Ecological Modelling最新文献

{"title":"A systematic review of urban ecological resilience: Emerging frontiers in process-oriented metabolic research","authors":"Yining Gao ,&nbsp;Yan Zhang ,&nbsp;Dongxiao Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111319","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111319","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Under the dual pressures of climate change and intensified socioeconomic activities, enhancing the resilience of vulnerable urban ecosystems has become critical for sustainable development. Originating from ecological resilience theory, urban ecological resilience has progressively evolved toward dynamic, composite, and process-oriented dimensions. While current research focuses on its conceptual framework, assessment methodologies, and mechanism analysis of urban ecological resilience, a systematic synthesis of the leading and popular research topics is lacking. Therefore, grounded in ecological resilience theory, this study systematizes the conceptual development of urban ecological resilience through holisticand process-oriented lenses, while critically reviewing contemporary evaluation approaches, operational mechanisms, and resilience enhancement paths derived from empirical cases. We find that the conceptual evolution of urban ecological resilience aligns with Kuhn's paradigm cycle, where paradigm shifts have facilitated the development of dimensional frameworks for resilience quantification and mechanism analysis. Future research should prioritize process-oriented approaches in the evaluation and mechanism analysis of urban ecological resilience and systematically integrate resilience metrics into ecological risk assessment frameworks. Such advancements will enable the transition from passive resilience responses to proactive, process-based regulation paradigms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111319"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145060600","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling assessment of carrying capacities of kelp and bivalve polyculture bay based on ecological model","authors":"Xuehai Liu ,&nbsp;Xuelei Zhang ,&nbsp;Shang Chen ,&nbsp;Xinming Pu ,&nbsp;Dapeng Qu ,&nbsp;Zongjun Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111343","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111343","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Large-scale, high-density mariculture has developed rapidly, and assessing its carrying capacity (CC) is important for sustainable development. Taking Sanggou Bay (China), a typical kelp-bivalve polyculture bay, as the study area, we develop an ecological model that incorporates the effects of aquaculture on hydrodynamic-biochemical processes and establish the CC model based on the food-balance relationship, so as to assess the CC of kelp and bivalve and determine reasonable culture densities. By incorporating the momentum loss caused by aquaculture, we achieve modeling hydrodynamic processes in culture waters. This shows that aquaculture alters the vertical structure of water-currents and significantly reduces the water-exchange ability (the bay’s half-exchange duration is ∼16 d with bivalve-kelp cultures and ∼7 d without aquaculture). The model reflects aquaculture’s impact on the ecosystem and reproduces ecological characteristics, including a weak phytoplankton biomass peak in February and the highest peak in September (3.7 μg/L on average). We estimate the CC in the kelp culture zone to be 3.84 ind/m² and propose maintaining the stocking density at 4 ind/m². We present the dynamic variations of bivalve CCs for different specifications. The CC of scallops is low in spring and summer, reaching its lowest in mid-April. The annual average CC for the mean size is 53 ind/m² (35,333 ind/acre), and the density of 59 ind/m² should not be exceeded. The CC of oysters is low in summer, reaching a minimum in late August. The theoretical capacity of the mean oyster is 76 ind/m² and we propose maintaining a density of 39,333 ind/acre.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111343"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145060662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Simulation and analysis of dengue transmission dynamics using advanced fuzzy arithmetic","authors":"Nurfatihah Abdullah ,&nbsp;Wan Munirah Wan Mohamad ,&nbsp;Tahir Ahmad ,&nbsp;Sumarni Abu Bakar","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111341","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111341","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Dengue fever remains a major public health concern in Malaysia due to the widespread presence of Aedes mosquitoes. Therefore, modeling its transmission is essential. This study aims to enhance the traditional SIR-SI model by developing two new versions called SEIHRD-SEI and SAVEIHRD-SEIW models to accurately represent Dengue transmission using advanced fuzzy arithmetical modeling based on the transformation method. These enhanced models incorporate intervention strategies such as awareness reminders, vaccination, and vector control. The state-space models of SEIHRD-SEI and SAVEIHRD-SEIW are simulated in Simulink, and their systems of differential equations are analytically solved using the matrix exponential integrating factor method to obtain output equations that preserve essential dynamics. The simulations are then executed using FAMOUS software for advanced fuzzy arithmetical analysis. The result shows that awareness reminders are more influential than vaccination in the human population. Furthermore, hospitalized recovery has a greater influence on disease dynamics than natural recovery. In the mosquito population, insecticide usage is more influential than Wolbachia prevalence. Overall, the study successfully