Ecological Modelling最新文献

{"title":"Balancing economics and ecology in ocean ecosystems: A bioeconomic predator-prey model","authors":"Khalid Outaaoui,&nbsp;Ilham Ait El Harch,&nbsp;Youssef EL Foutayeni","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111243","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111243","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study presents a game-theoretic model that links ecological dynamics with economic decision making in the context of Moroccan fisheries. Focusing on the interaction between European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) and Anglerfish (Lophius budegassa), the model captures predator–prey relationships and enterprise-level fishing behavior. By integrating differential equations with strategic optimization, we analyze how two competing fishing sectors FENIP and MIPROMER can maximize economic returns under biological constraints. The equilibrium solutions derived through Nash-based methods highlight scenarios where both profitability and ecosystem balance can be maintained. These results provide actionable insights for designing more adaptive and sustainable fisheries policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"508 ","pages":"Article 111243"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144524268","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How does shifting wood products between uses affect their carbon dynamics and climatic impacts? Leveraging MoSiR, a new carbon accounting tool","authors":"Lucas Moreau ,&nbsp;Evelyne Thiffault ,&nbsp;Gabriel Landry ,&nbsp;Jean-François Carle","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111236","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111236","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Achieving climate change mitigation targets set in international pledges requires identifying optimal strategies for forest management and wood utilization.</div><div>Our study quantified the carbon storage and emission dynamics of the forestry sector using Quebec (Canada) as a case study, focusing on wood products in service and in solid waste disposal sites, over an 80-year period using material flow analysis and a simple decay approach. We assessed carbon stock dynamics and climate change mitigation potential for a business-as-usual (BaU) scenario and seven alternatives. Mitigation potentials were determined by comparing the cumulative climatic effect, expressed as the radiative forcing of greenhouse gas emissions, of each alternative scenario relative to the BaU. These scenarios included variations in wood processing, recycling rates, durability enhancements, and solid waste disposal sites management to evaluate their effects on carbon storage and emissions. Modeling was performed with MoSiR, a new tool developed by Québec’s Office of the Chief Forester, simulating different wood product flows and emissions.</div><div>Although long-lived wood products provide substantial carbon storage benefits, they currently constitute only a small portion of the wood processing mix. Focusing solely on these products may therefore overlook the broader climate impact of the forestry sector. Our study highlights that the mitigation potential of wood products largely depends on a product mix that prioritizes durability and circularity. Such a mix extends carbon storage duration and reduces the demand for virgin materials, thereby lowering the climate impact of harvesting by reducing the total area disturbed. Although wood product decay is not traditionally a forest management concept, the fact that harvesting is conducted to produce wood products means that the associated GHG emission dynamics, especially those from solid waste disposal sites, should be part of foresters’ considerations. Our findings emphasize the importance of precise modeling of wood product decay and support policies aimed at reducing emissions from solid waste disposal sites, enhancing substitution effects, and prioritizing long-lived wood products.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"508 ","pages":"Article 111236"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144517961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"ForestScope: Comprehensive tool for analysing soil, climate, and stand data in forest ecosystems","authors":"Mahdi (André) Nakhavali ,&nbsp;Andrey Lessa Derci Augustynczik ,&nbsp;Anna Repo ,&nbsp;Elia Vangi ,&nbsp;Petr Havlík","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111251","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111251","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In environmental conservation and management, analysing soil, climate, and stand data within forest ecosystems is crucial for understanding ecological dynamics, projecting changes, and developing sustainable forestry practices. Often, these data are scattered and unintegrated, complicating their use in modelling and analysis. Current tools lack modular integration of soil, climate, and stand data at large and diverse NFI datasets like International Co-operative Programme (ICP) scale (12,000+ sites). ForestScope bridges this gap by automating harmonization of ICP’s Level I/II datasets, together with soil and climate data, which is essential for informed decision-making in forest management.</div><div>ForestScope introduces an open-source framework designed to systematically organize, extract, and harmonize fragmented soil, climate, and stand data from ICP datasets. It includes comparative analyses of International Soil Reference and Information Centre (ISRIC) and Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) soil datasets, and assessments of Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) climate models and Climatologies at High resolution for the Earth’s Land Surface Areas (CHELSA) against observational data, selecting HWSD v2.0 and CHELSA as optimal for ICP data gaps.