Ecological Modelling最新文献

{"title":"A mechanistic population-level (i.e. differential equation) model of Microcystis growth and toxin production","authors":"Charlotte Schampera,&nbsp;Ferdi L. Hellweger","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111094","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111094","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Blooms of the cyanobacteria <em>Microcystis</em> and its toxin microcystin (MC) are an important global environmental problem. Effective management of waterbodies impaired by these cyanobacteria harmful algal blooms (CyanoHABs) requires modeling, but existing operational codes generally do not include toxins. Recently, we presented a model of <em>Microcystis</em> growth and toxin production, which builds on a large literature meta-analysis and can reproduce the observed succession of toxigenic and non-toxigenic genotypes and MC concentration in Lake Erie (DOI: 10.1126/science.abm6791) and other systems (DOI: 10.1016/j.hal.2024.102711). However, that model's complexity and agent-based modeling (ABM) structure make it difficult to use. Here, we present a simpler and more general population-level model (PLM) that can be integrated into existing operational Eulerian modeling frameworks. The model includes toxigenic and non-toxigenic strains and state variables for intracellular and extracellular MCs. Processes include MC synthesis as a function of temperature, light and nitrogen availability, benefit of MC (e.g. protection against H₂O₂ damage), excretion and degradation (extracellular). Two versions for variable (i.e. Droop) and fixed (i.e. Monod) phytoplankton nutrient composition are presented. The PLM can also reproduce the field observations, and simulations of management options are consistent with the ABM, including an increase in MC concentration under a 40 % phosphorus only reduction strategy for systems with partial N-limitation. The model constitutes a substantial step towards closing the gap between biological understanding and operational management models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"504 ","pages":"Article 111094"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143748556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A coupled eco-hydrological model to simulate vegetation condition from soil moisture deficit in a data-scarce semi-arid wetland","authors":"Moyang Liu ,&nbsp;Barry F.W. Croke ,&nbsp;Serena H. Hamilton ,&nbsp;Julien Lerat ,&nbsp;Anthony J. Jakeman","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111099","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111099","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Environmental flows are increasingly being used to restore or maintain wetland vegetation condition, with vegetation response being one of the primary considerations when determining environmental water releases. However, it is challenging and expensive to evaluate vegetation condition over time and at scale from on-ground monitoring to support such decisions. This study presents a model that predicts the Leaf Area Index (LAI) used as a proxy for vegetation response to climate and river flow drivers. The proposed coupled eco-hydrological model simulates floodplain inundation extent using a mass balance equation and estimates soil moisture deficit by modifying the IHACRES-CMD hydrological model to account for both climate and inundation. The eco-hydrological model finally predicts LAI via a linear regression using simulated soil moisture deficit as a predictor. The conceptual-empirical approach is the first attempt to use soil moisture-related information to predict vegetation condition in an environmental flow management context, compared with the more commonly used flow- and inundation-based metrics in floodplain wetlands. The model achieves promising performance in a semi-arid wetland, the Narran Lakes in Australia. The results based on cross-validation on different periods show that: (1) inundation influences vegetation response significantly; (2) soil moisture deficit, when estimated via a modified hydrological model, is a useful predictor of vegetation response, especially for drought periods when flow releases are most needed; and (3) the optimal frequency of flood events required to maintain vegetation health in the Narran Lakes is one event every 4-6 years. The simple structure of our eco-hydrological model, which utilizes regularly monitored hydro-climatic variables such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, and inflow, could potentially be used in vegetation monitoring and management in similar semi-arid wetland systems. This requires processing of remote-sensed vegetation information and calibration of parameters in the model from the hydro-climatic data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"504 ","pages":"Article 111099"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143740000","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Understanding predator-prey-competitor dynamics between Lower Missouri River Macrhybopsis and Scaphirhynchus using a population—bioenergetics model ensemble","authors":"Mark L. Wildhaber,&nbsp;Janice L. Albers ,&nbsp;Nicholas S. Green","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111097","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111097","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The