Progress in Disaster Science最新文献

Flood hazards and socioeconomic vulnerability across Arkansas: A geospatial cyberinfrastructure 阿肯色州的洪水灾害和社会经济脆弱性：地理空间网络基础设施

IF 3.8

Progress in Disaster Science Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-05-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100591

Brad G. Peter , Abigail Unger , Ebrahim Hamidi , Coy Morris , Sagy Cohen , Xiao Huang

{"title":"Flood hazards and socioeconomic vulnerability across Arkansas: A geospatial cyberinfrastructure","authors":"Brad G. Peter , Abigail Unger , Ebrahim Hamidi , Coy Morris , Sagy Cohen , Xiao Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100591","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100591","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Across Arkansas, floods pose a significant risk to the natural environment and both rural and urban communities. This work integrates flood hazards and socioeconomic indicators across the state to map the exposure landscape and deliver a state-wide geospatial cyberinfrastructure (GCI). Flood depths within the 100-year floodplain were estimated using a terrain-based model and geospatial analytics were used to identify at-risk infrastructure and flood-prone populations. The work utilizes a combination of datasets, including elevation, land-use/land-cover, and socioeconomics to analyze flood susceptibility. Spatial statistics were used to elucidate local-scale clustering of flood vulnerability to address concerns surrounding exposure and recovery capacity. The GCI allows for interactive visualization and quantification of flood exposure at the census tract and pixel scales. Findings indicate that urban centers, such as Little Rock and Fort Smith contain substantial development in flood-prone zones, though the majority of flood domain intersects with rural areas. In particular, agricultural regions of the Mississippi Delta experience expansive inundation, jeopardizing economic stability and rural family livelihoods. Ultimately, this research contributes to a broader understanding of flood risk in Arkansas and facilitates resilience planning in flood-prone communities by integrating spatial analysis with socioeconomics, providing a foundation for decision-making that is driven by spatial data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100591"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147951435","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A Fuzzy-Bayesian belief network model for coastal flood vulnerability assessment 沿海洪水易损性评价的模糊贝叶斯信念网络模型

IF 3.8

Progress in Disaster Science Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-05-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100583

Valentina Velandia-Diaz , Emilio Bastidas-Arteaga , Axel Creach , Solomon Tesfamariam

{"title":"A Fuzzy-Bayesian belief network model for coastal flood vulnerability assessment","authors":"Valentina Velandia-Diaz , Emilio Bastidas-Arteaga , Axel Creach , Solomon Tesfamariam","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100583","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100583","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Flood risk poses a significant threat to coastal areas, with climate change and urbanization intensifying the frequency and severity of flood events. Effective flood risk management requires quantifying vulnerability while accounting for the inherent uncertainty in residential areas exposed to coastal hazards. This study revisits the flood vulnerability index (VIE), which evaluates life loss risk in residential buildings using four microscale criteria, and enhances it with a fuzzy Bayesian belief network (FBBN). The FBBN framework integrates uncertainty and conditional dependencies into the assessment by fuzzifying input criteria and estimating the probability of buildings belonging to various vulnerability classes. The proposed framework was applied to a case study on the island of Noirmoutier (France), evaluating the vulnerability of 21,046 buildings across four flooding scenarios. The FBBN demonstrated good consistency with the original deterministic VIE index, with less than 3% outliers in classification results. Sensitivity analysis identified architectural typology as the most influential criterion, contributing 10%–11% variance reduction across all scenarios. The FBBN provided probabilistic and geo-spatial representations of vulnerability, offering a deeper understanding of risk distribution. These insights enhance decision-making in flood adaptation planning, supporting more targeted and effective mitigation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100583"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147951439","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Happiness of people with disabilities as a disaster-vulnerable group: Mediating effect of perceived vulnerability 残障人士作为灾害弱势群体的幸福感：感知脆弱性的中介效应

IF 3.8

Progress in Disaster Science Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100581

