Ecological Modelling最新文献

{"title":"Ideotype map research based on a crop model in the context of a climatic gradient","authors":"Diariétou Sambakhé ,&nbsp;Eric Gozé ,&nbsp;Jean-Noël Bacro ,&nbsp;Michael Dingkuhn ,&nbsp;Myriam Adam ,&nbsp;Malick Ndiaye ,&nbsp;Bertrand Muller ,&nbsp;Lauriane Rouan","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110840","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110840","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Due to increasing climate uncertainties, optimizing plant traits is essential for sustainable agriculture. This article presents an approach that combines advanced modelling techniques to identify optimal plant traits under various agro-environmental conditions. By integrating a crop model, a climate generator, and our PEQI algorithm (Profile Expected Quantile Improvement), our method aims to create ideotype maps tailored to specific regions.</p><p>We use the SAMARA model (Simulator of crop trait Assembly, MAnagement Response, and Adaptation), calibrated with trials carried in Sahel on a set of local varieties, to simulate crop growth in diverse environments. The PEQI algorithm adjusts varietal parameters to maximize expected yield, defining precise selection objectives known as ideotypes, which are particularly important in regions with irregular rainfall patterns like the Sahel.</p><p>With the PEQI algorithm based on a kriging metamodel, we ensure effective adaptation to spatially variable environments. By leveraging a climate generator to simulate meteorological variability, our integrated approach optimizes crop yields in regions such as Senegal, southern Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea-Bissau. The outcome is an ideotype map for sorghum, providing breeders with a robust decision-support tool to enhance crop performance amidst climate uncertainty.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"498 ","pages":"Article 110840"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030438002400228X/pdfft?md5=9280a5787f4e0caf28ab6f830d79b02d&pid=1-s2.0-S030438002400228X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142167949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing between-individual variability in bioenergetics modelling: Opportunities, challenges, and potential applications","authors":"Miquel Palmer ,&nbsp;Irene Moro-Martínez ,&nbsp;Joaquim Tomàs-Ferrer ,&nbsp;Amalia Grau ,&nbsp;María Dolores López-Belluga ,&nbsp;Marine Herlin ,&nbsp;Orestis Stavrakidis-Zachou ,&nbsp;Andrea Campos-Candela","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110848","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110848","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Population dynamics is influenced by between-individual variability. Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory is an appealing framework for assessing such a variability, yet DEB parameters have rarely been estimated at the individual level. Bayesian hierarchical models show promise for inferring individual variability in DEB parameters, thought computational challenges have limited their use due to the need to solve differential equations. Timely, Stan has emerged as a general-purpose statistical tool for fitting dynamic models. This paper introduces an analytical strategy using Bayesian parametric inference and hierarchical modelling to estimate individual-specific DEB parameters. Two biologically relevant DEB parameters were successfully estimated for 69 Gilt-head breams (<em>Sparus aurata</em>) with up to 11 measures of length and wet weight each. The estimated between-individual variability in these two DEB parameters explained well the observed patterns in length and weight at between- and within-individual levels. Moreover, data-simulation experiments highlighted the potential and limitations of our approach, suggesting that improved data collection could enable to increase precision and the number of DEB parameters that can be estimated at the individual level. This strategy can better represent between-individual variability in DEB parameters, which ultimately may improve forecasting of population dynamics after integrating DEB into population models.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"498 ","pages":"Article 110848"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380024002369/pdfft?md5=0adbfc25924935d61805ee282c99c481&pid=1-s2.0-S0304380024002369-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142163849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From known to unknown unknowns through pattern-oriented modelling: Driving research towards the Medawar zone","authors":"Ming Wang ,&nbsp;Hsiao-Hsuan Wang ,&nbsp;Tomasz E. Koralewski ,&nbsp;William E. Grant ,&nbsp;Neil White ,&nbsp;Jim Hanan ,&nbsp;Volker Grimm","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110853","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110853","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The metaphor of the Medawar zone describes the relationship between the difficulty of a scientific problem and the potential payoff of solving it. This zone represents the realm where questions offer high benefits relative to the effort required to address them. By harnessing the power of mechanistic modelling, scientists can navigate towards this zone, moving beyond known unknowns to discover unknown unknowns. This requires models to be realistic and reliable. Model usefulness, impact, and predictive power can be enhanced by achieving intermediate model complexity, where the trade-off between the realism and tractability of a model is optimised. To achieve these goals, we use the pattern-oriented modelling strategy (POM) to direct research into the Medawar zone by steering model structure towards intermediate complexity. We illustrate this strategy with a detailed conceptual process. Using example models from agri-ecological systems, we demonstrate how intermediate complexity can be attained through POM, and how pattern-oriented models of intermediate complexity that reproduce multiple patterns can uncover both known unknowns and unknown unknowns, which ultimately advances our understanding of complex systems and facilitates groundbreaking discoveries. In addition, we discuss the multidimensionality of the Medawar zone in the context of modelling philosophy and highlight the challenges and imperatives for achieving coherence in the modelling discipline. We emphasize the need for collaboration between end-users and modellers and the adoption of systematic modelling strategies such as POM.