pallid sturgeon <em>Scaphirhynchus albus</em> is a long-lived, endangered fish in the Missouri River. Individuals become piscivorous as adults, so recruitment from stocking or reproduction could reduce populations of prey, including <em>Macrhybopsis</em> chubs. We constructed an individual- and age-based, multi-species, predator-prey-competitor model (IAMP) to represent the benthic community (sturgeons, chubs, and chironomids) of the Lower Missouri River (LMR) to explore scenarios of potential predator-prey-competitor dynamics. Our simulations suggest that chubs alone are unlikely able to support a level of LMR pallid sturgeon similar to historical or current populations. These simulations also suggest that adult pallid sturgeon may need to shift to non-chub prey fish to achieve the greater sizes observed in the Upper Missouri River. When annual hydrologic regimes were included, we found a negative relationship between chub relative abundance and previous year 30-day minimum flows. Inclusion of temporal environmental variability made it clear that large chub populations may be necessary to support LMR pallid sturgeon. When full stochasticity was included in the IAMP, chub population sizes needed to increase further to ensure continued reproduction and recruitment of both chubs and pallid sturgeon. These results support the hypothesis that the pallid sturgeon population in the Lower Missouri River may be food-limited. However, the full extent of this limitation and the management changes needed to address this will require more research on the biology and population dynamics of this fish community, on pallid sturgeon interactions with prey species, and on how sympatric species may be affected during the pallid sturgeon recovery process.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"504 ","pages":"Article 111097"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143726026","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Phenological analysis through biomathematical models of three varieties of pear (Pyrus communis L.) in mediterranean climate conditions","authors":"William Campillay-Llanos ,&nbsp;Samuel Ortega-Farias ,&nbsp;Gonzalo A. Díaz ,&nbsp;Luis Ahumada-Orellana ,&nbsp;Rafael López-Olivari","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111105","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111105","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change has induced significant alterations in the timing of phenological stages of fruit trees globally, underscoring the critical need for studies incorporating precise quantitative data into biomathematical models describing phenology. Despite numerous regional studies, the pear tree (Pyrus communis L.) has received scant attention in the southern hemisphere. This study focuses on establishing day intervals for key phenological stages - bud burst, flowering, and harvest - in pear varieties including Abate Fetel, Coscia, and Forelle. Monomolecular phenology models were developed for each cultivar, where the determination coefficient (r²) values ranging from 0.94 to 0.96. Additionally, the model validation was conducted to assess accuracy, revealing varying ranges of error metrics among cultivars. The average value of RMSE, MAE, and EF was 9.7, 7.0, and 0.80, respectively. Particularly, Rpo values were consistent, indicating favorable agreement between observed and simulated values. Furthermore, the <em>t</em>-test yielded a value of 1 across all cultivars, confirming model validity. Modeling the effect of climate change to simulate advancement in phenological stages presents a dynamic monomolecular model with lag effect, providing valuable insights to support agricultural management, including pest and disease management, fertilizer application, irrigation, and harvest planning, in response to evolving environmental conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"504 ","pages":"Article 111105"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143726025","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrated SSP-RCP Scenarios for Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change and Land Use on Ecosystem Services in East Africa","authors":"Edovia Dufatanye Umwali ,&nbsp;Xi Chen ,&nbsp;Xuexi Ma ,&nbsp;Zengkun Guo ,&nbsp;Dickson Mbigi ,&nbsp;Zhuo Zhang ,&nbsp;Adeline Umugwaneza ,&nbsp;Aboubakar Gasirabo ,&nbsp;Jeanine Umuhoza","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111092","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111092","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ecosystem Services (ES) link natural ecosystems to human well-being and are crucial for sustainable development amid climate and land use challenges. This study presents a novel framework that integrates the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) and Integrated Valuation and Trade-offs of ESs (InVEST) model, with the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) derived from NEX-GDDP-CMIP6. This approach, the first of its kind in East Africa (EA), examined projected changes in water yield (WY), carbon storage (CS), and habitat quality (HQ) were assessed under SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios for the 2041-2060 (2050s) and 2081-2100 (2090s) compared to the historical period (2000-2020). The findings revealed regional variability in precipitation, with