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Journal of Conflict Resolution最新文献

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Two Dilemmas in the Politics of Ethnic Federalism: Experimental Evidence From Ethiopia 民族联邦制政治中的两个困境：来自埃塞俄比亚的实验证据
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2026-02-19 DOI: 10.1177/00220027261427753
Braeden Davis, David Andres Dow, Jeremy Springman, Juan Fernando Tellez
{"title":"Two Dilemmas in the Politics of Ethnic Federalism: Experimental Evidence From Ethiopia","authors":"Braeden Davis, David Andres Dow, Jeremy Springman, Juan Fernando Tellez","doi":"10.1177/00220027261427753","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027261427753","url":null,"abstract":"Ethnic federalism, a system that devolves power to subnational states drawn along ethnic lines, is a widely debated approach to managing ethnic conflict. While scholars have studied its macro-level consequences, little is known about micro-level preferences within these countries. We examine two key dilemmas of ethnic federalism: (1) the “minorities within minorities dilemma”, where many ethnic group members live outside their designated state, and (2) the “devolution dilemma,” which concerns which powers should be held by the central versus state governments. Using survey experiments among Ethiopian university students, we find no average effect of changing power distributions on support for ethnic federalism, but substantial heterogeneity: politically and ethnically intolerant respondents respond strongly to devolving state power. We further find security policy is the primary concern in debates over devolution, followed by cultural policies. Our findings highlight the importance of micro-level perspectives in understanding the stability of ethnofederal systems and the political consequences of their reform.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"51 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146261178","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Seeing what Citizens Miss: How Monitors Improve Election Violence Reporting 看到公民错过了什么：监督人员如何改进选举暴力报道
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2026-02-16 DOI: 10.1177/00220027261424861
Leonardo R. Arriola, Arsène Brice Bado, Justine M. Davis, Allison N. Grossman, Aila M. Matanock
{"title":"Seeing what Citizens Miss: How Monitors Improve Election Violence Reporting","authors":"Leonardo R. Arriola, Arsène Brice Bado, Justine M. Davis, Allison N. Grossman, Aila M. Matanock","doi":"10.1177/00220027261424861","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027261424861","url":null,"abstract":"Documenting election violence is central to safeguarding electoral integrity, but collecting such data is difficult. While citizen crowdsourcing is often seen as a cost-effective alternative to traditional monitoring, we argue that monitors offer unique advantages through their training and insulation from local pressures. Our field experiment during Côte d’Ivoire’s 2020 presidential election assessed whether monitors enhance election violence documentation when used alongside citizen reporting. We found that the presence of a monitor increased the likelihood of violence being reported by 10.7 percentage points without affecting citizen behavior. Monitors with more geographic experience were more likely to report incidents, regardless of their proximity to their home communities. These findings highlight the importance of monitors in revealing latent violence and in enhancing the scope and depth of reports. This demonstrates the critical value of monitors, even as crowdsourced data become more prevalent.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146205152","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Poverty and Prejudice: Evidence From Myanmar 贫穷与偏见：来自缅甸的证据
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2026-02-12 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251411537
Constant Courtin, Gareth Nellis, Michael Weaver
{"title":"Poverty and Prejudice: Evidence From Myanmar","authors":"Constant Courtin, Gareth Nellis, Michael Weaver","doi":"10.1177/00220027251411537","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251411537","url":null,"abstract":"Does poverty drive prejudice? We study this question in Myanmar, a deeply divided society where anti-Muslim sentiment surged during a partial democratic transition in the mid-2010s. Drawing on theories of economic competition and scapegoating, we test whether material hardship predicts exclusionary attitudes using new data from a nationally representative survey of 22,000 adults belonging to the majority Buddhist group. We find a large and consistent association: both poorer individuals and poorer townships are more likely to express Islamophobia. This relationship persists when leveraging a plausibly exogenous income shock caused by severe flooding. Poverty is more predictive of anti-Muslim sentiment than key alternative explanations for intergroup animus. It also correlates with hostility toward other minorities (Hindus and Indians), indicating that poverty is tied to a more general tendency to denigrate outgroups. Our findings shed light on the economic foundations of polarized social preferences and may help identify communities at heightened risk of ethnoreligious conflict.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146160367","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Major Power Rivalry and Wedge Strategy of Concessions 大国竞争与楔子妥协战略
