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Economic Theory of Alliances: Sixty Years Later 联盟的经济理论：六十年后
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-07-15 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251359626
Todd Sandler, Justin George
{"title":"Economic Theory of Alliances: Sixty Years Later","authors":"Todd Sandler, Justin George","doi":"10.1177/00220027251359626","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251359626","url":null,"abstract":"The main purpose of this retrospective of the economic theory of alliances is to characterize three basic paradigms: purely public deterrence, spatial connectivity, and joint products. For each model, allies’ military expenditure (ME) responds differently to the aggregate ME of the other allies, known as defense spillins, thereby resulting in diverse burden sharing, allocative implications, membership composition, and institutional recommendations. The underlying theoretical models determine reduced-form equations for allies’ interdependent defense demands. We examine how changes in strategic doctrines, weapons technology, enemy threats, and membership composition affected NATO burden sharing and its allocative efficiency over time. Generally, changes that increase the share of excludable defense benefits possess a better prognosis for burden sharing and allocative efficiency. Principles and insights from the economic theory of alliances are related to defense demands at the operational level and for non-NATO alliances.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144629814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Institutionalized but Under Implemented: Factors Affecting Women’s Inclusion in Peace Negotiations Between 1975 and 2020 制度化但执行不力：1975年至2020年期间影响妇女参与和平谈判的因素
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-07-15 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251355747
Miriam J. Anderson, Brian R. Urlacher, Liam Swiss
{"title":"Institutionalized but Under Implemented: Factors Affecting Women’s Inclusion in Peace Negotiations Between 1975 and 2020","authors":"Miriam J. Anderson, Brian R. Urlacher, Liam Swiss","doi":"10.1177/00220027251355747","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251355747","url":null,"abstract":"The Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) agenda has achieved global prominence. Yet, women’s participation in peace negotiations remains rare, and little is known about which factors facilitate their inclusion. Quantitative scholarship has been hampered by incomplete data, drawing almost exclusively from prominent negotiations where agreements were reached. To address this shortcoming, we introduce a novel dataset comprising 267 dyadic negotiations between 1975 and 2020. We find two distinct pathways to women’s representation. First, representation in government and rebel negotiating delegations is linked to higher rates of women’s participation in rebel group leadership, higher levels of feminist mobilization, and the presence of a WPS National Action Plan. Second, representation in civil society delegations correlates to international mediation and higher levels of women’s representation in parliament. These findings suggest that the norm of women’s inclusion continues to face barriers that can be overcome by a particular combination of actors and domestic commitments.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144640045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Long Shadow of COVID-19 Lockdowns on Nonstate Actor Violence COVID-19封锁对非国家行为者暴力的长期影响
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-07-03 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251353078
Dawn Brancati
{"title":"The Long Shadow of COVID-19 Lockdowns on Nonstate Actor Violence","authors":"Dawn Brancati","doi":"10.1177/00220027251353078","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251353078","url":null,"abstract":"Early studies of the effects of COVID-19 lockdowns on nonstate actor violence presented competing hypotheses and yielded mixed results. Economic arguments primarily claimed that lockdowns would increase violence and implied that their effects would last after lockdowns were lifted. Conversely, logistical arguments claimed that lockdowns would decrease violence and that their effects would endure only as long as lockdowns were in place. Using new, more precise, and comprehensive data and measures, this study directly compares these competing arguments globally. The study finds that both economic and logistical factors affected violence and that violence was lower overall in the short and long term. Logistical factors potentially outweighed economic ones due to the inability of nonstate actors to capitalize fully on the negative economic effects of lockdowns when population movements were disrupted. The study also disaggregates the economic effects of lockdowns, finding the strongest support for state capacity-based arguments.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"100 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144565720","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
When Fairness is Unfair: Norm Abandonment in Bargaining and Its Implications for Peace Negotiations 当公平是不公平的：讨价还价中的规范放弃及其对和平谈判的启示
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-07-03 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251356643