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"497 ","pages":"Article 110853"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380024002412/pdfft?md5=c40173e35822977290c5dbb033bae4a9&pid=1-s2.0-S0304380024002412-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142162714","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Real world data for real world problems: Importance of appropriate spatial resolution modelling to inform decision makers in marine management","authors":"Tanya G Riley,&nbsp;Beth Mouat,&nbsp;Rachel Shucksmith","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110864","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110864","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;p&gt;Effective management of marine ecosystems requires informed decision-making based on accurate, comprehensive and appropriate data. Mapping habitats can form an important part of these processes so that decision makers can ensure the pressures exerted by human activities can be assessed while considering the sensitivity of the environment. Predictive models can be utilised to understand the distribution of species and habitats (e.g. biotopes) without incurring the expense of wide scale surveys. If predictive models are used in decision-making care must be taken in interpreting model results. The spatial resolution at which habitat modelling is conducted can greatly influence the decision outcomes. Whilst national resolution habitat maps serve as valuable resources for informing overarching policy making, for development level decisions fine resolution habitat information is needed. This paper explores the importance of spatial resolution modelling in marine management decision-making processes, using four spatial resolutions (50 m, 100 m, 200 m and 500 m) to model the presence of a protected habitat, maerl beds, within the Fetlar-Haroldswick Marine Protected Area in the Shetland Islands, Scotland. Outputs were compared for model performance between the resolutions and area of modelled maerl bed coverage. Simulations of real-world marine activities, explore the magnitude of overlap attributable to varied spatial resolution models, with an emphasis on the presumed ‘need’ for management. This study shows the importance of considering spatial resolution in modelling outputs and highlights the challenges associated with using models to guide decision-making, direct pressures on protected habitats, and cumulative impacts. It carries significance for maximising economic opportunity while safeguarding marine features. For real-world applications coarse resolution data may suffice for strategic, large-scale decisions, but finer resolutions are imperative for consenting or managing individual marine activities. By emphasising the need for appropriate spatial resolution modelling, these findings contribute to the development of sustainable management strategies that are appropriate to the scale of the decision. Addressing the complexities of real-world decision-making and understanding the magnitude of spatial resolution required for the marine environment are a crucial principle that can also enhance and be applied to other disciplines including, terrestrial ecology, urban planning and the assessment of potential climate change impacts. Failing to model appropriately means that real-world pressures and impacts occurring on a finer scale then the available data may have their impacts over or underestimated, hindering effective governance. Whilst we are striving to meet our national and international obligations and objectives through effective marine governance, this paper highlights the challenges of real-world decision-making where data is not yet ","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"498 ","pages":"Article 110864"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380024002527/pdfft?md5=89b86d98ee5036458231a7707527f3c6&pid=1-s2.0-S0304380024002527-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142163985","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From formulae, via models to theories: Dynamic Energy Budget theory illustrates requirements","authors":"Sebastiaan A.L.M. Kooijman ,&nbsp;Michael R. Kearney ,&nbsp;Nina Marn ,&nbsp;Tânia Sousa ,&nbsp;Tiago Domingos ,&nbsp;Romain Lavaud ,&nbsp;Charlotte Récapet ,&nbsp;Tin Klanjšček ,&nbsp;Tan T. Yeuw ,&nbsp;Gonçalo M. Marques ,&nbsp;Laure Pecquerie ,&nbsp;Konstadia Lika","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110869","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110869","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>As sciences mature, they transition from observation and description to explanation and prediction. This transition is associated with qualitative changes in the way quantitative mathematical formulations are constructed and interpreted, resulting in a ‘theory’. Such transitions from phenomenology to theory are happening in biology but the heuristic framework involved is rarely articulated. We here describe how the use of models in research sets model requirements, using Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory to illustrate the more elaborate ones. We first make the distinction between mathematical formulae and models based on their relation to the abstract and real worlds. We then explain how the transition from models to theory affects model construction and parameter estimation, and discuss the concept of parameter estimation-in-context using the database <span>Add_my_Pet</span> on animal energetics. The transition comes with the need to develop auxiliary and meta- theory and to work with multiple datasets, implying constraints for the loss function that is used for parameter estimation. Finally, we discuss the extra requirements for general explanatory models: they need to be explicit on relevant general principles and to be embedded in a wider scientific context. We also discuss how we see theory’s relationship to observation and prediction change in the future as we use it to deal with theoretical and applied problems in biology.