Ecological Modelling最新文献

{"title":"From tipping point to tipping set: Extending the concept of regime shift to uncertain dynamics for real-world applications","authors":"Jean-Denis Mathias,&nbsp;Guillaume Deffuant,&nbsp;Antoine Brias","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110801","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110801","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The concept of regime shift generally refers to a deterministic dynamical system switching from an attraction basin to another after an isolated perturbation. However, when the dynamics is constantly submitted to random perturbations, the system can go back and forth between attraction basins and the usual concept seems inadequate. To address this issue, we consider a stochastic dynamical system and we assume that its functioning is satisfactory in a subset of its state space, called the satisfaction set. We define regimes with respect to the propensity of the system to become and to remain satisfactory. We investigate two indicators available in the literature: (i) the first-exit time from the satisfaction set and (ii) the sojourn time in the satisfaction set. Using statistics on these indicators, we define regimes of durable or resilient satisfaction. Applying the same definitions to the dissatisfaction set, we define durable or resilient dissatisfaction. Our results show the emergence of a tipping set, equivalent to tipping point in the deterministic case. We illustrate our approach using three different types of dynamics: two theoretical models based on the exploitation of natural resources and predator–prey dynamics, as well as the eutrophication of the French Lake Bourget.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"496 ","pages":"Article 110801"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380024001893/pdfft?md5=cb3c69feafeac0769b6dfcf3894f305b&pid=1-s2.0-S0304380024001893-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141931503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Including ocean acidification effects on biocalcification through dynamic energy budget modelling","authors":"Brecht Stechele ,&nbsp;Romain Lavaud","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110816","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110816","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Climate change impacts on ocean biogeochemistry are expected to alter calcium carbonate formation by organisms, necessitating accurate predictive models based on physiological mechanisms. The dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory offer a mechanistic and integrative framework to model organism metabolism under environmental stressors. In this work, we 1) review the physiological and energetic mechanisms of biogenic calcification, 2) propose a generalized approach for inclusion in DEB modelling based on stylized facts, and 3) formulate the effects of saturation state changes on the bioenergetics of calcification. While applicable to any species performing biogenic calcification (microalgae, shellfish, fish, corals), we tested the model on bivalve species for which extensive tissue and shell data are available. The model was successfully applied to larval, juvenile, and adult life stages compared to published data. The model reproduced typical tissue and shell growth patterns under favourable saturation states and we explored the effects of more detrimental values for biocalcification on shell and tissue dynamics. We also identified missing data and experiments that should help calibrate model parameters. This work represents a necessary step to predict the physiological response of biocalcifiers to ocean acidification and provides a mechanistic tool for shell dynamics in nutrient cycling models.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"496 ","pages":"Article 110816"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141931504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Uncovering the impacts of LUCC on ecological connectivity in suburban open-pit mining concentration areas: A pattern collection of changing relationships between ecological resistance and ecological network elements","authors":"Zhongyong Wei ,&nbsp;Tao Liu ,&nbsp;Huaixiang Liang ,&nbsp;Zhe Zhang ,&nbsp;Chunhui Wang ,&nbsp;Yadong Lv ,&nbsp;Jizhe Sun ,&nbsp;Qi Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110815","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110815","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The suburban open-pit mining concentration area couples two human activities, urban sprawl and open-pit mining, while destruction of surface vegetation and ecological restoration coexist. This has also resulted in complex land use shifts that significantly affect regional ecological connectivity. However, the impact of such complex Land use/land cover changes (LUCC) on ecological connectivity in this region is not well understood Therefore, this study takes the suburban open-pit mining concentration area of Jinan City as a case study and uses Land use/land cover (LULC) data from the years 2000, 2010, and 2020 to simulate the spatio-temporal evolution of ecological networks (ENs). Subsequently, a pattern collection of changing relationships was proposed that relate changes in ecological resistance to changes in EN elements, addressing the dynamic transmission process from \"spatial field\" to \"spatial structure entity\". Based on this approach, GeoDetector is employed to reveal the response extent of EN elements to LUCC. The results indicate: (1) In the past 20 years, the area of construction land has increased by 100 %, while mining land has increased by 69 %. This significant increase in LUCC has led to a notable enhancement in ecological resistance in the study area, driving the generation of 20 % more ecological pinch points and barriers. Additionally, it has resulted in a twofold increase in both the number and length of level 1 ecological corridors. (2) The dominant status and structure of grassland, agriculture land, and woodland remain relatively stable; however, the interflow among them has caused approximately 25 % of the ecological corridors to undergo changes such as disappearance and path alteration. (3) The implementation of ecological protection and restoration has led to a continuous increase in the area of ecological sources, particularly with the mining rehabilitation increasing by 32.7 times