Progress in Disaster Science最新文献

{"title":"Warning cultures in practice: Shadow systems in local flood risk governance","authors":"Jeff Da Costa ,&nbsp;Hannah L. Cloke ,&nbsp;Jessica Neumann ,&nbsp;Nathan Salvidge","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100513","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100513","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Early warning reduces flood risk when forecasts are interpreted and converted into timely local action. In Luxembourg, a nationally centralised system, with no intermediate tier, places the next line of decision making immediately with municipalities. This paper examines how a structured shadow system emerges at the local scale to bridge gaps between national alerts and operational needs. Evidence is drawn from a focus group with municipal officials in a flood-affected community, including a flood-scenario exercise simulating an evolving rainfall event to examine decision-making under uncertainty. Thematic analysis shows that national flood alerts are generic, repetitive, and weakly linked to municipal thresholds for initiating preparedness measures. Ambiguous terminology, colour codes, and broad spatial and temporal framing limit their operational usefulness for local response. Frequent low-level alerts contribute to warning fatigue and erode trust. Officials construct meaning through institutional knowledge, lived experience, peer exchange, and heuristics. These locally embedded practices highlight the importance of scale, showing how municipal knowledge both localises and at times overrides national messages. The configuration strengthens local responsiveness but concentrates interpretive responsibility at municipal level without formal support, which can increase variability across jurisdictions. The analysis points to a need for impact-based, temporally precise, municipality-scale products with clear triggers and guidance co-developed with local officials and potentially residents, so that centrally issued forecasts can be converted into anticipatory action at the local level.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"29 ","pages":"Article 100513"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145926172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Taiwanese settlements vulnerability and risk of earthquakes – Case study of indigenous areas","authors":"Petra Nepožitková","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100524","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100524","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Taiwan is among the most disaster-prone countries in the world, periodically affected by strong earthquakes that pose a risk to marginalised populations. Taiwanese indigenous peoples tend to be affected by structural inequalities, which influence the way they are affected by natural hazards, as well as post-disaster reconstruction, disaster preparedness, and recovery. Thus, there is a need to map the socioeconomic vulnerability of settlements located in Indigenous Areas, especially vulnerable populations such as the elderly, women, children, and indigenous peoples. Socioeconomic vulnerability is related to the local population's risks arising from the interaction between the social system and earthquake hazard. This article employs the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) calculated from vulnerability indicators standardized using z-scores normalization to assess and map socioeconomic vulnerability in Indigenous Areas. The risk matrix combining SVI and hazard exposure identifies villages at the highest risk.</div><div>Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis reveals that villages in Indigenous Areas form a cluster of high SVI on the east coast and the southern part of the Central Mountains. The earthquake risk matrix shows that the Very High risk category covers a large part of the Indigenous Areas. Especially settlements located in areas surrounding the East Rift Valley and the east coast have both high SVI and risk, except for the major cities of Hualien and Taitung. Resulting risk maps offer an important insight that can be readily used by first responders, policy makers, and stakeholders to improve resilience and disaster management strategies for indigenous communities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"29 ","pages":"Article 100524"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146077852","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Rainfall-conditioned landslide susceptibility mapping using an FR–CART hybrid framework in southern Thailand","authors":"Thaksakorn Pornbunyanon ,&nbsp;Prasan Jitpat ,&nbsp;Piyapong Suwanno","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100530","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100530","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rainfall-induced landslides in the steep tropical terrain of southern Thailand pose significant challenges to communities, infrastructure, and regional development. This study presents a rainfall-responsive landslide susceptibility framework that integrates static spatial conditioning factors with dynamic rainfall information. A Frequency Ratio (FR) model was first applied to generate a static Landslide Susceptibility Index (LSI) using 17 geospatial variables representing topographic, geological, hydrological, and anthropogenic characteristics. To incorporate the temporal influence of precipitation, a Classification and Regression Tree (CART) model was employed using short-term rainfall metrics, including daily, 3-day, 7-day, and 15-day cumulative rainfall, to derive rainfall-triggering thresholds that conditionally refine existing susceptibility classes rather than generate a new susceptibility index or estimate landslide hazard probability.