Global PolicyPub Date : 2026-09-07Epub Date: 2026-06-16DOI: 10.1111/1758-5899.70193
Adrino Mazenda
{"title":"Chinese Loans and Africa's Agricultural Investment: A Bayesian Multilevel Modelling Analysis","authors":"Adrino Mazenda","doi":"10.1111/1758-5899.70193","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.70193","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Chinese lending to Africa expanded substantially after 2000, with agriculture often presented as a strategic sector in China–Africa development cooperation. This study examined whether Chinese loans to African agriculture reflected a differentiated financing strategy or formed part of a broader development finance portfolio. Using the Chinese Loans to Africa (CLA) dataset (2000–2024), the analysis combined descriptive assessment with Bayesian multilevel modelling to examine loan allocation patterns, borrower structures, regional distribution and project composition. The findings showed that agricultural loans did not differ significantly from non-agricultural loans, with agricultural lending heavily concentrated in Southern Africa and focused largely on production-oriented investments such as farm schemes, fisheries infrastructure, mechanisation and irrigation. Larger loans were more frequently channelled through government-affiliated and non-sovereign entities than national governments. Interpreted through dependency and sustainable development perspectives, the findings suggested that Chinese agricultural lending followed a project-driven productive infrastructure logic rather than a distinct sector-transformative financing strategy, with implications for governance coordination, transparency and agricultural transformation in Africa.</p>","PeriodicalId":51510,"journal":{"name":"Global Policy","volume":"17 4","pages":"632-645"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2026-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1758-5899.70193","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148903713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Global PolicyPub Date : 2026-09-07Epub Date: 2026-07-15DOI: 10.1111/1758-5899.70201
Flavia Lucenti, Celeste Bonnamy, Thomas Christiansen, Ville Sinkkonen, Sophie Vanhoonacker
{"title":"‘Having Your (Digital) Cake and Eating It’: Reconciling EU Strategic Narratives on Connectivity and Autonomy","authors":"Flavia Lucenti, Celeste Bonnamy, Thomas Christiansen, Ville Sinkkonen, Sophie Vanhoonacker","doi":"10.1111/1758-5899.70201","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.70201","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article examines the EU's evolving narratives concerning the governance of digital technologies, focusing on the intersection of geopolitical challenges and internal policymaking through the lens of the strategic narratives approach. This compares two key EU narratives relating to digital policy: on the one hand, the narrative on ‘digital connectivity’ which advocates collaboration, engagement and market inclusion, and on the other hand, the more recent development of a defensive ‘digital sovereignty’ narrative emphasising the need for EU-based digital industries, diversified supply chains and reduced reliance on external powers. Through an analysis of the official documents, strategy papers, public speeches and legislative initiatives on digital policy launched by the EU during the term of the first von der Leyen's Commission (2019–2024), we highlight how these two narratives evolved to coexist, determining the EU's unique approach to digital governance. The paper finds that both narratives may be less incompatible than one would think at first sight. They have transformed over time, in response to the increase in geopolitical competition, reaching a point of convergence in the mid-2020s when the EU appeared to succeed in reconciling the contending aims of openness and autonomy in digital policy. The paper concludes with observations on the interplay between narrative constructions and the policymaking process and an outlook on the ongoing challenges confronting the EU.</p>","PeriodicalId":51510,"journal":{"name":"Global Policy","volume":"17 4","pages":"593-605"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2026-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1758-5899.70201","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148904173","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Global PolicyPub Date : 2026-09-07Epub Date: 2026-07-09DOI: 10.1111/1758-5899.70213
Mohammad Eslami
{"title":"Between Hedging and Bandwagoning: E3 and Iran's Nuclear Program From the JCPOA to the 2026 “Ramadan War”","authors":"Mohammad Eslami","doi":"10.1111/1758-5899.70213","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.70213","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article examines the evolution of the European Troika's narratives on Iran's nuclear program, from the aftermath of the JCPOA to the 2026 “Ramadan War.” Drawing on an analysis of 55 official statements by E3 leaders and diplomats, the study traces how the E3 shifted between a posture of normative hedging and one of bandwagoning. It identifies four critical phases: the hedging period following the US withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018; the erosion of diplomacy after the failure of INSTEX and the assassinations of General Qasem Soleimani and Professor Mohsen Fakhrizadeh; the post-2023 convergence, marked by the invocation of the snap-back mechanism and E3 support for US–Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear infrastructure in 2025; and finally, the post-2026 war period, in which the E3 reassesses the “Ramadan War” as unnecessary and reasserts elements of strategic autonomy. The article argues that the 2025 “12-Day War” served as a narrative turning point, collapsing the E3's strategic ambiguity and revealing a deeper structural alignment with US hard power. However, the 2026 “Ramadan War,” which demonstrated the ineffectiveness of military campaigns for nonproliferation, led the E3 to readjust its policy by stepping back and reducing its alignment with Washington's containment strategy.