Progress in Disaster Science最新文献

{"title":"Reconceptualizing community-based disaster risk management: From external-led projects to community-centered resilience building through a systematic review","authors":"Aradhna Moktan ,&nbsp;Sharmistha Banerjee ,&nbsp;Anamika Barua","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100569","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100569","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite recognition of Community-Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM) as essential for building resilience, protecting development gains, and reducing poverty in disaster-prone regions, a fundamental paradox persists: CBDRM initiatives mostly remain externally-driven projects, led by external agencies, implemented top-down with varying degrees of community involvement that cease after funding ends, failing to address the structural vulnerabilities that perpetuate poverty and inequality. This systematic review analyzed 33 peer-reviewed CBDRM cases (2005–2024) from Asia, the Americas, and Australia to examine: (1) how CBDRM has been applied across contexts; (2) the roles and power dynamics among stakeholders; (3) benefits and limitations for vulnerable populations; and (4) contributions to sustainable development outcomes. Through thematic and co-occurrence analysis, we identified four interconnected pillars of effective CBDRM: community networking, policy frameworks, participatory approaches, and local/indigenous knowledge integration. Our findings suggest that community-centered initiatives demonstrating bottom-up approaches and self-reliance tend to exhibit greater sustainability and resilience compared to purely top-down implementations, which typically cease after project completion. However, successful implementation requires balancing community autonomy with external support while explicitly targeting structural inequalities. We propose the ‘Resilient CBDRM Framework’ that reconceptualizes the traditional donor-recipient relationship, positioning communities as primary development actors within a tiered support system. This framework offers practical guidance for development practitioners, policymakers, and communities to transform CBDRM from short-term, dependency-creating projects into sustainable mechanisms for poverty reduction, democratic participation, and inclusive development. Our findings suggest that effective disaster risk management requires addressing the root causes of vulnerability poverty, inequality, and powerlessness rather than merely managing hazard exposure.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100569"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147657202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate Change Impacts on Water Security in Ethiopia: A systematic Review of Hydroclimatic Trends, Resilience Strategies, and Governance in Major River Basins","authors":"Abebe M. Legass ,&nbsp;Tena Alamirew ,&nbsp;Solomon G. Gebrehiwot ,&nbsp;David Haro-Monteagudo ,&nbsp;Lewoye Tsegaye","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100562","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100562","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This systematic review synthesizes 50 studies (2009–2025) examining climate change impacts on water security across Ethiopia's Abbay (Blue Nile), Awash, Omo-Gibe, and Rift Valley Lakes basins. Following PRISMA 2020 guidelines with dual-independent screening and thematic synthesis, we harmonized heterogeneous projections from diverse climate models and scenarios to enable robust cross-study comparison. Findings reveal a dominant mid- to end-century drying signal under high-emission pathways, driven by temperature-induced evapotranspiration exceeding precipitation changes. Projected impacts exhibit pronounced basin-specificity: Rift Valley Lakes shows groundwater recharge declines of 47–53% and water yield reductions of 48% by 2080s (RCP8.5); Awash shows mean annual flow reductions of 10–29% by 2050s. Abbay and Omo-Gibe exhibit scenario-dependence: under moderate pathways, Abbay shows potential flow increases of 10–25% by 2080s, while under high emissions water yield contracts by 22.7%. The review's central contribution is a basin-specific governance diagnosis: the gap between policy ideals and operational realities manifests as an enforcement deficit in Awash (&gt;70% unlicensed abstractions), transboundary coordination void in Abbay, sectoral capture in Omo-Gibe, and regulatory drift in Rift Valley Lakes (&lt;40% permit compliance). These findings demonstrate that hydrological outcomes are mediated by institutional design. Strengthening basin authorities through targeted investments enforcement capacity, transboundary benefit-sharing, multi-sector oversight, and compliance protocols can mitigate risks. These insights are transferable to other water-stressed regions facing similar challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100562"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147602140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Long-term prediction of floods with a TSVD-LSTM based on the century-scale rainfall data: A case study on Kerala, India","authors":"P.M. Nasiya,&nbsp;Prathilothamai M.","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100584","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100584","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Floods are among the most destructive natural disasters because they create life-threatening conditions and damage essential infrastructure worldwide. The 2018 Kerala flood was one of the most severe floods in recent history, caused by heavy rainfall. The lack of an early warning system leaves authorities and communities unprepared. The situation requires flood prediction systems that provide both precise results and prompt operational capabilities. This research presents a hybrid Truncated Singular Value Decomposition–Long Short-Term Memory (TSVD-LSTM) model for regional flood prediction, trained on the Kerala region dataset. A multivariate time-series dataset is created utilizing rainfall records (1901–2025) from IMD (India Meteorological Department) and flood-related information sourced from Kerala State Disasters Management Authority (KSDMA), as well as open-source archives like Kaggle datasets, news articles from the Malayala Manorama portal, and social media platforms, especially Facebook, to track real-time and community reports of flood events. In this research, TSVD is used to reduce dimensions, handle multicollinearity, and extract dominant features. While the LSTM algorithm captured long-term temporal dependencies in flood patterns. The TSVD-LSTM model achieves superior predictive performance, with an accuracy of 0.958 compared to the baseline LSTM model (0.833), demonstrating that combining dimensionality reduction with deep learning techniques enhances forecasting flood events.