Progress in Disaster Science最新文献

{"title":"Managing the post COVID-19 new normal: Redressing vulnerabilities of different occupational groups through social contract of public sector transparency and accountability","authors":"Shamima Prodhan,&nbsp;Khondoker Mokaddem Hossain,&nbsp;Md. Juel Mia","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100457","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100457","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The COVID-19 has had a significant impact on various occupational groups in Bangladesh, disrupting their fundamental necessities and everyday activities. This study examines the governance responses to these occupational groups, focusing on transparency and accountability through the lens of the social contract theory. Unlike prior studies focused on economic impacts, this study reveals how governance failures exacerbated vulnerabilities of a critical gap in pandemic literature. By employing a mixed-methods approach, this study integrated qualitative techniques (key informant interviews and focus group discussions) with quantitative surveys to analyze both primary data collected from 355 respondents and secondary data from institutional reports and scholarly literature. A significant association was found between the pandemic's impact and occupational groups (<em>X</em>²(1, <em>N</em> = 355) =49.09, <em>p</em> = 0.000), highlighting job losses, reduced income, business closures, and salary deductions. A high prevalence of income dissatisfaction was observed, with 97.7 % of respondents expressing their discontent. Financial strain during different pandemic waves was evident, with t-values of 13.09 (first wave vs. pre-pandemic), −11.051 (first wave vs. second wave), and 8.073 (pre-pandemic vs. second wave), all <em>p</em> &lt; 0.001. The government played a major role in providing food (<em>p</em> = 0.000) and health (<em>p</em> = 0.002) support; however, cash aid did not demonstrate statistical significance (<em>p</em> = 0.138). Gender inequalities were apparent in the provision of relief aid, with notable discrepancies in food assistance (<em>p</em> = 0.007), cash support (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.001), and healthcare aid (p &lt; 0.001). The study findings highlight the gaps in accountability and transparency in distributing support services, offering valuable insights for policymakers and researchers to enhance the resilience of impoverished populations in future crises. The study reveals novel insights into gendered aid disparities, urban-rural perception gaps, and systemic shortcomings in social safety nets during crises.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"27 ","pages":"Article 100457"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144757094","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Brahmaputra riverbank morpho dynamic changes: A multi-temporal geospatial assessment of erosional and processes in northern Bangladesh","authors":"Mostafizur Rahman,&nbsp;Rakibul Islam,&nbsp;Fabiha Bushra,&nbsp;Ibrahim Hossain,&nbsp;Mohoua Sobnam","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100452","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100452","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Over thirty years (1994–2024), the braided Brahmaputra River has driven dramatic erosion and accretion in Bangladesh's Rangpur Division in northern Bangladesh, reshaping landforms and livelihoods. Our Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI)-based satellite analysis identifies three phases: from 1994 to 2004, intense bank collapse and channel migration caused a net loss of 62.69 km²; from 2004 to 2014, sediment deposition—bolstered by embankments and land-management practices—produced a net gain of 101.81 km²; and from 2014 to 2024, renewed fluvial forces and diminished sediment retention led to a further net loss of 32.83 km². Fulchhari emerged as a hotspot of decline, while Ulipur and Chilmari showed alternating erosion–accretion patterns, highlighting localized sediment dynamics. These morphological changes have severe socio-economic impacts: agricultural lands have been swallowed by shifting channels, communities face repeated displacement, and infrastructure, including roads, schools, and flood defenses, remains at risk. By integrating multi-temporal NDWI metrics with Geographic Information System (GIS) mapping, this study moves beyond prior short-term or localized research to offer a comprehensive, longitudinal assessment of the Brahmaputra's geomorphological evolution. Addressing a key research gap, our findings elucidate the interplay of natural hydrodynamics and human interventions over decadal scales and provide essential guidance for sustainable river-bank management, infrastructure planning, and community resilience in one of South Asia's most dynamic fluvial landscapes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"27 ","pages":"Article 100452"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144771398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Risk assessment and simulation optimization of evacuation in large public building fires: A case study","authors":"Qiang Li,&nbsp;Zaohong Zhou,&nbsp;Yunbin Sun,&nbsp;Hongjun He","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100454","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100454","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Fires in large