Progress in Disaster Science最新文献

{"title":"Effects of uncertainty and affective content on large language models' disaster assessment: A controlled comparison using synthetic disaster data","authors":"Idan-Chaim Cohen ,&nbsp;Noya Littor ,&nbsp;Aviad Elyashar ,&nbsp;Odeya Cohen ,&nbsp;Rami Puzis","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100571","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100571","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into disaster management systems, yet the extent to which data properties, such as uncertainty and affective content, systematically influence LLM-based disaster analyses remains underexplored. We conducted three experiments using synthetic scenarios across three disaster types (earthquake, wildfire, chemical incident), testing eight LLMs on 26,400 assessment tasks. Synthetic materials were developed to prevent test set contamination from exposure to training data. Experiment 1 investigated how data certainty affects severity assessment using operational reports describing the same event at varying certainty levels. Experiments 2 and 3 used matched pairs of social media contents with equivalent factual content but varying affective content, assessing the extent to which affective content influences severity ratings and resource prioritization. On average, data uncertainty and affective content were associated with elevated severity ratings, while the latter was also associated with prioritization of psychological support. These effects were generally consistent in direction across different disaster types, although the magnitudes of the effects varied. Instructions to ignore or consider emotional language changed the LLMs' behaviors in the expected direction, with signs of over-correction in some models. Effect sizes varied substantially across models, up to 21-fold differences in Experiment 1, precluding the use of uniform calibration approaches. These findings indicate that LLM disaster analyses are systematically shifted by data properties that may lack operational relevance. Developers and users of LLM-based disaster management systems should account for these biases and their variation across models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100571"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147749814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mapping disaster risk reduction studies and their regional importance","authors":"Concepta McManus ,&nbsp;Timothy Finan ,&nbsp;Vinícius Silva Junqueira ,&nbsp;Felipe Pimentel ,&nbsp;Erica Akemi Goto ,&nbsp;Sonia Delphin ,&nbsp;Corrie Hannah","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100587","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100587","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Disaster risk reduction (DRR) is key for mitigating the socio-economic impacts of natural hazards, particularly in the Global South, where vulnerable populations face heightened risks due to limited adaptive capacity and economic instability. This study provides a global and regional bibliometric analysis of DRR scholarship by examining 77,061 peer-reviewed publications and focusing on 10,681 highly cited peer-reviewed articles published between 2004 and 2024. We use an integrated science-mapping approach with tools such as VOSviewer, SciVal, biblioshiny in R, and Overton to assess the evolution of DRR research themes, collaboration networks, citation performance, and policy uptake. Results show a 4800% growth in publications. While Asia leads in output, Oceania and South America exhibit higher field-weighted citation impacts, with South America achieving a strong per-paper influence. More than 54% of the DRR research are cited in policy documents, which have informed over 5000 policy outputs worldwide. However, policy uptake is concentrated in higher income countries, with limited use in lower- and middle-income countries where disaster exposure is often greater. These findings highlight regional diversity in research priorities, persistent geographic and income-based asymmetries in disaster risk science, and the growing importance of interdisciplinary collaboration and policy engagement in advancing effective, context-specific DRR strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100587"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147849767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An updated hierarchical Bayesian framework for earthquake fatality estimation","authors":"Davis Engler ,&nbsp;Kishor Jaiswal ,&nbsp;Mahadevan Ganesh","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100574","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100574","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We present a framework for accurately forecasting a class of nondecreasing temporal count processes with a finite limit. Specifically, we apply this framework to rapidly estimate total earthquake-induced fatalities. We model trends in successive reported fatality counts by public media within the first hours and days after a major earthquake, using an updated Bayesian framework to forecast the likely final count. This work extends previous research with several key improvements: (1) Addressing past earthquake fatality trends that deviated significantly from the previous framework's assumptions; (2) Leveraging reported fatality data from past earthquakes to improve projections for new events; and (3) Optimizing and scaling the observed data's influence to enhance estimates and associated uncertainty. We demonstrate the predictive capabilities of this high- dimensional framework by comparing its performance to its predecessor across several past deadly earthquakes, including the 2023 M 7.8 Türkiye/Syria earthquake sequence. We show that the proposed high-dimensional updating framework improves forecasting and significantly reduces overall uncertainties compared to PAGER's initial estimates.