Vinh Pham, Linjia Jiang, Yoshio Kamijo
{"title":"When Fairness is Unfair: Norm Abandonment in Bargaining and Its Implications for Peace Negotiations","authors":"Vinh Pham, Linjia Jiang, Yoshio Kamijo","doi":"10.1177/00220027251356643","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251356643","url":null,"abstract":"Fairness perceptions can significantly impact the instigation and resolution of conflicts. To examine how fairness norms shape agreements, we conduct an experiment, where participants first select a preferred rule between equal division, equal gain, and proportional division. When paired with another sharing the same norm, participants decide whether to adhere to the projected division or negotiate a different outcome. Experimental results reveal that participants renege on the agreement more frequently when allocations are perceived as unfair to the self: high contributors in equal division and low contributors in proportional division. Furthermore, attachment to the initial norm is sturdiest for strict equality and weakest for proportionality. Equal gain, coinciding with the Nash bargaining solution, is the most favored at both preselection and negotiation outcomes. We discuss several applications of our findings in resolving international conflicts.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144566514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Living in Fear? Political Violence and Authoritarian Attitudes Among Politicians in South Africa 生活在恐惧中？南非政治家中的政治暴力和专制态度
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251353717
Sarah Lockwood, Philip Martin
{"title":"Living in Fear? Political Violence and Authoritarian Attitudes Among Politicians in South Africa","authors":"Sarah Lockwood, Philip Martin","doi":"10.1177/00220027251353717","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251353717","url":null,"abstract":"Do elected representatives become more authoritarian when violence against politicians is made salient? Many states are beset by politician-directed violence, but we know little about the consequences of such violence for democratic politics. In this paper we use a pre-registered survey experiment to investigate whether raising the salience of violence against politicians influences authoritarian attitudes among local councillors in South Africa. We find that councillors prompted to think about politician-directed violence are significantly more likely to adopt authoritarian attitudes. We also find strong heterogeneous treatment effects by political party, with the strongest effects among opposition party members. Unlike members of the nationally dominant African National Congress (ANC), opposition councillors appear to interpret politician-directed violence as a signal of systemic corruption, leading them to prioritize re-establishing order. Our findings have important implications for understanding the effects of violence on political elites and the determinants of authoritarianism.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144513243","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Signaling Strength Through Power Sharing 通过功率共享的信令强度
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251355757
Jacque Gao, Marton Szabo
{"title":"Signaling Strength Through Power Sharing","authors":"Jacque Gao, Marton Szabo","doi":"10.1177/00220027251355757","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251355757","url":null,"abstract":"This article develops a new theory of how a strong target regime can (partially) deter a sender from imposing sanctions over major issues. We develop a formal theoretic framework to show that, following a sender’s sanction threat, a strong target regime can signal its strength by deliberately weakening itself through always sharing power with a domestic opposition, while a weak target regime mixes between sharing and not sharing power with the opposition. The strategy offers the sender a better assessment of a target’s strength, enabling it to adjust its sanction policy accordingly and avoid the costs of a potentially ineffective sanction over a strong target regime. As a result, a strong target regime will be sanctioned with a lower probability than a weak one.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144513254","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Insurgency, Border Contiguity, and Social Conflict in Neighbor Countries 邻国的叛乱、边境邻近和社会冲突
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-06-21 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251353772
Kaderi Bukari, Ore Koren
{"title":"Insurgency, Border Contiguity, and Social Conflict in Neighbor Countries","authors":"Kaderi Bukari, Ore Koren","doi":"10.1177/00220027251353772","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251353772","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates how an insurgency in one state can intensify social conflict in a bordering state, focusing on the 2015 Burkina Faso insurgency and its impacts on northern Ghana. Building on past research, we theorize four pathways that can link insurgency to social conflict across the border. We use a mixed-methods approach, combining synthetic control models, fixed-effects panel data analyses, and extensive fieldwork across multiple communities, and find clear support for two pathways: insurgents using Ghana as a place for obtaining resources and diverted security forces creating vacuums exploited by bandits. The findings show that research and policy should consider more the interaction across multiple types of violence and varied geopolitical spaces in other susceptible world regions.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144334899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Impact of Natural Disasters on the Ongoing Civil War: The Role of Spatial Configuration of Territorial Control 自然灾害对持续内战的影响：国土控制空间格局的作用