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2026-02-07 DOI: 10.1177/00220027261417327
Hankyeul Yang
{"title":"Major Power Rivalry and Wedge Strategy of Concessions","authors":"Hankyeul Yang","doi":"10.1177/00220027261417327","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027261417327","url":null,"abstract":"Military alliances are an important feature of major power competition. One way for a major power to increase its relative power is to drive a wedge in a rival’s alliance. Why and when does a major power do so? I propose a theory of strategic opportunity, which holds that a major power seeks to drive a wedge in the rival’s alliance by offering economic aid to a rival’s protégé when that country experiences a rapid deterioration in its relations with its patron. I test my theory on major power rivalry dyads and find empirical support for my argument on a set of directed dyad-year observations between 1960 and 2010. The findings contribute to our understanding of alliance politics and strategic considerations behind using economic carrots in major power rivalry.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146138273","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Shadow Wars in the Shadow of the Bomb: The Link Between Nuclear Weapons and Indirect Conflict 核弹阴影下的影子战争：核武器与间接冲突之间的联系
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2026-02-07 DOI: 10.1177/00220027261421160
Kyle Atwell, David C. Logan
{"title":"Shadow Wars in the Shadow of the Bomb: The Link Between Nuclear Weapons and Indirect Conflict","authors":"Kyle Atwell, David C. Logan","doi":"10.1177/00220027261421160","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027261421160","url":null,"abstract":"How do nuclear weapons affect interstate conflict? Empirical studies on this question have returned mixed results. We argue that these results are due to overlooking indirect conflicts, a distinct and prominent form of limited conflict. Expanding current datasets to account for both conflict intensity and directness provides new insights about interstate conflict. We investigate the relationship between nuclear weapons and conflict through a large-n analysis that includes a new indicator for indirect conflict. We find that state dyads which possess nuclear weapons are significantly more likely to engage in indirect conflict. The results suggest the importance of including measures of indirect conflict in future scholarship and the need for policymakers to prepare for increased instances of indirect conflict between major powers possessing nuclear weapons.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"132 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146138272","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Attitudes Towards Extremist Organizations in the United States 美国对极端组织的态度
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1177/00220027261421124
Joshua Alley, Layla Picard, Philip B. K. Potter
{"title":"Attitudes Towards Extremist Organizations in the United States","authors":"Joshua Alley, Layla Picard, Philip B. K. Potter","doi":"10.1177/00220027261421124","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027261421124","url":null,"abstract":"How do Americans view militant right-wing extremist organizations? We address this question using identical survey instruments that combine endorsement experiments and direct questions fielded in 2020 and 2022. Our design builds on established methodologies used to study attitudes toward militant organizations abroad. We find that consumption of right-wing media is strongly associated with less negative views of militant right-wing groups. We also document that public opinion toward these organizations became less negative over time, though the magnitude of this shift varies across groups.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"41 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146089857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Uncertainty, Information, and Risk in International Technology Races 国际技术竞赛中的不确定性、信息和风险
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231214996
Nicholas Emery-Xu, Andrew Park, Robert Trager
{"title":"Uncertainty, Information, and Risk in International Technology Races","authors":"Nicholas Emery-Xu, Andrew Park, Robert Trager","doi":"10.1177/00220027231214996","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027231214996","url":null,"abstract":"A formal model reveals how the information environment affects international races to implement a powerful, dangerous new military technology, which may cause a “disaster” affecting all states. States implementing the technology face a tradeoff between the safety of the technology and performance in the race. States face unknown, private, and public information about capabilities. More decisive races, in which small performance leads produce larger probabilities of victory, are usually more dangerous. In addition, revealing information about rivals’ capabilities has two opposing effects on risk: states discover either that they are far apart in capability and compete less or that they are close in capability and drastically reduce safety to win. Therefore, the public information scenario is less risky than the private information scenario except under high decisiveness. Finally, regardless of information, the larger the eventual loser’s impact on safety relative to the eventual winner’s, the more dangerous is the race.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145903651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Bombing of Hospitals and Rebel Responses in Civil War. Evidence from Syria 轰炸医院与内战中叛军的反应。来自叙利亚的证据
