Signaling Strength Through Power Sharing

Abstract

This article develops a new theory of how a strong target regime can (partially) deter a sender from imposing sanctions over major issues. We develop a formal theoretic framework to show that, following a sender’s sanction threat, a strong target regime can signal its strength by deliberately weakening itself through always sharing power with a domestic opposition, while a weak target regime mixes between sharing and not sharing power with the opposition. The strategy offers the sender a better assessment of a target’s strength, enabling it to adjust its sanction policy accordingly and avoid the costs of a potentially ineffective sanction over a strong target regime. As a result, a strong target regime will be sanctioned with a lower probability than a weak one.