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Journal of Conflict Resolution最新文献

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Citizen Action and Elite Responses: Opposition Mass Movements and Regime Change From Within, 1900–2019
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-02-10 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251318938
Vilde Lunnan Djuve, Carl Henrik Knutsen
{"title":"Citizen Action and Elite Responses: Opposition Mass Movements and Regime Change From Within, 1900–2019","authors":"Vilde Lunnan Djuve, Carl Henrik Knutsen","doi":"10.1177/00220027251318938","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251318938","url":null,"abstract":"The mobilization of opposition mass movements may spur regime change via different processes, including popular revolutions or coups. We zoom in on one salient channel through which mass mobilization may induce regime change, namely via provoking incumbent responses. Synthesizing different arguments, we detail how incumbent elites sometimes preemptively alter the regime to diffuse threats by incumbent-guided democratization or by using opposition mobilization as windows of opportunity to transform the regime into one they prefer over the status quo (e.g., via self-coups). We combine data on opposition campaigns with detailed data on modes of regime breakdown and find that, overall, sustained mass movements are clearly associated with subsequent incumbent-led transitions. When disaggregating, violent movements typically precede only non-liberalizing transitions. In contrast, nonviolent movements are associated with all incumbent-led transitions, including democratizing ones. Thus, nonviolence is a key component in many successful campaigns for democracy, also absent full-fledged revolutions.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143385415","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Nationality Questions and War: How Ethnic Configurations Affect Conflict Within and Between States
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-01-29 DOI: 10.1177/00220027241312624
Lars-Erik Cederman, Yannick I. Pengl, Dennis Atzenhofer, Luc Girardin
{"title":"Nationality Questions and War: How Ethnic Configurations Affect Conflict Within and Between States","authors":"Lars-Erik Cederman, Yannick I. Pengl, Dennis Atzenhofer, Luc Girardin","doi":"10.1177/00220027241312624","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027241312624","url":null,"abstract":"It is generally accepted that violations of state-nation congruence can cause conflict, but it remains unclear which configurations cause civil and interstate conflict, and how these conflict types interact. Inspired by Myron Weiner’s classical model of the “Macedonian Syndrome,” we propose an integrated theoretical framework that links specific nationality questions to both conflict types. Using spatial data on state borders and ethnic settlements in Europe since 1816, we show that excluded and divided groups are more likely to rebel and, where they govern on only one side of the border, to initiate territorial claims and militarized disputes. To make things worse, rebellion and interstate conflict reinforce each other where ethnic division coincides with partial home rule. We obtain similar findings for civil wars and territorial claims in a global sample post-1945. Yet governments shy away from engaging in interstate disputes to address nationality questions and instead support ethnic rebels abroad.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"53 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143056195","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does Peacekeeping Mitigate the Impact of Aid on Conflict? Peacekeeping, Humanitarian Aid and Violence Against Civilians
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-01-24 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251315668
Shenghao Zhang, Han Dorussen
{"title":"Does Peacekeeping Mitigate the Impact of Aid on Conflict? Peacekeeping, Humanitarian Aid and Violence Against Civilians","authors":"Shenghao Zhang, Han Dorussen","doi":"10.1177/00220027251315668","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251315668","url":null,"abstract":"Peacekeeping has been found to be effective in containing conflict and civilian victimization, while the findings for the effect of aid on violence are indeterminate. So far the effects of peacekeeping and aid on violence have mainly been studied separately, this article investigates, at the subnational level, the effect of humanitarian aid on one-sided violence conditional on the deployment of peacekeeping forces. Although humanitarian aid can occasionally exacerbate violence, it is argued that peacekeepers reverse this unintended consequence of the provision of aid. We argue that they do so by means of sharing information and the provision of security bubbles. Empirically, we look at the coincidence of subnational location of humanitarian agencies and peacekeeping troops and find support for the idea that the effect of aid on violence against civilians is conditional on the presence of peacekeepers.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143026648","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Legacies of Past and Present Violence: Evidence From Mosul, Iraq 过去和现在暴力的遗产：来自伊拉克摩苏尔的证据
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-01-23 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251315561
Sam Whitt, Vera Mironova, Douglas Page
