Progress in Disaster Science最新文献

{"title":"Disaster preparedness in Greece: Toward societal, organisational and technological resilience","authors":"Gintarė Zinkevičiūtė ,&nbsp;Michail Chalaris ,&nbsp;Sotiria Anastasiou ,&nbsp;Jana Hojnik","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100538","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100538","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines disaster preparedness in Greece in the context of escalating climate-related hazards, focusing on the interaction of societal, organisational, and technological factors. Using a mixed-methods approach – policy analysis, expert interviews, and case studies of major 2023 events - findings reveal systemic gaps in prevention funding, risk communication, and community engagement. Institutional frameworks have strengthened, notably through digital alert systems, yet remain reactive rather than preventive. Behavioural barriers, such as low self-efficacy and risk denial, limit public readiness, while volunteer networks remain under-recognised. Drawing on resilience theory and comparative research on societal and organisational transitions, the paper proposes a multi-level strategy combining institutional robustness, behavioural change interventions, and technological innovation. The analysis contributes to the broader discourse on adaptive and transformative resilience, offering transferable lessons for Mediterranean and other climate-vulnerable regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"29 ","pages":"Article 100538"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147395962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Identifying physical vulnerability drivers increasing in exposed structures to floods","authors":"Yelena Hernández-Atencia ,&nbsp;Juanchito Cutupey-Márquez ,&nbsp;Isabel Rojas ,&nbsp;Didier Lizcano ,&nbsp;Jader Muñoz-Ramos ,&nbsp;Luis E. Peña","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100512","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100512","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Diverse structures serve protective functions against floods, yet they remain constantly exposed to water currents, which increase their physical vulnerability. Thus, identifying key factors can be complex given the interrelationships and interactions among hydrological, hydraulic, geomorphological, and many other variables. This study analyzes 13 factors related to the physical vulnerability of structures exposed to flooding from experts' judgment judgment-based approach byCross-Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to Classification (MICMAC) and multivariate statistics using Principal Components Analysis PCA, and Categorical Principal Component Analysis CATPCA, to highlight the identification of key factors. Subsequently, Spearman's rank correlation coefficient was used to establish metric comparisons between methods. The study evaluated 22 structures along a 20 km stretch of the main channel of the Combeima River in Colombia, using hydrological and hydraulic modeling over a 54-year period (1971–2024), under land-use change scenarios. Results indicate that factors related to the type of cover and the infiltration were highly influential on the level of physical vulnerability. Therefore, the proposed methodology and results can provide elements of judgment for planners in formulating and implementing flood risk management practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"29 ","pages":"Article 100512"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145926168","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bridging warning and adaptation addressing risk communication strategies for short-term natural hazard warnings and long-term risk adaptation – A scoping review","authors":"Julia Graf ,&nbsp;Renate Renner ,&nbsp;Thomas Klebel","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100515","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100515","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Effective risk communication is a core element of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015–2030), emphasizing the importance of early warning and public information in mitigating disaster impacts. However, existing research often treats risk communication as a uniform process, lacking in systematic differentiation between short-term warnings and long-term adaptation strategies. This scoping review analyzes 194 peer-reviewed studies to examine how risk communication strategies vary across temporal dimensions (short-term, long-term, hybrid), hazard groups (atmospheric, geophysical, hydrological, biophysical, multiple hazards) and intended purpose. Communication goals are categorized through an inductively developed approach: “Act, Prepare, and Aware”, and mapped across four major hazard groups. Across hazard types, atmospheric hazards are predominantly addressed through hybrid (41 %) and short-term (25 %) strategies. Geophysical hazards are strongly associated with hybrid approaches (43 %). Hydrological hazards display the widest variation across temporal categories. Purely long-term formats, however, are rarely found across all hazard types (1.4 %), despite their strategic importance for resilience. Findings suggest that the choice of communication strategy can be tied to the nature and dynamics of each hazard type. This review identifies key patterns, research gaps, and a structured basis for further evaluation and the development of risk communication. It provides an overview of current literature and guidance for developing context-sensitive, temporally integrated communication strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"29 ","pages":"Article 100515"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145926174","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Subjectivity in the storm: Q methodological deconstruction of climate narratives among Bangladesh's drought-affected farming households","authors":"Hridoy Majumder,&nbsp;Bikash Chandra Ghosh","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100497","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100497","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Perception, given its pivotal role in the formulation of inclusive adaptation strategies to address climate change, has emerged as an area of mutual interest among international communities. Still, prior studies have predominantly excluded the heterogenous belief structures of stakeholders in suggesting relevant policy frameworks, especially in the Global South. However, this inquiry employed Q methodology to investigate the subjective views of 28 farmers from drought-affected districts in northwest Bangladesh on climate change, identifying three distinct viewpoints: factivists, traditionalists, and modulators. Factivists based their arguments on scientific evidence and acknowledged the necessity of effective adaptation strategies against climate change. Conversely, traditionalists rejected empirical adaptation strategies and scientific reasoning, viewing climate change as a divine act. Modulators prioritized experience-based adaptation techniques, regardless of some underlying causes of climate change. However, all three groups acknowledge extreme climate events are increasing in frequency and causing a sharp decline in crop productivity, notwithstanding their ideological differences. Findings of this investigation articulated the necessity of consolidating diverse beliefs of the farmers to form a feasible and potent set of policies and supported holistic adaptation strategies that resonate with—and are adopted by—the full spectrum of rural stakeholders.