public buildings cause substantial losses. Conducting reasonable evacuation risk assessments and simulation studies for early warning is essential. A comprehensive fire evacuation risk assessment model is proposed, consisting of a fire evacuation risk assessment framework based on Pythagorean fuzzy sets(PFS) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation(FCE) and fire evacuation simulations. The fire evacuation risk assessment is conducted using PFS and FCE. Simulations with BIM, Pyrosim, and Pathfinder validate the results through dynamic safety analysis. This innovative approach enhances the dynamic safety analysis of evacuations. Additionally, the study improves the integration between Pyrosim and Pathfinder software, providing more accurate and reliable simulation results. Taking a cafeteria for primary and secondary school students as an example, the results indicate that the fire evacuation risk level of the student cafeteria is “moderately high risk.” Visibility is found to be the most critical factor affecting available safe evacuation time, compared to CO concentration, smoke layer height, and temperature. Not all cafeteria occupants could evacuate within the preset time, and significant congestion was observed. Thus, the assessment results are deemed reliable. Based on these results, targeted fire safety evacuation control strategies are proposed to enhance the efficiency and safety of evacuations in similar venues.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"27 ","pages":"Article 100454"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144771397","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Data-driven innovations in disaster risk management: Advancing resilience and sustainability through big data analytics","authors":"Suliman Zakaria Suliman Abdalla","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100451","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100451","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The integration of Big Data Analytics (BDA) into Disaster Risk Management (DRM) presents transformative opportunities to enhance decision-making and foster environmental sustainability across preparedness, response, recovery, and resilience. This study investigates the factors influencing BDA adoption in DRM using an integrated Technology-Organization-Environment and Diffusion of Innovation (TOE-DOI) framework. Survey data collected from academic participants with backgrounds in statistics, data analysis, and quantitative methods, along with technical, management, and disaster response professionals, were analyzed using ordinal logistic regression to assess the impact of technological, organizational, and environmental predictors. Key findings show that technological enablers drive BDA adoption by enhancing prediction and efficiency, while organizational readiness supports sustained integration. Stakeholder collaboration promotes adoption through improved coordination. In contrast, regulatory and competitive factors were not significant. The study provides actionable insights for advancing DRM through multidisciplinary strategies that align BDA integration with sustainability goals, emphasizing its potential to support resilient systems and informed decision-making in the face of complex environmental challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"27 ","pages":"Article 100451"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144686361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Geomorphic index alterations and socioeconomic implications: A case study of a Coastal River system in Bangladesh","authors":"Sukhen Goswami ,&nbsp;Md. Masum Billah ,&nbsp;Md Sabbir Hossen ,&nbsp;Mehedi Hasan Ovi ,&nbsp;Shacin Chandra Saha ,&nbsp;Mir Md. Tasnim Alam ,&nbsp;Probir Kumar Bhowmik ,&nbsp;Atikul Haque Farazi ,&nbsp;Md. Ashraful Islam ,&nbsp;Dhiman Kumer Roy","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100450","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100450","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Riverbank erosion, driven by natural processes and human activities, poses significant socio-environmental challenges in Bangladesh. This study investigated the geomorphic evolution and socioeconomic impacts of riverbank erosion along the Sandhya River in Babuganj Upazila, Barishal, Bangladesh. The primary aim was to assess how natural processes and human interventions, such as sand mining and infrastructure development, have altered the river morphology and affected local communities. Landsat imagery from 1980 to 2023, with a 10-year interval, was analyzed to assess key geomorphic indices—sinuosity, channel width, widening rate, and migration rate using remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS), and field surveys. The results indicate significant geomorphic transformation, with sinuosity varying between 1.01 and 2.08, with a post-2000 increase in channel widening (up to 27 m/year) linked to intensified sand mining and brickfield expansion. Mid-channel bar formation, absent before 2000, reached 4.0 km² by 2023, affecting flow patterns. The widening rate shifted from a maximum of 19 m/year (1980–2000, pre-sand mining) to 27 m/year (2000–2023, post-sand mining), with a peak near Doarika Bridge, which increased the vulnerability of the Barishal Airport area, averaging 3.65 m/year. Socioeconomic surveys (<em>n</em> = 154) reveal severe livelihood disruption: 65 % of lost land