Ecological Modelling最新文献

{"title":"Exploring physiological constraints on life-history traits using Dynamic Energy Budgets","authors":"Mélanie Debelgarric,&nbsp;Charlotte Récapet","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110993","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110993","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A current challenge in predicting species responses to global change is to understand evolutionary responses to rapidly changing environments and novel environmental conditions. It has been hypothesised that the speed of evolution would be contingent uponhighly dependent on evolutionary constraints shaped by resource allocation trade-offs and other physiological mechanisms underlying the expression of traits. However, the majority of models employed to investigate life-history evolution remain phenomenological in nature. They fail to incorporate realistic mechanisms for the transfer and transformation of resources that are in accordance with the established laws of physics and chemistry. Our objective was therefore to explore the full range of life-history strategies that are genuinely available to organisms through realistic metabolic processes and to compare them with the predictions made by classical life-history theories. To this end, we employed the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory to model the energy allocation of individuals. We studied inter-individual variation by varying the value of energetic primary parameters (i.e. physiological processes) of the model, under constant environmental conditions (optimal temperature and ad libitum food source). Physiological processes that impact both growth and reproduction, such as energy acquisition, allocation and mobilisation, were found to reproduce the predictions of life-history theory to a certain extent. However, some discrepancies remained, mainly because DEB theory accounts for physiological retro-actions that are not articulated in life-history theories. For example, quicker growth had an indirect impact on reproduction and ageing through respectively increased resource acquisition and dilution of damage-inducing compounds. Based on those insights, we propose future directions to integrate physiology, and in particular metabolism, into models of life-history evolution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110993"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159371","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fine-scale surface complexity promotes temperature extremes but reduces the spatial extent of refugia on coastal rocks","authors":"T.J. Barrett ,&nbsp;M. Li ,&nbsp;T. Gouhier ,&nbsp;G. Rilov ,&nbsp;B. Helmuth ,&nbsp;F. Choi ,&nbsp;S. Filin ,&nbsp;S. Müftü","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110969","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110969","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The physical structure of microhabitats, especially orientation to direct solar radiation, can radically influence the body temperatures of individual organisms, their physiological performance, and survival. Using a numerical approach via finite element (FE) analysis to simulate the spatial and temporal temperature variations in rocky intertidal habitats, we systematically explored the role of substrate roughness in driving variability of surface temperatures at scales relevant to very small (cm) organisms. This approach accounts for three-dimensional heat exchange among fine-scale (mm-cm) surface features through radiation, convection, and conduction. Analyses were performed for a surface mapped using a terrestrial laser scanner at an intertidal site on the coast of Haifa, Israel. Simulation results provided comparable temperatures to those recorded in the field via infrared camera. A series of rough surfaces were generated numerically to explore relationships between the scale of surface roughness and microhabitat temperatures, and how these relationships changed both over a diurnal cycle and across seasons. Overall, increasing habitat complexity had little influence on the average temperature of a ∼1 m² surface, despite differences of up to 25 °C among microhabitats within that surface. Temperature magnitudes of the hottest and coolest microhabitats increased markedly with roughness, generally supporting the ‘habitat heterogeneity hypothesis’ where a range of thermal microenvironments is predicted to increase with surface roughness. Here, we attribute this pattern to the observation that the presence of cool, shaded “valley” microhabitats is invariably accompanied by the presence of “peaks” exposed to full, direct solar radiation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110969"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159718","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamic energy budget modelling of anuran metamorphosis","authors":"Carlo Romoli ,&nbsp;Benoit Goussen ,&nbsp;Lennart Weltje ,&nbsp;Pernille Thorbek ,&nbsp;Douglas J. Fort ,&nbsp;Brittanie F. Peake ,&nbsp;Joachim Kleinmann ,&nbsp;Erik B. Muller","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110936","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110936","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The metamorphosis of aquatic anuran tadpoles to the air-breathing (terrestrial) tetrapod life form is a process that is sensitive to the impacts of natural and anthropogenic stressors. Therefore, metamorphosis is of particular interest in environmental hazard and risk assessment. Current Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) models that deal with anuran metamorphosis do not have a particular focus on the plasticity of the metamorphosis climax and can thus not be used to evaluate those impacts. In order to remedy this issue, we have developed two independent modeling modules describing anuran metamorphosis, and its plasticity and implemented them in the standard DEB model. Our model meets three important criteria. First, adequately fed tadpoles should be able to emerge as viable frog/toadlets, which is important as tadpoles do not feed during the metamorphosis climax. Second, the model should allow the partial repurposing of structural mass, e.g., resources contained in the tail and gills, during the metamorphosis climax. Third, the model should be able to predict that moderate temperature increases will cause frog- and toadlets to emerge quicker and at a smaller size. The model successfully describes various endpoints, such as the start and end of the metamorphosis climax, and weight and length of the tadpoles from hatching to the completion of metamorphosis as functions of food availability and temperature. This was done for anuran species from four distinct families, namely the common frog <em>Rana temporaria</em> (Ranidae), the common toad <em>Bufo bufo</em> (Bufonidae), the African clawed frog <em>Xenopus laevis</em> (Pipidae) and the gray tree frog <em>Dryophytes versicolor</em> (Hylidae). It is to be expected that the developed modules can be universally applied to other anuran species and likely also to other amphibian species such as urodeles that also undergo metamorphosis. We propose to use this model for establishing a normal operating range that can be used as a baseline in the environmental hazard and risk assessment of pesticides.