compared to 2000, thereby driving gradual improvement in 25 % of the ecological network elements. (4) Although the quantity and length of ecological corridors in the study area remain relatively stable, evaluation results indicate that its spatial structure is gradually deteriorating, with ecological connectivity decreasing by 7.7 %. This study highlights the importance of restoration of ecological processes in sub-urban open-pit mining concentration areas. The study results can provide a scientific basis for ecological restoration and sustainable development in resource-based cities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"496 ","pages":"Article 110815"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141882544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Production efficiency differences among populations can be explained by physiology","authors":"Jaap van der Meer ,&nbsp;Tan Tjui Yeuw ,&nbsp;Karen van de Wolfshaar","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110810","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110810","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Production efficiency may differ considerably among individuals and populations. Here we theoretically analyze to what extent differences in efficiency among populations relate to basic physiological processes. We derive characteristics for a stationary population of constant size using (1) an extended Bertalanffy growth equation and (2) Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory to describe individual energetics and mortality combined with an additional thinning rule to provide a more realistic description of survival than the one usually made by only assuming constant background mortality. The production-assimilation ratio as predicted by DEB theory appeared to be strongly correlated with the Bertalanffy growth coefficient and the ultimate reproduction rate. Birds and to a lesser extent mammals have a much lower ratio than other taxa. Benthic marine invertebrate grazers, which are mainly molluscs, showed a higher ratio than pelagic grazers, mostly arthropods, which may have consequences for overall ecological efficiency when marine coastal systems get more dominated by the benthic compartment as a result of human impacts such as the construction of windfarms.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"496 ","pages":"Article 110810"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380024001984/pdfft?md5=8827e4a24e5d3bdbd822b3b414b7f75a&pid=1-s2.0-S0304380024001984-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141882545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How to be a successful shrub in northwestern Patagonia grasslands: Population dynamics of Senecio bracteolatus in a fire prone ecosystem","authors":"Mónica de Torres Curth ,&nbsp;Sofía Gonzalez ,&nbsp;Jorgelina Franzese ,&nbsp;Viviana Zimmerman ,&nbsp;Agustín Sáez ,&nbsp;Luciana Ghermandi","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110811","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110811","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In arid and semi-arid environments, demographic processes of shrubs are affected by fire and precipitation. Understanding the impact on the demographic processes of the population is crucial for ecosystem conservation and management. Our aim was to assess the population dynamics of the native shrub <em>Senecio bracteolatus</em> and its relation to fire frequency and precipitation in northwestern Patagonia. We constructed a stochastic matrix model and we conducted numerical simulations to evaluate scenarios varying fire frequency and precipitation. To parameterize the model, we conducted greenhouse and common garden experiments and collected previous field and precipitation data. We divided the <em>S. bracteolatus</em> life cycle into four classes (current year seedlings, previous year seedlings, juvenile, and adult plants) and two recruitment microsites (under tussock canopy and gaps between tussocks). The climate was included in the model as accumulated spring and summer precipitation. The former affects seedling germination, while the latter affects fire regimes. The model predicts that frequent fires (every four years) increase the population of <em>S. bracteolatus</em>, but if fires are infrequent (more than 16 years), the population increase with an annual rate of growth of around 8.5 %. However, for annual and biannual fire frequencies, the population experiences a decline, and with a three-year fire return interval, it stabilizes. High fire frequencies lead to population decrease, attributed to the reduction of the protective canopy of tussock grasses, essential for the recruitment of the shrub. The population growth rate of <em>S. bracteolatus</em> increases significantly more when spring precipitation is above historical averages, and fire frequency increases when summers are dry. Our study contributes to understanding the influence of fire and precipitation on shrub demographic processes in the context of climate change, providing useful information for fire management to improve the sustainable use of grasslands.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"496 ","pages":"Article 110811"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141882655","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Simulation of the physiological and photosynthetic characteristics of C3 and C4 plants under elevated temperature and CO2 concentration","authors":"Wei Tian ,&nbsp;Chenfei Su ,&nbsp;Nan Zhang ,&nbsp;Yuwei Zhao ,&nbsp;Long Tang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110805","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110805","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;p&gt;Presently, rapid global climate change, escalating atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; concentrations, and associated global warming, alongside other critical issues, are exacerbating, manifesting various impacts on the physiological and ecological traits of plants. This study initially established physiological models of photosynthesis in C&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; and C&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt; plants based on the stomatal action, atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; transport process, and physiological process of photosynthesis. Additionally, we measured the photosynthetic