Progress in Disaster Science最新文献

{"title":"Does forecast-based financing (FbF) lower women's vulnerability to flooding?","authors":"Fabiha Rahman ,&nbsp;Shampa ,&nbsp;Sonia Binte Murshed ,&nbsp;Mashfiqus Salehin ,&nbsp;Faisal Mahmud Sakib ,&nbsp;Erin Coughlan de Perez","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100389","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100389","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Forecast-based financing (FbF) is gaining traction globally in the humanitarian sector as a critical tool for reducing disaster risk. Global and national literature on FbF mainly shed light on the effectiveness in reducing household-level vulnerability without a particular focus on women's specific vulnerability. This study uses qualitative methods to analyze rural Bangladeshi women's riverine flood challenges and whether the FbF has reduced their vulnerability to flooding. The study was conducted in two distinct geographical settings in northern Bangladesh: <em>Charland</em> (river island) and Mainland, without flood embankment protection. The findings reveal that FbF cash assistance primarily aided rural women in reducing the financial vulnerability of their households. Spending the cash assistance on buying food and boat evacuation directly benefits women and men alike and reduces the need for taking loans. However, no spending was made on women's personal utility and safety needs before, during, and after the flood. <em>Charland</em> and Mainland females faced barriers to basic utility and hygiene services, with <em>Charland</em> women faring slightly better. Our findings suggest that existing rural socio-cultural norms, cash disbursement timing, and other factors influenced women's cash aid anticipatory action choices, and the humanitarian actors and recipients should coordinate to improve the situation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"24 ","pages":"Article 100389"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142746996","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate change increased risk of forest fire, winter storm and technical failure risks related to power transmission lines – a spatial GIS risk assessment at Cologne district, Germany","authors":"Alexander Fekete ,&nbsp;Udo Nehren","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100387","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100387","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In Central Europe, climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme events and weather variability. We need to better understand the interrelations between natural hazards and related extreme events and their impacts on gray, blue, and green infrastructures. According to literature research, a broad spectrum of hazard impacts can lead to transmission line and tower failures in Germany. A spatial assessment in a case study area in western Germany, using a geographic information system reveals the spatial exposure of forests, settlements, roads, rail, and waterways to transmission line failure. The main purpose of this study is to map this spatial exposure risk. In some districts, there is a higher risk of forest fires ignited by dropping transmission lines and impacts of winter storms or earthquakes.</div><div>The result indicates that better integration of climate change and other natural, technical, and man-made hazards is required and needs to be researched. We also need to better understand the linkages with critical infrastructure, such as emergency management, and the different cascades of impact on primary, secondary, and tertiary infrastructure.</div><div>The findings can inform fellow scientists, planners, and practitioners on better capturing and applying interconnected risks through spatial assessments. Moreover, the results can also inform operators and emergency managers on preparing for rare and unexpected risks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"24 ","pages":"Article 100387"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142698317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Elucidating ever-changing information needs for the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake using web search queries","authors":"Akira Kodaka ,&nbsp;Akihiko Nishino ,&nbsp;Takashi Kanno ,&nbsp;Kaya Onda ,&nbsp;Kota Tsubouchi ,&nbsp;Shingo Suzuki ,&nbsp;Shuji Yamaguchi ,&nbsp;Naohiko Kohtake","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100386","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100386","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Noto Peninsula Earthquake that occurred on January 1, 2024, caused significant damage to the Noto Peninsula and surrounding areas. This study aims to contribute to evidence-based disaster response by identifying the information needs of the affected areas through a data-driven approach using web search queries. Specifically, the study focuses on the Oku-Noto region in Ishikawa Prefecture, which includes Wajima City, Suzu City, Anamizu Town, and Noto Town. By assigning anomaly scores to web search queries and applying statistical processing such as standardized scores, kurtosis, and skewness, this study elucidates the patterns of changes in information needs in the affected areas. From January 1, 2024, to June 23, 2024, a total of 15,107 search queries were extracted based on anomaly scoring, and 4790 queries were obtained after filtering out irrelevant data. These search queries were classified into five categories: “Hazard and Situation,” “Transportation,” “Critical Infrastructure,” “Coping and Recovery,” and “Daily Life.” The analysis revealed two distinct periods—around 10 days and one month after the disaster—where significant changes in the nature of information needs were observed. Furthermore, information needs related to “Transportation,” particularly road and traffic information, were relatively high, with a notable emphasis on the Noto Satoyama Kaido and Kanazawa Station.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"24 ","pages":"Article 100386"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142698316","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fire risk vulnerability and safety assessment of Farmgate area using fire risk index, Dhaka City and optimization of fire hydrant placement","authors":"Asim Abrar,&nbsp;A.S.M. Maksud Kamal,&nbsp;Abul Kashem Faruki Fahim","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100384","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100384","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This research addresses fire safety and assesses the vulnerability to fire hazards in the Farmgate area of Dhaka city employing Fire Risk Index (FRI) methodology. 