Ecological Modelling最新文献

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Predicting biological control performance under global change using model-based exploration of predator-prey dynamics: application to the Nesidiocoris tenuis - Tuta absoluta system 利用基于模型的捕食者-猎物动态探索预测全球变化下的生物防治效果:在Nesidiocoris tenuis - Tuta absoluta系统中的应用
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111186
Isabelle Grechi , Mame Diarra Bousso Ba , Philippe Correa , Massamba Diakhaté , Thibault Nordey , Serigne Sylla , Thierry Brévault , Anaïs Chailleux
{"title":"Predicting biological control performance under global change using model-based exploration of predator-prey dynamics: application to the Nesidiocoris tenuis - Tuta absoluta system","authors":"Isabelle Grechi ,&nbsp;Mame Diarra Bousso Ba ,&nbsp;Philippe Correa ,&nbsp;Massamba Diakhaté ,&nbsp;Thibault Nordey ,&nbsp;Serigne Sylla ,&nbsp;Thierry Brévault ,&nbsp;Anaïs Chailleux","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111186","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111186","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global change is disrupting our knowledge of ecosystem functioning through climate warming and pest invasion, affecting predator-prey population dynamics. We hypothesized that the control of invasive pests by native predators would decrease with increasing temperatures. We investigated the effects of high temperatures jointly with other factors related to biological control conditions (i.e., habitat complexity reflected by predator searching efficiency, predator-to-prey ratio, and relative timing of species establishment) on predator-prey population dynamics for the zoophytophagous and generalist mirid bug, <em>Nesidiocoris tenuis</em>, and the tomato leaf miner, <em>Tuta absoluta</em>, a native insect predator and an invasive insect pest, respectively, in Senegal. We carried out life history trait measurements in the laboratory at different temperatures (i.e., constant temperatures of 25, 30, 35, 40, and 45 °C and temperatures of 40:35 °C alternating following the light and dark cycle). We developed a stochastic individual-based model to simulate predator and prey population dynamics. Both species were able to complete their life cycle until 35 °C and until 40 °C when the night temperature decreased to 35 °C, while populations persisted over time only at 25 and 30 °C. Contrary to our expectations, pest control increased with temperature due to a higher predation efficiency and asymmetries between insect fitness responses to temperature in favor of the predator. Our study showed that populations of <em>T. absoluta</em> would not increase at high temperatures, either due to successful control by <em>N. tenuis</em> at 30 °C or due to a population collapse at 35 °C and beyond, as <em>T. absoluta</em> approaches its critical thermal maximum. At a temperature less favorable for pest control (25 °C), the timing of predator and pest establishment was the main factor determining the performance of pest control. Control was ensured when the predator established before or close to pest infestation. This can occur with generalist predators that can survive by feeding on alternative resources.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"507 ","pages":"Article 111186"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144083757","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How well do SDMs calibrated at large extents predict distribution in sub-areas: A case study 在很大程度上校准的sdm预测子区域分布的效果如何:一个案例研究
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111170
Moritz Fallgatter, Stefan Dullinger, Karl Hülber, Dietmar Moser, Norbert Helm, Kryštof Chytrý, Johannes Hausharter, Johannes Wessely
{"title":"How well do SDMs calibrated at large extents predict distribution in sub-areas: A case study","authors":"Moritz Fallgatter,&nbsp;Stefan Dullinger,&nbsp;Karl Hülber,&nbsp;Dietmar Moser,&nbsp;Norbert Helm,&nbsp;Kryštof Chytrý,&nbsp;Johannes Hausharter,&nbsp;Johannes Wessely","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111170","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111170","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurately capturing the realized niches of species is essential for applying species distribution models (SDMs), for example in conservation planning. Therefore, SDMs are typically calibrated over large spatial extents to avoid niche truncation but subsequently applied to distinguish suitable from unsuitable habitats within much smaller areas. However, model accuracy is commonly only assessed at the full calibration range, and whether the reduction of extent between calibration and projection areas reduces model accuracy has rarely been systematically evaluated. In this case study, we calibrated SDMs for 16 alpine plant species by relating occurrence records from across the European Alps to six topo-climatic predictors at a spatial resolution of 100 × 100 m. We then projected the species’ distributions across the Alps and compared the accuracy achieved at the extent of the Alps to the one achieved within three individual mountain landscapes. Projection accuracy for individual mountains differed strongly, ranging from projections even slightly more accurate than for the entire Alps to those much less accurate. The drop in projection accuracy between the extent of the Alps and the individual mountains increased with the dissimilarity of the niche realized by a species on a particular individual mountain as compared to the one realized at the extent of the Alps. Thus, full-extent accuracy metrics can be strongly misleading for smaller-extent applications. We recommend that such applications should be accompanied by a careful evaluation of the niche realized by species at both extents. If sufficient data are available at both extents, combining models calibrated at both scales, as recently suggested, appears a particularly promising approach.