Ecological Modelling最新文献

筛选
英文 中文
Partial consistency of net primary productivity and water-carbon use efficiency in response to climate change among three plantations 三种人工林净初级生产力和水碳利用效率对气候变化的部分一致性
IF 3.2 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111378
Chongfan Guan , ShouJia Sun , Jinsong Zhang , Xiaochuang Hu , Zijing Li , Jinfeng Cai , Ping Meng
{"title":"Partial consistency of net primary productivity and water-carbon use efficiency in response to climate change among three plantations","authors":"Chongfan Guan ,&nbsp;ShouJia Sun ,&nbsp;Jinsong Zhang ,&nbsp;Xiaochuang Hu ,&nbsp;Zijing Li ,&nbsp;Jinfeng Cai ,&nbsp;Ping Meng","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111378","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111378","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Currently, most research focuses on changes in forest productivity and evapotranspiration, while relatively less attention has been paid to water and carbon use efficiency and their future trends. This knowledge gap hinders a comprehensive understanding of the dynamic processes and interactions between water and carbon cycles within forest ecosystems. This study aimed to calibrate the parameters of the Biome-BGC model using net primary productivity (NPP) derived from tree-ring data of three plantations. The model was employed to simulate and predict the trends of NPP, evapotranspiration (ET), carbon use efficiency (CUE), and water use efficiency (WUE) under different climate scenarios, analyzing their consistent responses to climate change. The results showed that the simulated NPP (NPP<sub>s</sub>) from the Biome-BGC model showed a highly significant correlation with the measured NPP (NPP<sub>m</sub>) in mature plantations, with the regression slope close to 1:1, indicating the model’s accuracy in simulating ecological variables of mature plantations. Under three climate scenarios, the NPP<sub>s</sub>, ET<sub>s</sub>, and WUE<sub>s</sub> of Mongolian pine were significantly higher than the baseline, while CUE<sub>s</sub> decreased. For black locust and Chinese fir, NPP<sub>s</sub>, ET<sub>s</sub>, and CUE<sub>s</sub> significantly decreased, while WUE<sub>s</sub> exhibited complex changes, with black locust showing a significant increase in WUE<sub>s</sub> under the RCP2.6 scenario. The impacts of all four variables were more pronounced in the far future compared to the near future. For the same species, the responses of NPP, ET, and water-carbon use efficiency to climate change were generally consistent across most sites, though some divergence occurred due to local environmental conditions. In the future, CUE<sub>s</sub> is predicted to decrease across all sites and scenarios, suggesting that carbon consumption through respiration will exceed carbon fixation through photosynthesis, potentially exacerbating future climate warming via negative feedback. Clustering results revealed that as climate change intensifies, the three plantations developed distinct climate response patterns, although consistency within the same species was not absolute. The simulation and prediction results of this study provide valuable scientific insights for the sustainable management of plantations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"511 ","pages":"Article 111378"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145363823","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Temperature- and host-driven model of Phlebotomus papatasi outbreak potential under climate change in Sudan 气候变化下苏丹木瓜白蛉爆发潜力的温度和宿主驱动模型
IF 3.2 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111386
Komi Mensah Agboka , Souleymane Diallo , Iman Brema Hassaballa , Quinto Juma Meltus , Khalid Ahmed , Chrysantus M. Tanga , Tobias Landmann , Elfatih M. Abdel-Rahman
{"title":"Temperature- and host-driven model of Phlebotomus papatasi outbreak potential under climate change in Sudan","authors":"Komi Mensah Agboka ,&nbsp;Souleymane Diallo ,&nbsp;Iman Brema Hassaballa ,&nbsp;Quinto Juma Meltus ,&nbsp;Khalid Ahmed ,&nbsp;Chrysantus M. Tanga ,&nbsp;Tobias Landmann ,&nbsp;Elfatih M. Abdel-Rahman","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111386","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111386","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a major public health concern in Sudan, transmitted by <em>Phlebotomus papatasi</em>, whose survival and reproduction are influenced by temperature and host availability. Despite the known role of environmental drivers, mechanistic, spatially explicit models integrating vector eco-physiology and host accessibility are lacking. To address this, we developed a physiologically structured population model using a temperature-driven Metzler matrix to simulate stage-specific transitions, modulating fecundity by land cover–based host accessibility and scaling persistence with livestock-derived carrying capacity. The resulting suitability index was used to compute spatial outbreak probabilities under historical and projected climate scenarios (2050), validated against occurrence records and endemic foci. The model captured 77 % of endemic sites, reproduced ecological thresholds (with suitability near zero at 15 °C), and identified high-risk regions in southern and western Sudan. Scenario analysis revealed potential emergence in central regions, while extreme warming (SSP5–8.5) reduced suitability in thermally stressed zones. This mechanistic, trait-based framework provides a biologically grounded, spatially explicit tool to anticipate CL outbreak risk, supporting proactive health planning in fragile and conflict-affected settings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"511 ","pages":"Article 111386"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145363814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Towards modeling soil erosion in a perennial ground cover (PGC) system 多年生地被系统土壤侵蚀模拟研究