</p>","PeriodicalId":51510,"journal":{"name":"Global Policy","volume":"17 4","pages":"658-669"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2026-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1758-5899.70213","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148903805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Global PolicyPub Date : 2026-09-07Epub Date: 2026-04-20DOI: 10.1111/1758-5899.70171
Axel Marx, Sophia Simon, Philip De Man
{"title":"Multilateral Diplomacy of Small States and Sub-States. Applying Diverse Instruments for Thematic Diplomacy","authors":"Axel Marx, Sophia Simon, Philip De Man","doi":"10.1111/1758-5899.70171","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.70171","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>How do small states with limited capacity engage in a complex multilateral environment? This paper uses a case study approach to address this question, based on a thorough analysis of policy documents and more than 70 interviews with practitioners from 9 different countries and sub-state regions (Finland, Flanders [Belgium], the Netherlands, Slovenia, Catalonia [Spain], Denmark, Liechtenstein, Scotland [United Kingdom] and Singapore). The paper gathers unique insights into both the policy and practical side of diplomatic strategies in multilateral settings of a relevant cross-section of small multilateral players. The paper finds that small states primarily tend to adapt their diplomatic strategy in a changing global landscape based on thematic specialization and prioritization and deploy diverse diplomatic instruments to achieve their goals. The paper identifies a number of diplomatic instruments to shed light on how small players apply and sequence these instruments to formulate an overarching thematic strategy to more effectively take part in multilateral processes. Based on this analysis, the paper presents an analytic approach to analyzing the strategies of small states along three dimensions: substantive, procedural and temporal.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":51510,"journal":{"name":"Global Policy","volume":"17 4","pages":"579-592"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2026-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148904250","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Global PolicyPub Date : 2026-09-07Epub Date: 2026-04-15DOI: 10.1111/1758-5899.70167
Brendan Walker-Munro, Sascha-Dominik Dov Bachmann
{"title":"Universities as the Next Counterintelligence Battleground in Geopolitical Contests","authors":"Brendan Walker-Munro, Sascha-Dominik Dov Bachmann","doi":"10.1111/1758-5899.70167","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.70167","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Globally, universities are increasingly becoming the target of foreign national security actors, engaging in espionage, sabotage, foreign interference and intellectual property theft. Despite that, there has been no examination of the utilisation of counterintelligence approaches by universities to the threats they face from the subordination or manipulation of international collaboration and research partnerships. Tangentially, the concept of research security is underexplored in a global context, despite nations like Canada, the United Kingdom, United States and the European Union having introduced research security frameworks to manage risks to national security and the protection of sensitive information (particularly for places of higher education and learning). Likewise, there has been little focus on potential solutions or mitigations of the threats to national security which arise in higher education settings within the wider context of research security in the Higher Education domain. This article seeks to achieve two purposes. Firstly, to examine the current state of research security through the lens of counterintelligence studies, and to site research security within the current discourse by adopting Prunckun's grounded theory of counterintelligence. Secondly, to propose that universities will need to begin adopting and enacting counterintelligence programmes in their institutions as part of a wider institution-led move towards research security in Higher Education, while avoiding the negative drawbacks of the securitisation of academic freedoms and synergies. Failing to do so, we argue that the very spirit of academic freedom will be undermined, and the technologies and inventions which universities seek to pursue for the betterment of humanity will be diverted and subverted for nefarious or malicious purposes.</p>","PeriodicalId":51510,"journal":{"name":"Global Policy","volume":"17 4","pages":"734-743"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2026-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1758-5899.70167","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148903709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Global PolicyPub Date : 2026-09-07Epub Date: 2026-07-09DOI: 10.1111/1758-5899.70212