</div><div>MSC 2010 subject classifications:</div><div>Primary 60K35, 60K35; secondary 60K35.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100574"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147849770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate Change Impacts on Water Security in Ethiopia: A systematic Review of Hydroclimatic Trends, Resilience Strategies, and Governance in Major River Basins","authors":"Abebe M. Legass ,&nbsp;Tena Alamirew ,&nbsp;Solomon G. Gebrehiwot ,&nbsp;David Haro-Monteagudo ,&nbsp;Lewoye Tsegaye","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100562","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100562","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This systematic review synthesizes 50 studies (2009–2025) examining climate change impacts on water security across Ethiopia's Abbay (Blue Nile), Awash, Omo-Gibe, and Rift Valley Lakes basins. Following PRISMA 2020 guidelines with dual-independent screening and thematic synthesis, we harmonized heterogeneous projections from diverse climate models and scenarios to enable robust cross-study comparison. Findings reveal a dominant mid- to end-century drying signal under high-emission pathways, driven by temperature-induced evapotranspiration exceeding precipitation changes. Projected impacts exhibit pronounced basin-specificity: Rift Valley Lakes shows groundwater recharge declines of 47–53% and water yield reductions of 48% by 2080s (RCP8.5); Awash shows mean annual flow reductions of 10–29% by 2050s. Abbay and Omo-Gibe exhibit scenario-dependence: under moderate pathways, Abbay shows potential flow increases of 10–25% by 2080s, while under high emissions water yield contracts by 22.7%. The review's central contribution is a basin-specific governance diagnosis: the gap between policy ideals and operational realities manifests as an enforcement deficit in Awash (&gt;70% unlicensed abstractions), transboundary coordination void in Abbay, sectoral capture in Omo-Gibe, and regulatory drift in Rift Valley Lakes (&lt;40% permit compliance). These findings demonstrate that hydrological outcomes are mediated by institutional design. Strengthening basin authorities through targeted investments enforcement capacity, transboundary benefit-sharing, multi-sector oversight, and compliance protocols can mitigate risks. These insights are transferable to other water-stressed regions facing similar challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100562"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147602140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reconceptualizing community-based disaster risk management: From external-led projects to community-centered resilience building through a systematic review","authors":"Aradhna Moktan ,&nbsp;Sharmistha Banerjee ,&nbsp;Anamika Barua","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100569","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100569","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite recognition of Community-Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM) as essential for building resilience, protecting development gains, and reducing poverty in disaster-prone regions, a fundamental paradox persists: CBDRM initiatives mostly remain externally-driven projects, led by external agencies, implemented top-down with varying degrees of community involvement that cease after funding ends, failing to address the structural vulnerabilities that perpetuate poverty and inequality. This systematic review analyzed 33 peer-reviewed CBDRM cases (2005–2024) from Asia, the Americas, and Australia to examine: (1) how CBDRM has been applied across contexts; (2) the roles and power dynamics among stakeholders; (3) benefits and limitations for vulnerable populations; and (4) contributions to sustainable development outcomes. Through thematic and co-occurrence analysis, we identified four interconnected pillars of effective CBDRM: community networking, policy frameworks, participatory approaches, and local/indigenous knowledge integration. Our findings suggest that community-centered initiatives demonstrating bottom-up approaches and self-reliance tend to exhibit greater sustainability and resilience compared to purely top-down implementations, which typically cease after project completion. However, successful implementation requires balancing community autonomy with external support while explicitly targeting structural inequalities. We propose the ‘Resilient CBDRM Framework’ that reconceptualizes the traditional donor-recipient relationship, positioning communities as primary development actors within a tiered support system. This framework offers practical guidance for development practitioners, policymakers, and communities to transform CBDRM from short-term, dependency-creating projects into sustainable mechanisms for poverty reduction, democratic participation, and inclusive development. Our findings suggest that effective disaster risk management requires addressing the root causes of vulnerability poverty, inequality, and powerlessness rather than merely managing hazard exposure.