Ecological Modelling最新文献

{"title":"Spatial and physiological detail in crown representation matters when simulating tree growth","authors":"Jorad de Vries,&nbsp;Eva Meijers,&nbsp;Marleen A.E Vos,&nbsp;Frank J. Sterck","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111358","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111358","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change is projected to expose nearly 70 % of tree species to novel temperature and moisture regimes. Process-based models offer a powerful approach to predict how forests might respond to these unprecedented climates. However, process-based forest models commonly assume spatial homogeneity along one or more spatial axes, which limits their ability to fully capture the interplay between forest structure and tree functioning. Here, we present ForSTEM, a novel process-based, individual-based, spatially explicit modelling approach that simulates inter-annual variation in tree growth by capturing interactions between forest structure, microclimatic conditions, and tree physiology. Our first aim was to validate ForSTEM on dendrochronological data using five output metrics that span a range of time scales and crown dominances (dominant, co-dominant and suppressed) in three tree species (<em>Pseudotsuga menziesii, Pinus sylvestris</em>, and <em>Fagus sylvatica</em>) growing in the Netherlands. The model made robust predictions of long-term (30 year) tree growth at both the plot (R²=0.95) and individual tree levels (R²=0.76), as well as short-term (intra-annual) growth patterns (R²=0.23-0.66), but not at a yearly time scale (R²=0.02-0.2). Our second aim was to test whether model predictions improve with an increase in spatial detail in crown representation and leaf plasticity to micro-climatic conditions within the crown. Our findings showed that predictions of long-term forest growth can be improved by a detailed representation of the dynamic link between canopy structure and leaf functioning at small spatial scales, but also that major knowledge gaps remain in predicting variation in inter-annual growth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"511 ","pages":"Article 111358"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145204441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bayesian model averaging of climate-dependent forest models using Expectation–Maximization","authors":"Nicolas Picard ,&nbsp;Nikola Besic ,&nbsp;Modeste Meliho ,&nbsp;Julien Sainte-Marie ,&nbsp;Frédéric Mortier ,&nbsp;Myriam Legay","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111355","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111355","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the context of rapid climate change, climate-dependent models are essential for assessing species vulnerability. However, variation in model structure and divergence in their predictions introduce substantial uncertainty. Rather than selecting a single “best” model, a more robust strategy is to integrate predictions across models. Bayesian model averaging with Expectation–Maximization (BEM) provides an alternative to simple model averaging (SMA) and weighted model averaging (WMA) for combining ensemble predictions. To date, BEM has been rarely applied to tree species distribution models. We developed a BEM framework for models predicting either species occurrence or proxy variables linked to occurrence. The approach was applied to European beech (<em>Fagus sylvatica</em>) in France, using an ensemble of six models: four species distribution models, one model predicting the probability of hydraulic failure, and one model predicting juvenile productivity. In contrast to SMA and WMA, which assigned similar weights across models, BEM concentrated 85% of the weight on two models. Furthermore, BEM enabled spatially explicit decomposition of model weights, allowing us to identify regions where predictions diverged most strongly. The resulting probability maps revealed a specific zone in environmental space where model agreement on beech occurrence was particularly limited. Focusing on this zone may help refine projections and shed light on the ecological mechanisms that enable local persistence.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111355"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145157800","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating ecological redline policies: Integrating multi-scenario land use simulation with ecological network analysis","authors":"Yan Zhang ,&nbsp;Xinyi Yin ,&nbsp;Yufei Li ,&nbsp;Junqing Wei ,&nbsp;Haofeng Wang ,&nbsp;Peiheng Yu ,&nbsp;Yiyun Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111357","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111357","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ecological redlines (ERLs) are vital for conserving key ecological spaces and maintaining ecosystem connectivity. While existing research has focused primarily on ERLs delineation, less attention has been paid to assessing their impacts. To address this gap, we proposed an innovative framework integrating multi-scenario land use simulation and ecological network analysis to evaluate ERLs policy effectiveness. Using Wuhan as a case study, we simulated land use under four scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU), ecological baseline (EBL), ecological development line (EDL), and ecological redline (ERL). Subsequently, ecological network construction and connectivity analysis were implemented. The results revealed that: (1) ERLs implementation significantly protects cultivated land and curbs urban expansion. (2) Different ERLs vary in effectiveness: The EBL scenario optimizes large-scale