Ecological Modelling最新文献

{"title":"A coupled machine-learning-individual-based model for migration dynamics simulation: A case study of migratory fish in fish passage facilities","authors":"Jingyang Wang ,&nbsp;Baiyin baoligao ,&nbsp;Xiangpeng Mu ,&nbsp;Zhihong Qie ,&nbsp;Guangning Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110899","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110899","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The extensive development of hydropower projects has notably changed the ecohydrological conditions of fish habitats, affecting fish behavior, including habitat usage and migration, to varying extents. Understanding fish migration dynamics is essential for quantitatively assessing the impact of ecological restoration measures on migratory fish. However, no model has yet demonstrated sufficient accuracy to be considered valuable in ecological restoration engineering. To address this issue, in this article, a coupled machine-learning-individual-based model (ML-IBM) consisting of random forest (RF) and Eulerian–Lagrangian–agent method (ELAM) is constructed for predicting fish migration, aiming to find effective fish passage solutions before implementation. In this study, the passage data of ya-fish (<em>Schizothorax prenanti</em>) in vertical slot fishways (VSFs) is compiled to train ML-IBM to simulate fish migration in fish passage facilities. In movement prediction, the accuracy of swimming behavior classification reaches 83.4 %, and the R² for swimming speed regression exceeds 0.77. Compared with other state-of-the-art migration dynamic models, the proposed ML-IBM achieves the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) of 7.35 and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 6.26 in migration simulation results. Further, RF is used to quantitatively calculate the importance of input features. The contributions of each feature are analyzed and discussed from a hydrodynamic perspective, with the importance ranked as follows: flow velocity (FV) &gt; turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) &gt; total hydraulic strain (THS). This approach enhances the interpretability of the model and provides further insights into the mechanism of fish migration. The results presented in this study have significant implications for informing decision-making in the management of living resources and guiding engineering design processes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142420867","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Snow runoff modelling in the upper Indus River Basin and its implication to energy water food nexus","authors":"Hazrat Bilal ,&nbsp;Chamhuri Siwar ,&nbsp;Mazlin Bin Mokhtar ,&nbsp;Fatima-Zahra Lahlou ,&nbsp;Kasturi Devi Kanniah ,&nbsp;Tareq Al-Ansari","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110871","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110871","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Pakistan's hydropower sector depends heavily on glacier and snowmelt water that originates from the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). It is expected that climate change may adversely affect future hydropower generation capacity as a result of fluctuations in the magnitude, seasonality and hydrological extremes of the Indus River flow. This study employed the Degree-Day Snowmelt Runoff Model alongside the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer MODIS and daily ground-based hydro-meteorological data to model the snowmelt runoff response in the UIB. The results indicated a significant increase in the annual and seasonal runoff under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, suggesting more water availability for hydropower and irrigation. By the end of the century, annual river flow is projected to increase by 28 % to 69 % under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. Consequently, rise in annual river flow is expected to increase the electricity generation capacity of future hydropower projects by 93 % to 167 % under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The construction of robust multipurpose dams may potentially reduce flood risks in downstream areas during peak flows, while also supplying water for hydropower generation and irrigation during low flows. This, in turn, may enhance the resilience of both the hydropower and agriculture sectors in the face of climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142359150","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Habitat availability decline for waterbirds in a sensitive wetland: Climate change impact on the Ebro Delta","authors":"Andrés De la Cruz ,&nbsp;Catherine Numa","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110896","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110896","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The highly biodiverse, productive and vulnerable areas, such as coastal wetlands, are increasingly threatened by human-induced disturbances, resulting in habitat loss. This habitat loss is a critical driver of biodiversity decline and significantly impacts species distribution and behavior, increasing the risk of extinctions. To address these concerns, we developed a Species Distribution Model (SDM) using a decade-long dataset of waterbird functional group occurrences in the Ebro Delta, with a particular focus on the Ardeidae family, which represents the most prominent species in the wetland. This model aims to predict potential habitat loss under various climate change scenarios, specifically those outlined in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, across three distinct time periods.</div><div>Our SDM revealed that habitat suitability for waterbirds was notably influenced by temperature variations, increased cumulative precipitation, and lower terrain elevation. Predictions indicate an increase in available habitat for these waterbird species over the study periods considering the specified climate scenarios. However, the incorporation of sea-level rise and flooded areas into the models unveiled a dramatic decline in available areas for waterbirds in the long-term, reaching up to 50 % (RCP 4.5) and 70 % (RCP 8.5) reduction.