Ecological Modelling最新文献

{"title":"Structural differences across hydrological models affect certainty of predictions of nature-based solution benefits","authors":"Alanna J. Rebelo , Julia Glenday , Petra B. Holden , Shaeden Gokool , David Gwapedza , Peni Metho , Jane Tanner","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110940","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110940","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Quantifying uncertainty in hydrological modelling has critical implications for informing decisions around land-use/land-cover trade-offs and management and therefore is good practice. Different hydrological modelling tools commonly used in water resource management are known to produce diverse results. This uncertainty is frequently overlooked in both research and applied cases. The influence of structural differences in terms of water balance partitioning in different models (model fidelity) has particularly been neglected. This study aims to quantify the uncertainty resulting from hydrological model structural differences for a specific nature-based solution scenario: clearing of invasive alien trees from mountain catchments in a water scarce region of South Africa. Clearing of these trees and restoration to indigenous shrublands has been shown to make more water available in catchments by reducing evapotranspiration. However, questions of magnitude and spatial variation remain. The extent of the increase in water availability within a given catchment, the pathways through which this change occurs, and the spatial variability of benefits across landscapes need to be better understood. We perform a model inter-comparison study of five hydrological modelling tools applied to a case study, using the same input (forcing) data and catchment conceptualisation, with equivalent parameterisation. All five tools are frequently used to guide decisions in water resource management in South Africa. The models were all calibrated against the same streamflow observations, and all were found to produce satisfactory results in this regard. The nature-based solution of clearing invasive alien trees was predicted to increase mean annual streamflow by 2.66 Mm<sup>3</sup> on average, but with considerable uncertainty. Mean annual streamflow estimates varied by 16.1 Mm<sup>3</sup> among models under this scenario (126.7-142.8 Mm<sup>3</sup>, 12 % of mean annual streamflow). In terms of spatial variability, modelling tools all simulated a streamflow increase (0.4-1.0 %) when invasive alien trees were cleared from the riparian zones instead of the uplands, again with uncertainty (121.4-141.1 Mm<sup>3</sup>, 15 % of mean annual streamflow). For all of the models, the main water balance component accounting for these streamflow changes was evapotranspiration. However, the pathway for this reduced evapotranspiration differed among models. For some models, canopy interception was the primary driver of the decreased evapotranspiration with invasive alien tree clearing, while for others it was soil and groundwater controls. This raises the age-old concern around equifinality in hydrological modelling in data scarce catchments, i.e. getting the right result for different reasons, and highlights the need for additional hydrological process data for resolution. We recommend the best practice of trying to estimate the uncertainty arising from structural differences i","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110940"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ecological role of marine mammals in the Magellan Strait: Insights from trophic modeling","authors":"Daniela Haro ,&nbsp;Fabio A. Labra ,&nbsp;Sergio Neira ,&nbsp;Juan Carlos Hernández-Padilla ,&nbsp;Francisco Arreguín-Sánchez","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110944","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110944","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Predators, such as marine mammals, impact the structure and functioning of marine communities. Due to their energy requirements, the wide variety of prey and the diversity of ecological niches they occupy, these organisms exert effects on diverse ecosystems. To evaluate the ecological role and trophic impact of the marine mammals in the Magellan Strait, Chile, we built a food web model using the Ecopath software. In this system, marine mammals occupied the third and fourth trophic levels and fed on prey from 20 functional groups, from zooplankton (i.e., sei whales, dolphins) to sea lions and seabirds (i.e., killer whales). Killer whales played the ecological role of key species in this ecosystem, potentially controlling the biomass of large predators and explaining 100 % of their mortality caused by predation. This potential control favored a biomass increase of fish such as salmon (52 % of their biomass), silverside (45 %) and Patagonian robalo (42 %). South American sea lions had a high trophic impact on the ecosystem groups’ biomass, being a significant predator of salmon (76 % mortality). The results support the hypothesis that humpback whales are the main consumer of Fuegian sprats and squat lobsters, with 43 % and 40.7 % of the total prey consumption, respectively. Trophic generality significantly and directly correlated with the trophic level of consumers (t = 5.92; r = 0.78, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.001), demonstrating that high trophic level organisms feed on a greater prey diversity. Trophic vulnerability and trophic level presented a significant inverse correlation (s = 3883.2; ρ = -0.69; <em>p</em> &lt; 0.001), indicating that functional groups at higher trophic levels had either few or no predators in the Magellan Strait ecosystem. The results do not allow us to conclude that higher trophic-level organisms have a greater impact on the food web. We suggest that the trophic impact is related to multiple factors like predator biomass, feeding habits and prey biomass consumption in a particular system. This study is the first model to evaluate the ecological role of marine mammals in the food web of the Magellan Strait, Chile.