Ecological Modelling最新文献

{"title":"A model-based policy analysis framework for social-ecological systems: Integrating uncertainty and participation in system dynamics modelling","authors":"Henry Amorocho-Daza ,&nbsp;Janez Sušnik ,&nbsp;Pieter van der Zaag ,&nbsp;Jill H. Slinger","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110943","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110943","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Problems manifested within social-ecological systems (SES) exhibit dynamic complexity and hold implications for current and future human well-being and environmental sustainability. The complexity of these issues, the ever-present uncertainty inherent to SES, and the multi-stakeholder settings in which they are discussed call for participatory modelling to support decision-making on socio-environmental issues. Yet, this challenging endeavour requires a structured approach — a modelling cycle — to facilitate engagement with the implications of participation and uncertainty as focal points for Good Modelling Practice (GMP). Here we propose an integrated policy analysis framework for SES modelling using System Dynamics (SD). This framework stems from integrating two existing modelling cycles that individually consider participation and uncertainty in SD modelling. Three global modelling phases and a set of tools to address the participation and uncertainty features in SES modelling are distinguished. The framework contributes to mainstreaming GMP, offering a structured model-based approach to enhance the robustness and social acceptance of policies on critical socio-environmental issues.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"499 ","pages":"Article 110943"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142659298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Forest structure, roads and soil moisture provide realistic predictions of fire spread in modern Swedish landscape","authors":"Sara Sharon Jones ,&nbsp;Maksym Matsala ,&nbsp;Emily Viola Delin ,&nbsp;Narayanan Subramanian ,&nbsp;Urban Nilsson ,&nbsp;Emma Holmström ,&nbsp;Igor Drobyshev","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110942","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110942","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent increases in fire activity in Sweden call for the quantification of forest fire susceptibility, in order to develop management strategies to mitigate fire risk. Using the data from 100 large Swedish forest fires (&gt;10 ha), mapped from sentinel-2 images from 2016 to 2022, we explored the predictive power of vegetation properties in estimating relative likelihood of fires within a landscape using logistic regression. To model spatially explicit fire susceptibility within a given landscape, we used the outcome of logistic regression as an input into a cellular automata model (CA model), which simulates fire spread in a 2D grid.</div><div>The CA was model calibrated on three fires that occurred between 2016 and 2022, then verified on six 2023 fires and featured a mean sensitivity of 0.74 and specificity of 0.79. The logistic regression model had an accuracy of 54 %, showing increased fire susceptibility from high Scots pine volume (<em>p</em>-value = 0.02), and decreased fire susceptibility from high volumes of deciduous trees and wet soil. Realistic outcomes of the CA model and reliance of our approach on publicly available data with nation-wide coverage of vegetation cover in Sweden allows for the development of an automated protocol of fire susceptibility assessment at the operational level and its integration in existing decision support systems. This would allow forest owners to obtain estimates of forest fire susceptibility for different forest management strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"499 ","pages":"Article 110942"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142659297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A general DDE framework to describe insect populations: Why delays are so important?","authors":"Luca Rossini ,&nbsp;Nicolás Bono Rosselló ,&nbsp;Ouassim Benhamouche ,&nbsp;Mario Contarini ,&nbsp;Stefano Speranza ,&nbsp;Emanuele Garone","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110937","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110937","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Physiologically-based models are a valuable tool to describe the biology of terrestrial arthropods, as it is the case of insects. These models represent the division of the life cycle in various discrete stages and provide explicit connections with the external environment, making them good candidates for decision support system tools. However, despite the current literature offering good theoretical frameworks, most of them lack of a description of the minimum time required by the organisms to develop to the next life stage. This problem leads to an overestimation of the population and to a compression of the peaks of the generations, hindering their application in real scenarios. In this study we provide a new general model based on Delay Differential Equations (DDE) that overcomes the problem of the minimum development time by introducing time-dependent delays. Those delays generally depend not only on the biology of the species, but on time and on the environmental conditions. This theoretical extension has new implications from the parameter estimation point of view, which are discussed with the support of a case study of agronomic relevance: the brown marmorated stink bug <em>Halyomorpha halys</em>. Besides supporting the description of the model, the case of <em>H. halys</em> was also considered to validate the model using datasets from two geographical locations, for an overall of 5 fields. Simulations showed that the DDE model describes the experimental data better than its previous version based on ordinary differential equations. The model represents an overall step forward in theory development and can be of great support to describe multivoltine species.