IF 3.2 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111365
Oluwatuyi S. Olowoyeye , Amy L. Kaleita
{"title":"Towards modeling soil erosion in a perennial ground cover (PGC) system","authors":"Oluwatuyi S. Olowoyeye ,&nbsp;Amy L. Kaleita","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111365","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111365","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Perennial Groundcover (PGC) System combines the growth of two plants (main crop and perennial grass) simultaneously, modeling the system is complicated by the fact that most existing models are incapable of modeling two different vegetations at the same time. We initialized and setup Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) and Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) for years between 1984 and 2020 to accommodate the long-term effect of planting the PGC systems. We used Nashua, in Floyd County, Iowa, with a latitude of 42.94′ N and a longitude of 92.57′ W, as the study area for this simulation. We conducted preliminary assessment of both model using data from literature and a sensitivity analysis on the input data to better understand its influence on the output results and used the same baseline values for the EPIC and APSIM setup. The critical input data include weather, crop, soil-water, and management practices files. The results from EPIC simulation suggest overall reductions in runoff and soil loss rates of 29 % and 74 % with PGC compared to conventional corn, while APSIM gives 14 % and 66 % reductions, respectively. This is the first attempt at soil erosion modeling within the PGC system. It will provide crucial insights for future modelers, establishing key parameters needed to understand its performance across diverse climatic conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"511 ","pages":"Article 111365"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145363824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Evaluating ecological connectivity of key benthic habitats in a dynamic, complex archipelago 动态复杂群岛中关键底栖生物栖息地的生态连通性评估
IF 3.2 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111385
Elina Miettunen , Louise Forsblom, Elina A. Virtanen
{"title":"Evaluating ecological connectivity of key benthic habitats in a dynamic, complex archipelago","authors":"Elina Miettunen ,&nbsp;Louise Forsblom,&nbsp;Elina A. Virtanen","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111385","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111385","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In response to new conservation targets, countries are expanding their marine protected areas (MPAs) to increase protection of species and habitats. A critical aspect in the design of MPAs is ecological connectivity, which can be challenging to account for in areas with fragmented habitats and variable current patterns. We evaluated connectivity in a highly dynamic archipelago in the northern Baltic Sea using a Lagrangian particle tracking model driven by high-resolution, three-dimensional current velocity data, and species distribution models informed by extensive biological surveys. Simulations for the summer season showed low potential connectivity in general, due to variable surface layer currents. With a pelagic larval duration of 30 days, median for potential connectivity between sites 1.5–5 km apart was 11.5% (maximum 43.6%), but declined to 1.3% at distances of 15–25 km and to only 0.02% beyond 50 km. Potential connectivity was higher from north to south than vice versa, indicating that habitats in the northern parts of the study area have a key role in sustaining habitats further south. Therefore, it is essential to maintain these northern habitats in good ecological condition. In contrast, several habitats in heavily eutrophicated inner archipelago areas were effectively isolated, with limited connections to other habitats in the study area. Species recovery in these inner areas may be difficult even with substantial eutrophication mitigation measures, given their poor ecological connectivity. Our findings highlight the importance of high-resolution modelling approaches to capture variable connectivity patterns that are the cornerstone of effective MPA design.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"511 ","pages":"Article 111385"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145325489","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Research on the sustainable development of agricultural ecosystems based on the population and ecological interaction network model 基于人口与生态相互作用网络模型的农业生态系统可持续发展研究