</div><div>Additionally, ForestScope integrates a vegetation model enhancing National Forest Inventory (NFI) data processing, thus improving forest ecosystem modelling. This advancement deepens our understanding of forest dynamics and supports more effective management strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"508 ","pages":"Article 111251"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144501214","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Is carrying capacity useful for integrating humans into Earth system models? On the purposes and limits of modelling","authors":"Tilman Hartley","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111232","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111232","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>There are calls to better incorporate humans into Earth system models. As interdisciplinary research teams are assembled, this has led to interesting discussions about the purposes and limits of such models. In this perspective paper, I draw on a typology of Earth system models to discuss the limits of modelling, and look at how these limits might be affected by incorporating humans. For illustrative purposes, I look at a series of models of human population size as examples of the kinds of models that can be constructed. Two main types of model can be constructed for two different purposes: toy models are intended to elucidate a complex phenomenon and may use a simplified concept like carrying capacity for that purpose; on the other hand, forecast models intended for theory testing may require a more complex concept to better approximate observed reality. Many elements of observed reality are, however, unpredictable. And unlike other aspects of the Earth system, humans have both the capacity and the tendency to deliberately behave unpredictably, meaning that they often behave in ways that are by definition outside of any possible model. This paper therefore helps clarify why the human sciences have not yet produced a more complete model of human behaviour, why such a model might be impossible, and why the unusual unpredictability of human behaviour introduces new limits to Earth system models that incorporate humans.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"508 ","pages":"Article 111232"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144596244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A decade of mizer: A systematic review of advancements and applications of size spectrum modeling in aquatic ecosystems","authors":"M. Grazia Pennino ,&nbsp;D.J. Nachón ,&nbsp;D. Bamio ,&nbsp;M. Cousido-Rocha ,&nbsp;G. Delius ,&nbsp;F. Izquierdo ,&nbsp;A. Paz ,&nbsp;E. Abad ,&nbsp;M.A. Torres ,&nbsp;I. González Herraiz ,&nbsp;M.P. Sampedro ,&nbsp;I.M. Rabanal ,&nbsp;F. Velasco ,&nbsp;P. Verisimo ,&nbsp;Y. Vila ,&nbsp;S. Cerviño","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111241","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111241","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This systematic review examines the use of the <em>mizer</em> R package, a tool for multi-species size-spectrum modeling of marine ecosystems, over the past decade. We analyzed 43 publications, including peer-reviewed articles and academic theses, to highlight its contributions, strengths and limitations across various research domains. We grouped studies into five categories: fisheries management and policy, ecosystem dynamics and species interactions, methodological advances, climate change projections, and broad-scale ecological studies. Geographically, the majority of studies were concentrated in marine ecosystems, particularly in the North Sea and Haizhou Bay, China. Our visualizations, including maps, timelines, Sankey diagrams, and a scientific collaboration network, revealed strong international collaboration, with the UK, Australia, and the USA emerging as central hubs in the global research network. The <em>mizer</em> package has evolved through various extensions such as <em>therMizer, MizerShelf</em> and <em>MizerEvo</em>, broadening its application in studying climate impacts and eco-evolutionary dynamics. Overall, <em>mizer</em> has proven to be a valuable tool in advancing our understanding of aquatic ecosystems and informing sustainable management practices. Despite its widespread use in theoretical and exploratory studies, direct applications of mizer-derived strategies in real-world fisheries management remain limited, underscoring the challenges of integrating complex models into decision-making frameworks. We identify several opportunities to enhance mizer’s practical relevance, including the development of validation datasets and benchmarking protocols, comparative evaluation with other ecosystem models, structured sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, and incorporation of socio-environmental feedbacks. We also highlight key technical limitations, such as the absence of automated parameter optimization and the reliance on equilibrium-based model structure, which currently constrain its use in dynamic or data-limited contexts. Addressing these challenges will be critical for advancing the integration of size-spectrum modeling into ecosystem-based management and policy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"508 ","pages":"Article 111241"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144481079","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The critical challenge of nonstationarity in ecological modelling","authors":"Hsiao-Hsuan Wang ,&nbsp;Diogo Alagador","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111248","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111248","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"508 ","pages":"Article 111248"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144596246","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On the life of species: Mathematically modelling the taxon cycle","authors":"João P.G. Machado ,&nbsp;Vinícius P. de Oliveira","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111233","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111233","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The taxon cycle hypothesis provided a conceptual framework for the cyclical stages of geographic range expansion, habitat specialization, and eventual range contraction leading to species extinction. Despite its historical significance, the taxon cycle has remained a conceptual model due to the absence of a quantitative framework. This study bridges this gap by developing a comprehensive mathematical model that integrates population structure, adaptation, speciation, and biogeographical range mechanisms. This model is designed to offer an easy-to-use, consilient framework to be applied across taxa and biogeographical scales as a null model for general taxon dynamics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"508 ","pages":"Article 111233"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144470302","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Harnessing the power of categorical maps for spatial modelling – a case study for soil type using Maxent","authors":"Ingrid Ahmer,&nbsp;Bertram Ostendorf","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111096","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111096","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Many potentially useful environmental maps (e.g. of vegetation or soil type) exist in the form of categorical maps that partition the landscape using polygons or raster cells with categorical descriptions. However, the richness of this map content is often unrealisable in environmental