Ecological Modelling最新文献

{"title":"Assessment of the sustainable development status of districts and counties in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration","authors":"Rui Huang ,&nbsp;Qing Huang ,&nbsp;Prajal Pradhan ,&nbsp;Yixuan Wang ,&nbsp;Klaus Hubacek","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111191","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111191","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Assessing the sustainable development status at the subnational level is essential for accelerating the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) during the second half of the 2030 Agenda. However, there are significant gaps in SDG assessment at the county scale and in comparative studies between different counties. In this study, the sustainable development status of counties at the administrative scale in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration (YRDUA) was evaluated on the basis of localized SDG data. Our results revealed that from 2015 to 2021, the sustainable development status of districts and counties in the YRDUA gradually increased. Nevertheless, the distribution of the development status was uneven across these districts and counties. The sustainable development status of districts and counties in the eastern coastal region was greater than that in the western region. These differences were mainly due to a combination of interregional and intraregional variations. Compared with those in county-level cities and municipal districts, there were greater synergies among indicators in ordinary counties. This finding is related to the relatively balanced distribution of resources, relatively harmonized policy implementation and more consistent socioeconomic development needs in ordinary counties. However, the trade-offs among indicators in county-level cities were relatively noticable, suggesting a need for comprehensive and systematic assessments when formulating policies. The governments of county-level cities should optimize resource allocation, enhance environmental regulation, and promote multi-goal coordination. Our scenario simulation results revealed that promoting sustainable development in ordinary counties, especially those in Anhui Province, could facilitate balanced achievement of the SDGs in the YRDUA. Therefore, support should focus more notably on ordinary counties in Anhui Province by increasing infrastructure construction, such as transportation, energy, and communications, and promoting the equalization of public service resources to effectively enhance their sustainable development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"507 ","pages":"Article 111191"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144099770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fluctuations in real population sizes: Mathematical modeling and estimation of demographic parameters","authors":"Oksana Revutskaya ,&nbsp;Galina Neverova ,&nbsp;Efim Frisman","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111175","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111175","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study proposes an approach for estimating the demographic parameters of stage structure of real populations on the basis of their total population size, providing a useful tool for managing species abundance dynamics. To estimate the parameters, we use a transformation from discrete-time two-component models of structured populations to delay-difference equations that depend on the total population size. The two-component model assumes that at the beginning of each breeding season, the population comprises two cohorts: a younger group of juveniles and an older group of mature individuals. Population growth is regulated either by constraining fertility or by limiting the juvenile survival. The proposed approach was tested using available data on the population dynamics of fur-bearing animals in the Jewish Autonomous Region of the Russian Far East. The analyzed species include the squirrel, mountain hare, Manchurian hare, raccoon dog, and Siberian weasel. Their offspring reach reproductive maturity by the next breeding season. The estimates obtained via the proposed approach generally fall within biologically meaningful parameter ranges and reflect population dynamics similar to those observed in nature. In summary, this approach enables the analysis and modeling of population stage structure, as well as the estimation of demographic coefficients using the total size data of the population.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"507 ","pages":"Article 111175"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144106764","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling rodent population and pathogen dynamics in agricultural environments: Assessing the impact of control strategies on disease transmission","authors":"Marina Voinson ,&nbsp;Bram Vanden Broecke ,&nbsp;Herwig Leirs ,&nbsp;Vincent Sluydts","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111168","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111168","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rodents pose a major challenge to livestock farms by causing structural damage and serving as reservoirs and carriers of pathogens that threaten both animal and human health. With increasing restrictions on rodenticide use, there is a critical need to understand how alternative rodent management strategies influence the dynamics of rodent-borne diseases. In this study, we develop a novel model that integrates rodent population dynamics within agricultural environments (e.g., pig and poultry farms) with pathogen transmission characterized by different life histories (e.g., long-lasting vs. short-lived immunity, direct vs. indirect transmission). Our model is informed by experimental data to realistically capture rodent and pathogen dynamics and to evaluate the relative effectiveness of different management interventions. Specifically, we assess the impacts of sanitation, culling, and fertility control strategies on both rodent populations and pathogen prevalence. Our framework integrates diverse pathogen life histories