IF 3.2 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111383
Zhenfen Dong, Tengteng Xu, Yuanyu Yang, Jue Wang, Tongtong Jiang, Yuheng Men
{"title":"Research on the sustainable development of agricultural ecosystems based on the population and ecological interaction network model","authors":"Zhenfen Dong,&nbsp;Tengteng Xu,&nbsp;Yuanyu Yang,&nbsp;Jue Wang,&nbsp;Tongtong Jiang,&nbsp;Yuheng Men","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111383","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111383","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To analyze the effects of management practices on long-term sustainability in agricultural ecosystems, an integrated ecological model was developed that incorporates population dynamics and ecological network interactions, with key processes and feedback mechanisms quantified through differential equations. The model simulated the dynamic responses of producers, consumers, and decomposers under various management scenarios. This study was validated using agricultural data from two Indian regions, Bangalore and Mysuru. Spanning 2009–2018, this data represents ecologically suboptimal \"problem scenarios\". The simulation results unveil hierarchical key findings: Firstly, although chemical inputs augment short-term yields, they induce long-term soil degradation and biodiversity loss. Secondly, the reintroduction of native species remarkably enhances system resilience. Thirdly, discontinuing herbicide application initially diminishes producer stability, subsequently leading to declines in diversity and soil health. Fourthly, bat populations, functioning as biological regulators, contribute to the improvement of system stability and productivity. Additionally, organic farming significantly promotes biodiversity and soil quality, despite slight reductions in yield and economic returns. This study corroborates that the developed model can effectively analyze dynamic processes within complex agricultural contexts. Building upon these findings, it furnishes a reliable foundation for simulation and decision support, enabling the assessment of the sustainability of agricultural practices and facilitating the transition toward long-term stability and ecological harmony.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"511 ","pages":"Article 111383"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145325502","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Howard T. Odum’s contribution to Marxian ecological thought 霍华德·t·欧达姆对马克思生态思想的贡献
IF 3.2 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111376
Raffaele Guarino , Enrique Muñoz-Ulecia
{"title":"Howard T. Odum’s contribution to Marxian ecological thought","authors":"Raffaele Guarino ,&nbsp;Enrique Muñoz-Ulecia","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111376","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111376","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article explores Howard T. Odum’s contributions to Marxian ecological thought through an analysis of his energy systems theory, its intersections with Marxian critiques of capitalism, and its relevance for contemporary debates on global ecological crisis and inequalities. We first describe how Odum’s system ecology and environmental accounting can provide complementary insights to inform a biophysical critique of capitalism, by revealing the hidden energy flows that underpin economic processes. In particular, Odum’s concept of emergy and his critique of conventional economics anticipated central debates within ecological economics, notably the need to ground economic analysis in thermodynamic realities and to account for nature’s essential, yet often disregarded, contributions to human well-being. Then, we explore the similarities between Odum’s emergy valuation of real wealth and Marx labour theory of value. Lastly, we connect Odum’s analysis to Marxian ecological theories, particularly the metabolic rift thesis, illustrating how Odum’s quantification of energy hierarchies complements Marx’s historical-materialist critique of capital’s exploitation of socio-economic systems. We argue that integrating Odum’s biophysical perspective with Marx’s critique of capitalism’s exploitative logic provides critical insights into capitalism’s systemic reliance on thermodynamic inefficiency and global resource extraction. This convergence between systems ecology and historical materialism can offer valuable tools to rethink sustainability within social and biophysical planetary boundaries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"511 ","pages":"Article 111376"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145325488","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does meter-scale snow data matter for modeling alpine plant distribution? A comparison of four data sources at two resolutions 米尺度的积雪数据对模拟高山植物分布有影响吗?两种分辨率下四个数据源的比较
IF 3.2 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111366
Andreas Kollert , Kryštof Chytrý , Norbert Helm , Karl Hülber , Dietmar Moser , Johannes Wessely , Stef Lhermitte , Simon Gascoin , Andreas Mayr , Patrick Saccone , Johannes Hausharter , Michael Warscher , Ulrich Strasser , Stefan Dullinger , Martin Rutzinger