Byungyun Choi

{"title":"Happiness of people with disabilities as a disaster-vulnerable group: Mediating effect of perceived vulnerability","authors":"Byungyun Choi","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100581","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100581","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines how individual and community contexts relate to happiness among adults with disabilities and tests perceived disaster vulnerability as a policy-relevant mechanism linking context to well-being. Using an anonymous survey of 400 adults with disabilities living in Seoul, South Korea (September–October 2020), the analysis estimates the associations of socioeconomic status, disability severity, and environmental conditions with happiness and assesses indirect effects via perceived disaster vulnerability using bootstrapped mediation models. Happiness differs significantly by income, education, and disability severity. Perceived disaster vulnerability is negatively associated with happiness and partially mediates the relationships between education and disability severity and happiness. In contrast, environmental dimensions—such as formal health and welfare services and physical convenience—show direct associations with happiness but do not operate through perceived vulnerability. The findings suggest that disability-inclusive disaster policy can enhance well-being when it reliably reduces experienced vulnerability through accessible risk communication, practical preparedness supports, and trusted community-based implementation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100581"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147849769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Fast arrival-time modelling of dike breach floods for effective disaster management 堤防决口洪水快速到达时间模型的有效灾害管理

IF 3.8

Progress in Disaster Science Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100565

Leon S. Besseling, Anouk Bomers, Jord J. Warmink, Suzanne J.M.H. Hulscher

{"title":"Fast arrival-time modelling of dike breach floods for effective disaster management","authors":"Leon S. Besseling, Anouk Bomers, Jord J. Warmink, Suzanne J.M.H. Hulscher","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100565","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100565","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Modelling of flood arrival times after a dike breach is essential for efficient flood disaster management, shaping evacuation strategies and effective disaster response. However, common hydrodynamic models remain too computationally expensive for real-time flood forecasting, while current surrogate models have so far not been able to simulate flood arrival times for dike breaches. In this study, we develop a fast conceptual model for this purpose, based on a digital elevation model and a linear regression equation for flood propagation velocity. The linear regression was derived from a sensitivity analysis of hydrodynamic simulations of idealized dike breaches, where we identify the most important hinterland characteristics that determine the flood propagation velocity. The sensitivity analysis shows that hinterland slope in the propagation direction is most important for the propagation velocity, while breach discharge is most important close to the breach. The fast conceptual model computes flood arrival times by applying this linear regression along the local drainage direction (steepest slope) path leading away from the breach, taking peak breach discharge as input. The model achieves accurate results for two case study dike breaches along the Rhine river near the Dutch–German border, especially in the first 48 h after the breach. The mean absolute arrival time error is about 2 to 4 h, and computation time is less than a second. We conclude that this model can serve as a fast disaster preparation and response tool to support flood disaster management, for determining evacuation strategies and uncertainty analysis of possible breach discharge scenarios.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100565"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147657201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Knowledge, attitude, and practice toward women-led climate adaptation in Bangladesh 孟加拉国妇女主导的气候适应的知识、态度和实践

IF 3.8

Progress in Disaster Science Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-05-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100593

Md. Tanvir Hasan Sojib , Mohammed Moniruzzaman Khan , Sheikh Mohiuddin Shahrujjaman , Zawad Ibn Farid , Raisa Imran Chowdhury , Musfique Rahman

