Ecological Modelling最新文献

{"title":"Unified process model-based assessment of environmental interactions and ecosystem services of a managed fishpond-reed agroecosystem","authors":"P Sharma ,&nbsp;G Gyalog ,&nbsp;M Varga","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111151","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111151","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To support better management of agroecosystems, this work presents a novel approach by considering a quantitative dynamic model-based and holistic background of environmental interactions. Recognizing the increasing importance of coupled systems in environmental management, the methodology is illustrated by a case study of a managed fishpond, partially covered by reed vegetation, and surrounded by reed beds. The unified elements of Programmable Process Structures (PPS) are used to analyze the underlying processes (physical, chemical, biological, ecological, technological, and managerial) and to determine the effects of management interventions on the environmental interactions of the fishpond agroecosystem. Simplified sub-process models have been implemented to calculate the dynamic environmental interactions of the example system studied. The sub-models exploit the approximate stoichiometries and causal relationships behind the environmental interactions with a transparent insight into the structured functionalities of the complex system. These features provide holistic model-based simulations from which the impacts of different management scenarios can be assessed. It is also discussed how the calculated quantitative environmental interactions can be used for a more rigorous assessment of ecosystem services (ES) and dis-services (EDS). It is concluded that many categories of ES (such as provisioning and regulatory services) can be derived directly from the quantitative environmental interactions. Other categories, such as habitat maintenance for biodiversity and cultural services, can be derived by combining the simulated quantitative data with expert-defined qualitative rules. The generalizable results and the reusable computational method outline the basis for a case-specific decision support tool based on a process model in further work.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"506 ","pages":"Article 111151"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143887907","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring the spatio-temporal dynamics of disturbed metacommunities: A mechanistic modeling approach to species resistance and resilience strategies in drying river networks","authors":"Lysandre Journiac ,&nbsp;Franck Jabot ,&nbsp;Claire Jacquet ,&nbsp;Annika Künne ,&nbsp;Mathis Loïc Messager ,&nbsp;Louise Mimeau ,&nbsp;Thibault Datry ,&nbsp;Núria Bonada ,&nbsp;François Munoz ,&nbsp;Loïc Chalmandrier","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111136","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111136","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding how natural disturbance regimes drive biodiversity is a major research challenge. Yet, how species’ ecological strategies and disturbance regimes shape the structure of metacommunities across space and time remains poorly understood. In drying river networks (DRNs), drying events disrupt both local habitat within reach and connectivity among flowing sections. Drying-rewetting cycles alter two major mechanisms: ecological drift and dispersal dynamics. In this study, we present a mechanistic metacommunity model that simulates species’ ability to withstand drying (resistance strategy) and to recolonize communities after rewetting (resilience strategy characterised by species’ dispersal rate and dispersal distance). Coupling this model with realistic hydrological models, we simulated community dynamics in four European DRNs encompassing variable flow intermittence regimes. We investigate the relative importance of flow intermittence, network connectivity and species’ ecological strategies in shaping spatio-temporal meta-community patterns.</div><div>We show that higher connectivity increases reach-level α-diversity and decreases reach-level temporal β-diversity, whereas flow intermittence has the opposite effects. At the metacommunity scale, more intermittent DRNs exhibited low mean α-diversity and high spatial β-diversity, while DRNs with downstream drying exhibited high temporal β-diversity. Finally, we show that high levels of species drying resistance and dispersal counteract the effect of flow intermittence, leading to high mean α-diversity and low spatial and temporal β-diversities at the metacommunity scale. In contrast, dispersal distance had complex, non-linear effects on spatial and temporal β-diversities, because dispersal amplifies both community stochasticity and biotic homogenisation.