. We developed the aggregate household food security index (AHFSI) and combined it with outputs of crop simulation model to examine how changes in dietary energy supplies under three NRP scenarios—low, moderate, and high nitrogen fertilizer application—affect the stability of three regional dietary preferences. The comparison of NRP scenarios movements realized that increases (or decreases) in nitrogen fertilizer rates contradicted the stability in AHFSI. Additionally, a one-unit change in the average calories from non-livestock sources, such as wheat and potatoes, results in greater fluctuations in the standard deviations of produced calories compared to changes in meat and dairy production. We proposed that in order to prevent adverse effects of NRP solutions on food security, mitigation strategies addressing the NRP solution should be structured based on (i) regional heterogeneities, (ii) type of crops, that is, food and feed crops, (iii) the range of nitrogen rates movement; (iv) and the socioeconomic background related to dietary preferences or economic deciles of food expenditure.</p>","PeriodicalId":54283,"journal":{"name":"Food and Energy Security","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/fes3.549","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141085003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Economic feasibility of using agrivoltaics for tomato farming","authors":"Kago Rabasoma,&nbsp;Nicholas Jenkins,&nbsp;Janaka Ekanayake","doi":"10.1002/fes3.548","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/fes3.548","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Agrivoltaics or agrophotovoltaics (APV), which simply describes farming under a canopy of PV panels, has been recently gaining a wider implementation to improve farming yields as well as generate electricity on the same piece of land. The presented study undertakes an economic analysis to justify the implementation of agrivoltaics in a tomato farm. Three research cases are investigated; Case 1 is the control scenario which is just ordinary tomato farming that is used as a baseline. And then there are Cases 2 and 3, which are low-density and high-density agrivoltaics, respectively. The farm is irrigated from a borehole using a diesel generator in Case 1 and solar pumps in the Agrivoltaics Cases 2 and 3. The study found that tomato harvest is reduced by a minimum of 16% in agrivoltaics setup. However, this reduced harvest is compensated by the PV output. The payback period has been calculated considering the capital costs of the PV system and other operational costs within the farm, and it is found that Case 2 and Case 3 have 3 years and 3.6 years payback periods, respectively. While on the other hand, ordinary tomato farming is unattractive with a lengthy payback period of 17.5 years. Net present value analysis is also used to determine the profitability of the three scenarios over a 10-year period, and the agrivoltaics scenarios are calculated to be profitable while ordinary tomato farming is not profitable. Therefore, this study justifies economic investment in agrivoltaics for tomato farming in Botswana.</p>","PeriodicalId":54283,"journal":{"name":"Food and Energy Security","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/fes3.548","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141069111","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring management strategies to improve yields and reduce reactive nitrogen emissions in a summer maize-winter wheat cropping system under long-term climate variability","authors":"Shaohui Huang,&nbsp;Junfang Yang,&nbsp;Suli Xing,&nbsp;Wenfang Yang,&nbsp;Yunma Yang,&nbsp;Liangliang Jia,&nbsp;Ping He","doi":"10.1002/fes3.546","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/fes3.546","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Achieving high stable crop yields and minimal environmental damage is crucial to enhance the sustainability of agriculture in China. Process-based models are indispensable tools to develop agronomy management practices to achieve sustainable agriculture by simulating crop production and emissions of reactive nitrogen (N), particularly in complex climate scenarios. In this study, a long-term field experiment with an intensive summer maize-winter wheat rotation system in north-central China was simulated using the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model. The DNDC model validation and calibration was done by using two-year monitoring data of crop yields and nitrous oxide emission fluxes and ammonia volatilization. Moreover, the optimal management practices to promote crop production and reduce the reactive N loss under 22 years of climate variability were explored using the calibrated DNDC model in this region. The results showed that the DNDC model effectively simulated wheat and maize yields, N uptake, ammonia volatilization, and nitrous oxide emissions. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the agronomic management practices (N rates and ratio of base to topdressing, planting time, and tillage depth) substantially affected crop yields and reactive N losses under long-term climate variability. Compared with current farming practices, optimal Nutrient Expert (NE) management achieved an increase in high yields and environmental pollution radiation by altering the rate of N application and ratio of base to topdressing. Moreover, the optimal management strategies developed by the DNDC model, such as adjusting the planting date and tillage depth, further increased the average grain yield by 2.9% and reduced the average reactive N losses by 10.5% compared with the NE management implemented in the annual rotation cropping with a 22-year simulation. This study suggests that the modeling method facilitates the development of most effective agronomic management practices to promote crop production and alleviate the negative impact on environment.