Global Policy最新文献

{"title":"Can China Destabilize US Government Debt? The Biggest Threat Comes from within","authors":"Judith Arnal","doi":"10.1111/1758-5899.13488","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13488","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>China is the second-largest foreign holder of US government debt, after Japan. As of May 2024, China-based investors held $768.3 billion worth of US government debt. In recent years, however, Chinese investors have been reducing their holdings of US government debt. Despite the large figure, Chinese holdings represent only 9.6% of total foreign holdings, and less than 3% of total US public debt held by the public. This significantly reduces China's potential destabilizing power, especially since Chinese investors cannot entirely do without US government debt, widely used as collateral in financial transactions. However, this does not mean that the US is free from financial tensions. Surprisingly, these tensions would not be inflicted by any geopolitical adversary but rather by the US' own economic policies. Poor fiscal governance, combined with a high public debt ratio, large public deficits projected for the coming years, an economic strategy reliant on expansionary fiscal policies, and trade policies centered on tariffs, risks increasing the US' cost of borrowing in the short term. If the United States continues down this path of fiscal imbalances, a fiscal crisis could arise in the medium term, with significant implications for the international financial system. When it comes to financial stability in the United States, the biggest threat comes from within.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":51510,"journal":{"name":"Global Policy","volume":"16 2","pages":"341-347"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144118074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Global Seigniorage Duopoly","authors":"Francisco Rodríguez","doi":"10.1111/1758-5899.13489","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13489","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The inadequacy of global liquidity provision and the unequal distribution of its benefits stem from a fundamental distortion: the exercise of market power by the two largest issuers of international currencies. The United States and Europe jointly provide the currencies used for 79% of global reserves and 91% of trade invoicing, forming a duopoly in the means of payment used by the world economy. The exercise of this market power allows them to capture the bulk of seigniorage rents associated with the provision of global liquidity, while constraining developing countries' growth and limiting the scope of global countercyclical policies. This paper proposes aligning the issuance of special drawing rights (SDRs) with the growth of global reserve demand, as mandated by Article VIII (§7) of the International Monetary Fund's Articles of Agreement. This approach offers a politically feasible path to democratize global liquidity provision and provide developing countries with access to financing currently monopolized by advanced economies.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":51510,"journal":{"name":"Global Policy","volume":"16 2","pages":"319-328"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144117945","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The European Union and the pursuit of global governance in a multi-polar, fractured world","authors":"Nicholas Sowels,&nbsp;Maria C. Latorre,&nbsp;Jan Wouters","doi":"10.1111/1758-5899.13479","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13479","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;It is said that the liberal, rules-based international order that was constructed in the ‘West’ during the &lt;i&gt;Pax Americana&lt;/i&gt; following World War II, and which was successfully extended during the 1990s following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, is now seriously under threat—for many reasons. These include the war launched against Iraq in 2003 by the United States (US) and its allies; China's search for alternative institutions for international cooperation (via its Belt and Road Initiative and the expanding BRICS bloc); Russia's war against Ukraine since February 2022; the war in Gaza, Lebanon and to some extent, the West Bank, prosecuted by Israel in retribution for the 7 October 2023 Hamas attack; and last but not least, the re-election to the American Presidency of Donald Trump on 5 November 2024.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;To be sure, war and ‘eliminationist assaults’ (Goldhagen &lt;span&gt;2010&lt;/span&gt;)&lt;sup&gt;1&lt;/sup&gt; did occur repeatedly during the second half of the 20th century, sometimes led by the US and the Soviet Union (respectively, the wars in Vietnam and Afghanistan), sometimes as more local tragedies (like the exterminations of the Pol Pot regime in Cambodia during the 1970s or the Rwanda genocide in 1994). Nor was Europe entirely spared horror after 1945, as the collapse of Yugoslavia in the early 1990s brought with it ‘ethnic cleansing’, the Srebrenica Genocide and rape camps. Moreover, the Balkan wars led to a NATO bombing campaign against Serbia in 1999, to prevent Serbian assaults against the people of Kosovo. While this action was successful, it took place without a mandate by the United Nations (UN) Security Council and paved the way for further use of force in Iraq (2003) and Libya (2011).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Yet, despite all these serious violations of international law, it was thought by many through the 2010s that the international rules-based (liberal) order and global governance were still intact. So, it was with the European Union (EU or Union), which has been the most profound expression of this order, whereby nationalist and potentially bellicose rivalries are set aside and make way for cooperation and competition, framed within the rule of law, democracy and the respect of human rights, in the service of peace. This world seems now largely to be fading, which raises profound questions for the EU and its 27 Member States in pursuing international cooperation and about the very nature and identity of the Union itself.