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"507 ","pages":"Article 111170"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144088943","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Modelling forest-atmosphere exchanges of carbon and water using an improved hydro-biogeochemical model in subtropical and temperate monsoon climates 利用改进的亚热带和温带季风气候下的水文-生物地球化学模型模拟森林-大气碳和水交换
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111174
Wei Zhang , Xunhua Zheng , Siqi Li , Shenghui Han , Chunyan Liu , Zhisheng Yao , Rui Wang , Kai Wang , Xiao Chen , Guirui Yu , Zhi Chen , Jiabing Wu , Huimin Wang , Junhua Yan , Yong Li
{"title":"Modelling forest-atmosphere exchanges of carbon and water using an improved hydro-biogeochemical model in subtropical and temperate monsoon climates","authors":"Wei Zhang ,&nbsp;Xunhua Zheng ,&nbsp;Siqi Li ,&nbsp;Shenghui Han ,&nbsp;Chunyan Liu ,&nbsp;Zhisheng Yao ,&nbsp;Rui Wang ,&nbsp;Kai Wang ,&nbsp;Xiao Chen ,&nbsp;Guirui Yu ,&nbsp;Zhi Chen ,&nbsp;Jiabing Wu ,&nbsp;Huimin Wang ,&nbsp;Junhua Yan ,&nbsp;Yong Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111174","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111174","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Forest-atmosphere carbon exchanges are crucial yet challenging to quantify accurately due to scaling uncertainties in site observations. Process-based models that mechanistically represent coupled carbon, nitrogen, and water cycling processes are theoretically capable of reducing uncertainties in forest carbon flux quantification, thereby improving predictions of multiple ecosystem variables relevant to achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030. Thus, we enhanced the CNMM-DNDC model by developing a forest-specific growth module incorporating key processes (photosynthesis, allocation, respiration, mortality, litter decomposition) based on Biome-BGC formulations. Compared with the original model, evaluation against 8-year (2003–2010) eddy covariance data from three Asian forests showed significant improvements in the updated model. At daily and annual scales, normalized root mean square error decreased by 46% and 54% for gross primary productivity (GPP), and 65% and 37% for ecosystem respiration (ER), respectively, though net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange (NEE) improvements were less pronounced due to error offsetting. Sensitivity analysis identified specific leaf area, fraction of leaf nitrogen in Rubisco and annual leaf and fine root turnover fraction as most influential eco-physiological parameters, with solar radiation, humidity and air temperature as dominant meteorological drivers. The model’s ability to capture daily and inter-annual carbon flux variations demonstrates its potential for regional-to-global greenhouse gas assessments, while highlighting the need for component-specific validation to avoid error masking in net flux calculations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"507 ","pages":"Article 111174"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144071540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Integrating functional connectivity and habitat stability into fish habitat assessment and optimizing ecological operation 将功能连通性和生境稳定性纳入鱼类生境评价,优化生态运行
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111189
Shiwei Yang , Tao Yang , Ruifeng Liang , Yuanming Wang , Kefeng Li
{"title":"Integrating functional connectivity and habitat stability into fish habitat assessment and optimizing ecological operation","authors":"Shiwei Yang ,&nbsp;Tao Yang ,&nbsp;Ruifeng Liang ,&nbsp;Yuanming Wang ,&nbsp;Kefeng Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111189","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111189","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the development of society and the growing demand for an energy transition, the scale and installed capacity of hydropower have been steadily increasing. However, this has led to a series of ecological and environmental issues, with threats to fish habitats caused by hydrological alterations being particularly significant. Habitat assessment can be used to effectively identify the impacts of hydraulic projects on ecosystems, particularly with respect to ecological flows and ecohydrological characteristics. The current methods of ecological flow determination focus solely on habitat area while overlooking habitat connectivity. Additionally, the identification of ecohydrological characteristics is based entirely on hydrological data, neglecting habitat stability. We selected the large national spawning ground downstream of the Xiangjiaba (XJB) hydropower station and the protected fish species <em>Myxocyprinus asiaticus</em> (<em>M. asiaticus)</em> as research subjects and incorporated functional connectivity and habitat stability into a fish habitat assessment model. Functional connectivity of habitat patches was evaluated using circuit theory, and habitat stability under flow variations was assessed through overlap rate. By simulating the habitat distribution and variations under various flow scenarios, we identified the suitable ecological flow range as 2205–2695 m³/s. The optimal daily flow variation range was determined to be -41.8 to 53.1 m³/s, with the extreme range of -137.3 to 171.8 m³/s. On the basis of these habitat requirements, we proposed an optimized ecological operation scheme. Compared with actual operations, in the minimum ecological deviation scenario, power generation is reduced by only 0.44 %, and the degree of ecological flow deviation is considerably decreased by 43.47 %. Moreover, the optimized scheme yields a stable and suitable flow lasting for one month, which is conducive to promoting the spawning and reproduction of <em>M. asiaticus</em>. The findings and framework presented in this study provide valuable guidance for reservoir management and assessments of watershed ecology.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"507 ","pages":"Article 111189"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144070023","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Recommendations for estimating and detecting time-varying spawner-recruit dynamics in fish populations 估计和检测鱼类种群中随时间变化的产卵-招募动态的建议
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111159
Catarina Wor , Dan A. Greenberg , Carrie A. Holt , Brendan Connors , Megan L. Feddern , Cameron Freshwater , Gregory L. Britten , Mackenzie Mazur
{"title":"Recommendations for estimating and detecting time-varying spawner-recruit dynamics in fish populations","authors":"Catarina Wor ,&nbsp;Dan A. Greenberg ,&nbsp;Carrie A. Holt ,&nbsp;Brendan Connors ,&nbsp;Megan L. Feddern ,&nbsp;Cameron Freshwater ,&nbsp;Gregory L. Britten ,&nbsp;Mackenzie Mazur","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111159","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111159","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Models that account for time-varying dynamics are increasingly used in population assessments in recognition of changing biological and environmental conditions. We performed a systematic simulation analysis based on a semelparous life history to evaluate the performance of various Ricker spawner-recruit models including stationary, random-walk, and regime shift models, that offer various interpretations of time-varying dynamics. Estimation models that allowed parameters to vary following random-walks tended to perform equally well or outperform regime shift and stationary models. However these results were not consistent across all scenarios examined. We also evaluated the performance of model selection criteria commonly used to identify time-varying processes. Both likelihood based model selection criteria (AICc and BIC) and cross-validation methods (LFO) were found to be unreliable, with a few exceptions. Changes in productivity were more identifiable than changes in capacity or both parameters, which were often indiscernible from stationary dynamics. The results were sensitive to the magnitude of parameter change and extent of residual variability (unexplained error), with greater changes and lower error being easier to accurately estimate and select. Given this context dependence for the accuracy of parameter estimates with time-varying models, and unreliable nature of selection criteria, we recommend that analysts conduct case-specific simulation-evaluations when model choices may have important and divergent management implications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"507 ","pages":"Article 111159"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143942611","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Improving species distribution models by optimising background points: Impacts on current and future climate projections 通过优化背景点改进物种分布模型:对当前和未来气候预测的影响
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111177
Armand Rausell-Moreno , Núria Galiana , Babak Naimi , Miguel B. Araújo
{"title":"Improving species distribution models by optimising background points: Impacts on current and future climate projections","authors":"Armand Rausell-Moreno ,&nbsp;Núria Galiana ,&nbsp;Babak Naimi ,&nbsp;Miguel B. Araújo","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111177","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111177","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Species Distribution Models (SDM) are often fit using presence-background data due to the lack of reliable absence records. To calibrate these models, background records are required, yet the optimal number of records and if they should be proportional to study area or the number of occurrences remains uncertain. This study addresses three key questions: (i) how does varying background proportions affect predictive accuracy? (ii) How do background proportions influence future species distribution projections under climate change? and (iii) should the number of background records be determined based on study region size or presence record