16 key factors were identified from a comprehensive field survey for each building undergoing rigorous analysis for calculation of FRI value through weighting and scoring of each factor. The FRI values are divided into 5 grades of very high, high, moderate, low, and very low with a higher FRI value indicating better fire safety. The data analysis indicates that among all structures, 0.59 % exhibited a very high FRI, 5.35 % showed a high FRI, 17.24 % displayed a moderate FRI, 48.89 % had a low FRI, and 27.93 % had a very low FRI. Geographic Information System (GIS) tools were employed to spatially to optimize fire hydrant placement using data integration and strategic analysis in high-risk areas. By ensuring efficient resource utilization, this research aims to implement fire prevention approaches and serve as a foundational resource for stakeholders, including landowners, residents, and policymakers, to fortify risk awareness and improve overall fire safety protocols. Ultimately, this research aims to foster resilient urban environments, improving disaster preparedness not only in Dhaka but also in similar high-risk areas worldwide.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"24 ","pages":"Article 100384"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142593353","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Small-grid urban flood prediction model using Twitter data and population GPS data - an example of the 2019 Nagano city flood","authors":"Yifan Yang,&nbsp;Naoki Ohira,&nbsp;Hideomi Gokon","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100385","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100385","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study, a small-grid urban flood prediction model integrating Twitter data and population GPS data was constructed using the 2019 Nagano City flood as an example, and the validity of these two data for the model was determined. Using natural language processing techniques, Twitter data was filtered to extract real-time information relevant to flooding. At the same time, geographic information processing techniques were applied to analyze the population GPS data and obtain the distribution of the local population. Based on these two types of data, we combined with terrain, land use, traffic and infrastructure data related to flooding, a real-time flood prediction model was constructed using the random forest algorithm with a basic unit of a 70 m × 70 m grid. An analysis of the model accuracy showed that, the model that included both GPS and Twitter data showed an improvement in prediction accuracy of about 8% compared to flood prediction models that do not have these data sources. This indicated that the integrated use of Twitter and GPS data allowed us for a more accurate representation of the dynamic characteristics of flood disasters, thereby improving the performance of real-time flood prediction models and increasing real-time awareness of flood events. This approach provided effective flood monitoring methods for disaster management authorities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"24 ","pages":"Article 100385"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142656724","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Improving community understanding of cascading effects of critical infrastructure service failure: An experimental interactive learning process","authors":"Deepshikha Purwar,&nbsp;Johannes Flacke,&nbsp;Richard Sliuzas","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100383","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100383","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Effective disaster preparedness relies on the community's understanding of hazards and risks, emphasizing the need to address cascading effects from critical infrastructure failures due to natural hazards. Understanding cascading effects in communities facing multiple hazards is crucial due to the increasing complexity of critical infrastructure (CI) services. Limited awareness can amplify vulnerabilities and socioeconomic losses, and thus capacity building at the community level is essential for reducing hazard risks. This study utilized an interactive learning process (ILP), a participatory approach to engage the community in sharing experiences and building coping capacity for cascading effects. ILP was facilitated through facilitator-learner interaction and participatory exercises, aided by visualisation tools that enriched the learning experience of participants. The use of visualisation tools in ILP simplified comprehension of intricate interdependencies, helping participants to brainstorm and think critically to explore potential solutions. We explore the effectiveness of three visualisation tools that support the ILPs in improving community understanding of the cascading effects. Through experimentation and comparison, insights are gained into how learners engage with different ILPs and their impact on overall learning outcomes. The study concluded by selecting the visualisation tool supporting ILP that was effective in fostering engagement, improving understanding, and promoting knowledge retention.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"24 ","pages":"Article 100383"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142561340","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate-induced coastal occupational vulnerability and livelihood insecurity: Insights from coastal Bangladesh","authors":"Monishankar Sarkar ,&nbsp;Subrata Paul ,&nbsp;Joydeb Garai","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100382","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100382","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The livelihoods of the fishing communities residing in the geographically vulnerable coastal zone are constantly threatened by escalating coastal disasters. The communities face persistent challenges, including livelihood failure, poverty, high exposure and sensitivity, and lower adaptive capacity, yet little attention has been paid to comprehending their multifaceted livelihood vulnerabilities amid climate-induced disasters. This study bridges that gap by employing several techniques to address the challenge. It adopts a mixed-method analysis and investigates the Livelihood Assessment Index (LAI), Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI), and Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) to assess the livelihood vulnerability of fishing communities residing in the new and old fishery ghats (riverside locations where fishing-related activities take place) in Chattogram district in southern Bangladesh. Findings reveal that the fishing communities experience higher exposure levels and moderate vulnerability in the face of escalating climate-induced disasters. The overall LAI indicates a relatively low level of livelihood satisfaction, suggesting potential challenges or deficiencies in aspects contributing to well-being. Despite socioeconomic and demographic similarities, as LVI values present, the exposure varies between the two study locations. Both locations are characterized by moderate sensitivity, while the new fishery ghat showed slightly higher adaptive capacity, contributing to greater resilience. The CVI values indicated higher vulnerability for the new fishery ghat fishing community, suggesting increased challenges related to climate-induced threats, and the old ghat community exhibited lower vulnerability, showcasing better resilience to disasters. Factors influencing livelihood vulnerability include limited access to education and healthcare in the new fishery ghat, while the old fishery ghat benefits from better provisions, communication, and social networks. The study advocates for context-specific decision-making and targeted interventions to support vulnerable fishing communities in coastal zones globally, emphasizing the need for improved social safety nets and alternative livelihood options. Addressing these occupational vulnerabilities is crucial for long-term development in climate-risk countries like Bangladesh.