Ecological Modelling最新文献

{"title":"Uneven future greening across the northern high latitudes: Regional responses to rising CO2","authors":"Katherine Power","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111193","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111193","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With polar amplification warming the northern high latitudes at an unprecedented rate, understanding the future dynamics of vegetation and the associated carbon-nitrogen cycle is increasingly critical. This study uses the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS 4.1 to simulate vegetation changes for a future climate scenario, generated by the EC-Earth3.3.1 Earth System model, with the forcing of a 560 ppm CO₂ level. Using climate output from an earth system model without coupled dynamic vegetation, to run a higher resolution dynamic vegetation standalone model, allows for a more in depth exploration of vegetation changes. Plus, with this approach, the drivers of high latitude vegetation changes are isolated, but there is still a complete understanding of the climate system and the feedback mechanisms that contributed to it. Our simulations reveal an uneven greening response. The already vegetated Southern Scandinavia and western Russia undergo a shift in species composition as boreal species decline and temperate species expand. This is accompanied by a shift to a carbon sink, despite higher litterfall, root turnover and soil respiration rates, suggesting productivity increases are outpacing decomposition. The previously barren or marginal landscapes of Siberia and interior Alaska/Western Canada, undergo significant vegetation expansion, transitioning towards more stable, forested systems with enhanced carbon uptake. Yet, in the previously sparsely vegetated northern Scandinavia, under elevated CO₂ temperate species quickly establish, bypassing the expected boreal progression due to surpassed climate thresholds. Here, despite rising productivity, there is a shift to a carbon source. The deeply frozen soils in central Siberia resist colonisation, underscoring the role of continuous permafrost in buffering ecological change. Together, these results highlight that CO₂ induced greening does not always equate to enhanced carbon sequestration. The interplay of warming, nutrient constraints, permafrost dynamics and disturbance regimes creates divergent ecosystem trajectories across the northern high latitudes. These findings illustrate a strong need for regional differentiation in climate projections and carbon budget assessments, as the Arctic’s role as a carbon sink may be more heterogeneous and vulnerable than previously assumed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"508 ","pages":"Article 111193"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144366241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Symbiotic evolution in regional green innovation ecosystems: A Lotka-Volterra model analysis of China's provincial","authors":"Qinwen Deng ,&nbsp;Yue Long","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111244","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111244","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The development of the regional green innovation ecosystem (RGIE) can boost the global economy and mitigate environmental risks. However, RGIE exhibits significant heterogeneity in actor interactions, resource allocation, and evolutionary pathways. This study integrates symbiosis theory to construct a tripartite RGIE framework involving the government (GOV), enterprises (ENT), and academic institutions (ACD), and applies the Lotka-Volterra model to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the symbiotic relationships of RGIE in 30 provinces in China. The findings reveal that: (1) The symbiotic relationships primarily present three patterns: mutualism, parasitism, and competition. GOV-ENT primarily exhibits mutualistic symbiosis, GOV-ACD primarily shows parasitism, and ENT-ACD predominantly demonstrates competitive symbiosis. (2) Mutualistic symbiosis can maximize the development of t RGIE, while parasitic and competitive symbioses may lead to system instability or insufficient innovation drive. (3) Regional resource endowments and institutional environments shape the symbiotic paths. Coastal areas are more likely to achieve mutualistic equilibrium due to market-based coordination, whereas central and western regions are trapped in parasitic lock-ins due to resource misallocation. Based on these findings, differentiated policy tools are proposed: implementing green patent revenue feedback mechanisms in mutually beneficial regions, promoting green performance-based agreements in parasitic regions, and designing resource quota trading markets in competitive regions. This study provides empirical support for the government in formulating precise green innovation policies through the interdisciplinary integration of ecological models and policy design, and offers insights for the global optimization of green innovation ecosystems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"508 ","pages":"Article 111244"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144338822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Lotka-Volterra at 100: How predator-prey modeling became a universal framework","authors":"Hugo Fort","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111237","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111237","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"508 ","pages":"Article 111237"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144338824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Enhanced aboveground biomass density estimation in Central Vietnamese forests","authors":"Viet Hoang Ho ,&nbsp;Hidenori Morita ,&nbsp;Felix Bachofer ,&nbsp;Thanh Ha Ho","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111242","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111242","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate estimation of spatially explicit forest aboveground biomass density (AGBD) is essential for supporting climate change mitigation strategies. Recent studies have demonstrated the predictive effectiveness of the random forest (RF) algorithm in forest AGBD estimation utilizing multi-source remote sensing (RS) data. However, the RF-based estimates may be further enhanced by integrating RF with kriging techniques that account for spatial autocorrelation in model residuals. Therefore, we investigated the performance of random forest ordinary kriging (RFOK) and random forest co-kriging (RFCK) for estimating AGBD in Central Vietnamese forests using Advanced Land Observing Satellite-2 Phased Array L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar-2 (ALOS-2 PALSAR-2), Sentinel-1 (S1), and Sentinel-2 (S2) imageries. 