Ecological Modelling最新文献

{"title":"A multi-scale approach for integrating species distribution models with landscape connectivity to identify critical linkage zones for African savanna elephants (Loxodonta africana)","authors":"Lei Song ,&nbsp;Amy E. Frazier ,&nbsp;Anna Bond Estes ,&nbsp;Lyndon Despard Estes","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111198","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111198","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The populations of African savanna elephants have declined by an estimated 60 % since the 1970s, which can be attributed to a mixture of poaching and habitat loss. Human activities and environmental changes have caused unprecedented loss and fragmentation of elephant natural habitats, resulting in the isolation of elephant populations. Preserving habitat connectivity is thus increasingly important to conserve remaining elephants' populations and maintain ecological functions. A major challenge in large-scale connectivity modeling is data availability constraints. To tackle this issue, we developed an integrated modeling approach that leverages multiple, publicly available occurrence datasets, which vary in format and quality, with a multi-scale SDM to estimate spatial suitability of African savanna elephants. Two SDMs, based on polygon-based observations and presence-only occurrences, were separately calibrated using the Isolation Forest algorithm and then ensembled using Bayes fusion. Particularly, we included multiple landscape metrics derived from a high-resolution (∼5 m) land cover map as environmental predictors in the SDMs to characterize the landscape structure influencing elephant movement. The resulting environmental suitability was then used to map landscape connectivity through circuit theory, implemented in Circuitscape. Using species distribution modeling (SDM) and graph-based landscape connectivity modeling, we aimed to understand population connectivity and target vital corridors across Tanzania, one of the most important elephant range states. Shapley value-based variable analysis in SDM revealed that human modifications strongly influence elephant distribution at broad scales, while habitat fragmentation and connectivity impact their activities. Connectivity results further highlighted that both long- and short-distance connectivity are currently facing significant threats from intensive human activities (e.g., agriculture) in Tanzania and identified critical linkage zones that should be targeted for connectivity conservation efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"507 ","pages":"Article 111198"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144138343","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A cellular necrosis process model for estimating conifer crown scorch","authors":"Kate J. Fuller ,&nbsp;Leda N. Kobziar ,&nbsp;Rodman R. Linn ,&nbsp;Sharon M. Hood","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111192","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111192","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Fire-caused tree mortality has major impacts on forest ecosystems. One primary cause of post-fire tree mortality in non-resprouting species is crown scorch, the percentage of foliage in a crown that is killed by heat. Despite its importance, the heat required to kill foliage is not well-understood. We used the “lag” model to describe time- and temperature-dependent leaf cell necrosis as a method of predicting leaf scorch. The lag model includes two rate parameters that describe 1) the process of cells accumulating non-lethal damage, and 2) damage becoming lethal to the cell. To parameterize models, we used a water bath to apply heat to newly expanded and one-year-old spring and autumn needles of <em>Pinus ponderosa</em> (ponderosa pine) and <em>Pseudotsuga menziesii</em> (Douglas-fir) at five temperatures (45, 50, 55, 60, and 65 °C), for 2 s to 2 h and 50 min. Electrolyte leakage measurements were used as indicators of percent cell survival. We fit the lag model to resulting survival curves and developed models of leaf scorch that can be applied across a range of temperatures and under fluctuating temperatures. Newly expanded foliage in spring was the most heat sensitive for both species examined. <em>P. menziesii</em> foliage sampled in spring was significantly more heat sensitive than foliage sampled in autumn, regardless of needle age. These findings indicate the importance of species, season, and age of foliage for crown scorch estimation. The models and methodologies developed in this study are directly applicable to fire effects models to improve precision of crown scorch estimates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"507 ","pages":"Article 111192"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144124658","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reddening in action: Exploring color changes in food web dynamics","authors":"Milko Vesterinen,&nbsp;Tommi Perälä,&nbsp;Anna Kuparinen","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111188","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111188","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent decades, the role of environmental variation in population dynamics has gained attention. This study investigates how differently colored environmental noise affects species dynamics in food webs generated using the Niche model. We explore aquatic ecosystems with and without fish age-structure and examine the correlation between the color index and trophic position. Using an allometric trophic network approach, we analyze biomass time-series data. Our results show that reddening with increasing trophic position