Ecological Modelling最新文献

{"title":"Plankton response to sudden polychlorinated biphenyls pollution on a Reservoir of North China based on AQUATOX model","authors":"Jinxia Yan ,&nbsp;Haijing Li ,&nbsp;Chuan Liu ,&nbsp;Chenshuo Liu ,&nbsp;Tao Xing","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110957","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110957","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Emergency management research on sudden organic pollution accidents in urban water sources is of great significance. In the study, AQUATOX, coupled water quality and water quantity based on food web, was implemented to simulate and predict the effects of sudden Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) pollution under different concentrations scenario on water quality and dominant biological populations in Panshitou Reservoir, China. The model was used to quantify how the biomass changes of the modelled taxa in the reservoir food web deviated from natural conditions due to varying concentration inputs of the PCBs. Also, no observed effect concentrations (NOECs) were derived using AQUATOX model. The results showed that the contents of DO, TN, TP and NH₄⁺-N increased slightly with the concentration increase of PCBs, and the comprehensive water quality indexes (WQI) decreased little. The biomass of dominant biological populations did not show significant changes in the previous week, but the changes gradually increased, and the ecological risk rose correspondingly. The NOEC levels of PCBs for primary producers, such as diatom, green algae, blue-green algae and cryptoalgae, were about 1.89μg/L, 0.66μg/L, 0.81μg/L and 0.45μg/L, respectively; consumers such as water fleas, planktonic predators, and oligochaetes were around 3.4μg/L, 2.6 μg/L, and 0.81 μg/L, respectively. Compared with benchmarks of NOEC from the PCB Residue Effects Database of USEPA, threshold concentration computed using AQUATOX model were generally of the same order of magnitude in Panshitou Reservoir ecosystem. Our findings indicated that ecosystem models could be a useful tool in the assessment of organic chemical sudden impact on reservoir ecosystems as a whole.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110957"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159370","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Response of California condor populations to reintroductions, reinforcements, and reductions in spent lead ammunition pollution","authors":"Bruce G. Marcot ,&nbsp;Nathan H. Schumaker ,&nbsp;Jesse D'Elia","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The California Condor (CACO; <em>Gymnogyps californianus</em>) is a critically-endangered apex scavenger with multiple reintroduction sites providing population reinforcement. Spent lead ammunition pollution in CACO food (i.e., carrion and gut piles) was most likely responsible for the decline of CACO populations in the twentieth century and continues to be the leading source of condor mortality. To aid condor recovery decisions for the California population, numbering approximately 200 in early 2024, we present results from a female-only, individual-based life cycle model. We simulated future CACO population size under each of 25 scenarios representing combinations of 5 levels of reintroductions of captive-bred CACO released in California, and 5 levels of lead reduction, projected over a 25-year forecast. Under the scenario of no change in current reinforcements or lead occurrence, CACO populations are projected to increase to 259 females; under the worst-case scenario of halting all reinforcements and no decrease in lead pollution, populations are projected to decline to 49 females; and under the best-case scenario of fully-enhanced reinforcements and complete elimination of lead pollution, populations are projected to increase to 569 females, with other scenarios having intermediate results. Our model predicted substantial improvements in population size even with incremental reductions in lead ammunition pollution, although we caution that population size is an incomplete measure of population health. Our maps of simulated foraging movements suggest a widespread expansion of condors throughout California and southwest Oregon under the best-case scenario, and major reduction with no expansion in distribution under the worst-case scenario. Our model serves as a framework for evaluating the efficacy of alternative recovery actions, and could be further enhanced to include economic and socio-economic tradeoffs associated with condor recovery.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 111002"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modelling past and future impacts of droughts on tree mortality and carbon storage in Norway spruce stands in Germany","authors":"Tim Anders ,&nbsp;Jessica Hetzer ,&nbsp;Nikolai Knapp ,&nbsp;Matthew Forrest ,&nbsp;Liam Langan ,&nbsp;Merja Helena Tölle ,&nbsp;Nicole Wellbrock ,&nbsp;Thomas Hickler","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110987","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110987","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Between 2018 and 2020, Central Europe experienced severe droughts. Leading to unprecedented increase in Norway spruce (<em>Picea abies</em>) tree mortality, which has not been reproduced in process-based forest or dynamic vegetation models (DVMs). In this study, we developed logistic regression models for drought-related Norway spruce mortality using climate and weather anomalies and mortality data from the forest monitoring plot network of the German crown condition survey. We integrated these models into the DVM LPJ-GUESS.