Progress in Disaster Science最新文献

{"title":"Game theory applications in managing stakeholder conflicts for building safety and resilience against natural disasters","authors":"Amir Shahmohammadian ,&nbsp;Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100409","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100409","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The safety and resilience of buildings and housing against natural disasters, as a key urban element, are vital for sustainable development. Ensuring the safety and resilience of buildings and communities in the face of disasters is a complex and multidimensional phenomenon. This challenge not only encompasses various economic, social, engineering, and legal dimensions but also requires the collaboration of diverse stakeholders with differing interests and objectives. However, conflicts between relevant players and stakeholders can hinder progress and jeopardize the goal of building safety and resilience, ultimately threatening the sustainability of communities. The management of housing safety and resilience systems requires a deep understanding of stakeholder behavior and conflicts among them. Even when stakeholders seek mutual benefits, their actions can sometimes lead to suboptimal outcomes for all involved parties. Game theory provides an analytical framework for examining and interpreting the actions of stakeholders related to the safety and resilience of buildings and housing. It highlights how interactions among different parties, who may prioritize personal goals over broader system objectives, can influence the system's evolution and outcomes. The outcomes obtained through game theory often contrast with those proposed by optimization approaches, which typically assume that all parties are fully aligned in their commitment to achieving the best possible outcome for the system as a whole. The present study examines the application of game theory to analyze the behavior of key actors involved in the urban housing construction process, identify existing conflicts, and explore their impact on the resilience and safety of buildings in developing countries facing natural disasters. By analyzing the dynamic and complex structure of safety and resilience challenges, the study underscores the importance of considering stakeholder attitudes and the game's evolutionary trajectory in addressing these issues. Furthermore, it introduces a game between engineers and investors to demonstrate how the personal goals of involved parties can foster opportunistic behaviors that compromise the safety and resilience of buildings. Ultimately, the study argues that game theory can serve as an effective tool for understanding stakeholder behavior, addressing conflicts, and enhancing collaboration among stakeholders. This approach offers valuable insights for policymakers aiming to achieve safer and more resilient urban systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100409"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143510980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A food resilience model integrating local wisdom and sociotechnical dynamic systems: Case study flood-affected communities in the Bengawan solo area","authors":"Issa Dyah Utami ,&nbsp;Nachnul Anshori ,&nbsp;Haryani Saptaningtyas ,&nbsp;Septin Puji Astuti","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100413","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100413","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study aimed to identify local potential and design a food resilience model based on local wisdom regarding floods. Floods can degrade the quality of food products. Indonesian people are known to have local wisdom on maintaining food resilience to mitigate natural disasters. This study proposes improving community preparedness for disaster threats and strengthening their capacity to respond effectively by integrating local wisdom, thereby improving food resilience and achieving disaster mitigation. To support research exploring how local wisdom can be effectively integrated into food resilience in communities affected by natural disasters, especially floods, effective strategies and methods are required to combine local wisdom with scientific and technological approaches. The sociotechnical system method and dynamic system approach were used to develop a model that can provide information to the community and government, thereby optimizing the function of local wisdom in food resilience. This study shows that local wisdom is important for flood mitigation and food resilience in communities affected by flood disasters. Based on the simulation results, the best scenario was obtained for the three regions. Governments can use these proposals to formulate policy priorities for implementation in each region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100413"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143488964","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reimagining urban resilience and education hubs using a community-engaged, equity-centered approach","authors":"Kelly A. Stevens ,&nbsp;L. Trenton S. Marsh ,&nbsp;Chelcee A. Pangerl ,&nbsp;Alexandra Silio ,&nbsp;Zhihua Qu ,&nbsp;Yue Ge ,&nbsp;Liqiang Wang ,&nbsp;Sanam K. Aksha ,&nbsp;Herbert E. Longenecker ,&nbsp;Christopher T. Emrich ,&nbsp;Mohammad Newaz