Ecological Modelling最新文献

{"title":"Simulation of carbon fluxes from Tibetan Plateau grasslands by integrating data assimilation and parameter inversion within the Biome-BGC model","authors":"Jingzhou Zhang ,&nbsp;Tao Zhou ,&nbsp;Li Cao ,&nbsp;Jingyu Zeng ,&nbsp;Yajie Zhang ,&nbsp;Qi Zhang ,&nbsp;Xuemei Wu ,&nbsp;Yancheng Qu ,&nbsp;E. Tan ,&nbsp;Xia Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111335","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111335","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau (QTP) grassland ecosystem is highly sensitive to climate change, but significant uncertainties caused by model parameters and state variables remain in its simulated carbon fluxes. This study integrates data assimilation and parameter inversion within the Biome-BGC model to improve simulation accuracy. By simultaneously optimizing both model parameters across multiple sites and multiple objectives—including gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (RECO), soil carbon, and aboveground biomass—as well as key state variables, such as the leaf area index and soil moisture, this approach addresses limitations in the radiation and soil moisture modules of the Biome-BGC for the QTP. At the site scale, the optimized model improved the GPP simulation accuracy, with an average increase of 0.42 in <em>R</em> ² from 0.41 to 0.83 compared with the original model, whereas the RECO simulation accuracy improved, with an average <em>R</em> ² increase of 0.32 from 0.42 to 0.75. The mean carbon sink of Tibetan Plateau grasslands was 41.47 Tg C yr⁻¹ during 2000–2022, with the eastern region acting as a strong carbon sink, whereas the western region presented weaker carbon sinks or carbon sources. Over these 23 years, the QTP has shown a continuous greening trend, partly because the increase in RECO was smaller than that in GPP. This study presents a new model optimization framework for research on carbon neutrality on the QTP.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111335"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145019145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Enhancing carbon storage through proactively managing fire-prone coniferous mountain forests","authors":"Weichao Guo ,&nbsp;Mohammad Safeeq ,&nbsp;Guotao Cui ,&nbsp;Philip C. Myint ,&nbsp;Panmei Jiang ,&nbsp;Han Guo ,&nbsp;Michael L. Goulden ,&nbsp;Kristen D. Emmett ,&nbsp;Stephen C. Hart ,&nbsp;Roger C. Bales","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111332","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111332","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mountain ecosystems typically serve as carbon (C) sinks. However, studies also suggest that they could be C sources due to climate warming, drought and insect-related mortality, wildfires, and management actions. We applied the Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS), a process-based dynamic vegetation-ecosystem model, to investigate the role of ecosystem management in C storage under Mediterranean climate over the 21^st century. We modified LPJ-GUESS to include implementing mechanical thinning by vegetation size classes, components, and types along with a new mechanistic fire-occurrence model that accounts for wind speed and lightning ignition. Simulations show that mechanical thinning or prescribed fire performed 5-20 years in advance of a high-severity wildfire reduced direct wildfire C emissions by 38-66 %. Our results also show that long-term management actions repeated every 5-20 years, including thinning relatively small trees (diameters up to 7 inches or ∼178 mm), can maintain stable C levels in the forest and lower dead-fuel amounts. We found that, although prescribed fire mitigated wildfire severity, ecosystem C storage from reduced wildfire emissions can be outweighed by the added emissions from the prescribed fire themselves. Thinning plus removing and sequestering the thinned biomass can ensure that forests act as net C sinks through the end of the 21^st century. However, addition of prescribed fire is needed to reduce understory and lower the projected extent of high-severity wildfire. Achieving the competing goals of reducing wildfire and making the Sierra Nevada long-term C sink can be advanced through carefully coordinated thinning, sequestration of thinned biomass, and prescribed fire.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111332"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145004328","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling seasonality of the Babesia canis infection using SEIRS model with periodic contact rate","authors":"Maja Krcmar ,&nbsp;Milica Kovačević Filipović ,&nbsp;Jelena Ajtić","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111334","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111334","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><em>Babesia canis</em> is a canine tick-borne protozoan that can cause acute illness in dogs. Seasonal meteorological factors affect the tick vector activity, thus drive the infection, while climate change reshapes the global map of the tick habitat and the disease prevalence. Clinical characteristics of the infection have been investigated, but the existing body of knowledge has not yet been synthesized in a mathematical model. We here develop a SEIRS-type model to describe the annual prevalence and bi-annual seasonality of the <em>B. canis</em> infection. Specifically, we