Progress in Disaster Science最新文献

{"title":"Fast arrival-time modelling of dike breach floods for effective disaster management","authors":"Leon S. Besseling,&nbsp;Anouk Bomers,&nbsp;Jord J. Warmink,&nbsp;Suzanne J.M.H. Hulscher","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100565","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100565","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Modelling of flood arrival times after a dike breach is essential for efficient flood disaster management, shaping evacuation strategies and effective disaster response. However, common hydrodynamic models remain too computationally expensive for real-time flood forecasting, while current surrogate models have so far not been able to simulate flood arrival times for dike breaches. In this study, we develop a fast conceptual model for this purpose, based on a digital elevation model and a linear regression equation for flood propagation velocity. The linear regression was derived from a sensitivity analysis of hydrodynamic simulations of idealized dike breaches, where we identify the most important hinterland characteristics that determine the flood propagation velocity. The sensitivity analysis shows that hinterland slope in the propagation direction is most important for the propagation velocity, while breach discharge is most important close to the breach. The fast conceptual model computes flood arrival times by applying this linear regression along the local drainage direction (steepest slope) path leading away from the breach, taking peak breach discharge as input. The model achieves accurate results for two case study dike breaches along the Rhine river near the Dutch–German border, especially in the first 48 h after the breach. The mean absolute arrival time error is about 2 to 4 h, and computation time is less than a second. We conclude that this model can serve as a fast disaster preparation and response tool to support flood disaster management, for determining evacuation strategies and uncertainty analysis of possible breach discharge scenarios.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100565"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147657201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Happiness of people with disabilities as a disaster-vulnerable group: Mediating effect of perceived vulnerability","authors":"Byungyun Choi","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100581","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100581","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines how individual and community contexts relate to happiness among adults with disabilities and tests perceived disaster vulnerability as a policy-relevant mechanism linking context to well-being. Using an anonymous survey of 400 adults with disabilities living in Seoul, South Korea (September–October 2020), the analysis estimates the associations of socioeconomic status, disability severity, and environmental conditions with happiness and assesses indirect effects via perceived disaster vulnerability using bootstrapped mediation models. Happiness differs significantly by income, education, and disability severity. Perceived disaster vulnerability is negatively associated with happiness and partially mediates the relationships between education and disability severity and happiness. In contrast, environmental dimensions—such as formal health and welfare services and physical convenience—show direct associations with happiness but do not operate through perceived vulnerability. The findings suggest that disability-inclusive disaster policy can enhance well-being when it reliably reduces experienced vulnerability through accessible risk communication, practical preparedness supports, and trusted community-based implementation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100581"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147849769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Agricultural insurance in China: Development and challenge","authors":"Huifen Pan","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100567","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100567","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate-induced shifts in long-run weather patterns alter the probability distribution of extreme weather shocks, which markedly erode agricultural productivity and endanger global food security. By transferring stochastic weather risk—whose underlying probabilities are elevated by climate change—agricultural insurance not only shields farmers from catastrophic shocks but also stimulates investment decisions. To improve risk management efficiency, and fortify food security infrastructure, we combine a bundle of approaches to research China's agricultural insurance, including statistical analyses, questionnaire survey and direct interviews. Tracing the policy mechanisms introduced since 1982, we delineate two distinct stages in China's agricultural insurance evolution. The present subsidy-based system has substantially reduced aggregate disaster exposure over the past eighteen years. Yet beneath these aggregate gains lie widespread lack of knowledge and persistent under-adoption, both symptoms of an enduring capital shortfall in the insurance pool. Drawing on risk- layering principles, we propose the creation of Agricultural Insurance Investment Funds that bundle existing subsidy-based policies, thereby improving the efficiency of China's agricultural insurance system.