Progress in Disaster Science最新文献_第5页

The role of private sector engagement in disaster risk reduction. A critical review of approaches, enablers, and barriers 私营部门参与减少灾害风险的作用。对方法、促成因素和障碍的批判性回顾

IF 3.8

Progress in Disaster Science Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-05-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100588

Lum Sonita Awah, Abiodun Akintunde Ogundeji

{"title":"The role of private sector engagement in disaster risk reduction. A critical review of approaches, enablers, and barriers","authors":"Lum Sonita Awah, Abiodun Akintunde Ogundeji","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100588","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100588","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The private sector engagement in disaster risk reduction is increasingly recognised as critical for building resilient communities, however, its proactive role in disaster risk reduction (DRR) remains underexplored. A systematic qualitative review of peer-reviewed and grey literature was conducted to examine approaches, enabling factors, and barriers influencing private sector participation in DRR. Using Atlas.ti to analyse data, 33 principal codes linked to 257 quotations were generated, enabling a thematic synthesis of key patterns. The findings reveal that private sector involvement in DRR is minimal and, where available, it is often fragmented, reactive, and largely limited to philanthropic corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities, rather than integrated strategic engagement. The results reveal that engagement approaches and enabling factors are often hindered by barriers like weak regulatory alignment, limited incentives, and the prevailing view that DRR is solely a government responsibility. Thematic co-occurrence analysis reveals that isolated enabling conditions are insufficient to overcome entrenched systemic constraints. This study highlights the underutilised potential of private sector actors in DRR. It calls for a shift toward strategic, coordinated, and incentive-driven models of engagement, providing actionable insights for policymakers, researchers, and practitioners seeking to strengthen public–private collaboration in DRR and advance the Sustainable Development Goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100588"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147951434","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Before and after the 2015 disaster: Development trajectories in the Himalayan riskscape of Langtang from 1949 to 2025 2015年灾害前后：1949 - 2025年朗塘喜马拉雅风险景观的发展轨迹

IF 3.8

Progress in Disaster Science Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100585

Alexander Klaus , Susanne Schmidt , Verena Flörchinger , Temba Lama , Marcus Nüsser

{"title":"Before and after the 2015 disaster: Development trajectories in the Himalayan riskscape of Langtang from 1949 to 2025","authors":"Alexander Klaus , Susanne Schmidt , Verena Flörchinger , Temba Lama , Marcus Nüsser","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100585","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100585","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urbanisation, land use changes and tourism in disaster-prone high mountain areas or riskscapes have emerged as important research topics and major planning challenges at a global scale with the Himalayan region as a hotspot. Since the opening of Nepal for foreigners, the Langtang Valley has emerged as an important central Himalayan trekking destination leading to rapid socio-economic changes and settlement expansions, interrupted by the massive 2015 Gorkha earthquake. This study aims to analyse the intricate interactions between settlement changes, post-disaster recovery and future development in Himalayan riskscapes. Using a multi-temporal and multi-source dataset including remote sensing imagery, photographs, travel guidebooks, interviews and participatory mapping, an assessment of settlement changes from the late 1940s until 2025 has been conducted. Before the mega-rupture, a slow onset of tourism can be observed, leading to urban sprawl, which replaced the formerly compact settlement structure of Langtang Village in the 1990s. Settlement growth in Kyanjin Gompa, the second village in the valley, has started with a delay but has accelerated since the mega-rupture. Ten years after the disaster, the number of hotels in Langtang Village is 74% higher and in Kyanjin Gompa even 155% higher compared to the situation before the earthquake. High densification can be observed in both settlement centres, resulting from building restrictions in hazard-prone areas. Despite the devastating geohazard, this study demonstrates that post-disaster reconstruction focused on tourism landscapes has further exacerbated risk.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100585"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147797601","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A flood vulnerability index and decision tree framework for building resilience in Sudan 苏丹建设抗灾能力的洪水脆弱性指数和决策树框架

IF 3.8

Progress in Disaster Science Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100577

