Ecological Modelling最新文献

{"title":"Model perpetuation by designing and documenting models and workflows so that they can be reused and further developed by others: The case of multiple stressors in ecology","authors":"Laura Meier ,&nbsp;Volker Grimm ,&nbsp;Karin Frank","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111029","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111029","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>For model development and use, there are recommendations for documenting the model itself, the simulation experiments, or the whole modelling process in general, all of which contribute to good modelling practice (GMP). However, it remains a challenge to prepare models for their perpetuation, so that both the original developers and others can run them for new scenarios or develop the model further. As a result, despite the often considerable effort that goes into developing a model, it is not used any more as soon as the developers no longer have the resources to do so. We therefore present recommendations for Model Perpetuation, referred to as DOSE, which consists of four components: How to (1) Design, (2) Operationalize scenarios, (3) Simulate and (4) Evaluate. We focus on models that represent the effects and interactions of multiple stressors, as this type of model is becoming increasingly important in ecology and elsewhere. Our recommendations are based on the development of our mechanistic model of riverine ecosystems, MASTIFF. DOSE is intended as a checklist to facilitate Model Perpetuation and can therefore contribute to the development of a more comprehensive GMP. DOSE has the potential to increase the return on investment in model development. It can facilitate community model development, thereby broadening the scope of models and providing a much-needed stronger focus on multiple stressors. DOSE could be the first step towards a standardized approach to ensuring Model Perpetuation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 111029"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143158995","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamic ammonia exchange within a mixed deciduous forest canopy in the Southern Appalachians","authors":"Rick D. Saylor ,&nbsp;John T. Walker ,&nbsp;Zhiyong Wu ,&nbsp;Xi Chen ,&nbsp;Donna B. Schwede ,&nbsp;A.Christopher Oishi ,&nbsp;Nebila Lichiheb","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ammonia (NH₃) concentration and flux measurements made in 2016 in a mixed deciduous forest at the western North Carolina Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory are analyzed using a multi-layer, one-dimensional column model with detailed canopy physics and bi-directional exchange. Simulations for April 26–30 and July 19–30 are presented to assess the model's ability to represent measured in-canopy NH₃ profiles and probe the processes that control bi-directional exchange with the canopy and forest floor. During dry canopy conditions, model simulations are found to well reproduce measured in-canopy profiles for both the April and July periods, given appropriate model inputs. Results from the model, and the shape of in-canopy NH₃ profiles, are sensitive to vertical turbulent mixing, the values of the input soil/litter emission potential, and the assumed litter resistance. NH₃ fluxes simulated above the forest canopy are very small (-25 to -5 ng m^-2 s^-1 in April and &lt; 1 ng m^-2 s^-1 in July) with primarily deposition to the canopy during the April time period, but with mixed deposition/emission during July. The model also suggests that net deposition or emission of NH₃ can be a function of location within the canopy, depending on the difference between the air concentration and the effective canopy compensation point. However, during periods when the canopy is wet from overnight dew and drying rapidly, the model does a poor job of replicating in-canopy profiles, typically underestimating NH₃ concentrations, since the model does not account for the release of NH₃ from evaporating dew. Although available data during the field campaign are not sufficient to rule out other potential hypotheses, given that the model reasonably reproduces in-canopy profiles during dry canopy periods, but fails during periods of rapid drying, the results are suggestive that dew is playing a major role in NH₃ concentration changes observed in July during the field study. Additional studies and measurements are needed to determine the processes and environmental controls that affect NH₃ absorption and release from dew and to evaluate the importance of this process for modeling deposition and re-emission on the regional scale. Further questions that arise from our findings are whether the variation of NH₃ deposition or emission with location in the canopy is important from an ecological perspective and how in-canopy dynamics might be represented in regional-scale air quality models. Traditional big-leaf approaches of modeling NH₃ bi-directional exchange cannot account for in-canopy variation such as that presented here, and so multi-layer approaches may need to be developed for more nuanced estimates of NH₃ deposition to forest ecosystems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 111007"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimating landscape intensity through farming practices: An integrative and flexible approach to modelling farming intensity from field to landscape","authors":"Simon Maudet ,&nbsp;Théo Brusse ,&nbsp;Benoit Poss ,&nbsp;Gaël Caro ,&nbsp;Ronan Marrec","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110975","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110975","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Context</h3><div>Landscape intensity is a major driver of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in agricultural landscapes, and is often used to inform environmental quality. It is commonly described by land cover alone, as farming practices are assumed to be correlated with crop types. Despite their potential impact on field quality, distribution of farming practices at landscape scale is poorly understood, due to the lack of methods for summarizing the numerous farming practices at field and landscape levels.