Ecological Modelling最新文献

{"title":"Modeling rangelands as complex adaptive socio-ecological systems: An agent-based model of pyric herbivory","authors":"Hsiao-Hsuan Wang ,&nbsp;William E. Grant ,&nbsp;Andrew G. Birt ,&nbsp;Bradford P. Wilcox","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111020","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111020","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rangelands cover approximately one-third of the earth's land area, at least one billion people depend on these lands for their livelihoods, and most rangelands have been degraded by inappropriate land use practices. Overgrazing and suppression of fire have facilitated encroachment of woody plants in what formerly were more open grasslands. However, proper management of fire and grazing (pyric herbivory) can mitigate woody plant encroachment. Although the basic ecological dynamics of rangeland ecosystems are well known, the long-term effects on local vegetation dynamics of ranch-level management decisions, particularly those involving the use of prescribed fire to limit woody plant encroachment, are less well understood. As a proof of concept, we describe a spatially explicit agent-based model of pyric herbivory that integrates biophysical and managerial components to simulate shifts in canopy cover of woody plants, forage production, and cattle production resulting from ranch-level management decisions to adjust grazing pressure and prescribed fire regimes.</div><div>We followed the pattern-oriented modeling approach to evaluate the usefulness of our model in exploring the effects of different pyric herbivory management schemes on a hypothetical 4000-ha ranch in the semi-arid rangelands of the southern Great Plains of the USA. Model evaluation simulations generated the expected shifting landscape mosaics of woody plant canopy cover, forage biomass, and grazing pressure that typify pyric herbivory. The most noticeable trend emerging from model application simulations was the effect of the relative sensitivity of adaptive management rules to changing ranch conditions on the ecological condition (an index of potential forage productivity) of the ranch and on the sale weight of calves. At relatively lower stocking rates, there was a noticeable increase in both ecological condition and sale weight of calves as adaptive changes to stocking rates or burning thresholds decreased in sensitivity to changing ranch conditions. However, these trends were not noticeable at relatively higher stocking rates. These results, while ecologically interpretable, are not realistic within a real-world ranch management context and we do not intend for our model application simulations to serve as a basis for real-word management recommendations. Nonetheless, we suggest that these simulations provide a proof of concept regarding the usefulness of spatially explicit, agent-based models, which explicitly integrate biophysical and managerial system components, in exploring the management of pyric herbivory.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 111020"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143158997","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A new multitrophic model for olive tree, olive fly and fly predators to support risk management in operational contexts","authors":"Ermes Movedi ,&nbsp;Livia Paleari ,&nbsp;Sofia Tartarini ,&nbsp;Fosco M. Vesely ,&nbsp;Giacomo Facelli ,&nbsp;Francisco J. Villalobos ,&nbsp;Roberto Confalonieri","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111015","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111015","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The production of olive (<em>Olea europea</em>) oil – a boast within Mediterranean agriculture – is periodically threatened by the olive fruit fly (<em>Bactrocera oleae</em>). The limited effectiveness of classical strategies for control of olive fly populations and related damages requires new solutions to support both prevention (e.g., early warning systems) and risk transfer (e.g., index-based insurance products). Biophysical models have been used successfully to reach these goals for a variety of cropping systems, but not to reproduce the olive tree-olive fruit fly multitrophic dynamics in operational contexts. We have developed a new model simulating olive tree (including key abiotic stressors), olive fruit fly (including its predators), and their interactions, specifically targeting on-farm applications. We integrated existing algorithms for each species with newly developed equations to improve the formalization of key biophysical processes. Model behaviour was assessed through sensitivity analysis and its performance evaluated under a wide range of agro-climatic conditions, using data on both olive tree growth and fly infestation. To our knowledge, this is the first time a model including a detailed simulation of the physiology of both species has been tested against observed fly damage (percentage of fruits infected). The good agreement between model outputs and observations (mean absolute error of 0.65 t ha⁻¹, 0.87 t ha⁻¹, and 5.4 % for, olive tree aboveground biomass, fruit dry mass, and percentage of fruits attacked, respectively) ‒ together with the parsimony in terms of model inputs – encourage its use to support olive tree growers in controlling this key pest.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 111015"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159327","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On the evolution of dispersal strategies under the costs of acquisition of private and social information","authors":"Antoine Sion ,&nbsp;Matteo Marcantonio ,&nbsp;Stefano Masier ,&nbsp;Elio Tuci","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Dispersal between patches of suitable habitat is a key behaviour for the survival of animal populations and is impacted by rapid environmental changes. Animals must cope with several costs related to the dispersal process, such as expenses in energy to acquire information or increased mortality risks. There is a growing interest in studying how the costs of acquisition of information influence the dispersal behaviour of species, and particularly how the use of social and private information can shape this behaviour over multiple generations. Current models of dispersal rarely incorporate both sources of information, and there is a specific lack of modelling studies taking into account costs of acquisition for private and social information. We develop an agent-based model that simulates a population of butterflies with genetic factors linked to the acquisition of both types of information and their associated reproductive costs. We show that different costs, environmental variability conditions, and sensory abilities result in various dispersal behaviours and have an impact on the fitness of the population. In stable environments, a varying proportion of agents use low-cost information to disperse, but when the cost increases lightly, all agents remain uninformed. In highly variable environments, the same trend is observed, but agents rely on information even if the cost of acquisition increases up to twice compared to stable environments, as it provides an evolutionary advantage. Agents with a limited perceptual range use both information sources equally in variable environments, and those with a bigger perceptual range rely exclusively on private information to make dispersal decisions, except at free cost of acquisition. Globally, the use of information induces a higher fitness for the population in stable environments if the costs of acquisition are free or very low. In variable environmental conditions, the highest fitness is maintained with a limited perceptual range when the total cost rises to twice the value found for stable environments. With a bigger perceptual range, the highest fitness is maintained for the whole range of total costs studied.