Ecological Modelling最新文献

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Beyond guides, protocols and acronyms: Adoption of good modelling practices depends on challenging academia's status quo in ecology 超越指南、协议和缩略语:良好建模实践的采用取决于对生态学学术现状的挑战
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2024-08-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110829
Tatiane Micheletti , Marie-Christin Wimmler , Uta Berger , Volker Grimm , Eliot J. McIntire
{"title":"Beyond guides, protocols and acronyms: Adoption of good modelling practices depends on challenging academia's status quo in ecology","authors":"Tatiane Micheletti ,&nbsp;Marie-Christin Wimmler ,&nbsp;Uta Berger ,&nbsp;Volker Grimm ,&nbsp;Eliot J. McIntire","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110829","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110829","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Implementing good modelling practices (GMP) in ecological sciences is key to improving scientific reliability. Despite the increased availability of guidelines and protocols detailing how principles such as FAIR and PERFICT can be implemented to improve good modelling practices, the sharing of code which can reproduce results and workflows remains remarkably low. In this work, we explore potential root causes of this discrepancy. We identify three key factors inherent to the current academic structure that, in our experience, might play a role in hindering a wider adoption of GMP: (1) acknowledgment of the time required to implement GMP in projects, (2) the lack of GMP and software development training among ecologists, and (3) perception of GMP as unrewarding in the short-term. We argue that there is an urgent need for systemic changes. Such changes include (1) a cultural shift to value the incorporation of GMP across projects, emphasising the need for explicit budget allocation and careful scheduling of its implementation, (2) redesigning academic curricula to explicitly include GMP and software development as fundamental disciplines in ecology, and (3) an increase in recognition of open and functional code and workflows for career advancement. We call for concerted efforts for bridging this gap, and propose a hopeful outlook emphasising the role of a new generation of scientists and tools committed to good science. Proposing concrete actions, we aim to start a discussion on challenging academia's status quo in ecology and support scientists in bringing a significant paradigm shift to ecological modelling.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"496 ","pages":"Article 110829"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380024002175/pdfft?md5=b466c22cb85dd462f8fc415556c999ce&pid=1-s2.0-S0304380024002175-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141998024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Flipbook-ENA: Towards a dynamic Ecological Network Analysis under changing environmental conditions Flipbook-ENA: 在不断变化的环境条件下实现动态生态网络分析
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2024-08-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110834
Joel Habedank , Sabine Horn , Dan Baird , Peter Lemke , Jasmin Renz , Vera Sidorenko , Karen H. Wiltshire
{"title":"Flipbook-ENA: Towards a dynamic Ecological Network Analysis under changing environmental conditions","authors":"Joel Habedank ,&nbsp;Sabine Horn ,&nbsp;Dan Baird ,&nbsp;Peter Lemke ,&nbsp;Jasmin Renz ,&nbsp;Vera Sidorenko ,&nbsp;Karen H. Wiltshire","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110834","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110834","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Changes in abiotic parameters can affect ecosystem structure and function. Network models with subsequent Ecological Network Analysis (ENA) are often used for the quantification of ecosystem-wide properties with descriptive system indices. However, dynamic abiotic alterations of an ecosystem cannot be resolved with the “state of the art” ENA as the methodology of analyses is static in both space and time. In this study, we present a new, almost dynamic ENA “Flipbook-ENA” which allows for the trend analysis of system indices over a defined range of abiotic factors. Flipbook-ENA enables an approximation of the dynamic system response by discretizing the continuous influence of abiotic factors and by calculating the corresponding changes in the model for each discretization step. ENA indices are therefore obtained as a discrete function of the abiotic conditions. We applied this new concept to two aquatic food web models as case studies, using temperature as the influencing abiotic factor. Flipbook-ENA can be considered an enhancement of ENA flexibility, also facilitating the provision of a quantitative assessment basis for socially, economically and ecologically-balanced management of ecosystems in unstable environmental conditions under the pressure of climate change.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"496 ","pages":"Article 110834"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380024002229/pdfft?md5=adfe9e92e530e6c5edfdc4a2eb151920&pid=1-s2.0-S0304380024002229-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141993488","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dynamic modeling of lytic virus transmission among phytoplankton driven by nitrogen and phosphorus 由氮和磷驱动的裂解病毒在浮游植物间传播的动态模型
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2024-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110837
Ming Chen , Honghui Gao , Jimin Zhang