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"24 ","pages":"Article 100382"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142578221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Morphological changes of river Bank Erosion and channel shifting assessment on Arial Khan River of Bangladesh using Landsat satellite time series images","authors":"Irteja Hasan,&nbsp;Joyjit Dey,&nbsp;Md. Mustafizur Rahman Munna,&nbsp;Afiadeal Preya,&nbsp;Tahrin Bhuiyan Nisanur,&nbsp;Munira Jaman Memy,&nbsp;Mst. Zihan Shazia Zeba","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100381","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100381","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The continuous processes of erosion and deposition in rivers are intricately linked to changes in land use and land cover (LULC), reflecting dynamic landscape transformations. This study investigates the rate of riverbank erosion, channel shifting, and the impact of erosion on LULC dynamics along the Arial Khan River. Utilizing GIS and remote sensing techniques, we analyzed time-series satellite images from 1993 to 2024 within a 2 km buffer zone of the floodplain. Supervised classification methods were applied for LULC analysis, with results validated using confusion matrices to assess classification accuracy. ArcGIS 10.8 was employed to analyze channel centerline migration, while NDVI analysis assessed vegetation health. The study reveals that between 1993 and 2024, 5142.60 ha were lost to erosion, while deposition affected 4756.52 ha, with erosion surpassing deposition overall. The river shifted an average of 0.66 km during this period, with higher migration rates in Muladi Upazila compared to Babuganj Upazila. Settlement areas expanded significantly from 137.82 ha in 1993 to 2768.68 ha in 2024, while agricultural land declined substantially. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers to address erosion severity in confluence zones and lay the groundwork for sustainable land management practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"24 ","pages":"Article 100381"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142532457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Meteorological conditions and behavioral spatial cognition: A critical review for decision-making amid environmental risk","authors":"Gregory J. DeGirolamo ,&nbsp;Curtis L. Walker","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100380","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100380","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Human visuospatial cognition plays a critical role in risk perception and resultant decision-making. In the context of hazardous meteorological conditions, risk communication aspiring to encourage desired protective action decision-making from the public must consider these cognitive factors. For messages encouraging protective action, the audience must receive, understand, and internalize the message before acting. Spatial processing of information may impact a person's understanding and is a precursor to taking protective action. This study proposes a critical assessment of relevant cognitive behavior literature into a synthesis with implications for hazardous weather risk communication. Socioeconomic and other demographic factors (e.g., education, social status, income) have a strong influence on risk perception and resultant behavior. For example, lower economic status individuals may perceive a lower risk when confronted with a particular situation relative to those with higher economic status and be more apt to take higher risks if the potential loss of income was perceived as a worse outcome for themselves individually. Additionally, previous research found age and other demographic-related differences (e.g., gender) in how people remember information when presented in a map-like versus first-person/ground-level perspective. Younger adults use a coordinate processing strategy while older adults use a categorical processing strategy. Both groups had a similar level of accuracy in recall; however, older adults were less accurate when recalling information from first-person perspective layouts. This suggests individual differences in how information presented on maps is processed (e.g., forecasts, hazardous weather alerts) compared to personal perception of the weather when it is experienced. Perceptual differences could result in increased public exposure to dangerous conditions otherwise believed, or perceived, to be safe.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"24 ","pages":"Article 100380"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142441670","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Expert perspectives on disaster risk reduction strategies in the tourist area of Borobudur-Yogyakarta-Prambanan in Indonesia","authors":"Erda Rindrasih,&nbsp;Ratminto,&nbsp;Kurnia Cahyaningrum Effendi,&nbsp;Dian Silviani","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100379","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100379","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tourism plays a crucial role in the economic growth of many countries. However, tourist destinations located in disaster-prone areas face increased vulnerability in the event of natural disasters. It is essential for these areas to have specific interventions, plans, and policies that focus on reducing disaster risk, while ensuring the safety of residents and tourists. This study proposes strategies for minimizing disaster risk using Indonesia's Borobudur-Yogyakarta-Prambanan (BYP) region as a case study. The study used an Analytical Hierarchial Process in a Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats (SWOT-AHP) analysis to prioritize factors through pairwise comparisons and develop strategic alternatives based on expert perspectives. Primary data were collected through aSWOT-AHP questionnaire that was provided to 22 experts in tourism and disaster management in Central Java and Yogyakarta Special Provinces. Secondary data were obtained from government documents, specifically the Disaster Risk Reduction Plan for the BYP regions (2023–2027). The results indicate that “implementing land-use policies to promote tourism development while considering disasters” is the most important strategy, based on expert judgment. The BYP tourist destinations provided a case study to identify strategies to reduce disaster risk in tourism areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"24 ","pages":"Article 100379"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142531926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}