ecological source protection; the EDL scenario features the highest number and longest total corridor length; the ERL scenario minimizes the number and area of ecological barrier points. (3) ERLs implementation does not significantly enhance overall network connectivity. (4) Most network indicators under the ERL scenario fall between the EBL and EDL results, demonstrating policy trade-offs in ecological protection. This study provides scientific references for the delineation, evaluation and optimization of ecological policy for sustainable development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111357"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145157799","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparison of marginal and mixed-effects complementary log-log regression models for predicting planted silver birch mortality","authors":"Jouni Siipilehto,&nbsp;Daesung Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111349","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111349","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mortality is a key process in forest succession, yet modelling individual tree mortality presents significant challenges. In this study, tree mortality models for silver birch (<em>Betula pendula</em> Roth.) were developed to address these complexities. The modelling data comprised thinning trials for planted silver birch established between 1981 and 1991 in southern and central Finland. Thirteen experiments were established on former agricultural land and eight experiments were on forest land. The test data comprised planted silver birch stands of a spacing trial established on agricultural land in the early 1970s. The modelling options included four different types of models based on different random effect structures: a marginal model without random effects, a random site as RND_SITE, a random plot nested within the site designated as RND_PLOT(SITE), and a random year nested within the site designated as RND_YEAR(SITE) in a linear mixed-effects complementary log-log (CLL) regression. The CLL models were evaluated according to fit statistics, with the RND_YEAR(SITE) model demonstrating the best results. Furthermore, all mortality models were implemented into the MOTTI simulator to evaluate the development of planted silver birch stands in terms of stem number (<em>N</em>, trees ha⁻¹) and stand basal area (<em>G</em>, m² ha⁻¹). In the MOTTI evaluation, unthinned stands were selected, and the data were divided into density groups: initially dense (<em>N</em> &gt; 2000 trees ha⁻¹), normal density stands (1000 trees ha⁻¹ ≤ <em>N</em> ≤ 2000 trees ha⁻¹), and sparse stands (<em>N</em> &lt; 1000 trees ha⁻¹). The independent dataset demonstrated optimal performance with the RND_YEAR(SITE) model. The current MOTTI model performed generally well but underestimated <em>N</em> and <em>G</em> for the normal density stands compared to the new model options. Finally, when examining the compatibility of the RND_YEAR(SITE) model with the existing and recently introduced stand self-thinning models, the recent model demonstrated high compatibility, while the existing model showed a clear underestimation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111349"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145157770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Are locally trained allometric functions of forest aboveground biomass universal across spatial scales and forest disturbance scenarios?","authors":"Benedikt Hartweg ,&nbsp;Leonard Schulz ,&nbsp;Andreas Huth ,&nbsp;Konstantinos Papathanassiou ,&nbsp;Lukas W. Lehnert","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111339","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111339","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Large scale above-ground-biomass (AGB) estimation remains highly uncertain. Multi-sensor, multi-scale and multi-temporal analyses are crucial for capturing the dynamics and the heterogeneity of forests. The European Space Agency’s BIOMASS mission will play a key role in future biomass monitoring. Considering the differences in the spatial scales of input datasets, it is essential to investigate these scale effects. This study examines whether locally trained allometric relationships between forest height and AGB are scale-dependent and how forest disturbances impact these estimates.</div><div>Using the forest gap model FORMIND, initialized with inventory data from tropical lowland forests close to Manaus (Brazil), we simulated forest height and AGB raster products at resolutions ranging from 20 m to 200 m based on various forest height metrics. Through regression analysis, allometric parameter sets for each resolution step were derived. We then tested the impact of applying these parameters under various conditions, including off-scale and off-scenario usage.</div><div>Our results show that applying allometric parameters at mismatched spatial scales introduces significant additional errors. This error becomes more prominent as scale differences increase. Additionally, the type and severity of forest degradation scenario strongly influences the estimation quality. However, dynamically adapting allometric parameter sets to local conditions mitigates these errors. Applying the locally trained parameters to varying disturbance scenarios results in substantial errors, underscoring the importance of incorporating local forest structure in AGB models.