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Journal of Conflict Resolution最新文献

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Ethnic Accommodation and the Backlash From Dominant Groups 民族和解与优势群体的反弹
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-05-23 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251343836
Andreas Juon
{"title":"Ethnic Accommodation and the Backlash From Dominant Groups","authors":"Andreas Juon","doi":"10.1177/00220027251343836","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251343836","url":null,"abstract":"When does the accommodation of subordinate ethnic groups generate a backlash from the politically dominant group? I argue that power-sharing, regional autonomy, and multiculturalism lend themselves to the articulation of grievances and fears among members of dominant groups, especially if they explicitly recognize subordinate groups’ collective identities. In turn, nationalist parties can exploit such sentiment to organize protests, incite violence, and increase their electoral prospects. To test these arguments, I combine new monthly data on ethnic accommodation in 125 multi-ethnic electoral regimes between 1990 and 2018 with information on dominant group mobilization in anti-government protests and communal violence. I find systematic increases in dominant group mobilization around times when group-based accommodation is first introduced or expanded. These results enhance our understanding of mass mobilization by dominant ethnic groups. Moreover, they point to concrete proposals to reap the benefits of ethnic accommodation while avoiding a potentially destabilizing backlash against it.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"56 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144133734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Knowing What We Don’t: The Fundamental Problem of Data Quality in Conflict Research—and Methodological Solutions 知道我们不知道什么：冲突研究中数据质量的基本问题和方法论解决方案
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-05-16 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251325877
Rachel Sweet
{"title":"Knowing What We Don’t: The Fundamental Problem of Data Quality in Conflict Research—and Methodological Solutions","authors":"Rachel Sweet","doi":"10.1177/00220027251325877","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251325877","url":null,"abstract":"Conflict researchers face an unresolved dilemma: the underlying data are often unreliable. When it comes to covert relationships, killings, and illicit markets that organized violence entails, there are simply more incentives to alter information than to tell it straight. How confident can scholars be that on-the-ground events, rather than strategic or omitted information, drive research findings? Despite the evident need for accurate views into clandestine processes, existing work rarely applies systematic checks to verify the seeming “facts” of conflict. This article proposes a methodological toolkit to fill this gap. A first step develops systematic checks to report numerical credibility scores of source quality and corresponding error estimates. A second leverages data of varied strengths for distinct purposes: high-quality sources to triangulate facts and low-quality data to discern strategic images and mis/disinformation. The article tests these standards against major datasets and integrates the protocols into an interactive Data Evaluation Dashboard available for scholarly and policy use.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"96 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144067143","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Effect of Reciprocity on Trust: International Cooperation and COVID Aid 互惠对信任的影响：国际合作与抗疫援助
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251342144
Andrew Roskos-Ewoldsen, Morgan Ellithorpe, Brandon J Kinne
{"title":"The Effect of Reciprocity on Trust: International Cooperation and COVID Aid","authors":"Andrew Roskos-Ewoldsen, Morgan Ellithorpe, Brandon J Kinne","doi":"10.1177/00220027251342144","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251342144","url":null,"abstract":"Reciprocity is a well-known influence on international cooperation. However, we lack an explanation for how reciprocity at the international level affects individual beliefs and attitudes. How do people interpret situations where countries return favors, or fail to? In this study, we present a micro-level explanation of reciprocity based on the theoretical framework of Unbounded Generalized Reciprocity, where reciprocity operates as an informational shortcut about the trustworthiness of others. In an experimental survey of US adults, we test the roles of exposure to between-country reciprocity, perceived similarity, and costliness on trust toward a counterpart country, using the context of cooperation during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that reciprocity, compared to a reciprocity violation, predicted significantly more trust, and this was not moderated by similarity or costliness. We interpret these results as supporting evidence that reciprocity, at the individual-level, acts as a heuristic tool for determining the trustworthiness of other countries.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143945747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Model of Long-Term Conflict Resolution and Cooperation 长期冲突解决与合作模式
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-05-10 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251338841
David A. Peterson, Mirta Galesic, Ross A. Hammond