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-06-06 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251346912
Wangyin Zhao
{"title":"The Impact of Natural Disasters on the Ongoing Civil War: The Role of Spatial Configuration of Territorial Control","authors":"Wangyin Zhao","doi":"10.1177/00220027251346912","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251346912","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding how natural disasters impact ongoing civil wars is increasingly important as more extreme weather events are expected due to climate change. Existing literature suggests that there is substantial unexplained variation in the consequences of natural disasters for conflict. I present a theoretical model, which provides insights into how the pre-disaster spatial configuration of territorial control can moderate the impact of natural disasters on conflict dynamics. Investigating these insights empirically, I introduce a new measure of natural disasters based on precipitation data, which improves geographical precision and mitigates endogeneity concerns in existing literature. Using the ongoing civil war between the New People’s Army (NPA) and the Philippine government as a testing ground, results show that the impact of natural disasters on both shifts in territorial control and battle-related violence varies by the pre-disaster spatial configuration of territorial control.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144236920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Religiosity, Political Tolerance, and Willingness to Reconcile in Post-conflict Contexts: Evidence From Colombia 冲突后背景下的宗教信仰、政治宽容和和解意愿：来自哥伦比亚的证据
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-06-05 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251331887
Juan Federico Pino Uribe, Johanna Amaya-Panche, Nathalie Méndez Méndez, Andrés Casas Casas
{"title":"Religiosity, Political Tolerance, and Willingness to Reconcile in Post-conflict Contexts: Evidence From Colombia","authors":"Juan Federico Pino Uribe, Johanna Amaya-Panche, Nathalie Méndez Méndez, Andrés Casas Casas","doi":"10.1177/00220027251331887","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251331887","url":null,"abstract":"This article examines the role of religiosity in shaping people’s willingness to reconcile with ex-combatants in post-conflict societies, using Colombia as a case study. Drawing on LAPOP survey data from 2014 to 2018, the study employs linear and logistic regression models to reveal that individuals tend to be less willing to reconcile when they have high levels of religiosity (LAPOP 2004–2021). However, this relation can be mitigated by an individual’s level of political tolerance, which fosters greater openness to support reconciliation despite strong religious convictions.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"52 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144218674","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Disaggregating Defection: Dissent Campaign Strategies and Security Force Disloyalty 分解叛逃：异议运动策略和安全部队的不忠
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-06-04 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251348389
Marianne Dahl, Mauricio Rivera Celestino, Scott Gates
{"title":"Disaggregating Defection: Dissent Campaign Strategies and Security Force Disloyalty","authors":"Marianne Dahl, Mauricio Rivera Celestino, Scott Gates","doi":"10.1177/00220027251348389","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251348389","url":null,"abstract":"Extant research posits that nonviolent campaigns increase security force defection during dissent, thereby improving their success rates over violent campaigns. Yet empirical evidence remains limited and mixed. We argue that this is partly due to overly aggregated measures of disloyalty that mask important variation. To address this, we disaggregate security force disloyalty both theoretically and empirically. We contend that nonviolent and violent strategies impose distinct costs on security forces—related to repression, fighting, and exit—which shape the likelihood of different forms of disloyalty. Our findings reveal that nonviolent campaigns are more likely to trigger large-scale loyalty shifts, but their effects are confined to specific types of disloyalty. Specifically, nonviolent strategies increase the likelihood of shirking, vocal support for opposition campaigns or criticism of the regime, and withdrawal of regime support. By contrast, desertion and side-switching are more likely during violent campaigns.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"331 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144218673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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