277 predictors, including spectral bands, radar backscatter coefficients, vegetation indices, biophysical variables, and texture metrics, were derived from these RS datasets and statistically linked to field measurements from 104 geo-referenced forest inventory plots. The results showed that textures, modified chlorophyll absorption ratio index (MCARI), and radar backscatters were key contributors to AGBD variability. The fusion of ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 and S2 data yielded the highest RF performance, with coefficient of determination (R²), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) achieving 0.75, 39.15 t.ha^-1, and 32.20 t.ha^-1, respectively. Incorporating interpolated residuals by ordinary kriging and co-kriging into RF predictions enhanced estimation accuracy, with relative improvements of 5.74–7.04 % in R², 8.73–10.91 % in RMSE, and 13.62–15.27 % in MAE, yet these gains remained limited. Although RFOK achieved marginally better accuracy (R² = 0.80, RMSE = 34.88 t.ha^-1, MAE = 27.28 t.ha^-1) compared to RFCK (R² = 0.79, RMSE = 35.73 t.ha^-1, MAE = 27.81 t.ha^-1), the latter reduced estimation bias more effectively, likely due to the inclusion of elevation as a covariate in the co-kriging process. These findings underscore the potential of the hybrid RF-kriging frameworks for improving spatial AGBD estimation, offering a robust approach for carbon accounting in tropical ecosystems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"508 ","pages":"Article 111242"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144338823","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effect of adaptive migration with interaction intensity on the evolution of cooperation","authors":"Shiru Qiang ,&nbsp;Hui Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111223","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111223","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Migration (mobility) is a common natural phenomenon and a fundamental element in understanding population dynamics. Adaptive migration (Jiang et al., 2010) has been proposed as an important and efficient mechanism for the evolution of cooperation. In this paper, we focus on the effect of the adaptive migration on the evolution of cooperation by introducing interaction intensity, defined as a probability of the individual’s willingness to interact with an opponent. Our investigations are based on two game models, the Prisoner’s Dilemma game (PDG) and the Snowdrift game (SG). Our results indicate that this modified adaptive migration is much more advantageous for the evolution of cooperation over a larger range of the fraction of empty sites compared to the original adaptive migration mechanism. In moderately sparse populations, the evolution of cooperation can be facilitated through migration. Under this modified adaptive migration, cooperation thrives regardless of the type of game when sensitivity of the stimulus is high. Furthermore, compared to the PDG, the evolution of cooperation in the SG requires lower sensitivity. Finally, in both the PDG and the SG, this modified adaptive migration can induce an outbreak of cooperation in a defector-dominated environment. This reveals that under more efficient resource utilization – here meaning a low fraction of empty sites – modest migration encourages tighter connections between cooperators, which is more conducive to the evolution of cooperation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"508 ","pages":"Article 111223"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144330677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ecological resilience in China's ten urban agglomerations: evolution and influence under the background of carbon neutrality","authors":"Xiao Ouyang ,&nbsp;Jian Chen ,&nbsp;Xiao Wei ,&nbsp;Jiayu Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111226","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111226","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Amid global carbon neutrality initiatives, the dynamic interplay between urban decarbonization and ecological resilience remains underexplored, particularly in China’s urban agglomerations where balancing emission reduction and ecosystem stability poses critical challenges. Elucidating how anthropogenic and natural drivers interactively shape ecological resilience under carbon-neutral constraints has emerged as a pivotal scientific frontier for achieving sustainable coexistence between human and natural systems. Therefore, we constructed carbon neutrality index (CNI) and ecological resilience index (ERI) to evaluate the carbon neutrality and ecological resilience of urban agglomeration in China from 2000 to 2020. Using restricted cubic spline analysis to identify the nonlinear thresholds of influence factors, results showed that: (1) Both indices showed positive trends, with CNI increasing from 5.03 to 11.88 and ERI from 0.41 to 0.49, displaying spatial patterns of center-to-periphery gradient. (2) Both anthropogenic and natural factors demonstrated nonlinear impacts on ERI with specific thresholds identified for key variables including CNI (10.75), population density (12,151 individuals), GDP (209,400 CNY), and various environmental parameters. (3) We identified 21,262 km² of maximum potential priority areas requiring ecological restoration. These findings provide scientific guidance for targeted protection and restoration efforts to support sustainable urban agglomeration development within territorial spatial planning frameworks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"508 ","pages":"Article 111226"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144330676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrating the theory of planned behavior in agent-based models: A systematic review of applications of pro-environmental behaviors","authors":"Mahdi Taraghi,&nbsp;Landon Yoder","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111231","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111231","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper systematically reviews how agent-based models apply the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) to simulate pro-environmental behaviors across diverse domains, including environmental conservation, water management, agriculture and energy. We reviewed 36 studies to examine how researchers operationalize TPB, incorporate empirical data, and follow best practices for transparency and replicability. Given the static and abstract nature of TPB, modelers have employed diverse mechanisms to operationalize it in agent-based models, using external