Erin Hannah, James Scott
{"title":"The Turning Point That Didn't Turn: WTO MC14 and the Future of Global Trade","authors":"Erin Hannah, James Scott","doi":"10.1111/1758-5899.70212","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.70212","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The fourteenth World Trade Organization (WTO) Ministerial Conference (MC14) in Yaoundé was widely framed as a pivotal moment for restoring momentum to a multilateral trading system in crisis. Drawing on participant observation and interviews conducted during the conference, this article argues that MC14 exposed both the limits of the WTO's current negotiating framework and the deeper geopolitical tensions reshaping global trade governance. Members failed to reach agreement on even modest outcomes, as divisions over state-led industrial policy, development and policy space intersected with efforts to update the rules. Disputes over the so-called E-Commerce Moratorium, the Investment Facilitation for Development Agreement and WTO reform reflect a broader struggle to reconcile a rules-based system designed for market economies with the realities of contemporary state capitalism. The analysis identifies deep divisions over foundational principles, particularly consensus decision-making, most-favoured nation treatment and development, alongside growing support for plurilateral approaches. MC14 did not mark the collapse of the WTO, but it did signal a transition towards variable geometry in global trade governance. The article concludes with policy recommendations aimed at stabilising the system while adapting it to new geopolitical and economic realities.</p>","PeriodicalId":51510,"journal":{"name":"Global Policy","volume":"17 4","pages":"695-702"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2026-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1758-5899.70212","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148903806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Global PolicyPub Date : 2026-09-07Epub Date: 2026-07-21DOI: 10.1111/1758-5899.70218
Morena Skalamera
{"title":"Beyond Dualism: EU Policy Toward Central Asia Through Decarbonization, Problem Linkage, and Civil Society Engagement","authors":"Morena Skalamera","doi":"10.1111/1758-5899.70218","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.70218","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Despite the large reappraisal of the EU's security and economic interests in Central Asia, its foreign policy impact has remained weak. This article develops a constructivist, multi-level framework to examine how European and Chinese approaches to decarbonization are translated into policy in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. I argue that the EU and China advance fundamentally different conceptions of decarbonization, yet neither approach determines outcomes directly. Rather, domestic civil society organizations, policymakers, and local institutions selectively appropriate, reinterpret, and contest these competing ideas in light of local developmental priorities. The article advances the concept of problem linkage, arguing that the EU's effectiveness depends on its ability to connect decarbonization with broader developmental, distributional, and social priorities that matter to Central Asian governments and civil society, rather than treating climate action as a stand-alone policy objective. By bringing everyday political economy into the study of climate diplomacy, the article demonstrates that decarbonization is not simply exported by major powers but co-produced through interactions between their priorities and local agency.</p>","PeriodicalId":51510,"journal":{"name":"Global Policy","volume":"17 4","pages":"723-733"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2026-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1758-5899.70218","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148904209","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Global PolicyPub Date : 2026-09-07Epub Date: 2026-04-28DOI: 10.1111/1758-5899.70169
Nora Kürzdörfer
{"title":"It's the Politics!—Global Trade Governance Beyond Technocracy","authors":"Nora Kürzdörfer","doi":"10.1111/1758-5899.70169","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.70169","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The World Trade Organization (WTO) struggles to respond to the growing entanglement of trade and geopolitics. Drawing on existing scholarship and 20 in-depth interviews with ambassadors and senior trade diplomats conducted in Geneva ahead of the 13th WTO Ministerial 2024, this article reveals a fundamental dilemma at the heart of contemporary trade governance. While the WTO remains institutionally anchored in a technocratic and market-oriented understanding of trade—treating political and security concerns as exceptional or external—its core functions are increasingly shaped by political contestation among members. The analysis argues that technocratic siloization, reflected in the separation of trade from security and foreign policy concerns, constrains the organization's ability to address geoeconomic developments. Major power rivalries, particularly between the United States and China, and persistent divisions between developed and developing countries, have contributed to decision-making paralysis and weakened judicial functions. Existing reform proposals largely focus on procedural fixes, while neglecting the underlying political drivers of institutional dysfunction. Amid persistent deadlock, some even call for replacing the WTO with an alternative organization. The article argues that safeguarding the WTO's relevance requires moving trade governance out of its technocratic silo by creating space for structured deliberation on the political dimensions of trade.