</div><div>Our study highlights the urgent need for conservation efforts to mitigate the substantial reduction in available habitat for waterbirds. This need is especially crucial due to the Ebro Delta's importance as a vital coastal wetland for many thousands of waterbirds throughout their entire life cycle. Immediate and targeted conservation actions are imperative to safeguard the essential habitats for these species.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142359193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Attributing hypoxia responses of early life Menidia menidia to energetic mechanisms with Dynamic Energy Budget theory","authors":"Teresa G. Schwemmer ,&nbsp;Roger M. Nisbet ,&nbsp;Janet A. Nye","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110889","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110889","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ocean deoxygenation is intensifying worldwide due to warming and eutrophication, particularly in estuaries and coastal waters. Although the Atlantic silverside (<em>Menidia menidia</em>) is tolerant of the fluctuating environmental conditions in its estuarine habitat, chronic hypoxia impairs hatching, growth, and survival in the early life stages. We used a simplified version of a Dynamic Energy Budget model (DEBkiss) to test the hypothesis that experimentally observed changes in animal performance can be explained by one or more of the rate processes in the model. We sought to identify the DEBkiss parameters that, when adjusted with a correction factor based on inhibition of Synthesizing Units, provided the best fit to hypoxia effects in the three state variables of total length, egg buffer mass, and survival over time. Because hypoxia reduces survival in embryos and newly hatched larvae, we added a survival state variable controlled by pre- and post-hatching mortality parameters. Applying the hypoxia effects to reduce the conversion efficiency of assimilates to structure accounted for some of the hypoxia-related changes in all three state variables. However, the best fit was achieved by simultaneously reducing the conversion efficiency and increasing both mortality parameters. In contrast, changing the parameter for maintenance rate with hypoxia provided little to no improvement of fit to the data. Reduced conversion efficiency under hypoxia would suggest that less of the energy invested by parents and consumed through predation is converted into biomass in <em>M. menidia</em> offspring, with implications for size at age that could threaten recruitment and alter the flow of energy through the food web.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142359673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How much is enough? Optimizing beehive stocking densities to maximize the production of a pollinator-dependent crop","authors":"Andrés F. Ramírez-Mejía ,&nbsp;Natacha P. Chacoff ,&nbsp;Pablo Cavigliasso ,&nbsp;Pedro G. Blendinger","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110891","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110891","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Animal pollination is essential to guarantee the economic viability of pollination-dependent crops, and honeybees (<em>Apis mellifera</em> L.) play a central role as the most used species worldwide for pollination service management. Despite its importance, recommendations on honeybee hive stocking density are based on rules of thumb that assume hives as standardized units and do not consider the contingencies of the crop's pollen deposition demand. We developed a mechanistic simulation model to assess the consequences of variant hive quality and stocking density scenarios for blueberry productivity per hectare. To do so, we used Bayesian models, field experiments and secondary information to parametrize the simulation and estimate flower visitation rate, pollen deposition, and fruit production at the crop level. We found that maximizing pollen deposition at the crop level can be achieved with seven high quality-hives ha⁻¹ (20000 bees colony⁻¹), whereas reaching similar levels of pollination with conventional hives (10000 bees colony⁻¹) would require 20 hives ha⁻¹. Also, optimal hive stocking densities to maximize blueberry yield ha⁻¹ needs four high quality-hives ha⁻¹, whilst similar levels of productivity could be reached with 20 conventional colonies ha⁻¹. From an economic and productive perspective, a lower unit rental price for conventional hives compensates for the use of less, but more expensive, high quality hives. Therefore, deciding using either low or high-quality hives should be based on, for instance, the logistic implications of using ∼2.5 more hives ha⁻¹ and the consequences of using colonies with a poorer sanitation state for pollination service stability. Our work set the basis for a more biological and evidence-based protocol for honeybee hive management in blueberry crops. Indeed, integrating honeybee and blueberry pollination ecology, we provide a pragmatic approach to maximize crop productivity based on the minimum beehive stocking densities that optimize pollen deposition and crop yield ha⁻¹ depending on hive's quality. Knowing such a minimum allows for reduced operation costs for farmers, lower uncertainty of pollinators contribution to crop productivity and the risk of undesirable pollination scenarios, and helps to limit the potential negative impacts of saturating ecosystems with honeybees.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142326877","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Simulation modelling demonstrates differential performance of connectivity methods in their ability to predict genetic diversity in complex landscapes","authors":"Luciano Atzeni ,&nbsp;Samuel A. Cushman ,&nbsp;David W. Macdonald","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110886","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110886","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Context</h3><div>There have been few evaluations of how well different connectivity modelling methods are able to predict the spatial genetic structure and genetic diversity of populations residing in complex landscapes. Given the wide application of connectivity modelling tools in applied conservation planning, it is crucial to broadly evaluate how these models perform across resistance, movement, and population structure conditions in predicting genetic diversity patterns. Such evaluations are critical to provide rigorous, biologically based guidance for conservation and management applications.