Ecological Modelling最新文献

{"title":"Assessing the sustainability of China's coastal regions: A perspective on local coupling and telecoupling","authors":"Miao Hu ,&nbsp;Yongtao Bian ,&nbsp;Guangxing Ji","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110974","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110974","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The transboundary flow of resource elements has resulted in unprecedented transfers of environmental and social impacts, inevitably influencing a region's environmental carrying capacity and sustainability. Consequently, evaluating the effects of both internal and external resource elements on regional sustainability is crucial for advancing sustainable development. This study distinguishes between internal and external resource elements that support the development of China's coastal areas, based on local coupling and telecoupling theories. It employs the emergy analysis method to assess the degree of dependence of these coastal areas on external resource elements, as well as the environmental loading pressures resulting from both internal and external resource elements and evaluates the sustainability of China's coastal regions. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of environmental load pressure were analyzed using the Local Indicators of Spatial Association time path, while the driving forces affecting sustainability were examined through the Logarithmic Mean Divis Index method. The results indicate that social development in China's coastal areas increasingly relies on external resource elements. In Hebei, Liaoning, and Shandong, the environmental load pressure primarily arises from the utilization of internal resources, whereas in Tianjin and Shanghai, it mainly stems from external resources. Overall, the sustainability of China's coastal areas is trending downward. Enhancing emergy intensity, promoting sustainable resource use, and reducing reliance on imported resources can contribute to improved sustainability. Finally, several actionable suggestions are provided.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110974"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159788","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Permafrost environment evaluation of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau based on DPSRC theory and system dynamics","authors":"Yi-Ning Ye ,&nbsp;Ya-Ling Chou ,&nbsp;Dong Zhao ,&nbsp;Wei Cao ,&nbsp;Jia-Wei Xu ,&nbsp;Ai-Jun Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110992","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110992","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As the concept of sustainable development continues to evolve, the changes in permafrost environment under the influence of engineering construction and climate change have received more and more attention from scholars at home and abroad. Herein, to solve the dependence of each factor on time and complexity of the interactions among factors in permafrost environment, a comprehensive evaluation model based on Driving Force-Pressure-State-Response-Control (DPSRC) theory and system dynamics (SD) was proposed. This model can evaluate permafrost environment of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau which is effected by climate change (CC), engineering construction (EC), and artificial prevention measures (APM). The evaluation system of permafrost environment was established according to DPSRC theory. Based on SD, a casual loop model and a stock-and-flow model with three subsystem models were established to evaluate permafrost environment. Then, the validity of the comprehensive evaluation model is verified. Chai-Mu Railway was taken as the research section and set whether to use artificial prevention measures (APM) as the simulation condition to obtain the regional permafrost environment evaluation under different scenarios. The evaluation results show that artificial prevention measures (APM) were necessary for regional permafrost environment, special subgrade (thermosyphon subgrade) treatment was more effective than ecological protection investment. This comprehensive evaluation model was objective and reliable, and can provide a basis for the protection and management of permafrost environment in the future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110992"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143158982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A generalist species of highly specialized individuals?","authors":"S.A. Cushman ,&nbsp;K. Kilshaw ,&nbsp;Z. Kaszta ,&nbsp;R.D. Campbell ,&nbsp;M. Gaywood ,&nbsp;D.W. Macdonald","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111012","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;div&gt;The ecological niche and the species-environment relationship are both cornerstones of contemporary ecological science. The realized habitat niche defines the conditions in which a species occurs, is adapted and can thrive, and quantification of the species-environment relationship is a means to describe the realized habitat niche. A frequent, if unspoken, assumption in analyses of species-environment relationships and the ecological niche is that there is a common, stationary and stable relationship between a species and its environment. This implies, additionally, that this relationship applies to the species as a whole, or rather to all individuals of the species. However, another cornerstone of ecological science is that populations, and even individuals, differ in their genetic characteristics and the environmental influences that shape their behavior. Therefore, the species-environment relationship and the realized habitat niche are likely to vary intra-specifically. Uniformity in behaviour under different ecological circumstances or genetic homogeneity in response to spatially varying limiting factors are assumptions that should be investigated and tested. In this paper, using European wildcat (&lt;em&gt;Felis silvestris)&lt;/em&gt; x domestic cat &lt;em&gt;(F.catus)&lt;/em&gt; hybrids in Scotland as a policy-relevant exemplar, we explore what ecological modellers call nonstationary habitat use, and what