</div><div>While using off-scale allometric parameters is possible, it introduces additional challenges. Our study highlights the need for local forest structure products to improve large-scale AGB estimation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111339"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145117520","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"H.T. Odum and sustainable development","authors":"Erik Grönlund","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111352","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111352","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>H.T. Odum did not use explicitly the concepts of sustainability or sustainable development in his writings to any large extent. This is not surprising since the concepts were not established until late in his career. When he explicitly used the concepts, his focus was mainly on pulsing patterns, where oscillations can form a quasi-steady state when considered over a longer period. For humanity Odum showed special interest in the descent phase of the current extraordinary fossil fuel pulse, and used the concept ”a prosperous way down” to address the possibilities alongside the challenges in this phase. Not using the concepts did not mean that Odum was not interested in the concepts. On the contrary, Odum’s legacy does include features that are important to other parts of the sustainability debate beyond just a possible descent. Of high interest is the normalization procedure that merge natural science based flows of energy, matter, and information, with flows of money, and present them all in the same unit: solar emjoules (sej). This aspect and the strong network focus aspect in Odum’s publications render his analyses as highly relevant to sustainability questions. Two main aspects of sustainable development and sustainability not addressed by Odum were considered and addressed in this paper with H.T. Odum’s Energy Systems Language: 1) economic capital substitution connected to the paradigms strong and weak sustainability, and 2) limits or no limits. Of them only the paradigm of limits was found to have been addressed by H.T. Odum.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111352"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145117653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Implications of trends in net energy return of energy sources for climate and society: revisiting H.T. and Elisabeth Odum’s “a prosperous way down”","authors":"Elliott T. Campbell","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111347","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111347","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><em>A Prosperous Way Down</em>, a book by H.T. and Elisabeth Odum, was published nearly 25 years ago. It contained important predictions for the future of energy use and society. This work revisits some of those predictions and the global trends and scientific principles that were presented supporting them. While the guidance and fundamental theory underlying the book of system self-organization for maximum (em)power are just as relevant today as when the book was published, there are significant developments not foreseen, such as the rapid technological improvements in solar and battery storage and the rise of hydraulic fracturing for fossil fuels. While Odum’s foreseen global pathway of peak energy with a steep decline in energy use and related social elements such as the human population have not yet occurred, it remains plausible. The present work theorizes that a more likely future will be characterized by slow growth or steady state in global energy use/economies, compared to the steep descent or crash predicted in <em>A Prosperous Way Down</em>. This conclusion is made based on the observed and expected declining trend in energy return on investment for the global energy base, driven by declining quality of fossil fuel and shifting to renewable energy sources, that have improved in energy return, but have not and are not likely to achieve the historical rate of return observed in fossil fuels during the period of explosive global growth in energy use over the past 150 years.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111347"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145094809","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evolution of climate responses could alter forest dynamics under climate change even over short time-spans","authors":"Dean Wu,&nbsp;Nikole Vannest,&nbsp;Emily V. Moran","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111348","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111348","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change is imposing new selective pressures on organisms, including trees, which may lead to enhanced survival via evolutionary adaptation. Such evolutionary rescue may in turn alter interspecific interactions. We incorporated heritable variation in climate responses into the individual-based forest simulator SORTIE-ND, enabling the modeling of evolutionary change under several potential future climate scenarios over a multidecadal timescale in the Sierra Nevada of California. We find that including heritability of climate responses can indeed influence forest dynamics, but not in a way that can be simply described as “rescue”. This is in part because some species increased their basal area (BA) or stem density under climate change in the no-heritability scenarios; including heritability in some cases increased mortality or otherwise reduced the gains in BA or density of these species. The level of heritability of mortality and growth responses to climate (<em>h²</em> = 0.1 vs. 0.7) usually mattered less than the presence or absence of heritable variation itself. Overall, including heritability in the climate change simulations led to greater increases in BA at the low and mid-elevation sites and less increase at high elevation, and greater decreases in density at the mid and high-elevation sites. The effects of selection may also interact with competition in complex ways. At the high-elevation site the increase in BA was reduced when white fir had a higher heritability than the others or red fir (the most common species and the one driving the BA increase) had lower heritability, but was maintained when the least common species had the highest heritability or white fir had the lowest, both of which likely moderated competitive interactions. These results suggest that where changes in forest composition, more than overall BA, is the response of interest, it may be worth further investigating how individual differences and evolutionary responses in trees may affect climate change responses even over timespans of less than 100 years.