</div><div>Model validation shows that the standalone FR model achieved an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.74, while the integrated FR–CART framework improved performance to an AUC of 0.82. Among the rainfall indicators, the 15-day cumulative rainfall index exhibited the strongest association with landslide occurrences, emphasizing the role of antecedent moisture conditions. In this study, rainfall-conditioned susceptibility is explicitly defined as a rule-based upward adjustment of static LSI classes (e.g., from High to Very High) under real-time or forecasted rainfall scenarios. This conditioning process does not constitute the derivation of a new susceptibility index, nor does it imply probabilistic landslide hazard or risk assessment. The resulting rainfall-conditioned susceptibility outputs support susceptibility-informed interpretation within early-warning applications for monsoon-prone regions of southern Thailand.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"29 ","pages":"Article 100530"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146077854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Decision-making criteria for reverse triage in hospitalized patients following mass casualty incidents: A systematic literature review","authors":"Seyyed Ahmad Mohammadikia ,&nbsp;Fatemeh Falahati-Marvast ,&nbsp;Mahsa Khodayarian ,&nbsp;Ali Raee Ezzabadi ,&nbsp;Mohammad Reza Khajehaminian","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100516","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100516","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background and aim</h3><div>Mass casualty incidents pose substantial challenges to hospital surge capacity and resource management. Reverse triage has been recognized as a critical strategy for increasing bed availability through the early discharge of selected hospitalized patients. However, the absence of a consolidated, evidence-based, and operational framework of decision-making criteria has limited the systematic application of reverse triage in practice. This study aimed to systematically identify, synthesize, and categorize decision-making criteria for reverse triage of hospitalized patients following mass casualty incidents.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>This systematic literature review was conducted in accordance with the PRISMA 2020 guidelines. A comprehensive search of PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science databases was performed up to January 31, 2024. Studies addressing decision-making criteria for reverse triage in hospitalized patients were included without restrictions on study design or publication date. Two independent reviewers conducted study screening and data extraction. Study quality was assessed using the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool (MMAT), and extracted criteria were synthesized through thematic analysis.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>From 10,131 identified records, 19 studies met the inclusion criteria. A total of 374 initial criteria were extracted and synthesized into 34 final criteria. These criteria were organized into four main categories: (1) non-discharge criteria (12 criteria); (2) criteria for relatively stable patients requiring continued hospitalization (10 criteria); (3) social, environmental, or managerial barriers (9 criteria); and (4) supportive criteria for early discharge (3 criteria). In addition, the criteria were classified into four overarching domains: clinical, resource-related, individual, and other factors. Most included studies were assessed as high quality.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>This review provides the most comprehensive synthesis of reverse triage decision-making criteria to date and contributes to the standardization of early discharge decision-making in disaster contexts. The identified criteria offer a structured, evidence-informed foundation for the development of hospital discharge protocols and clinical decision support systems, with potential applicability to both mass casualty incidents and routine hospital overcrowding. Future research should prioritize prospective clinical validation of these criteria and explore their implementation across diverse healthcare systems, particularly in resource-limited settings.</div><div>Systematic review registration: PROSPERO CRD420251007355.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"29 ","pages":"Article 100516"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146077918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrating disaster risk reduction with planning and design across scales: A review of research trends, challenges, and solutions","authors":"Sihan Zhang ,&nbsp;Qian Wang ,&nbsp;Ruochen Ma ,&nbsp;Katsunori Furuya","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100531","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100531","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Integrating disaster risk reduction (DRR) with planning and design across spatial scales is critical for resilient and sustainable development, yet effective implementation remains a global challenge. Despite growing academic and policy attention, the field remains fragmented, hindering comprehensive risk management. This study adopts a bibliometric–systematic literature review (B-SLR) design, combining a bibliometric analysis of 3554 publications from the Web of Science (WOS), and an in-depth systematic literature review of 74 papers from the bibliometric review database. Bibliometric analysis clarifies the evolution (e.g. research output, collaboration, keyword trend and citation bursts), knowledge structure (e.g. keyword and citation network), and disciplinary configuration of related research (e.g. science categories), revealing how risk science, planning, and design have developed largely in parallel. The systematic review synthesizes integration barriers and solution pathways across institutional, legal, informational, and participatory dimensions. Building on these findings, we propose a three-pillar framework—legal–policy frameworks, digital platforms, and knowledge co-creation—explaining how governance arrangements, technological tools, and social processes jointly enable integration in planning and design scales. The review offers an analytical foundation for future empirical research and guidance for strengthening interdisciplinary collaboration and practice-oriented strategies for the integration of DRR with planning and design.