</div><div>Our work emphasises how stochastic recolonisation of disturbed communities and biotic homogenisation interact with species resilience and resistance strategies to shape the spatio-temporal structure of biodiversity</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"506 ","pages":"Article 111136"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143891267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effects of intraguild predation on growth of sea anemone and scyphozoan with age structure","authors":"Shiyang Yu ,&nbsp;Congbo Xie ,&nbsp;Meng Fan","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111143","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111143","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Scyphozoan blooms disrupt the structure and function of coastal ecosystems, thereby exerting a profound impact on the degradation and evolution of those ecosystems. Exploring the ecological role of scyphozoan in the marine food web has become a critical concern in marine ecology. Observations revealed that sea anemones, another type of marine benthos, exhibit predator–prey and competitive interactions with scyphozoans at different stages of their life cycle, resulting in contrasting distribution patterns in coastal environments. In this study, a comprehensive food chain and life history model was formulated to account for the intraguild predation of anemones on scyphozoans. Our findings indicate that, in an ecosystem where anemones and scyphozoans coexist, the impact of scyphozoans reproduction on the stable state was diminished, and scyphozoans are not prone to mass blooms. Furthermore, the integration of anemones as biological control agents with non-biological strategies offers a promising approach to suppress scyphozoan surges. These results lay the theoretical foundation for an in-depth understanding of the distribution patterns of two populations, and offer valuable decision-making support and theoretical guidance for the implementation of effective control strategies aimed at mitigating scyphozoan blooms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"506 ","pages":"Article 111143"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143891809","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Can inverse calibration help improving process-explicit species distribution models?","authors":"Victor Van der Meersch,&nbsp;Isabelle Chuine","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111132","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111132","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Process-explicit models (PEMs) are expected to provide reliable projections of species range shifts because they explicitly model the biological mechanisms that drive species responses to climate. However, their application is often limited by the need for diverse and detailed datasets, which are only available for a limited number of species. Inverse calibration has been identified as an avenue to help calibrate PEMs for many species, but it is still unclear whether it can provide biologically meaningful parameter estimates. Here, we investigated the potential of inverse calibration techniques to improve the accuracy of PEMs. We examined the discrepancies in parameter estimates obtained by classical and inverse calibration approaches. We evaluated two inverse calibration strategies: (i) calibrating all parameters simultaneously and (ii) focusing only on critical parameters. We assessed the realism of the obtained parameter estimates and the simulated processes by comparing them with measurements and observations across Europe. We show that when the entire model is calibrated at once, the model structure alone may not sufficiently constrain parameter estimation, leading to unrealistic parameter values. However, selective application of the inverse calibration approach – focusing on critical parameters – can improve model performance while still simulating realistic biological mechanisms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"506 ","pages":"Article 111132"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143891808","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Application of an age-structured model to anchovy population in the Yellow Sea: Effects of fishing moratorium and selective fishing","authors":"Luwei Wang,&nbsp;Zhengyang Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111138","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111138","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, age-specific growth equations and the McKendrick–von Foerster equation are combined to establish an age-structured model of anchovy population. This model takes into account fishing mortality, where periods of fishing moratorium are considered. We estimate the parameter functions of the mathematical model by using data of the biological parameters of anchovy in the Yellow Sea. Numerical simulation results of the model are compared with acoustic biomass estimates and annual catches in the Yellow Sea from 1987 to 2002. The comparison results show that the model effectively combines the biological characteristics of anchovy with fishery management measures. In addition, various simulations of different scenarios of fishing moratorium and selective fishing are conducted. We find that the sustainable development of anchovy resources in the Yellow Sea is affected by different fishing moratoriums and the implementation of fishery quota management. A longer fishing moratorium is beneficial for the anchovy biomass in the Yellow Sea.