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"499 ","pages":"Article 110937"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142659537","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Advantages and disadvantages of using social information for carcass detection–A case study using white-backed vultures","authors":"Te. Curk ,&nbsp;W. Rast ,&nbsp;R. Portas ,&nbsp;J. Kohles ,&nbsp;G. Shatumbu ,&nbsp;C. Cloete ,&nbsp;Ti. Curk ,&nbsp;V. Radchuk ,&nbsp;O. Aschenborn ,&nbsp;J. Melzheimer","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110941","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110941","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Utilizing social information during foraging, wherein individuals observe how others interact with their environment rather than relying solely on individually acquired information, is a widely used strategy across the animal kingdom. Nevertheless, our understanding of how different environments shape the extent of social information use remains limited. Here, we assessed the advantages and disadvantages of contrasting foraging strategies in different environments in terms of vulture and carcass density, at the individual, population and ecosystem level. We built an agent-based model to simulate three foraging strategies of African white-backed vultures in Namibia: nonsocial, local enhancement, and chains of vultures. This model incorporated field-derived parameters including vulture and carcass density, and flight characteristics of foraging vultures. From the model outputs, we calculated searching efficiency, competition for resources, and scavenging efficiency and compared the results with observed field data. The results highlight social foraging strategies as overall more advantageous than the nonsocial strategy. The chains of vultures strategy outperformed local enhancement only in terms of searching efficiency under high vulture densities. Furthermore, our findings suggest that vultures in our study area likely adopt diverse foraging strategies influenced by variations in vulture and carcass density. The model developed in this study is potentially applicable beyond the specific study site, rendering it a versatile tool for investigating diverse species and environments. Exploring the role of social foraging holds significant implications for the long-term sustainability of populations and ecosystem processes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"499 ","pages":"Article 110941"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142659296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How can oak regeneration in the Leipzig Floodplain Forest be effectively supported by femel plantations? Application of a demographic forest model","authors":"Jack Boyce ,&nbsp;Lucian Elles ,&nbsp;Stefanie Henkel ,&nbsp;Hans D. Kasperidus ,&nbsp;Andreas Padberg ,&nbsp;Mathias Scholz ,&nbsp;Markus E. Schorn ,&nbsp;Andreas Sickert ,&nbsp;Michael Vieweg ,&nbsp;Nadja Rüger","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110920","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110920","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Like many temperate floodplain forests in Europe, the Leipzig Floodplain Forest (LFF) has been impacted by anthropogenic disturbances, such as historical forestry practices and hydrological alterations. As a result, the forest's tree composition has changed, as evidenced by the declining abundance of typical floodplain species—like pedunculate oak <em>(Quercus robur)</em>—which play an important role in maintaining biodiversity. Notably, oak is not naturally regenerating in the mature forest, situating a need for management intervention to assist oak regeneration. One such management intervention is to plant oak in femels, i.e. small-scale clearings, or canopy gaps. However, it remains unclear whether small femels (&lt;0.5 ha) can ensure effective oak regeneration. Moreover, city foresters aim at reaching 40 % average oak cover in the forest overstory by planting oaks in femels, but uncertainty remains regarding how much of the area would have to be planted with oaks per year to reach this goal.</div><div>To explore these questions, we collected forest inventory data from oak femels ranging from 0.1 to 0.6 ha in size and compared oak density, size, growth, and mortality across femel sizes. Furthermore, we used the demographic Perfect Plasticity Approximation (PPA) model to simulate oak overstory cover over time under a femel management regime to assess the percentage of the forest area that should be planted with oaks per year accounting for different groundwater conditions. To parameterise the model, we used forest inventory data to quantify growth rates of oaks in the femels and growth, mortality, and recruitment rates of all common tree species in the Leipzig Floodplain Forest that may regenerate under the oak canopy over time.</div><div>Oak density, size, growth, and mortality were similar across femel sizes, indicating that smaller femels are as effective as larger ones in promoting oak regeneration, while minimising the impact on the forest structure. To reach the foresters’ goal of 40 % average oak overstory cover, it is recommended that approximately 0.3 % of the hardwood floodplain forest area is planted with oaks each year, independent of the groundwater conditions. This study illustrates how ecological modeling can assist conservation planning in the context of forest management decision-making and these results may also be relevant for other European floodplain forests where oak regeneration requires support through active management to conserve long-standing biodiversity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"499 ","pages":"Article 110920"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142659300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Community recomposition caused by species extinction in the colonization-competition trade-off model for vegetation","authors":"Dorian Nothaaß ,&nbsp;Andreas Huth","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110906","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110906","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Species extinction and the resulting impact on the community composition is a pervasive threat to vegetation ecosystems today. Understanding how the extinction of one or more species affects and threatens biodiversity is challenging. Here, we study the scenario of a sudden species extinction in the colonization-competition trade-off model by assuming that a disturbance eliminates a species on a fleeting time scale. The system then returns to equilibrium, but the equilibrial abundances have changed for all inferior competitors. We use numerical and analytical calculations to show that the sudden extinction of one species results in a large increase in abundance of the next inferior competitor and subsequent additional extinction of the next-but-one inferior species. We present the changes in community composition and diversity using rank abundance distributions and the Shannon index, respectively. In addition to theoretical parameterizations, we use data for grasslands, which are exponentially distributed, where additional species extinctions occur.