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"29 ","pages":"Article 100531"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146173646","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Short text emergency warnings in high-risk settings: Behavioural and representational insights from the British high commission (BHC) in Nairobi, Kenya","authors":"Bishnu Pariyar ,&nbsp;Lillian Ngee Kimanthi","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100539","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100539","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Effective emergency warning systems rely not only on technological infrastructure but also on message design that supports rapid, accurate, and context-appropriate decision-making. As short text warning messages (STWMs) become central to institutional crisis communication systems, understanding their optimal structure and how staff interpret them during real emergencies has become a critical practical and theoretical question. This paper examines staff perceptions of STWMs within the British High Commission (BHC) in Nairobi, Kenya, a high-risk organisational environment characterised by dispersed mobility patterns, multi-level responsibilities, and heightened security threats. Drawing on Effective Use Theory (EUT), Nudge Theory (NT), and the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM), this paper develops a refined conceptual framework explaining how representational fidelity and behavioural design interact to shape message utility. Using a cross-sectional mixed-methods survey, the paper identifies staff preferences across five message components: location, guidance, incident description, time to act, and source. Findings demonstrate that spatial specificity, imperative guidance, and temporal urgency constitute the “core triad” of high-utility content, while message source becomes less salient after trust is established. Variations across staff roles, working regimes, and risk proximity highlight the need for role-sensitive and mobility-aware tailoring. The paper argues that effective institutional warning messages must balance cognitive efficiency, behavioural prompting, and contextual relevance. The study contributes new empirical evidence and a refined theoretical model that can guide STWM design in diplomatic, governmental, and humanitarian organisations operating in high-risk environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"29 ","pages":"Article 100539"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147395963","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Displacement due to riverbank Erosion: A threat to education in Bangladesh","authors":"Sanjoy Kumar Saha ,&nbsp;Mehedi Hasan ,&nbsp;Mohammad Bin Amin ,&nbsp;Zoltán Bács","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100514","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100514","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Riverbank erosion is a recurrent natural hazard in Bangladesh that causes large-scale displacement and poses a serious threat to human capital formation, particularly education. This study investigates the impact of erosion-induced displacement on schooling outcomes in erosion-prone communities along the Jamuna River using a mixed-methods approach. Distinct from existing studies that primarily emphasize income and livelihood losses, this research explicitly links environmental displacement to educational vulnerability. The quantitative findings reveal that 38–42 % of displaced children experienced temporary or permanent school dropout, compared to 18–21 % among non-displaced households. On average, displaced children lost 1.2–1.5 years of schooling, and school attendance declined by nearly 25 % immediately after displacement. Econometric results indicate that displacement significantly reduces years of schooling and attendance even after controlling for household income, parental education, and access to basic services. More frequent displacement further worsens educational outcomes and increases child labor, while early marriage substantially reduces female educational attainment. Larger household size and income instability also constrain educational investment. Qualitative evidence identifies housing loss, repeated relocation, increased child labor, and greater distance to schools as key transmission channels. The findings highlight the importance of integrated disaster management, planned resettlement, and education-continuity policies in erosion-prone and deltaic regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"29 ","pages":"Article 100514"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145926239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Active participation of people with disabilities in disaster preparedness and contingency work: A systematic literature review on methods, outcomes, and challenges","authors":"Linda Stjernholm ,&nbsp;Jonas Borell ,&nbsp;Anna-Lisa Osvalder","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100502","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100502","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Disaster risk reduction (DRR) strategies must actively include people with disabilities (PWD) to ensure equitable and effective preparedness. Although awareness of disability inclusion in DRR is growing, the literature remains fragmented, and no prior structured literature