occurs in all food webs except those with age-structured fish, which show different patterns. We also find that autocorrelation increases from the bottom to the top of the food webs. This study provides insights into how environmental noise and fish age-structure influence species dynamics in aquatic ecosystems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"507 ","pages":"Article 111188"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144124199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Connecting the dots: Assessing landscape connectivity algorithms for biodiversity conservation","authors":"Peter Schippers ,&nbsp;Rogier Pouwels ,&nbsp;Jana Verboom","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111185","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111185","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Biodiversity is currently facing threats from both climate change and habitat fragmentation. With climate zones (conditions) shifting pole-wards, the ability of populations to track these changes in fragmented landscapes are crucial for biodiversity conservation, while the ability of scientists to assess these dynamics is crucial for conservation planning. To simulate the movement of organisms in a fragmented landscape, scientists often use connectivity matrices - tables that contain the probabilities of successful dispersal between different pairs of habitat patches.</div><div>While mechanistic, individual-based correlated random walk (CRW) models are commonly used to estimate these probabilities, simpler alternatives exist based on interpatch distance and patch size which are easier to develop, use and understand. Depending on their scientific credibility, these simpler alternatives could be more practical to use in decision making processes.</div><div>In this context, our objective is to validate simpler models as viable alternatives for complex models and to understand their limitations. Specifically, how good are simple algorithms in mimicking the CRW model? To address this question, we compared the connectivity matrices of ten simple algorithms to those of a CRW model across 36 contrasting landscape-disperser combinations. We used the coefficient of determination (R²) and Akaike information criterion (AIC) to rank the algorithms.</div><div>Our results show that the frequently used exponential algorithm (EXP), in which the connectivity decays exponentially with the interpatch distance, did not perform well, with a mean R² of 0.745 and a minimum R² of 0.185 between the connectivities of the EXP model and the CRW model. On the other hand, the CRD-lim model - which uses a constant•radius/distance relation within a maximum interpatch dispersal distance (d_max) - performed best, with a mean R² of 0.918 and a minimum R² of 0.809.</div><div>Furthermore, the CRD-lim algorithm emerged as a robust alternative to random walk or the exponential decay models when evaluating connectivity matrices for specific landscapes and species. Notably, this approach spans a wide range of spatial scales, offering a combination of simplicity and power that makes it suitable for conservation planning in the face of climate change and habitat fragmentation across a range of species.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"507 ","pages":"Article 111185"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144124198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Optimizing forest management in the face of bark beetle risk","authors":"Joyce M.N. Romeiro ,&nbsp;Victor F. Strîmbu ,&nbsp;Tron Eid ,&nbsp;Annika Kangas","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111160","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111160","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rising impact of the spruce bark beetle (<em>Ips typographus</em> L.) on Europe's forests is becoming a major concern, with climate change intensifying the problem. This situation has sparked discussion across Europe about adopting new, adaptive forest management strategies to mitigate the economic impacts on the forestry sector. Despite this, some regions have yet to fully embrace long-term strategies against bark beetle outbreaks from a climate change perspective. In our study, we examined the effects of integrating bark beetle risk into forest management strategies, considering both current and future climate change scenarios. Our findings indicate that reducing rotation length of low density stands with a high proportion of Norway Spruce situated in more productive sites yields substantial economic advantages. Particularly, regions with a history of bark beetle outbreaks, like Vestfold in Norway, stand to gain significantly from early harvesting. The economic gain from harvesting earlier in this region is projected to increase nearly tenfold over the next 50 years under climate change scenarios. Additionally, we recommend considering the use of mixed tree species within forests as another adaptation strategy, to enhance forest resilience against bark beetle infestations and other natural disturbances.