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110936"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159786","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Machine learning emulators of dynamical systems for understanding ecosystem behaviour","authors":"Oriol Pomarol Moya ,&nbsp;Siamak Mehrkanoon ,&nbsp;Madlene Nussbaum ,&nbsp;Walter W. Immerzeel ,&nbsp;Derek Karssenberg","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110956","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110956","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Minimal models (MM) aim to capture the simplified behaviour of complex systems to facilitate system-level analyses that would be unfeasible with more sophisticated numerical models. However, the choices involved in minimal model development heavily rely on expert knowledge, a source of bias that can interfere with good modelling practices. In this paper, a new method is proposed in which a machine learning (ML) model is trained with transient data generated by a detailed physically-based numerical model, predicting the rate of change of the target state variables given their current value and additional drivers. The trained model is then used to mimic the analysis made with traditional minimal models. This approach (ML-MM) is deployed in a semiarid hillslope ecosystem characterising its soil and vegetation components. The ML-MM outputs share most of the general features with previous expert-based results but show a better ability of the hillslope to (1) recover its vegetation, (2) resist total disappearance of the soil and (3) reach substantially higher soil depths in steady state. Furthermore, a new intermediate stable equilibrium is found between the already known healthy and degraded ones, revealing a more complex pattern of ecosystem collapse that avoids a critical shift, as supported by numerical model simulations. The transient behaviour is also investigated, from which we conclude that the system can exhibit strong reactivity, that is, an initial deviation away from equilibrium after a perturbation. In conclusion, the present study demonstrates the potential of ML-MM to obtain new scientific insights on complex systems that might be missed by expert-based alternatives. Hence, minimal models may benefit greatly from incorporating detailed numerical models and data-driven simplification in their development process. Ultimately, this methodology could be applicable to many fields of study and even be expanded to observational data, enhancing our understanding of real-world complex system dynamics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110956"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159787","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A process-based dynamic modelling study of the impact of discharge water from shrimp culture on riverine nitrogen cycling: A case study","authors":"Suvendu Das ,&nbsp;Sagar Adhurya ,&nbsp;Prithwi Ghosh ,&nbsp;Santanu Ray","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110995","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110995","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Shrimp is the primary aquaculture product exported from India in the global market. The shrimp industry contributes to the economic boom in the coastal provinces of India. However, shrimp culture imposes several externalities on the local ecosystem. One of the vital concerns is the nutrient-rich, chemically manipulated culture water discharge, which causes violations of sustainable and cleaner shrimp culture protocols. This study aims to understand the impacts of culture water on the nitrogen cycle of the river. The water is periodically released back into the river through a canal from the shrimp farms. This study was conducted by building a process-based system dynamic model following modelling protocols. The model was simulated, calibrated, and validated with the observed data collected from periodic sampling from the river, shrimp farms, and canals. Seven state variables were considered, and sediment nitrogen was treated as a single state variable. The interrelationship between different state variables was established by the inflows and outflows, incorporating several parameters. Study results indicate that <em>NOx</em> (nitrate and nitrite) is the main nutrient influx from the culture water. The model is a good predictor for the water column nitrogen components. The ecological functionality by different rate parameters of biotic components (Zooplankton and Phytoplankton) are not sensitive for this model's nitrogenous state variables. By the model outcomes, no direct relation between shrimp culture and the abundance of biotic components of this model can be established. Sediment nitrogen acts as the sink for the water column nitrogen components. This modelling study focuses on one of the river's vital regulatory ecosystem services, <em>i.e</em>., the nitrogen cycle. This model can be implemented to predict the impacts of any water discharge from such production on the nitrogen cycle of a lotic system. The study is important for establishing viable production protocols to achieve a sustainable balance between the shrimp production industry and the ecosystem.