Ecological Modelling最新文献

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Sensitivity analysis of a hydrodynamic and harmful algal model in a riverine system 河流水动力和有害藻类模型的敏感性分析
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110846
Raúl J. Osorio , Anna Linhoss , Justin Murdock , Mindy Yeager-Armstead , Meena Raju
{"title":"Sensitivity analysis of a hydrodynamic and harmful algal model in a riverine system","authors":"Raúl J. Osorio ,&nbsp;Anna Linhoss ,&nbsp;Justin Murdock ,&nbsp;Mindy Yeager-Armstead ,&nbsp;Meena Raju","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110846","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110846","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Simulating algae blooms using a hydrodynamic-water quality model is challenging because it requires a thorough understanding of physical and biological processes and involves numerous parameters. This study conducted a sensitivity analysis of the EFDC+ hydrodynamic and water quality model for simulating cyanobacteria growth, an important Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB) species in the Ohio River, USA. The sensitivity analysis assessed 23 model input parameters, divided into nine functional groups according to their characteristics. This assessment analyzes the impact of changing these input parameters on four water quality model outputs including algae (i.e., cyanobacteria), dissolved oxygen, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus. Light extinction parameters, maximum algal growth rate, and algal base metabolism were identified as the most sensitive parameters for simulating algal growth. Solar radiation required for algal growth was moderately sensitive. Currently, there are only a few studies that simulate HAB dynamics in riverine systems. This study deepens our understanding of HAB development in rivers with lock and dam structures that create a series of pools along the river. Future work will involve focusing on the sensitive parameters in model calibration.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"497 ","pages":"Article 110846"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142121805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Consequences of intraspecific competition for floral resources in heterogeneous landscapes for eusocial bees 群居蜜蜂在异质景观中争夺花卉资源的后果
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2024-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110844
Richard J. Walters , Ola Olsson , Peter Olsson , Henrik G. Smith
{"title":"Consequences of intraspecific competition for floral resources in heterogeneous landscapes for eusocial bees","authors":"Richard J. Walters ,&nbsp;Ola Olsson ,&nbsp;Peter Olsson ,&nbsp;Henrik G. Smith","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110844","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110844","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Agricultural intensification is widely recognised as a primary driver of pollinator loss, but the success of land-management actions designed to remediate its impact is often mixed. Payments to farmers to increase habitat connectivity or the availability of floral and nesting resources may only result in short-term gains or even unintended consequences. The reasons may lie in changes to interaction networks or competition intensity that remain poorly understood. Models of pollination service typically implicitly assume pollinator population dynamics are regulated by nest-site availability, even though empirical evidence suggests nest-site occupancy is likely at least in part dependent on floral resource availability. To investigate the consequences of competition for floral resources in coarse-grained agricultural landscapes we extended an established model for bees combining optimal foraging and population dynamics, to include new functions for floral resource depletion and realistic colony dynamics. We find that intra-specific competition occurs late in the season forcing bees to forage underutilised sites situated further towards their foraging range limits. A lower rate of energy acquisition ultimately limits the size of the colony peak and delays its timing. Consequently, competition for floral resources can limit population size and distribution while at the same time contributing to a more stable and efficacious pollination service. Although competition was not found to be important in nest-site establishment success, the effect of a hunger gap early in the season on nest-site occupancy indirectly influences competition later in the season leading to complex outcomes.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"496 ","pages":"Article 110844"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380024002321/pdfft?md5=119fb124dcb08a48e3f81dd9281a001d&pid=1-s2.0-S0304380024002321-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142095350","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A high resolution hydrodynamic-biogeochemical-oyster-filtration model predicts that the presence of oysters (Crassostrea virginica) can improve, or reduce, water quality depending upon oyster abundance and location 高分辨率水动力-生物地球化学-牡蛎-过滤模型预测,牡蛎(Crassostrea virginica)的存在可改善或降低水质,具体取决于牡蛎的丰度和位置
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110833
R.K. Gawde , E.W. North , R.R. Hood , W. Long , H. Wang , M.J. Wilberg
{"title":"A high resolution hydrodynamic-biogeochemical-oyster-filtration model predicts that the presence of oysters (Crassostrea virginica) can improve, or reduce, water quality depending upon oyster abundance and location","authors":"R.K. Gawde ,&nbsp;E.W. North ,&nbsp;R.R. Hood ,&nbsp;W. Long ,&nbsp;H. Wang ,&nbsp;M.J. Wilberg","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110833","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110833","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The eastern oyster (<em>Crassostrea virginica)</em> provides numerous ecosystem services such as building reef habitat, clarifying the water by filtering seston, and reducing excess nitrogen when their biodeposits are denitrified. Some of these ecosystem services have been extensively studied using two-dimensional and three-dimensional (3D) models. Yet, the relationship between oyster abundance, their filtration and biodeposition rates, and associated water quality metrics has not been estimated with