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 111004"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Retraction Notice to “Simulating fish passage impacts on a fragmented metapopulation of Paddlefish” [Ecological Modelling 495 (2024) 110806]","authors":"Henry J. Hershey ,&nbsp;Russell R. Wright ,&nbsp;Todd M. Swannack ,&nbsp;Dennis R. DeVries","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111031","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111031","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 111031"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143386584","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ecological network analysis for urban physical-virtual water cycle: A case study of Beijing","authors":"Qingnan Cai ,&nbsp;Delin Fang ,&nbsp;Bin Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110972","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110972","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Growing water demands have increasingly challenged the urban water cycle resilience. In contrast to conventional evaluations, which concentrate primarily on the physical water cycle, this study presents a methodological framework considering both physical and virtual components and chooses Beijing as a case study. We constructed an urban physical-virtual water cycle (PVWC) network model to investigate water cycle resilience through structural and functional analysis based on ecological network analysis (ENA). The PVWC model covers multiple water suppliers (surface water, groundwater, transferred water, and reclaimed water), multiple water users (production water use, domestic water use, and ecological water use), water leakage, and wastewater treatment, as well as physical links and virtual flows driven by trade among these nodes. This study analyzed the system's robustness and the contributions of individual components to overall resilience from structural dimension, as well as revealed dominant sectors and interrelationships between components that sustain the system's resilience from functional dimension. The case study of Beijing in 2017 demonstrates that its network is moderately robust and synergistic. The external water transfer subsystem mainly has more remarkable mutualistic pair-wise relationships with secondary industry, tertiary industry, and household consumption. Moreover, water distribution subsystem is the dominant controller of PVWC, while the through flows of water leakage and wastewater treatment rely on the operation of whole system. The ecological environment, which has strong connections with reclaimed water and ecological water flows, played an important role in the entire system promoting more mutualistic relationships. We found that increasing the proportions of transferred water and reclaimed water supply and promoting mutualistic interactions between water users are critical to improving urban water cycle resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110972"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143158598","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sampling effort required for fitting spatially explicit models of species distribution dynamics","authors":"Oriol Solà ,&nbsp;Marc Kéry ,&nbsp;Núria Aquilué ,&nbsp;Lluís Brotons","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110998","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110998","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding and accurately predicting species distribution dynamics is essential for effective biodiversity conservation and management. Spatial dynamic occupancy models (SpDynOcc models) provide a valuable framework for analyzing temporal changes in species occurrence but require substantial data, making it critical to understand their data needs for reliable estimates. In this study, we use a simulation approach to investigate the role of survey effort, both in terms of study duration and spatial coverage, in obtaining accurate predictions from a generic <em>SpDynOcc</em> model. We also test the efficacy of two alternative sampling designs compared to random sampling. We varied multiple factors influencing species occurrence and detection (initial occupancy, occupancy dynamics, and probability of detection) to study the way in which they affect the data requirements for accurate parameter estimation. Models performed best with longer study durations, higher spatial coverage, and higher effective probability of detection (i.e., over all survey occasions). Nevertheless, the specific minimum sampling coverage needed notably varied based on initial occupancy and on occupancy dynamics scenarios. Preferential habitat sampling performed particularly well for low initial occupancy and high-decrease scenarios. These results indicate that tailored survey strategies are essential and must be informed by the specific ecological context. Our findings provide guidance on the survey designs needed to obtain accurate SpDynOcc model predictions, aiding researchers in the effective application of these models for studying species spatial occupancy dynamics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110998"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159907","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Development and testing of a mechanistic potential niche model of riparian tree seedling recruitment","authors":"Sierra J. Phillips ,&nbsp;Gregory B. Pasternack ,&nbsp;Kenneth Larrieu","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110986","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110986","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Seedling recruitment is an important reproductive process for sustaining riparian tree populations in arid and semi-arid environments. Riparian tree species such as cottonwoods and willows are highly adapted to the dynamic riparian environment; their seed dispersal and germination patterns are tied with climatic signals that also drive hydrology. The magnitude and timing of seasonal hydrologic components determine environmental conditions that either promote or limit seedling establishment processes. This article presents the development and testing of a potential niche model for riparian seedling recruitment. The presented Riparian Seedling Recruitment Model (RSRM) identifies spatially explicit locations of suitable habitat for seedling recruitment driven by relevant