Ecological Modelling最新文献

{"title":"Modelling the dynamics of soil moisture and soil water salinity in tropical saltmarshes","authors":"Ronny Peters ,&nbsp;Ângela Cristina Alves Reis ,&nbsp;Ulf Mehlig ,&nbsp;Marie-Christin Wimmler ,&nbsp;Jonas Vollhüter ,&nbsp;Uday Pimple ,&nbsp;Britta Tietjen ,&nbsp;Uta Berger","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111089","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111089","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tropical saltmarshes share the intertidal zone with mangroves. In contrast to saltmarshes of temperate latitudes, these only occupy the uppermost niche of the intertidal zone, and are characterised by periods of severe drought and hypersalinity in the upper soil during dry seasons. Like mangroves, they show pronounced species zonation patterns along elevation gradients. The primary driver behind these soil water patterns is the variation in tidal flooding frequency, especially notable in the upper tidal zone. Precipitation is the second main source of water, and evapotranspiration and plant transpiration are further factors shaping soil water dynamics and driving plant growth. To describe and comprehend the soil water processes and their dynamics in tropical saltmarshes, we introduce the hydrological model SALTFRED. This model aims to mechanistically predict soil water salinity and root zone soil moisture, elucidating the intricate differentiation of drought and salt stress within the saltmarsh. The model explicitly describes processes of infiltration, seepage and evapotranspiration, along with their influence on the salinity of the soil water. We demonstrate its suitability with an application to a specific study site on the Bragança Peninsula (Pará, Brazil). Utilising complete time series of tidal data and precipitation (for the year 2015), we predict drought and salt stress and compare simulated levels of stress with tolerance levels of the dominant vegetation types and saltmarsh species. Extreme salt and drought stress are defined as salt concentrations of <em>90</em> parts per thousand (ppt) and plant available water of <em>0.5</em> vol<em>%</em> (0.005 cm³ water per cm³ of soil), respectively. The results suggest that mangrove vegetation thrives where these extreme stress conditions are persistently not reached due to regular flooding by the tides. In the saltmarsh, as elevation increases and the frequency of spring tide flooding decreases, longer periods without water infiltration occur. As a result, the duration of salt stress events increases. In the higher parts of the saltmarsh, additional drought stress is predicted. Our results confirm a robust correlation between simulated levels of seasonally varying drought and salt stress and tolerance levels of the dominant saltmarsh species <em>Rhynchospora riparia, Fimbristylis cymosa</em>, and <em>Sporobolus virgincus</em> at the study site.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"504 ","pages":"Article 111089"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143610544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Synergizing farmland reverting and energy substitution programs in Wolong through agent-based modelling and cost-efficiency analysis","authors":"Keyi Liu ,&nbsp;Yufeng Chen ,&nbsp;Liyan Xu ,&nbsp;Xiao Zhang ,&nbsp;Zilin Wang ,&nbsp;Hailong Li ,&nbsp;Yansheng Yang ,&nbsp;Hong You ,&nbsp;Dihua Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111079","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111079","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Balancing human development with conservation necessitates ecological policies that optimize outcomes within limited budgets, highlighting the importance of cost-efficiency and local impact analysis. This study employs the Socio-Econ-Ecosystem Multipurpose Simulator (SEEMS), an Agent-Based Model (ABM) designed for simulating small-scale Coupled Human and Nature Systems (CHANS), to evaluate the cost-efficiency of two major ecology conservation programs: Grain-to-Green (G2G) and Firewood-to-Electricity (F2E). Focusing on China's Wolong National Reserve, a worldwide hot spot for flagship species conservation, the study evaluates the direct benefits of these programs, including reverted farmland area and firewood consumption, along with their combined indirect benefits on habitat quality, carbon emissions, and gross economic benefits. The findings are as follows: (1) The G2G program achieves optimal financial efficiency at approximately 500 CNY/Mu (∼1177.5 USD/ha), with diminishing returns observed beyond 1000 CNY/Mu (∼2355 USD/ha); (2) For the F2E program, the most fiscally cost-efficient option arises when the subsidized electricity price is at 0.4–0.5 CNY/kWh (∼0.063–0.079 USD/kWh), while further reductions of the prices to below 0.1 CNY/kWh (∼0.0157 USD/kWh) result in a diminishing cost-benefit ratio; (3) Comprehensive cost-efficiency analysis reveals no significant link between financial burden and carbon emissions, but a positive correlation with habitat quality and an inverted U-shaped relationship with total economic income; (4) Pareto analysis identifies 18 optimal dual-policy combinations for balancing carbon footprint, habitat quality, and gross economic benefits; (5) Posterior Pareto optimization further refines the selection of a specific policy scheme for a given realistic scenario. The analytical framework of this paper helps policymakers design economically viable and environmentally sustainable policies, addressing global conservation challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"504 ","pages":"Article 111079"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143610427","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Empirical dynamic modeling for prediction and control of pest populations","authors":"Bethany J. Johnson ,&nbsp;Marcella M. Gomez ,&nbsp;Stephan B. Munch","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111081","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111081","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Insect