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110944"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Plankton response to sudden polychlorinated biphenyls pollution on a Reservoir of North China based on AQUATOX model","authors":"Jinxia Yan ,&nbsp;Haijing Li ,&nbsp;Chuan Liu ,&nbsp;Chenshuo Liu ,&nbsp;Tao Xing","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110957","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110957","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Emergency management research on sudden organic pollution accidents in urban water sources is of great significance. In the study, AQUATOX, coupled water quality and water quantity based on food web, was implemented to simulate and predict the effects of sudden Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) pollution under different concentrations scenario on water quality and dominant biological populations in Panshitou Reservoir, China. The model was used to quantify how the biomass changes of the modelled taxa in the reservoir food web deviated from natural conditions due to varying concentration inputs of the PCBs. Also, no observed effect concentrations (NOECs) were derived using AQUATOX model. The results showed that the contents of DO, TN, TP and NH₄⁺-N increased slightly with the concentration increase of PCBs, and the comprehensive water quality indexes (WQI) decreased little. The biomass of dominant biological populations did not show significant changes in the previous week, but the changes gradually increased, and the ecological risk rose correspondingly. The NOEC levels of PCBs for primary producers, such as diatom, green algae, blue-green algae and cryptoalgae, were about 1.89μg/L, 0.66μg/L, 0.81μg/L and 0.45μg/L, respectively; consumers such as water fleas, planktonic predators, and oligochaetes were around 3.4μg/L, 2.6 μg/L, and 0.81 μg/L, respectively. Compared with benchmarks of NOEC from the PCB Residue Effects Database of USEPA, threshold concentration computed using AQUATOX model were generally of the same order of magnitude in Panshitou Reservoir ecosystem. Our findings indicated that ecosystem models could be a useful tool in the assessment of organic chemical sudden impact on reservoir ecosystems as a whole.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110957"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159370","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Response of California condor populations to reintroductions, reinforcements, and reductions in spent lead ammunition pollution","authors":"Bruce G. Marcot ,&nbsp;Nathan H. Schumaker ,&nbsp;Jesse D'Elia","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The California Condor (CACO; <em>Gymnogyps californianus</em>) is a critically-endangered apex scavenger with multiple reintroduction sites providing population reinforcement. Spent lead ammunition pollution in CACO food (i.e., carrion and gut piles) was most likely responsible for the decline of CACO populations in the twentieth century and continues to be the leading source of condor mortality. To aid condor recovery decisions for the California population, numbering approximately 200 in early 2024, we present results from a female-only, individual-based life cycle model. We simulated future CACO population size under each of 25 scenarios representing combinations of 5 levels of reintroductions of captive-bred CACO released in California, and 5 levels of lead reduction, projected over a 25-year forecast. Under the scenario of no change in current reinforcements or lead occurrence, CACO populations are projected to increase to 259 females; under the worst-case scenario of halting all reinforcements and no decrease in lead pollution, populations are projected to decline to 49 females; and under the best-case scenario of fully-enhanced reinforcements and complete elimination of lead pollution, populations are projected to increase to 569 females, with other scenarios having intermediate results. Our model predicted substantial improvements in population size even with incremental reductions in lead ammunition pollution, although we caution that population size is an incomplete measure of population health. Our maps of simulated foraging movements suggest a widespread expansion of condors throughout California and southwest Oregon under the best-case scenario, and major reduction with no expansion in distribution under the worst-case scenario. Our model serves as a framework for evaluating the efficacy of alternative recovery actions, and could be further enhanced to include economic and socio-economic tradeoffs associated with condor recovery.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 111002"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modelling past and future impacts of droughts on tree mortality and carbon storage in Norway spruce stands in Germany","authors":"Tim Anders ,&nbsp;Jessica Hetzer ,&nbsp;Nikolai Knapp ,&nbsp;Matthew Forrest ,&nbsp;Liam Langan ,&nbsp;Merja Helena Tölle ,&nbsp;Nicole Wellbrock ,&nbsp;Thomas Hickler","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110987","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110987","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Between 2018 and 2020, Central Europe experienced severe droughts. Leading to unprecedented increase in Norway spruce (<em>Picea abies</em>) tree mortality, which has not been reproduced in process-based forest or dynamic vegetation models (DVMs). In this study, we developed logistic regression models for drought-related Norway spruce mortality using climate and weather anomalies and mortality data from the forest monitoring plot network of the German crown condition survey. We integrated these models into the DVM LPJ-GUESS.