hydrophysical processes. This model extends previous seedling recruitment algorithms by accounting for seedling mortality due to scour by sediment mobilization, the reduction of potential germination sites due to existing forest canopy shade, and the incorporation of engineered channel and substrate modifications. The model is integrated into the open-source river analysis software River Architect. Potential future applications for the model include assessing seedling recruitment patterns for existing conditions, under alternative flow regimes, or for designs with topographic modifications. A canonical test channel and five scenarios with relevant hydrographic features are used to perform an implementation verification. Predictable recruitment patterns for the canonical test channel demonstrate model functionality and establish a dataset for future benchmarking. Finally, results from a site on the lower Yuba River, California are presented to illustrate the usefulness of a simplified test site given the complexity of results from real-world data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110986"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159924","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A new growth curve and fit to the National Forest Inventory data of Finland","authors":"Lauri Mehtätalo ,&nbsp;Minna Räty ,&nbsp;Juho Mehtätalo","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Predictive models for stem volume increment are needed for many purposes, including the analysis of cutting potential and carbon balance. Motivated by a simple simulator based on age distribution and growth curve of a certain forest type within region, we present a new growth function for the volume increment as a function of stand age. The function is inspired by a mechanistic description of tree crowns and growth process, where the annual gross primary production is proportional to the theoretical area of the forest canopy when projected to the ground, and respiration is proportional to the accumulated growing stock volume. The function has four parameters with biologically meaningful interpretations. The function treats the annual increment as an instant event associated with ages that are non-negative integers. We also show how such a model for annual increment can be estimated based on National Forest Inventory (NFI) data of past 5 year’s increment in the context of nonlinear regression modelling. The model showed extremely good fit in a data set of 34000 remeasured NFI plots from Finland. Comparison with the widely used Richard’s function further indicates that the new function may provide a significant improvement to forest growth modelling. The new function and the approach to estimate current annual increment based on the periodic annual increments of past 5 years opens interesting new opportunities to the use of NFI data sets in scenario analyses of the growth, removals and carbon sinks in long term, which are also illustrated.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 111006"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrating static and dynamic analyses in a spatial management framework to enhance ecological networks connectivity in the context of rapid urbanization","authors":"Feiyu Chen ,&nbsp;Qiaoling Luo ,&nbsp;Zhibing Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111022","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111022","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urbanization and habitat fragmentation threaten biodiversity and ecosystem health worldwide. Effective strategies to enhance ecological networks (ENs) connectivity are vital for mitigating these challenges and promoting regional sustainability. Taking Jiangxia District inWuhan, China as a case, this study proposed a spatial management framework that integrates static and dynamic analyses to enhance ENs connectivity in the context of rapid urbanization. By combining morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA) with a minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model, a ecological network of 52 ecological sources and 128 corridors was established. Static analysis through circuit theory identified critical areas affecting landscape connectivity, while dynamic analysis using future land-use simulations (FLUS) evaluated the vulnerability of ecological lands under various urban expansion scenarios. This research not only fills a gap in spatial specificity within ENs connectivity studies but also introduces an integrated framework that harmonizes current and future spatial planning needs. The findings offer actionable strategies for urban ecological planning and green space management, aimed at strengthening regional ecological protection and supporting sustainable development in the face of ongoing urban expansion.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 111022"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159928","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ecological effect of seasonally changing temperature on the life cycle of Aurelia aurita","authors":"Da Song ,&nbsp;Wentao Fu ,&nbsp;Meng Fan ,&nbsp;Kun Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111014","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111014","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Jellyfish blooms, observed as seasonal phenomena and closely related to seasonal changes in temperature, have emerged as a significant challenge for global marine ecology and environmental protection. Investigating the interplay between jellyfish growth and seasonally changing temperature is essential to understand the triggering mechanism of jellyfish blooms. A non-autonomous two-stage (Medusa-Polyp) dynamical model, which incorporates the seasonally driven temperature, is formulated to elucidate this mechanism. Both theoretical analyses and numerical simulations are conducted to explore the ecological effect of seasonally changing temperatures on the life cycle of <em>Aurelia aurita</em>. Seasonal control strategies are proposed to regulate jellyfish abundance, and the comparison to year-round control strategies is discussed. It is demonstrated that the cyclic variation in the jellyfish population is indeed driven by seasonally changing temperatures and the global warming leads to an earlier onset and larger magnitude of jellyfish blooms. The temperature-dependent processes in the life cycle of jellyfish are crucial for determining the annual pattern of jellyfish dynamics, and sensitivity analyses indicate that the polyp strobilation and ephyra development are key processes in life cycle. Among the parameters that can be controlled in practice, controlling them in spring and autumn is cost-effective for regulating jellyfish abundance. The findings of this study offer valuable insights into the mechanisms driving jellyfish growth from an annual perspective, and propose control strategies from different viewpoints for managing jellyfish blooms in the context of global warming.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 111014"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143158998","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}