Ecological Modelling最新文献

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From farm to food systems: developing aquaculture models to explore their role in food systems 从农场到粮食系统:发展水产养殖模式以探索其在粮食系统中的作用
IF 3.2 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111504
A.J. van Riel , M.A.J. Nederlof , O. van Hal , G.F. Wiegertjes , I.J.M. de Boer , K. Chary
{"title":"From farm to food systems: developing aquaculture models to explore their role in food systems","authors":"A.J. van Riel ,&nbsp;M.A.J. Nederlof ,&nbsp;O. van Hal ,&nbsp;G.F. Wiegertjes ,&nbsp;I.J.M. de Boer ,&nbsp;K. Chary","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111504","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111504","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As a vital food source worldwide, aquaculture is set to play an essential role in future food systems. To explore potential configurations for feeding a growing population within planetary limits, agro-ecological food system and resource allocation models can offer valuable insights. So far, the potential of aquaculture in such modelling studies have focused on a few species. Understanding the large diversity of aquaculture species and farming practices, however, is key to determine their contribution to future food systems. With limited empirical data on aquaculture production systems across different environmental conditions and intensities, bioenergetic models could be used to predict growth, serving as an input for food system modelling. In this study, we first selected Atlantic salmon, European seabass, and common carp to represent the variety of finfish aquaculture in Europe. We characterised key production systems for these species using contrasting yet realistic management practices and created coastal water temperature clusters for Europe. For each aquaculture system, we first simulated life-cycle growth performance using a dynamic energy budget (DEB) model, and then predicted nutrient requirements and feed intake using feed compound data. The temperature clusters we defined were found to overlap with existing Atlantic salmon and European seabass aquaculture locations. When compared to empirical farm data, the DEB model accurately predicted harvest times for the various systems and species. Incorporating these aquaculture systems in food system or resource allocation models can enhance our understanding of aquaculture’s role in future food systems in Europe.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"515 ","pages":"Article 111504"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146191615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Guerrilla clonal growth strategy leads to amorphous pattern formation in a drylands vegetation model 游击克隆生长策略导致干旱地植被模式无定形的形成
IF 3.2 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111510
Andrea Davin , Jost von Hardenberg , Paul M.J. Berghuis , Ángeles G. Mayor , Enrico Magazzino , Max Rietkerk , Frits Veerman , Mara Baudena
{"title":"Guerrilla clonal growth strategy leads to amorphous pattern formation in a drylands vegetation model","authors":"Andrea Davin ,&nbsp;Jost von Hardenberg ,&nbsp;Paul M.J. Berghuis ,&nbsp;Ángeles G. Mayor ,&nbsp;Enrico Magazzino ,&nbsp;Max Rietkerk ,&nbsp;Frits Veerman ,&nbsp;Mara Baudena","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111510","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111510","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Resource concentration in the vicinity of plants is observed in drylands as a result of various mechanisms, developed to cope with water scarcity. This often leads to self-organized spatial patterns that enhance drylands’ ecosystem resilience to environmental changes. Numerous vegetation dynamics models have been developed over the past few decades to study this pattern formation. Generally, they represent plant spatial spread as a diffusive process, which captures well species that reproduce via seed dispersal or through clonal growth following the “phalanx” strategy, characterized by slow, compact expansion. However, many dryland species exhibit “guerrilla” clonal growth, characterized by rapid, directional exploration of favourable areas, which is poorly captured by diffusion. To address this limitation, we introduce a novel term for lateral biomass expansion into a classical dryland model.</div><div>We found conditions suitable for periodic patterns to emerge with a Turing analysis, aiming to test the stability of a uniform solution against uniform and periodic perturbations. However, numerically, these patterns could not be observed by perturbing the homogeneous equilibria with small perturbations, possibly because of the non-linearity of the guerrilla expansion term. Instead, remarkably, the model produced amorphous, far-from-equilibrium patterns when integrated along a rainfall precipitation gradient.</div><div>These findings highlight the need to represent the diversity of clonal plant strategies in dryland ecosystem models, as they play an important role in pattern formation and, thus, may influence ecosystem resilience and responses to global environmental change. Furthermore, our results highlight the need to move beyond linear analyses when studying systems with nonlinear dispersal dynamics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"515 ","pages":"Article 111510"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146098581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Navigating lake modelling and calibration: insights from literature and community practice 导航湖泊建模和校准:从文献和社区实践的见解