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100567"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147797604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"SAR based approach for rapid flood impact assessment on agriculture and human exposure","authors":"Gautam Dadhich ,&nbsp;Mukand S. Babel ,&nbsp;Hiroyuki Miyazaki ,&nbsp;Salvatore G.P. Virdis","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100558","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100558","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study presents an innovative framework for rapid flood impact assessment on agriculture using Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data at 10-meter resolution, integrated with Google Earth Engine (GEE). In September 2019, an exceptional flood event, characterized as a 32-year return period flood, impacted the northeastern provinces of Thailand, including Yasothon, Amnat Charoen, Ubon Ratchathani, Si Sa Ket, Roi Et, and Kalasin. This event, precipitated by the convergence of Tropical Storm PODUL and Tropical Depression KAJIKI, led to substantial human and economic losses. The methodology employs: (i) flood mapping with an enhanced Kittler-Illingworth thresholding technique incorporating terrain correction to mitigate slope-dependent backscatter variations; (ii) crop classification using a novel Dual Polarization SAR Vegetation Index (DpSVI); and (iii) robust validation against field data and optical imagery. The analysis encompassed flood extent determination, flooded agricultural area quantification, crop type distribution (Sugarcane, Cassava, Maize, and Rubber), assessment of crop type area affected by flooding, and evaluation of farmers’ exposure to flooding from September 1st to September 30th, 2019. Results indicate that 3890.4 km² (8.4% of the study area) was flooded, with Yasothon experiencing the highest agricultural impact (19.6% of its agricultural area). The framework demonstrates high accuracy (Overall Accuracy: 82.6%, Kappa: 0.94) and temporal generalizability through validation against 2018 and 2020 flood events. This approach enhances disaster response by providing reliable, cloud-independent flood and crop impact assessments, supporting targeted recovery strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100558"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147602138","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Demographic changes associated with rainfall-induced landslides and floods in a rural area with a declining population: A case study in Asakura City, Northern Kyushu, Japan","authors":"Tadamichi Sato ,&nbsp;Yasuhiro Shuin","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100560","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100560","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Landslide disasters often occur in rural settings; however, their demographic impacts have not been sufficiently examined. This study demonstrated the demographic changes associated with the 2017 rainfall-induced landslides and floods in Asakura City, Japan, a rural locality that is experiencing population decline. The onset and persistence of demographic changes following disaster were identified based on deviations from pre-disaster population trends using the logarithm of population change. Among Asakura's 19 communities, three that were already experiencing population decline exhibited impacts from the disaster. In these areas, accelerated decline persisted for 1–5 years, with 1.9 to 3.4 times greater than the pre-disaster levels. Analysis using a penalized logistic model revealed that the magnitude of physical damage (fatalities, housing damage, and road damage), rather than hazard magnitude (area coverage of landslides, floods, and woody debris deposits), was related to whether demographic changes occurred. In particular, the housing damage rate emerged as the strongest explanatory factor. Furthermore, the duration of population decline was positively correlated with the extent of physical damage. This study provides additional empirical evidence for the disaster–demography literature and supports decision-making for more effective landslide mitigation and community sustainability in the face of climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100560"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147602139","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Urban Heat Island Hazard and disaster risk in major Pakistani cities: Spatiotemporal analysis, vulnerability assessment, and risk reduction strategies","authors":"Huma Shakoor ,&nbsp;Waqas Naseem ,&nbsp;Ale Azad Othman ,&nbsp;Syed Hamid Hussain ,&nbsp;Muhammad Shahab ,&nbsp;Fahad Alshehri ,&nbsp;Syed Hanzila Azhar ,&nbsp;Tabish Rasool","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100580","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100580","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban Heat Islands (UHI) represent a growing climate-associated disaster risk in rapidly urbanizing cities, where expanding impervious surfaces, declining vegetation, and weak governance intensify thermal hazard and population vulnerability. This study presents a spatiotemporal analysis of UHI hazard, vegetation-temperature dynamics, and urban expansion across four Pakistani cities using MODIS and Landsat 8 imagery, Pakistan Meteorological Department records, and urban planning documents spanning 2000 to 2023, integrated through GIS spatial analysis, Pearson correlation, and linear regression.