Credibility, Organizational Politics, and Crisis Decision Making

IF 2.2 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Don Casler
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

When and why do foreign policy officials believe that it is important to fight for credibility? Conventional wisdom suggests that policymakers tend to care uniformly about how others perceive them. Yet this logic overlooks substantial variation in how officials prioritize credibility when weighing policy options. I argue that organizational identity affects the dimensions of credibility that policymakers value and their preferences on the use of force. Diplomats see the world from a reputational perspective, whereas military officials do so through the lens of military capabilities. During crises, diplomats match their advice to reputational considerations, while military officials attend to available capabilities. I examine these propositions via an original, vignette-based elite experiment involving over 250 U.S. national security officials and analysis of historical elite survey data. The findings demonstrate that where you sit shapes when you want to fight for credibility.
可信度、组织政治和危机决策
外交政策官员何时以及为何认为争取信誉很重要?传统智慧认为,政策制定者往往会一视同仁地关注他人对自己的看法。然而,这种逻辑忽略了官员在权衡政策选择时如何优先考虑公信力的巨大差异。我认为,组织认同会影响决策者所重视的公信力维度以及他们对使用武力的偏好。外交官从声誉的角度看世界,而军事官员则从军事能力的角度看世界。在危机期间,外交官的建议与声誉方面的考虑相匹配,而军事官员则关注可用的能力。我通过一个原创的、基于小故事的精英实验来研究这些命题,实验涉及 250 多名美国国家安全官员,并分析了历史精英调查数据。研究结果表明,当你想为信誉而战的时候,你所处的位置会对你产生影响。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.30
自引率
9.70%
发文量
101
期刊介绍: The Journal of Conflict Resolution is an interdisciplinary journal of social scientific theory and research on human conflict. It focuses especially on international conflict, but its pages are open to a variety of contributions about intergroup conflict, as well as between nations, that may help in understanding problems of war and peace. Reports about innovative applications, as well as basic research, are welcomed, especially when the results are of interest to scholars in several disciplines.
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