</div></div><div><h3>Objectives</h3><div>The main objective was to develop a modelling approach that synthesizes the intensity of farming practices at field and landscape levels. Additionally, we sought to assess the importance of considering farming practices in addition to land cover when studying landscape quality.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>Using survey data collected in two contrasting French agricultural areas, we selected and summarized PCA components using an equation adapted from Herzog et al. (2006; DOI: 10.1016/j.eja.2005.07.006) to compute practice intensity indices integrating levels of fertilization, pesticides, tillage, mowing/harvesting, or of all practices. We compared the distribution of these indices between crops, landscapes, and study areas. Finally, we compared landscape patch richness as an indicator of their (dis)similarities on the basis of land cover, intensity, and the two superimposed, comparing the use of 2 to 20 intensity classes.</div></div><div><h3>Results and conclusion</h3><div>We found significant differences between land cover intensities, which were not consistent depending on the level of practice considered. Furthermore, for similar crops, we found significant differences between areas. This shows that land cover may not be a good indicator of practice intensity at field level. Moreover, landscape structure described by patch richness differs significantly according to the classification systems studied, and depends on the number of intensity classes considered, which we likened to the sensitivity of a response variable. Thus, landscape intensity based on land cover does not effectively describe that caused by agricultural practices either.</div></div><div><h3>Significance</h3><div>The method we developed allows studying farming practice intensity at the landscape scale, using any number of numerical descriptors of the intensity of farming practices, to be used flexibly, depending on the objectives and hypotheses of the researchers and the finesse of the practice data available. It also demonstrates its value insofar as land cover proves insufficient to describe the distribution of farming practices between fields and, consequently, the resulting landscape quality. Our method can be used to study a wide range of phenomena linked to landscape intensity, and to reconsider previous assumptions based solely on land cover.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110975"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159789","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inferring the relative importance of navigation and landscape effects for migratory populations using agent-based models","authors":"Mitchell J. Kendzel ,&nbsp;Jacobus C. de Roode ,&nbsp;Lance A. Waller","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Seasonal migration is a vital behavior for numerous animal species, offering ecological services such as seed dispersal, pollination, and resource influxes. However, accurately describing and predicting the spatial dynamics of migrating populations remains a challenge due to the scale of the behavior and the different navigation strategies employed by the animals to complete it. The goal of this study is two-fold: (1) to develop an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate the final spatial distributions of migratory animals using two navigation strategies—true navigation and vector navigation—and (2) to use a case study of migratory monarch butterflies to determine the value of comparing model-generated spatial patterns with empirical observations. True navigators are hypothesized to use a combination of location and directional information to reach specific destinations, while vector navigators follow consistent directions throughout their journey, without altering these directions with respect to their current location. Therefore, it is logical to assume that true navigators would be more accurate in reaching specific destinations than vector navigators. Our model was designed to test this assumption by investigating the spatial distribution of migrants traveling across landscapes characterized by water bodies and elevational gradients. While true navigators were indeed more likely to reach their destinations than vector navigators on homogeneous landscapes, our model revealed that heterogeneous landscapes can successfully channel vector navigators to their destinations. Applying the model to monarch butterflies, we found that simulated distributions based on vector navigation closely matched observed overwintering locations. This not only demonstrates the utility of our model in generating spatial patterns that can be compared to empirical data, but also reveals that vector navigation across a heterogeneous landscape is a plausible strategy that would allow western monarch butterflies to reach their overwintering sites. The analysis also highlighted limitations in the observed data, such as biases introduced by preferential sampling, emphasizing the need for improved data collection methodologies. This study demonstrates the utility of ABMs in linking hypothesized navigation processes to observed migratory patterns, offering a framework for investigating and distinguishing navigation strategies in varying migratory species.