field ecologists call individual variation, or, with an evolutionary perspective, intra-specific variation. We analyze the occurrence patterns and ecological response curves of 14 individual wildcat hybrids distributed across Scotland to assess how much individual variation there is in expressed patterns of habitat association across multiple environmental variables. We propose three conceptual models corresponding to three divergent patterns of habitat association for the sampled population: stationary generalist, stationary specialist, and nonstationary specialist. Each of these alternative hypotheses of habitat selection for wildcat hybrids had unique expectations for the shape and overlap of response curves along environmental variables, and for the degree of overlap between used and available habitat among individuals. We were able to show a high degree of individual heterogeneity and specialization across our small but geographically widespread sample. Our results support the hypothesis that wildcat hybrids in Scotland are nonstationary habitat specialists. That is, the habitat associations of wildcat hybrids are highly heterogeneous at an individual level, and that pooled analyses across individuals fails to completely represent the range or variation of individual responses, and also fails to represent the actual habitat selection response curves of any individual. This provides a compelling example of the highly variable and heterogenous nature of habitat association within a single species. Our results support other recent studies where specie","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 111012"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Addressing Data Limitations to Explore Management Strategies and Adaptations Using Stylized Agent-Based Modeling: A Case Study of Socio-Environmental Systems","authors":"Mehrsa Pouladi ,&nbsp;Parsa Pouladi ,&nbsp;Saba Naderian Jahromi ,&nbsp;Foad Namjoo","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110997","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110997","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This research employs a stylized agent-based model to investigate the complex interactions between human activities and environmental processes, focusing on the Lake Urmia Basin. A key contribution of this study is promoting the application of stylized ABMs to tackle socio-environmental challenges, especially when nonlinearity and multifaceted dynamics make it difficult to compile comprehensive data for developing management strategies. The primary objective of the model is to simplify these intricate dynamics, making it easier to explore key drivers of water resource depletion and system resilience. By abstracting the system, the model allows examination of various scenarios—such as improvements in irrigation efficiency and crop management strategies—without the need for detailed real-world data. Over 100 agricultural years (timesteps), the model simulates agricultural impacts on lake water area, irrigation practices, and farmer decision-making, highlighting critical feedback loops between human behavior and environmental outcomes. The benefits of this stylized modeling approach include its flexibility in testing hypothetical scenarios and its capacity to isolate key variables that influence the dynamics of human-environment systems. This simplicity allows researchers to identify broad patterns of behavior and system responses, making it an effective tool for evaluating water management strategies. The results show that while increasing irrigation efficiency and reducing water-intensive crops can delay system collapse, the most successful scenario requires both interventions at their highest levels. However, a more practical approach involving moderate improvements in both areas could significantly enhance the system's resilience. This research emphasizes the advantages of stylized ABMs in supporting sustainable water management practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110997"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143158988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Simulating endogenous institutional behaviour and policy implementation pathways within the land system","authors":"Yongchao Zeng ,&nbsp;Joanna Raymond ,&nbsp;Calum Brown ,&nbsp;Mohamed Byari ,&nbsp;Mark Rounsevell","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111032","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111032","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Policy interventions have substantial effects on land use change, providing key levers for multiple objectives, including mitigating climate change and biodiversity loss, and maintaining food security. Policy effects are often complicated, conflicting, and subject to regular change. Despite this, land system models typically treat policies as simple, exogenous modifications to models. To better represent the dynamic nature of policy-making, we develop an endogenous institutional model that can be embedded within land system models, here exemplified by an agent-based model. Numerical experiments are conducted to examine an institution with two policies targeting the production of ecosystem services. We find a clear scope for simulation-based exploration of policy-making, with emergent processes including the marginal diminishing effect of economic policy interventions, asymmetric spill-over effects for different ecosystem services, and trade-offs between policy goals. The endogenous institutional model demonstrates the potential to reveal various emergent patterns with important consequences for land systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 111032"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143158996","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring physiological constraints on life-history traits using Dynamic Energy Budgets","authors":"Mélanie Debelgarric,&nbsp;Charlotte Récapet","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110993","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110993","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A current challenge in predicting species responses to global change