was agricultural, 73 % of affected households migrated to urban centers, and 45 % fell into debt. The most affected areas were Dehergati, Rahamatpur, Rakudia, and Kedarpur, emphasizing the need for capacity building. The study concludes that integrated geomorphic restoration and community resilience planning are urgently needed to address erosion-driven displacement and economic vulnerability in the region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"27 ","pages":"Article 100450"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144695287","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Influence of pedestrian grouping on evacuation efficiency in underground flooded stairs: a 3D numerical assessment","authors":"Carlos H. Aparicio Uribe ,&nbsp;Beniamino Russo ,&nbsp;Jackson Téllez-Álvarez ,&nbsp;Eduardo Martínez-Gomariz","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100448","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100448","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban floods increasingly threaten underground spaces and their users. Often essential for evacuation, stairs pose unique challenges as they also serve as the main path for the incoming water. While prior studies typically examine individual behaviour, the role of groups on flooded stairs remains underexplored. This study addresses that gap through a 3D numerical analysis evaluating how different pedestrian arrangements affect evacuation efficiency and safety. Using realistic human body dummies on real-scale stairs under a water discharge of 0.423 m³/s, the analysis calculates hydrodynamic forces alongside Momentum of Flow <em>M</em>_<em>F</em> and Specific Force Per Unit Width (SFPUW) <em>M</em>_<em>0</em> to assess hazardous conditions. Scenarios include individuals alone, in tandem, and side-by-side. Results show that group configurations significantly influence water-dragging forces. Side-by-side arrangements increased the force on both neighbouring and downstream pedestrians, while tandem formations reduced drag on trailing individuals. Greater separation distances between individuals reduced force influences. These findings reveal how group positioning affects safety during evacuation and highlight potential bottlenecks. The study offers valuable insights for improving evacuation strategies and safety protocols in underground infrastructure during floods, ultimately contributing to urban resilience and effective flood risk mitigation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"27 ","pages":"Article 100448"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144632653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparative evaluation of machine learning models for extreme river water level forecasting in Bangladesh: Implications for flood and drought resilience","authors":"Md Touhidul Islam ,&nbsp;Sujan Chandra Roy ,&nbsp;Nusrat Jahan ,&nbsp;Al-Mahmud ,&nbsp;Md Mazharul Islam ,&nbsp;Abdullah Al Ferdaus ,&nbsp;Kazunori Fujisawa ,&nbsp;A.K.M. Adham","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100449","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100449","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Reliable forecasting of extreme river water levels is vital for managing flood and drought risks in Bangladesh, a deltaic nation highly vulnerable to climate change. This study compares nine machine learning (ML) models for predicting monthly maximum and minimum water levels at three key stations along the Old Brahmaputra River using a 34-year dataset (1990–2024). Performance was assessed using ten metrics including RMSE, R², and NSE. Random Forest Regression (RFR) consistently outperformed other models, achieving the highest accuracy for both maximum (RMSE: 0.64–0.77 m; R²: 0.87–0.92) and minimum water levels (RMSE: 0.49–0.66 m; R²: 0.82–0.92), while linear models underperformed in capturing nonlinear patterns. A PCA-based framework further validated RFR's robustness, with average normalized composite scores of 1.00 (maximum) and 0.99 (minimum), significantly surpassing Ensemble Regression (0.89/0.84), Support Vector Regression (0.88/0.88), and other models. Spatially, midstream stations showed higher accuracy (R² &gt; 0.90) due to stable hydrodynamics, while downstream performance decreased from tidal effects. Key innovations including autoregressive lag features, sliding windows, and a multivariate evaluation framework significantly improved prediction accuracy. These findings demonstrate that ML models can enhance water level forecasting and disaster resilience in climate-vulnerable regions, even with limited data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"27 ","pages":"Article 100449"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144604926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Community resilience to wildfires: A systematic review of impacts, coping strategies, indicators, and governance challenges","authors":"José Sandoval-Díaz ,&nbsp;Camila Navarrete-Valladares ,&nbsp;Jerónimo Vega-Ortega ,&nbsp;Consuelo Suazo-Muñoz ,&nbsp;Juan P. Gallegos Riquelme ,&nbsp;Eduardo Sandoval-Obando ,&nbsp;Carlos Reyes Valenzuela","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100447","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100447","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Wildfires are socio-natural disasters of anthropogenic origin that threaten ecosystems and urban-rural interface