physiological parameters for two typical C&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; and C&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt; plants, Phragmites communis and Sporobolus alterniflorus, using a photosynthesizer to estimate the model parameters. Experimental and simulation results revealed that the stomatal conductance of C&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; plants was increasingly influenced by rising temperature and CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; concentration, with the optimal range being 25 °C to 30 °C, and stomatal closure observed at elevated temperatures. C&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt; plants demonstrate a more adaptable mechanism in regulating stomatal conductance, leveraging their CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; concentrating mechanism to sustain lower levels of stomatal conductance, thereby enhancing water use efficiency and facilitating better adaptation to high-temperature stress on stomata. Moreover, the intercellular CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; concentration of both C&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; and C&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt; plants was influenced by stomatal conductance and atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; concentration, exhibiting distinct trends under varying conditions. Simulations of photosynthesis in C&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; and C&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt; plants indicated that C&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt; plants were adept at coping with high temperatures and low CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; concentrations, whereas C&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; plants exhibited limited adaptation to high temperatures but experienced benefits from increased CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; concentrations. The simulations demonstrated that temperature fluctuations exert a comparatively greater influence on plant physiological traits. If temperatures escalate beyond a certain threshold, the benefit of elevated CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; concentrations for C&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; plants may diminish. Consequently, C&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt; plants can sustain a higher net photosynthetic rate by employing their mechanisms to mitigate the stress induced by high temperatures. Against the backdrop of global environmental change, atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; concentrations and temperature invariably increase synergistically. Based on current trends, C&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; plants are poised to maintain an advantage in cold regions at high latitudes for the foreseeable future, while C&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt; plants are likely to thrive in hot areas at low latitudes. However, in mid-latitude regions, the relative advantage of the simultaneous increase in temperature and CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; concentration for either C&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; or C&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt; plants is influenced by factors such as the local ambient temperature, the magnitude of CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"495 ","pages":"Article 110805"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141882654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Computational assessment of Amazon forest plots regrowth capacity under strong spatial variability for simulating logging scenarios","authors":"Gilles Ardourel ,&nbsp;Guillaume Cantin ,&nbsp;Benoît Delahaye ,&nbsp;Géraldine Derroire ,&nbsp;Beatriz M. Funatsu ,&nbsp;David Julien","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110812","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110812","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this paper, we assess the regrowth capacity of tropical forest plots by developing an original computational procedure based on statistical model checking methods. We calibrate a new mathematical model of forest dynamics with respect to post-logging data, produced in the Amazon basin. Our mathematical model is determined by a mechanistic system of ordinary differential equations and integrates a new nonlinear aging term, which is necessary to reproduce the complex post-logging dynamics of the tropical forest plots. Our method is based on an efficient algorithmic procedure that explores the parameter space of the model and computes a score for each parameter value, depending on the distance between the trajectory of the model and the data. We distinguish a group of four reference plots, for which the logging was the most intense, from another group of five non-reference plots, which are fitted <em>a posteriori</em>. Our results provide a set trajectories of the new model, which successfully fit the non-monotone post-logging data on each forest plot, in spite of the high level of biological variability identified in the study site. Rather than a unique set of parameters, we return a small cell of parameters, extracted from the parameter space, which contains in its close vicinity several relevant sets of parameters that are equally able to reproduce the regrowth dynamics of distinct tropical forest plots. The size of the cells that should be extracted from the parameter space increases with the level of biological variability. Finally, we show how to use the calibrated mathematical model for simulating logging scenarios, so as to better understand the temporal dynamics of forest regrowth.