availability? To investigate these questions, we simulated 280 virtual species distributions worldwide under present and future climate conditions. Model outputs were evaluated against simulated “true” distributions under both present and future scenarios. Results indicate that sampling background records proportional to either presence points or study area yields comparable average performance. Optimal performance occurred with a 0.5–1 ratio of background records to presence points when sampled proportionally to presences, and with approximately 5 % of the study area sampled when proportional to region size. Species prevalence also modulated the optimal presence-background ratio. Increasing the number of background records across suitable and unsuitable areas had contrasting effects for both strategies tested, emphasizing the need to assess model performance separately for both. Notably, background proportions influenced baseline predictions but had minimal impact on future projections, where niche-related variables dominated model performance. These findings offer practical insights for SDM practitioners. Adjusting background sampling strategies enhances current prediction accuracy, while future projections remain robust across different sampling approaches, ensuring more reliable modelling outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"507 ","pages":"Article 111177"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143942610","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Elasticity analysis of population growth: Implications of matrix model construction 人口增长的弹性分析:矩阵模型构建的意义
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111163
Stefano Giaimo
{"title":"Elasticity analysis of population growth: Implications of matrix model construction","authors":"Stefano Giaimo","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111163","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111163","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Elasticity analysis can help ecologists and population managers to rank demographic processes based on their relative contributions to population growth. Here, numerous studies are reviewed where results of elasticity analysis that appear to be specific to the analyzed data can, to some extent, be anticipated on the basis of how the population projection matrix (PPM) was constructed in these studies, independently, or largely so, of the parametrization of this matrix with data. Focus is on the elasticities of population growth at demographic equilibrium to the entries of a time-independent population projection matrix. An essential component in the construction of a PPM is establishing its pattern, here defined as the location of nonnegative entries of the matrix and their demographic meaning. Studies using age-classified models are reviewed separately from studies using stage-classified models. While reviewing both types of studies, several interrelated rules are recalled that can help derive a ranking of elasticities, either from the pattern of the PPM alone or in combination with very little demographic data. It is suggested that greater awareness of the existence of these rules can be beneficial for practitioners of elasticity analysis: some desired results of this analysis can at times be predicted <em>a priori</em> or without full parametrization of the PPM; moreover, the rules can contribute to informing decisions based on the results of elasticity analysis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"507 ","pages":"Article 111163"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143942612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sub-seasonal forecasting of thermal stress for Swiss river fishes during heatwaves 热浪期间瑞士河鱼热应激的分季节预报
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111171
Adeline Bonaglia , Chenyu Shen , Ryan S. Padrón , Konrad Bogner , Fabian Fopp , Aurélie Rubin , Jean-François Rubin , Antoine Adde , Antoine Guisan , Camille Albouy , Loïc Pellissier
{"title":"Sub-seasonal forecasting of thermal stress for Swiss river fishes during heatwaves","authors":"Adeline Bonaglia ,&nbsp;Chenyu Shen ,&nbsp;Ryan S. Padrón ,&nbsp;Konrad Bogner ,&nbsp;Fabian Fopp ,&nbsp;Aurélie Rubin ,&nbsp;Jean-François Rubin ,&nbsp;Antoine Adde ,&nbsp;Antoine Guisan ,&nbsp;Camille Albouy ,&nbsp;Loïc Pellissier","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111171","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111171","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rising temperatures and an increasing frequency of extreme events, such as heatwaves pose major threats to ecosystems, impacting ectothermic organisms including fish. Elevated water temperatures, coupled with reduced oxygen levels, intensify stress and mortality among fish fauna, necessitating urgent action to address the impacts of heatwaves on biodiversity. Here, we propose to combine sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasting methodologies with ecological modeling integrated with physiological parameters. Specifically, we developed a sub-seasonal forecast model designed to assess fish stress during heatwaves in Swiss rivers. We first compiled from the literature physiological parameters related to fish thermal stress to construct a thermal stress index. The developed model integrates deep-learning forecasts of water temperature with fish physiological data and species distribution modelling to offer a process-driven prediction of heat-stress responses. To validate its efficacy, we retrospectively applied the model to the 2018 heatwave across 20 measurement stations on lowland Swiss rivers, comparing its results with assessments from experts and practitioners. We found that the model successfully forecast stress peaks 2–3 weeks in advance at two validated key sites, where high mortality was reported by practitioners. By classifying fish species based on their thermal sensitivity, we identified a high vulnerability of salmonids. Applications of our model intend to alleviate climate change impacts, resulting in targeted actions to reduce local fish mortality.