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100569"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147657202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Resilient infrastructure planning in refugee and internally displaced person settlements: A systematic review of scholarly and grey literature","authors":"Josue Godwe Gnowa ,&nbsp;Jasper Verschuur ,&nbsp;Tina Comes","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100575","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100575","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Refugee and internally displaced persons (IDPs) settlements are increasingly exposed to shocks such as rapid population influxes and extreme weather events, yet infrastructure planning in these contexts remains largely focused on static, reactive responses, often overlooking resilience. This study examines how resilience is conceptualized in infrastructure planning for refugee and IDP settlements and identifies the key constraints to its enhancement. To address this, we conduct a systematic literature review of scholarly (<em>n</em> = 75) and grey literature (<em>n</em> = 30), including only studies focused on infrastructure planning in refugee or IDP settlements. The selected studies are analyzed using a framework that categorizes them by infrastructure sectors, resilience dimensions, and constraints.</div><div>The findings reveal an uneven focus across infrastructure sectors, with shelter, energy, and WASH dominating the literature. Resilience in the scholarly literature is primarily conceptualized through robustness, adaptability, and transformability, with limited integration of preparedness and recovery, and these dimensions are rarely addressed holistically. Furthermore, resilience is constrained by interrelated factors, like resource limitations, weak coordination among actors, land ownership, and institutional constraints.</div><div>These results highlight the need for integrated, cross-sectoral planning approaches that incorporate underexplored infrastructure sectors, address underemphasized resilience dimensions, and embed refugee and IDP settlements within host countries' regional planning frameworks to alleviate constraints to resilience enhancement.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100575"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147749813","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Urban morphology and risk resilience – Bibliographic analysis and review","authors":"Iva Mrak ,&nbsp;Martina Šopić ,&nbsp;Ivan Marović","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100564","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100564","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Although urban morphology has a long tradition, only recently has its interrelation with the risk and resilience of urbanised communities gained greater prominence. The aim of this paper is to present the framework, current state of the art, and approaches to these topics by addressing the following research questions: Which research areas address urban morphology and risk resilience? What topics are related to urban morphology and risk resilience, and what general overlaps or gaps exist? What are the approaches to urban morphology and to risk resilience? Do these topics correlate with the UN SDGs and the Sendai FDDR? The research finds that this is a topic of growing interest, with many interconnected and overlapping topics and related to various scientific fields. It identifies two distinct groups of papers based on their methodological approaches and tools. It identifies several core contradictions: sectoral approaches versus the complexity of reality; narrative versus analytical approaches; frictions arising from differing needs related to various morphologies; and overlaps and gaps in topics and connections to the UN SDGs and Sendai FDDR. The research highlights the need to shift toward high-tech analytical and generative tools based on improved spatial data, adopt multirisk rather than single-sector scenarios, move from narrative to analytical and actionable social resilience research, and prioritize adaptive redundancy over minimal functionality, thereby creating spaces with adaptive morphologies. It also demonstrates how urban form affects the risk and resilience of urbanised areas and different populations providing a basis for policy-related research and implementation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100564"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147602141","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Long-term prediction of floods with a TSVD-LSTM based on the century-scale rainfall data: A case study on Kerala, India","authors":"P.M. Nasiya,&nbsp;Prathilothamai M.","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100584","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100584","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Floods are among the most destructive natural disasters because they create life-threatening conditions and damage essential infrastructure worldwide. The 2018 Kerala flood was one of the most severe floods in recent history, caused by heavy rainfall. The lack of an early warning system leaves authorities and communities unprepared. The situation requires flood prediction systems that provide both precise results and prompt operational capabilities. This