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"29 ","pages":"Article 100497"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145665411","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"When waters turn against communities: Unraveling water governance, security, and household well-being in hazard-prone coastal Bangladesh","authors":"Md. Nasif Ahsan ,&nbsp;Jannatul Naim ,&nbsp;Najmus Sakib ,&nbsp;Pankaj Kumar ,&nbsp;Naoyuki Okano ,&nbsp;Md. Sarwar Hossain ,&nbsp;Animesh K. Gain ,&nbsp;Md Nurul Amin ,&nbsp;Md Khairul Islam ,&nbsp;Miho Ohara ,&nbsp;Yasuo Takahashi ,&nbsp;Osamu Saito ,&nbsp;Koji Miwa","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100500","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100500","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Water insecurity, intensified by climate change, environmental degradation, and unsustainable resource management, poses a significant threat to human well-being in coastal regions. This study examines the interrelationships among water governance, household well-being, and water security in southwestern Bangladesh. Using a multistage sampling approach, data were collected from 411 households across nine unions in the Khulna and Satkhira districts, illustrating acute vulnerabilities stemming from ineffective water management, saline intrusion, and inadequate infrastructure. Statistical analyses, including correlation, z-test, chi-square test, and regression, were employed alongside Generalized Structural Equation Modeling (GSEM) to assess the dynamics of water governance and its linkage with water security and well-being. The results suggest that trust, transparency, accountability, and service delivery are key determinants of effective water governance. As hypothesized, effective water governance was positively associated with both household well-being and water security, and higher water security further contributed to improved well-being. The study recommends strengthening coastal water infrastructure through community participation across all project phases, ensuring affordability, integrating resilient solar-powered purification systems, and promoting water-dependent livelihoods. These strategies can reinforce trust, transparency, and service delivery while improving the accessibility, quality, and safety of water for coastal communities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"29 ","pages":"Article 100500"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145738449","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global challenges and insights in disaster risk management at world cultural heritage sites","authors":"Min Li ,&nbsp;Takeyuki Okubo ,&nbsp;Dowon Kim ,&nbsp;Shakya Lata ,&nbsp;Aya Miyazaki","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100477","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100477","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Cultural heritage has faced significant challenges due to both natural and human-induced hazards, as well as the impacts of climate change in recent years. To safeguard the outstanding universal value of World Cultural Heritage (WCH) sites, this study focuses on disaster risk management (DRM) across these WCH sites globally. A questionnaire was distributed to 972 WCH sites, with 57 responding. The survey gathered information on hazard-related characteristics, historical disasters, the current status of DRM plans and measures, and the traditional knowledge related to DRM. The study found that approximately 72 % of the surveyed heritage sites feature timber structures or masonry structures with wooden elements, making them vulnerable to fire. Additionally, 40 % of WCH sites are located in mountainous, coastal, or riverside areas, exposing them to multiple natural hazards. Many sites (79 %) have been repurposed for commercial use, and about 42 % of the surveyed sites attract a large number of tourists, which may further increase disaster risks. The study findings also highlight the diverse range of hazards affecting monuments and archaeological sites in Africa, Asia, and Europe, with Africa and Europe facing particularly significant challenges due to climate change. From past disasters, it is evident that floods, strong winds, fires, and earthquakes have become more frequent in recent years, causing substantial damage to heritage sites. Notably, climate change is a key factor behind disasters like floods, fires, droughts, and extreme wind events. In addition, human-induced disasters, such as armed conflicts and vandalism, have also caused serious destruction to WCH sites. However, only about half of the surveyed heritage sites have a DRM plan in place or are in the process of developing one. The study further reveals that the lack of financial and material resources, expertise, and awareness of the importance of a DRM plan are the key reasons for the absence of DRM plans. On the other hand, traditional knowledge identified at these WCH sites, including specialized drainage system designs, traditional fire-fighting methods, and climate-resilient architectural features, could be integrated as effective disaster risk reduction measures in future DRM plans.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"28 ","pages":"Article 100477"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145578747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of spatiotemporal effects of soil depth on shallow landslides and debris flows via coupled numerical analysis","authors":"Seungjun Lee ,&nbsp;Taeun Kang ,&nbsp;Minseok Kim ,&nbsp;Heemin Ko ,&nbsp;Hyunuk An","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100470","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100470","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Soil depth critically influences the timing and magnitude of shallow landslides and subsequent debris flows, yet its spatiotemporal effects remain insufficiently understood. This study investigates these effects through landslides–debris flows coupled numerical analysis, employing three soil depth configurations: the slope-based S model, the elevation-based Z model, and the U model, which assumes uniform soil depth across the study area. The 2011 Mt. Umyeon landslides in South Korea, a well-documented event with extensive field survey data, were simulated to validate the simulation results. Model performance was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic method. Results show that increasing soil depth enlarges the scale