and explicitly links management interventions to their effects on both disease dynamics and rodent populations within a specific agricultural context. Our results show no substantial differences between direct and environmentally transmitted pathogens. However, farm sanitation was the most effective strategy when the pathogen elicited long-lasting immunity, while culling was effective when immunity was short-lived. Overall, our findings underscore the importance of considering both pathogen life history and host population dynamics when designing sustainable and effective rodent management strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"507 ","pages":"Article 111168"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144088944","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Research on ecosystem service value and landscape ecological risk prediction and zoning: Taking Fujian province as an example","authors":"Fan Wang ,&nbsp;Yun Wu ,&nbsp;Yao Zhang ,&nbsp;Jiawei Wang ,&nbsp;Zhijie Xue ,&nbsp;Xin Tan ,&nbsp;Wen Jia","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111173","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111173","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rapid urbanization drives urban expansion while threatening sustainable development through declining ecosystem service value (ESV) and rising ecological risk (ERI). This study developed an integrated SD-PLUS model combining historical analysis and future projections to evaluate ESV-ERI dynamics, establishing ecological zoning frameworks with policy implications. Using Fujian Province as a testbed, we established a Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario through historical pattern extrapolation, compliant with EEA technical guidelines to create a policy-neutral baseline. This framework enables quantitative evaluation of anthropogenic regulation effects and early identification of ecological risk thresholds. Our simulations reveal over 15 years, construction land expanded by 48% (1757.42 km²), primarily through forest and farmland conversion. ESV showed initial growth followed by decline, exhibiting southeast-northwest spatial gradients (lower SE, higher NW). Conversely, ERI progressively increased with medium-high risk transitions, displaying inverse spatial concentration (high SE, low NW). Model validation showed strong performance with SD prediction errors &lt;5% and PLUS simulations achieving Kappa=0.90/accuracy=0.94, confirming SD-PLUS effectiveness in land change modeling. Spatial analysis identified four functional ecological zones: 1) expanding strict control zones (high ERI), 2) key control zones showing initial expansion then contraction, 3) stable general control zones, and 4) continuously shrinking ecological protection zones (high ESV). These findings enable targeted spatial governance by aligning economic development with ecological conservation priorities. The integrated methodology provides policymakers with a scientifically robust framework for balancing urban growth with ecosystem preservation, particularly valuable for rapidly developing regions facing similar sustainability challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"507 ","pages":"Article 111173"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144088945","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Predicting biological control performance under global change using model-based exploration of predator-prey dynamics: application to the Nesidiocoris tenuis - Tuta absoluta system","authors":"Isabelle Grechi ,&nbsp;Mame Diarra Bousso Ba ,&nbsp;Philippe Correa ,&nbsp;Massamba Diakhaté ,&nbsp;Thibault Nordey ,&nbsp;Serigne Sylla ,&nbsp;Thierry Brévault ,&nbsp;Anaïs Chailleux","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111186","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111186","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global change is disrupting our knowledge of ecosystem functioning through climate warming and pest invasion, affecting predator-prey population dynamics. We hypothesized that the control of invasive pests by native predators would decrease with increasing temperatures. We investigated the effects of high temperatures jointly with other factors related to biological control conditions (i.e., habitat complexity reflected by predator searching efficiency, predator-to-prey ratio, and relative timing of species establishment) on predator-prey population dynamics for the zoophytophagous and generalist mirid bug, <em>Nesidiocoris tenuis</em>, and the tomato leaf miner, <em>Tuta absoluta</em>, a native insect predator and an invasive insect pest, respectively, in Senegal. We carried out life history trait measurements in the laboratory at different temperatures (i.e., constant temperatures of 25, 30, 35, 40, and 45 °C and temperatures of 40:35 °C alternating following the light and dark cycle). We developed a stochastic individual-based model to simulate predator and prey population dynamics. Both species were able to complete their life cycle until 35 °C and until 40 °C when the night temperature decreased to 35 °C, while populations persisted over time only at 25 and 30 °C. Contrary to our expectations, pest control increased with temperature due to a higher predation efficiency and asymmetries between insect fitness responses to temperature in favor of the predator. Our study showed that populations of <em>T. absoluta</em> would not increase at high temperatures, either due to successful control by <em>N. tenuis</em> at 30 °C or due to a population collapse at 35 °C and beyond, as <em>T. absoluta</em> approaches its critical thermal maximum. At a temperature less favorable for pest control (25 °C), the timing of predator and pest establishment was the main factor determining the performance of pest control. Control was ensured when the predator established before or close to pest infestation. This can occur with generalist predators that can survive by feeding on alternative resources.