</div><div>Under historical conditions (1998–2020), our models reproduce observed temporal and spatial mortality patterns. Future simulations (2021–2070) under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios show periodic increases in Norway spruce mortality. Even though the drought-mortality models reproduce past dynamics similarly well, they do not agree on the timing and magnitude of future drought-related mortality events. Including drought mortality in the DVM reveals substantial reductions in aboveground biomass in 2070 (e.g. -18 % in RCP2.6 and -36 % in RCP8.5 (mean across all simulations)), compared to baseline simulations without drought mortality. According to the model, drought-related reductions of potential harvest across Germany could accumulate to 310 million Mg of C (RCP2.6) and 447 million Mg of C (RCP 8.5) in the period from 2021 to 2070. Our study underscores the severe risk of large-scale future Norway spruce forest diebacks in Germany. Predictions of the magnitude and timing of such dieback events are, however, still highly uncertain. Nevertheless, such events should be considered in predictive modelling studies because they can have fundamental effects on forest carbon cycling and harvest.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110987"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143158984","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Increased terrestrial ecosystem respiration in China estimated by land-atmosphere coupling model","authors":"Tuanhui Wang ,&nbsp;Yue Zhang ,&nbsp;Abdusalam Turup ,&nbsp;Aiguo Zhang ,&nbsp;Longhui Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110988","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110988","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ecosystem respiration (Re), the sum of heterotrophic respiration and autotrophic respiration, is an important component of the carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystems, so accurate assessment of ecosystem respiration could help us to understand the mechanisms underlying the interaction between global carbon cycle and climate change. However, the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the Noah land surface model with multiple-physics options (WRF/Noah-MP) to simulate Re had not yet been evaluated in China. In this study, the WRF/Noah-MP model is used to simulate the respiration of terrestrial ecosystems from 2002 to 2022 with spatial resolution of 12 km ☓ 12 km in China. Results suggested that the R² of the Re simulated by WRF/Noah-MP was 0.58, which indicated that the WRF/Noah-MP model had good ability to simulate ecosystem respiration. During 2002∼2022, the annual average Re was about 5.56 Pg C yr⁻¹, with an increasing trend of 0.03 Pg C yr⁻¹. There were significant spatial and seasonal differences in China's Re. The average Re in summer accounted for about 50 % of the mean annual Re. As a consequence, the interaction between climate warming and terrestrial ecosystem respiration needs to receive more attention in the future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110988"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143158985","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Supporting conservation planning in a national biodiversity hotspot – Projecting species composition across a groundwater level gradient using a demographic forest model","authors":"Lucian Elles ,&nbsp;Jack Boyce ,&nbsp;Stefanie Henkel ,&nbsp;Hans D. Kasperidus ,&nbsp;Mathias Scholz ,&nbsp;Markus E. Schorn ,&nbsp;Michael Vieweg ,&nbsp;Christian Wirth ,&nbsp;Nadja Rüger","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110996","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110996","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Leipzig floodplain forest is a biodiversity hotspot of national significance. However, it is an urban forest heavily impacted by human activities, including the alteration of the hydrological regime preventing floods and leading to a lower groundwater level. In parts of the Leipzig Floodplain Forest, the restoration of a near-natural hydrological regime with regular floods and a raise of the groundwater level is considered. However, it is unclear whether raising the groundwater level in particular would ensure the long-term conservation of typical floodplain tree species such as European ash (<em>Fraxinus excelsior</em>) and pedunculate oak (<em>Quercus robur</em>), which are considered key species for biodiversity conservation. To investigate this question, we quantified the relationships between groundwater table distance and the growth, mortality, and recruitment rates for eight common tree species in the Leipzig Floodplain Forest using forest inventory data from 60 plots and a spatial groundwater model. Based on these relationships, we simulated the long-term dynamics of species composition with and without a raise of the groundwater table using the Perfect Plasticity Approximation (PPA) forest model.</div><div>Under current groundwater conditions, the model projected a substantial decline of the typical floodplain species ash and oak over 100 years. Field maple (<em>A. campestre</em>) and hornbeam (<em>Carpinus betulus</em>) benefited from this decline, as did the less flood-tolerant Norway maple (<em>A. platanoides</em>) on dry sites. When a raise of the groundwater level was simulated, ash and oak continued to decline. However, <em>A. platanoides</em>, which is not a typical floodplain forest species, was projected to be inhibited by a raise of the groundwater level. These results suggest that a raise of the groundwater table alone does not lead to the conservation of ash and oak, and hence the rich biodiversity associated with them. The study illustrates how ecological modeling can support the evaluation of biodiversity conservation strategies and provide the scientific basis for the successful transformation of this unique ecosystem towards a self-sustained biodiversity-rich urban forest.