{"title":"Does meter-scale snow data matter for modeling alpine plant distribution? A comparison of four data sources at two resolutions","authors":"Andreas Kollert ,&nbsp;Kryštof Chytrý ,&nbsp;Norbert Helm ,&nbsp;Karl Hülber ,&nbsp;Dietmar Moser ,&nbsp;Johannes Wessely ,&nbsp;Stef Lhermitte ,&nbsp;Simon Gascoin ,&nbsp;Andreas Mayr ,&nbsp;Patrick Saccone ,&nbsp;Johannes Hausharter ,&nbsp;Michael Warscher ,&nbsp;Ulrich Strasser ,&nbsp;Stefan Dullinger ,&nbsp;Martin Rutzinger","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111366","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111366","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Snow cover is a crucial driver for plant species distributions in cold environments. The primary source of snow cover data used in distribution models is remotely sensed satellite imagery, which is characterized by coarser spatial resolutions than plot-scale observations of plant distributions. This scale-mismatch was hypothesized to limit model accuracy. Here, we used a common modeling framework to assess the contribution of snow melt-out dates derived from four data sources (satellite imagery, numerical snowpack modeling, webcam imagery and in-situ soil temperature measurements) at 1 m and 20 m spatial resolution to the predictive power of distribution models of 74 plant species in an alpine landscape of the Austrian Alps. We found that &gt;80 % of the distribution models of all species were significantly improved by at least one snow melt-out data set when considering Area Under the Curve (AUC). Satellite-based melt-out led to significantly improved models for the highest number of species (&gt;50 % for AUC) and increased True-Skill-Statistic and AUC on average by 16 % and 5 %, respectively. Surprisingly, fine-scale and in-situ measured melt-out data did not improve models more than the coarser scale (20 m) satellite-based melt-out data. Moreover, numerical snowpack modeling delivered results comparable to the other sources, which supports its use for projecting future species distributions. We conclude that the additional effort needed for producing high resolution, in-situ datasets as compared to commonly used satellite imagery might hence be worthwhile for some species but not for plant distribution modeling in cold ecosystems in general.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"511 ","pages":"Article 111366"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145325501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Household scale Wolbachia release strategies for effective dengue control 有效控制登革热的家庭沃尔巴克氏体释放策略
IF 3.2 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111384
Abby Barlow, Ben Adams
{"title":"Household scale Wolbachia release strategies for effective dengue control","authors":"Abby Barlow,&nbsp;Ben Adams","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111384","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111384","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The release of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes into <em>Aedes aegypti</em> infested areas is a promising strategy for localised eradication of dengue infection. <em>Ae. aegypti</em> mosquitoes favour urban environments as breeding habitats, so are often found in and around houses. Therefore, it is likely that they will infect members of the households that they reside around. Since population groupings within households are small, stochastic effects become important. Despite this, little work has been carried out to investigate the outcome of releasing Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes at a household scale, either from an empirical or a theoretical stand point. In previous work, we developed and analysed a stochastic (continuous time Markov chain) model for the invasion of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes into a single household containing a population of wildtype mosquitoes. In the present study, we extend our framework to a connected community of households coupled by the movement of mosquitoes. We use numerical results obtained via Gillespie’s stochastic simulation algorithm to investigate optimal strategies for the release of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes carried out at either the community or the household scale. We find that household scale releases can facilitate rapid and successful invasion of the Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes into the household population and then into the wider community. We further explore the impact of regular household scale releases of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes for a range of compositions for the release population, time intervals between releases and proportion of households participating in the releases. We find that releasing Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes in a single household can provide protection for that household and an entire community of households if releases are carried out frequently for a number of years and include a sufficient number of female mosquitoes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"511 ","pages":"Article 111384"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145325500","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Study on the relationship between intensive land use and ecosystem service value in Gansu Province 甘肃省土地集约利用与生态系统服务价值关系研究