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"499 ","pages":"Article 110906"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142659316","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"SIMANFOR cloud Decision Support System: Structure, content, and applications","authors":"F. Bravo,&nbsp;C. Ordóñez,&nbsp;A. Vázquez-Veloso,&nbsp;S. Michalakopoulos","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110912","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110912","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Technological progress in the last decades has driven great advances in many fields of knowledge. A wide range of tools and services are now available and constantly evolving to handle vast amounts of available data as well as the increased complexity of real-world case studies and analytical alternatives. Most sectors have embraced new methodologies to provide solutions to their problems, and the forestry sector is no exception. Important steps have been taken to update the forestry sector and introduce new large-scale experimental designs, digital tools and more extensive forestry databases. However, assimilation of this progress by forest managers remains largely pending. The more specialized technical knowledge and computing skills required to use this new generation of tools constitutes a known barrier to uptake. In this work, we present the SIMANFOR cloud-based Decision Support System service for simulating forest management alternatives. Its evolution, internal structure and potential applications are described. A case study was developed to demonstrate simulator performance under diverse management scenarios and highlight the benefits of this tool for forest managers. SIMANFOR cloud services are free and can be accessed at <span><span>www.simanfor.es</span><svg><path></path></svg></span>.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"499 ","pages":"Article 110912"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142659315","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Individual variation affects outbreak magnitude and predictability in multi-pathogen model of pigeons visiting dairy farms","authors":"Teddy Lazebnik ,&nbsp;Orr Spiegel","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110925","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110925","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Zoonotic disease transmission between animals and humans is a growing risk, and the agricultural context acts as a likely point of transition, with an important role of individual heterogeneity. Livestock often occurs at high local densities, facilitating spread within sites (<em>e.g.</em> among cows in a dairy farm), while wildlife is often more mobile, potentially connecting spatially isolated sites. Thus, understanding the dynamics of disease spread in the wildlife-livestock interface is crucial for mitigating these risks of transmission. Specifically, the interactions between pigeons (<em>Columba livia</em>, also known as ‘rock doves’) and in-door cows at dairy farms can lead to significant disease transmission and economic losses for farmers; putting livestock, adjacent human populations, and other wildlife species at risk. In this paper, we propose a novel spatio-temporal multi-pathogen model with continuous spatial movement. The model expands on the SEIRD framework and accounts for both within-species and cross-species transmission of pathogens, as well as the exploration–exploitation movement dynamics of pigeons, which play a critical role in the spread of infectious agents. In addition to model formulation, we also implement it as an agent-based simulation approach and use empirical field data to investigate different biologically realistic scenarios, evaluating the effect of various parameters on the epidemic spread. Namely, in agreement with theoretical expectations, the model predicts that the heterogeneity of the movement dynamics of pigeons (on top and beyond the obvious effect of an increase of mean level movement itself) can drastically affect both the magnitude and stability of outbreaks. In addition, joint infection by multiple pathogens can have an interactive effect, reflecting a non-intuitive inhibition of the outbreak compared to predictions from single-pathogen SIR models. Our findings highlight the impact of heterogeneity in host behavior on their pathogens and allow realistic predictions of outbreak dynamics in the multi-pathogen wildlife-livestock interface with consequences to zoonotic diseases in various systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"499 ","pages":"Article 110925"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142659314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Erratum: One-dimensional oxygen diffusion into soil with exponential respiration: analytical and numerical solutions. F. J. Cook, Ecological Modelling 78: 277–283.","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110918","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110918","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"499 ","pages":"Article 110918"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142659299","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cracking the code: Linking good modeling and coding practices for new ecological modelers","authors":"Todd M. Swannack ,&nbsp;Kiara C. Cushway ,&nbsp;Carra C. Carrillo ,&nbsp;Clementina Calvo ,&nbsp;Kierra R. Determan ,&nbsp;Caroline M. Mierzejewski ,&nbsp;Vanessa M. Quintana ,&nbsp;Christopher L. Riggins ,&nbsp;Miranda D. Sams ,&nbsp;Waverly E. Wadsworth","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110926","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110926","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Good modeling practices are essential for producing reliable and reproducible ecological models. Inherent to good modeling practices are fundamental coding and documentation skills, which not only implement the desired modeling capabilities but also clearly outline the goals, methods, and components of a model that are necessary to reproduce the desired results. One of the largest challenges for new ecological modelers can be implementing a model into computer code. In fact, coding represents a significant barrier for entry into ecological modeling, since most ecologists have not had formal training in computer science or software development. While software packages do exist that facilitate model development, we have observed that newer modelers still struggle with developing good coding practice throughout the modeling process. During a series of agent-based modeling short-courses and full semester graduate courses, both taught in NetLogo, we identified some common challenges encountered by graduate students and environmental professionals as they learn to code an ecological model, many for the first time. We were able to categorize and provide examples of the main challenges and obstacles, which fell into three main groups that follow the steps of good modeling practice: problem scoping and conceptualization, formulation, and evaluation. We then provide guidance on how to overcome these obstacles while developing good coding and modeling practices that will result in more scientifically defensible models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"499 ","pages":"Article 110926"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142659301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}