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;For the EU, the immediate threats it faces are substantially aggravated by the arrival of the second Trump administration in January 2025. During his election campaign, Donald Trump proposed significantly raising tariffs, widely flagged his lack of interest in NATO and reiterated his disdain for international institutions. A protectionist and isolationist America, deepening its confrontational relationship with China, raises fundamental challenges to the future of the EU, economically, militarily and geopolitically. It raises exis","PeriodicalId":51510,"journal":{"name":"Global Policy","volume":"15 S8","pages":"5-6"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1758-5899.13479","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143253371","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The European Union in its pursuit of being a global leader in climate neutrality","authors":"Olesia Tkachuk","doi":"10.1111/1758-5899.13480","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13480","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This contribution examines the most important actions taken by the European Union (EU) to improve the global climate. Positioning itself as a leader in climate action, the EU has adopted the European Green Deal (EGD) strategy, in which it has defined the long-term goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2050. Moreover, one of the aims of EU climate leadership is to influence external partners, which takes various forms (e.g., participation in conferences under the auspices of the United Nations, financial support for partner countries, and political dialog). However, the <i>soft power</i> instruments used by the EU to combat climate change are encountering a number of challenges conditioned by events both within the EU (e.g., farmers' protests) and outside its borders (e.g., Russian aggression against Ukraine). They require greater coordination and preventive efforts to reduce the impact of potential new crises and to strengthen the EU's strategic autonomy.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":51510,"journal":{"name":"Global Policy","volume":"15 S8","pages":"69-74"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1758-5899.13480","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143253389","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Metatechnological Mapping and the Ye Wenjie Effect: Mitigating Civilizational Vulnerabilities","authors":"Milan M. Ćirković","doi":"10.1111/1758-5899.13469","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13469","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In a widely cited study in this Journal, Nick Bostrom has posed the Vulnerable World Hypothesis (VWH): technological development, if occurring under conditions similar to those in the present, will make the devastation of civilization likely. In light of such drastic consequences, the hypothesis is worth serious discussion in both breadth and depth. Two related proposals are hereby made and justified: first, creating a metatechnological map (or “tech tree”) capable of telling in advance where exactly the dangerous technologies are, and second, reducing the size of the apocalyptic residual by antitotalitarian deradicalization and deprogramming. Both are modest proposals in the sense that they imply neither deep restructuring of human nature nor building instruments for potential totalitarian violations of civil rights and liberties.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":51510,"journal":{"name":"Global Policy","volume":"16 2","pages":"366-371"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144118003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Future of China-Gulf Solar and Wind Supply Chains","authors":"Li-Chen Sim,&nbsp;Steven Griffiths","doi":"10.1111/1758-5899.13478","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13478","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper examines the medium-term trajectory of China-Gulf renewable energy supply chains amid growing global trade restrictions on China. The research explores how the Arab Gulf states, key collaborators in China's renewable energy sector, navigate these challenges, focusing on the dominance of China in global supply chains for solar and wind components. Using a demand-pull, supply-push framework, qualitative analysis assesses two potential scenarios: ‘Blue Sky’, where China-Gulf supply chains grow stronger through ambitious renewable energy targets and expanded foreign direct investment, and ‘Sand Storm’, where geopolitical tensions and export restrictions could weaken these ties. The findings indicate that while supply chain engagement with China has risks, on balance China-Gulf supply solar and wind technology supply chains are currently robust and projected to remain so in the future. The study concludes with policy recommendations for strengthening China's engagement with the broader Global South, highlighting opportunities for countries as they scale up domestic renewable energy deployment.