Progress in Disaster Science最新文献

{"title":"Fire risk vulnerability and safety assessment of Farmgate area using fire risk index, Dhaka City and optimization of fire hydrant placement","authors":"Asim Abrar,&nbsp;A.S.M. Maksud Kamal,&nbsp;Abul Kashem Faruki Fahim","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100384","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100384","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This research addresses fire safety and assesses the vulnerability to fire hazards in the Farmgate area of Dhaka city employing Fire Risk Index (FRI) methodology. 16 key factors were identified from a comprehensive field survey for each building undergoing rigorous analysis for calculation of FRI value through weighting and scoring of each factor. The FRI values are divided into 5 grades of very high, high, moderate, low, and very low with a higher FRI value indicating better fire safety. The data analysis indicates that among all structures, 0.59 % exhibited a very high FRI, 5.35 % showed a high FRI, 17.24 % displayed a moderate FRI, 48.89 % had a low FRI, and 27.93 % had a very low FRI. Geographic Information System (GIS) tools were employed to spatially to optimize fire hydrant placement using data integration and strategic analysis in high-risk areas. By ensuring efficient resource utilization, this research aims to implement fire prevention approaches and serve as a foundational resource for stakeholders, including landowners, residents, and policymakers, to fortify risk awareness and improve overall fire safety protocols. Ultimately, this research aims to foster resilient urban environments, improving disaster preparedness not only in Dhaka but also in similar high-risk areas worldwide.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"24 ","pages":"Article 100384"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142593353","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Small-grid urban flood prediction model using Twitter data and population GPS data - an example of the 2019 Nagano city flood","authors":"Yifan Yang,&nbsp;Naoki Ohira,&nbsp;Hideomi Gokon","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100385","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100385","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study, a small-grid urban flood prediction model integrating Twitter data and population GPS data was constructed using the 2019 Nagano City flood as an example, and the validity of these two data for the model was determined. Using natural language processing techniques, Twitter data was filtered to extract real-time information relevant to flooding. At the same time, geographic information processing techniques were applied to analyze the population GPS data and obtain the distribution of the local population. Based on these two types of data, we combined with terrain, land use, traffic and infrastructure data related to flooding, a real-time flood prediction model was constructed using the random forest algorithm with a basic unit of a 70 m × 70 m grid. An analysis of the model accuracy showed that, the model that included both GPS and Twitter data showed an improvement in prediction accuracy of about 8% compared to flood prediction models that do not have these data sources. This indicated that the integrated use of Twitter and GPS data allowed us for a more accurate representation of the dynamic characteristics of flood disasters, thereby improving the performance of real-time flood prediction models and increasing real-time awareness of flood events. This approach provided effective flood monitoring methods for disaster management authorities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"24 ","pages":"Article 100385"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142656724","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Improving community understanding of cascading effects of critical infrastructure service failure: An experimental interactive learning process","authors":"Deepshikha Purwar,&nbsp;Johannes Flacke,&nbsp;Richard Sliuzas","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100383","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100383","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Effective disaster preparedness relies on the community's understanding of hazards and risks, emphasizing the need to address cascading effects from critical infrastructure failures due to natural hazards. Understanding cascading effects in communities facing multiple hazards is crucial due to the increasing complexity of critical infrastructure (CI) services. Limited awareness can amplify vulnerabilities and socioeconomic losses, and thus capacity building at the community level is essential for reducing hazard risks. This study utilized an interactive learning process (ILP), a participatory approach to engage the community in sharing experiences and building coping capacity for cascading effects. ILP was facilitated through facilitator-learner interaction and participatory exercises, aided by visualisation tools that enriched the learning experience of participants. The use of visualisation tools in ILP simplified comprehension of intricate interdependencies, helping participants to brainstorm and think critically to explore potential solutions. We explore the effectiveness of three visualisation tools that support the ILPs in improving community understanding of the cascading effects. Through experimentation and comparison, insights are gained into how learners engage with different ILPs and their impact on overall learning outcomes. The study concluded by selecting the visualisation tool supporting ILP that was effective in fostering engagement, improving understanding, and promoting knowledge retention.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"24 ","pages":"Article 100383"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142561340","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate-induced coastal occupational vulnerability and livelihood insecurity: Insights from coastal Bangladesh","authors":"Monishankar Sarkar ,&nbsp;Subrata Paul ,&nbsp;Joydeb Garai","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100382","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100382","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The livelihoods of the fishing communities residing in the geographically vulnerable coastal zone are constantly threatened by escalating coastal disasters. The communities face persistent challenges, including livelihood failure, poverty, high exposure and sensitivity, and lower adaptive capacity, yet little attention has been paid to comprehending their multifaceted livelihood vulnerabilities amid climate-induced disasters. This study bridges that gap by employing several techniques to address the challenge. It adopts a mixed-method analysis and investigates the Livelihood Assessment Index (LAI), Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI), and Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) to assess the livelihood vulnerability of fishing communities residing in the new and old fishery ghats (riverside locations where