</div><div>Under historical conditions (1998–2020), our models reproduce observed temporal and spatial mortality patterns. Future simulations (2021–2070) under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios show periodic increases in Norway spruce mortality. Even though the drought-mortality models reproduce past dynamics similarly well, they do not agree on the timing and magnitude of future drought-related mortality events. Including drought mortality in the DVM reveals substantial reductions in aboveground biomass in 2070 (e.g. -18 % in RCP2.6 and -36 % in RCP8.5 (mean across all simulations)), compared to baseline simulations without drought mortality. According to the model, drought-related reductions of potential harvest across Germany could accumulate to 310 million Mg of C (RCP2.6) and 447 million Mg of C (RCP 8.5) in the period from 2021 to 2070. Our study underscores the severe risk of large-scale future Norway spruce forest diebacks in Germany. Predictions of the magnitude and timing of such dieback events are, however, still highly uncertain. Nevertheless, such events should be considered in predictive modelling studies because they can have fundamental effects on forest carbon cycling and harvest.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110987"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143158984","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Increased terrestrial ecosystem respiration in China estimated by land-atmosphere coupling model","authors":"Tuanhui Wang ,&nbsp;Yue Zhang ,&nbsp;Abdusalam Turup ,&nbsp;Aiguo Zhang ,&nbsp;Longhui Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110988","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110988","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ecosystem respiration (Re), the sum of heterotrophic respiration and autotrophic respiration, is an important component of the carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystems, so accurate assessment of ecosystem respiration could help us to understand the mechanisms underlying the interaction between global carbon cycle and climate change. However, the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the Noah land surface model with multiple-physics options (WRF/Noah-MP) to simulate Re had not yet been evaluated in China. In this study, the WRF/Noah-MP model is used to simulate the respiration of terrestrial ecosystems from 2002 to 2022 with spatial resolution of 12 km ☓ 12 km in China. Results suggested that the R² of the Re simulated by WRF/Noah-MP was 0.58, which indicated that the WRF/Noah-MP model had good ability to simulate ecosystem respiration. During 2002∼2022, the annual average Re was about 5.56 Pg C yr⁻¹, with an increasing trend of 0.03 Pg C yr⁻¹. There were significant spatial and seasonal differences in China's Re. The average Re in summer accounted for about 50 % of the mean annual Re. As a consequence, the interaction between climate warming and terrestrial ecosystem respiration needs to receive more attention in the future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110988"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143158985","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Supporting conservation planning in a national biodiversity hotspot – Projecting species composition across a groundwater level gradient using a demographic forest model","authors":"Lucian Elles ,&nbsp;Jack Boyce ,&nbsp;Stefanie Henkel ,&nbsp;Hans D. Kasperidus ,&nbsp;Mathias Scholz ,&nbsp;Markus E. Schorn ,&nbsp;Michael Vieweg ,&nbsp;Christian Wirth ,&nbsp;Nadja Rüger","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110996","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110996","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Leipzig floodplain forest is a biodiversity hotspot of national significance. However, it is an urban forest heavily impacted by human activities, including the alteration of the hydrological regime preventing floods and leading to a lower groundwater level. In parts of the Leipzig Floodplain Forest, the restoration of a near-natural hydrological regime with regular floods and a raise of the groundwater level is considered. However, it is unclear whether raising the groundwater level in particular would ensure the long-term conservation of typical floodplain tree species such as European ash (<em>Fraxinus excelsior</em>) and pedunculate oak (<em>Quercus robur</em>), which are considered key species for biodiversity conservation. To investigate this question, we quantified the relationships between groundwater table distance and the growth, mortality, and recruitment rates for eight common tree species in the Leipzig Floodplain Forest using forest inventory data from 60 plots and a spatial groundwater model. Based on these relationships, we simulated the long-term dynamics of species composition with and without a raise of the groundwater table using the Perfect Plasticity Approximation (PPA) forest model.</div><div>Under current groundwater conditions, the model projected a substantial decline of the typical floodplain species ash and oak over 100 years. Field maple (<em>A. campestre</em>) and hornbeam (<em>Carpinus betulus</em>) benefited from this decline, as did the less flood-tolerant Norway maple (<em>A. platanoides</em>) on dry sites. When a raise of the groundwater level was simulated, ash and oak continued to decline. However, <em>A. platanoides</em>, which is not a typical floodplain forest species, was projected to be inhibited by a raise of the groundwater level. These results suggest that a raise of the groundwater table alone does not lead to the conservation of ash and oak, and hence the rich biodiversity associated with them. The study illustrates how ecological modeling can support the evaluation of biodiversity conservation strategies and provide the scientific basis for the successful transformation of this unique ecosystem towards a self-sustained biodiversity-rich urban forest.