Sharif ,&nbsp;Sallyrose Savage","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100414","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100414","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Resilience hubs provide temporary electricity-related services, connectivity, and essential resources in response to climate-related disasters, offering a critical solution for enhancing community resilience. Historically marginalized and lower-income populations face heightened vulnerability to external shocks that threaten their ability to recover from disasters. This article presents a case study of a co-designed resilience and education hub in the City of Orlando, developed through a community-engaged and equity-centered approach. Over six months, a team of interdisciplinary researchers collaborated with 20 community members, and surveyed over 300 local residents, and workshopped ideas with Orlando youth to identify values critical to the hub's design. These values encompassed physical infrastructure, social connectivity, and educational resources tailored to the community's unique needs. Key outcomes include the design of a portable Resilience, Education, and Advocacy Center for Hazard preparedness (REACH hub) featuring modular technology and interactive educational tools. This article proposes a replicable framework for other communities to co-develop equity-focused resilience hubs through academic, civic, and community partnerships.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100414"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143548643","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A combined fleet size and mix vehicle routing model for last-mile distribution in disaster relief","authors":"Katharina Eberhardt ,&nbsp;Florian Diehlmann ,&nbsp;Markus Lüttenberg ,&nbsp;Florian Klaus Kaiser ,&nbsp;Frank Schultmann","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100411","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100411","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Disasters pose a significant challenge for last-mile operations, straining emergency logistics systems' ability to provide efficient aid and support. In this context, a Fleet Size and Mix Vehicle Routing Problem for Disaster Management (FSMVRP-DM) is formulated, incorporating a fleet composition decision tailored to the specifics of disaster relief logistics. The model aims to optimize routing and analyze fleet decisions to minimize the sum of operating costs and population deprivation costs. Moreover, a prioritization approach is introduced to monitor deprivation time during transport resource scarcity, adjusting routes periodically to prevent extended supply gaps and minimize suffering costs. In addition, a case study is conducted in the German state of Baden-Württemberg to illustrate the potential applicability of the model. The findings highlight the advantages of integrating diverse and innovative fleet types, such as drones, and prioritizing the supply of multiple demand points when resources are scarce. Overall, the research offers decision support for authorities by enhancing information transparency, facilitating resource management, strengthening the effectiveness of disaster response capabilities, and providing resilient and adaptive strategies for last-mile distribution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100411"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143488963","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Empowering flood preparedness: Enhancing flood knowledge, risk perception, and preparedness among primary school learners in flood-affected southern Thailand","authors":"Mujalin Intaramuean ,&nbsp;Atsuko Nonomura ,&nbsp;Tum Boonrod","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100410","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100410","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The increasing frequency and severity of floods owing to climate change particularly affect children, making enhanced preparedness strategies essential for mitigating their impact. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of local topography maps on flood knowledge, flood risk perception (FRP), and flood preparedness (FP) among elementary school students aged 11–12 in Nakhon Si Thammarat Province, Thailand. A quasi-experimental design was employed, with 150 students divided into an experimental group (n = 75) and a control group (n = 75). The intervention comprised a flood education programme incorporating discussions, workshops, slide presentations, and interactive teaching methods to enhance students' knowledge, FRP, and FP. Data were collected via questionnaires at three-time points: pre-test (T₀), pos<em>t</em>-test (T₁), and follow-up (T₂) between August and October 2023. Statistical analyses included <em>t</em>-tests, Wilcoxon rank-sum tests, ANOVA, and the Friedman test. The results indicated that the flood education programme significantly improved students' preparedness, though no significant differences in flood risk perception were observed between groups. The intervention highlighted the need to enhance students' understanding of local topography and flood hazard mapping. This study suggests integrating localized flood information into preparedness programs to improve knowledge, risk perception, and preparedness in classroom disaster education.