{"title":"Legacies of Past and Present Violence: Evidence From Mosul, Iraq","authors":"Sam Whitt, Vera Mironova, Douglas Page","doi":"10.1177/00220027251315561","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251315561","url":null,"abstract":"Scholars are increasingly drawing attention to the societal consequences of conflict-related violence. What remains unclear is the interplay between short-term and long-term legacies of wartime traumas. We consider the case of Mosul, Iraq, a setting in which inhabitants have experienced wide-ranging victimization during both recent and historical contexts. In a 2022 survey, we inquired across a broad range of self-reported conflict experiences involving personal and kinship-based victimization including physical and sexual violence, property destruction, forced imprisonment, and displacement as a result of ISIS occupation. We also probed for victimization dating back to the Iran-Iraq War. Examining altruism toward other ISIS victims in a dictator game, we find that while ISIS-related victimization increases out-group empathy and reduces in-group bias in altruism, earlier conflict experiences exert independent influence as well. We consider the implications of our findings for conflict research involving multiple layers and sources of trauma and victimization.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143020486","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Weapons of the Weak: Technological Change, Guerrilla Firepower, and Counterinsurgency Outcomes 弱者的武器：技术变革、游击火力和平叛结果
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-01-10 DOI: 10.1177/00220027241310378
Costantino Pischedda, Mauro Gilli, Andrea Gilli
{"title":"Weapons of the Weak: Technological Change, Guerrilla Firepower, and Counterinsurgency Outcomes","authors":"Costantino Pischedda, Mauro Gilli, Andrea Gilli","doi":"10.1177/00220027241310378","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027241310378","url":null,"abstract":"What explains counterinsurgency outcomes? Existing scholarship points to characteristics and strategies of incumbents and insurgents but neglects the role of insurgents’ weapons. Some studies discuss the effects of the firepower of insurgents relative to incumbents. Focusing on relative firepower, however, is problematic given the asymmetric nature of guerrilla warfare, with insurgents eschewing decisive engagements where incumbents would bring to bear their material superiority. We turn the spotlight, instead, on guerrilla firepower, i.e., insurgents’ absolute ability to inflict casualties on incumbents using small arms in hit-and-run attacks. We argue that technological innovations dating to the mid-19th century sowed the seeds for cumulative increases in lethality of insurgents' small arms – the standard tools of guerrilla warfare – over the following 150 years, enhancing tactical effectiveness of hit-and-run attacks and thus insurgents’ prospects of strategic success. Statistical analysis of novel data on guerrilla firepower in counterinsurgency campaigns from 1800 to 2005 corroborates our argument.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"45 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142961432","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Peace Negotiations and Civilian Targeting 和平谈判和以平民为目标
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-01-06 DOI: 10.1177/00220027241308270
Ipek Ece Sener
{"title":"Peace Negotiations and Civilian Targeting","authors":"Ipek Ece Sener","doi":"10.1177/00220027241308270","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027241308270","url":null,"abstract":"Does the participation of armed actors in peace talks influence their strategy of targeting civilians? I argue that before peace talks belligerents have incentives to demonstrate their military strength and respect for humanitarian standards to international third parties. Thus, they are more likely to spare civilians and discriminately target enemy combatants before international talks. Using change point analysis and surrogate data testing on the daily casualty and territorial control data for the Syrian Civil War, I show that belligerents engaged in negotiations incite more combatant and fewer civilian casualties in the enemy territory immediately before an international meeting is to be held. These findings underscore that international parties can drive combatants to avoid civilian victimization before peace talks by offering them a seat at the negotiation table.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"42 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142929474","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Crises and Negotiations in Mutual Interventions 相互干预中的危机与谈判
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2024-12-23 DOI: 10.1177/00220027241309299
Allard Duursma, Henning Tamm
{"title":"Crises and Negotiations in Mutual Interventions","authors":"Allard Duursma, Henning Tamm","doi":"10.1177/00220027241309299","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027241309299","url":null,"abstract":"Why do states that simultaneously support rebel groups in each other’s intrastate conflicts enter negotiations to resolve such mutual interventions? This is an important question, as negotiations between interveners typically lead to negotiated settlements, which in turn tend to make their intrastate conflicts far less deadly. We argue that international crises make negotiations more likely. Crises raise the costs of intervention and often lead potential mediators to put pressure on states to negotiate. Using new monthly data on mutual interventions in Africa, the article shows that crises are indeed significantly associated with the likelihood that negotiations will occur. This finding is robust to using fixed effects and matching. The article contributes to the literature by investigating a widespread though little-studied type of conflict, as well as by studying the impact of state leaders’ crisis perception using a quantitative research design, which helps overcome a methodological limitation seen in previous studies.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"128 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142874089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dovish Hawks: How Leaders’ Combat Experience Influences the End of Civil Conflicts in Peace Agreements 鸽派鹰派：领导人的战斗经验如何影响和平协议中国内冲突的结束