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"506 ","pages":"Article 111138"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143887906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"When can few-species models describe dynamics within a complex community?","authors":"Stav Marcus,&nbsp;Guy Bunin","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111137","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111137","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Dynamics of species’ abundances in ecological communities are often described using models that only account for a few species. It is not clear when and why this would be possible, as most species form only a part of diverse ecological communities, with many species that are not included in these few-variable descriptions. We study theoretically the circumstances under which the use of such models is justified, by considering the dynamics of a small set of focal species embedded within a diverse, sparsely-interacting community. We find that in some cases many species fluctuate chaotically and a few-variable description becomes impossible. Yet in other cases, where the abundance fluctuations are concentrated on the focal species and those close to them on the interaction network, we show that such a description exists, even when the interactions with the surrounding community are not weak, and its effect on the focal species’ dynamics is nontrivial. We show that in many cases the time-dependent abundances of the focal species can be well-described by dynamical equations that explicitly model only the focal species abundances, with the effect of the surrounding community incorporated merely by changing the model parameters to effective ones. We give two different methods for achieving this, cast as approximations that become exact in two different regimes, depending on the focal species and their relation to the rest of the community. Both methods work surprisingly well in many of the cases that we check, with effective dynamics that are often very similar and sometimes indistinguishable from the true dynamics, even when the effect of the community on the focal species is significant.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"506 ","pages":"Article 111137"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143887904","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mapping agency in urban metabolism research. A systematic characterisation of urban-level resource-use assessment models based on levels of engagement with agents","authors":"Ehsan Ahmadian,&nbsp;Daniela Perrotti","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111140","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111140","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>For several years, industrial, social, and urban ecology have contributed to developing, testing, and validating city-scale modelling tools that help understand society-nature relationships through energy and material exchanges. These tools can track and represent metabolic processes from different perspectives while handling increasingly complex datasets. However, few studies have examined how urban metabolism models incorporate different forms of agency deployed by actors in resource management. Additionally, reviews comparing modelling approaches across disciplines in urban metabolism research remain limited. To address these gaps, this study explores whether and to what extent urban-level modelling traditions in industrial, social, and urban ecology can systematically represent how agents influence metabolic stocks and flows. First, a systematic literature review of urban metabolism studies focusing on computational and mathematical models is conducted across these three disciplines. Second, models are compared based on how they engage with the concept of “agency” and represent metabolic agents in the modelling process. Finally, a systematic characterisation of these models is provided, highlighting their differences and complementarities in addressing agency. The results show that MFA is the most comprehensive model, applied across all disciplines and engagement levels with nine different terms for “agents,” whereas SD, WB, CA, and EFA are the least comprehensive, limited to a single discipline and one agent term at one level. This characterisation provides a foundation for developing integrated decision-making frameworks for selecting and coupling models in future urban metabolism research.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"506 ","pages":"Article 111140"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143883144","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How are diameter growth, forest structure and carrying capacity related in tree populations?","authors":"Thiago Floriani Stepka ,&nbsp;Patrícia Povoa de Mattos ,&nbsp;Afonso Figueiredo Filho ,&nbsp;Sebastião do Amaral Machado ,&nbsp;Evaldo Muñoz Braz","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111141","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111141","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study modeled the diameter growth of <em>Araucaria angustifolia, Cedrela fissilis</em>, and <em>Ocotea porosa</em> as a function of age and analyzed how these factors are related to diameter distribution. This analysis was used to describe behavior in terms of age and lifespan, and also determined periods of technical growth stagnation for each species. Diameter growth was evaluated via partial trunk analysis using increment cores from 30 trees per species in six study locations in southern Brazil (totaling 480 cores), collected in proportion to diameter distribution. Twelve biological models were utilized to estimate diameter growth as a function of age of the species in the different locations. The Weibull probabilistic density function with three parameters was adjusted to represent the diametric structure and indicate carrying capacity. Distinct ages were identified in the different study locations, indicating successions in separate periods during the past as well as locations with the least alterations (oldest successions). The diameters at the technical age of stagnation and carrying capacity were found to be generally similar, demonstrating the relationship between diameter structure and diameter increment. Maximum vigor in the three species was found to occur at diameters considerably smaller than the maximum value, suggesting that attainment of significant ages and diameters may not fully reflect the inherent potential of all individuals within the species under study. The maximum diameter increment vigor in the species under analysis was observed during the early stages of development, and tended to diminish in the subsequent phases.