Ecological Modelling最新文献

{"title":"Interactive effects of climate change and human mobility on dengue transmission","authors":"Mohsin Khan ,&nbsp;Tarteel Abdalgader ,&nbsp;Michael Pedersen ,&nbsp;Lai Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110924","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110924","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The global escalation of vector-borne epidemics, particularly flaviviruses like dengue fever, presents a growing challenge. Contributing factors such as climate change and increased human mobility have expanded the vulnerability to dengue fever worldwide, yet the underlying mechanisms remain elusive. In this paper, we extend a two-patch dengue transmission model by incorporating the aquatic stage of mosquitoes and integrating the movement of host individuals between patches via a residence-time matrix. Through this approach, we derive the basic reproduction number and directly link it to climate change and human mobility. Our findings reveal bidirectional impacts of human mobility on dengue transmission: an increase in mobility from climatically unsuitable to suitable patches heightens the basic reproduction number, while the reverse pattern diminishes it. Moreover, an asymmetric mobility rate proves potentially more conducive to dengue spread than a symmetric pattern. When coupled with climate changes, asymmetric human mobility further exacerbates dengue fever transmission. These insights offer novel perspectives on the role of human mobility in dengue transmission dynamics and inform intervention strategies, particularly in urban settings where dengue epidemics are driven by human mobility.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"499 ","pages":"Article 110924"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142572664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"When does artificial intelligence replace process-based models in ecological modelling?","authors":"Georgii A. Alexandrov","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110923","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110923","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sixteen years ago, Sven Jørgensen, a founder of Ecological Modelling, wrote that artificial neural networks could be very useful in most cases but cannot replace biogeochemical models based on conservation principles. The literature study shows no sign that artificial neural networks are replacing any process-based models in ecological modelling, although the recent efforts in developing the methods for solving differential equations by using neural networks enable turning the process-based models into neural networks without loss of their theoretical rigor. It seems that a well-orchestrated research program is needed to promote turning existing process-based models into neural networks aimed at taking advantage of opportunities offered by the big data revolution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"499 ","pages":"Article 110923"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142572665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling the effects of phenological mismatch in tick questing and host demographic turnover on Lyme disease hazard","authors":"Asena Goren ,&nbsp;Atle Mysterud ,&nbsp;Yngvild Vindenes","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110910","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110910","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change is altering the seasonal abundance and activity patterns of ecologically interacting species. It is not yet known how changes in phenological alignment between ticks and their hosts will impact tick feeding, survival, and the timing and probability of pathogen transmission during feeding. It has been observed that the seasonal timing of human Lyme disease cases has shifted earlier, accompanying an increased incidence, which may reflect changes in tick questing phenology. We present a mathematical model framework for exploring the seasonal dynamics of a tick-borne pathogen. The model extends a recently developed seasonal population matrix model for ixodid ticks feeding on a small and a large host, to i) incorporate the transmission of a pathogen, based on the causative agent of Lyme disease, <em>Borrelia burgdorferi</em> sensu lato, between ticks and a reservoir-competent small mammal host, and ii) include seasonal demographic turnover in the small mammal host. Through modification of model parameters, we explored the effects of alternative scenarios for tick questing phenology, tick host selection, and seasonality of host reproduction on disease dynamics. Our model predicts that due to differences in their life history, seasonal infection prevalence is much more variable in the small mammalian host than in the tick vector. The rapid pace of host demographic turnover is important for clearing infection in the small mammal population. The alignment between the seasonal timing of host reproduction and tick questing phenology is a critical feature in the model, as it determines pathogen transmission and infection prevalence in host and vector populations. The model predicts that increased asynchrony between larval tick feeding and small host reproduction can increase the number of infected questing nymphs, a common metric for Lyme disease hazard. When larval tick feeding is misaligned with small host reproduction, the larvae feed predominantly on older hosts, which are more likely to be infected. Our model presents an adaptable framework for exploring seasonal relationships between pathogen dynamics, host demography, and vector life history traits in an emergent tick-borne disease system.