Ecological Modelling最新文献

{"title":"How priority effects within co-infected individuals scale up to affect disease risk in a two-host-two-pathogen system","authors":"Jing Jiao ,&nbsp;Michael H. Cortez","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111025","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111025","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>An individual host’s risk of infection by a focal pathogen depends on the other host and pathogen species in the community. Using a model of two environmentally transmitted pathogens and two host species, we explore how priority effects within co-infected individuals and interspecific host competition jointly influence infection risk by a focal pathogen. To do this, we use infectious propagule density as a proxy for infection risk and compute explicit formulas for the (local) sensitivity of infectious propagule density of the focal pathogen to infectious propagule density of the alternative pathogen. We use the formulas to identify biological processes shaping the relationships between the infectious propagule densities, thus determining how infection risk by the focal pathogen changes as the abundance of the alternative pathogen increases. We find that the ranges of possible shapes of the relationships are predicted by the relative shedding and mortality rates of singly-infected and co-infected individuals of both species, but the host species with greater abundance and greater shedding rates has larger effects. We then simulate our model using parameter sets derived from <em>Daphnia</em> and their parasites and show how interspecific host competition and host susceptibility influence the shapes of the relationships. We find that asymmetric interspecific host competition reduces the range of possible shapes for the relationships because it suppresses the density of one host species whereas host susceptibility can increase the range of possible relationships. Our results show how within-host pathogen interactions can scale up to affect population-level measures of infection risk.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"502 ","pages":"Article 111025"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143322013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modelling interactive effects of biological and environmental factors on fine-scale coral settlement patterns","authors":"Molly-Mae Baker ,&nbsp;Anna K. Cresswell ,&nbsp;James P. Gilmour ,&nbsp;Michael Renton","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111037","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111037","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>For sessile organisms with dispersive propagules, the habitat in which propagules settle plays a key role in determining post-settlement survival, which is fundamental for the maintenance and recovery of populations. Corals provide an interesting example, as an array of bio-physical settlement cues, along with other environmental conditions such as current flow and habitat distribution, can influence where larvae settle. The ways in which these processes interact to influence spatial patterns of coral settlement remain largely unexplored, due to the difficulty in directly observing and measuring the dispersal and settlement of tiny (≤ 1 mm) larvae <em>in-situ</em>. To help address this knowledge gap, we developed a mechanistic simulation model to explore how three overarching factors — (1) the attractiveness of reef substrates, (2) local hydrodynamics and (3) the spatial distribution of reef substrates — might interact to influence fine-scale (centimetres to metres) spatial patterns of settlement. Through scenario exploration, we found that interactions among these three factors can lead to contrasting, and sometimes counterintuitive, spatial patterns of settlement. By simulating common field survey methods (settlement tiles and quadrat sampling) we show that interactions among biological and environmental factors could lead to incorrect conclusions, regarding, for example, the substrates larvae prefer for settlement. Lastly, with a case study from Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia, we illustrate how the model can help explore mechanisms underlying patterns of settlement within complex benthic landscapes and highlight key gaps in knowledge for future empirical research. Our results have implications for understanding and sampling spatial recruitment patterns in not only corals, but any organism with both dispersing and sessile life stages.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"502 ","pages":"Article 111037"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143322012","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Permafrost environment evaluation of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau based on DPSRC theory and system dynamics","authors":"Yi-Ning Ye ,&nbsp;Ya-Ling Chou ,&nbsp;Dong Zhao ,&nbsp;Wei Cao ,&nbsp;Jia-Wei Xu ,&nbsp;Ai-Jun Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110992","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110992","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As the concept of sustainable development continues to evolve, the changes in permafrost environment under the influence of engineering construction and climate change have received more and more attention from scholars at home and abroad. Herein, to solve the dependence of each factor on time and complexity of the interactions among factors in permafrost environment, a comprehensive evaluation model based on Driving Force-Pressure-State-Response-Control (DPSRC) theory and system dynamics (SD) was proposed. This model can evaluate permafrost environment of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau which is effected by climate change (CC), engineering construction (EC), and artificial prevention measures (APM). The evaluation system of permafrost environment was established according to DPSRC theory. Based on SD, a casual loop model and a stock-and-flow model with three subsystem models were established to evaluate permafrost environment. Then, the validity of the comprehensive evaluation model is verified. Chai-Mu Railway was taken as the research section and set whether to use artificial prevention measures (APM) as the simulation condition to obtain the regional permafrost environment evaluation under different scenarios. The evaluation results show that artificial prevention measures (APM) were necessary for regional permafrost environment, special subgrade (thermosyphon subgrade) treatment was more effective than ecological protection investment. This comprehensive evaluation model was objective and reliable, and can provide a basis for the protection and management of permafrost environment in the future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110992"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143158982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A