{"title":"Dynamic modeling of lytic virus transmission among phytoplankton driven by nitrogen and phosphorus","authors":"Ming Chen ,&nbsp;Honghui Gao ,&nbsp;Jimin Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110837","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110837","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Lytic viruses infect phytoplankton and cause their mass mortalities. A dynamic model is proposed to explore lytic virus transmission among phytoplankton. The ecological reproductive index for the survival ability of phytoplankton and the basic reproduction number for the spreading ability of lytic viruses are established by analyzing dynamical properties of the model. We estimate parameter values of the model from Maat and Brussaard’s experimental data and theoretically examine Maat and Brussaard’s hypotheses that lytic virus transmission is driven by nitrogen and phosphorus. Our studies show that lytic viruses cannot spread among phytoplankton in low nitrogen or low phosphorus aquatic environments. The numerical diagrams also suggest that the increase in nitrogen and phosphorus during the spread of lytic viruses does not always cause phytoplankton blooms.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"496 ","pages":"Article 110837"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141984878","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
More than just a roof under their feet: How spatial and structural features of a coastal city predict nest site selection in the urban-nesting Glaucous-winged Gull (Larus glaucescens) 不仅仅是脚下的屋顶沿海城市的空间和结构特征如何预测城市筑巢的璃翅鸥(Larus glaucescens)的巢址选择
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2024-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110819
Edward Kroc , Louise K. Blight , Min Hai Cao
{"title":"More than just a roof under their feet: How spatial and structural features of a coastal city predict nest site selection in the urban-nesting Glaucous-winged Gull (Larus glaucescens)","authors":"Edward Kroc ,&nbsp;Louise K. Blight ,&nbsp;Min Hai Cao","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110819","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110819","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>How birds use and interact with an urban environment has been of interest for a variety of species across the globe. This has particularly been the case for gulls (Laridae) as species in this family nest and otherwise occupy habitat in urban areas on six continents, often coming into conflict with humans as they do so. In this study, we combine survey data of urban-nesting Glaucous-winged Gulls <em>Larus glaucescens</em> in Vancouver, Canada with detailed information on architectural and spatial features of the structures on which they nest to build an explanatory and predictive statistical model for nest-site selection in our study city. We find that building height is by far the most important explanatory variable in this selection process and that rooftops of higher structures are generally more attractive to nesters, but only up to a certain point. Flat rooftops in non-residential areas that are near water are also highly valued. However, complex relationships exist between these and other variables that offer detailed insights into urban nesting patterns. We use our modelling approach to predict that roughly 1,800 pairs of Glaucous-winged Gulls nested in the city in 2017 and over 2,000 pairs nested in the city in 2023. Combining this with high exact nest and rooftop recurrence rates derived from additional survey data taken between 2015 and 2019, and with historical population data, we argue that this urban population is likely to continue to expand in the near future at roughly 4% per annum. As this species has suffered declines in its natural breeding colonies across the region, this suggests its future in the region may be increasingly urban-centric.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"496 ","pages":"Article 110819"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380024002072/pdfft?md5=87e285332d41d3cbead22e3eb98b8fd6&pid=1-s2.0-S0304380024002072-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141984880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Competition and edge effect in wildlife zoonotic agents 野生动物人畜共患病病原体的竞争和边缘效应
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2024-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110838
Enith A. Gómez-Hernández , Felipe N. Moreno-Gómez , Moisés Bravo-Gaete , Fernando Córdova-Lepe
{"title":"Competition and edge effect in wildlife zoonotic agents","authors":"Enith A. Gómez-Hernández ,&nbsp;Felipe N. Moreno-Gómez ,&nbsp;Moisés Bravo-Gaete ,&nbsp;Fernando Córdova-Lepe","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110838","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110838","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Land-use change emerges as a fundamental factor in the increase in zoonotic diseases, affecting both ecosystems and human populations. The edge effect between forested areas and their surrounding environments, modifies species distribution, and consequently the dynamics zoonotic wildlife. Patches with high perimeter-to-area ratios may experience a more pronounced edge effect, justifying the relevance of studying patch shape in a disease dynamics. In addition, competition between species, especially between those that act as reservoirs and those that do not, plays a crucial role in eco-epidemiological dynamics. In this context, our study addresses competition dynamics between two species employ the Lotka–Volterra model. We introduce an internal classification in the host species with two compartments, susceptible and infected, and model the disease transmission rate using a function linked to parameters associated with the edge effect. Specifically, the transmission rate differentiates interactions between susceptible and infected individuals in the core area and the edge of the patch, being a function dependent on the shape index of the patch, and is of the edge effect and host density. We predicted that, although competition can decrease the spread of the disease among hosts, the edge effect can paradoxically increase it.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"496 ","pages":"Article 110838"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141984879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Analyzing sustainable development strategies through multi-method integration in the Green Economy Model 通过绿色经济模式中的多方法整合分析可持续发展战略