Ruba Yousif, Alaa SirElkhatim, Ayman Azmi, Murtada K. Osman, Amged O. Abdelatif

{"title":"A flood vulnerability index and decision tree framework for building resilience in Sudan","authors":"Ruba Yousif, Alaa SirElkhatim, Ayman Azmi, Murtada K. Osman, Amged O. Abdelatif","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100577","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100577","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sudan experiences recurrent floods that cause widespread damage to housing and infrastructure, particularly in settlements where construction practices and environmental conditions increase exposure to floodwater. This study presents an integrated framework for assessing and managing building vulnerability through the combined use of a Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI) and a Decision Tree Analysis (DTA). The FVI quantifies structural and environmental vulnerability using indicators derived from field observations and documented flood events across six affected regions in Sudan, including Khartoum (Sharg Elneile), Wad Ramli, Al Managil, Northern State, Tokar, and the Arbaat Dam area. Building vulnerability was evaluated through materials, foundation type, and elevation, while environmental vulnerability accounted for proximity to water bodies, drainage performance, climate variability, and historical flooding. The DTA translates these quantified results into tailored mitigation and adaptation pathways aligned with the severity of risk. Findings show that high vulnerability levels are consistently associated with combinations of weak construction materials (e.g., adobe and lightweight roofing), inadequate or absent foundations, poor drainage conditions, and close proximity to flood-prone water channels. The hybrid FVI–DTA framework provides a clear and practical process for prioritising interventions, guiding reconstruction, and improving preparedness in flood-prone areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100577"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147702817","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Advancing disaster response with a comparative multisensor satellite imagery approach: The 2025 Palisades Fire in California 用比较多传感器卫星图像方法推进灾害响应：2025年加州帕利塞德斯大火

IF 3.8

Progress in Disaster Science Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100573

Samaneh Bagheri , Sadra Karimzadeh , Mehrdad Jeihouni , Mojtaba Sadegh , Eric J. Fielding , Hiroyuki Miura

{"title":"Advancing disaster response with a comparative multisensor satellite imagery approach: The 2025 Palisades Fire in California","authors":"Samaneh Bagheri , Sadra Karimzadeh , Mehrdad Jeihouni , Mojtaba Sadegh , Eric J. Fielding , Hiroyuki Miura","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100573","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100573","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Wildfires pose severe threats to lives, critical infrastructure, and ecosystems, particularly in urban–wildland interface settings where rapid situational awareness is essential for response and early recovery. This study presents a comparative multisensor satellite workflow for rapid wildfire damage assessment, demonstrated using the 2025 Pacific Palisades Fire (California) as a case study. We integrate Sentinel-2 optical imagery with ALOS-2 (L-band) and Sentinel-1 (C-band) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data to map burned areas and characterize structural impacts. Burned regions are delineated using optical spectral indices, while SAR coherence and texture features support urban damage characterization, including conditions where optical observations are hindered by smoke or clouds. Results indicate that ALOS-2 achieved higher classification performance (84.64% accuracy, Kappa = 0.73) compared with Sentinel-1 (78.31% accuracy, Kappa = 0.61), underscoring the added value of L-band SAR for post-fire impact mapping. The event affected 92.99 km<sup>2</sup>, including 92.05 km<sup>2</sup> of forest and 0.94 km<sup>2</sup> of residential areas. Beyond technical performance, the comparison highlights operational trade-offs relevant to disaster response, where higher-accuracy products must be balanced against data accessibility and acquisition frequency. Overall, the proposed multisensor analysis supports rapid post-fire assessment and provides actionable information for emergency response and evidence-based recovery planning in fire-prone regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100573"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147702824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Projected evolution of flood hazards under global warming in the Jhelum and Chenab River Basins of Pakistan: An integrated modeling approach 全球变暖下巴基斯坦Jhelum和Chenab河流域洪水灾害的预估演变：一种综合模拟方法

IF 3.8

Progress in Disaster Science Pub Date : 2026-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100566

Ammara Mubeen, Umm e Habiba, Sajjad Haider, Zafar Iqbal, Hamza Farooq Gabriel, Shakil Ahmad, Muhammad Umar, Saad Ahmed Jamal