</div></div><div><h3>Objectives</h3><div>Our goal was to investigate how the predictions of three connectivity models were related to spatial patterns of genetic diversity complex landscapes, considering factors such as population structure, resistance, genetic drift, genetic disequilibrium, and organism movement abilities.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We evaluated the performance of several connectivity methods across seven a priori landscape resistance surfaces to provide a broad assessment of their performance. We used CDPOP, an individual-based, spatially explicit population and genetic simulation model, to simulate genetic diversity across these resistance surfaces. This provided a pool of genetic diversity patterns that were the response factor in our simulation experiment. We then simulated landscape connectivity with several popular connectivity methods, including resistant kernels, Circuitscape, and Pathwalker, and evaluated how well they were able to predict spatial patterns of genetic diversity.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Resistant kernel outperformed other connectivity methods in predicting landscape patterns of genetic diversity. The strongest relationships occurred when the population process has created spatial structure but has not yet led to significant genetic diversity loss due to drift. The time lag disequilibrium was relatively short. Long simulation times resulted in severe reduction in prediction ability due to drift.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>Resistant kernel predictions were much more strongly related to spatial patterns of genetic diversity than were predictions produced by Circuitscape and Pathwalker, across a large combination of population structures. Strong relationships exist between functional connectivity and genetic diversity, with clearer and stronger associations seen in spatial patterns of allelic richness compared to heterozygosity or spatial effective population size. Our results confirm the strong relationship between genetic diversity and population connectivity, and suggest that computationally efficient incidence function algorithms, such as resistant kernel methods, are well suited to predicting functional connectivity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142327066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analyses of the variable selection using correlation methods: An approach to the importance of statistical inferences in the modelling process","authors":"Mauricio Díaz-Vallejo ,&nbsp;Alexander Peña-Peniche ,&nbsp;Claudio Mota-Vargas ,&nbsp;Javier Piña-Torres ,&nbsp;Daniel Valencia-Rodríguez ,&nbsp;Coral E. Rangel-Rivera ,&nbsp;Juliana Gaviria-Hernández ,&nbsp;Octavio Rojas-Soto","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110893","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110893","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Selecting the best set of variables in ecological niche models (ENM) and species distribution models (SDM) has become a topic of interest in correlative models, leading to the use of statistical methods to estimate the relationships between variables. However, selecting sets of variables requires several decisions, such as choosing sources of information (i.e., species records and calibration areas) and statistical methods to optimize the modelling process while preventing the overestimation of parameters. In the present study, we analyzed four scenarios for selecting variables in ENM/SDM, including the implication of using the Pearson and Spearman correlation methods, with two strategies to extract the variables' information: species records and calibration areas. First, we conducted a bibliographic review to determine the most used methods to select variables. 134 of the 150 articles selected applied correlation methods, 47 used Pearson and 18 Spearman, and the remaining 69 did not specify the type of correlation method. Also, 19 articles employed species records, 20 used calibration areas, and 95 did not specify how they selected variables, showing the absence of clarity and consistency in variables selection. Then, we explored the same four combinations for 56 bird species. We conducted normality tests for the variables per species and found a tendency for non-normal distributions. Furthermore, we performed Pearson and Spearman correlations using species records and calibration areas as extraction strategies and discussed the differences between each one. Finally, we built different sets of variables and performance SDM for six species and found that the set of variables selected has a different composition based on their strategy. Our findings highlight the absence of clarity and consistency in describing correlation coefficients commonly used for environmental variable selection and emphasize its significant implications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142327067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Corrigendum to “Site-level and spatially-explicit modelling provides some insights on key factors driving seasonal dynamics of an intertidal seagrass ” [Ecological Modelling 495 (September 2024) 1–13/110802 (13p.)]","authors":"H. Muller ,&nbsp;E. Auclair ,&nbsp;A. Woehrel ,&nbsp;F. Ganthy ,&nbsp;P. Tandeo ,&nbsp;P.PY. Wu ,&nbsp;C. Chercham ,&nbsp;M.P. Marzloff","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110888","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110888","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142592687","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring aquaculture related traits of the grooved carpet shell (Ruditapes decussatus) in relation to other bivalve species using Dynamic Energy Budget theory","authors":"Merel Lanjouw ,&nbsp;Henrice M. Jansen ,&nbsp;Jaap van der