</p>","PeriodicalId":54283,"journal":{"name":"Food and Energy Security","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/fes3.546","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140949107","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trends and gaps in sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas L.) improvement in sub-Saharan Africa: Drought tolerance breeding strategies","authors":"F. N. Makhubu,&nbsp;S. M. Laurie,&nbsp;M. E. Rauwane,&nbsp;S. Figlan","doi":"10.1002/fes3.545","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/fes3.545","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The main challenge facing agricultural crop production in the current global climate change scenario is sustainability. Drought, as a yield-limiting factor, has become a major threat to international food security. Tolerance to drought is a complex trait and its response is carried out by various genes, transcription factors, microRNAs, hormones, proteins, cofactors, ions and metabolites. The complexity of the trait has limited the development of drought-tolerant sweet potato cultivars by traditional breeding. Advances in sweet potato breeding to exploit the full potential of the crop to contribute to improved and higher performing sweet potato cultivars, adapted to increasingly risky rainfed conditions, mainly drought, are key to making food production systems more efficient and more tolerant to pressure from drought and other stressors. Genetic gain for yield potential in sweet potato has improved mostly in African countries, mainly as a result of an accelerated breeding scheme. The focus on maximising the utilisation of molecular tools for sweet potato improvement and yield has been recently explored in breeding programmes in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This article provides an update on the trends and gaps in sweet potato breeding in SSA, reviewing the relevant strategies used to improve sweet potato in the region. Finally, the perspectives of using new advanced tools including genetic engineering and genome editing, and the challenges associated with climate change for further improvement of the crop are highlighted. Collaborative efforts in African countries are driving advances in breeding methods through the incorporation of molecular tools to develop drought-tolerant sweet potato varieties that are important to global food security despite challenges posed by the drastic change in climate.</p>","PeriodicalId":54283,"journal":{"name":"Food and Energy Security","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/fes3.545","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140949108","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Harnessing enviromics to predict climate-impacted high-profile traits to assist informed decisions in agriculture","authors":"Bosen Zhang,&nbsp;Amber L. Hauvermale,&nbsp;Zhiwu Zhang,&nbsp;Alison Thompson,&nbsp;Clark Neely,&nbsp;Aaron Esser,&nbsp;Michael Pumphrey,&nbsp;Kimberly Garland-Campbell,&nbsp;Jianming Yu,&nbsp;Camille Steber,&nbsp;Xianran Li","doi":"10.1002/fes3.544","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/fes3.544","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Modern agriculture is a complex system that demands real-time and large-scale quantification of trait values for evidence-based decisions. However, high-profile traits determining market values often lack high-throughput phenotyping technologies to achieve this objective; therefore, risks of undermining crop values through arbitrary decisions are high. Because environmental conditions are major contributors to performance fluctuation, with the contemporary informatics infrastructures, we proposed enviromic prediction as a potential strategy to assess traits for informed decisions. We demonstrated this concept with wheat falling number (FN), a critical end-use quality trait that significantly impacts wheat market values but is measured using a low-throughput technology. Using 8 years of FN records from elite variety testing trials, we developed a predictive model capturing the general trend of FN based on biologically meaningful environmental conditions. An explicit environmental index that was highly correlated (<i>r</i> = 0.646) with the FN trend observed from variety testing trials was identified. An independent validation experiment verified the biological relevance of this index. An enviromic prediction model based on this index achieved accurate and on-target predictions for the FN trend in new growing seasons. Two applications designed for production fields illustrated how such enviromic prediction models could assist informed decision along the food supply chain. We envision that enviromic prediction would have a vital role in sustaining food security amidst rapidly changing climate. As conducting variety testing trials is a standard component in modern agricultural industry, the strategy of leveraging historical trial data is widely applicable for other high-profile traits in various crops.</p>","PeriodicalId":54283,"journal":{"name":"Food and Energy Security","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/fes3.544","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140914748","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}