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"507 ","pages":"Article 111186"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144083757","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How well do SDMs calibrated at large extents predict distribution in sub-areas: A case study","authors":"Moritz Fallgatter,&nbsp;Stefan Dullinger,&nbsp;Karl Hülber,&nbsp;Dietmar Moser,&nbsp;Norbert Helm,&nbsp;Kryštof Chytrý,&nbsp;Johannes Hausharter,&nbsp;Johannes Wessely","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111170","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111170","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurately capturing the realized niches of species is essential for applying species distribution models (SDMs), for example in conservation planning. Therefore, SDMs are typically calibrated over large spatial extents to avoid niche truncation but subsequently applied to distinguish suitable from unsuitable habitats within much smaller areas. However, model accuracy is commonly only assessed at the full calibration range, and whether the reduction of extent between calibration and projection areas reduces model accuracy has rarely been systematically evaluated. In this case study, we calibrated SDMs for 16 alpine plant species by relating occurrence records from across the European Alps to six topo-climatic predictors at a spatial resolution of 100 × 100 m. We then projected the species’ distributions across the Alps and compared the accuracy achieved at the extent of the Alps to the one achieved within three individual mountain landscapes. Projection accuracy for individual mountains differed strongly, ranging from projections even slightly more accurate than for the entire Alps to those much less accurate. The drop in projection accuracy between the extent of the Alps and the individual mountains increased with the dissimilarity of the niche realized by a species on a particular individual mountain as compared to the one realized at the extent of the Alps. Thus, full-extent accuracy metrics can be strongly misleading for smaller-extent applications. We recommend that such applications should be accompanied by a careful evaluation of the niche realized by species at both extents. If sufficient data are available at both extents, combining models calibrated at both scales, as recently suggested, appears a particularly promising approach.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"507 ","pages":"Article 111170"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144088943","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modelling forest-atmosphere exchanges of carbon and water using an improved hydro-biogeochemical model in subtropical and temperate monsoon climates","authors":"Wei Zhang ,&nbsp;Xunhua Zheng ,&nbsp;Siqi Li ,&nbsp;Shenghui Han ,&nbsp;Chunyan Liu ,&nbsp;Zhisheng Yao ,&nbsp;Rui Wang ,&nbsp;Kai Wang ,&nbsp;Xiao Chen ,&nbsp;Guirui Yu ,&nbsp;Zhi Chen ,&nbsp;Jiabing Wu ,&nbsp;Huimin Wang ,&nbsp;Junhua Yan ,&nbsp;Yong Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111174","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111174","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Forest-atmosphere carbon exchanges are crucial yet challenging to quantify accurately due to scaling uncertainties in site observations. Process-based models that mechanistically represent coupled carbon, nitrogen, and water cycling processes are theoretically capable of reducing uncertainties in forest carbon flux quantification, thereby improving predictions of multiple ecosystem variables relevant to achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030. Thus, we enhanced the CNMM-DNDC model by developing a forest-specific growth module incorporating key processes (photosynthesis, allocation, respiration, mortality, litter decomposition) based on Biome-BGC formulations. Compared with the original model, evaluation against 8-year (2003–2010) eddy covariance data from three Asian forests showed significant improvements in the updated model. At daily and annual scales, normalized root mean square error decreased by 46% and 54% for gross primary productivity (GPP), and 65% and 37% for ecosystem respiration (ER), respectively, though net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange (NEE) improvements were less pronounced due to error offsetting. Sensitivity analysis identified specific leaf area, fraction of leaf nitrogen in Rubisco and annual leaf and fine root turnover fraction as most influential eco-physiological parameters, with solar radiation, humidity and air temperature as dominant meteorological drivers. The model’s ability to capture daily and inter-annual carbon flux variations demonstrates its potential for regional-to-global greenhouse gas assessments, while highlighting the need for component-specific validation to avoid error masking in net flux calculations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"507 ","pages":"Article 111174"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144071540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrating functional connectivity and habitat stability into fish habitat assessment and optimizing ecological operation","authors":"Shiwei Yang ,&nbsp;Tao Yang ,&nbsp;Ruifeng Liang ,&nbsp;Yuanming Wang ,&nbsp;Kefeng Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111189","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111189","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the development of society and the growing demand for an energy transition, the scale and installed capacity of hydropower have been steadily increasing. However, this has led to a series of ecological and environmental issues, with threats to fish habitats caused by hydrological alterations being particularly significant. Habitat assessment can be used to effectively identify the impacts of hydraulic projects on ecosystems, particularly with respect to ecological flows and ecohydrological characteristics. The current methods of ecological flow determination focus solely on habitat area while overlooking habitat connectivity. Additionally, the identification of ecohydrological characteristics is based entirely on hydrological data, neglecting habitat stability. We selected the large national spawning ground downstream of the Xiangjiaba (XJB) hydropower station and the protected fish species <em>Myxocyprinus asiaticus</em> (<em>M. asiaticus)</em> as research subjects and incorporated functional connectivity and habitat stability into a fish habitat assessment model. Functional connectivity of habitat patches was evaluated using circuit theory, and habitat stability under flow variations was assessed through overlap rate. By simulating the habitat distribution and variations under various flow scenarios, we identified the suitable ecological flow range as 2205–2695 m³/s. The optimal daily flow variation range was determined to be -41.8 to 53.1 m³/s, with the extreme range of -137.3 to 171.8 m³/s. On the basis of these habitat requirements, we proposed an optimized ecological operation scheme. Compared with actual operations, in the minimum ecological deviation scenario, power generation is reduced by only 0.44 %, and the degree of ecological flow deviation is considerably decreased by 43.47 %. Moreover, the optimized scheme yields a stable and suitable flow lasting for one month, which is conducive to promoting the spawning and reproduction of <em>M. asiaticus</em>. The findings and framework presented in this study provide valuable guidance for reservoir management and assessments of watershed ecology.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"507 ","pages":"Article 111189"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144070023","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Recommendations for estimating and detecting time-varying spawner-recruit dynamics in fish populations","authors":"Catarina Wor ,&nbsp;Dan A. Greenberg ,&nbsp;Carrie A. Holt ,&nbsp;Brendan Connors ,&nbsp;Megan L. Feddern ,&nbsp;Cameron Freshwater ,&nbsp;Gregory L. Britten ,&nbsp;Mackenzie Mazur","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111159","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111159","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Models that account for time-varying dynamics are increasingly used in population assessments in recognition of changing biological and environmental conditions. We performed a systematic simulation analysis based on a semelparous life history to evaluate the performance of various Ricker spawner-recruit models including stationary, random-walk, and regime shift models, that offer various interpretations of time-varying dynamics. Estimation models that allowed parameters to vary following random-walks tended to perform equally well or outperform regime shift and stationary models. However these results were not consistent across all scenarios examined. We also evaluated the performance of model selection criteria commonly used to identify time-varying processes. Both likelihood based model selection criteria (AICc and BIC) and cross-validation methods (LFO) were found to be unreliable, with a few exceptions. Changes in productivity were more identifiable than changes in capacity or both parameters, which were often indiscernible from stationary dynamics. The results were sensitive to the magnitude of parameter change and extent of residual variability (unexplained error), with greater changes and lower error being easier to accurately estimate and select. Given this context dependence for the accuracy of parameter estimates with time-varying models, and unreliable nature of selection criteria, we recommend that analysts conduct case-specific simulation-evaluations when model choices may have important and divergent management implications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"507 ","pages":"Article 111159"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143942611","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Improving species distribution models by optimising background points: Impacts on current and future climate projections","authors":"Armand Rausell-Moreno ,&nbsp;Núria Galiana ,&nbsp;Babak Naimi ,&nbsp;Miguel B. Araújo","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111177","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111177","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Species Distribution Models (SDM) are often fit using presence-background data due to the lack of reliable absence records. To calibrate these models, background records are required, yet the optimal number of records and if they should be proportional to study area or the number of occurrences remains uncertain. This study addresses three key questions: (i) how does varying background proportions affect predictive accuracy? (ii) How do background proportions influence future species distribution projections under climate change? and (iii) should the number of background records be determined based on study region size or presence record availability? To investigate these questions, we simulated 280 virtual species distributions worldwide under present and future climate conditions. Model outputs were evaluated against simulated “true” distributions under both present and future scenarios. Results indicate that sampling background records proportional to either presence points or study area yields comparable average performance. Optimal performance occurred with a 0.5–1 ratio of background records to presence points when sampled proportionally to presences, and with approximately 5 % of the study area sampled when proportional to region size. Species prevalence also modulated the optimal presence-background ratio. Increasing the number of background records across suitable and unsuitable areas had contrasting effects for both strategies tested, emphasizing the need to assess model performance separately for both. Notably, background proportions influenced baseline predictions but had minimal impact on future projections, where niche-related variables dominated model performance. These findings offer practical insights for SDM practitioners. Adjusting background sampling strategies enhances current prediction accuracy, while future projections remain robust across different sampling approaches, ensuring more reliable modelling outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"507 ","pages":"Article 111177"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143942610","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}