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110996"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143158991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Demystifying Monte Carlo methods in R: A guide from Metropolis–Hastings to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with biological growth equation examples","authors":"Dipali Vasudev Mestry,&nbsp;Amiya Ranjan Bhowmick","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110922","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110922","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) has emerged as a cutting-edge and versatile Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, widely adopted across various disciplines due to its superior computational efficiency compared to other MCMC techniques. Over the past few decades, HMC has gained significant traction. However, its implementation can pose challenges for practitioners, as it relies on concepts rooted in Hamiltonian dynamics from classical mechanics. Despite the development of modern Bayesian computation tools like <span><math><mstyle><mi>S</mi><mi>t</mi><mi>a</mi><mi>n</mi></mstyle></math></span>, which facilitate the application of HMC, the underlying mechanics may remain opaque to beginners. This article seeks to provide a clear and accessible introduction to HMC. We begin by reviewing the Metropolis–Hastings (MH) algorithm and its limitations, illustrated with simulated data. We then methodically explain the HMC algorithm through step-by-step simulation examples, showcasing its implementation in <span><math><mstyle><mi>R</mi></mstyle></math></span> software. Finally, we present a series of ecological case studies spanning a broad range of applications, including both single-species and multispecies dynamics. These studies demonstrate the implementation of HMC using the <span><math><mstyle><mi>r</mi><mi>s</mi><mi>t</mi><mi>a</mi><mi>n</mi></mstyle></math></span> package in <span><math><mstyle><mi>R</mi></mstyle></math></span>, applied to both simulated and real-world data. By adopting this pedagogical approach, we aim to help newcomers better understand and apply HMC to their research domains with confidence.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110922"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Simulating fishery dynamics by combining empirical data and behavioral theory","authors":"Jonas Letschert ,&nbsp;Birgit Müller ,&nbsp;Gunnar Dressler ,&nbsp;Christian Möllmann ,&nbsp;Vanessa Stelzenmüller","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111036","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111036","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding human decision-making in the context of complex fisheries socio-ecological systems remains one of the key challenges for ecosystem-based management. Agent-based models (ABM) are increasingly seen as one of the most promising methods to simulate human decision-making. In many fishery models, human behavior is highly simplified and reduced to an economic motivation, although scientific literature suggests that it is more multi‑facetted. Here, we present FISHCODE a spatio-temporal ABM for German fisheries in the southern North Sea. Our decision‑making submodel combines different behavioral motivations, i.e. habitual behavior, profit-maximization, competition, conformism, and planning insecurity. Using highly resolved information on fishing trips, we parameterized model parameters either straight from data or through pattern‑oriented modelling. Model validation showed that model outputs were in realistic ranges when compared to observed data. We applied FISHCODE to assess scenarios of two growing challenges to fisheries in the North Sea: expansions of offshore wind farms and increasing fuel prices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 111036"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159533","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Using the ODD protocol and NetLogo to replicate agent-based models","authors":"Volker Grimm ,&nbsp;Uta Berger ,&nbsp;Justin M. Calabrese ,&nbsp;Ainara Cortés-Avizanda ,&nbsp;Jordi Ferrer ,&nbsp;Mathias Franz ,&nbsp;Jürgen Groeneveld ,&nbsp;Florian Hartig ,&nbsp;Oliver Jakoby ,&nbsp;Roger Jovani ,&nbsp;Stephanie Kramer-Schadt ,&nbsp;Tamara Münkemüller ,&nbsp;Cyril Piou ,&nbsp;L.S. Premo ,&nbsp;Sandro Pütz ,&nbsp;Thomas Quintaine ,&nbsp;Christine Rademacher ,&nbsp;Nadja Rüger ,&nbsp;Amelie Schmolke ,&nbsp;Jan C. Thiele ,&nbsp;Steven F. Railsback","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110967","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110967","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Replicating existing models and their key results not only adds credibility to the original work, it also allows modellers to start model development from an existing approach rather than from scratch. New theory can then be developed by changing the assumptions or scenarios tested, or by carrying out more in-depth analysis of the model. However, model replication can be challenging if the original model description is incomplete or ambiguous. Here we show that the use of standards can facilitate and speed up replication: the ODD protocol for describing models, and NetLogo, an easy-to-learn but powerful software platform and language for implementing agent-based models. To demonstrate the benefits of this approach, we conducted a replication experiment on 18 agent-based models from different disciplines. The researchers doing the replications had no or little previous experience using ODD and NetLogo. Their task was to rewrite the original model description using ODD, implement the model in NetLogo and try to replicate at least one exemplary main result. They were also asked to produce, if time allowed, some initial new results with the replicated model, and to record the total time spent on the replication exercise. Replication was successful for 15 out of 18 models. The time taken varied between 2 and 12 days, with an average of 5 days. ODD helped to systematically scan the original model description, while NetLogo proved easy and quick to learn, but difficult to debug when implementation problems arose. Although most of the models replicated were relatively simple, we conclude that even for more complex models it can be useful to use ODD and NetLogo for replication, at least for developing a prototype to help decide how to proceed with the replicated model. Overall, the use of both, standard approaches such as ODD and easy to learn but powerful software such as NetLogo, can promote coherence and efficiency within and between different models and modelling communities. Imagine if all modellers spoke ODD and NetLogo as a common language or <em>lingua franca</em>.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110967"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159790","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}