introduce a time-dependent, periodic rate for conversion of the susceptible dogs into the dogs exposed to the infection, which reproduces two seasonal maxima in the number of infected dogs. The height and timing of the seasonal peaks are modulated by a periodic annual term in the rate function. Varying other model parameters further shows that the length of the mean immunity period is inversely proportional to the number of infected dogs outside the peak seasons, the mean incubation period weakly affects the height of the seasonal peaks and only slightly changes their timing, and the mean infection period governs the ratio of the newly infected dogs and currently infected dogs. Our model reproduces well the temporal evolution seen in the published canine babesiosis data. Further, fitting the model to a selected <em>B. canis</em> data set yields temporal characteristics of the <em>B. canis</em> infection comparable to those reported in the literature, allowing for a future investigation into the underlying physical factors that govern the contact rate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111334"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144988097","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Loop reinforcement as a mechanism of self-organization","authors":"Patrick Kangas","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111324","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111324","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The process of self-organization is critical to understanding the Maximum Power Principle. Self-organization is the process whereby the parts or components of a system become organized so that power (e.g., metabolism when the system is an ecosystem) of the whole system is maximized. H. T. Odum wrote extensively on how self-organization takes place but his conception lacked experimental verification and mechanistic rigor. In other words, he never scientifically demonstrated how self-organization works. In Odum’s thinking, self-organization was a selection process, with similarities but also differences with Darwinian natural selection. He sometime referred to it as a “trial and error”-type process. This presentation reviews Odum’s thinking on the loop reinforcement mechanism of self-organization, which was the main mechanism he discussed. Loop reinforcement in ecosystems means that the species that feeds back energy to bring in the greatest energy (to itself and to the ecosystem) will be selected for in ecological interactions during succession. Thus, the species that brings in the most energy from sources downstream of itself within the networks of the system will be selected for, and as a result the metabolism of the ecosystem will be maximized relative to alternative configurations of the networks. A model demonstration of loop reinforcement in emergy units is given for a plant-herbivore interaction from the literature to provide additional perspective on the existence of the mechanism. The presentation concludes with speculations on how Odum might have derived his understanding of self-organization without conventional scientific demonstration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111324"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144988098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fishing effort displacement drives ecosystem impacts within and beyond marine protected areas","authors":"Logan Binch ,&nbsp;Jan Jaap Poos ,&nbsp;Karen van de Wolfshaar","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111336","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111336","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Anthropogenic pressures associated with fishing activities, although highly regulated, are deleterious to the natural functioning of marine ecosystems. The establishment of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) is often used as a strategy to alleviate pressures faced by vulnerable species and habitats. Current approaches overlook the interconnectedness of species in the wider ecosystem context, governed by food web dynamic processes. There is a growing recognition of the importance of adopting Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management (EBFM) strategies to ensure the resilience and sustainability of marine ecosystems. Our research utilises a North Sea food web model to test MPA designations in the context of potential changes to the distribution of bottom trawl fishing effort. We investigate three different fishing scenarios and consider, not only the impacts on target species, but also the effects that emerge from food web dynamic interactions at the ecosystem level. Our findings show that reducing bottom trawl fishing effort generally leads to increased biomass and greater typical length, particularly inside and adjacent to MPAs. Impacts extend beyond just target species with indirect effects observed for pelagic species, driven by cascading food web interactions. Protected, Endangered, and Threatened (PET) species responses to MPA implementation are limited but remain positive. From a fisheries perspective, total catch is maximised when fishing effort is proportionally redistributed across active fishing grounds rather than concentrated at MPA boundaries. At the ecosystem level, reduced fishing effort is associated with an increase in community mean mature trophic level and a flattening of the size-spectra slope. Collectively, our findings highlight that while fishing effort management can deliver ecological benefits, spatial closures alone may be insufficient if effort is merely redistributed rather than reduced.