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"507 ","pages":"Article 111171"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143935845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Modeling water quality in a subalpine lake 模拟亚高山湖泊的水质
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111172
Jonathan Clough , Brenda Rashleigh , Rajbir Parmar , Kurt Wolfe , Christopher D. Knightes , Deron Smith
{"title":"Modeling water quality in a subalpine lake","authors":"Jonathan Clough ,&nbsp;Brenda Rashleigh ,&nbsp;Rajbir Parmar ,&nbsp;Kurt Wolfe ,&nbsp;Christopher D. Knightes ,&nbsp;Deron Smith","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111172","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111172","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Subalpine lakes are valuable resources that are at increasing environmental risk. Aquatic ecosystem models are useful tools for understanding dynamics of lakes, however, there are few examples of these models being applied to subalpine lakes, which may differ from temperate lakes in dimensions such as physical setting and ecology. Here we apply the aquatic ecosystem model AQUATOX to the Loch, a well-studied lake in Rocky Mountain National Park in Colorado, USA, to assess the applicability of this model to a subalpine lake setting, and to identify modeling gaps. We found that AQUATOX could represent phytoplankton dynamics during the ice-off period. Attempting to calibrate the model during the ice-on period using the same structure and parameters as the ice-off period underestimated winter chlorophyll <em>a</em> concentrations. Additionally, the model was used to simulate a nutrient bioassay experiment – nitrate was well simulated; P was overestimated but consistent with the observed pattern. These results support the use of current models for subalpine lakes when data are sufficient. Areas identified for future model development include better models for boundary conditions, improved light data, modeling of mixotrophy, and better representation of ice formation and under-ice stratification.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"507 ","pages":"Article 111172"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143931882","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A generational randomized growth model for fall-spawning Atlantic herring: Insights from real-world data 秋季产卵大西洋鲱鱼的世代随机生长模型:来自现实世界数据的见解
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111144
Jacob Burbank , Juan-Carlos Cortés , Cristina Luisovna Pérez , Rafael-Jacinto Villanueva
{"title":"A generational randomized growth model for fall-spawning Atlantic herring: Insights from real-world data","authors":"Jacob Burbank ,&nbsp;Juan-Carlos Cortés ,&nbsp;Cristina Luisovna Pérez ,&nbsp;Rafael-Jacinto Villanueva","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111144","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111144","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Southern Gulf of St. Lawrence fall-spawning Atlantic herring has seen rapid declines in biomass and is currently in the cautious zone of the Precautionary Approach Framework. Moreover, it is rapidly approaching its limit reference point. In this work, we build and calibrate a realistic model using random differential equations and age-length data for this species. The calibrated random model’s 95% probabilistic intervals encompass nearly all observed data points while maintaining narrow uncertainty bounds, exhibiting its capacity to capture data variability. Additionally, the Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error between the model’s mean predictions and observed values remains below 2.86% across all calibrated years, indicating that the model effectively represents the species’ growth dynamics. Our results indicate that over time the population is experiencing a reduction in maximum size and is not achieving as advanced ages. Furthermore, we show that there is greater intra-annual variability over time, pointing towards less consistent growth patterns in recent years. These changes in the growth dynamics of the Southern Gulf of St. Lawrence fall-spawning Atlantic herring, suggested by our model, could significantly reduce reproductive output and hinder the species’ rebuilding capacity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"507 ","pages":"Article 111144"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143931881","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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