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 111008"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159922","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Attractor of a neutral individual-based forest model captures spatiotemporal structure characteristics of a mature tropical forest","authors":"Marc A. Dubois ,&nbsp;Michael A. Allen ,&nbsp;Wirong Chanthorn ,&nbsp;Laurent Cournac ,&nbsp;Louise H. Emmons ,&nbsp;Charly Favier ,&nbsp;Bernard Riéra","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Like other ecosystems, a forest never reaches a static equilibrium (climax), but ends up on a stochastic attractor, as a few dynamical systems approaches have shown. Here, we follow a tropical evergreen South American forest in French Guyana, which has not been anthropically perturbed for around 200 years, and then only in minor ways (and there have been no large scale perturbations since around 500 years ago). This study presents both experimental data and a modelling approach. Our data consists of measurements of the leaf area index (LAI) at high resolution along thirteen 512<!--> <!-->m-long transects in July of 2000, 2009, and 2018. For each transect we plot the mean LAI (<span><math><mover><mrow><mi>LAI</mi></mrow><mo>¯</mo></mover></math></span>) against its standard deviation (<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>σ</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>LAI</mi></mrow></msub></math></span>). We find that each transect follows a trajectory in <span><math><mrow><mo>(</mo><msub><mrow><mi>σ</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>LAI</mi></mrow></msub><mo>,</mo><mover><mrow><mi>LAI</mi></mrow><mo>¯</mo></mover><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span>-space which is confined to an oval-shaped domain. A strong change is observed between 2000 and 2009, with lower <span><math><mover><mrow><mi>LAI</mi></mrow><mo>¯</mo></mover></math></span> and higher <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>σ</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>LAI</mi></mrow></msub></math></span>, on average, hinting at temporal environmental degradation. However, the average values over all transects in 2018 show a quasi-return to the 2000 values. This is explained by a rainfall deficit in 2009, but does not exclude the possibility of a systematic drift in the future. In the modelling part, we improved upon the very simple cellular automata type model used in previous work by incorporating a more realistic description of tree life and death, and it successfully reproduces the dynamic behaviour of the real forest. The fact that such a simple model gives a very good description of the forest behaviour is strong evidence for the efficacy of a dynamical systems approach to the understanding of real forest ecosystem dynamics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 111009"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159927","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of public health interventions on the transmission of asymptomatic syphilis: A modeling study based on Yunnan Province, China (2008–2022)","authors":"Ruiyu Chai ,&nbsp;Yiting Zhang ,&nbsp;Gongke Yang ,&nbsp;Jiaxin Hao ,&nbsp;Shifang Qu ,&nbsp;Menghan Lu ,&nbsp;Xiaoyue Sun ,&nbsp;Tian Ma ,&nbsp;Yong Li ,&nbsp;Siyu Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111035","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111035","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Yunnan Province has high syphilis incidence, but research on asymptomatic syphilis remains limited. Understanding its transmission and trends is critical for control.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>The Yunnan syphilis data (2008–2022) were sourced from the China Disease Control and Prevention Information System. After smoothing the data to correct for fluctuations caused by factors unrelated to the disease, we constructed an SEIR model with an asymptomatic compartment and calculated the basic reproduction number (<span><math><msub><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn></msub></math></span>). Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were performed using Latin hypercube sampling and the partial rank correlation coefficient. Various scenarios assessed parameter impacts on new primary and asymptomatic cases.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>New primary syphilis cases in Yunnan increased from 2008 to 2012, showing a \"U-shaped\" pattern from 2013 to 2022. Sensitivity analyses indicated a strong correlation between <span><math><mrow><mspace></mspace><msub><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn></msub></mrow></math></span>, the proportion of progressing to primary syphilis, and recovery rate. Without intervention, new primary and asymptomatic syphilis cases will rise, but reducing the progression rate and improving treatment recovery through comprehensive measures can effectively decrease them.