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"497 ","pages":"Article 110869"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380024002576/pdfft?md5=228e10c1f46a21cabb9e48e43ac61c14&pid=1-s2.0-S0304380024002576-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142162713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamics of Salmonellosis and the impacts of contaminated dairy products and environments: Mathematical modeling perspective and parameter estimation","authors":"Herman Trazias ,&nbsp;Jacob I. Irunde ,&nbsp;Moatlhodi Kgosimore ,&nbsp;Maranya M. Mayengo","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110862","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110862","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study proposes a system of non-linear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) based on a SIR-type epidemic model to explore the role that humans and dairy cattle play in the contamination process and the effects of contaminated dairy products and environments in salmonellosis dynamics. The driving force behind using a system of non-linear ODEs lies in their ability to accurately capture biological complexity, such as population interactions, which are inherently non-linear. The positivity of model solutions is checked to ensure their mathematical and biological compatibility. The Lyapunov stability theorem is used to examine the global stability of the equilibria states based on the value of a threshold parameter <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>, also known as the basic reproduction number, which is formulated using the next generation matrix approach. Parameter estimation and model fitting are done using the least squares method along with the salmonellosis incidence data from 1990 to 2020. The uncertainty and global sensitivity analysis are performed using the Latin hypercube sampling and partial rank correlation coefficients methods. The dynamics of <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub></math></span> along with model parameters responsible for contamination are explored using contour plots. The proposed model is simulated with a statistical range of 95% confidence interval to assess the reliability and precision of the estimates derived from the real data. The simulations are performed to explore the complex scenarios and forecast the dynamics of salmonellosis. The results show that the bacteria growth rate, ingestion rates of Salmonella typhimurium bacteria in contaminated dairy products and environments, shedding rates of Salmonella typhimurium into the environments by the infected humans and dairy cattle, and the harvesting rate of contaminated dairy products are directly proportional to <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>, meaning that they are responsible for increasing the severity of salmonellosis whenever they are increased, while the decay rates of Salmonella typhimurium bacteria are inversely proportional to <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>. Control measures such as hand hygiene, food preparation cleanliness, cooking food thoroughly, isolating sick and new animals, and training farmers on symptom recognition and reporting cases to medical staff are recommended to mitigate the severity of salmonellosis.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"497 ","pages":"Article 110862"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142151622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Paying colonization credit with forest management could accelerate the range shift of temperate trees under climate change","authors":"Willian Vieira ,&nbsp;Isabelle Boulangeat ,&nbsp;Marie-Hélène Brice ,&nbsp;Robert L. Bradley ,&nbsp;Dominique Gravel","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110813","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110813","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The northward migration of several tree species ranges is likely to lag behind climate change due to slow demography, competitive interactions, and dispersal limitations. These will result in a colonization credit, where suitable climate envelopes are left unoccupied, and extinction debt, where tree stands persist at unsuitable climatic locations. While the underlying mechanisms explaining the delayed range shift of forest trees have been investigated, few studies have focused on how management could overcome this lag. Here we extend a forest community state model derived from the metapopulation theory and validated with over 40,000 forest inventory plots, to formulate how forest management can accelerate the response of the boreal-temperate ecotone under warming temperature. We first complete the model equations to represent how four types of forest management may affect the transitions between four forest states: Boreal, Temperate, Mixed and Regeneration. We then simulated the potential of forest management to reduce colonization credit and extinction debt using two complementary approaches to measure the resilience and range shift of the boreal-temperate ecotone in response to warming temperature. Our simulations reveal that paying the colonization credit by planting temperate trees in a stand in Regeneration or Boreal state are likely to i) reduce the return time to equilibrium, ii) increase forest resilience, and iii) move the ecotone towards colder temperatures. Surprisingly, harvesting boreal trees in stands in Boreal or Mixed state were not effective to reduce extinction debt and provide colonization opportunities for temperate trees. Our results suggest that forest management related to planting actions could help the boreal-temperate ecotone keep pace with climate change. Future experiments are required to test these theoretical expectations and make operational recommendations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"497 ","pages":"Article 110813"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380024002011/pdfft?md5=ec1030242d2c3386b72325965c678165&pid=1-s2.0-S0304380024002011-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142137465","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Incorporating biodiversity impacts in land use decisions","authors":"Cindy G. Azuero-Pedraza ,&nbsp;Valerie M. Thomas","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110852","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110852","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We develop a framework for incorporating biodiversity impacts into land use optimization models. Using the countryside species–area