fishing-related activities take place) in Chattogram district in southern Bangladesh. Findings reveal that the fishing communities experience higher exposure levels and moderate vulnerability in the face of escalating climate-induced disasters. The overall LAI indicates a relatively low level of livelihood satisfaction, suggesting potential challenges or deficiencies in aspects contributing to well-being. Despite socioeconomic and demographic similarities, as LVI values present, the exposure varies between the two study locations. Both locations are characterized by moderate sensitivity, while the new fishery ghat showed slightly higher adaptive capacity, contributing to greater resilience. The CVI values indicated higher vulnerability for the new fishery ghat fishing community, suggesting increased challenges related to climate-induced threats, and the old ghat community exhibited lower vulnerability, showcasing better resilience to disasters. Factors influencing livelihood vulnerability include limited access to education and healthcare in the new fishery ghat, while the old fishery ghat benefits from better provisions, communication, and social networks. The study advocates for context-specific decision-making and targeted interventions to support vulnerable fishing communities in coastal zones globally, emphasizing the need for improved social safety nets and alternative livelihood options. Addressing these occupational vulnerabilities is crucial for long-term development in climate-risk countries like Bangladesh.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"24 ","pages":"Article 100382"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142578221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Morphological changes of river Bank Erosion and channel shifting assessment on Arial Khan River of Bangladesh using Landsat satellite time series images","authors":"Irteja Hasan,&nbsp;Joyjit Dey,&nbsp;Md. Mustafizur Rahman Munna,&nbsp;Afiadeal Preya,&nbsp;Tahrin Bhuiyan Nisanur,&nbsp;Munira Jaman Memy,&nbsp;Mst. Zihan Shazia Zeba","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100381","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100381","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The continuous processes of erosion and deposition in rivers are intricately linked to changes in land use and land cover (LULC), reflecting dynamic landscape transformations. This study investigates the rate of riverbank erosion, channel shifting, and the impact of erosion on LULC dynamics along the Arial Khan River. Utilizing GIS and remote sensing techniques, we analyzed time-series satellite images from 1993 to 2024 within a 2 km buffer zone of the floodplain. Supervised classification methods were applied for LULC analysis, with results validated using confusion matrices to assess classification accuracy. ArcGIS 10.8 was employed to analyze channel centerline migration, while NDVI analysis assessed vegetation health. The study reveals that between 1993 and 2024, 5142.60 ha were lost to erosion, while deposition affected 4756.52 ha, with erosion surpassing deposition overall. The river shifted an average of 0.66 km during this period, with higher migration rates in Muladi Upazila compared to Babuganj Upazila. Settlement areas expanded significantly from 137.82 ha in 1993 to 2768.68 ha in 2024, while agricultural land declined substantially. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers to address erosion severity in confluence zones and lay the groundwork for sustainable land management practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"24 ","pages":"Article 100381"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142532457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Meteorological conditions and behavioral spatial cognition: A critical review for decision-making amid environmental risk","authors":"Gregory J. DeGirolamo ,&nbsp;Curtis L. Walker","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100380","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100380","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Human visuospatial cognition plays a critical role in risk perception and resultant decision-making. In the context of hazardous meteorological conditions, risk communication aspiring to encourage desired protective action decision-making from the public must consider these cognitive factors. For messages encouraging protective action, the audience must receive, understand, and internalize the message before acting. Spatial processing of information may impact a person's understanding and is a precursor to taking protective action. This study proposes a critical assessment of relevant cognitive behavior literature into a synthesis with implications for hazardous weather risk communication. Socioeconomic and other demographic factors (e.g., education, social status, income) have a strong influence on risk perception and resultant behavior. For example, lower economic status individuals may perceive a lower risk when confronted with a particular situation relative to those with higher economic status and be more apt to take higher risks if the potential loss of income was perceived as a worse outcome for themselves individually. Additionally, previous research found age and other demographic-related differences (e.g., gender) in how people remember information when presented in a map-like versus first-person/ground-level perspective. Younger adults use a coordinate processing strategy while older adults use a categorical processing strategy. Both groups had a similar level of accuracy in recall; however, older adults were less accurate when recalling information from first-person perspective layouts. This suggests individual differences in how information presented on maps is processed (e.g., forecasts, hazardous weather alerts) compared to personal perception of the weather when it is experienced. Perceptual differences could result in increased public exposure to dangerous conditions otherwise believed, or perceived, to be safe.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"24 ","pages":"Article 100380"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142441670","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Expert perspectives on disaster risk reduction strategies in the tourist area of Borobudur-Yogyakarta-Prambanan in Indonesia","authors":"Erda Rindrasih,&nbsp;Ratminto,&nbsp;Kurnia Cahyaningrum Effendi,&nbsp;Dian Silviani","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100379","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100379","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tourism plays a crucial role in the economic growth of many countries. However, tourist destinations located in disaster-prone areas face increased vulnerability in the event of natural disasters. It is essential for these areas to have specific interventions, plans, and policies that focus on reducing disaster risk, while ensuring the safety of residents and tourists. This study proposes strategies for minimizing disaster risk using Indonesia's Borobudur-Yogyakarta-Prambanan (BYP) region as a case study. The study used an Analytical