an increase of 0.2 in certain areas during the 2050s and a projected temperature rise of 0.7, with significant warming expected by 2090 under the SSP585. The FLUS model exhibited high accuracy, with an overall accuracy of 0.95 and a Kappa coefficient of 0.93. Projections indicate a substantial reduction in barren land (35.7%) and forestland (24.63%), alongside an increase in cropland (24.92%) and urban areas (106.71%) by 2090. All scenarios showed reductions in ESs, with WY decreasing up to 31.36% under SSP126 and CS projected to decline by 6.38% under SSP585 by 2050. Whereas HQ is expected to fall by 5.37% under SSP585 by 2090. These highlight the growing pressures of climate and land use change on ES, offering critical insights for reconciling environmental preservation with socioeconomic development in the region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"504 ","pages":"Article 111092"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143683000","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A hierarchical population model for the estimation of latent prey abundance and demographic rates of a nomadic predator","authors":"Thomas V. Riecke ,&nbsp;Pierre-Alain Ravussin ,&nbsp;Ludovic Longchamp ,&nbsp;Daniel Trolliet ,&nbsp;Dan Gibson ,&nbsp;Michael Schaub","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111077","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111077","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Linking the demographic parameters underlying population change to environmental conditions is a central goal of population demography. However, multicollinearity among processes in ecological studies can complicate parameter estimation and inference. We sought to demonstrate the use of structural equation modelling, a technique for estimating hypothesized causal pathways among collinear observed and unobserved variables, in the context of integrated population models. We monitored a population of Tengmalm’s owls(<em>Aegolius funereus</em>) breeding in the Jura Mountains of northwestern Switzerland and eastern France for 31 years (1990-2020) and collected data on captured prey items. We use concepts central to structural equation models (i.e., latent variables) and integrated population models to estimate the effects of latent prey abundance on Tengmalm’s owl demographic parameters. We observed strong positive effects of latent prey abundance during time <span><math><mi>t</mi></math></span> on clutch size, fledging probability, and immigration rates into the breeding population, and strong effects of positive changes in latent prey abundance from time <span><math><mi>t</mi></math></span> to <span><math><mrow><mi>t</mi><mo>+</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></math></span> on first-year and adult survival. We also observed long-term declines in immigration into the study area. Our work provides a straightforward example of incorporating concepts central to structural equation models (e.g., latent variables) to model environmental processes underlying demographic rates in integrated population models, and has interesting implications for metapopulation ecology of Tengmalm’s owl populations in Europe.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"504 ","pages":"Article 111077"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143654606","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatially explicit modelling of woody plant encroachment: A review of models published from 2013 through 2022","authors":"Miranda R. Peterson,&nbsp;Hsiao-Hsuan Wang,&nbsp;William E. Grant","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111095","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111095","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Grasslands cover approximately one-third-of the earth's land area, and many have been degraded by woody plant encroachment. A variety of spatially explicit simulation models have been developed to investigate different aspects of woody plant encroachment. In this study, we review the spatially explicit models of woody plant encroachment published from 2013 through 2022. We characterize the models regarding their nomenclature, focal geographical area, spatial and temporal scales, purpose, origin, and key processes. We then summarize our findings and provide some observations regarding the importance of spatially explicit models for representing the key factors and processes influencing woody plant encroachment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"504 ","pages":"Article 111095"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143654607","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Plant viability: Modeling the impacts of harvesting non-timber forest products in a fragmented landscape","authors":"Maria C.A. Leite ,&nbsp;Ruth I. Oliva-Zúniga ,&nbsp;Pedro J. Torres","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111080","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111080","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we develop a mathematical model to explore the impact of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) harvesting and fragmentation on the viability of plant populations, employing a meta-population framework. Our aim is to investigate how harvesting rates and patch connectivity influence harvest yield while ensuring population viability. Our findings indicate that sustainable harvesting rates can be explicitly determined for metapopulations composed of two patches, highlighting the influence of patch connectivity and dispersal rates on maximum sustainable yield (<strong>MSY</strong>). Notably, the <strong>MSY</strong> does not always increase with higher connectivity; instead, it may exhibit non-monotonic behavior depending on the dispersal rate. Additionally, under certain conditions, a suitable harvesting strategy may involve concentrating harvesting efforts on a single patch to ensure population regeneration. These insights underscore the importance of adaptable management strategies in the sustainable harvesting of NTFPs and the conservation of plant populations in fragmented habitats.