high-resolution models that include biodeposit resuspension as well as simulation of 3D processes in the sub-tributaries where oysters are abundant. To undertake these estimates, a 3D Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) framework, comprised of a coupled hydrodynamic-water quality model with an oyster filtration and biodeposition sub-model, was implemented over a fine-resolution model grid (120–150 m) of the Choptank River on the eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay, U.S.A. After validation with data from 20 cruises between May and September 2010, the model was used to predict seven variables associated with water quality in simulations with zero, recent, and 50x recent abundances of oysters. Results indicated that improvement in the seven water quality variables differed in response to the abundance of oysters and between regions in the Choptank River. In line with expectations, the water quality metrics improved with increasing oyster abundance in the shallow and retentive sub-tributaries of Broad and Harris Creeks. In contrast, in the deeper and more flushed mainstem of the Choptank River, some water quality metrics deteriorated when recent abundances of oysters were added to the model compared to the simulation with zero oysters and the same metrics improved when oyster abundances were increased by 50x. Overall, model results indicated that the many complex physical and biogeochemical processes that influence the effect of oysters on water quality resulted in differing responses to oysters across different systems. In addition, this study introduces a high-resolution, predictive tool that could be used to estimate the number of oysters needed to meet water quality thresholds in specific systems in support of ecosystem management.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"496 ","pages":"Article 110833"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142088659","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Multiscale habitat suitability modeling for a threatened raptor offers insight into ecological model transferability 一种濒危猛禽的多尺度栖息地适宜性建模为生态模型的可移植性提供了启示
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2024-08-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110845
Danial Nayeri , Samuel Cushman , Joseph Ganey , Logan Hysen , Micaela Szykman Gunther , David Willey , Ho Yi Wan
{"title":"Multiscale habitat suitability modeling for a threatened raptor offers insight into ecological model transferability","authors":"Danial Nayeri ,&nbsp;Samuel Cushman ,&nbsp;Joseph Ganey ,&nbsp;Logan Hysen ,&nbsp;Micaela Szykman Gunther ,&nbsp;David Willey ,&nbsp;Ho Yi Wan","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110845","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110845","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Habitat fragmentation and loss are major threats to species conservation worldwide. Studying species-habitat relationships is a crucial first step toward understanding species habitat requirements, which is necessary for conservation and management planning. However, some species inhabit a range of habitat types, potentially making the use of range-wide habitat models inappropriate due to non-stationarity in species-habitat preferences. The Mexican spotted owl (<em>Strix occidentalis lucida</em>) (MSO) is a species that inhabits both forests and rocky canyonlands, two habitats with large differences in environmental conditions. It is unclear whether the species uses habitat differently in these two habitat types or if previously-built habitat models for forest-dwelling owls can be used to understand MSO habitat use in rocky canyonlands. To explore this, we developed the first scale-optimized habitat suitability model for this subspecies of spotted owl in rocky canyonlands using an ensemble framework. We then compared our results with a previously-built habitat model for MSO in forested areas. In the rocky canyonland model, slope (800 m scale), cumulative degree days (1200 m scale), insolation (1000 m scale), and monsoon precipitation (100 m scale) were the most important environmental covariates. In contrast, in the forest model, percent canopy cover (100 m scale), percent mixed-conifer (5000 m scale), and slope (500 m scale) were the most important environmental covariates. The rocky canyonland model performed well, while the forest model performed poorly when projected to rocky canyonlands and predicted low suitability across the entire study area, including areas with known nesting locations. These results support the non-stationarity in habitat use for MSOs between rocky canyonland and forest habitats. Hence, when transferring habitat suitability models from one region to another, it is necessary to evaluate the transferability of the model by accounting for non-stationarity in species-habitat preferences.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"496 ","pages":"Article 110845"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380024002333/pdfft?md5=89ed834e62bb77af5c0a49a863dc1a26&pid=1-s2.0-S0304380024002333-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142088658","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Useful properties of phenomenological-based models 基于现象的模型的有用特性
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2024-08-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110850
Estefania Aguirre-Zapata , Laura Lema-Perez , Lina Gomez-Echavarria , Hector Botero-Castro , Juan C. Maya , Farid Chejne , Hernan Alvarez