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"506 ","pages":"Article 111141"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143876760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Stochastic disturbances and delays drive coexistence and extinction in competing populations","authors":"Tianyuan Chen ,&nbsp;Huayong Zhang ,&nbsp;Yihe Zhang ,&nbsp;Zhongyu Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111155","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111155","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The coexistence and extinction of competing populations are influenced not only by primary competing species but also by environmental stochastic disturbances, time delays, and secondary competing species. Based on the Lotka-Volterra model, this study establishes a stochastic population competition model with S-type distributed delays, incorporating the influence factor <em>q</em> of secondary species and the environment. Intrinsic and interspecific disturbances are represented using Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes and white noise. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations were conducted as follows: (1) A Lyapunov function was constructed to prove the existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution of the model, and conditions for global asymptotic stability were derived based on Markov semigroup theory. (2) Under low-intensity stochastic disturbances, the population with stronger competitiveness increased in size, while the weaker population tended toward extinction. When there was no difference in competitive strength, both populations could coexist in the long term; Under medium-intensity disturbances, coexistence and extinction exhibited complex patterns; Under high-intensity disturbances, randomness became the dominant factor, leading to rapid population declines, abnormal fluctuations, and eventual extinction. Nevertheless, competitiveness and time delays further complicated population dynamics; Time delays alleviated population fluctuations and promoted system stability under low-intensity disturbances. However, under higher disturbances, they initially amplified fluctuations and introduced periodic dynamics but ultimately helped stabilize the system; The influence factor <em>q</em> moderated population fluctuations and improved the survival conditions of weaker populations under low-intensity disturbances but showed diminished effects under medium- and high-intensity disturbances. This study enhances the understanding of coexistence and extinction mechanisms in competing populations, offering significant insights into ecosystem management and conservation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"506 ","pages":"Article 111155"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143873209","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Elasmobranch vulnerability to global warming: insights from bioenergetic modelling of catsharks under climate scenarios","authors":"Noémie Coulon ,&nbsp;Sophie Elliott ,&nbsp;Thomas Barreau ,&nbsp;Julie Lucas ,&nbsp;Emma Gousset ,&nbsp;Eric Feunteun ,&nbsp;Alexandre Carpentier","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111157","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111157","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ectotherms are especially vulnerable to global warming due to their temperature-sensitive metabolic processes, impacting survival and reproductive success. Elasmobranchs, with slow life histories and low reproductive rates, may face amplified risks. In this study, we investigated two catshark species with distinct life traits and distributions: the Small-spotted Catshark (<em>Scyliorhinus canicula</em>) and the Nursehound (<em>S. stellaris</em>). Using newly calibrated bioenergetic models, we assessed changes in growth, sexual maturity, offspring production, and population dynamics under two CMIP6 climate scenarios projected for 2100: SSP2–4.5 (Middle of the Road) and SSP5–8.5 (Fossil-fueled Development), comparing these to historical data (1994–2015). Survival rates for early life stages remained similar under historical temperatures (80 %) and SSP2 (83 %) but dropped sharply under SSP5 to 33 % for <em>S. canicula</em> and 23 % for <em>S. stellaris</em>. Under both SSP2 and SSP5<em>, S. canicula</em> showed slight delays in maturation, yet the proportion of mature individuals ultimately exceeded historical levels in SSP2. Conversely, <em>S. stellaris</em> experienced progressively delayed maturation with warming. In SSP5, reduced growth, reproduction, and survival caused a population crash for <em>S. stellaris</em>, suggesting potential extinction. Our results reveal contrasting climate impacts on these species, underscoring the risk for late-maturing, low-fecundity, and narrowly distributed species. This emphasizes the urgency of conservation strategies tailored to mitigate their vulnerability to global warming.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"506 ","pages":"Article 111157"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143873210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}