IF 3.2 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111529
Shajar Regev , Jorrit P. Mesman , Ma. Cristina Paule‑Mercado , Martin Schmid , Maud Siebers
{"title":"Navigating lake modelling and calibration: insights from literature and community practice","authors":"Shajar Regev ,&nbsp;Jorrit P. Mesman ,&nbsp;Ma. Cristina Paule‑Mercado ,&nbsp;Martin Schmid ,&nbsp;Maud Siebers","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111529","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111529","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Calibrating process-based lake models can be challenging, especially for newcomers. Existing literature is extensive but often assumes substantial statistical expertise and is scattered across models and disciplines, making it less accessible to new practitioners. This paper provides an overview of the modelling workflow with emphasis on calibration, which is the most resource-intensive task. Rather than offering a one-size-fits-all recipe, we present approaches that help cope with common challenges, including limited direct measurements, conflicting objectives, and risks of overfitting. Drawing on literature, survey responses, and our own experience, we chart five preparatory steps: clarifying model aims, assessing data suitability, configuring the model, preparing for calibration, and performing sensitivity analysis. We discuss manual versus automatic calibration, emphasising the value of mixed, iterative stepwise strategies that incorporate prior knowledge to constrain parameters to realistic values. Validation is considered as an assessment of whether the model adequately serves its intended purpose. By outlining these steps and considerations, we aim to reduce effort, improve results, and advance lake model development and application.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"515 ","pages":"Article 111529"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146191923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dynamic evolution of sex ratio in lampreys: Investigating population and ecosystem stability based on a game-theoretic framework 七鳃鳗性别比例的动态演化:基于博弈论框架的种群与生态系统稳定性研究
IF 3.2 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111526
Zhenfen Dong , Tongtong Jiang , Tengteng Xu , Wenwen Ji , Jing Song , Yihan Gao , Yitian Zhang , Xujia Xuan , Zhifu Jia , Changhe Fu
{"title":"Dynamic evolution of sex ratio in lampreys: Investigating population and ecosystem stability based on a game-theoretic framework","authors":"Zhenfen Dong ,&nbsp;Tongtong Jiang ,&nbsp;Tengteng Xu ,&nbsp;Wenwen Ji ,&nbsp;Jing Song ,&nbsp;Yihan Gao ,&nbsp;Yitian Zhang ,&nbsp;Xujia Xuan ,&nbsp;Zhifu Jia ,&nbsp;Changhe Fu","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111526","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111526","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The environmental plasticity of sex evolution in lampreys is a pivotal regulatory factor for their population stability, yet existing research lacks cross-scale quantitative analysis.This study constructs a three-tier progressive framework consisting of microscopic individual growth, intra-population game dynamics, and interspecific ecological interactions.Based on a modified Lotka-Volterra population game model, we systematically investigate the dynamic evolution of sex ratios in lampreys and its ecological effects.First, quadratic polynomial fitting is employed to quantify growth trajectories and establish an endogenous sex transition function governed by growth rate. Second, the Lotka-Volterra model is refined by incorporating male-female competitive game dynamics to analyze the equilibrium of sex ratios under resource constraints. Finally, modules of sockeye salmon and parasites are integrated to construct a multi-trophic level model, using standardized regression coefficients (SRC) and payoff functions to analyze sensitive parameters and ecosystem stability. Experimental results indicate that under harsh environmental conditions, sex transition can increase the intrinsic growth rate of lampreys by 114%, effectively preventing population collapse. With moderate resource availability, the male-to-female ratio ranges from 0.6 to 0.7 (female dominance); under abundant resources, intra-population competition remains mild, the proportion of females increases, and the payoff is maximized; whereas under resource scarcity, male dominance becomes pronounced, leading to the poorest population performance and lowest payoff. The introduction of sockeye salmon enhances female transition rates by approximately 10% through nutritional supply, increasing the total lamprey population by 20% In contrast, the inclusion of parasites intensifies population competition among lampreys, increases the proportion of males, and reduces the total population by 15.2%. SRC analysis reveals that the resource environment carrying capacity (<em>K<sub>R</sub></em>) is the core parameter affecting the sex ratio. A system stability index of 0.004314, a Shannon-Wiener diversity index of 1.523, and a resilience index of 0.966 jointly verify the synergy between population stability and ecosystem stability. Furthermore, simulation experiments indicate that moderate anthropogenic harvesting of lampreys in this area can maintain the balance between populations and the ecosystem, exerting a positive impact on the fishery industry.This model establishes a quantitative linkage between the micro-level sex-allocation strategies of a population with variable sex ratios and macro-level ecological stability, providing a theoretical foundation for sustainable ecological management practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"515 ","pages":"Article 111526"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146191926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Beyond expert opinion: A scalable, data-driven model for habitat quality assessment 超越专家意见:一个可扩展的、数据驱动的栖息地质量评估模型