{"title":"Useful properties of phenomenological-based models","authors":"Estefania Aguirre-Zapata ,&nbsp;Laura Lema-Perez ,&nbsp;Lina Gomez-Echavarria ,&nbsp;Hector Botero-Castro ,&nbsp;Juan C. Maya ,&nbsp;Farid Chejne ,&nbsp;Hernan Alvarez","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110850","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110850","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This work compiles the conceptual and practical proposals of various research groups regarding interesting properties of mathematical models. Although different types of mathematical models are mentioned, phenomenological-based semi-physical models (PBSM) are the main focus of this paper. The partitioning of the process to be modeled, the scalability of the model, and the interpretability of its parameters are presented as important properties of the model that help to understand and use the mathematical model. The use of these properties is illustrated with examples, providing the respective bibliographical reference where an expanded presentation of each example can be reviewed. The importance of each model property presented is explained from the inherent condition of the model as a mathematical object and from the expectation of the final users of the model. The confidence in the model is increased when the user knows how the model is obtained. These properties provide valuable information to the end use of the model. Therefore, the modeler must understand and apply this knowledge during model deduction and write, in the model report, how the mentioned properties were tested.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"496 ","pages":"Article 110850"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142083644","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Network theory and migration: Avoiding misapplications and misinterpretations 网络理论与移民:避免误用和误解
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2024-08-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110849
Jessica R. Cañizares , J. Michael Reed , Nina H. Fefferman
{"title":"Network theory and migration: Avoiding misapplications and misinterpretations","authors":"Jessica R. Cañizares ,&nbsp;J. Michael Reed ,&nbsp;Nina H. Fefferman","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110849","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110849","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Network analysis is becoming a popular tool for the study of animal movement. Proliferation of software enables researchers to use network measures without reflecting on the underlying mathematics and biology. One common use characterizing movement networks, such as migration, with centrality measures. Predominantly developed to evaluate social systems, these measures now appear in applications across disciplines that vary greatly in system properties. Each network measure has a very specific mathematical definition, with implicit assumptions about system properties to which they are applied that often make them inappropriate for migration. We report mismatches between mathematical assumptions and applications of network measures to migration, primarily with bird examples. For example, of 11 trajectory-transmission network-flow processes observed in the real world, only two are applicable to bird migration, neither of which allows valid application of classical centrality measures. We also identify misinterpretations of network measures, such as nodes with the highest degree centrality as locations where individuals intermingle. Other misinterpretations include that a high betweenness score translates to a node that is frequently used or is an important site along a main migratory route. Finally, networks are used in different ways, ranging from descriptive visualization to quantitative prediction and we identify common cases, such as migratory connectivity, where this leads to miscommunication. Network-theoretic approaches to answer ecological research and conservation questions associated with migration are numerous, but new measures need to be developed for animal migration. We provide a guide for researchers of animal movement for measure selection, development, and documentation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"496 ","pages":"Article 110849"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142047763","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An agent-based model of elephant crop raid dynamics in the Periyar–Agasthyamalai complex, India 基于代理的印度佩里亚尔-阿加斯提亚马莱综合体大象袭击农作物动态模型
IF 3.1 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110843
Anjali Purathekandy, Meera Anna Oommen, Martin Wikelski, Deepak N. Subramani
{"title":"An agent-based model of elephant crop raid dynamics in the Periyar–Agasthyamalai complex, India","authors":"Anjali Purathekandy, Meera Anna Oommen, Martin Wikelski, Deepak N. Subramani","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110843","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110843","url":null,"abstract":"Human–wildlife conflict challenges conservation worldwide, which requires innovative management solutions. We developed a prototype Agent-Based Model (ABM) to simulate interactions between humans and solitary bull Asian elephants in the Periyar–Agasthyamalai complex of the Western Ghats in Kerala, India. The main challenges were the complex behavior of elephants and insufficient movement data from the region. Using literature, expert insights, and field surveys, we created a prototype behavior model that incorporates crop habituation, thermoregulation, and aggression. We designed a four-step calibration method to adapt relocation data from radio-tagged elephants in Indonesia to model elephant movements in the model domain. The ABM’s structure, including the assumptions, submodels, and data usage are detailed following the Overview, Design concepts, Details protocol. The ABM simulates various food availability scenarios to study elephant behavior and environmental impact on space use and conflict patterns. The results indicate that the wet months increase conflict and thermoregulation significantly influences elephant movements and crop raiding. Starvation and crop habituation intensify these patterns. This prototype ABM is an initial model that offers information on the development of a decision support system in wildlife management and will be further enhanced with layers of complexity and subtlety across various dimensions. Access the ABM at .","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"75 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142193305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Good modelling practice in ecology, the hierarchical Bayesian perspective 生态学中的良好建模实践--分层贝叶斯视角
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2024-08-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110847
Philip A. White , Alan E. Gelfand , Henry Frye , John A. Silander Jr
