Climate Variability and Agricultural Inputs: Effects on Grain Production and Yield Stability in China (1991–2020)

Abstract

Stability serves as one of the key dimensions of food security and agricultural production systems, particularly in the context of climate change and increasing climate variabilities. To investigate how agricultural inputs, climate fluctuations, and their interactions affect the temporal stability of grain production, this study compiled multisource provincial-level data in China from 1991 to 2020 at 5-year intervals and calculated time-detrended stability indices for both grain production and yield. The results indicated that precipitation fluctuation during the crop-growing seasons and natural disasters significantly reduced both grain production and yield stability, while the effect of temperature fluctuation was less substantial. The negative impacts of nitrogen fertilizer application on grain stability highlighted the importance of considering and addressing ecological degradation; furthermore, interaction terms reveal that it underscores the vulnerability of grain production and yield stability to climate variability, particularly to precipitation fluctuation. By contrast, irrigation benefits grain stability by satisfying water demands and demonstrates a mitigating effect on risks from precipitation fluctuations. In addition, higher farmers' incomes strengthen their incentives for agricultural engagements, underscoring the critical role of agricultural subsidies and policy support. These findings provide scientific support for targeted management of agricultural inputs in response to climate fluctuations and for ensuring food security through a sustainable agriculture approach.