IF 3.2 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111523
Seong-Hyeon Kim , Youngjae Yoo , Yuyoung Choi
{"title":"Beyond expert opinion: A scalable, data-driven model for habitat quality assessment","authors":"Seong-Hyeon Kim ,&nbsp;Youngjae Yoo ,&nbsp;Yuyoung Choi","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111523","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111523","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Habitat quality (HQ) modelling plays a critical role in biodiversity conservation and ecosystem service planning. However, widely used HQ models, such as Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST), rely on expert-derived coefficients for land-cover suitability, threat sensitivity, and spatial decay parameters, introducing subjectivity and limiting reproducibility. Here, we present a data-driven approach to parameterize the InVEST HQ model by integrating ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) with land-cover and anthropogenic threat datasets across South Korea. Using occurrence records of 29 mammal and 336 vascular plant species, we derived land-cover–specific habitat values, threat weights, maximum influence distances, and decay functions via regression and spatial analyses. The resulting HQ maps were validated against endangered species occurrence (<em>Naemorhedus caudatus, Martes flavigula, Prionailurus bengalensis</em>) and vegetation conservation grades, showing improved ecological relevance compared to conventional expert-based HQ maps. This approach enhances objectivity, replicability, and taxon-specific differentiation in HQ modelling, offering a scalable method that can be generalized to other regions with species occurrence data. By bridging SDMs and HQ modelling, this framework advances transparent and data-driven conservation planning, providing a methodological contribution to environmental modelling and decision-support tools.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"515 ","pages":"Article 111523"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146191924","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A writing workflow for communicating mechanistic models 用于交流机制模型的编写工作流
IF 3.2 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111525
Anna Linhoss
{"title":"A writing workflow for communicating mechanistic models","authors":"Anna Linhoss","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111525","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111525","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mechanistic models are widely used in hydrodynamics, water quality, biogeochemistry, and ecological modeling because they represent systems as interacting processes rather than statistical relationships. Their scientific value depends on both model performance and clear communication of model structure, modeling decisions, and causal pathways. In practice, clear communication is difficult to achieve. Mechanistic models are developed through nonlinear, iterative workflows, while manuscripts impose a linear narrative structure. As a result, key modeling choices and mechanistic logic are often presented out of causal order or scattered across sections, making papers difficult to follow.</div><div>This paper identifies common structural reasons why mechanistic modeling papers are hard to write and read. These challenges include mixing model description with interpretation, managing layered process hierarchies, and deciding where calibration and results belong in a linear manuscript. In response, the paper introduces a practical writing workflow that helps authors organize mechanistic modeling manuscripts around causal logic rather than development chronology.</div><div>The workflow emphasizes early articulation of scientific purpose, explicit identification of dominant mechanisms, and figure ordering that reflects explanatory priority. An illustrative hydrodynamic modeling example shows how applying the workflow clarifies scope, improves narrative coherence, and strengthens mechanistic explanation. The workflow complements existing guidance on model documentation and reproducibility by addressing manuscript-level organization. It provides a repeatable, transferable approach for clearer and more interpretable mechanistic modeling papers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"515 ","pages":"Article 111525"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146192096","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Quantifying connectivity between functional fish habitats: A novel energy-based approach assessing multiple pathways 量化功能性鱼类栖息地之间的连通性:一种新的基于能量的方法来评估多种途径