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110995"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Extreme capital breeding for giants: Effects of body size on humpback whale energy expenditure and fasting endurance","authors":"Fredrik Christiansen ,&nbsp;Peter T Madsen ,&nbsp;Virginia Andrews-Goff ,&nbsp;Mike C Double ,&nbsp;Jason R How ,&nbsp;Phil Clapham ,&nbsp;Yulia Ivashchenko ,&nbsp;Dmitry Tormosov ,&nbsp;Kate R Sprogis","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110994","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110994","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Baleen whales are extreme capital breeders, capable of fasting for more than half a year while migrating thousands of kilometres and nursing rapidly growing offspring that quadruple in body size over the same period. To understand this energetic conundrum, bioenergetic models that quantify the energy expenditure of baleen whales relative to their body energy reserves (body condition) are required. However, due to the difficulty in measuring the physiology and bioenergetics of large whales, few empirically informed models are available. Here we develop a bioenergetic model for humpback whales (<em>Megaptera novaeangliae</em>) off Western Australia to quantify their daily and seasonal energy expenditure over the breeding season. Specifically, we hypothesised that body size (length) would have a negative effect on the mass-specific energy expenditure of whales, and reduce female reproductive costs. A larger body size would also increase the absolute energy reserves, and hence fasting ability of humpback whales. To test this, we used a unique combination of field methodologies, including behavioural focal follows, aerial photogrammetry, and satellite tagging. To quantify the daily energetic cost of body maintenance, activity, somatic growth, and reproduction (gestation and lactation), we combined fine-scale behavioural and body morphometric data. Seasonal energy loss was estimated from changes in body condition, using aerial photogrammetry data. Migration timing and swim speed were calculated from satellite tag movement data. The resulting bioenergetic model showed that body size had a strong negative effect on the mass-specific energy expenditure of whales, and a positive effect on the fasting ability and residency time of juveniles and adults. Maternal body size had a positive effect on calf birth size and growth, so that calves of larger females reached their departure size quicker and begin their migration back to the Antarctic feeding grounds. The body condition loss during the breeding season declined with body size for juveniles (26.9-14.4%) and lactating females (28.3-7.8%), while adults maintained a constant loss (14.4-15.0%) by increasing their residency time. The ability of humpback whales to support such high seasonal energetic costs with only stored energy reserves highlights the energetic benefits that gigantism provides in these extreme capital breeders.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110994"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling polar bear (Ursus maritimus) snowdrift den habitat on Alaska's Beaufort Sea coast using SnowDens-3D and ArcticDEM data","authors":"Glen E. Liston ,&nbsp;Katherine B. Gura ,&nbsp;Justin A. Crawford ,&nbsp;Lori Polasek ,&nbsp;Craig J. Perham ,&nbsp;Lori Quakenbush ,&nbsp;Adele K. Reinking ,&nbsp;Jewell Lund ,&nbsp;Sarah M. Chinn ,&nbsp;Richard T. Shideler ,&nbsp;Ryan R. Wilson","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110939","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110939","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Pregnant polar bears (<em>Ursus maritimus</em>) excavate maternal dens in seasonal snowdrifts during fall along Alaska's Beaufort Sea coast to shelter their altricial young during birth and development. With recent sea ice decreases, bears are denning more frequently on land. Each year, the weather and blowing-snow conditions control the creation of snowdrifts across the landscape. Therefore, available snowdrift den habitat can vary widely from one year to the next, depending on the late fall and early winter air temperature, snowfall, and wind speed and direction. We implemented a physics-based, spatiotemporal, polar bear snowdrift den habitat model (SnowDens-3D) across the eastern Alaska Beaufort Sea coast (an area of approximately 17,000 km²). High-resolution (2.0 m) topography data were provided by the ArcticDEM, and daily meteorological forcings were provided by NASA's MERRA-2 reanalysis. In many areas across the Arctic Alaska simulation domain, the raw ArcticDEM data contained physically unrealistic topographic anomalies (bumps and depressions) of similar magnitude (± 1.5 m) to the topographic variations that underlie potential den habitat (height differences of approximately 1.5 m). To create an ArcticDEM dataset for this den habitat model, considerable pre-processing of the ArcticDEM data was required; we implemented numerous filters to remove the topographic anomalies while preserving those topographic features capable of creating snowdrifts deep enough to provide viable polar bear den habitat. A 21-year (2000–2020) SnowDens-3D simulation was performed, and model outputs were compared with 91 historical polar bear den locations. The year-specific simulations identified viable den habitat for 98% of the observed den locations. The interannual variation in den habitat area over the 21-year period ranged by approximately a factor of three from the minimum year (2001; 554 km²) to the maximum year (2017; 1,566 km²). The ability to identify viable polar bear snowdrift den habitat in near-real time, as demonstrated here, will help wildlife managers and industry personnel identify potential polar bear maternity den sites and minimize disturbance to occupied dens.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110939"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159919","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global sensitivity analysis of the harmonized Lemna model","authors":"Chloé Guisnet ,&nbsp;Stefan Reichenberger ,&nbsp;Elena Alonso García ,&nbsp;Frank Voss","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111016","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111016","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mechanistic effect modelling is becoming increasingly important for environmental risk assessment in the framework of pesticide authorization. For instance, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has judged the model for the aquatic macrophyte test organism <em>Lemna</em> as “ready for use.” Nevertheless, national regulatory authorities are still hesitant to accept mechanistic effect modelling studies.