pests pose a threat to humans by jeopardizing food security in agricultural systems, acting as vectors for infectious diseases, and damaging forests and other ecosystems. Despite decades of research, effective pest management remains challenging. Incomplete understanding of the mechanisms behind pest population dynamics limits our ability to anticipate outbreaks. Hence, pest management is often reactive, meaning control actions are taken once outbreaks have already begun, allowing for damage to occur. Here we show that a data-driven model can effectively predict outbreaks, allowing us to optimize control strategies, targeting pests before outbreaks occur. Specifically, we explore empirical dynamic modeling paired with stochastic dynamic programming to keep insect populations within acceptable bounds. We show that this framework reduces outbreaks in several simulated and empirical scenarios. Our study provides a promising framework to reduce losses from pests.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"504 ","pages":"Article 111081"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143600807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Numerical simulation of plant lateral root stress perturbation during shallow coal seam mining in the semi-arid region of Western China","authors":"Yong Guo ,&nbsp;Ying Liu ,&nbsp;Weihao Pei ,&nbsp;Yuzhi Zhou ,&nbsp;Shaogang Lei ,&nbsp;Dongjiang Pan ,&nbsp;Chuangang Gong ,&nbsp;Xiaoyang Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111072","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111072","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Plant lateral root damage is an important ecological problem of vegetation degradation in semi-arid mining areas in western China. The damage mechanism and influencing factors of plant lateral roots caused by stress changes in root-soil layer induced by mining urgently need to be explored in depth. Based on the field survey data of plant roots, combined with quasi-cohesion theory and anchoring theory, and through the control variable method, a numerical model considering four key parameters, namely mining height, advancing distance, mining speed and coal seam burial depth, was established by FLAC3D software to analyze the macroscopic mechanical disturbance characteristics of root-soil complex and plant lateral roots. The research results show that: the stress on the bottom of the root-soil layer above the goaf area is higher than that on the surface; During the advancement of the working face from 60 m to 110 m, the failure range of the plastic zone of the root-soil layer and the stress on the lateral roots of plants showed an increasing trend, and the stress on lateral roots increases up to 3.3 MPa when the working face advances from 80 m to 110 m; in the disturbance zone, the maximum stress of the lateral roots and the failure range of the plastic zone of the root-soil layer increase with the increase of mining height, but decrease with the increase of coal seam burial depth; the change of the mining speed has little effect on the stress of the lateral roots and the failure range of the plastic zone of the root-soil layer, the maximum stress difference on the lateral roots between the maximum and minimum mining rates is only about 0.58 MPa. In addition, compared with plant roots with only the main root, plant roots with lateral root structure show better tensile and shear resistance in the root-soil layer, which shows that the presence of lateral roots help to enhance the overall stability and damage resistance of plant roots. FLAC3D was used to construct a three-dimensional visualization numerical simulation model of plant lateral root, which revealed the macroscopic mechanical response mechanism of plant lateral root damage induced by mining, and clarified the influence of various factors on plant lateral root stress damage induced by mining.The research findings enrich the understanding of plant damage mechanisms induced by underground coal mining in semi-arid areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"504 ","pages":"Article 111072"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143610543","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Development of a PDP computational model to enhance the control and management of an aphid pest under greenhouse conditions","authors":"MªAngels Colomer ,&nbsp;Olga M.C.C. Ameixa","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111075","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111075","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>European Green Deal aims reduce chemical pesticides use by 50 % by 2030, highlighting the need for effective biological pest control. However, predicting interactions between multiple biological control agent remains challenging, due to complex, non-linear dynamics that traditional differential models struggled to capture. Novel modelling approaches such as bioinspired computational Population Dynamics P models (PDP models), have the potential to address these bottlenecks being capable of simulating multiple, simultaneous interactions in biological systems.</div><div>We developed an PDP model to evaluated the interactions between two natural enemies in a greenhouse environment - <em>Adalia bipunctata</em> (predator) and <em>Aphidius colemani</em> (parasitoid) - and their shared prey, the peach aphid <em>Myzus persicae</em>, an important economic pest. The model was validated with experimental data, on aphid population growth rates and biocontrol agent introduction time. Using these validated parameters, scenarios were analysed to optimize pest control strategies, balancing both effectiveness and economic costs. Our results revealed that <em>A. bipunctata</em> was more effective at rapidly reducing aphid populations when its quantity was fixed. However, <em>A. colemani</em> was more cost-efficient due to its lower acquisition cost, enabling the deployment of more parasitoids. The model also underscored the importance of timely interventions, showing that delayed introduction of biocontrol agents significantly reduced pest suppression efficacy, also demonstrating the potential in clarifying trade-offs between cost and effectiveness. This study provides a robust framework for developing advanced PDP models, paving the way for improved, cost-effective pest management solutions tailored to complex agroecosystems and designed to meet current and future policy demands.