identifies the most influential parameters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111341"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145048388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring the evolution of socio-ecological systems through agent-based modeling in Resuloğlu Höyük (North-Central Anatolia) during the early bronze age (4300–4100 BP)","authors":"Kemal Koçaklı ,&nbsp;Neriman Erdem ,&nbsp;Bülent Arıkan","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111346","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111346","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This research seeks to model and better comprehend how archaeological communities and their environments co-evolved throughout the Late Holocene, under changing climatic conditions, and the dynamic processes of topography in semi-arid badlands. Our research, based on archaeological and paleoenvironmental data, is centered on Resuloğlu Höyük (Mound), a settlement from the Early Bronze Age (ca. 4300–4100 BP) located at the confluence of the Delice and the Kızılırmak rivers in north-central Anatolia. Excavated systematically from 2003 through 2019, Resuloğlu presents a large dataset that allows high-resolution modeling of socio-ecological dynamics in the long term in this challenging environment.</div><div>Mediterranean Landscape Dynamics (MedLanD) model—a hybrid modeling system capable of quantifying complex feedback relations among human activity and natural processes—has been applied to simulate three different land-use strategies (i.e., agricultural, agropastoral, and pastoral) and three different climate conditions (e.g., normal,15% dry, and 15% wet). The model simulated the dynamic interactions between 4300 and 4100 cal. BP in nine distinct scenarios. The results show that groups that adopted an agriculturally concentrated strategy demonstrated comparatively higher resilience than agropastoral and pastoral strategies.</div><div>The environmental impact of each subsistence strategy under varying climatic conditions was also examined. Results indicate that pastoral lifeways were the most environmentally intensive under 15% wetter conditions. In contrast, mixed and pastoral strategies resulted in reduced environmental deterioration under 15% wetter climate. Owing to the badland nature of this research, precipitation was identified as the most influential driver of surface processes and the broader evolution of the landscape.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111346"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145048389","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A mechanistic stage-structured model for estimating maturation, mortality, and recruitment parameters of three economically significant fish species in Canadian waters","authors":"Sherif Eneye Shuaib ,&nbsp;Ghislain Rutayisire ,&nbsp;Qing Han ,&nbsp;Amy Veprauskas ,&nbsp;Jude Dzevela Kong","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111331","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111331","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study designs and analyzes a discrete-time, stage-structured model to estimate key life-history parameters (recruitment, maturation, and mortality) for three economically significant fish species in Canadian waters: Chinook Salmon (<em>Oncorhynchus tshawytscha</em>), Capelin (<em>Mallotus villosus</em>), and Cod (<em>Gadus morhua</em>). The analysis encompasses model wellposedness, the net reproductive number (<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>), and the global stability of equilibria. Sensitivity analysis using Partial Rank Correlation Coefficients (PRCC) was performed to assess the influence of key parameters on <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub></math></span> and long-term fish population abundance. Our findings reveal that recruitment and adult survival are the primary drivers of long-term population sustainability across all three species. While maturation transitions contribute positively to population growth, their influence is secondary compared to recruitment and survival. These results highlight the importance of effective management strategies that prioritize improving recruitment and adult survival while also supporting successful transitions between life stages to maintain stable fish populations and ensure the ecological and economic sustainability of fisheries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111331"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145048390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reservoir methane emission response to varying organic carbon loads under multiple socioeconomic development scenarios","authors":"Guni Xiang ,&nbsp;Zhihao Xu ,&nbsp;Kaiheng Chen ,&nbsp;Pan Yang ,&nbsp;Jingchuan Xue ,&nbsp;Sibo Zhang ,&nbsp;Weilun Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111340","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111340","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Reservoirs are riverine organic carbon (OC) retention and methane (CH₄) emission hotspots. However, the response of reservoir CH₄ cycling processes and emissions to varying OC loads under different socioeconomic development scenarios remains unclear. Accordingly, this study evaluates the impact of OC loads on reservoir CH₄ cycling processes and predicts future emissions under multiple socioeconomic development scenarios. A coupled physical-biogeochemical reservoir model was used to simulate CH₄ production, oxidation, diffusion, and ebullition dynamics. Three socioeconomic development scenarios (i.e., low, steady, and high-speed development) were adopted to project riverine OC loads and reservoir CH₄ emission. Using the second largest reservoir in China (i.e., Danjiangkou Reservoir) as a case study, the