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"507 ","pages":"Article 111160"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144106765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Foraging of wading birds on a patchy landscape: Simulating effects of social information, interference competition, and patch selection on prey intake and individual distribution","authors":"Hyo Won Lee ,&nbsp;Donald L. DeAngelis ,&nbsp;Simeon Yurek ,&nbsp;Yannis P. Papastamatiou","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111178","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111178","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Foragers on patchy landscapes must acquire sufficient resources despite uncertainty in the location and amount of the resources. Optimal Foraging Theory posits that foragers deal with this uncertainty by using strategies that optimize resource intake within foraging periods. For species such as wading birds, this optimization is closely linked to their survival and reproductive success. Understanding the influence of patch selection on individual resource intake and foraging distribution is therefore crucial. In this study, we simulated how resource distribution, interference competition, and social cues—such as aggregation behaviors—influence resource intake and foraging spatial distribution. We employed an individual-based model simulating wading bird foraging behaviors, with 900 individuals simultaneously foraging across a landscape with unknown resource distribution. Birds employed one of three patch-finding strategies: random, cue-searching, or hybrid, which uses both searching strategies. Each bird decided whether to remain in a patch based on a prey density threshold. We compared the daily resource intake and foraging distribution of birds across different modeled patch-finding strategies, resource distribution patterns, and the presence or absence of interference competition. Wading birds exhibiting aggregation behavior displayed increased intake rates when resources were concentrated and interference minimal. Aggregation behavior led to a closer match with the ideal free distribution when the prey density threshold was optimal. These findings provide theoretical support that aggregation behavior is effective in scenarios where resources are concentrated in a few patches, social cues are used by relatively few individuals, and interference competition is limited.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"507 ","pages":"Article 111178"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144099771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Application of a modified aggregated dead zone model to estimate radionuclide transport in running surface water bodies","authors":"Vladimir Sizonenko,&nbsp;Igor Sinitsyn","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111187","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111187","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study was conducted to determine applicability of the aggregated dead zone model to describe radionuclide transport in running surface water bodies. The model assumes that the hydraulic system is divided into separate sections, and the dissolved substance is transported through each section by piston flow (i.e., transport without dispersion) and then enters the instantaneous and complete mixing box (i.e., dispersion without transport). This results in a box model with an aggregated dead zone and a delay —the transport time. Instead of modeling the dissolved solute concentration continuously in both distance and time along the watercourse, the model uses a “black box” approach and considers the concentration at the box outlet (in the aggregate dead zone) as a function of the concentration at the box inlet and time. The use of the box model significantly reduces the requirements for the necessary initial and boundary data compared to 1-, 2- and 3-dimensional models. The modification of the model accounts for non steady-state flow, radioactive decay and interaction of the radionuclide with suspended sediments and bottom deposits. The mathematical apparatus of the modified model is a system of ordinary differential equations with a delayed argument. The paper compares the modeled values of radionuclide concentrations with the measured data on case of ³H distribution as a result of releases from 5 nuclear power plants in the Loire River channel for six months with hourly discretization and for distribution of ⁹⁰Sr releases in the Kyiv reservoir that occurred as a result of the Chornobyl disaster for a year with daily discretization. The close match between the model and the measured data the short computer implementation time demonstrate the possibility of parametric identification and adaptation of the model to different types of radionuclides in different running water bodies and highlight the model’s potential for environmental modeling applications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"507 ","pages":"Article 111187"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144099772","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessment of the sustainable development status of districts and counties in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration","authors":"Rui Huang ,&nbsp;Qing Huang ,&nbsp;Prajal Pradhan ,&nbsp;Yixuan Wang ,&nbsp;Klaus Hubacek","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111191","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111191","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Assessing the sustainable development status at the subnational level is essential for accelerating the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) during the second half of the 2030 Agenda. However, there are significant gaps in SDG assessment at the county scale and in comparative studies between different counties. In this study, the sustainable development status of counties at the administrative scale in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration (YRDUA) was evaluated on the basis of localized SDG data. Our results revealed that from 2015 to 2021, the sustainable development status of districts and counties in the YRDUA gradually increased. Nevertheless, the distribution of the development status was uneven across these districts and counties. The sustainable development status of