review has focused specifically on participatory methods involving PWD. This review addresses that gap by identifying and synthesizing evidence on how PWD have been engaged in disaster preparedness and contingency planning. Following a structured process inspired by PRISMA and using the PICO framework, searches in Scopus and Web of Science yielded 720 articles, of which 20 peer-reviewed studies from 12 countries were included. The studies employed diverse participatory methods such as interviews, focus groups, co-design workshops, photovoice, and multi-stakeholder consultations. These approaches led to increased preparedness, empowerment, and leadership among PWD, while also strengthening community networks and collaboration with DRR personnel. However, challenges such as communication barriers, limited resources, and exclusion of marginalized groups were common. To conclude, this review offers the first comprehensive synthesis of participatory methods for disability-inclusive DRR, highlighting both their transformative potential and the need for more inclusive, tailored strategies in future research and practice.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"29 ","pages":"Article 100502"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145790933","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of open-source SAR-based flood datasets for flood extent mapping in emergency settings","authors":"Ira Karrel San Jose ,&nbsp;Sesa Wiguna ,&nbsp;Ryohei Kametaka ,&nbsp;Bruno Adriano ,&nbsp;Erick Mas ,&nbsp;Shunichi Koshimura","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100507","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100507","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The increasing frequency and severity of flood events, exacerbated by climate change, continue to threaten vulnerable communities worldwide, particularly in low-lying and coastal regions. Timely and accurate flood extent mapping is critical for supporting decision-making and resource allocation during disaster response operations. Advances in machine learning (ML) models, such as deep learning (DL), and the growing availability of Earth observation (EO) data have made automated inundation mapping more viable. However, the reliability of these models is highly dependent on the quality, diversity, and representativeness of the training datasets. Therefore, this study investigates several remote sensing flood datasets, both optical and synthetic aperture radar (SAR), to assess their applicability in emergency response settings. Based on the initial assessment and advantages of using SAR imagery in flood detection, the study evaluates five publicly available Sentinel-1 flood datasets using a DL segmentation model to determine their suitability for emergency response scenarios. Datasets with multi-temporal inputs and high-quality labels achieved superior F1 scores ranging from 0.844 to 0.959. To assess their ability to support emergency operations, the trained models were further tested on three independent flood disasters. While the datasets performed well on their test samples, their predictive accuracy declined substantially when applied to these new flood events, highlighting limitations in current dataset generalizability. The results emphasize that while segmentation models can achieve high accuracy in familiar sites, real-world applications require datasets that capture the heterogeneity of flood scenarios across different regions and conditions. An improved flood dataset design, incorporating multi-temporal and coherence data, a standardized preprocessing framework, and a broader flood geographic distribution, is significant in building reproducible and robust flood detection models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"29 ","pages":"Article 100507"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145926170","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How arts and cultural activities can reduce disaster risk and improve recovery outcomes: An interdisciplinary scoping review with thematic synthesis","authors":"Claire Hooker ,&nbsp;Anna Kennedy-Borissow ,&nbsp;Natasha Beaumont ,&nbsp;Isabelle Galet-Lalande","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100501","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100501","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Arts and cultural activities are important and increasing components of disaster recovery and resilience programs worldwide. But to date there has been little formal research about these activities and there is little evidence to inform best practice, implementation or impact assessment. This review of published research of arts participation and disaster risk reduction addresses this gap. The characteristics of this heterogenous field are presented, and three dominant themes, six content themes, and one epistemic theme are identified. Results show that arts participation programs can powerfully contribute to community wellbeing in disaster contexts, catalyse improvements in disaster education and disaster preparedness, and support communities to make sense of disaster experiences, to imagine alternative futures, and to reconfigure identity in connection to place. Through thematic synthesis, four models are presented to explain core processes and dimensions evident in arts participation programs within disaster contexts across multiple studies. These models could be applied to improve program efficacy in meeting disaster risk reduction goals. This review also demonstrates the urgent need for more rigorous research in this field, especially studies that produce evidence to inform planning, implementing and assessing the impact of arts and cultural activities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"29 ","pages":"Article 100501"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145926175","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}