</p>","PeriodicalId":51510,"journal":{"name":"Global Policy","volume":"17 4","pages":"703-713"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2026-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1758-5899.70169","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148904315","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Global PolicyPub Date : 2026-09-07Epub Date: 2026-04-16DOI: 10.1111/1758-5899.70161
Annika Stenström
{"title":"The Weaponization of ESG Infrastructures and the Future of Green Finance","authors":"Annika Stenström","doi":"10.1111/1758-5899.70161","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.70161","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The trillion-dollar green finance industry faces growing pushbacks from a range of actors. While criticisms vary—from portraying ESG as part of a “woke” agenda to highlighting risks of greenwashing—we now see mass departures from climate–finance initiatives, with asset managers coming under fire from regulators over ESG policies and activist shareholder groups pausing climate resolutions following investor hesitation. Taking stock of the current anti-ESG movement, this paper discusses how actors battle it out over ESG infrastructures that facilitate or hinder ESG investing. ESG infrastructures, such as reporting standards, investment practices, and financial regulation, function as the “plumbing” of financial markets. This paper presents illustrative vignettes drawn from recent empirical cases, such as regulatory interventions attempting to scale back sustainability reporting standards in the European Union and contestations over the boundaries of ESG engagement for shareholders in the United States. While ESG infrastructures can contribute to altering the power dynamics of climate-forcing and climate-vulnerable asset owners, they can also be weaponized by actors seeking to obstruct climate mitigation. Forms of weaponization can be noisy and public or quiet over technical definitions. I contrast the backlash in Europe and the United States, showing how different actors seek to weaponize ESG infrastructures.</p>","PeriodicalId":51510,"journal":{"name":"Global Policy","volume":"17 4","pages":"714-722"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2026-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1758-5899.70161","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148903841","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Global PolicyPub Date : 2026-09-07Epub Date: 2026-07-21DOI: 10.1111/1758-5899.70211
Ueli Staeger
{"title":"Symbolism and Substance: How Geopolitics, Organisational Design, and Continental Coherence Shape Africa's Multilateral Reform Aspirations","authors":"Ueli Staeger","doi":"10.1111/1758-5899.70211","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.70211","url":null,"abstract":"<p>What factors shape African agency in global multilateral reform processes? Rather than a supposed pawn of geopolitical competition, Africa's proactive diplomacy for multilateral reforms is garnering increasing interest. Yet we know surprisingly little about variation in the pursuit of African agency by the African Union (AU) and African Groups in different global multilateral negotiations. Amid growing frustrations over stalled multilateral reforms, rising geopolitical competition complicates the picture. It increases incentives for symbolic concessions to Africa, while simultaneously lowering great powers' readiness for substantial reforms. This article develops a theory of African agency in multilateral reform processes. Continental coherence of African actors, the (in)formal organisational design attributes of multilateral organisations, and the geopolitical permissibility of African reform demands shape the exercise of African agency. In particular, these three factors shape the interplay of symbolism and substance as co-constituted dimensions of African reform diplomacy. Through plausibility probes on United Nations Security Council reform and the AU's G20 membership, the paper finds that great powers' separation of symbolism and substance hinders Africa's reform ambitions. The article contributes to moving the study of African agency from a structurally deterministic approach to a relational and agentic account of African and global strategies in multilateral reforms.</p>","PeriodicalId":51510,"journal":{"name":"Global Policy","volume":"17 4","pages":"606-618"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2026-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1758-5899.70211","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148904222","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}