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100410"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143463732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multi-hazard probability assessment in Quinali A Watershed, Albay, Philippines","authors":"Jerico E. Mendoza ,&nbsp;Gifford Jay L. Agudo ,&nbsp;Alfredo Mahar Francisco A. Lagmay ,&nbsp;Juan M. Pulhin ,&nbsp;Rex Victor O. Cruz ,&nbsp;Joy T. Santiago ,&nbsp;Marc Anthony M. Moises ,&nbsp;Canesio D. Predo ,&nbsp;Maricel T. Villamayor ,&nbsp;Marlo D. Mendoza ,&nbsp;Rose Jane J. Peras ,&nbsp;Lorena L. Sabino ,&nbsp;Liezl B. Grefalda ,&nbsp;Asa Jose U. Sajise ,&nbsp;Florencia B. Pulhin ,&nbsp;Josephine E. Garcia ,&nbsp;Catherine S. Anders ,&nbsp;Kyle Vincent R. Singson","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100408","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100408","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Quinali A Watershed, Philippines experiences the compounded effects of interconnected multi-hazard events and there remain significant gaps in understanding the spatial variability of these multi-hazard occurrences within the watershed. To better understand their potential impacts on communities within the watershed, we examine the spatial distribution of multi-hazard events, focusing on four hazards: flood, rain-induced landslide, liquefaction, and pyroclastic flow hazards. Individual hazard maps were created utilizing various numerical modeling techniques, and linear aggregation was employed through an analytic hierarchy process to develop a comprehensive multi-hazard map. Our results show that approximately 60 % of the watershed can be affected by multi-hazard events with high multi-hazard levels widespread along areas of low topographic relief in the watershed floodplains and the foot slopes of the southwestern section of Mayon Volcano. The analysis further confirmed that high levels of multi-hazard risk are found in locations where the individual hazard levels are already significant and where multiple hazard layers overlap. Presently, initiatives aimed to integrate climate and disaster risk assessments into local planning predominantly concentrate on the effects of single hazards. This study illustrates the necessity of a fundamental comprehension of the compounding effects of various hazards and their integration into disaster risk assessments to improve disaster management strategies. This approach is consistent with the UNDRR's recommendations to enhance the implementation of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (MHEWS) across all sectors, thereby safeguarding the most exposed populations from natural hazards.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100408"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143527322","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Flood mapping, damage assessment, and susceptibility zonation in northeastern Bangladesh in 2022 using geospatial datasets","authors":"Md. Mizanur Rahman ,&nbsp;Mohammad Kamruzzaman ,&nbsp;Limon Deb ,&nbsp;H.M. Touhidul Islam","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100402","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100402","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study assesses flood inundation, impacts, and susceptibility zones in northeastern Bangladesh during the 2022 flood. The region is highly vulnerable to recurrent flooding Due to its geographic position and climate change impacts. The Sentinel-1 SAR data on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform was used to generate flooded areas using a simple change detection technique with thresholding. This analysis was further supported by incorporating cropland, population, national highway, and DEM datasets for a comprehensive damage assessment. Findings show that 55.76 % (10,993.09 km²) of the area was inundated, impacting 10.69 million people and causing severe displacement and health hazards. Sylhet, Kishoreganj, and Brahmanbaria districts were the most affected, with 2.73 million impacted in Sylhet alone. Additionally, 67.87 % of agricultural land was flooded, particularly in Sunamganj, and 43.38 % of national highways (535.08 km²) were damaged. A flood susceptibility zonation map identified high-susceptibility areas like central Sunamganj and parts of Kishoreganj to assist authorities in resource allocation and mitigation. The flood extent model achieved strong predictive accuracy (AUC: 0.97 % RF, 0.96 % LR, and 0.94 % DT), providing crucial insights for regional flood management and guiding communities with limited modeling capacities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"25 ","pages":"Article 100402"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143153116","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Women's knowledge and perception of flood disasters in Butaleja District, Uganda","authors":"Alice Nakiyemba,&nbsp;Kinobe Zakaria,&nbsp;Kakungulu Mosses,&nbsp;Nyangoma Immeldah,&nbsp;Masaba Sowedi","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100399","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100399","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Globally, flood disasters have increased, adversely affecting women. The study assessed women's knowledge and perception of flood disasters