{"title":"Knowledge, attitude, and practice toward women-led climate adaptation in Bangladesh","authors":"Md. Tanvir Hasan Sojib , Mohammed Moniruzzaman Khan , Sheikh Mohiuddin Shahrujjaman , Zawad Ibn Farid , Raisa Imran Chowdhury , Musfique Rahman","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100593","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100593","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Bangladesh, one of the most climate-vulnerable countries globally, faces recurrent hazards that disproportionately affect women because of entrenched socioeconomic and cultural inequalities. Although women's critical roles in climate adaptation are increasingly acknowledged, limited empirical evidence exists on their actual knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) related to adaptation and resilience. This study assessed women's KAP toward women-led climate adaptation in climate-vulnerable districts of Bangladesh using a descriptive cross-sectional survey design. A total of 393 women were interviewed through structured questionnaires administered via KoboToolbox. The results showed that 43.3% of respondents had a high level of knowledge, while 90.3% demonstrated a highly positive attitude toward women-led climate adaptation. However, only 32.6% exhibited high levels of adaptive practice, mostly limited to household-level measures such as reinforcing houses, storing emergency supplies, and taking early warning precautions. The final multivariate regression model revealed that higher knowledge (b = 2.93, <em>p</em> < 0.01) and positive attitudes (b = 2.26, p < 0.01) significantly predicted adaptation practices, while training participation (b = 1.23, <em>p</em> < 0.001), exposure to shocks (b = 1.33, p < 0.001), and NGO (Non-Government Organization) support (b = 1.10, p < 0.001) acted as strong external enablers. The study concludes that women in Bangladesh possess substantial adaptive potential; however, institutional and structural barriers continue to limit transformative adaptation. Strengthening women's leadership, capacity-building initiatives, and gender-responsive policy integration can enhance women-led adaptation and support the achievement of SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals) 5, 10, and 13.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100593"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147951436","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Civil society and AI-enhanced disaster resilience in East Asia: Comparative insights from China, Japan, and Korea 东亚的公民社会和人工智能增强的抗灾能力：来自中国、日本和韩国的比较见解

IF 3.8

Progress in Disaster Science Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-05-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100592

Qingyue Du , Rajib Shaw , Artūras Kaklauskas

引用次数: 0

Agricultural insurance in China: Development and challenge 中国农业保险：发展与挑战

IF 3.8

Progress in Disaster Science Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100567

Huifen Pan

{"title":"Agricultural insurance in China: Development and challenge","authors":"Huifen Pan","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100567","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100567","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate-induced shifts in long-run weather patterns alter the probability distribution of extreme weather shocks, which markedly erode agricultural productivity and endanger global food security. By transferring stochastic weather risk—whose underlying probabilities are elevated by climate change—agricultural insurance not only shields farmers from catastrophic shocks but also stimulates investment decisions. To improve risk management efficiency, and fortify food security infrastructure, we combine a bundle of approaches to research China's agricultural insurance, including statistical analyses, questionnaire survey and direct interviews. Tracing the policy mechanisms introduced since 1982, we delineate two distinct stages in China's agricultural insurance evolution. The present subsidy-based system has substantially reduced aggregate disaster exposure over the past eighteen years. Yet beneath these aggregate gains lie widespread lack of knowledge and persistent under-adoption, both symptoms of an enduring capital shortfall in the insurance pool. Drawing on risk- layering principles, we propose the creation of Agricultural Insurance Investment Funds that bundle existing subsidy-based policies, thereby improving the efficiency of China's agricultural insurance system.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100567"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147797604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Assessing smart city contributions to urban resilience toward disasters 评估智慧城市对城市抗灾能力的贡献

IF 3.8

Progress in Disaster Science Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100582

Ratih Dyah Kusumastuti , N. Nurmala , Juliana Rouli , Ledi Trialdi

{"title":"Assessing smart city contributions to urban resilience toward disasters","authors":"Ratih Dyah Kusumastuti , N. Nurmala , Juliana Rouli , Ledi Trialdi","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100582","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100582","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>It has been suggested that initiating smart city programs can significantly enhance the quality of life in urban areas, including their resilience to disasters. This study aims to empirically examine the relationship between smart city initiatives and urban resilience to both fast-onset and slow-onset disasters. The study employs focus group discussions (FGDs) with key stakeholders and a citizens' survey. The research was conducted across four Indonesian cities that have adopted smart city initiatives and are known to be vulnerable to various types of disasters. The findings indicate that smart city initiatives generally correlate with resilience. More specifically, the people dimension of smart city initiatives exhibits the strongest association with urban resilience, particularly in the preparedness phase of fast-onset disasters, followed by smart living and smart economy dimensions. The extent of these correlations varies among the cities studied, which highlights the local initiatives. This study provides critical insights for policymakers and city planners, emphasizing the importance of customizing smart city strategies to enhance urban resilience and improve overall disaster management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100582"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148001626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