IF 3.2 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111515
P. Holzapfel , D. Wildt , L. Schmalfuss , G. Pasternack , C. Hauer
{"title":"Quantifying connectivity between functional fish habitats: A novel energy-based approach assessing multiple pathways","authors":"P. Holzapfel ,&nbsp;D. Wildt ,&nbsp;L. Schmalfuss ,&nbsp;G. Pasternack ,&nbsp;C. Hauer","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111515","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111515","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Fluvial ecosystems exhibit spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability, forming dynamic mosaics of interconnected habitat patches essential for fish life cycles. Access to distinct functional habitat units is crucial for survival and development across different life stages. Despite its importance, habitat connectivity modeling, particularly at the microhabitat scale, has rarely been applied in riverine research. To address this gap, we introduce <em>Pathways</em>, a Python-based algorithm that maps potential movement paths between patches within 2D depth-averaged hydrodynamic flow fields. Habitat Suitability Modeling is used to identify habitats of interest, while pathway feasibility is assessed by intersecting flow fields with fatigue curves that account for swimming performance. In this approach the energetic cost of each path is quantified as the time-integrated swimming power required to traverse the fluid velocity field. Habitat connectivity is assessed using the Habitat Connectivity Index (<em>HCI</em>), calculated by dividing the Weighted Usable Area of each accessible target patch by the median path energy cost of all modeled paths from a starting patch. This approach was tested on a riffle–pool reach of the Gail River, Austria, focusing on grayling larvae (<em>Thymallus thymallus</em>). Results revealed significant variations in habitat connectivity across spawning site locations and flow conditions. Mean <em>HCI</em> values ranged from 69.8 m²mJ⁻¹ under low-flow conditions to 3.4 m²mJ⁻¹ at mean high flow, highlighting the influence of discharge on habitat accessibility. This study provides a microhabitat-level quantification of grayling post-emergence habitat connectivity and introduces a novel framework for assessing fish dispersal and habitat accessibility.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"515 ","pages":"Article 111515"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146098582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Suitability analysis for urban oasis gardens: mapping potential sites in Biskra, Algeria 城市绿洲花园的适宜性分析:绘制阿尔及利亚比斯克拉的潜在地点
IF 3.2 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111514
Kenza Torai , Soumia Bouzaher , Silvio Caputo , Valentina Manente , Mohammed Khelili
{"title":"Suitability analysis for urban oasis gardens: mapping potential sites in Biskra, Algeria","authors":"Kenza Torai ,&nbsp;Soumia Bouzaher ,&nbsp;Silvio Caputo ,&nbsp;Valentina Manente ,&nbsp;Mohammed Khelili","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111514","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111514","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rapid urbanisation of Biskra, a Saharan city whose environmental balance historically depended on its oasis gardens, has accelerated agricultural land loss and driven a sustained decline in vegetation cover. These changes have intensified local heat exposure and weakened ecological and cultural systems that once shaped the city’s identity. Although green infrastructure is increasingly recognised for mitigating heat stress, limited research has examined how oasis-based landscapes can be translated into spatial tools for planning decisions in arid environments. Existing studies largely document environmental change without providing operational support for planning tools in Algeria, leaving a clear gap in guidance for prioritising green infrastructure interventions. In response, this study applies a GIS-based multi-criteria analysis to develop a spatial tool for planning support. The Analytic Hierarchy Process guides the weighting of fourteen temporally and spatially relevant indicators, including land surface temperature, population density, green space availability and land-use patterns, which are integrated to assess suitability for reintroducing oasis gardens within the city’s expanding urban fabric. The framework provides a practical baseline for current planning needs and can be updated as urban conditions evolve. The analysis indicates that approximately 41% of the study area offers moderate to high potential for oasis garden reintroduction. These zones align with areas showing elevated land surface temperatures and limited vegetation cover, indicating where interventions could most effectively improve local environmental conditions. The findings offer actionable support for planning decisions in Biskra while establishing a transferable spatial approach for other arid cities facing similar pressures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"515 ","pages":"Article 111514"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146098656","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A process-based model for multiple ecosystem services in the Venice lagoon under climate change and demographic forcings 气候变化和人口强迫下威尼斯泻湖多种生态系统服务的过程模型