communities. Strengthening community resilience (CR) is essential to reduce and mitigate associated risks and impacts. This study conducts a systematic review of global literature on CR to wildfires, following PRISMA 2020 guidelines. A total of 272 articles were retrieved from Web of Science, Scopus, EBSCO Host, and SciELO, with 30 meeting the inclusion criteria. Content analysis and narrative synthesis were conducted, segmenting findings into impacts, coping strategies, and promoters and barriers of CR, complemented by a meta-synthesis prioritizing qualitative post-disaster studies. Main impacts included environmental degradation and persistent mental health problems. Evacuations and social cohesion emerged as key coping strategies, while social support networks and emergency planning were critical promoters of resilience. Barriers included inadequate disaster risk governance, limited local capacities, and weakened community cohesion. Findings highlight the need to integrate technical and local knowledge to enhance disaster preparedness, response, and recovery, emphasizing the articulation between community initiatives and institutional frameworks. This study contributes evidence-based recommendations for strengthening community-based disaster risk management strategies, supporting holistic, multilevel approaches aligned with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"27 ","pages":"Article 100447"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144571658","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Rebuilding lives in Nagaya, a public housing for older victims of the great East Japan earthquake: An interview survey","authors":"Naomi Ito ,&nbsp;Yurie Kobashi ,&nbsp;Yuri Kinoshita ,&nbsp;Nobuaki Moriyama ,&nbsp;Toshiki Abe ,&nbsp;Hiroaki Saito ,&nbsp;Isamu Amir ,&nbsp;Chika Yamamoto ,&nbsp;Mika Sato ,&nbsp;Masaharu Tsubokura","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100446","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100446","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>After the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, Soma City in Fukushima Prefecture, sustained extensive damage, and subsequently developed public housing for older victims, namely ‘Soma Idobata Nagaya’. The current interview survey aimed to report the living conditions of such older victims in Nagaya and accordingly suggest strategies for supporting the older population who experience disasters. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 32 Nagaya residents, who relocated there due to the earthquake, and performed a thematic analysis of the data. The development of Nagaya in Soma City after the earthquake enabled older residents to return to their familiar neighbourhoods and provided social security for those vulnerable to disasters. Beyond housing, Nagaya offered psychological stability and supported their independent living in a way they desired. It played a substantial role in rebuilding their lives, allowing them to overcome the hardships of the disaster and reintegrate into the local community. In summary, this study emphasizes the critical role of communities in post-disaster recovery and proposes new perspectives for supporting older adults in such contexts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"27 ","pages":"Article 100446"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144514136","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing preference heterogeneity for nature-based flood control measures: An econometric analysis using a choice experiment","authors":"Takahiro Tsuge ,&nbsp;Ayumi Onuma ,&nbsp;Jun Nishihiro ,&nbsp;Yuki Shibata ,&nbsp;Taro Shoji ,&nbsp;Yasutaka Satake ,&nbsp;Takehito Yoshida","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100444","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100444","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent years, green infrastructure has gained attention due to the increasing risk of disasters caused by extreme weather and growing concern for environmental conservation. A key feature of green infrastructure is its multifunctionality. To accurately assess its benefits, it is necessary to evaluate the full range of its functions. This study employed a choice experiment to estimate the value of various aspects of nature-based flood control measures in the Lake Inba basin in Japan. The results, derived using a random parameter logit model, revealed that (1) certain flood countermeasures were highly preferred, (2) respondents' willingness to pay (WTP) for a 1 % reduction in the annual probability of flood damage was 771 JPY, (3) marginal utility diminished as the reduction in flood damages within local communities increased, and (4) environmental benefits of green infrastructure were significant. Additionally, results from the latent class model identified two respondent groups with distinct preferences. The group that was more concerned about flooding was more proactive in supporting countermeasures and had higher WTP for each function that nature-based countermeasures provide than the other group. These indicate that green infrastructure not only provides critical flood control benefits but also offers significant environmental and recreational advantages.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"27 ","pages":"Article 100444"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144297414","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}