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"495 ","pages":"Article 110812"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141882650","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Individual-based modelling of adaptive physiological traits of cyanobacteria: Responses to light history","authors":"Mohammad Hassan Ranjbar ,&nbsp;David P. Hamilton ,&nbsp;Michael L. Pace ,&nbsp;Amir Etemad-Shahidi ,&nbsp;Cayelan C. Carey ,&nbsp;Fernanda Helfer","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110803","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110803","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Adaptive physiological traits of cyanobacteria allow plasticity of responses to environmental change at multiple time scales. Most conventional phytoplankton models only simulate responses to current conditions without incorporating antecedent environmental history and adaptive physiological traits, thereby potentially missing mechanisms that influence dynamics. We developed an individual-based model (IBM) that incorporates information on light exposure history and cell physiology coupled with a hydrodynamic model that simulates mixing and transport. The combined model successfully simulated cyanobacterial growth and respiration in a whole-lake nutrient enrichment experiment in a temperate lake (Peter Lake, Michigan, USA). The model also incorporates non-photochemical quenching (NPQ) to improve simulations of cyanobacteria biomass based on validation against cyanobacteria cell counts and chlorophyll concentration. The IBM demonstrated that physical processes (stratification and mixing) significantly affect the dynamics of NPQ in cyanobacteria. Cyanobacteria had high fluorescence quenching and long photo-physiological relaxation periods during stratification, and low quenching and rapid relaxation in response to low light exposure history as the mixing layer deepened. This work demonstrates that coupling adaptive physiological trait with physical mixing into models can improve our understanding and enhance predictions of bloom occurrences in response to environmental changes.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"495 ","pages":"Article 110803"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380024001911/pdfft?md5=6a6c7bfa72b1a65cfa1c83a7974a0955&pid=1-s2.0-S0304380024001911-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141882556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Using GIS-based multicriteria decision analysis to prioritize invasive plant treatment: A creative solution for a pernicious problem","authors":"Joshua G. Cohen,&nbsp;Helen D. Enander,&nbsp;Tyler J. Bassett,&nbsp;Clay M. Wilton,&nbsp;Ashley A. Cole-Wick","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110807","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110807","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Invasive plant infestations are projected to rapidly increase with continued habitat fragmentation and climate change. The rate of spread often outpaces land managers’ ability to effectively detect and control infestations. Land stewards need tools that can match the rapid pace and scale of invasive infestations and help prioritize control efforts in the most ecologically important areas and optimize resource allocation. It is imperative that proposed control be informed by the best available ecological information. We present a spatially explicit modeling framework for prioritizing invasive plant treatment. In our case study from Michigan, we employ a multicriteria decision analysis model that synthesizes four critical factors for prioritizing invasive plant stewardship: integrity, biodiversity, resilience, and ecosystem services. Data for quantifying these factors were compiled from several state, federal, university, and non-governmental data sources. The model uses a geographic information system (GIS) to identify places that are impacted by invasive plant infestations that threaten to degrade ecosystem composition, structure, and function; are characterized by high ecosystem integrity; support high biodiversity; are resilient to disturbance; and provide ecosystem services. While specific to Michigan, our modeling framework is broadly applicable. This type of integrated analysis can help inform decisions about allocation of limited resources for numerous biodiversity stewardship and landscape-level conservation planning needs, regardless of geographic location.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"495 ","pages":"Article 110807"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380024001959/pdfft?md5=52349d4afc37fe9543e0fae829a89b9a&pid=1-s2.0-S0304380024001959-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141780338","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Simulating fish passage impacts on a fragmented metapopulation of Paddlefish","authors":"Henry J. Hershey ,&nbsp;Russell R. Wright ,&nbsp;Todd M. Swannack ,&nbsp;Dennis R. DeVries","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110806","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110806","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The persistence of fish population segments that are isolated by dams may be directly related to passage rates (both upstream and downstream) across the dams that isolate them. In anticipation of proposed bypass structures at two dams currently fragmenting the Alabama River, we programmed an individual-based model (Alabama River Paddlefish Passage Model; ARPPAM) to simulate the effects of increasing connectivity between population segments of a migratory fish species on the likelihood of segment extirpation within 100 years. We designed six different realistic passage efficiency scenarios to account for uncertainty in the ultimate efficacy of the bypass structures, and to test the effect of increasing segment connectivity (fish passage) on the overall metapopulation. We used the Paddlefish <em>Polyodon spathula</em> as our model species and programmed detailed life history information and movement dynamics according to measured quantities (although several demographic and movement rates for the metapopulation were uncertain or unknown). We used a simulation to see how a range of values would affect our inference about the influence of increased connectivity. Higher juvenile entrainment probability and associated mortality increased the probability of segment extirpation. These effects were lessened by increasing segment connectivity. Our model has broad applicability and provides a flexible framework to test a variety of hypotheses about metapopulation dynamics of potamodromous species in fragmented systems globally. Furthermore, fish passage facilities are costly, so modeling population consequences at early stages of development can save money and help formulate criteria for their design.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"495 ","pages":"Article 110806"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141780262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}