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111348"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145094808","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modelling 22-years of changes in productivity of the red sea urchin Loxechinus albus in southern Chile using the pre-image population analysis: insights for fishery and conservation management","authors":"Marco Ortiz ,&nbsp;Josué Diaz","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111345","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111345","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Pre-image population analysis (PPA) corresponds to a graphic method which allows modelling population dynamics, being able to estimate local population growth parameters using time series of biomass and/or abundance. In this work, PPA was performed using two different types of biomass time series of the exploited red sea urchin <em>Loxechinus albus</em> (Molina, 1782) that inhabit three geographical areas in southern Chile estimating changes in productivity over a period of 22 years. Although the magnitudes of biomass in the time series seem to fluctuate in the analyzed time period, the PPA model parameters in terms of <em>x</em>* (equilibrium values) and <em>r</em> (growth rate, used as a proxy for productivity) showed a reduction between ∼15 - 37 % and ∼60 - 71 % respectively, highlighting that the Aisen Region (XI) showed the lowest values in both model parameters. Despite the above, the productivity (<em>r</em>) exhibited chaotic dynamics, reaching a flat level in last years. Based on current outcomes, it is suggested to consider the inter-annual magnitudes of equilibrium values (<em>x</em>*) and productivity (<em>r</em>) when determining the exploitation levels for <em>L. albus</em>. Likewise, the direction of change in transient values of productivity (<em>r</em>) could facilitate the monitoring of local populations of <em>L. albus</em>, providing useful information for the adoption of management decisions, such as the setting of fishing quotas and bans. Therefore, PPA could be a useful and complementary technique in estimating dynamic reference points that improve fisheries-management and conservation programs. Finally, it is recommended that PPA could be used as an easy single-species technique to assess the population dynamics of exploited and protected species.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111345"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145094807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Citizen scientists as butterfly predators: using foraging theory to understand individual recorder behaviour","authors":"Mingrui Li ,&nbsp;Robin J. Boyd ,&nbsp;Chloë Smith ,&nbsp;Richard Fox ,&nbsp;David Roy ,&nbsp;Jonathan Bennie ,&nbsp;Richard H. ffrench-Constant","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111344","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111344","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Citizen science is increasingly important in the collection of biological data. However, to understand the broader utility of the growing number of citizen-derived records, we need to understand exactly how recorder behaviour affects the geographic distribution of records made. Here, we apply an optimal foraging model to citizen science data from the UK to determine how likely a recorder (predator) is to visit any given kilometre square and record a butterfly (prey). By defining the square with the highest density of an individual’s records as their ‘origin’, we show that the probability of visiting a given site depends on its distance from the origin and the rarity-weighted species richness of the species thought to be present. This pattern of behaviour differs between recorders visiting more than or fewer than five squares, termed broad and narrow-range foragers. The model shows that recorder behaviour is driven, in part, by a simple trade-off between distance travelled and the rarity-weighted species richness. This collective behaviour helps explain over-recording by broad-ranging foragers in protected areas at distance and under-recording, by narrow-range foragers, in the wider countryside. It also implies that estimating parameters describing rare species’ distributions (e.g. mean occupancy) will be challenging, since sample inclusion depends on occupancy itself. Mapping rare species’ distributions should be simpler, since the sites at which they can be found tend to be well-sampled, but the same is unlikely to be true of common species, which also occupy areas that are unlikely to be sampled. More work is needed to understand how widely our results can be generalised beyond the UK and the dataset considered.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111344"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145094806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}