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100584"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147849768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Urban morphology and risk resilience – Bibliographic analysis and review","authors":"Iva Mrak ,&nbsp;Martina Šopić ,&nbsp;Ivan Marović","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100564","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100564","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Although urban morphology has a long tradition, only recently has its interrelation with the risk and resilience of urbanised communities gained greater prominence. The aim of this paper is to present the framework, current state of the art, and approaches to these topics by addressing the following research questions: Which research areas address urban morphology and risk resilience? What topics are related to urban morphology and risk resilience, and what general overlaps or gaps exist? What are the approaches to urban morphology and to risk resilience? Do these topics correlate with the UN SDGs and the Sendai FDDR? The research finds that this is a topic of growing interest, with many interconnected and overlapping topics and related to various scientific fields. It identifies two distinct groups of papers based on their methodological approaches and tools. It identifies several core contradictions: sectoral approaches versus the complexity of reality; narrative versus analytical approaches; frictions arising from differing needs related to various morphologies; and overlaps and gaps in topics and connections to the UN SDGs and Sendai FDDR. The research highlights the need to shift toward high-tech analytical and generative tools based on improved spatial data, adopt multirisk rather than single-sector scenarios, move from narrative to analytical and actionable social resilience research, and prioritize adaptive redundancy over minimal functionality, thereby creating spaces with adaptive morphologies. It also demonstrates how urban form affects the risk and resilience of urbanised areas and different populations providing a basis for policy-related research and implementation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100564"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147602141","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Human mobility as a climate and disaster risk management strategy: Addressing intersectional vulnerability and enhancing women's agency","authors":"Gerald Leppert ,&nbsp;Liana Almony ,&nbsp;Arnaud Kurze ,&nbsp;Carolina Xavier ,&nbsp;Yasmine Jones ,&nbsp;Anabella Pistilli","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100570","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100570","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate-related disasters are increasingly driving human mobility, forcing millions to relocate. Recent disaster risk scholarship recognizes mobility as an adaptation strategy, enabling individuals and communities to reduce hazard exposure and pursue more secure livelihoods. Yet governance frameworks overlook how access to mobility is shaped by gendered power relations and intersecting inequalities.</div><div>This article situates mobility within transformative risk management, drawing on Leppert et al. (2021) to conceptualize migration as a multi-stage process shaped by climate impacts, context, and governance interventions. Using an intersectional lens, we examine how gender structures experiences, agency, and decision-making.</div><div>Through comparative analysis of policy instruments of cases from climate-vulnerable contexts in the Global South, the study assesses (a) the drivers and constraints shaping women's mobility decisions, and (b) the extent to which disaster risk management and climate change adaptation policies address gendered dimensions of mobility. Particular attention is paid to how governance arrangements and norms mediate access to rights, resources, adaptation strategies, and protection.</div><div>Findings show that while mobility can function as an adaptation strategy, its risk- and vulnerability-reduction potential depends on inclusive governance that expands—not restricts—agency. The article advances disaster science debates and offers policy recommendations for integrating equity and intersectionality into climate risk and disaster risk management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100570"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148001627","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Facing home loss and disruption after a flood: Women's stories of disaster recovery","authors":"Typhaine Leclerc ,&nbsp;Lily Lessard ,&nbsp;Johanne Saint-Charles","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100595","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100595","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Extreme weather events like floods provoke an array of consequences on mental health and wellbeing in affected populations, including disorientation and disruptions of one's sense of home. Relying on a phenomenological understanding of home as an essential resource for one's sense of self and safety, and health as a feeling of being at home in the world, the article focuses on home loss and disruption experienced by women after a major river flood in the Quebec province, Canada. Data was collected through in-depth interviews and analysis followed principles of narrative inquiry.</div><div>We first show how the flood itself and related events, such as widespread demolitions, altered participants' sense of home, causing disorientation. We then identify processes of sensemaking used by participants to rebuild their sense of home after the flood: documenting the event, speaking out about it, comparing their experience with others' and taking symbolic actions. We also explore issues that arose for those who were unable to act or engage emotionally with these experiences. The study highlights a gap in disaster science literature, which typically focuses on the consequences of home loss, but not on how individuals rebuild their sense of home. We argue that narrative sensemaking processes are a fruitful way of rebuilding one's sense of home after the disorientation and disruption caused by floods, which could be mobilized in re-housing efforts after disasters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100595"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148001630","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Corrigendum to ‘Bipolarization in the acceptance of reusing contaminated soil generated by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident of 2011’ [Progress in Disaster Science 28 (2025) 100479]","authors":"Tomoko Watanabe ,&nbsp;Hitomi Matsunaga ,&nbsp;Aizhan Zabirova ,&nbsp;Stephen Takeshi Terada ,&nbsp;Yuya Kashiwazaki ,&nbsp;Makiko Orita ,&nbsp;Thierry Schneider ,&nbsp;Noboru