IF 3.2 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111379
Jiaojiao Lei , Xuelu Liu , Lina Wang , Xiaodan Li , Jin Ma , Lide Zhang , Haiyu Yang
{"title":"Study on the relationship between intensive land use and ecosystem service value in Gansu Province","authors":"Jiaojiao Lei ,&nbsp;Xuelu Liu ,&nbsp;Lina Wang ,&nbsp;Xiaodan Li ,&nbsp;Jin Ma ,&nbsp;Lide Zhang ,&nbsp;Haiyu Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111379","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111379","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Gansu Province is a typical ecological transition zone, where there is a contradiction between land use layout and the enhancement of ecological functions. To clarify the temporal characteristics and mechanisms of intensive land use (ILU) and ecosystem service value (ESV) in this region, this study uses land use grid data and social statistics from 2000,2005,2010,2015, and 2020. Taking 87 counties (districts) in Gansu Province as research units, the study employs a comprehensive evaluation model for intensive land use, the equivalent factor method, and bivariate spatial autocorrelation analysis to explore the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and temporal-spatial correlation degree of intensive land use and ecosystem service value. The research findings indicate: (1) During the study period, the overall level of intensive land use in Gansu Province was predominantly low, with its mean showing an upward trend over time. The low levels were mainly distributed in the Hexi region in the north and the southern regions, while high-level areas were concentrated in the provincial capital region. (2) During the study period, the total value of ecosystem services in Gansu Province showed an increasing trend over time, with a total increase of 17.356 billion yuan, representing a change rate of 7.63 %; spatially, the southwestern Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve and the southeastern Gannan Grassland and Longnan Mountains are high-value areas for ecosystem service values, whereas the northwestern, central, and eastern regions have more unused land, with construction land squeezing ecological space, leading to lower ecosystem service values. (3) From the perspective of temporal linear relationships, there is an extremely significant negative correlation between intensive land use and ecosystem service value (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.01), with a trend of increasing over time; from the perspective of spatial linear relationships, there is also an extremely significant negative correlation at the global scale (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.01), showing an inverted \"U\" shape trend over time, while at the local scale, it mainly follows a low-to-high concentration pattern. The research findings can provide theoretical support for the territorial spatial planning and ecological protection in Gansu Province.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"511 ","pages":"Article 111379"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145325499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unifying occupancy-detection and local frequency scaling (Frescalo) models 统一占用检测和局部频率缩放(Frescalo)模型
IF 3.2 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111367
Oliver L. Pescott
{"title":"Unifying occupancy-detection and local frequency scaling (Frescalo) models","authors":"Oliver L. Pescott","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111367","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111367","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Frescalo’s “local frequency scaling” and classical occupancy-detection models both seek to recover true species-occurrence signals from imperfect data. In this paper, we show that the two approaches rest on the same underlying detection mathematics. Occupancy models treat each site’s repeat visits as independent detection trials and separately estimate occupancy probability and per-visit detectability. Frescalo, by contrast, pools data across ecologically defined neighbourhoods, standardises for uneven effort, and infers a single discovery rate per species plus a species-specific “time-factor” to capture time trends. The occupancy–detection Bernoulli formulation can be linked directly to Frescalo’s Poisson/discovery framework, where occupancy and detectability combine into one rate parameter (which, when sampling is light, closely matches the product of occupancy and per-visit detectability). This connection clarifies how Frescalo’s neighbourhood-scale and time corrections function as a coarser-scale analogue of repeat-visit models. By casting Frescalo in occupancy modelling terms, we hope to promote further investigation into the adoption of occupancy model diagnostics, extensions and other tests within Frescalo analyses, improving transparency and rigour when working with less-structured biodiversity data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"511 ","pages":"Article 111367"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145270765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
相关产品
×
本文献相关产品
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:604180095
Book学术官方微信