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2024-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110828
Georg Pallaske
{"title":"Analyzing sustainable development strategies through multi-method integration in the Green Economy Model","authors":"Georg Pallaske","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110828","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110828","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Given the increasing interconnectedness of social, economic, and environmental systems, it is increasingly evident there is a need for a new generation of decision support systems to assess the sustainability of development strategies. While existing tools are valuable for conducting detailed assessments within specific sectors, their limitations in establishing cross-sectoral connections and feedback loops often lead to incomplete insights and potential oversight of adverse impacts in other sectors. To address this limitation, we describe an integrated assessment framework that we have successfully applied in collaboration with non-governmental organizations and governments across more than 40 countries. The framework aims to provide a customized analytical approach tailored to specific policy challenges. While System Dynamics serves as the core methodology, the framework promotes the integration of additional methodologies and sectoral modeling results as needed. Four case studies are presented to illustrate the framework's impacts on policy and project outcomes.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"496 ","pages":"Article 110828"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380024002163/pdfft?md5=19e130b023f2c81f52a7c8a159b2c004&pid=1-s2.0-S0304380024002163-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141978644","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bioenergetic strategies contributing to the invasion success of blue catfish 有助于蓝鲶成功入侵的生物能策略
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2024-08-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110830
Vaskar Nepal , Mary C. Fabrizio , Romain Lavaud , Jaap van der Meer
{"title":"Bioenergetic strategies contributing to the invasion success of blue catfish","authors":"Vaskar Nepal ,&nbsp;Mary C. Fabrizio ,&nbsp;Romain Lavaud ,&nbsp;Jaap van der Meer","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110830","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110830","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Blue catfish <em>Ictalurus furcatus</em> is an invasive species in many lakes and coastal rivers of the eastern United States. Due to high population densities and negative effects on native species, the potential for blue catfish to invade and colonize aquatic ecosystems is a key management concern. In addition, managers are interested in understanding the efficacy of harvest removals for controlling population sizes of blue catfish in these systems. These issues would benefit from identification of the eco-physiological mechanisms and strategies that contribute to the establishment and spread of this species in novel environments. In this study, we developed a full life-cycle bioenergetics model for blue catfish based on Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory. We found that blue catfish have low maintenance costs but relatively high reserve capacity, two traits that help explain the success of this invasive species. Specifically, blue catfish seem well adapted for life in low and spatially or temporally patchy food conditions, such that individuals can mature and potentially reproduce even when food levels are as low as 13 % of maximum. Blue catfish may thus outcompete native species in many habitats, including those in estuarine systems. Moreover, blue catfish allocate a large fraction (42 %) of assimilated energy towards reproductive processes. Changes in food availability due to competition can have substantial compensatory effects on the age and size at first reproduction, maximum size, and reproduction rates of blue catfish. At seasonal scales, however, the reproductive output of large individuals is relatively insensitive to food availability during the spawning season. Managers seeking to reduce the abundance of the species in estuarine habitats via increased harvest must consider the metabolic capabilities of blue catfish, along with dynamic density-dependent processes that contribute to increased production of blue catfish in response to lower abundances.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"496 ","pages":"Article 110830"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141964429","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Coastal generalized ecosystem model (CGEM) 1.0: Flexible model formulations for simulating complex biogeochemical processes in aquatic ecosystems 沿海广义生态系统模型 (CGEM) 1.0:用于模拟水生生态系统复杂生物地球化学过程的灵活模型公式
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2024-08-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110831
Brandon M. Jarvis , John C. Lehrter , Lisa Lowe , Bradley Penta , Yongshan Wan , Melissa Duvall , Cody Simmons , Wilson Melendez , Dong S. Ko