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>Although <span><math><mrow><msub><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn></msub><mspace></mspace></mrow></math></span> decreased from 1.58 to 1.39 between the two stages, the syphilis transmission risk remains in Yunnan, particularly among asymptomatic individuals. Control measures should prioritize early detection and treatment of primary syphilis, particularly asymptomatic cases while targeting low-risk populations for effective control.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 111035"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143158993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Land suitability assessment and self-sufficiency evaluation for fodder crop production in a hyper arid environment coupling GIS-based multi-criteria decision making and optimization","authors":"Hazrat Bilal,&nbsp;Fatima-Zahra Lahlou,&nbsp;Tareq Al-Ansari","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111021","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111021","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Site selection for outdoor agricultural activities is crucial in hyper-arid environments. This study evaluates land suitability for fodder crop production in the State of Qatar. It aims to provide a multi-criteria evaluation based spatial decision support system, considering the usage of rainfall, treated wastewater, and groundwater for irrigation. Analytic Hierarchy Process and GIS-based multi-criteria approaches are used to calculate the weights of evaluation criteria and generate suitability maps. A considerable land area can potentially be used for fodder crop production, considering different water sources including groundwater, treated wastewater and rainfed irrigation. Results demonstrate that relying solely on rainfall limits the most suitable area for green fodder cultivation to just 8-653 km². However, when groundwater and treated wastewater are incorporated into the water budget allocated for fodder production, the most suitable area expands to 25-2072 km². An optimization model is then developed to estimate the maximum self-sufficiency that can be achieved between 2024 and 2030 considering land suitability maps and different water budgets. Some of the dominant limiting factors for fodder crop self-sufficiency are erratic rainfall, spatial heterogeneity in groundwater quality and transportation of wastewater for irrigation. To achieve self-sufficiency in fodder crop production, 456 km² of land, 91.3 thousand cubic meter of water and 73–456 MWh of energy are required annually. Given the country's water budget and irrigation practices, the maximum self-sufficiency that can be achieved in 2030 is 48.6%, which entails the use of 57 million m³ of groundwater resources and up to 464 million m³ of treated sewage effluent. This highlights that, through strategic planning and sustainable water resource management, the country has the potential to significantly enhance its self-sufficiency in fodder crop production.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 111021"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fungal pathogen transmission dynamics in North American salamanders: Mathematical insights for disease management","authors":"Mohammad Mihrab Chowdhury ,&nbsp;Matthew J. Gray ,&nbsp;Edward Davis Carter ,&nbsp;Douglas C. Woodhams ,&nbsp;Julia A. McCartney ,&nbsp;James G. Surles ,&nbsp;K McKensie Nelms ,&nbsp;Hao Gan ,&nbsp;Angela Peace","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111028","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111028","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The transmission dynamics of infectious diseases in amphibians, particularly those with multiple transmission routes, are complex and can rapidly evolve into epizootics. Here, we consider the eastern newt (<em>Notophthalmus viridescens</em>) and the emerging fungal pathogen <em>Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal)</em> as a host for amphibians and a pathogen for infectious diseases, respectively. The susceptible population can become infected by <em>Bsal</em> in two ways: direct contact with infected newts or by environmental zoospores. To properly depict the impact of <em>Bsal</em> on amphibians, we categorized the host newt population into distinct life stages: larvae, eft, and adult. Each life stage represents unique traits and habitat preferences. Considering these, we employed an interdisciplinary approach by combining mathematical modeling and laboratory experiments to explore the deterministic transmission dynamics of <em>Bsal</em> in amphibians. We developed a compartmental model employing a system of ordinary differential equations comprising life cycle and disease dynamics.</div><div>In lab experiments, we varied temperature, initial population density, and life stages to measure the key parameters such as the contact rates among newts in aquatic and terrestrial environments, the probability of transmission upon host contact, zoospore shedding rate, zoospore degradation rate, disease-induced death rate, and incubation period. Our analysis revealed that environmental conditions, particularly temperature and density of newts, play a crucial role in influencing model parameters and disease dynamics. In all cases, adult eastern newt populations in aquatic environment approached extinction in <span><math><mo>&lt;</mo></math></span>6 months, while eft populations in the terrestrial environment persisted. Declines were most rapid and extreme at 14 C compared to 6 C. Sensitivity analyses revealed that reducing host density, increasing zoospore degradation, and strategies that increase host immune defense will reduce <em>Bsal</em> invasion potential. Our results highlight the threat of <em>Bsal</em> to North American salamander species; however, shed new light on possible mitigation strategies if it is introduced.