generalist species of highly specialized individuals?","authors":"S.A. Cushman ,&nbsp;K. Kilshaw ,&nbsp;Z. Kaszta ,&nbsp;R.D. Campbell ,&nbsp;M. Gaywood ,&nbsp;D.W. Macdonald","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111012","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;div&gt;The ecological niche and the species-environment relationship are both cornerstones of contemporary ecological science. The realized habitat niche defines the conditions in which a species occurs, is adapted and can thrive, and quantification of the species-environment relationship is a means to describe the realized habitat niche. A frequent, if unspoken, assumption in analyses of species-environment relationships and the ecological niche is that there is a common, stationary and stable relationship between a species and its environment. This implies, additionally, that this relationship applies to the species as a whole, or rather to all individuals of the species. However, another cornerstone of ecological science is that populations, and even individuals, differ in their genetic characteristics and the environmental influences that shape their behavior. Therefore, the species-environment relationship and the realized habitat niche are likely to vary intra-specifically. Uniformity in behaviour under different ecological circumstances or genetic homogeneity in response to spatially varying limiting factors are assumptions that should be investigated and tested. In this paper, using European wildcat (&lt;em&gt;Felis silvestris)&lt;/em&gt; x domestic cat &lt;em&gt;(F.catus)&lt;/em&gt; hybrids in Scotland as a policy-relevant exemplar, we explore what ecological modellers call nonstationary habitat use, and what field ecologists call individual variation, or, with an evolutionary perspective, intra-specific variation. We analyze the occurrence patterns and ecological response curves of 14 individual wildcat hybrids distributed across Scotland to assess how much individual variation there is in expressed patterns of habitat association across multiple environmental variables. We propose three conceptual models corresponding to three divergent patterns of habitat association for the sampled population: stationary generalist, stationary specialist, and nonstationary specialist. Each of these alternative hypotheses of habitat selection for wildcat hybrids had unique expectations for the shape and overlap of response curves along environmental variables, and for the degree of overlap between used and available habitat among individuals. We were able to show a high degree of individual heterogeneity and specialization across our small but geographically widespread sample. Our results support the hypothesis that wildcat hybrids in Scotland are nonstationary habitat specialists. That is, the habitat associations of wildcat hybrids are highly heterogeneous at an individual level, and that pooled analyses across individuals fails to completely represent the range or variation of individual responses, and also fails to represent the actual habitat selection response curves of any individual. This provides a compelling example of the highly variable and heterogenous nature of habitat association within a single species. Our results support other recent studies where specie","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 111012"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Corrigendum to “How can oak regeneration in the Leipzig Floodplain Forest be effectively supported by femel plantations? Application of a demographic forest model” [Ecological Modelling 499 (2025) 110920]","authors":"Jack Boyce ,&nbsp;Lucian Elles ,&nbsp;Stefanie Henkel ,&nbsp;Hans D. Kasperidus ,&nbsp;Andreas Padberg ,&nbsp;Mathias Scholz ,&nbsp;Markus E. Schorn ,&nbsp;Andreas Sickert ,&nbsp;Michael Vieweg ,&nbsp;Nadja Rüger","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110989","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110989","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110989"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143386585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the sustainability of China's coastal regions: A perspective on local coupling and telecoupling","authors":"Miao Hu ,&nbsp;Yongtao Bian ,&nbsp;Guangxing Ji","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110974","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110974","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The transboundary flow of resource elements has resulted in unprecedented transfers of environmental and social impacts, inevitably influencing a region's environmental carrying capacity and sustainability. Consequently, evaluating the effects of both internal and external resource elements on regional sustainability is crucial for advancing sustainable development. This study distinguishes between internal and external resource elements that support the development of China's coastal areas, based on local coupling and telecoupling theories. It employs the emergy analysis method to assess the degree of dependence of these coastal areas on external resource elements, as well as the environmental loading pressures resulting from both internal and external resource elements and evaluates the sustainability of China's coastal regions. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of environmental load pressure were analyzed using the Local Indicators of Spatial Association time path, while the driving forces affecting sustainability were examined through the Logarithmic Mean Divis Index method. The results indicate that social development in China's coastal areas increasingly relies on external resource elements. In Hebei, Liaoning, and Shandong, the environmental load pressure primarily arises from the utilization of internal resources, whereas in Tianjin and Shanghai, it mainly stems from external resources. Overall, the sustainability of China's coastal areas is trending downward. Enhancing emergy intensity, promoting sustainable resource use, and reducing reliance on imported resources can contribute to improved sustainability. Finally, several actionable suggestions are provided.