{"title":"Coastal generalized ecosystem model (CGEM) 1.0: Flexible model formulations for simulating complex biogeochemical processes in aquatic ecosystems","authors":"Brandon M. Jarvis ,&nbsp;John C. Lehrter ,&nbsp;Lisa Lowe ,&nbsp;Bradley Penta ,&nbsp;Yongshan Wan ,&nbsp;Melissa Duvall ,&nbsp;Cody Simmons ,&nbsp;Wilson Melendez ,&nbsp;Dong S. Ko","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110831","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110831","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Coastal Generalized Ecosystem Model (CGEM) is a biogeochemical model developed to study regulating processes of water-column optical properties, water-column and benthic carbon, oxygen, and nutrient cycles, and phytoplankton and zooplankton dynamics. CGEM offers numerous formulations for important rate processes, providing users flexibility in altering model structure. This flexibility also provides a means for evaluating model structural uncertainty and impacts on simulations, which are rarely evaluated with numerical ecosystem models. As an open-source model, CGEM also offers users the option to implement new formulations or modify existing routines. We also provide a full description of the model formulations, state variables, and model parameters in CGEM. Using two published case studies, we explore how different formulations for light attenuation, phytoplankton temperature growth response, and sediment processes impact simulations. We discuss CGEM's role as a new ecosystem model within the modeling community and opportunities to address current and future water quality issues.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"496 ","pages":"Article 110831"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141964430","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A method for estimating biomass of age-0 fish in case of protracted spawning leading to multiple larval cohorts in the population 在长期产卵导致种群中出现多批幼鱼的情况下估算 0 龄鱼生物量的方法
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2024-08-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110818
Feodor Lobyrev , Alexei Sharov , Tatiana Kuzmicheva
{"title":"A method for estimating biomass of age-0 fish in case of protracted spawning leading to multiple larval cohorts in the population","authors":"Feodor Lobyrev ,&nbsp;Alexei Sharov ,&nbsp;Tatiana Kuzmicheva","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110818","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110818","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We propose a new method for estimating the density and biomass of fish larvae and early juveniles when spawning is extended over time and the egg production in spawning groups varies widely with time. As a proof of concept, the method is applied to catch data for age–0 polar cod (<em>Boreogadus saida</em>), collected by the ichthyoplankton survey in the Kara Sea in 2019. The biomass among different size classes of age–0 fish was calculated based on the selectivity of a Bongo net with 500-μm mesh size. The age of larvae and juveniles in each group and average length at hatch (5.5 mm) were determined used for assessing average growth rate (0.18 mm/day) and hatching date for each age–0 fish assemblage. By fitting the population curve to the samples of age–0 polar cod collected in a small area sequentially over ten days, the instantaneous rate of natural mortality was estimated as ∼ 0.05 day<sup>-1</sup>. Changes in abundance and biomass over time were modeled by the Baranov's equation and power growth function. The average biomass for the time step of interest was calculated by projecting each cohort abundance to a selected point in time and taking a weighted average of all cohort biomasses.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"496 ","pages":"Article 110818"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141963934","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Evaluation of potential factors affecting the success of Cisco re-introduction and re-establishment in Lake Huron 评估影响休伦湖中思科鱼重新引入和重新建立成功的潜在因素
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2024-08-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110817
David G. Fielder , Kevin N. McDonnell
{"title":"Evaluation of potential factors affecting the success of Cisco re-introduction and re-establishment in Lake Huron","authors":"David G. Fielder ,&nbsp;Kevin N. McDonnell","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110817","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110817","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Recent food web changes led to an opportunity to reintroduce (fingerling stocking) Cisco in central Lake Huron. We examined 9 factors affecting the ability of stocked Cisco fingerlings to survive, and reproduce and for their progeny to survive and reproduce. These values (obtained from the literature) were applied to a stochastic Leslie Matrix model and projected forward 30 years. The mean terminal eigenvalue (λ) of the final 10 years was used to indicate if the resulting wild population would continue to increase or decrease and thresholds for each variable. Recovery success was sensitive to survival rates especially in early life stages. Numbers stocked and the rate of homing by hatchery fish only affected the rate of recovery. Adult survival, if adjusted up, helped compensate for many of the earlier life stages lower survival rates. Simulations indicated the likelihood of successful establishment of ongoing natural reproduction if periodicity of boom years of reproduction were at least once every 5 years on average, but higher adult survival rates can relax this requirement allowing for an expanding population at less frequent periodicities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"496 ","pages":"Article 110817"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380024002059/pdfft?md5=1ed3ad045f901a94225af8718069e223&pid=1-s2.0-S0304380024002059-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141963933","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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