</div><div>In order to increase the confidence in the Lemna model, in this study we performed a two-step global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of the harmonized model. GSA notably allows identifying and ranking the importance of i) toxicokinetic (TK) and toxicodynamic (TD) parameters, ii) physiological and ecological parameters, iii) environmental driving variables, and iv) initial conditions.</div><div>In a first step a Morris sensitivity screening was conducted to filter out non-influential input factors. In a second step, a true variance-based GSA was carried out with the Sobol method. The GSA was conducted for four different concentration levels and three different exposure regimes: constant, pulsed and realistic. Moreover, two different sets of input distributions of TKTD parameters were examined. The target variables were the effects of the pesticide on <em>Lemna</em> biomass and average growth rate.</div><div>Both Morris and Sobol GSA showed that for a specific substance three physiological parameters (optimum and minimum growth temperature, maximum photosynthesis rate) and the initial biomass BM0 were more important than the five TKTD parameters. Hence, for predictive applications of the model outside a laboratory context, BM0 must be chosen carefully, and uncertainty in the main physiological parameters must be reduced to a minimum.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 111016"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The role of wild birds in transmitting highly pathogenic avian influenza in Denmark: An exploration using a spatiotemporal model","authors":"Yangfan Liu ,&nbsp;Lene Jung Kjær ,&nbsp;Anette Ella Boklund ,&nbsp;Preben Clausen ,&nbsp;Timme Nyegaard ,&nbsp;Michael P. Ward ,&nbsp;Shawn Laffan ,&nbsp;Carsten Thure Kirkeby","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111019","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111019","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We developed a stochastic spatiotemporal simulation model, DanHPAIwild, to explore the transmission dynamics of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in wild bird populations and generate a time-dependent risk map in Denmark. Denmark and its near-coast waters were rasterised into 10 × 10 km cells. Weekly changes in abundance of five waterbird species over an epidemiological year (October to September) were estimated by adjusting missing reports and then comparing the estimates with raw population numbers. The model consisted of two parts: bird abundance and environmental transmission. Dynamics of bird abundance were modelled using voluntarily reported weekly bird counts, published literature, and expert opinion on bird ecology. Environmental transmission simulated HPAI virus (HPAIV) exposure via consumption of contaminated water, together with viral shedding in the rasterised cells. We calibrated and initialised the model with passive surveillance data from the 2020/21 season, refining inputs to minimise deviations between simulated and observed outcomes. Sensitivity analyses revealed that variations in the median infection dose and peak time of contacts notably influencing the simulated bird mortality. The model also examined removing infectious dead birds as a potential control strategy, showing that removing 50 % reduced the annual HPAIV mortality by 38 % compared to implementing no interventions. The model reflects well the real-life spatiotemporal patterns, highlighting high-risk areas close to coastline and water areas. These findings offer valuable insights into HPAIV dynamics in wild birds in Denmark and can aid resource allocation for interventions and surveillance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 111019"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159929","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantile regression for estimating Douglas-fir natural regeneration potential using the R package quaxnat: Advanced ecological modeling for the management of nature conservation and silviculture","authors":"Maximilian Axer ,&nbsp;Robert Schlicht ,&nbsp;Lukas Blickensdörfer","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110968","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110968","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent extreme weather conditions in Europe have led to widespread destruction of Norway spruce by storms and bark beetles, creating large clearings that need replanting. The shortage of planting material has shifted focus to natural regeneration processes, with Douglas-fir (<em>Pseudotsuga menziesii</em> [Mirb.] Franco) emerging as a potential substitute due to its growth performance and drought tolerance. This study introduces and applies methods for investigating the regeneration ecology of Douglas-fir, focusing on the potential density of established regeneration and its dependence on the distance to the nearest seed source.</div><div>This dependence is modelled with various classical spatial dispersal kernels, the parameters of which are estimated with a quantile regression approach implemented in a new R package <em>quaxnat</em>. Regeneration data from 44,257 sample plots in the state forest of Lower Saxony, Germany, are combined with remote sensing-based positions of potential seed trees to illustrate these methods. Among the standard dispersal kernels provided by <em>quaxnat</em>, the <em>spatial t distribution</em> proves to be the most suitable. Here, for the .999th quantile, the estimated potential regeneration density reaches almost 11,000 trees per hectare in the immediate vicinity of the seed trees and decreases sharply with increasing distance.</div><div>A simple simulation model that takes dispersal and establishment into account illustrates how these results can be linked to management scenarios. The study provides valuable information for nature conservation and silviculture, suggesting buffer zones around sensitive habitats and guiding forest management decisions regarding natural regeneration options.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110968"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143158986","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}