</div><div>Karachi recorded the highest urban-rural temperature differential at 4.5 °C, followed by Lahore (4.1 °C), Faisalabad (3.8 °C), and Islamabad (2.5 °C). A strong inverse NDVI-LST correlation (mean <em>r</em> = −0.76, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.01) was confirmed across all cities, establishing vegetation loss as the primary controllable driver of thermal hazard. Annual temperatures rose 0.12 to 0.16 °C per year, heatwave days doubled in Lahore and Faisalabad, and urban expansion ranged from 34% to 62% between 2000 and 2022 without green infrastructure integration.</div><div>All four cities lack heat action plans, climate-sensitive zoning, and mandatory green coverage standards, with low-income settlements bearing disproportionate thermal exposure. A multi-tiered disaster risk reduction framework aligned with the Sendai Framework 2015–2030 is proposed, encompassing urban greening mandates, heat early-warning systems, climate-resilient zoning, and ecological buffer preservation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100580"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147797603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigating human heat stress: A systematic review of research approaches and methodologies","authors":"Mabel B. Ndlovu ,&nbsp;Phindile T.Z Sabela-Rikhotso ,&nbsp;Babatunde J. Abiodun","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100578","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100578","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Heat stress is a complex, multifaceted phenomenon shaped by human physiology, socio-economic conditions, and climatic factors, with far-reaching implications for communities and economic productivity. Despite extensive research across disciplines, the field remains fragmented, with approaches often applied in isolation, resulting in partial and non-comparable understandings. This fragmentation has reinforced the assumption that heat stress can be adequately characterised using a single dominant method, most commonly heat stress indices, with limited guidance on how to select appropriate methods for different research purposes, despite their direct influence on risk assessment and policy relevance. This systematic literature review examines four key approaches namely, heat stress indices, temperature-only, subjective, and mixed methods, by identifying their characteristics, strengths, and limitations. Following PRISMA guidelines, 74 studies were reviewed and comparatively assessed using the IPCC disaster risk framework to evaluate how each approach represents hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The findings highlight that methodological choices must align with study objectives, data availability, and intended policy outcomes. This review provides a foundation for more coherent and comparable assessments and offers a structured guide for method selection in heat stress research and risk reduction policy while also highlighting pathways for advancing interdisciplinary integration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100578"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147797605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Gender-responsive climate resilience through community-based adaptation: A policy-practice interface study in southern Bangladesh","authors":"Raisa Imran Chowdhury,&nbsp;Md. Asib Hossain,&nbsp;Zawad Ibn Farid","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100568","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100568","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change brings severe gendered impacts in southern Bangladesh. Evidence is available of high rates of female displacement, increases in gender based violence, climate driven child marriage, and disruptions of menstrual hygiene and water access. These conditions add to the vulnerability of coastal communities affected by salinity and recurring hazards. This study looks at the link between policy frameworks for national climate and disaster policies and community based adaptation practice, and in particular the disconnect between gender commitments in the policy framework and their implementation at the local level. The study outlines a governance pathway framework, which describes how policy commitments travel through stages of institutional translation and program implementation before influencing community outcomes. The research assesses governance mechanisms, institutional capacity and measurement limitations which limit verification of gender responsive resilience. Key limitations include lack of gender disaggregated indicators, weak financing mandates, little monitoring of e.g. gender based violence outcomes, and a lack of inclusion of adolescents and persons with disabilities. Findings show that policies such as BCCSAP, NAPA, ccGAP, NPDM, and BCCTF make reference to gender equality but have no mechanisms for enforcement, coordination arrangements, and gender responsive budgeting provisions. Institutional fragmentation as well as monitoring systems that focus on indicators of participation undermine a policy translation into operational programs. Community based adaptation initiatives document participation but few improve decision authority and access to services for women and marginalized groups. The recommendations of the study include gender outcome reporting, better representation of women in local governance structures, including gender risk mitigation in adaptation programs, and standardization of gender responsive resilience indicators to support equitable resilience outcomes in coastal saline belt.