IF 3.2 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111473
Stian Rampoldi , Silvia Rova , Fabio Pranovi , Alice Stocco , Daniele Brigolin
{"title":"A process-based model for multiple ecosystem services in the Venice lagoon under climate change and demographic forcings","authors":"Stian Rampoldi ,&nbsp;Silvia Rova ,&nbsp;Fabio Pranovi ,&nbsp;Alice Stocco ,&nbsp;Daniele Brigolin","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111473","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111473","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the dynamics and trade-offs of ecosystem services (ESs) represents a crucial step towards a more sustainable management of coastal lagoons. Nonetheless, within ESs modelling, process-based dynamic models had a confined development. This work presents a non-spatial process-based model that represents the dynamics of twelve ESs in the Venice lagoon, grounded in the social-ecological system framework. ESs emerge from the interactions among habitats, fauna, and actors, represented as state variables through a system of ordinary differential equations, forced by climatic and socio-demographic trends. A comprehensive set of data on habitats, fauna, and ESs was considered to parameterise the model, and a numerical simulation covering the years 2000–2080 was performed. Parameters sensitivity was explored through the Morris method. Simulations reveal long-term trends in ESs and state variables, showing a marked long-term decline of lifecycle maintenance and fishing activities, driven by the negative trends of intertidal habitats and fauna. Habitat loss, restoration, and lagoon high-tide regulation influence the lifecycle maintenance ESs, shaping faunal dynamics; nonetheless, the decline in provisioning ESs is also related to the trend in actors, including artisanal and recreational fishers. Simulation outputs and sensitivity analysis showed that the model is capable of representing contrasting feedbacks among different cultural ESs, habitat dynamics and fauna, which are subjected to the exogenous trends in tourists and residents, highlighting leverage points for lagoon management. Comparison with historical data and sensitivity patterns provides guidance for future model development and applications to policy scenarios.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"515 ","pages":"Article 111473"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146191925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Why should models talk to each other? A multipronged modelling strategy as an operational framework to guide adaptive watershed management in the Bay of Quinte Basin, Ontario, Canada 模特们为什么要互相交谈呢?多管齐下的建模策略,作为指导加拿大安大略省昆特湾流域适应性管理的操作框架
IF 3.2 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111506
Carlos Alberto Arnillas, Aisha Javed, Alex Neumann, Lamees Shah, George B. Arhonditsis
{"title":"Why should models talk to each other? A multipronged modelling strategy as an operational framework to guide adaptive watershed management in the Bay of Quinte Basin, Ontario, Canada","authors":"Carlos Alberto Arnillas,&nbsp;Aisha Javed,&nbsp;Alex Neumann,&nbsp;Lamees Shah,&nbsp;George B. Arhonditsis","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111506","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111506","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Environmental modelling has been one of the pillars of the adaptive watershed management process. It provides a way for scientists, managers, and other stakeholders to assess the existing understanding of the managed system and the knowledge gaps we seek to answer through monitoring and research. However, current watershed modelling and restoration efforts often fail to consider the role of different sources of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty surrounding the effectiveness of management practices. Estimating effectiveness is difficult because of poor spatial delineation of nutrient “hot-spots” at the regional planning level, misrepresentation of critical hydrological and biogeochemical processes at the watershed level, and several unaccounted factors operating at the individual farm or field levels, among others. Here, we outline an ongoing multi-pronged modelling approach for the Bay of Quinte that has been supporting the management in the area over the last ten years with the active participation of local stakeholders. The framework encompasses (<em>i</em>) regional assessment of high risk for nutrient export in time and space using mass-balance and semi-empirical nutrient loading models, (<em>ii</em>) mechanistic representations of watershed processes, and (<em>iii</em>) process-based representations of field dynamics. We summarize the key results from more than a dozen of research projects in that region and propose a coherent approach to integrate the information provided by them to improve modelling and monitoring. This framework specifies questions, methods, and data requirements relevant to each of its components, and the way they complement each other. This experience can provide a blueprint for adaptive watershed management worldwide.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"515 ","pages":"Article 111506"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146191614","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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