modelling due to the data models for the categories being unable to reflect continuous change in the environment. The objective of this study was to derive continuous raster replacements for a categorical map that would allow its content to be used for environmental modelling. The case study demonstrates the development of soil layers as predictors for Maxent that are synthesised from a geological map of soil type combined with global rasters of soil properties. Using data fusion, the categorical soil map is first transformed into a set of discrete ordinal rasters by numerically quantifying the soil categories for each soil property. Uncertainty is then introduced by adding Gaussian noise. The method produced high-resolution soil property rasters that each incorporated the detailed local environmental knowledge embodied in the categorical map. The new predictors proved highly effective for the Maxent modelling task and also produced similar results when used with other species distribution modelling algorithms. This approach of synthesizing continuous predictors using a detailed categorical map as a guide is likely to be effective for a wide range of categorical maps in combination with Earth observation and related data products and provides a new method by which categorical map content can be effectively incorporated into environmental models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"508 ","pages":"Article 111096"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144469877","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Uneven future greening across the northern high latitudes: Regional responses to rising CO2","authors":"Katherine Power","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111193","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111193","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With polar amplification warming the northern high latitudes at an unprecedented rate, understanding the future dynamics of vegetation and the associated carbon-nitrogen cycle is increasingly critical. This study uses the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS 4.1 to simulate vegetation changes for a future climate scenario, generated by the EC-Earth3.3.1 Earth System model, with the forcing of a 560 ppm CO₂ level. Using climate output from an earth system model without coupled dynamic vegetation, to run a higher resolution dynamic vegetation standalone model, allows for a more in depth exploration of vegetation changes. Plus, with this approach, the drivers of high latitude vegetation changes are isolated, but there is still a complete understanding of the climate system and the feedback mechanisms that contributed to it. Our simulations reveal an uneven greening response. The already vegetated Southern Scandinavia and western Russia undergo a shift in species composition as boreal species decline and temperate species expand. This is accompanied by a shift to a carbon sink, despite higher litterfall, root turnover and soil respiration rates, suggesting productivity increases are outpacing decomposition. The previously barren or marginal landscapes of Siberia and interior Alaska/Western Canada, undergo significant vegetation expansion, transitioning towards more stable, forested systems with enhanced carbon uptake. Yet, in the previously sparsely vegetated northern Scandinavia, under elevated CO₂ temperate species quickly establish, bypassing the expected boreal progression due to surpassed climate thresholds. Here, despite rising productivity, there is a shift to a carbon source. The deeply frozen soils in central Siberia resist colonisation, underscoring the role of continuous permafrost in buffering ecological change. Together, these results highlight that CO₂ induced greening does not always equate to enhanced carbon sequestration. The interplay of warming, nutrient constraints, permafrost dynamics and disturbance regimes creates divergent ecosystem trajectories across the northern high latitudes. These findings illustrate a strong need for regional differentiation in climate projections and carbon budget assessments, as the Arctic’s role as a carbon sink may be more heterogeneous and vulnerable than previously assumed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"508 ","pages":"Article 111193"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144366241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Symbiotic evolution in regional green innovation ecosystems: A Lotka-Volterra model analysis of China's provincial","authors":"Qinwen Deng ,&nbsp;Yue Long","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111244","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111244","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The development of the regional green innovation ecosystem (RGIE) can boost the global economy and mitigate environmental risks. However, RGIE exhibits significant heterogeneity in actor interactions, resource allocation, and evolutionary pathways. This study integrates symbiosis theory to construct a tripartite RGIE framework involving the government (GOV), enterprises (ENT), and academic institutions (ACD), and applies the Lotka-Volterra model to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the symbiotic relationships of RGIE in 30 provinces in China. The findings reveal that: (1) The symbiotic relationships primarily present three patterns: mutualism, parasitism, and competition. GOV-ENT primarily exhibits mutualistic symbiosis, GOV-ACD primarily shows parasitism, and ENT-ACD predominantly demonstrates competitive symbiosis. (2) Mutualistic symbiosis can maximize the development of t RGIE, while parasitic and competitive symbioses may lead to system instability or insufficient innovation drive. (3) Regional resource endowments and institutional environments shape the symbiotic paths. Coastal areas are more likely to achieve mutualistic equilibrium due to market-based coordination, whereas central and western regions are trapped in parasitic lock-ins due to resource misallocation. Based on these findings, differentiated policy tools are proposed: implementing green patent revenue feedback mechanisms in mutually beneficial regions, promoting green performance-based agreements in parasitic regions, and designing resource quota trading markets in competitive regions. This study provides empirical support for the government in formulating precise green innovation policies through the interdisciplinary integration of ecological models and policy design, and offers insights for the global optimization of green innovation ecosystems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"508 ","pages":"Article 111244"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144338822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}