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111336"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144996598","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrating interspecific traits into biophysical models of seagrass dispersal","authors":"Douchan Hanuise ,&nbsp;Thomas Dobbelaere ,&nbsp;Severine Choukroun ,&nbsp;Michael A. Rasheed ,&nbsp;Jonathan Lambrechts ,&nbsp;Paul H. York ,&nbsp;Timothy M. Smith ,&nbsp;Robert G. Coles ,&nbsp;Emmanuel Hanert ,&nbsp;Alana Grech","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111329","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111329","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The resilience of seagrass meadows strongly depends on the dispersal of their propagules, which fosters recovery and replenishment after disturbances. However, predicting dispersal patterns across dynamic coastal environments and large spatial and temporal scales remains challenging due to the lack of empirical observations. Biophysical models, integrating oceanic and atmospheric drivers with species-specific traits such as buoyancy and lifespan, are commonly used to simulate propagule transport. Yet, few studies account for the interspecific and interannual variability inherent in tropical seagrass ecosystems. Here we present a high-resolution seagrass biophysical dispersal model applied to 11 tropical seagrass species across the entire Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area (GBRWHA), Australia, and run this model over a 6-year period (2011–2016). We use this model to assess how the interspecific variability in the buoyancy and windage of seagrass propagules affect their dispersal patterns and how these patterns further vary both seasonally and interannually. Our results reveal that species-specific factors such as their windage and buoyancy, as well as the season and region in which they disperse had the largest influence on dispersal distance. <em>H. spinulosa</em> and <em>S. isoetifolium</em> showed the greatest dispersal in the Whitsunday region, while the wet season promoted higher local retention due to lower wind speeds. From a management perspective, this highlights the need to account for species-specific information when devising seagrass management strategies. The outcomes of this research reveal the inherent complexities of predicting multi-species dispersal over large spatial and temporal scales, with broader implications for predicting dispersal in complex coastal ecosystems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111329"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144988040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Towards a disease digital twin: Howard T. Odum's legacy for cancer biology and medicine","authors":"F. Surra ,&nbsp;L. Conte ,&nbsp;E. Cavarzerani ,&nbsp;F. Rizzolio ,&nbsp;A. Romano ,&nbsp;F. Gonella","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111326","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111326","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Complex systems – such as ecosystems – display non-linear, self-organizing behaviors that go beyond simple cause-effect relationships among individual components: the presence of feedback networks enables responses and adaptations that can only be understood by \"zooming out\" to wider perspectives. In this regard, moving from general systems theory and thermodynamics, H.T. Odum made lasting contributions in developing a quantitative approach for understanding the nature of these fundamental relationships and the dynamical representation of their emergent properties. Among all the realms in which his work was source of novel and influential ideas (e.g., ecology, energy, economics), a new possibility, still underexplored, appears applying the energy system language to study complex biomedical systems. In this framework, complex diseases such incurable cancers and as self-immune diseases arise as systemic features, manifesting the malfunctioning of regulatory control processes and the interactions/crosstalk between cells and their micro-environment. We provide a conceptualization of how Odum’s heritage can help to address the complexity of these malignant, complex ecosystem, laying the foundation for an analytical, dynamical representation of a <em>Disease Digital-Twin</em>, focusing on the evolutionary scenarios for classes of diseases, at different hierarchical and timescales. Finally, we discuss how using data coming from innovative experimental techniques (small Tumor Ecosystems) provides powerful tools for developing a holistic framework for patients’ treatment and general individual health care.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111326"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144932702","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"H.T. Odum’s contributions to springs ecology and treatment wetlands","authors":"Robert L. Knight","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111338","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111338","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Howard T. Odum's ecosystem-level study of Silver Springs introduced landmark concepts in systems theory and ecosystem energetics. Dr. Odum's subsequent work studying the effects of natural and constructed wetlands and marine ponds on water quality purification demonstrated the importance of beneficial interactions between human society and the natural world. This paper recounts some of these early accomplishments of Dr. Odum and illustrates how he helped shape our expanding understanding of the modern world.