is to understand evolutionary responses to rapidly changing environments and novel environmental conditions. It has been hypothesised that the speed of evolution would be contingent uponhighly dependent on evolutionary constraints shaped by resource allocation trade-offs and other physiological mechanisms underlying the expression of traits. However, the majority of models employed to investigate life-history evolution remain phenomenological in nature. They fail to incorporate realistic mechanisms for the transfer and transformation of resources that are in accordance with the established laws of physics and chemistry. Our objective was therefore to explore the full range of life-history strategies that are genuinely available to organisms through realistic metabolic processes and to compare them with the predictions made by classical life-history theories. To this end, we employed the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory to model the energy allocation of individuals. We studied inter-individual variation by varying the value of energetic primary parameters (i.e. physiological processes) of the model, under constant environmental conditions (optimal temperature and ad libitum food source). Physiological processes that impact both growth and reproduction, such as energy acquisition, allocation and mobilisation, were found to reproduce the predictions of life-history theory to a certain extent. However, some discrepancies remained, mainly because DEB theory accounts for physiological retro-actions that are not articulated in life-history theories. For example, quicker growth had an indirect impact on reproduction and ageing through respectively increased resource acquisition and dilution of damage-inducing compounds. Based on those insights, we propose future directions to integrate physiology, and in particular metabolism, into models of life-history evolution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110993"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159371","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Machine learning emulators of dynamical systems for understanding ecosystem behaviour","authors":"Oriol Pomarol Moya ,&nbsp;Siamak Mehrkanoon ,&nbsp;Madlene Nussbaum ,&nbsp;Walter W. Immerzeel ,&nbsp;Derek Karssenberg","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110956","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110956","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Minimal models (MM) aim to capture the simplified behaviour of complex systems to facilitate system-level analyses that would be unfeasible with more sophisticated numerical models. However, the choices involved in minimal model development heavily rely on expert knowledge, a source of bias that can interfere with good modelling practices. In this paper, a new method is proposed in which a machine learning (ML) model is trained with transient data generated by a detailed physically-based numerical model, predicting the rate of change of the target state variables given their current value and additional drivers. The trained model is then used to mimic the analysis made with traditional minimal models. This approach (ML-MM) is deployed in a semiarid hillslope ecosystem characterising its soil and vegetation components. The ML-MM outputs share most of the general features with previous expert-based results but show a better ability of the hillslope to (1) recover its vegetation, (2) resist total disappearance of the soil and (3) reach substantially higher soil depths in steady state. Furthermore, a new intermediate stable equilibrium is found between the already known healthy and degraded ones, revealing a more complex pattern of ecosystem collapse that avoids a critical shift, as supported by numerical model simulations. The transient behaviour is also investigated, from which we conclude that the system can exhibit strong reactivity, that is, an initial deviation away from equilibrium after a perturbation. In conclusion, the present study demonstrates the potential of ML-MM to obtain new scientific insights on complex systems that might be missed by expert-based alternatives. Hence, minimal models may benefit greatly from incorporating detailed numerical models and data-driven simplification in their development process. Ultimately, this methodology could be applicable to many fields of study and even be expanded to observational data, enhancing our understanding of real-world complex system dynamics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110956"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159787","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A process-based dynamic modelling study of the impact of discharge water from shrimp culture on riverine nitrogen cycling: A case study","authors":"Suvendu Das ,&nbsp;Sagar Adhurya ,&nbsp;Prithwi Ghosh ,&nbsp;Santanu Ray","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110995","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110995","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Shrimp is the primary aquaculture product exported from India in the global market. The shrimp industry contributes to the economic boom in the coastal provinces of India. However, shrimp culture imposes several externalities on the local ecosystem. One of the vital concerns is the nutrient-rich, chemically manipulated culture water discharge, which causes violations of sustainable and cleaner shrimp culture protocols. This study aims to understand the impacts of culture water on the nitrogen cycle of the river. The water is periodically released back into the river through a canal from the shrimp farms. This study was conducted by building a process-based system dynamic model following modelling protocols. The model was simulated, calibrated, and validated with the observed data collected from periodic sampling from the river, shrimp farms, and canals. Seven state variables were considered, and sediment nitrogen was treated as a single state variable. The interrelationship between different state variables was established by the inflows and outflows, incorporating several parameters. Study results indicate that <em>NOx</em> (nitrate