</p>","PeriodicalId":51510,"journal":{"name":"Global Policy","volume":"16 2","pages":"357-365"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1758-5899.13478","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144118088","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Internet Shutdowns, Sovereignty, and the Postcolonial State in Africa","authors":"Nicole Stremlau","doi":"10.1111/1758-5899.13483","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13483","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Despite strong international condemnation, there is growing acceptance of internet shutdowns as a legitimate response to online content that governments—particularly in Africa—find concerning. This article explores government decision-making around internet shutdowns during contentious periods such as elections and in situations of violent conflict. In arguing for a reading of shutdowns that goes beyond simply seeing them as a blunt tool of censorship, it discusses the underlying issues, including the vast inequalities between Big Tech companies based in the United States or China and resource-poor countries in the Global South. Building on this, the article probes the intensifying disputes around who writes the rules governing how social media companies address harmful content, how such rules are implemented, and, finally, what this means for the postcolonial state in Africa. In some contexts, a government's use of shutdowns represents an effort to reassert sovereignty amid a longstanding context of contestation around borders, power, and national identity.</p>","PeriodicalId":51510,"journal":{"name":"Global Policy","volume":"16 2","pages":"372-379"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1758-5899.13483","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144118174","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Measuring climate change from an actuarial perspective: A survey of insurance applications","authors":"Nan Zhou,&nbsp;José Luis Vilar-Zanón,&nbsp;Jose Garrido,&nbsp;Antonio José Heras-Martínez","doi":"10.1111/1758-5899.13465","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13465","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change refers to persistent alterations to global Earth's climate, such as a rise in global temperatures, which have reached unprecedented peaks in recent years. At the same time, global mean ocean-and-sea levels are on an upward trajectory. These climatic shifts significantly influence the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, heavy precipitations, droughts, floods, and tropical cyclones, which represent substantial risks and challenges for the insurance industry. This paper delves into the profound impact of climate change on the insurance sector, with a particular focus on the agriculture, property, health, and life insurance industries. Our scientific approach consists in measuring climate change through an index composed of a basket of climate and weather-related extremes, such as the Actuarial Climate Index™ (ACI) defined in and for North America, and its European counterparts, the Iberian ACI (IACI) and French ACI (FACI) climate indices. We discuss how these indices help quantify the impact of climate change on the balance sheets of insurance companies and, therefore, its impact on the sustainability of the insurance business. The paper underscores the pressing need for the insurance industry to adapt and strategically plan for the increasing risks associated with climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":51510,"journal":{"name":"Global Policy","volume":"15 S7","pages":"34-46"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1758-5899.13465","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142860322","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Economic, social and environmental sustainability in uncertainty times","authors":"María-Jesús Segovia-Vargas,&nbsp;María-del-Mar Camacho-Miñano","doi":"10.1111/1758-5899.13464","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13464","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper provides an introduction to this Special Issue on sustainability from different approaches. In a global situation of uncertainty due to wars, political conflicts, elections, social inequalities, and climate emergency, sustainability emerges as a potential solution. However, the pursuit of social, economic, and environmental sustainability is a complex task with many facets. Our contribution is multifaceted and ranges from insurance to zombie companies, climate change regulation, temporary trade measures, financial reporting transparency standards, earnings management, and social enterprises, among others. This introduction provides an overview of all the topics that we have covered as well as their main findings and implications.</p>","PeriodicalId":51510,"journal":{"name":"Global Policy","volume":"15 S7","pages":"4-7"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1758-5899.13464","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142860048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The EU's efforts to uphold the international rules-based order: Mission impossible?","authors":"Jan Wouters","doi":"10.1111/1758-5899.13467","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13467","url":null,"abstract":"<p>It is commonplace today to state that the international rules-based order is in decline, or at least severely under threat. The European Union has been a steadfast self-proclaimed defender of such order, with a strong commitment to multilateralism, the United Nations, and international law based on its founding treaties. This contribution asks how deep and consistent the EU's choice for multilateralism is and how the Union is coping with the challenges to the international rules-based order. It briefly inquires through what instruments, mechanisms, and tools the EU aims to live up to its commitment to multilateralism and to what extent the Union itself consistently respects international law. It ends with the question of how the EU can reinforce its multilateral commitment to the international rules-based order, in particular through the UN.</p>","PeriodicalId":51510,"journal":{"name":"Global Policy","volume":"15 S8","pages":"75-81"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1758-5899.13467","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143253707","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}