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110996"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143158991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Demystifying Monte Carlo methods in R: A guide from Metropolis–Hastings to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with biological growth equation examples","authors":"Dipali Vasudev Mestry,&nbsp;Amiya Ranjan Bhowmick","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110922","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110922","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) has emerged as a cutting-edge and versatile Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, widely adopted across various disciplines due to its superior computational efficiency compared to other MCMC techniques. Over the past few decades, HMC has gained significant traction. However, its implementation can pose challenges for practitioners, as it relies on concepts rooted in Hamiltonian dynamics from classical mechanics. Despite the development of modern Bayesian computation tools like <span><math><mstyle><mi>S</mi><mi>t</mi><mi>a</mi><mi>n</mi></mstyle></math></span>, which facilitate the application of HMC, the underlying mechanics may remain opaque to beginners. This article seeks to provide a clear and accessible introduction to HMC. We begin by reviewing the Metropolis–Hastings (MH) algorithm and its limitations, illustrated with simulated data. We then methodically explain the HMC algorithm through step-by-step simulation examples, showcasing its implementation in <span><math><mstyle><mi>R</mi></mstyle></math></span> software. Finally, we present a series of ecological case studies spanning a broad range of applications, including both single-species and multispecies dynamics. These studies demonstrate the implementation of HMC using the <span><math><mstyle><mi>r</mi><mi>s</mi><mi>t</mi><mi>a</mi><mi>n</mi></mstyle></math></span> package in <span><math><mstyle><mi>R</mi></mstyle></math></span>, applied to both simulated and real-world data. By adopting this pedagogical approach, we aim to help newcomers better understand and apply HMC to their research domains with confidence.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110922"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Simulating fishery dynamics by combining empirical data and behavioral theory","authors":"Jonas Letschert ,&nbsp;Birgit Müller ,&nbsp;Gunnar Dressler ,&nbsp;Christian Möllmann ,&nbsp;Vanessa Stelzenmüller","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111036","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111036","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding human decision-making in the context of complex fisheries socio-ecological systems remains one of the key challenges for ecosystem-based management. Agent-based models (ABM) are increasingly seen as one of the most promising methods to simulate human decision-making. In many fishery models, human behavior is highly simplified and reduced to an economic motivation, although scientific literature suggests that it is more multi‑facetted. Here, we present FISHCODE a spatio-temporal ABM for German fisheries in the southern North Sea. Our decision‑making submodel combines different behavioral motivations, i.e. habitual behavior, profit-maximization, competition, conformism, and planning insecurity. Using highly resolved information on fishing trips, we parameterized model parameters either straight from data or through pattern‑oriented modelling. Model validation showed that model outputs were in realistic ranges when compared to observed data. We applied FISHCODE to assess scenarios of two growing challenges to fisheries in the North Sea: expansions of offshore wind farms and increasing fuel prices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 111036"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159533","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Using the ODD protocol and NetLogo to replicate agent-based models","authors":"Volker Grimm ,&nbsp;Uta Berger ,&nbsp;Justin M. Calabrese ,&nbsp;Ainara Cortés-Avizanda ,&nbsp;Jordi Ferrer ,&nbsp;Mathias Franz ,&nbsp;Jürgen Groeneveld ,&nbsp;Florian Hartig ,&nbsp;Oliver Jakoby ,&nbsp;Roger Jovani ,&nbsp;Stephanie Kramer-Schadt ,&nbsp;Tamara Münkemüller ,&nbsp;Cyril Piou ,&nbsp;L.S. Premo ,&nbsp;Sandro Pütz ,&nbsp;Thomas Quintaine ,&nbsp;Christine Rademacher ,&nbsp;Nadja Rüger ,&nbsp;Amelie Schmolke ,&nbsp;Jan C. Thiele ,&nbsp;Steven F. Railsback","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110967","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110967","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Replicating existing models and their key results not only adds credibility to the original work, it also allows modellers to start model development from an existing approach rather than from scratch. New theory can then be developed by changing the assumptions or scenarios tested, or by carrying out more in-depth analysis of the model. However, model replication can be challenging if the original model description is incomplete or ambiguous. Here we show that the use of standards can facilitate and speed up replication: the ODD protocol for describing models, and NetLogo, an easy-to-learn but powerful software platform and language for implementing agent-based models. To demonstrate the benefits of this approach, we conducted a replication experiment on 18 agent-based models from different disciplines. The researchers doing the replications had no or little previous experience using ODD and NetLogo. Their task was to rewrite the