and internal control variables as intermediary proxies alongside social network structures. Moreover, nearly half of the reviewed studies either incorporated an extended version of TPB in their models or integrated TPB with other behavioral models, showing its flexibility to be integrated with other behavioral models. While 47% of the case study-based research obtained TPB data from self-developed quantitative surveys to inform their agent-based models, only a small subset of these surveys adhered to the principle of compatibility—a key prerequisite for the predictive validity of the TPB. Also, despite growing efforts to promote transparency and replicability through practices such as employing the ODD protocol for model descriptions and sharing code, only 19% of studies shared both their protocol documentation and models, highlighting the need for further progress to fully achieve these objectives. To mitigate ambiguities and enhance consistency in translating TPB constructs into computational representations, we advocate for development of reusable building blocks as a way to establish community standards. Furthermore, stronger collaboration between modelers and social scientists is essential for designing theory-driven surveys that accurately inform agent behavior.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"508 ","pages":"Article 111231"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144336038","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Invaders’ trophic position and their direct and indirect relationship influence on resident food webs","authors":"Ágnes Móréh,&nbsp;István Scheuring","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111238","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111238","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Many ecosystems are undergoing simultaneous colonization and spread of multiple alien species. Invaders often negatively affect communities by reducing population sizes of resident species or even decreasing community diversity through extinctions. Direct and indirect interactions between them can amplify or mitigate their impacts on native communities. In this study, we compare the effects of two invaders on the resident model food webs under two scenarios: separate versus simultaneous invasion.</div><div>We examined the resident food webs’ response from two perspectives: the number of extinct species as a measure of diversity loss, and the net change in total biomass of the food web. Using dynamic simulations based on the <em>Allometric Bioenergetic Model</em>, we tracked these changes <em>in silico</em> and compared the results of the two scenarios. We examined how the invaders’ relative trophic positions and their direct/indirect interactions influence the additive or non-additive nature of the outcomes of their co-invasion.</div><div>Our results have corroborated previous field and experimental observations, showing that when co-occurring invaders occupy different trophic levels, their combined effects may be dampened if one invader preys on the other. Further, we have shown that the probability of synergistic effect increases when invaders form a trophic cascade or share a common predator. However, we have also shown that all these relationships are influenced by i) the metric used to track changes in the resident community, ii) the trophic level at which the invasion occurs, and iii) whether the invader has a predator (either resident or another invader).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"508 ","pages":"Article 111238"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144330678","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modelling the impacts of climate change and harvesting on carbon dynamics in representative subtropical secondary forests: A case study from Hunan Province, China","authors":"Longjun Wang ,&nbsp;Haoyun Liu ,&nbsp;Zelin Liu ,&nbsp;Tong Li ,&nbsp;Peng Li ,&nbsp;Ziying Zou ,&nbsp;Xiaolu Zhou ,&nbsp;Weifeng Wang ,&nbsp;Changhui Peng ,&nbsp;Wenhua Xiang ,&nbsp;Cong Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111240","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111240","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change and forest harvesting are key drivers of carbon dynamics in forest ecosystems. In this study, we applied the TRIPLEX-Management model to simulate the carbon sequestration potential of subtropical secondary forests in Hunan Province, China, from 2015 to 2060. The model was validated using data from 530 forest sample plots. Results confirm a good agreement between simulated NPP and observations (R<em>²</em>=0.73; <em>P&lt;</em>0.01). Simulations were further conducted under three climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585) and two harvesting strategies (whole-tree harvesting, WTH; and stem-only harvesting, SOH). Results showed that climate change enhanced both net primary productivity (NPP) and net ecosystem productivity (NEP). WTH generally led to higher cumulative NEP compared to no harvesting and SOH. Under the high-emission SSP585 scenario and with earlier harvesting (e.g., in 2030), the longer recovery period promoted greater NEP accumulation over the simulation period, resulting in the highest cumulative NEP. Our results suggest that combining WTH with early harvesting under projected climate change can maximize carbon sequestration. Overall, the interaction between climate change and harvesting determines the long-term carbon sink potential of subtropical secondary forests. These findings highlight that climate-smart forest management, adapted to different forest types and future climate scenarios, could significantly contribute to regional carbon neutrality goals by 2060.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"508 ","pages":"Article 111240"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144330675","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Corrigendum to “The return of the Caracal Caracal caracal: 56 years of population changes in Israel” [Ecological Modelling 508 (2025)/111197]","authors":"Ezra Hadad ,&nbsp;Jakub Z. Kosicki ,&nbsp;Reuven Yosef","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111230","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111230","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>“The authors would like to extend their heartfelt thanks to the Steinhardt Museum of Natural History, Tel Aviv University, for their contribution to the database.”</div><div>The authors would like to apologize for any inconvenience caused.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"508 ","pages":"Article 111230"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144330148","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}