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"498 ","pages":"Article 110910"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142533163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"High-resolution spatiotemporal forecasting of the European crane migration","authors":"K. De Koning ,&nbsp;L. Nilsson ,&nbsp;J. Månsson ,&nbsp;O. Ovaskainen ,&nbsp;B. Kranstauber ,&nbsp;M. Arp ,&nbsp;J.K. Schakel","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110884","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110884","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper we present three different models to forecast bird migration. They are species-specific individual-based models that operate on a high spatiotemporal resolution (kilometres, 15 min-hours), as an addition to radar-based migration forecast models that currently exist. The models vary in complexity, and use GPS-tracked location, flying direction and speed, and/or wind data to forecast migration speed and direction. Our aim is to quantitatively evaluate the forecasting performance and assess which metrics improve forecasts at different ranges. We test the models through cross-validation using GPS tracks of common cranes during spring and autumn migration. Our results show that recordings of flight speed and direction improve the accuracy of forecasts on the short range (&lt;2 h). Adding wind data at flight altitude results in consistent improvements of the forecasts across the entire range, particularly in the predicted speed. Direction forecasts are less affected by adding wind data because cranes mostly compensate for wind drift during migration. Migration in spring is more difficult to forecast than in autumn, resulting in larger errors in flight speed and direction during spring. We further find that a combination of flight behaviours – thermal soaring, gliding, and flapping – complicates the forecasts by inducing variance in flight speed and direction. Fitting those behaviours into flight optimisation models proves to be challenging, and even results in significant biases in speed forecasts in spring. We conclude that flight speed is the most difficult parameter to forecast, whereas flight direction is the most critical for practical applications of these models. Such applications could e.g., be prevention of bird strikes in aviation or with wind turbines, and public engagement with bird migration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"498 ","pages":"Article 110884"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142533164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How root-grafted trees form networks: Modeling network dynamics with pyNET","authors":"Marie-Christin Wimmler,&nbsp;Uta Berger","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110916","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110916","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Natural root grafting is a widespread phenomenon in woody plants. While previous studies have focused on the effects of reduced growth and resource exchange at the individual level, we lack an understanding of the collective behavior of groups of grafted trees and the networks they form. Here, we present pyNET, a mechanistic agent-based model designed to explore the emergence of root graft networks. We performed simulation experiments with different scenarios involving water scarcity and different cost-benefit dynamics. Costs denote the resources required to form root grafts, while benefits denote the water redistributed among trees. Our model successfully replicates observed patterns linking structural variables to network characteristics. Specifically, we were able to reproduce observed characteristics such as grafting frequency and mean group size. In particular, we find that while the network structure is naturally strongly influenced by the size of the root system, the time and resources allocated to grafting are also critical factors. pyNET serves as a valuable tool for exploring the formation of root grafting networks under diverse environmental conditions and understanding their impact on resource competition. Our study supports theory development on the subject and hopefully stimulates further empirical studies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"498 ","pages":"Article 110916"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142533162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Corrigendum to “Spatial mechanistic modelling to simulate movements and contacts between wildlife and livestock in Southern Africa” [ecological modelling 498 (2024) /110863]","authors":"Florent Rumiano ,&nbsp;Eve Miguel ,&nbsp;Victor Dufleit ,&nbsp;Pascal Degenne ,&nbsp;Cedric Gaucherel ,&nbsp;Hugo Valls-Fox ,&nbsp;Michel de Garine-Wichatitsky ,&nbsp;Edson Gandiwa ,&nbsp;Alexandre Caron ,&nbsp;Annelise Tran","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110902","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110902","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"498 ","pages":"Article 110902"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142592688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The economic impacts of living habitat changes in the Virginia Middle Peninsula, Chesapeake Bay","authors":"Matthew S. Woodstock ,&nbsp;Amanda T. Bevans ,&nbsp;Muhammad Sulyman ,&nbsp;James Maples ,&nbsp;Scott Knoche ,&nbsp;Thomas F. Ihde","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110914","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110914","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Living habitats support ecologically and commercially important species but are threatened by anthropogenic stressors, including climate change. The populations of two living habitats in the Chesapeake Bay, Eastern Oyster (<em>Crassostrea virginica</em>) and Eelgrass (<em>Zostera marina</em>), are depleted compared to historical levels, but recent Oyster restoration efforts have created new reef habitat and enhanced existing Oyster reefs. Other animals (e.g., commercially important fish and invertebrates) consume organisms that associate with these living habitats, suggesting the regional economies that rely on the commercial fishing industry may be impacted by changes in living habitat coverage. Ecosystem models were developed for two rivers that have undergone Oyster restoration in the Virginia Middle Peninsula, and simulations were conducted to estimate the potential influence that changes to living habitats may have on commercial fisheries harvests. Additionally, commercial fishers were interviewed to document expenditures needed to link ecological model estimates to an economic input-output model via IMPLAN that estimated the regional economic impacts of these changes. Increases to Oyster and Eelgrass populations are predicted to enhance commercial fisheries populations and in turn, harvests, while decreases to living habitats are predicted to have negative effect on fisheries harvests. The driving factor behind landed value trends is changes with the lucrative Blue Crab (<em>Callinectes sapidus</em>) fishery. The primary expenses of watermen are repairs/maintenance, fuel, and bait, but greater than 37 % of the annual revenue is retained as proprietor and crew income. Oyster reef restoration alone is predicted to increase the regional economic impact of the commercial fishing industry by $1.1 M yr^-1 and support 12 more full-time jobs at the end of a 20-year simulation. Oyster restoration in combination with a continued decline of Eelgrass led to a negligible increase (∼$150 K yr^-1) in the regional economic impact. Eelgrass restoration to the current management goal without the influence of Oyster restoration is anticipated to elevate the regional economic impact to $16.8 M yr^-1 and 152 full-time jobs, and smaller increases to the Eelgrass population, relative to current levels, will still have a positive impact on the regional economy. Combined Oyster and Eelgrass restoration are predicted to enhance economic impacts to the greatest extent, while continued Eelgrass decline is likely to minimize these benefits.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"498 ","pages":"Article 110914"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142446653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Variations on the maximum density-size lines to climate and site factors for Larix spp. plantations in northeast China","authors":"Lingbo Dong ,&nbsp;Guanmou Chen ,&nbsp;Woodam Chung ,&nbsp;Zhaogang Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110913","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110913","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The maximum density-size line (MDSL) is a valuable tool in sustainable forest management, as it shows the relationship between site occupancy measures and mean tree size on a log-log scale. However, the responses of MDSLs to different climate and site variables still need to be clarified. Thus, this study aimed to assess the potential effects of various climate- and site-related factors on the slopes and intercepts of MDSLs for <em>Larix</em> spp. plantations in northeast China. The parameters of MDSLs were estimated using stochastic frontier regression (SFR) with three different error distribution assumptions, namely half-normal distribution (HN), exponential distribution (ED), and truncated-normal distribution (TN). Spatial distributions of maximum stand density index (<em>SDI_max</em>) were mapped under different climate scenarios (RCP 8.5, RCP 4.5, and RCP2.6). The results revealed that the slopes on MDSLs without covariates were significantly shallower than Reineke's slope (−1.605), ranging from −1.2485 to −1.2026. Of the 22 covariates considered, 13 variables on SFR-HN and SFR-TN and 16 variables on SFR-ED had significant influences on MDSLs. The optimal MDSL model, including mean annual temperature (MAT) and soil pH as covariates using a HN assumption, decreased the Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) by approximately 7.76%. The results also indicated that increasing MAT significantly reduced the maximum stand density for stands with a natural logarithm of quadratic mean diameter [ln(QMD)] below 2.6, while consistent increases were observed over the entire ln(QMD) range for soil pH. Moreover, the mean <em>SDI_max</em> within the whole region increased significantly from 15.04% under RCP4.5 to 27.78% under RCP8.5. These findings emphasize the significant influences of climate and site conditions on the MDSL, thereby calibrating on traditional density management strategies may contribute significantly on carbon sequestration capacity of forests in the face of climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"498 ","pages":"Article 110913"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142441642","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A new cellular automata framework of urban growth modeling by incorporating land use policies and economic development zone planning","authors":"Haoran Zeng ,&nbsp;Haijun Wang ,&nbsp;Bin Zhang ,&nbsp;Youcheng Song ,&nbsp;Xiaoxu Cao ,&nbsp;Qiyuan Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110908","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110908","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The development of cities is frequently influenced by policies and planning. One of the significant challenges in urban cellular automata (CA) modeling research is accurately quantifying these influences in order to incorporate them reasonably into models. This study proposes a novel urban CA framework that incorporates three key elements: (1) Utilizing the results of dual evaluation of territorial space as the development suitability within the CA model, (2) Integrating the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and affinity propagation (AP) clustering algorithm with the CA model, combined with the delineation of economic development zones, to achieve synchronous simulation of multimodal urban growth, (3) Conducting multi-scenario predictions in conjunction with farmland and ecological protection policies to identify the degree of coordination and conflict areas among various policies. The framework assesses the influence of land use policies and economic development zone planning on prospective urban growth. It is capable of simulating enclave-style growth urban growth, thereby extending its utility in practical applications. Taking Wuhan as a case study, we employ the proposed CA framework to forecast the urban spatial pattern in 2035. This can provide a scientific basis for the formulation and improvement of future policies and planning in Wuhan, thereby contributing to informed decision-making and sustainable urban development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"498 ","pages":"Article 110908"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142441641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Towards a liana plant functional type for vegetation models","authors":"Hans Verbeeck ,&nbsp;Hannes P.T. De Deurwaerder ,&nbsp;Elizabeth Kearsley ,&nbsp;Sruthi M.Krishna Moorthy ,&nbsp;Francis Mumbanza Mundondo ,&nbsp;Kasper Coppieters ,&nbsp;Stefan A. Schnitzer ,&nbsp;Marcos Longo ,&nbsp;Marc Peaucelle ,&nbsp;Marijn Bauters ,&nbsp;Félicien Meunier","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110901","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110901","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Lianas (woody climbers) are crucial components of tropical forests and they have been increasingly recognized to have profound effects on tropical forest carbon dynamics. Despite their importance, lianas' representation in vegetation models remains limited, partly due to the complexity of liana-tree dynamics and the diversity in liana life history strategies. This paper provides a comprehensive review of advances and challenges for mechanistically representing lianas in forest ecosystem models and a proposed path towards effectively representing lianas in these models.</div><div>Defining a liana plant functional type is a significant challenge because of the high morphological and physiological diversity amongst liana species, and because of their structural association with trees. Here, we identify critical liana traits that likely should contribute to establishing a liana plant functional type, along with key processes to properly represent lianas in ecosystem models. Subsequently, we discuss a variety of possible liana implementation strategies with their associated strengths, limitations, computational costs and data requirements. A fundamental redesign of the tree-centric demographic vegetation models seems appropriate to accommodate the unique growth and competition strategies of lianas. We illustrate the potential of such models with a single-site case study where we disentangle putative mechanisms of liana increasing abundance. Furthermore, we underscore the critical need for comprehensive liana demographic and functional data (including long-term, physiological, and pantropical observations) for the qualitative implementation and evaluation in the proposed modeling efforts. Currently, there is a scarcity of liana data and the data that do exist have a neotropical bias. We finally introduce a new liana functional trait database that can centralize existing liana trait data, incentivize improved data gathering and thus facilitate model development and scientific analyses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"498 ","pages":"Article 110901"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142433067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}