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"504 ","pages":"Article 111075"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143591440","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A comparative analysis of univariate and multivariate spatial requirements modeling for habitat selection in freshwater fish: A case study of Oxynoemacheilus bergianus in the Jajroud River, Iran and implications for conservation and management","authors":"Saleh Mahmoudi,&nbsp;Asghar Abdoli","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111076","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111076","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the habitat requirements for fish in fluvial ecosystems is a key factor in conservation and making decisions for management. One of the main questions is what are the optimal ranges for each variable-velocity, depth, and substrate structure-that the species requires, and how do these ranges influence its development and survival? Given the scarcity of biological and ecological information on <em>Oxynoemacheilus bergianus</em> habitat selection at the mesoscale, this survey was designed to provide an answer to the aforementioned question. For this purpose, the effects of three main variables, including flow velocity, water depth, and substrate composition on the habitat selection of the species in a lotic ecosystem in northern Iran were evaluated. The results indicate that for the juvenile group, depths up to 20 cm, velocities of 15–20 cm.s-1, and a dominant substrate of fine and medium gravel are the most suitable ranges. For the adult group, depths of 20–30 cm, velocities of 15–30 cm.s-1, and small cobbles are preferred We addressed these questions using both univariate and multivariate approaches, which resulted in different variable importance, model accuracy, and uncertainty across methods. Specifically, flow velocity was identified as the most significant variable in the univariate analysis. The depth variable was more important in the multivariate approach. The minimum method (MI) and the arithmetic mean (AM) method had the lowest and highest error and uncertainty among the combined methods, respectively. The Generalized Linear Models (GLM) and Random Forest Models (RF) approaches showed the most accurate models in the Species Distribution Models (SDMs) for juvenile and adult groups, respectively. Utilizing these vital results will empower managers to make informed decisions aimed at conserving O. bergianus, ultimately leading to effective strategies that protect its habitat and ensure the species' long-term survival.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"504 ","pages":"Article 111076"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143549300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Altitude differences in relationship between radial growth process and cambial phenology of Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia) on the Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Le Zhang ,&nbsp;Liang Jiao ,&nbsp;Ruhong Xue ,&nbsp;Peng Zhang ,&nbsp;Xin Yuan ,&nbsp;Qian Li ,&nbsp;Kuan Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111078","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111078","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change profoundly affects tree radial growth dynamics and phenological changes, yet the relationships between radial growth and cambial phenology of dominant tree species at different altitudes on the Tibetan Plateau remain unclear under the background of climate change. In this study, we analyzed the characteristics and relationships between intra-annual growth rates and growth phenology of Qinghai spruce using tree-ring width data from 1973 to 2022 at different altitudes on the Tibetan Plateau based on a growth process model. The results showed that the inter-annual variations of radial growth at high altitude exhibited a gradual increasing trend, with intra-annual growth rates displaying a unimodal pattern. Additionally, there were no significant differences in growth rates dependence on temperature and soil moisture between wide and narrow rings. Inter-annual variations of radial growth at low altitude showed a gradual decreasing trend, with intra-annual growth rates exhibiting a bimodal pattern. Growth rates dependence on temperature did not differ significantly between wide and narrow rings, but the growth rates dependence on soil moisture was significantly different. Phenological characteristics are the key factors to determine inter-annual tree radial growth at high altitude, while both phenological characteristics and soil moisture are the main reasons to determine inter-annual and intra-annual tree radial growth at low altitude. The findings provide a theoretical basis for scientific management of forest ecosystems at different altitudes on the Tibetan Plateau and accurate prediction of forest growth dynamics under future climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"504 ","pages":"Article 111078"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143549297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Constructing time-series submerged aquatic vegetation by integrating process-based modeling and satellite images","authors":"Lingyan Qi ,&nbsp;Han Yin ,&nbsp;Zhengxin Wang ,&nbsp;Liuyi Dai ,&nbsp;Liangtao Ye ,&nbsp;Kejia Zhang ,&nbsp;Mingzhu Guo ,&nbsp;Haifeng Qi ,&nbsp;Jiacong Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111074","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111074","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) plays a critical role in lake ecosystem health. However, quantifying the spatiotemporal patterns of SAV biomass remains challenging due to limited time-series data. To address this challenge, we integrated a process-based SAV dynamic model with a satellite-based SAV biomass estimation model to construct a time-series SAV dataset for Lake Zhanbei, a sub-lake within China's largest freshwater lake, Lake Poyang. The integrated model effectively captured SAV biomass dynamics, with model performance of <em>R²</em>=0.60 and <em>RMSE</em>=0.24 kg/m² compared to measured data. Results showed that SAV was more abundant near floodplain areas. A significant decline of SAV biomass was observed from 0.76 kg/m² (2021) to 0.19 kg/m² (2022), primarily due to a drop in the annual average water level from 14.1 m (2021) to 13.4 m (2022) caused by extreme drought. Water level was the most sensitive driver of SAV biomass, while temperature also had a notable impact under optimal water levels. Our scenario simulations revealed that global warming could enhance SAV growth, while nutrients had minimal effects. Compared with <em>in-situ</em> measurements from previous publications, the integrated model offers a cost-effective and high-resolution approach to study SAV dynamics, with potential applications in other lakes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"504 ","pages":"Article 111074"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143549298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Toward a better understanding of forest spatial patterns:A generalisation of the uniform angle index","authors":"Yuankun Bu ,&nbsp;Weizhong Li ,&nbsp;Klaus von Gadow ,&nbsp;Jiangtao Wei ,&nbsp;Pengxiang Zhao ,&nbsp;Yanzheng Yang ,&nbsp;Chaofan Zhou ,&nbsp;Boheng Wang ,&nbsp;Xuan Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111070","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111070","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Spatial structure is important for characterizing a forest ecosystem. Among a myriad of spatial structure indices, the <em>Uniform Angle Index</em> (UAI) is rather special. The UAI quantifies a spatial pattern based on angles between neighbouring trees, thereby offering new insights into close range tree arrangements, competition, and stand dynamics. However, previous theoretical studies of the UAI have primarily relied on simulation stand and hence the uncertainty associated with them since its inception. Therefore, a mathematical derivation is still lacking. In this study, we present a theoretical framework for the UAI with the aim of broadening its applicability in quantifying the intensity of interactions among trees. Our theory is developed at two levels, the individual tree level and the stand level. The objective is to eliminate any simulation-induced uncertainty and bias and to enrich the theoretical foundation and applicability. We present a significant improvement of the UAI for estimating interaction strength among trees by the distance between an ideal and a real stand. This research highlights the opportunities for point pattern research in a new multidisciplinary science of forest ecology by growing knowledge and information along scientifically meaningful lines.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"503 ","pages":"Article 111070"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143528800","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Growing at the edge: Modelling sapling colonization, performance, and effective range of mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. tortuosa)","authors":"Anna Mariager Behrend ,&nbsp;Arne Pommerening","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111073","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111073","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Colonization of trees from existing woodlands into adjacent open lands is a critical process of passive restoration, leading to the formation of secondary woodlands. Important drivers of this process include sheltering from surrounding woodlands, which can affect both the spatial range of colonization and the performance of individual saplings. In this study we analysed the effects of sheltering and canopy height on the patterns of natural colonization and individual sapling performance of mountain birch (<em>Betula pubescens</em> ssp. <em>tortuosa</em>) in different regions of Iceland. We measured sapling densities and individual sapling morphology along transects, and modelled colonization using hyperbolic kernel functions. We subsequently used these colonization kernels to define and calculate the effective spatial range for mountain birch colonization. The results showed a clear effect of regional environments on the performance of mountain birch saplings. The effective spatial range of colonization varied greatly between regions, ranging from 16.6 m in areas with birch of low stature, to 67.4 m in the region with the tallest, straightest stems. We furthermore saw that individual sapling performance was a direct product of sheltering, as one kernel function parameter was significantly correlated with the tree morphology index used in this study. Our results highlighted the importance of sheltering from surrounding woodlands on both colonization patterns and on individual sapling performance, though sheltering effects are generally low in Iceland. This should be considered in research as well as practice by combining natural colonization with efficient localized planting. The effective spatial range can aid in finding an appropriate balance between these two restoration methods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"503 ","pages":"Article 111073"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143527375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}