original model description using ODD, implement the model in NetLogo and try to replicate at least one exemplary main result. They were also asked to produce, if time allowed, some initial new results with the replicated model, and to record the total time spent on the replication exercise. Replication was successful for 15 out of 18 models. The time taken varied between 2 and 12 days, with an average of 5 days. ODD helped to systematically scan the original model description, while NetLogo proved easy and quick to learn, but difficult to debug when implementation problems arose. Although most of the models replicated were relatively simple, we conclude that even for more complex models it can be useful to use ODD and NetLogo for replication, at least for developing a prototype to help decide how to proceed with the replicated model. Overall, the use of both, standard approaches such as ODD and easy to learn but powerful software such as NetLogo, can promote coherence and efficiency within and between different models and modelling communities. Imagine if all modellers spoke ODD and NetLogo as a common language or <em>lingua franca</em>.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110967"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159790","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A protocol for implementing parameter sensitivity analyses in complex ecosystem models","authors":"Criscely Luján ,&nbsp;Yunne-Jai Shin ,&nbsp;Nicolas Barrier ,&nbsp;Paul Leadley ,&nbsp;Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110990","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110990","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Systematic analysis of uncertainty is critical for consolidating ecosystem model projections. Sensitivity analysis is an essential step in understanding model uncertainty, but there are many challenges when dealing with complex models. One of these is related to the quantification of uncertainty in model input parameters, which is especially problematic when limited data leads to the use of arbitrary fixed ranges of variation to define parameter uncertainty. We show the drawbacks of this practice and propose an alternative approach based on the parameter reliability criterion. This criterion helps to classify the model parameters according to the source of information used to estimate their values and calculate the ranges of variability for each parameter used in a sensitivity analysis. Our proposed approach presented in this protocol is illustrated by implementing a sensitivity analysis of the OSMOSE marine ecosystem modelling platform applied to the northern Peru Current ecosystem. We compare the results from the sensitivity analysis based on the parameter reliability criterion with those obtained using fixed ranges of variation. We find that using arbitrary uncertainty ranges can produce different conclusions compared to alternative approaches, such as the one based on the reliability of the parameters. The parameter reliability criterion can be helpful in situations where direct quantification of uncertainty in model inputs is not available.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110990"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143158983","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ubi es, room to roam? Extension of the LPB-RAP model capabilities for potential habitat analysis","authors":"Sonja Holler ,&nbsp;Kimberly R. Hall ,&nbsp;Bronwyn Rayfield ,&nbsp;Galo Zapata-Ríos ,&nbsp;Daniel Kübler ,&nbsp;Olaf Conrad ,&nbsp;Oliver Schmitz ,&nbsp;Carmelo Bonannella ,&nbsp;Tomislav Hengl ,&nbsp;Jürgen Böhner ,&nbsp;Sven Günter ,&nbsp;Melvin Lippe","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Anthropocene presents challenges for preserving and restoring ecosystems in human-altered landscapes. Policy development and landscape planning must consider long-term developments to maintain and restore functional ecosystems, ideally by using wildlife umbrella species as proxies. Forest and Landscape Restoration (FLR) aims to support both environmental and human well-being. However, the impact of FLR on wildlife umbrella species and their movement potential should be assessed in its potential magnitude for effective conservation.</div><div>For this purpose, we introduce the LPB-RAP model expanded for potential habitat analysis in smallholder-dominated forest landscapes. It focuses on ecosystem fragmentation and landscape connectivity using Circuit Theory-based methods. LPB-RAP, based on a Monte Carlo framework, enables comprehensive habitat analysis for different SSP-RCP and policy scenarios with a broad analysis spectrum for anthropo- and biosphere aspects. It simulates dichotomous landscapes with and without potential FLR for consideration in long-term planning horizons.</div><div>As an implementation example serves Ecuador's Esmeraldas province, using the Jaguar (<em>Panthera onca</em>) as a target umbrella species within an SSP2-RCP4.5 narrative. The simulation period covers 2018 to 2100 in annual and hectare resolution. The years 2024 and 2070 were chosen as probing dates for the extended habitat analysis.</div><div>Results indicate that an agroforestry-based FLR scenario to increase forest cover while benefiting forest ecosystems and people would only marginally improve the movement potential for female Jaguars due to their avoidance of human-disturbed areas. Additional measures, including habitat corridors, are needed to enhance movement potential amidst increasing habitat fragmentation and loss, including stakeholders of all scales.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 111005"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143158987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}