research presents a hybrid Truncated Singular Value Decomposition–Long Short-Term Memory (TSVD-LSTM) model for regional flood prediction, trained on the Kerala region dataset. A multivariate time-series dataset is created utilizing rainfall records (1901–2025) from IMD (India Meteorological Department) and flood-related information sourced from Kerala State Disasters Management Authority (KSDMA), as well as open-source archives like Kaggle datasets, news articles from the Malayala Manorama portal, and social media platforms, especially Facebook, to track real-time and community reports of flood events. In this research, TSVD is used to reduce dimensions, handle multicollinearity, and extract dominant features. While the LSTM algorithm captured long-term temporal dependencies in flood patterns. The TSVD-LSTM model achieves superior predictive performance, with an accuracy of 0.958 compared to the baseline LSTM model (0.833), demonstrating that combining dimensionality reduction with deep learning techniques enhances forecasting flood events.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100584"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147849768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Before and after the 2015 disaster: Development trajectories in the Himalayan riskscape of Langtang from 1949 to 2025","authors":"Alexander Klaus ,&nbsp;Susanne Schmidt ,&nbsp;Verena Flörchinger ,&nbsp;Temba Lama ,&nbsp;Marcus Nüsser","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100585","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100585","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urbanisation, land use changes and tourism in disaster-prone high mountain areas or riskscapes have emerged as important research topics and major planning challenges at a global scale with the Himalayan region as a hotspot. Since the opening of Nepal for foreigners, the Langtang Valley has emerged as an important central Himalayan trekking destination leading to rapid socio-economic changes and settlement expansions, interrupted by the massive 2015 Gorkha earthquake. This study aims to analyse the intricate interactions between settlement changes, post-disaster recovery and future development in Himalayan riskscapes. Using a multi-temporal and multi-source dataset including remote sensing imagery, photographs, travel guidebooks, interviews and participatory mapping, an assessment of settlement changes from the late 1940s until 2025 has been conducted. Before the mega-rupture, a slow onset of tourism can be observed, leading to urban sprawl, which replaced the formerly compact settlement structure of Langtang Village in the 1990s. Settlement growth in Kyanjin Gompa, the second village in the valley, has started with a delay but has accelerated since the mega-rupture. Ten years after the disaster, the number of hotels in Langtang Village is 74% higher and in Kyanjin Gompa even 155% higher compared to the situation before the earthquake. High densification can be observed in both settlement centres, resulting from building restrictions in hazard-prone areas. Despite the devastating geohazard, this study demonstrates that post-disaster reconstruction focused on tourism landscapes has further exacerbated risk.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100585"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147797601","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A flood vulnerability index and decision tree framework for building resilience in Sudan","authors":"Ruba Yousif,&nbsp;Alaa SirElkhatim,&nbsp;Ayman Azmi,&nbsp;Murtada K. Osman,&nbsp;Amged O. Abdelatif","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100577","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100577","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sudan experiences recurrent floods that cause widespread damage to housing and infrastructure, particularly in settlements where construction practices and environmental conditions increase exposure to floodwater. This study presents an integrated framework for assessing and managing building vulnerability through the combined use of a Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI) and a Decision Tree Analysis (DTA). The FVI quantifies structural and environmental vulnerability using indicators derived from field observations and documented flood events across six affected regions in Sudan, including Khartoum (Sharg Elneile), Wad Ramli, Al Managil, Northern State, Tokar, and the Arbaat Dam area. Building vulnerability was evaluated through materials, foundation type, and elevation, while environmental vulnerability accounted for proximity to water bodies, drainage performance, climate variability, and historical flooding. The DTA translates these quantified results into tailored mitigation and adaptation pathways aligned with the severity of risk. Findings show that high vulnerability levels are consistently associated with combinations of weak construction materials (e.g., adobe and lightweight roofing), inadequate or absent foundations, poor drainage conditions, and close proximity to flood-prone water channels. The hybrid FVI–DTA framework provides a clear and practical process for prioritising interventions, guiding reconstruction, and improving preparedness in flood-prone areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100577"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147702817","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}