and nitrite) is the main nutrient influx from the culture water. The model is a good predictor for the water column nitrogen components. The ecological functionality by different rate parameters of biotic components (Zooplankton and Phytoplankton) are not sensitive for this model's nitrogenous state variables. By the model outcomes, no direct relation between shrimp culture and the abundance of biotic components of this model can be established. Sediment nitrogen acts as the sink for the water column nitrogen components. This modelling study focuses on one of the river's vital regulatory ecosystem services, <em>i.e</em>., the nitrogen cycle. This model can be implemented to predict the impacts of any water discharge from such production on the nitrogen cycle of a lotic system. The study is important for establishing viable production protocols to achieve a sustainable balance between the shrimp production industry and the ecosystem.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110995"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling polar bear (Ursus maritimus) snowdrift den habitat on Alaska's Beaufort Sea coast using SnowDens-3D and ArcticDEM data","authors":"Glen E. Liston ,&nbsp;Katherine B. Gura ,&nbsp;Justin A. Crawford ,&nbsp;Lori Polasek ,&nbsp;Craig J. Perham ,&nbsp;Lori Quakenbush ,&nbsp;Adele K. Reinking ,&nbsp;Jewell Lund ,&nbsp;Sarah M. Chinn ,&nbsp;Richard T. Shideler ,&nbsp;Ryan R. Wilson","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110939","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110939","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Pregnant polar bears (<em>Ursus maritimus</em>) excavate maternal dens in seasonal snowdrifts during fall along Alaska's Beaufort Sea coast to shelter their altricial young during birth and development. With recent sea ice decreases, bears are denning more frequently on land. Each year, the weather and blowing-snow conditions control the creation of snowdrifts across the landscape. Therefore, available snowdrift den habitat can vary widely from one year to the next, depending on the late fall and early winter air temperature, snowfall, and wind speed and direction. We implemented a physics-based, spatiotemporal, polar bear snowdrift den habitat model (SnowDens-3D) across the eastern Alaska Beaufort Sea coast (an area of approximately 17,000 km²). High-resolution (2.0 m) topography data were provided by the ArcticDEM, and daily meteorological forcings were provided by NASA's MERRA-2 reanalysis. In many areas across the Arctic Alaska simulation domain, the raw ArcticDEM data contained physically unrealistic topographic anomalies (bumps and depressions) of similar magnitude (± 1.5 m) to the topographic variations that underlie potential den habitat (height differences of approximately 1.5 m). To create an ArcticDEM dataset for this den habitat model, considerable pre-processing of the ArcticDEM data was required; we implemented numerous filters to remove the topographic anomalies while preserving those topographic features capable of creating snowdrifts deep enough to provide viable polar bear den habitat. A 21-year (2000–2020) SnowDens-3D simulation was performed, and model outputs were compared with 91 historical polar bear den locations. The year-specific simulations identified viable den habitat for 98% of the observed den locations. The interannual variation in den habitat area over the 21-year period ranged by approximately a factor of three from the minimum year (2001; 554 km²) to the maximum year (2017; 1,566 km²). The ability to identify viable polar bear snowdrift den habitat in near-real time, as demonstrated here, will help wildlife managers and industry personnel identify potential polar bear maternity den sites and minimize disturbance to occupied dens.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110939"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159919","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global sensitivity analysis of the harmonized Lemna model","authors":"Chloé Guisnet ,&nbsp;Stefan Reichenberger ,&nbsp;Elena Alonso García ,&nbsp;Frank Voss","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111016","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111016","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mechanistic effect modelling is becoming increasingly important for environmental risk assessment in the framework of pesticide authorization. For instance, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has judged the model for the aquatic macrophyte test organism <em>Lemna</em> as “ready for use.” Nevertheless, national regulatory authorities are still hesitant to accept mechanistic effect modelling studies.</div><div>In order to increase the confidence in the Lemna model, in this study we performed a two-step global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of the harmonized model. GSA notably allows identifying and ranking the importance of i) toxicokinetic (TK) and toxicodynamic (TD) parameters, ii) physiological and ecological parameters, iii) environmental driving variables, and iv) initial conditions.</div><div>In a first step a Morris sensitivity screening was conducted to filter out non-influential input factors. In a second step, a true variance-based GSA was carried out with the Sobol method. The GSA was conducted for four different concentration levels and three different exposure regimes: constant, pulsed and realistic. Moreover, two different sets of input distributions of TKTD parameters were examined. The target variables were the effects of the pesticide on <em>Lemna</em> biomass and average growth rate.</div><div>Both Morris and Sobol GSA showed that for a specific substance three physiological parameters (optimum and minimum growth temperature, maximum photosynthesis rate) and the initial biomass BM0 were more important than the five TKTD parameters. Hence, for predictive applications of the model outside a laboratory context, BM0 must be chosen carefully, and uncertainty in the main physiological parameters must be reduced to a minimum.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 111016"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}