{"title":"A Model of Long-Term Conflict Resolution and Cooperation","authors":"David A. Peterson, Mirta Galesic, Ross A. Hammond","doi":"10.1177/00220027251338841","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251338841","url":null,"abstract":"The formal end of a political conflict does not always create lasting peace, as interpersonal violence can persist for years or decades after large-scale hostility ends. A key question for policymakers and peace builders, then, is how interventions into situations of low social capital might resolve persistent interpersonal conflicts sustained through complex networks of interaction. Existing approaches to this question generally focus on the small-scale effects of interventions like peace education that seek to change the attitudes of a few individuals at a time. Less focus has been paid to how such programs could leverage social networks to have broader effects on society as a whole. This paper explores this scale effect by building a conceptual agent-based model of conflict resolution and cooperation to examine when new ideas introduced by peace builders might spread throughout a population. We find significant benefits to layering different kinds of programs on the same populations, with the goal of leveraging the structure of society to maximize intervention impact.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"126 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143932548","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Selling Violent Extremism 贩卖暴力极端主义
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-05-09 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251329598
Danny Klinenberg
{"title":"Selling Violent Extremism","authors":"Danny Klinenberg","doi":"10.1177/00220027251329598","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251329598","url":null,"abstract":"Why do people join domestic violent extremist organizations? This paper examines an understudied reason: organizational outreach. I study how the inflow of new members to the Oath Keepers, until recently America’s largest paramilitary organization, changes when the group’s leadership employs three tactics: showcasing their ideological zeal through armed standoffs with the government, membership discounts, and sports sponsorships. Using a variant of the synthetic control method, I find that standoffs increase new memberships by 150 percent, discounts increase new memberships by over 60 percent, and sports sponsorships <jats:italic>decrease</jats:italic> new memberships. Membership is less responsive in counties with higher income inequality, but more responsive in politically conservative counties. The findings provide new insights into ways extremist groups attract potential recruits.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143930774","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On Nuclear Superiority and National Security 论核优势与国家安全
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-05-03 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251338457
Alexandre Debs
{"title":"On Nuclear Superiority and National Security","authors":"Alexandre Debs","doi":"10.1177/00220027251338457","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251338457","url":null,"abstract":"Does nuclear superiority improve national security? The Theory of the Nuclear Revolution (TNR) argues that it does not, but only after assuming that the nuclear balance is irrelevant militarily. Critics argue that it does, pointing at U.S. efforts to achieve nuclear superiority in the Cold War, when the nuclear stalemate was less stable than previously thought. Yet Washington could have been misguided. I offer a game-theoretic model where the nuclear balance matters militarily, perhaps allowing an escape from the nuclear stalemate, and show that greater nuclear capabilities unambiguously improve security under narrow circumstances. If they improve first-strike advantages or if the nuclear stalemate is fragile, they may improve peaceful terms, but only by raising the risk of disaster. I discuss the implications of this argument for our understanding of the U.S. nuclear policy in the Cold War.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"54 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143902930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Crises and Consequences: The Role of U.S. Support in International Bond Markets 危机与后果：美国对国际债券市场的支持作用
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-03-26 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251327970
Lauren L. Ferry, Patrick E. Shea
{"title":"Crises and Consequences: The Role of U.S. Support in International Bond Markets","authors":"Lauren L. Ferry, Patrick E. Shea","doi":"10.1177/00220027251327970","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251327970","url":null,"abstract":"Sovereign default should theoretically lead to creditor punishment through higher borrowing costs or market exclusion. However, empirical evidence shows that punishment is inconsistent across defaulters. We argue that this disconnect can be explained by examining the role of geopolitical relationships, particularly with the United States. US support conditions expectations of both borrowers and creditors by providing a fiscal cushion and subsidized insurance. This dynamic incentivizes riskier financial behavior, increasing default likelihood. Paradoxically, post-default US support signals a greater ability to pay, reducing creditors’ incentives to punish. Using data on commercial defaults from 1970 to 2012, we find that states with higher levels of US support are more likely to restructure their debts. After restructuring, these states face lower borrowing costs and experience shorter periods of exclusion from bond markets. Our findings contribute to our understanding of the complex interplay between geopolitics and sovereign debt.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143712925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Secessionism and Wartime Sexual Violence 分裂主义和战时性暴力