Hierarchial Process in a Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats (SWOT-AHP) analysis to prioritize factors through pairwise comparisons and develop strategic alternatives based on expert perspectives. Primary data were collected through aSWOT-AHP questionnaire that was provided to 22 experts in tourism and disaster management in Central Java and Yogyakarta Special Provinces. Secondary data were obtained from government documents, specifically the Disaster Risk Reduction Plan for the BYP regions (2023–2027). The results indicate that “implementing land-use policies to promote tourism development while considering disasters” is the most important strategy, based on expert judgment. The BYP tourist destinations provided a case study to identify strategies to reduce disaster risk in tourism areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"24 ","pages":"Article 100379"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142531926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The shelter recovery trajectory of typhoon Yolanda survivors: A critical synthesis review","authors":"Iftekhar Ahmed ,&nbsp;Shelley Tuazon Guyton","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100378","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100378","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) struck the Philippines in 2013 and devastated more than a million houses. To address the devastation, the government and humanitarian agencies undertook a variety of shelter recovery programs. However, there are reports that a large number of people were not supported for their shelter recovery, so questions arise regarding to what extent they managed to recover. The conceptual framework of this paper is framed by two related discourses – the vulnerability paradigm and a pro-poor policy agenda – relevant in the Global South context of the Philippines. The reason for focusing on shelter is because that is the sector which often experiences maximum impact in disasters, as was the case in Yolanda. Shelter recovery is a protracted process, and agencies usually engage over the short term, which is why this paper laid the foundation for future empirical investigations on the conditions on the ground now. There are many challenges in the recovery process, complicated by the government's restrictions on rebuilding near the coast, where nonetheless people built informal settlements to pursue their coastal livelihoods, and are hence vulnerable to future typhoons. Drawbacks of the shelter interventions are explored in relation to poverty, participation, self-recovery, land tenure, urban and rural differences, post-Yolanda cost escalation and links to Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH). It is recommended that people should be supported to build disaster-resilient and durable shelter, drawing on their social capital.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"24 ","pages":"Article 100378"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142433335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The socio-economic impacts of the COVID-19 mitigation measures and vulnerabilities in Singapore","authors":"Patrick Daly ,&nbsp;Amin Shoari Nejad ,&nbsp;Katarina Domijan ,&nbsp;Jamie W. McCaughey ,&nbsp;Caroline Brassard ,&nbsp;Laavanya Kathiravelu ,&nbsp;Mateus Marques ,&nbsp;Danilo Sarti ,&nbsp;Andrew C. Parnell ,&nbsp;Benjamin Horton","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100377","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100377","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Starting in early 2020, countries around the world imposed mitigation measures to reduce transmission of COVID-19 including social distancing; closing public transport, schools, and non-essential businesses; enhanced hygiene; face masks; temperature monitoring; quarantining; and contact tracing. These mitigation measures helped reduce loss of life, but also disrupted the lives of billions of people. Here we assess whether mitigation measures used to manage a disaster can also have negative impacts that disproportionately burden vulnerable sub-sets of a population. We use data from a survey of Singaporean citizens and permanent residents during the lockdown period between April and July 2020 to evaluate the social and economic impacts of Singapore's COVID-19 mitigation measures. Our results show that over 60 % of the population experienced negative impacts on their social lives and 40 % on household economics. Bayesian Hierarchical Logistic Regress reveals that the negative economic impacts of the mitigation measures were partly influenced by socio-economic and demographic factors that align with underlying societal vulnerabilities. Our findings suggest that when dealing with large-scale crisis' such as COVID-19, slow-onset disasters, and climate change, some of the burdens of mitigation measure can constitute a crisis in their own right which could disproportionately impact vulnerable segments of the population.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"24 ","pages":"Article 100377"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142532458","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Enhancing gender-responsive resilience: The critical role of women in disaster risk reduction in Oman","authors":"Suliman Abdalla ,&nbsp;Elnazir Ramadan ,&nbsp;Wafa Al Mamari","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100376","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100376","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Successful disaster risk reduction (DRR) and preparedness require the active participation of all genders and age groups. However, gender roles and relations are often overlooked in disaster management. This study explores the critical role of women in enhancing gender-responsive resilience within DRR in Oman. It highlights existing gender disparities in DRR strategies and emphasizes the need for inclusive policies that leverage women's knowledge, leadership, and adaptive capacities. By examining Oman's experience with natural disasters (cyclones) and COVID-19, the research underscores the importance of integrating gender perspectives in DRR for more effective outcomes. Utilizing a quantitative survey and statistical analysis, the study investigates variables shaping women's participation in DRR, including knowledge, communication, experience, social protection, and voluntarism. Findings demonstrate the crucial role of women in enhancing disaster resilience and their potential in mitigating disaster risks effectively. Policy recommendations advocate for empowering women and promoting their active participation in DRR to strengthen community resilience and contribute to broader socio-economic development goals in Oman. This study calls on policymakers, practitioners, and stakeholders to support the pivotal role of women in building resilient societies and to adopt a more equitable approach to disaster management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"24 ","pages":"Article 100376"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142421984","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}