results demonstrate that increased OC loads led to a reduction in sediment CH₄ oxidation efficiency. As OC loads increased, the dominant sediment CH₄ release pathway shifted from diffusion to ebullition. A linear relationship was also observed between CH₄ ebullition and OC loads, while CH₄ diffusion exhibited a nonlinear growth trend. The findings highlight the importance of OC loads in regulating reservoir CH₄ cycling. Furthermore, CH₄ emissions may significantly increase (34 %–125 %) by 2050, raising emission control concerns. This study provides a modelling tool and fresh implications for future reservoir emission estimations and watershed management in the pursuance of carbon (C) neutrality goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111340"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145048374","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatial variability in defoliation dynamics during spruce budworm outbreaks: A landscape perspective","authors":"Olaloudé Judicaël Franck Osse ,&nbsp;Philippe Marchand ,&nbsp;Miguel Montoro Girona","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111337","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111337","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;div&gt;Our study explored the spatiotemporal dynamics of spruce budworm (SBW) defoliation in Quebec’s boreal forests, highlighting how climatic factors, historical defoliation, and landscape heterogeneity intersect. SBW outbreaks are a major disturbance in these ecosystems, with significant ecological and economic repercussions—underscoring the need to understand the mechanisms that drive them. Although previous research has linked warming temperatures and past defoliation patterns to more severe outbreaks, their localized effects remain poorly characterized. Our aim is to clarify these localized processes and support more targeted forest management strategies.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;We employed an adjacent-category autoregressive (ACAR) model specifically designed for ordinal defoliation data spanning 1992–2022. Defoliation was categorized into three severity levels: none, light, and moderate/severe. Key climate variables — most notably spring and summer temperatures, as well as precipitation — were obtained from BioSIM and assigned to each landscape unit (LU). After fitting individual ACAR models to each LU and confirming their adequacy via the Portmanteau test, we identified the best models using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). A clustering analysis then grouped LUs with comparable model parameters into distinct ecological response clusters.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;Our findings reveal that temperature exerts a non-linear influence on SBW defoliation: while warmer spring and summer conditions can initially facilitate larval survival, exceedingly high temperatures reduce defoliation by surpassing larval thermal tolerance and disrupting phenological synchrony with host trees. Additionally, strong autoregressive feedback values (&lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;msub&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;β&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mn&gt;1&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/msub&gt;&lt;mo&gt;,&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;msub&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;β&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/msub&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;) underscore the cumulative effect of past defoliation—trees weakened by previous outbreaks become more susceptible to subsequent infestations, triggering feedback loops that endanger long-term forest health. Through clustering, we identified five distinct landscape groups. The more homogeneous clusters (Clusters 4 and 5) displayed either relatively stable precipitation patterns or pronounced temperature variability, each with high silhouette scores (0.55 and 0.24, respectively), indicating clear opportunities for targeted management. Meanwhile, heterogeneous clusters like Cluster 1 (silhouette score: −0.43) exhibited overlapping characteristics that warrant further investigation.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;Overall, these results emphasize the importance of localized management approaches that account for climatic thresholds and historical defoliation patterns. Pinpointing temperature extremes and incorporating the impacts of cumulative defoliation can guide both the timing and intensity of interventions. Future research may integrate additional spatial factors, such as forest composition an","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111337"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145048375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multi-country pine species allocation under different climate scenarios","authors":"Ricardo Cavalheiro ,&nbsp;Ranga Raju Vatsavai ,&nbsp;Gary Hodge ,&nbsp;Juan Jose Acosta","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111330","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111330","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate-change scenarios can expose forests to several environmental hazards and recommending the right tree species to be planted in the right place is a key factor. Tree breeding programs provide valuable information on species adaptability through field trials. Although data is available, there is a lack of studies that provide decision-support models capable of predicting the impact of climate change on site-species recommendations. This study aims to develop multi-country decision-support models for pine species that can assist in pine species (genetic material) allocation under past and future climate scenarios, utilizing