of landslides and debris flows while delaying their onset. However, when soil depth greatly exceeds rainfall intensity and cumulative rainfall, slope failure susceptibility decreases, emphasizing the spatiotemporal control of soil thickness. In debris flow simulations, soil depth strongly influenced erosion and entrainment processes, substantially affecting downstream residential damage estimates. Furthermore, our results indicate that when soil depth data are unavailable, the slope-based S model provides more spatiotemporally stable predictions of landslide and debris flow behavior. This study highlights the importance of soil depth in geohazard modeling and advances understanding of rainfall-induced landslide–debris flow hazards in ungauged mountainous regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"28 ","pages":"Article 100470"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145158219","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Earthquake loss estimation due to damage to residential masonry buildings during scenario earthquakes in Nepal","authors":"Sunita Ghimire,&nbsp;Hari Ram Parajuli,&nbsp;Prem Nath Maskey","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100463","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100463","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Historical records indicate that large-magnitude earthquakes have frequently impacted Nepal, leading to widespread destruction and significant loss of life. This study quantifies potential earthquake losses for residential masonry structures by analyzing damage data from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake across 31 affected districts. The residential buildings in the study area are categorized into seven typologies based on construction materials and the number of stories. Damage states were classified into five grades using the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-98). Based on these classifications, empirical fragility curves were developed. These curves, integrated with exposure, consequence, vulnerability, and fault rupture models, served as the foundation for a loss estimation analysis. We examined three distinct earthquake scenarios– two historical and one hypothetical - that are representative of seismic activity in central, eastern, and western Nepal. Although post-2015 Gorkha earthquake reconstruction efforts resulted in approximately 1,000,000 seismically compliant residential buildings, an estimated 814,690 pre-existing masonry buildings remain highly vulnerable due to their noncompliance with seismic provisions. This study provides municipality-level economic loss estimations, as well as damage distributions for residential masonry buildings, for three scenarios, marking the first time this has been done in the study area.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"28 ","pages":"Article 100463"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145026320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Landslide evaluation and the correlation with urban planning policy gaps, in south-central Chile","authors":"Luciana das Dores de Jesus da Silva ,&nbsp;Fabian Pacheco ,&nbsp;Octavio Rojas ,&nbsp;Mauricio Aguayo ,&nbsp;Maria Elisa Diaz Burgos ,&nbsp;Natalia Julio ,&nbsp;Ricardo Figueroa Jara","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100484","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100484","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rapid and unplanned urbanization through informal settlements has intensified environmental degradation and increased exposure to natural hazards, limiting sustainable urban growth. Chile, identified by the IPCC as highly vulnerable to climate change, faces growing landslide risks driven by both natural and anthropogenic factors. Since the enactment of the Disaster Risk Law (Law 21,364, 2021), Chile has begun decentralizing disaster management; however, preventive and planning-oriented approaches remain limited. This study examines the integration of disaster risk management into urban planning in southern Chile, focusing on how local planning instruments address landslide risk. A multicriteria spatial analysis was conducted to assess susceptibility, physical vulnerability, and risk, compared with zoning defined by Metropolitan and Communal Regulatory Plans (PRM/PRC). Additionally, nearly 50 planning instruments were reviewed. Results show that 70 % of recorded landslides occurred in areas of medium to high susceptibility. Lota presents the largest susceptible area, while Concepción shows the highest physical vulnerability and risk (25.08 km² of high-risk zones). In most municipalities, risk areas identified in this study exceed those officially recognized. The findings emphasize the need to systematically incorporate vulnerability into planning frameworks and strengthen land-use regulations to improve disaster risk governance in developing urban contexts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"28 ","pages":"Article 100484"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145623012","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effect of weather on crowd motion accidents","authors":"Dóra Edelmann ,&nbsp;Ágota Drégelyi-Kiss ,&nbsp;Tibor Goda","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100475","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100475","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background and objective</h3><div>Weather conditions are critical to safety at mass events, impacting pedestrian movement and emergency evacuation. This study analyzed fatal crowd accidents and their correlation with weather.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>Data from 161 fatal crowd crush accidents (CCA) at mass gatherings in 65 countries (2000–2024) were collected, including location, date, attendance, casualties, fatalities, weather conditions, and population density data. Apparent temperature (AT) and Humidex (HI) were calculated for the accident days and the preceding and following days. Descriptive analysis and multivariate linear regression model were conducted.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>The majority of fatal accidents (61 %, <em>n</em> = 98) occurred in countries with higher population densities. In 59.74 % of cases, the Humidex was above the high discomfort threshold (&gt;30 °C) on the day of the accident. We found a positive monotonic correlation between the number of fatalities, attendance, and air pressure characteristics in the period following and on the day of the accident.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>Due to the increased risk of accidents at mass gatherings, risk prevention services and governmental bodies must enact specialized, coordinated measures to mitigate such occurrences. A comprehensive analysis of atmospheric conditions is paramount in preventing accidents.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"28 ","pages":"Article 100475"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145415787","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}