relationship, six approaches to incorporating biodiversity are evaluated: constraint versus objective function, and with characterization factors, piecewise linear, or non-linear implementation. We also consider the underlying ethical assumptions of different options for biodiversity evaluation considering taxa and ecoregions. To explore the six approaches, we use a case study that considers both climate change mitigation and the biodiversity impact due to habitat loss. We find that the characterization factor approach underestimates biodiversity loss, while the piecewise linear approach somewhat overestimates. Utilizing two approaches: biodiversity protection as the objective, and biodiversity as a constraint allows the construction of a Pareto frontier for cost versus loss of species. In addition to minimum cost solutions and minimum biodiversity loss solutions, the integrated model allows to identify (1) solutions with improved outcomes, those better for biodiversity and with small changes on costs, (2) mechanisms the model uses to achieve the improved solutions, (3) trade-offs and (4) challenges.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"497 ","pages":"Article 110852"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380024002400/pdfft?md5=61889b147a6202e116f9834ce1884737&pid=1-s2.0-S0304380024002400-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142137504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modelling the spread of a novel endosymbiont infection in field populations of an aphid pest","authors":"Alex Slavenko ,&nbsp;Perran A Ross ,&nbsp;Luis Mata ,&nbsp;Ary A Hoffmann ,&nbsp;Paul A Umina","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110851","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110851","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Endosymbiotic bacteria are being increasingly considered in novel methods of suppressing pest populations and/or reducing their potential to vector viruses. Here, we develop a generic modelling approach to explore the potential impacts of endosymbionts on pest populations. The model is presented as a modular R package, <em>EndoSim</em>. We use it to model demographic changes in the green peach aphid (<em>Myzus persicae</em>), which has recently been transinfected with the facultative endosymbiont, <em>Rickettsiella</em>. This novel transinfection has deleterious fitness effects following transfer to <em>M. persicae</em>. We consider a range of scenarios including different temperatures, thermal response curves, plant-based transmission dynamics, introduction dates and initial introduction sizes to investigate conditions under which <em>Rickettsiella</em> is expected to suppress <em>M. persicae</em> populations. We show that impacts on field pest populations are influenced by endosymbiont transmission dynamics, which are temperature-dependent, as well as aphid population processes. Our modelling approach suggests <em>Rickettsiella</em> could be used as a potential biological control to suppress <em>M. persicae</em> in natural settings. Furthermore, it highlights critical information that is required to accurately estimate the likely efficacy of novel endosymbiont transinfections in aphid pest control.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"497 ","pages":"Article 110851"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380024002394/pdfft?md5=317c57388f0587a8575b82dd9ddb5c71&pid=1-s2.0-S0304380024002394-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142121906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying population resistance to climatic variability: The invasive spotted lanternfly grape pest is buffered against temperature extremes in California","authors":"Stephanie M. Lewkiewicz ,&nbsp;Benjamin Seibold ,&nbsp;Matthew R. Helmus","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110841","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110841","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Temperature time series data are a composition of average trends and stochastic variability that together shape population dynamics. However, models of temperature-dependent species often overlook variability, focusing solely on growth rates under average conditions. When models omit variability, they can inaccurately predict the dynamics that underlie the establishment of invasive pests sensitive to temperature fluctuations. Here, we conduct a stochastic modeling study of the spotted lanternfly (<em>Lycorma delicatula</em>), a univoltine grape pest, which has invaded grape growing regions of the eastern U.S. due to human transport, leading to frequent establishment of populations in urban and suburban areas. As the spotted lanternfly continues to be transported to new grape growing regions and climate change alters variability, it is vital to predict its establishment potential. Although it overwinters as diapausing eggs, experiments suggest that diapause is plastic and not necessary for survival. We developed a deterministic stage-age-structured partial differential equation model of diapausing and non-diapausing populations. We derived a new metric quantifying population resistance to climatic variability defined as the level of stochasticity that leads to negative growth compared to average conditions. We simulated growth rates and resistance to variability across a range of average temperature conditions and stochasticity. We then analyzed how variability and diapause interact with survival, fecundity, and development to affect population dynamics. Finally, we estimated establishment potential across all U.S. cities. Diapausing populations were typically more resistant than non-diapausing populations because diapause enhances overwintering egg survival during winter cold waves, while allowing accelerated development and increased fecundity during summer and fall heat waves. Establishment potential is especially underestimated in important grape growing regions of California if models of diapausing populations omit variability. By quantifying population resistance to climatic variability, we gain a fuller understanding of invasive species establishment in today's stochastic and changing climate.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"497 ","pages":"Article 110841"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142121907","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}