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 111028"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159535","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Improving forest gross primary productivity estimation through climate and trait integration","authors":"Hongge Ren ,&nbsp;Li Zhang ,&nbsp;Min Yan ,&nbsp;Bo Zhang ,&nbsp;Linlin Ruan","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111027","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111027","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate simulation of ecosystem process-based models is generally determined by plant functional parameterizations. However, due to the lack of observed plant functional traits, many traits in plant functional types (PFT) are constant in the process-based models. Actually, there are significant variations in the plant trait even among the same PFT across different environmental gradients. We developed a new parameterization scheme (plant functional-climate types, PFCT), incorporating plant trait variability and climate regulation into the Biome-BGCMuSo model. Seven key trait parameters for forest gross primary productivity (GPP) were first identified using 91 flux towers and sensitivity analysis, including leaf flush rate time (LFRT), carbon to nitrogen ratio in leaves (C:N_leaf), light extinction coefficient (k), leaf nitrogen return (FLNR), mean residence time per plant (MR_pern), vapor pressure deficit factor (VPD_f), and specific leaf area (SLA). The Plant Functional Trait Classification (PFCT) was developed by integrating PFT with Köppen-Geiger climate zones, effectively constraining PFT through climatic characteristics and highlighting the interactions between plant traits and environmental conditions. The statistical analysis based on TRY plant databases and parameter correction algorithms confirms that these parameters exhibit significant changes within PFT and climate zones. The PFCT scheme acknowledged the significant variability in key trait parameters within PFT, which is often overlooked in traditional process-based models. Three parameterized simulation schemes were designed based on the variability gradient of key trait parameters, and the accuracy of simulated GPP under the PFCT parameterization scheme was verified through comparison. Validation against 91 forest flux sites and two global carbon flux products revealed high correlation (<em>r</em> = 0.89) and low error metrics (Bias = 2.14 g C/m²/day, RMSE = 2.84 g C/m²/day) at the site level, and good agreement at the regional level (<em>r</em> = 0.76, Bias = 1.16 g C/m²/day, RMSE = 2.20 g C/m²/day). The PFCT parameterization scheme (S3) increased the original model's (S1, PFT-based parameterization) overall accuracy by 21.84 %, achieving over 80 % of the accuracy of trait-based parameterization (S2). These findings emphasize the necessity of incorporating plant traits variability and climatic regulation from various PFT in accurate ecosystem modeling.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 111027"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143158994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Seasonal pattern of dengue infection in Singapore: A mechanism-based modeling and prediction","authors":"Ilham Saiful Fauzi ,&nbsp;Nuning Nuraini ,&nbsp;Regina Wahyudyah Sonata Ayu ,&nbsp;Imaniah Bazlina Wardani ,&nbsp;Siti Duratun Nasiqiati Rosady","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Seasonal variations in dengue infections are predominantly observed in tropical countries, where regular climate cycles influence vector populations and lead to substantial spikes in dengue incidence during specific periods each year. In Singapore, dengue cases typically peak in July, coinciding with the onset of the Southwest Monsoon season. Here, we developed a mechanistic SIR-SEI mathematical model that incorporates seasonal patterns through periodic vector recruitment rates to forecast future dengue outbreaks. By approximating the time-dependent infection rate parameter with a 10-term Fourier series, we predicted a rise in dengue cases in early 2024, later confirmed by actual case reports. Simulation results demonstrated strong alignment with observed data, showing a relative error of 4.99% within the maximum data range. Additionally, equivalence testing rejected the null hypothesis of dissimilarity, indicating that the model’s predictions closely fit the actual data. Further analysis revealed a 10-week lag between increased infection rates and subsequent incidence spikes, accompanied by an effective reproduction number that confirms dengue’s endemic status in Singapore. The model’s predictive accuracy and epidemiological insights highlight its potential as an effective early warning system, supporting government efforts in dengue outbreak prevention and management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 111003"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143158989","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}