Meer","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110883","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110883","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To assess the potential of the grooved carpet shell (<em>Ruditapes decussatus</em>) for aquaculture in Europe, we used Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory to perform extensive parametrization on the species and compared its energy allocation strategy with those of commonly farmed bivalve species: mussels (<em>Mytilus edulis</em> and <em>Mytilus galloprovincialis</em>), oysters (<em>Ostrea edulis</em> and <em>Magallana gigas</em>), the common cockle (<em>Cerastoderma edule</em>), and great scallop (<em>Pecten maximus</em>). The comparison was based on DEB primary parameters relevant to aquaculture production, such as maximum assimilation rate and kappa, which represents the fraction of energy allocated to maintenance and growth, and compound parameters like the von Bertalanffy growth coefficient and maximum storage density. Furthermore, we evaluated the production efficiency at the population level, which represents the ratio of assimilated energy converted into biomass. Our results revealed notable differences in energy utilization strategies among species. However, uncertainties in parameter estimation and environmental factors challenge the direct translation of these parameters to real-world aquaculture, therefore our interpretation focuses on how these parameters might influence a species’ potential for aquaculture. The grooved carpet shell exhibits a balanced energy allocation strategy with a low growth coefficient and low maintenance costs, leading to high production efficiency. Similarly, the common mussel focuses on growth with significant biomass investment over reproduction, while the Pacific oyster and Mediterranean mussel prioritize reproductive development. The flat oyster and scallop demonstrate rapid growth at the cost of the low production efficiencies. The grooved carpet shell and mussels face constraints such as limited reserves, making them comparatively more susceptible to low food quality and quantity. In contrast, high storage densities in species like the common cockle, scallop, and Pacific oyster suggest resilience to fluctuating food conditions. These findings, along with both agreements and discrepancies with existing literature, highlight the need for further experimental research to refine DEB parameters and enhance their application in aquaculture. Overall, the DEB framework proves effective for exploring aquaculture traits across species and underscores the need for additional work on temperature-related processes, life-history events, and morphological variation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142323808","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"One century of carbon dynamics in the eastern Canadian boreal forest under various management strategies and climate change projections","authors":"Abderrahmane Ameray ,&nbsp;Xavier Cavard ,&nbsp;Dominic Cyr ,&nbsp;Osvaldo Valeria ,&nbsp;Miguel Montoro Girona ,&nbsp;Yves Bergeron","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110894","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110894","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Partial cutting has lower canopy removal intensities than clearcutting and has been proposed as an alternative harvesting approach to enhance ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration and storage. However, the ideal partial cutting/clearcutting proportion that should be applied to managed areas of the eastern Canadian boreal forest to enhance long-term carbon sequestration and storage at the landscape scale remains uncertain. Our study projected carbon dynamics over 100 years (2010–2110) under a portfolio of management strategies and future climate scenarios within three boreal forest management units in Quebec, Canada, distributed along an east–west gradient. To model future carbon dynamics, we used LANDIS-II, its Forest Carbon Succession extension, and several extensions that account for natural disturbances in the boreal forest (wind, fire, spruce budworm). We simulated the effects of several management strategies on carbon dynamics, including a business-as-usual strategy (clearcutting applied to more than 95 % of the annually managed area), and compared these projections against a no-harvest natural dynamics scenario. We projected an overall increase in total ecosystem carbon storage, mostly because of increased productivity and broadleaf presence under limited climate change. The drier Western region under climate scenario RCP8.5 was an exception, as stocks decreased after 2090 because of the direct negative effects of extreme climate change on coniferous species’ productivity. Under the natural dynamic scenario, our simulations suggest that the Quebec Forest in the Central and Western regions may act as a carbon sink, despite high fire-related carbon emissions, particularly under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Conversely, the eastern region periodically switched from carbon sink to source following SBW outbreaks, thus being a weak sink over the simulation period. Applying partial cutting to over 50 % of the managed forest area effectively mitigated the negative impacts of climate change on carbon balance, reducing differences in stand composition and carbon storage between naturally dynamic forests and those managed for timber. In contrast, clearcutting-based scenarios, including the business-as-usual approach, substantially reduced total ecosystem carbon storage— by approximately double (10 tC ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) compared to partial cutting scenarios (&lt;5 tC ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹). Clearcutting led to higher heterotrophic respiration due to the proliferation of fast-decomposing broadleaves, resulting in lower carbon accumulation compared to partial cuts. Our findings underscore the importance of balancing canopy removal intensities to increase carbon sequestration and storage while preserving other ecosystem qualities under climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142323809","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}