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"504 ","pages":"Article 111080"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143631896","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"What grows, adapts and lives in the digital sphere? Systematic literature review on the dynamic modelling of flora and fauna in digital twins","authors":"Laura Mrosla ,&nbsp;Henna Fabritius ,&nbsp;Kristiina Kupper ,&nbsp;Fabian Dembski ,&nbsp;Pia Fricker","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111091","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111091","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The modelling of flora and fauna is vital for understanding and digitally representing our environment, yet their dynamic modelling in digital twins lags behind human-made inventions like manufacturing and the built environment. The interdisciplinary nature of this research complicates tracking advancements, and no comprehensive overview exists. This Systematic Literature Review (SLR), using the PRISMA method, addresses this gap by analysing studies on dynamic modelling of flora and fauna in digital twins and 3D city models. It covers descriptive metrics and qualitative aspects, identifying key research fields, directions, users, and developers. Additionally, this SLR details on digital twin data, modelling techniques, actuators, user experience with human-computer interaction, and ethical considerations. The findings highlight that the digital twin concept is being increasingly applied to the dynamical modelling of flora and fauna. Moreover, the broad relevance of this research is demonstrated across various fields including ecology, forestry, urban studies, and agriculture, where diverse methods and technologies are used, though progress remains uneven. Currently, precision agriculture is leading the way in automated, bidirectional synchronisation between digital twins and their physical counterparts. Complementing traditional modelling techniques with AI and machine learning where appropriate, expands modelling capabilities. Meanwhile, multimodal interfaces enhance the immersive user experience. Despite these advances, challenges persist in data availability, foundational knowledge, complex interaction modelling, standardisation and transferability, underscoring the need for continued research. Digital twins for the biotic environment show promise in supporting United Nations Sustainable Development Goals 2, 11, 13, 14, and 15. This overview supports researchers and practitioners in developing digital twin applications which include flora and fauna.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"504 ","pages":"Article 111091"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143629292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Forest insect populations: Modeling of critical events as first- and second-order phase transitions","authors":"V.G. Soukhovolsky ,&nbsp;O.V. Tarasova ,&nbsp;A.V. Kovalev ,&nbsp;Yu.D. Ivanova ,&nbsp;S.V. Pavlushin ,&nbsp;Y.B. Akhanaev ,&nbsp;V.V. Martemyanov","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111090","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111090","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this article, methods are examined for modeling of critical events in forest insect populations by describing the processes of development of a population outbreak as analogs of first- and second-order phase transitions in physical systems. Measurable parameters characterizing the phase transition processes are proposed. For several forest insect species, first-order phase transition models were analyzed, which allowed to characterize risks of insect outbreaks. Second-order phase transitions were used to describe a spatial distribution of insects among trees (food items) on sample plots. These transitions characterize critical frequency of individuals per victim unit (tree); after attaining this frequency, insects colonize and start consuming all food items. It was also shown that a second-order phase transition model can describe the interaction of a baculovirus with spongy moth caterpillars. This model helped to estimate the latent period of the baculovirus's impact on the insect population and the time required for absolute mortality of caterpillars at different doses of the baculovirus. The proposed approach requires minimal data on the state of an ecosystem.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"504 ","pages":"Article 111090"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143620002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}