GraphCSVAE: Graph categorical structured variational autoencoder for spatiotemporal auditing of physical vulnerability towards sustainable post-disaster risk reduction 面向可持续地减少灾后风险的物理脆弱性时空审计的图形分类结构变分自编码器

IF 3.8

Progress in Disaster Science Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-05-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100601

Joshua Dimasaka , Christian Geiß , Robert Muir-Wood , Emily So

{"title":"GraphCSVAE: Graph categorical structured variational autoencoder for spatiotemporal auditing of physical vulnerability towards sustainable post-disaster risk reduction","authors":"Joshua Dimasaka , Christian Geiß , Robert Muir-Wood , Emily So","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100601","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100601","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the aftermath of disasters, many institutions worldwide face challenges in monitoring changes in disaster risk, limiting assessment of progress towards the UN Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. While numerous efforts have substantially advanced the large-scale modeling of hazard and exposure through Earth observation and data-driven methods, progress remains limited in modeling another equally important yet challenging element of the risk equation: physical vulnerability. To address this gap, we introduce <u>Graph</u> <u>C</u>ategorical <u>S</u>tructured <u>V</u>ariational <u>A</u>uto<u>e</u>ncoder (<strong><span>GraphCSVAE</span></strong>), a probabilistic data-driven framework for modeling physical vulnerability by integrating deep learning, graph representation, and categorical probabilistic inference, using time-series satellite-derived datasets and expert priors. We introduce a weakly supervised first-order transition matrix to capture changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of vulnerability across two disaster-affected and socioeconomically disadvantaged regions: the cyclone-impacted Khurushkul community in Bangladesh and the mudslide-affected city of Freetown in Sierra Leone. Across both case studies, the framework constructs large-scale graph representations spanning 2016–2023 and evaluates posterior compositional distributions against expert priors using Aitchison distance due to the lack of temporal groundtruth labels. The work reveals post-disaster regional dynamics in physical vulnerability, offering valuable insights into localized spatiotemporal auditing and sustainable strategies for post-disaster risk reduction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100601"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148177655","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The role of local development plans in addressing climate change: A case study of Isfahan metropolitan city, Iran 地方发展计划在应对气候变化中的作用：以伊朗伊斯法罕市为例

IF 3.8

Progress in Disaster Science Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-05-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100598

Hashem Dadashpoor, Zahra Mahvash Mohammadi

{"title":"The role of local development plans in addressing climate change: A case study of Isfahan metropolitan city, Iran","authors":"Hashem Dadashpoor, Zahra Mahvash Mohammadi","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100598","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100598","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Development plans, as strategic documents that guide investment and organize the spatial structure of a city, must be sensitive and responsive to the increasing risks posed by climate change. However, it remains unclear which explicit and implicit policies these plans propose to address climate issues and how these policies align within the dual frameworks of “adaptation” and “mitigation, the primary strategies for combating climate change. Thus, a comprehensive study is required to identify these policies as key climate themes, to map the network of relationships among them, and to assess the extent to which development plans incorporate each of the proposed approaches for addressing climate change in the local development plans. This research aims to clarify how both implicit and explicit key climate themes are reflected in local development plans in response to climate change. This study used an integrative approach, employing a “reflexive-network” analysis of themes to examine the content of the data. Seven recent development plans from the Isfahan metropolitan city were analyzed as a case study. The results indicate that adaptation policies to climate change are more prominently emphasized than emission reduction and source control policies. However, the plans show insufficient internal coherence and continuity. The results indicate that the marginalization of climate change is primarily due to insufficient climate awareness, weak climate planning, and institutional fragmentation. Therefore, three policy areas are proposed: reforming economic priorities, enhancing climate planning and literacy, and promoting institutional integration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100598"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148177738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0