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111338"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144932704","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modern colonialism in carbon markets? Insights from emergy accounting","authors":"Pedro Pierucci,&nbsp;Feni Agostinho,&nbsp;Federico Sulis,&nbsp;Cecília M.V.B. Almeida,&nbsp;Biagio F. Giannetti","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111327","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111327","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change demands mitigation actions, and the international carbon credit market has emerged as a key strategy, as recognized by the Kyoto Protocol and, more recently, the Paris Agreement. However, carbon credit exchanges between developed and developing countries have increasingly reflected a pattern of Modern Colonialism, as market prices typically based on willingness-to-pay fail to capture the true value of ecosystem services provided by credit-generating countries. To address this imbalance, scientific tools that assess ‘value’ from the donor's perspective are essential, in which Emergy Accounting and its Emergy Exchange Ratio (EER) offers a promising approach. This study applies the EER to assess Brazil's carbon credit transactions from 2004 to 2019. Results show that Brazil exported between 25 and 43 times more emergy than it received in monetary return, indicating a significant ecological-economic imbalance. A biophysical value per ton of CO₂-eq. under the emergy perspective would be up to 40 times higher than market prices, resulting in an estimated cumulative loss of approximately USD 523 million for Brazil over the period analyzed. Although resolving the structural roots of unequal ecological exchange is beyond the scope of this study, our analysis contributes by focusing on one measurable dimension of that inequality. To tackle the disparities identified in Brazil’s carbon credit trade, two main actions are proposed: (i) adjusting the price of carbon credits through diplomatic engagement, active participation in multilateral forums, and the establishment of minimum pricing based on biophysical metrics; and (ii) forming trade partnerships with countries that have higher Emergy per Money Ratios (EMRs), thereby enhancing emergy-based purchasing power. This study highlights the EER as a valuable tool for renegotiating equitable trade terms, guiding the valuation of ecosystem services, and promoting environmental justice. Future work should explore its integration into regulatory frameworks, including Brazil’s upcoming Emissions Trading System, to foster more equitable carbon market dynamics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111327"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144932703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A model for the dynamics of roosting in buildings by a Neotropical aerial-insectivorous bat","authors":"Lilia M. Ladino ,&nbsp;Diana C. Vallejo ,&nbsp;Francisco Sánchez","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111328","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111328","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Some insectivorous bats tolerate urban environments, using buildings as roosts and artificial illumination as foraging patches. These bats have the potential to assist in the control of agricultural pests and disease vectors, but the tools to effectively manage them in urban environments are limited. We constructed a mathematical model to analyze the use of buildings as diurnal roosting sites by Neotropical, aerial-insectivorous bats in an ex-urban environment. For over two years, we did biweekly counts of the number of older (subadult and adult) bats and sucklings of <em>Saccopteryx leptura</em> (family Emballoniridae) in four buildings on a university campus in Colombia. The model fits the observed results for older bats and captures the periodic variation in the number of sucklings over the study period. The model predicts that reducing habitat quality, which we associate with human perturbations, decreases the number of older bats, but not the number of sucklings, unless for substantial perturbations. Increasing precipitation to levels similar to those of La Niña years ameliorates the effects related to habitat deterioration for older bats, but has a minor impact on sucklings. Reducing precipitation to levels close to those of El Niño years can accentuate the effects of habitat deterioration. In conclusion, the model explains the use of the roosting sites through the interaction of mechanisms related to precipitation seasonality, density-dependent effects affecting the gain and loss of individuals, and changes in habitat quality. Thus, the model can evaluate climate and habitat change scenarios relevant to managing and conserving urban bats.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111328"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144921601","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}