{"title":"Good modelling practice in ecology, the hierarchical Bayesian perspective","authors":"Philip A. White ,&nbsp;Alan E. Gelfand ,&nbsp;Henry Frye ,&nbsp;John A. Silander Jr","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110847","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110847","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Ecological modelling often involves addressing challenges such as dependence in responses, e.g., spatial and/or temporal correlation, heterogeneity of variance, and hierarchical structures inherent in ecological processes and data. A constant challenge is the inadequacy of the data to well address the questions of interest. What is observable may not be sufficiently informative. What has been observed may not have been well designed. Carefully conceived modelling can take us to improved inference compared with adopting standard inference tools like basic regression and analysis of variance. Hierarchical modelling techniques provide a powerful framework for capturing these complexities by explicitly modelling the multi-level structure of ecological systems.</p><p>In this paper we focus on good modelling practice in the hierarchical Bayesian framework. We discuss good modelling practice in the form of 10 steps, elaborated with a running example, to aid quantitative ecologists interested in employing Bayesian modelling. Two of the authors are statisticians who view themselves primarily as stochastic modellers. The other two are quantitative ecologists who view such stochastic tools as essential for advancing ecological knowledge. Hence, implicitly, we pay careful attention to good modelling practice. Further, we argue the benefits that accrue to working in a Bayesian framework as the paper is developed.</p><p>It is worth noting that the steps we propose, though presented in the context of ecological modelling, are appropriate for effective model building across most fields of application.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"496 ","pages":"Article 110847"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142021262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Patch spatial attributes and time to disturbance affect the emergence of source local populations within ephemeral habitats 斑块的空间属性和受到干扰的时间会影响短暂栖息地内本地源种群的出现
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2024-08-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110839
Tiago Crispim-Mendes , Deon Roos , Clara Mendes Ferreira , Joana Paupério , João Paulo Silva , Sérgio Godinho , Paulo Célio Alves , António Mira , Pedro Beja , Xavier Lambin , Ricardo Pita
{"title":"Patch spatial attributes and time to disturbance affect the emergence of source local populations within ephemeral habitats","authors":"Tiago Crispim-Mendes ,&nbsp;Deon Roos ,&nbsp;Clara Mendes Ferreira ,&nbsp;Joana Paupério ,&nbsp;João Paulo Silva ,&nbsp;Sérgio Godinho ,&nbsp;Paulo Célio Alves ,&nbsp;António Mira ,&nbsp;Pedro Beja ,&nbsp;Xavier Lambin ,&nbsp;Ricardo Pita","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110839","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110839","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Understanding the demography of local populations within ephemeral habitat patches is crucial for effective local (site-based) conservation management in spatially and temporally heterogeneous environments. Evidence suggests that species persisting in networks of ephemeral patches often exhibit source-sink dynamics, where certain local populations act as temporary sources at some time between initial colonization and patch disappearance due to disturbance. Here we present an individual-based demographic model inspired by Cabrera voles (<em>Microtus cabrerae</em>) in dynamic agricultural mosaics to test the hypothesis that the emergence of a source local population within an ephemeral habitat patch is largely driven by the combined effects of the patch spatial attributes (size, internal quality and connectivity to other hypothetical patches) and the time to disturbance (i.e. the patch lifespan). We focused on two key emergent demographic metrics quantifying the source-sink status of local populations based on their self-sustainability and potential contribution to other patches. We used sensitivity analyses to estimate the strength of linear associations between these metrics and the patch spatial attributes, and to quantify the main and interaction effects across different patch lifespans since initial colonization. Our model revealed that considerable spatial and temporal variation may emerge in local populations’ source-sink status based on differences in patch size, internal quality, connectivity, and lifespan. According to predictions, patch internal quality correlated positively with local population self-sustainability and potential contribution to other patches, though the strength of these relationships was mostly relevant only after about three vole generation times (ca. one year) since initial colonization, and only in combination with the positive effects of patch size and connectivity. Accordingly, results also supported the prediction that the emergence of a temporary source local population is conditional to the longevity of the habitat patch, with short patch lifespans (less than about three vole generation times) greatly limiting local population self-sustainability and potential contribution to other patches. While empirical testing is needed to confirm these findings, our study strengthens the view that local management efforts focusing on reducing or mitigating disturbance (e.g. severe droughts, human farming activities) at large and well-connected high-quality patches will likely promote the occurrence of temporary source local populations, which should be crucial for long-term species persistence over larger spatial scales.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"496 ","pages":"Article 110839"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380024002278/pdfft?md5=87fe5c7105530f77425e35b5ca2b1789&pid=1-s2.0-S0304380024002278-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142021261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Predicting the effect of climate change and management on net carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystems of the European part of Russia with the complex of models 利用复合模型预测气候变化和管理对俄罗斯欧洲地区森林生态系统净碳吸收的影响
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2024-08-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110835
Vladimir Shanin , Sergey Chumachenko , Pavel Frolov , Irina Priputina , Daria Tebenkova , Anna Kolycheva
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