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2024-12-23 DOI: 10.1177/00220027241309284
Juliana Tappe Ortiz
{"title":"Dovish Hawks: How Leaders’ Combat Experience Influences the End of Civil Conflicts in Peace Agreements","authors":"Juliana Tappe Ortiz","doi":"10.1177/00220027241309284","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027241309284","url":null,"abstract":"Who are the leaders who end civil wars through peace agreements? I theorize that the prior combat experience of a state leader is an important life experience with direct relevance for how leaders evaluate conflict outcomes. Combat experience increases sensitivity to human losses and gives the state leader a hawkish reputation, increasing internal support, boosting their risk-tolerance, and convincing the rebel leader to take the leader seriously. Using a nested research design, I show that civil wars are more likely to terminate in peace agreements when the leader in charge knows the battlefield. I supplement the quantitative analysis of all state leaders in civil conflicts from 1989 to 2015 with a qualitative pathway case of Indonesia’s President Yudhoyono. These findings expand upon insights on leaders’ attributes indicating that prior combat experience has different effects on potential conflict outcomes in intrastate than in international wars.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"279 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142874091","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Law Behind Dispute Onset: How Legal Uncertainty Drives Maritime Boundary Disputes 争端发生背后的法律：法律不确定性如何推动海洋边界争端
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2024-12-06 DOI: 10.1177/00220027241305076
Umut Yüksel
{"title":"The Law Behind Dispute Onset: How Legal Uncertainty Drives Maritime Boundary Disputes","authors":"Umut Yüksel","doi":"10.1177/00220027241305076","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027241305076","url":null,"abstract":"The making of international law through multilateral conventions and adjudication often leads to periods of legal uncertainty, times in which there are alternative rules and divergent views on how they ought to be applied to particular cases. I argue that legal uncertainty gives states opportunities and incentives to formulate excessive unilateral claims, thus making disputes more likely to arise. I illustrate my argument with a comprehensive analysis of maritime boundary disputes in the aftermath of the Second World War. In this period, the law regulating maritime boundary-making has been marked by varying degrees of uncertainty due to different rules and interpretations proffered by various multilateral and judicial lawmaking attempts. I find strong evidence that high legal uncertainty is associated with an increased probability of dispute onset. The analysis calls for an important rethinking of the impact of legalization on international affairs, both in maritime boundary-making and in other issues areas.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"135 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142789877","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Voter Intimidation as a Tool of Mobilization or Demobilization? Evidence from West Bengal, India 选民恐吓是动员还是遣散的工具？来自印度西孟加拉邦的证据
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2024-12-04 DOI: 10.1177/00220027241298890
Ursula Daxecker, Annekatrin Deglow, Hanne Fjelde
{"title":"Voter Intimidation as a Tool of Mobilization or Demobilization? Evidence from West Bengal, India","authors":"Ursula Daxecker, Annekatrin Deglow, Hanne Fjelde","doi":"10.1177/00220027241298890","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027241298890","url":null,"abstract":"This study presents new theory and evidence on the repertoire of electoral intimidation, suggesting that threats can be used to deter rival party supporters from voting but also to mobilize citizens to vote for a particular party. We expect these strategies to unfold in the same electoral context, but differ in targeting and incidence; while threats to demobilize are concentrated in closely contested areas and occur more frequently overall, threats to mobilize target fewer voters and are centered in parties’ own strongholds. Recognizing the difficulty of surveying citizens about sensitive experiences, we combine qualitative material from local news with evidence from a list experiment embedded in an original survey conducted after the 2019 elections in the Indian state of West Bengal. Our empirical findings corroborate our expectations: areas without overt violence may nevertheless be highly coercive, underlining the importance of studying the full repertoire of electoral violence.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"215 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142776389","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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