{"title":"Projected evolution of flood hazards under global warming in the Jhelum and Chenab River Basins of Pakistan: An integrated modeling approach","authors":"Ammara Mubeen, Umm e Habiba, Sajjad Haider, Zafar Iqbal, Hamza Farooq Gabriel, Shakil Ahmad, Muhammad Umar, Saad Ahmed Jamal","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100566","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100566","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding how flood magnitudes may evolve under future climate conditions is critical for Pakistan. Accordingly, this study assesses climate change impacts on extreme hydrological responses across all return periods in the Jhelum and Chenab River basins, where high-flow regimes are governed by both monsoon rainfall and cryospheric contributions. An integrated modeling framework combining the physically based Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) to simulate future extreme flows under synthesized climate scenarios, and the Rainfall Runoff Inundation (RRI) model was used to evaluate inundation extents using synthetic design hydrographs as unsteady flow boundary conditions. Climate data archives, including observed and reanalysis (1971–2004), and General Circulation Model (GCM) projections (2005–2099) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, were utilized. Results suggest a likely decrease in projected flood magnitudes across most return periods during the twenty-first century, driven by increased temperatures, enhanced evapotranspiration, and changes in monsoon precipitation. The magnitude and timing of these changes vary across scenarios and climate models, indicating that reductions in flood magnitudes are scenario-dependent rather than deterministic, and should be interpreted as plausible trends under the selected climate forcings. The flood areas were also estimated for the projected floods corresponding to return levels of 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, 500, and 1000 years. The findings offer valuable decision-support information for sustainable flood risk management, climate adaptation planning, and the design of resilient infrastructure and land-use strategies, contributing to reduced environmental degradation and economic losses under future climate conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100566"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147657200","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Machine learning for estimating catastrophic health spending in disaster-affected, data-scarce settings 在受灾害影响、数据匮乏的环境中，用于估计灾难性卫生支出的机器学习

IF 3.8

Progress in Disaster Science Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-05-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100600

Rozana Himaz , Dimitra Salmanidou , Saman Ghaffarian

{"title":"Machine learning for estimating catastrophic health spending in disaster-affected, data-scarce settings","authors":"Rozana Himaz , Dimitra Salmanidou , Saman Ghaffarian","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100600","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100600","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Natural hazards can increase out-of-pocket health costs, pushing vulnerable households into poverty. Mitigation measures require understanding changes in health spending patterns using pre- and post-event data. Such data are often unavailable in disaster-affected settings. This makes it impossible to construct the counterfactual quantities needed for welfare analysis. To address this measurement problem, we develop a hybrid machine learning approach to estimate unobserved household health spending using longitudinal survey data from Indonesia. We first develop a model around the 2006 Yogyakarta earthquake, for which complete data are available. The model learns spending patterns across income, hazard intensity, and other characteristics, achieving >70% accuracy in a noisy and complex domain. After testing the model for transportability, we apply it to post-2004 Indian Ocean tsunami data in Indonesia, to predict plausible baseline health spending. These predictions are used to evaluate the impact of the tsunami on health spending to reveal that without targeted aid, catastrophic health spending would have increased from 4.5% to 29.4% and that moderately damaged households experienced more cost increases than heavily damaged ones. By combining artificial intelligence with household survey data, our framework offers a proof-of-concept for constructing unobserved welfare baselines, extensible toward foundation model approaches using multimodal data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100600"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148177734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Nudging disaster preparedness: The divergent and combined effects of framing and social norms on emergency stockpiling behavior 推动备灾：框架和社会规范对应急储备行为的发散和联合影响

IF 3.8

Progress in Disaster Science Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100611

Leyu Wang, Qi Bian, Ben Ma, Luning Xin

{"title":"Nudging disaster preparedness: The divergent and combined effects of framing and social norms on emergency stockpiling behavior","authors":"Leyu Wang, Qi Bian, Ben Ma, Luning Xin","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100611","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100611","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As prominent interventions, nudging strategies contribute significantly to enhancing public disaster preparedness. This study employs a 2 × 3 between-subjects factorial scenario-based survey experiment with 1100 respondents from China to investigate how nudging strategies, specifically gain-loss framing and trending social norms, affect individuals' stockpiling behavior for emergency supplies, both independently and in combination. The findings reveal that both information framing and trending social norms significantly influence emergency stockpiling behavior, with loss framing showing greater effectiveness in prompting individuals to take action. However, the combination of gain-loss framing and trending social norms yields no significant interaction effect, failing to achieve the anticipated synergistic effect. Additionally, threat-related emotions, particularly fear and anxiety, mediate the relationship between gain-loss framing and emergency stockpiling behavior. These findings offer insights for policymakers to optimize public emergency stockpiling through targeted nudging strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100611"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148178506","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Climate resilience and collective action in Monrovia's coastal communities 蒙罗维亚沿海社区的气候适应能力和集体行动

IF 3.8

Progress in Disaster Science Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100579