in Butaleja district, Eastern Uganda, regarding the occurrence, severity, causes, and timely access to flood information among women flood victims. Evaluating women's knowledge and perception of flood disasters guides the design and implementation of risk-reduction initiatives and practices. We employed mixed methods, with primary data collected from 300 households, 16 focus group discussions, and 9 key informants. Data were analysed with R-software and Atlas ti 23. Results attributed the causes of flood disasters to heavy rainfall, poor farming methods, and encroachment on wetlands and riverbanks. Most women reported that floods were becoming more severe, and they lacked access to information sources regarding flood disasters. Women's awareness of flood disasters is significantly associated with the respondents' level of education and the primary source of livelihood. The study concludes that even when women flood victims were aware of flood disaster occurrence, severity, and causes, they exhibited inadequate knowledge, as they did not have access to information sources to alert them to flood disasters. The study recommends appropriate location of flood early warning systems and proper land use to enhance women's knowledge of flood disasters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"25 ","pages":"Article 100399"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143153111","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Machine learning for human mobility during disasters: A systematic literature review","authors":"Jonas Gunkel ,&nbsp;Max Mühlhäuser ,&nbsp;Andrea Tundis","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100405","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100405","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding and predicting human mobility during disasters is crucial for effective disaster management. Knowledge about population locations can greatly enhance rescue missions and evacuations. Realistic models that reflect observable mobility patterns and volumes are crucial for estimating population locations. However, existing models are limited in their applicability to disasters, as they are typically restricted to describing regular mobility patterns. Machine learning models trained to capture patterns observable in provided training data also face this limitation. The necessity of large amounts of training data for machine learning models, coupled with the scarcity of data on mobility in disasters, often constrains the feasibility of their training. Various strategies have been developed to overcome this issue, which we present and discuss in this systematic literature review. Our review aims to support and accelerate the synthesis of novel approaches by establishing a knowledge base for future research. This review identified a condensed field of related contributions exhibiting high methodology and context diversity. We classified and analyzed the relevant contributions based on their proposed approach and subsequently discussed and compared them qualitatively. Finally, we elaborated on general challenges and highlighted areas for future research.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"25 ","pages":"Article 100405"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143153142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multiple hazards and population change in Japan’s Suzu City after the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake","authors":"Shohei Nagata ,&nbsp;Erick Mas ,&nbsp;Yuriko Takeda ,&nbsp;Tomoki Nakaya ,&nbsp;Shunichi Koshimura","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100396","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100396","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The earthquake that struck Japan’s Noto Peninsula on January 1, 2024, caused extensive damage, leading to the first major tsunami warning since the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. It remains unclear where people moved immediately after the earthquake and how earthquake-induced multiple hazards affected human mobility, reflecting evacuation movement. This study examines the human mobility change in Suzu City, severely damaged by strong ground shaking and multiple hazards, including tsunamis and liquefaction, from January 1 to January 3, 2024, using population estimates based on cell phone networks. Specifically, we unravel the detailed spatiotemporal changes in population distribution in the affected areas, reflecting evacuation from the tsunami and other multiple hazard factors. Our results reveal that immediately after the earthquake, people concentrated in inland areas, suggesting that the major tsunami warning facilitated the evacuation from the coast to inland areas. Furthermore, the sense of strong ground shaking and tsunami inundation risk may have triggered tsunami evacuation. A clear drop in population was delayed by one to two days after the earthquake in areas with a high liquefaction potential and landslide occurrence. This study’s outcomes contribute to a better understanding of human mobility during disasters, thereby aiding future disaster-management decisions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"25 ","pages":"Article 100396"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143153109","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}