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251407077
Regine Schwab, Werner Krause, Samer Massoud
{"title":"The Bombing of Hospitals and Rebel Responses in Civil War. Evidence from Syria","authors":"Regine Schwab, Werner Krause, Samer Massoud","doi":"10.1177/00220027251407077","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251407077","url":null,"abstract":"Does targeting civilians suppress or intensify insurgent violence? Existing research presents contradictory findings, focusing primarily on direct civilian targeting. We examine how government attacks on civilian infrastructure – specifically medical facilities – affect rebel behavior. We argue that hospital bombings trigger rebel escalation through civilian pressure and reputation-seeking. Analyzing novel data on hospital attacks in northwestern Syria (2017-2020), we use matching methods combined with difference-in-differences estimation to assess effects on combat intensity. Distinguishing between rebel- and government-initiated fighting, we find that hospital attacks increase insurgent violence within one week. Interviews with medical workers, activists, and rebels confirm that hospital bombings intensify attacks through our hypothesized mechanisms. These findings demonstrate that infrastructure targeting backfires strategically, echoing broader evidence on punishment strategies’ limitations in counterinsurgency. Our results also highlight concerns about the erosion of legal norms protecting medical facilities and civilians in armed conflict.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145836062","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Military Insubordination and International Coercion 军事不服从与国际胁迫
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251410091
Md Muhibbur Rahman, Nazmus Sakib
{"title":"Military Insubordination and International Coercion","authors":"Md Muhibbur Rahman, Nazmus Sakib","doi":"10.1177/00220027251410091","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251410091","url":null,"abstract":"Do acts of military insubordination affect foreign aggression? We argue that mutiny makes a state more vulnerable to international coercion. Mutinies help foreign adversaries differentiate weak targets from strong ones by “affecting” and “revealing” states’ war-fighting costs and resolve. They disrupt the military command structure, thereby increasing the costs of organizing a well-coordinated defense against foreign threats. They also make deterrence posturing less effective by signaling a weakened resolve that sets the stage for the mutiny. Using time-series-cross-sectional data from 1945 to 2014, we show that mutiny (a) increases the likelihood of the state being targeted in a militarized interstate dispute, and (b) decreases the likelihood of its resistance once the MID is initiated. The paper advances our understanding of how civil-military relations affect states’ external threat environment. It also underscores the dynamic role of private information in international conflict processes.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145836061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Impact of Terrorism on Democratic Support in Africa 恐怖主义对非洲民主支持的影响
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251409402
Souleymane Yameogo, Anja Neundorf
{"title":"The Impact of Terrorism on Democratic Support in Africa","authors":"Souleymane Yameogo, Anja Neundorf","doi":"10.1177/00220027251409402","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251409402","url":null,"abstract":"How does chronic terrorism affect support for democracy in fragile states? While most research examines isolated attacks in stable democracies, little is known about persistent violence in insecure, weakly institutionalised contexts. This paper addresses that gap by analysing Africa, where terrorism is widespread and democratic transitions remain incomplete. Using Afrobarometer survey data matched with terrorism events, we employ an entropy balancing strategy within an unexpected-event-during-survey (UESD) design to estimate causal effects. We find that terrorism consistently undermines democratic support – especially in countries with stronger liberal institutions and lower development. Younger and older citizens are particularly susceptible to attitudinal shifts. These findings highlight how terrorism’s political impact hinges not just on exposure, but also on broader structural vulnerabilities shaped by institutions, development, and demography. The study advances theories of authoritarian reflex and threat perception, offering new insights into sustaining democracy amid chronic insecurity.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"587 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145808067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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