machine learning techniques and environmental covariates. The variable selected to express growth potential was the dominant height at age 8 years (HT8). The source for environmental covariates used was WorldClim 2.1. Random Forest models were fitted for each genetic material and were used to build allocation maps to optimize HT8 growth under past and future climate scenarios. Model evaluation metrics were performed using R-squared (R²); Root Mean Square Error (RMSE); Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The RF models showed high accuracy, with a mean R² of 0.78, MAE of 6.4 %, and RMSE of 8.6 % across all species. The most widely allocated pure species across both scenarios were <em>Pinus maximinoi, Pinus tecunumanii</em> high elevation, and <em>Pinus tecunumanii</em> low elevation, covering 28 %, 16.9 %, and 4.2 % of the total area, respectively. Under the future scenario, the ranking of species remains consistent, while the proportions shift slightly. The proposed methodology provides a practical tool to help companies select the top potential pine species for development and planting.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111330"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145018950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A state-space model for estimating pinniped pup production from serial counts at breeding colonies","authors":"Eiren K. Jacobson ,&nbsp;Mia R. Goldman ,&nbsp;Len Thomas ,&nbsp;Debbie J.F. Russell","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111333","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111333","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Estimating pinniped abundance is difficult because they are highly mobile and widely distributed, and spend the majority of time at sea. Abundance estimates are typically based on counts on land or ice. In species that breed colonially, such as the grey seal (<em>Halichoerus grypus</em>), monitoring is largely focused on the breeding season, and pup production (number of pups born in a season) is used as an index of the total population size. At any one colony, grey seals give birth over several months, so not all pups are present at the colony at any one time. Pups are born white and moult into an adult-like coat before leaving the colony. At most key UK breeding colonies, over the course of a breeding season, a series of digital photographic aerial surveys are conducted and analysts count the numbers of white and moulted seal pups photographed. We developed a flexible state-space model to estimate pup production using these count data. The model is comprised of a deterministic process model for birth, moult, and leaving, and a stochastic observation model that allows for imperfect detection and classification. We implemented this model in Template Model Builder (TMB) and fit it using maximum likelihood. We show that our model performs well on simulated and real datasets. This model could be applied to other taxa for which successive counts of different life stages are collected, and used to investigate key ecological questions including, for example, the impact of climate change on phenology.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111333"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145019146","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Explorers vs. followers: A behavioural approach to spatial bias correction in species distribution modelling","authors":"Emy Guilbault ,&nbsp;Panu Somervuo ,&nbsp;Ian Renner","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111311","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111311","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent years, the increase in data availability through citizen science data collection has raised questions about the quality of this data. Species distribution models can be severely impacted by non-random spatial distributions of records. Multiple methods exist to correct for spatial bias and most of them imply that the sampling is uneven in space and determined by the observers’ choices of where to search for observations. Most methods for addressing sampling biases in opportunistic datasets assume that each observer behaves uniformly, which in practice may not be the case. We focus our study on a widely-used correction method, chosen for its adaptable framework, and assess its effectiveness in mitigating biases from a group of observers with varying behaviours. This method includes a covariate in the model as a bias proxy and corrects for this bias by setting this covariate equal to a constant upon prediction. We differentiate two observer behaviours: exploring and following. Under this paradigm, explorers select destinations far away from the current set of observed points, while followers choose destinations at or near one of the observed points. As such, it is worth investigating whether the current approaches to correcting for observer bias hold under varying observer behaviours, or whether a data-driven approach based on modelled observer behaviour may lead to better predictions. To do so, we developed a new software platform, obsimulator, to simulate patterns of points driven by observer behaviour. We established a correction method based on a bias incorporation approach using k-nearest neighbours. We found that including a bias covariate and setting it to a constant for prediction yields the best results and the strength of the correction differs between cohorts of observers. Additionally, the optimal number of neighbouring points and smoothing parameters depends on the ratio of explorers versus followers in the observers’ cohort.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111311"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145019147","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}