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110974"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159788","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Addressing Data Limitations to Explore Management Strategies and Adaptations Using Stylized Agent-Based Modeling: A Case Study of Socio-Environmental Systems","authors":"Mehrsa Pouladi ,&nbsp;Parsa Pouladi ,&nbsp;Saba Naderian Jahromi ,&nbsp;Foad Namjoo","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110997","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110997","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This research employs a stylized agent-based model to investigate the complex interactions between human activities and environmental processes, focusing on the Lake Urmia Basin. A key contribution of this study is promoting the application of stylized ABMs to tackle socio-environmental challenges, especially when nonlinearity and multifaceted dynamics make it difficult to compile comprehensive data for developing management strategies. The primary objective of the model is to simplify these intricate dynamics, making it easier to explore key drivers of water resource depletion and system resilience. By abstracting the system, the model allows examination of various scenarios—such as improvements in irrigation efficiency and crop management strategies—without the need for detailed real-world data. Over 100 agricultural years (timesteps), the model simulates agricultural impacts on lake water area, irrigation practices, and farmer decision-making, highlighting critical feedback loops between human behavior and environmental outcomes. The benefits of this stylized modeling approach include its flexibility in testing hypothetical scenarios and its capacity to isolate key variables that influence the dynamics of human-environment systems. This simplicity allows researchers to identify broad patterns of behavior and system responses, making it an effective tool for evaluating water management strategies. The results show that while increasing irrigation efficiency and reducing water-intensive crops can delay system collapse, the most successful scenario requires both interventions at their highest levels. However, a more practical approach involving moderate improvements in both areas could significantly enhance the system's resilience. This research emphasizes the advantages of stylized ABMs in supporting sustainable water management practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110997"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143158988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrating karst bare rock index (KBRI) into the CASA model to improve grassland aboveground biomass estimation in karst area, Southwest China","authors":"Yanyun Deng ,&nbsp;Zhen Han ,&nbsp;Wanyang Yu ,&nbsp;Jinxin Zhang ,&nbsp;Rui Hou ,&nbsp;Longshan Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Aboveground biomass (AGB) is a vital factor when evaluating the grassland ecosystem service values, especially on regional scales. It is often estimated using the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA). However, the significant spatial heterogeneity of landforms in karst areas poses limitations for CASA, resulting in low accuracy in estimating AGB. The objective of this study was to combine CASA model with karst bare rock index (KBRI) to improve the estimation accuracy of grassland AGB in a typical karst area, Southwest China. The coefficient of determination (<em>R</em>²), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and modelling efficiency (<em>ME</em>) of the improved CASA are 0.677, 76.735 g m^-2, 65.224 g m^-2 and 0.736, respectively. These values are higher than those of the original CASA model, which has an <em>R</em>² of 0.468, RMSE of 98.541 g m^-2, MAE of 71.434 g m^-2, and <em>ME</em> of 0.519. The improved CASA model showed an average value of 739.95 g m^-2, which is closer to the measured AGB. Therefore, it is feasible to estimate the grassland AGB in karst area by integrating karst bare rock index into CASA model. Our results have provided new insights for monitoring grassland productivity in karst areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 111001"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143158990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Simulating endogenous institutional behaviour and policy implementation pathways within the land system","authors":"Yongchao Zeng ,&nbsp;Joanna Raymond ,&nbsp;Calum Brown ,&nbsp;Mohamed Byari ,&nbsp;Mark Rounsevell","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111032","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111032","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Policy interventions have substantial effects on land use change, providing key levers for multiple objectives, including mitigating climate change and biodiversity loss, and maintaining food security. Policy effects are often complicated, conflicting, and subject to regular change. Despite this, land system models typically treat policies as simple, exogenous modifications to models. To better represent the dynamic nature of policy-making, we develop an endogenous institutional model that can be embedded within land system models, here exemplified by an agent-based model. Numerical experiments are conducted to examine an institution with two policies targeting the production of ecosystem services. We find a clear scope for simulation-based exploration of policy-making, with emergent processes including the marginal diminishing effect of economic policy interventions, asymmetric spill-over effects for different ecosystem services, and trade-offs between policy goals. The endogenous institutional model demonstrates the potential to reveal various emergent patterns with important consequences for land systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 111032"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143158996","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Implementation of a web-based system for monitoring and simulation of arid zones in northwestern Mexico. Region of Mexico","authors":"Lidia Yadira Perez-Aguilar ,&nbsp;Wenseslao Plata-Rocha ,&nbsp;Sergio Alberto Monjardin-Armenta ,&nbsp;Ramon Fernando López-Osorio","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111024","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111024","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Aridity occurs due to natural factors like droughts, changing weather patterns, and fluctuations in precipitation and temperature, impacting agriculture, wildlife, the economy, and the environment. Monitoring these phenomena is vital for understanding their impact on past, present, and future arid zones. The purpose of this project was to create a web-based geotechnological platform for monitoring arid regions in northwest Mexico (SADEW-AridMonitor). A key component of the methodology involved integrating various computational tools, including web servers, map servers, database servers, programming languages, geographic information system libraries, and web development tools. The web platform handled all geoprocessing tasks and displayed maps of arid regions along with related data. Consequently, the platform generates maps of dry areas in the past, present, and future. Additionally, users have the option to download arid zone maps and associated factors, which can be viewed in any Geographic Information Systems software.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 111024"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}