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-03-19 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251321756
Changwook Ju
{"title":"Secessionism and Wartime Sexual Violence","authors":"Changwook Ju","doi":"10.1177/00220027251321756","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251321756","url":null,"abstract":"Sexual violence (SV) in secessionist conflicts reflects distinct political intentions behind rebels’ pursuit of statehood and incumbents’ commitment to territorial integrity. I argue that, compared with their counterparts in non-secessionist conflicts, (1) secessionist rebels are more motivated to eschew SV to garner domestic support and international recognition, while (2) central governments are more incentivized to employ SV to repress and discourage secessionist endeavors. I further theorize that, in secessionist conflicts relative to non-secessionist conflicts, (3) rebel-perpetrated SV is more likely to go unreported, whereas (4) state-perpetrated SV is less likely to go unreported, primarily because of secessionist rebels’ legitimacy-seeking and international actors’ disproportionate attention to heavy-handed state SV. Zero-inflated ordered probit analysis strongly supports these differential implications of secessionist strife for rebel and state SV and the reporting thereof. The theoretical and empirical contributions presented in this article enrich both our understanding of wartime SV and broader conflict studies.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143661255","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Decision Making on the World Court: Are International Judges Geopolitically Biased? 国际法院的决策：国际法官是否具有地缘政治偏见？
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-03-15 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251326576
Arthur Dyevre
{"title":"Decision Making on the World Court: Are International Judges Geopolitically Biased?","authors":"Arthur Dyevre","doi":"10.1177/00220027251326576","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251326576","url":null,"abstract":"Do international adjudicators align with the foreign policy interests of their home country? This article contributes new evidence that judges on the International Court of Justice (ICJ) diverge along similar lines as their home states in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). Ideal points for judges and countries are estimated from nonunanimous judicial votes up to January 2023 using Item Response Modelling and then related to country ideal points estimated from UNGA votes in earlier research. The analysis reveals that, as with countries in the UNGA, a pro-anti-Western divide order constitutes the main dimension of disagreement on the Court. Moreover, ideal points derived from UNGA voting patterns are themselves robust predictors of voting affinity among judges as well as between judges and the parties involved in litigation. Judges originating from nations exhibiting greater geopolitical divergence are more likely to disagree. Just as judges from more pro-Western states are less likely to favour anti-Western litigant states.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"102 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143631321","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Multidimensional Identity Cleavages and Religious Discrimination 多维身份分裂和宗教歧视
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-03-13 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251324465
Nikola Mirilovic, Ariel Zellman, Jonathan Fox
{"title":"Multidimensional Identity Cleavages and Religious Discrimination","authors":"Nikola Mirilovic, Ariel Zellman, Jonathan Fox","doi":"10.1177/00220027251324465","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251324465","url":null,"abstract":"To what extent does minority distinctiveness from the majority mitigate or exacerbate discrimination? Similarities between majority and minority groups may reduce societal and political discrimination. Yet shared identities along one cleavage coupled with distinctive characteristics along another may also render commonalities salient for inter-group competition and conflict. We examine how cross-cuttingness of group-level religious identity with ethnicity, geographic concentration, and economic class influences societal religious discrimination (SRD) and governmental religious discrimination (GRD) against religious minorities at the state level. We find that greater cross-cuttingness of religion and ethnicity leads to decreased SRD and GRD. Yet while more cross-cutting geographic distributions of religious groups correlate with lower SRD and higher GRD, greater economic cross-cuttingness between religious groups correlates with higher SRD and lower GRD. These findings offer a nuanced theoretical and empirical bridge to understand discrimination, as social and political behaviors between individual expressions of societal prejudice and intergroup violent conflict.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143607830","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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