districts and counties in the eastern coastal region was greater than that in the western region. These differences were mainly due to a combination of interregional and intraregional variations. Compared with those in county-level cities and municipal districts, there were greater synergies among indicators in ordinary counties. This finding is related to the relatively balanced distribution of resources, relatively harmonized policy implementation and more consistent socioeconomic development needs in ordinary counties. However, the trade-offs among indicators in county-level cities were relatively noticable, suggesting a need for comprehensive and systematic assessments when formulating policies. The governments of county-level cities should optimize resource allocation, enhance environmental regulation, and promote multi-goal coordination. Our scenario simulation results revealed that promoting sustainable development in ordinary counties, especially those in Anhui Province, could facilitate balanced achievement of the SDGs in the YRDUA. Therefore, support should focus more notably on ordinary counties in Anhui Province by increasing infrastructure construction, such as transportation, energy, and communications, and promoting the equalization of public service resources to effectively enhance their sustainable development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"507 ","pages":"Article 111191"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144099770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fluctuations in real population sizes: Mathematical modeling and estimation of demographic parameters","authors":"Oksana Revutskaya ,&nbsp;Galina Neverova ,&nbsp;Efim Frisman","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111175","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111175","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study proposes an approach for estimating the demographic parameters of stage structure of real populations on the basis of their total population size, providing a useful tool for managing species abundance dynamics. To estimate the parameters, we use a transformation from discrete-time two-component models of structured populations to delay-difference equations that depend on the total population size. The two-component model assumes that at the beginning of each breeding season, the population comprises two cohorts: a younger group of juveniles and an older group of mature individuals. Population growth is regulated either by constraining fertility or by limiting the juvenile survival. The proposed approach was tested using available data on the population dynamics of fur-bearing animals in the Jewish Autonomous Region of the Russian Far East. The analyzed species include the squirrel, mountain hare, Manchurian hare, raccoon dog, and Siberian weasel. Their offspring reach reproductive maturity by the next breeding season. The estimates obtained via the proposed approach generally fall within biologically meaningful parameter ranges and reflect population dynamics similar to those observed in nature. In summary, this approach enables the analysis and modeling of population stage structure, as well as the estimation of demographic coefficients using the total size data of the population.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"507 ","pages":"Article 111175"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144106764","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling rodent population and pathogen dynamics in agricultural environments: Assessing the impact of control strategies on disease transmission","authors":"Marina Voinson ,&nbsp;Bram Vanden Broecke ,&nbsp;Herwig Leirs ,&nbsp;Vincent Sluydts","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111168","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111168","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rodents pose a major challenge to livestock farms by causing structural damage and serving as reservoirs and carriers of pathogens that threaten both animal and human health. With increasing restrictions on rodenticide use, there is a critical need to understand how alternative rodent management strategies influence the dynamics of rodent-borne diseases. In this study, we develop a novel model that integrates rodent population dynamics within agricultural environments (e.g., pig and poultry farms) with pathogen transmission characterized by different life histories (e.g., long-lasting vs. short-lived immunity, direct vs. indirect transmission). Our model is informed by experimental data to realistically capture rodent and pathogen dynamics and to evaluate the relative effectiveness of different management interventions. Specifically, we assess the impacts of sanitation, culling, and fertility control strategies on both rodent populations and pathogen prevalence. Our framework integrates diverse pathogen life histories and explicitly links management interventions to their effects on both disease dynamics and rodent populations within a specific agricultural context. Our results show no substantial differences between direct and environmentally transmitted pathogens. However, farm sanitation was the most effective strategy when the pathogen elicited long-lasting immunity, while culling was effective when immunity was short-lived. Overall, our findings underscore the importance of considering both pathogen life history and host population dynamics when designing sustainable and effective rodent management strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"507 ","pages":"Article 111168"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144088944","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}