Takamura","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100563","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100563","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100563"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148241822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate change strategies in selected large European cities: Specific activities and the role of urban open spaces","authors":"Sina Hammermeister ,&nbsp;Victoria Dietze ,&nbsp;Marcin Spyra","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100597","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100597","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Cities face escalating risks from climate change, including heat stress and flooding, yet remain pivotal actors in climate mitigation and adaptation due to their concentration of population, infrastructure, and governance capacity. This study analyses climate strategies in 29 selected European cities with three objectives: (1) to compare how mitigation and adaptation are framed, (2) to analyse the concrete measures proposed, and (3) to examine the role attributed to urban open spaces within these measures.</div><div>Using qualitative content analysis, we examine 33 strategies comprising nearly 2,500 individual measures. While all cities demonstrate active engagement with climate action, substantial variation exists in the scope and comprehensiveness of their strategies. Mitigation measures dominate overall, although adaptation and integrated measures addressing climate risks are increasingly prominent. Governance arrangements commonly involve collaboration between public authorities, citizens, and private stakeholders through regulatory, informational, and participatory instruments.</div><div>Urban open spaces remain underrepresented overall, but are particularly significant within adaptation and integrated measures, where green and green–grey spaces support heat mitigation, water management, and risk reduction. The findings highlight the need for cross-city learning, stronger integration of urban open spaces into climate and disaster risk strategies, and more systematic evaluation of implementation outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100597"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148177736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Rethinking climate resilience in inland fishing communities: Gendered perspectives from Kurigram, Bangladesh","authors":"Sizwile Khoza ,&nbsp;Md. Mahbub-Ul- Haque ,&nbsp;Sushmita Mandal","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100604","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100604","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We conducted a qualitative study from January to August 2025, engaging fisherfolk in Kurigram District, Bangladesh. Through purposively sampled key informant interviews (<em>n</em> = 7) with respondents from academia, civil society organizations, and government actors identified as working with small-scale inland fisheries, conventional focus group discussions (FGDs, <em>n</em> = 8), and photovoice FGDs (<em>n</em> = 4 photovoice FGD sessions). Thematic analysis was applied across all data sources to explore gender-differentiated lived experiences of fisherfolk in a changing climate. Both women and men face marginalization, powerlessness, inequity, and environmental degradation, which serve as primary barriers to climate resilience. Women are most impacted due to the interaction of complex, intersecting factors that compound marginalization and inequality, increasing their vulnerability. There is elite capture of inland fisheries by powerful, wealthy men who also engage in harmful fishing practices and restrict access to the beels, marginalizing fisherfolk and putting their livelihoods at risk, consequently eroding the vital local and traditional ecological knowledge needed to sustain these social-ecological systems. Systemic and structural changes are crucial for fishing communities to achieve transformative resilience. Current disaster risk reduction and resilience efforts are gender-sensitive or gender-responsive at best, often failing to sustain. This study applies a Feminist Political Ecology lens and encourages a gender-transformative approach as a way forward. Revisiting fisheries governance and making it bottom-up by nurturing fisherfolk's stewardship is vital in this climate-changing context. The polycrisis of climate change, disasters, gender and social inequalities, and marginalization demands a shift from conventional adaptive resilience to transformative resilience that will deliver equitable outcomes for women and men fisherfolk.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100604"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148177737","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Resilience profiles and disaster preparedness in nursing and midwifery students: Linking educational preferences and behavioral intentions","authors":"Ying Niu ,&nbsp;Jiaqi Yang ,&nbsp;Guanhua Wang ,&nbsp;Tao Zeng ,&nbsp;Chen Chen ,&nbsp;Linlin Luo ,&nbsp;Lina Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100590","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100590","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Frequent global disasters threaten health. Resilience is a key factor influencing the disaster preparedness of nursing and midwifery students, who are future reserves for disaster response. This cross-sectional study surveyed 681 undergraduate nursing and midwifery students, assessing resilience, coping style, interpersonal competence, emergency prevention competence, negative life events, and disaster preparedness. Latent profile analysis revealed three distinct resilience profiles. The High Resilience – Resilient Growth (Preparedness-oriented) group comprised only 7.05%. Most students (51.10%) were in the Moderate Resilience – Experiential Growth (Adaptive coping) group, and 41.85% belonged to the Low Resilience – Cognitive Anchored (At-risk) group. Students in the high-resilience group usually had stronger protective factors, like positive coping, interpersonal competence, and emergency prevention competence. They also reported far fewer risk factors overall, including fewer negative life events. The profiles' ordinal structure justified using ordinal logistic regression to identify factors of profile membership. Given the wide variation in resilience, schools must replace one-size-fits-all programs with interventions tailored to each profile's strengths and needs. This person-centered approach enables precise strategies. These findings contribute to disaster theory by highlighting a shift toward classification-based risk governance, and suggest a potential link between individual resilience and health system robustness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100590"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147951336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}