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100568"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147702822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Protocol for a climate-health risk profile for Jamaica: Integrating a systematic country profile with a scoping review of hurricane-related public health impacts","authors":"Fanuel Alemayehu Tefera ,&nbsp;Arooj Abid ,&nbsp;Tashfeen Akram ,&nbsp;Ruth Omoh Eboye ,&nbsp;Ahmed Hassen Mohummed ,&nbsp;Mah Noor ,&nbsp;Helal Uddin ,&nbsp;Rafael Castro-Delgado","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100576","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100576","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Climate change has led to increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather-related events, posing a threat to global health security. Situated in the Atlantic Ocean Basin, Jamaica is highly exposed to multiple natural hazards. Despite this, limited research has examined the direct public health impacts of hurricanes.</div></div><div><h3>Objective</h3><div>To systematically develop a Climate-Health Risk Profile for Jamaica by integrating a country profile with multiple dimensions assessing exposure, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity, with a scoping review of the documented public health impacts of Hurricanes in Jamaica.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>This study will use a sequential multi-method study design. We will conduct two complementary studies and integrate the findings. First, a descriptive country case study will be done using desk review and document analysis to develop a country-health risk profile assessing various national domains. Next, a scoping review will follow PRISMA-ScR guidelines, with a systematic search of 8 databases and grey literature to assess documented health impacts. Finally, a thematic and narrative synthesis will analyze the public health impacts in light of the country's vulnerabilities.</div></div><div><h3>Expected outcome</h3><div>A detailed analysis of the public health impacts of hurricanes contextualized within systemic vulnerabilities that will contribute to advancing climate-health research and informing targeted policy in public health preparedness, disaster risk reduction, and climate adaptation strategies for Small Island Developing States (SIDS).</div></div><div><h3>Ethics and dissemination</h3><div>This study uses publicly available existing data and published articles; ethical approval is not required. However, all data used and sources will be rigorously cited. Findings will be disseminated to peer-reviewed journals and presented at conferences.</div></div><div><h3>Open science framework registration ID</h3><div>osf.io/mcnsy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100576"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147702823","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Network-based GIS modeling for flood evacuation route plan in Saghata Upazila, Bangladesh","authors":"Jannatun Hussna Tuya ,&nbsp;Abu Hamjalal Babu ,&nbsp;Mahmudul Hasan Showrov ,&nbsp;Sharier Alif","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100586","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100586","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Bangladesh is highly susceptible to recurrent and devastating floods due to its geographic location. This research investigates the application of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in developing flood evacuation route plans based on available spatial data at the local scale with a case study in Saghata Upazila, Gaibandha District. The study integrates spatial analyses, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) as a multi-criteria decision-making technique, and weighted overlay to generate flood vulnerability maps based on key conditioning factors: elevation, slope, drainage density, rainfall, proximity to rivers, and land use. Road network analysis using Dijkstra's algorithm further identifies optimal evacuation routes to available flood shelter and administrative centers accounting for both shortest distance and travel time. Findings reveal that eastern Saghata is the most flood-prone area due to its low elevation and proximity to the river. Also, critical infrastructures are often spatially mismatched with high-density populations. This study is intended as a planning-level GIS-based framework developed under data-limited conditions. The research demonstrates how GIS can inform resilient evacuation planning with limited local-scale spatial data, highlighting the need for construction and decentralized shelter distribution, the availability of diverse local-scale spatial datasets, and real-time spatial data integration. The study contributes to disaster risk reduction by providing actionable spatial insights for local policymakers, emergency responders, and planners.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100586"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147797602","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}