Mohammed W. Bah, Nicola Ulibarri

{"title":"Climate resilience and collective action in Monrovia's coastal communities","authors":"Mohammed W. Bah, Nicola Ulibarri","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100579","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100579","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Like many low-lying coastal nations, Liberia faces severe threats from sea level rise, coastal erosion, and flooding. These threats are particularly acute for residents of informal slum communities, who are relegated to high-hazard areas that lack basic infrastructure and are frequently overlooked by government officials. In addition, Liberia's limited national institutional capacity has left adaptation to coastal residents and other local stakeholders. This research examines how collective action shapes coastal climate adaptation strategies in two of the largest slum communities in Liberia, West Point and New Kru Town. Drawing on semi-structured interviews, this research investigates how residents experience and respond to coastal hazards, the role of government and civil society actors in supporting adaptation, and barriers to effective collective action. The study reveals disparities in government attention between the two communities, with New Kru Town receiving more infrastructural support than West Point, as well as gaps in government-community collaboration, funding limitations, and fragmented policy frameworks that undermine coastal resilience efforts. Despite these challenges, the communities sustain resilience through a variety of grassroots efforts. This study highlights the need for durable, government-backed solutions and stronger institutional accountability to support frontline communities in low-income, climate-vulnerable urban settings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100579"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147749815","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Drivers of post-cyclone Amphan recovery in South Twenty-Four Parganas, India: Insights from a Sustainable Livelihoods Approach 印度南24帕尔加纳斯安潘飓风后恢复的驱动因素：来自可持续生计方法的见解

IF 3.8

Progress in Disaster Science Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-05-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100589

Devdyuti Bose , Trupti Mishra , Subhankar Karmakar

{"title":"Drivers of post-cyclone Amphan recovery in South Twenty-Four Parganas, India: Insights from a Sustainable Livelihoods Approach","authors":"Devdyuti Bose , Trupti Mishra , Subhankar Karmakar","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100589","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100589","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The east-coastal communities in India are highly vulnerable to cyclones, with the 2020 Super Cyclone Amphan exacerbating hardships, particularly amid the concurrent COVID-19 pandemic. The adverse impacts of the cyclone heightened the pre-existing socio-economic vulnerabilities, posing serious challenges to sustained livelihood recovery, which requires policy support. However, existing research on recovery pattern from such multi-hazards remains limited. This study investigates the recovery dynamics and key drivers influencing housing and income restoration in the most vulnerable blocks of South Twenty-Four Parganas, one of India's highest-risk coastal districts. Using the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach, we conducted a household survey (<em>n</em> = 223) across highest vulnerable blocks. Findings highlight that social capital is one of the key drivers of recovery. Strong trust in local government is significantly and positively associated with income recovery. Bonding social capital is also positively associated with housing recovery. Receipt of either form of formal aid significantly inccreases the probability of housing repair by 26.4 percentage-points, and higher annual income is significantly associated with income recovery (Odds ratio = 1.21). Coping measures significantly decrease probability of complete housing repair by 6.4 percentage points. The study underscores challenges posed by multi-hazards and advocates for a recovery framework centred on restoring livelihood assets and enhancing community resilience. These insights offer valuable guidance for policymakers in designing targeted interventions to strengthen disaster recovery and risk reduction strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100589"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148001628","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Integrating forecast-based action and government-led social protection programs for flood response 将基于预测的行动与政府主导的社会保护计划结合起来，以应对洪水

IF 3.8

Progress in Disaster Science Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100506

Rashel Mahmud, Sonia Binte Murshed, Faisal Mahmud Sakib, Shampa, Mashfiqus Salehin

{"title":"Integrating forecast-based action and government-led social protection programs for flood response","authors":"Rashel Mahmud, Sonia Binte Murshed, Faisal Mahmud Sakib, Shampa, Mashfiqus Salehin","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100506","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100506","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Floods are among the most pervasive natural hazards, frequently causing loss of livelihoods, population displacement, and setbacks to socio-economic development. Anticipatory approaches such as Forecast-based Action (FbA) have gained prominence for reducing disaster impacts by enabling early interventions triggered by forecast information. At the same time, many countries operate social protection (SP) systems that provide ongoing support to vulnerable groups. In Bangladesh, where recurrent riverine floods coincide with widespread poverty, both FbA and SP mechanisms exist, yet their complementarities remain underutilized. This study investigates how FbA can be linked with government-led SP programs to strengthen anticipatory flood response, using evidence from Chilmari Upazila during the 2020 flood event. A mixed-methods design was employed, combining household surveys, focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and geospatial analysis. Findings indicate that 15–17 % of FbA beneficiaries were already included in SP programs such as Old Age, Widow, and Disability Allowances, suggesting potential for rapid targeting through established lists. However, more than 90 % of affected households were not covered, revealing significant gaps in outreach. The study highlights that integrating FbA with SP offers a practical, scalable pathway to institutionalize anticipatory action and enhance resilience in flood-prone contexts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"29 ","pages":"Article 100506"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145926177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0