Ecological Modelling最新文献

{"title":"Spatial mechanistic modelling to simulate movements and contacts between wildlife and livestock in Southern Africa","authors":"Florent Rumiano ,&nbsp;Eve Miguel ,&nbsp;Victor Dufleit ,&nbsp;Pascal Degenne ,&nbsp;Cédric Gaucherel ,&nbsp;Hugo Valls-Fox ,&nbsp;Michel de Garine-Wichatitsky ,&nbsp;Edson Gandiwa ,&nbsp;Alexandre Caron ,&nbsp;Annelise Tran","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110863","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110863","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The open interfaces between protected areas and rural communal lands in southern Africa are characterized by semi-arid savannas where wildlife-livestock interactions vary in frequency and intensity. In a context of increasing anthropization of land and trans-frontier conservation, the multiplication of these interactions may facilitate human-wildlife coexistence such as competition for natural resources, livestock predation, crop destruction by wildlife, and/or the risk of pathogen transmission between wild and domestic species. To better understand potential contacts between domestic and wild animals at these wildlife/livestock interfaces, we developed a method combining remote sensing and spatial modelling to simulate the movements of African buffalo (<em>Syncerus caffer</em>) and domestic cattle (<em>Bos taurus, Bos indicus</em>). Satellite-derived maps of surface water and vegetation, the primary determinants of movement for these ungulate species, were integrated into a mechanistic and stochastic model of collective movements of individuals interacting according to group cohesion and alignment. This model allowed simulations of herd movements and the location of contact areas with their seasonal dynamics in space and time at the periphery of three national parks in Zimbabwe and South Africa. Model outputs were compared to Global Positioning Systems collar location data of 32 individuals (14 buffalo and 18 cattle). The modelled results show a high spatial and seasonal variability of contacts between buffalo and cattle in the three study sites, and a landscape scale correspondence between spatial extensions of the modelled and observed contact areas. These results illustrate the potential of spatial modelling combined with remote sensing to generically simulate animal movements and contacts at landscape scale while providing opportunities to explore the management of these wildlife/livestock interfaces through, for example, a further coupling with epidemiological modelling.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"498 ","pages":"Article 110863"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380024002515/pdfft?md5=ab2e862f133916433636fd8c9ae5dc78&pid=1-s2.0-S0304380024002515-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142312266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Generating pseudo-absences in the ecological space improves the biological relevance of response curves in species distribution models","authors":"Joséphine Broussin ,&nbsp;Maud Mouchet ,&nbsp;Eric Goberville","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110865","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110865","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Species distribution modeling (SDM) is widely used to predict past and future species distributions. However, absence data for species can be scarce or even nonexistent, necessitating the generation of pseudo-absences (PA). Traditionally, PA are generated based on geographic locations where the species is not observed, but this method can introduce biases related to environmental heterogeneity across geographic areas. To address these limitations, recent methods have shifted towards generating PA in ecological space rather than solely in geographic space.</div><div>Here, we introduce a methodological framework that strengthens the integration of ecological principles into the generation of PA. Our approach constructs an n-dimensional array, with each dimension representing an environmental predictor, and fills this array based on the density of species presences. By subtracting the presence density from the maximum density, we construct a 'reverse niche' from which PA are generated. We tested and validated our method by successfully reconstructing the response curves of a virtual species, demonstrating the potential of ecologically-based PA to better capture spatial patterns and enhance SDM accuracy. This method is available in an open-access, user-friendly R package, named <em>EcoPA</em> intended to serve as a valuable tool for researchers working with species distribution modeling in ecology, conservation, and related fields.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"498 ","pages":"Article 110865"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380024002539/pdfft?md5=f1a7ed2ee3182a681430e372aee61e4f&pid=1-s2.0-S0304380024002539-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142312264","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Towards a comprehensive framework for providing management advice from statistical inference using population dynamics models","authors":"Mark N. Maunder","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110836","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110836","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>There has been substantial progress in fitting population dynamics models to data and this has greatly improved management advice in a variety of situations from exploitation to conservation. One of the major developments has been integrated analysis where multiple diverse data sets are fit simultaneously within the same model. However, issues such as model misspecification, unmodelled process variation, and data weighting make integrated analysis problematic. Here I provide a personal perspective on a framework for Model Development (FMD) based on the Center for the Advancement of Population Assessment Methodology (CAPAM) workshops and special issues, my own research, and other information. The FMD is motivated by fisheries stock assessment but is relevant to any form of population dynamics modelling or modelling in general. I provide an outline of the modeling framework and discuss the important topic of data weighting. The FMD starts with one or more conceptual models which are implemented as population dynamics models fit to data using a comprehensively researched Good Practices Guide (GPG). The models are evaluated, improved, and selected, based on a diagnostic “expert” system that has been rigorously developed using a comprehensive simulation analysis. The final models that are accepted in the ensemble are equally weighted (until the data weighting issue is fully resolved) to provide management advice. I also outline necessary future research.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"498 ","pages":"Article 110836"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380024002242/pdfft?md5=f55901d32bcffd20335eb825205d8370&pid=1-s2.0-S0304380024002242-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142238318","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Interpretability in the modeling spectrum: A conceptual framework and a quantification index","authors":"Estefania Aguirre-Zapata ,&nbsp;Hernan Alvarez ,&nbsp;Laura Lema-Perez ,&nbsp;Fernando di Sciascio ,&nbsp;Adriana N. Amicarelli","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110882","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110882","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper addresses the challenge of enhancing interpretability in the construction of mathematical models, which are essential for understanding and optimizing complex systems. The primary motivation lies in the need to establish a common conceptual framework across the modeling spectrum and to improve the interpretability of mathematical models, particularly in the context of first principles based semi-physical models (FPBSM). The importance of physical interpretation in models, especially within biotechnological or ecological processes, is highlighted, starting from the difficulty in establishing clear boundaries when searching for constitutive equations in such models, while maintaining a balance between fit accuracy and model interpretability. To meet this challenge, we propose a novel conceptual framework for addressing interpretability within the mathematical modeling spectrum and introduce a mathematical index for quantifying interpretability in FPBSM. Furthermore, the existing modeling methodology is extended by integrating interpretability as an additional criterion in determining the level of specification at which the search for constitutive equations should be stopped. The utility of the index and the proposed methodology is evaluated using a growth model of the grapevine moth (<em>Lobesia botrana</em>).</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"498 ","pages":"Article 110882"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142238319","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"New insights to be gained from a Virtual Ecosystem","authors":"Robert M. Ewers ,&nbsp;Jacob Cook ,&nbsp;Olivia Z. Daniel ,&nbsp;C.David L. Orme ,&nbsp;Vivienne Groner ,&nbsp;Jaideep Joshi ,&nbsp;Anna Rallings ,&nbsp;Taran Rallings ,&nbsp;Priyanga Amarasekare","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110866","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110866","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The myriad interactions among individual plants, animals, microbes and their abiotic environment generate emergent phenomena that will determine the future of life on Earth. Here, we argue that holistic ecosystem models – incorporating key biological domains and feedbacks between biotic and abiotic processes and capable of predicting emergent phenomena – are required if we are to understand the functioning of complex, terrestrial ecosystems in a rapidly changing planet. We argue that holistic ecosystem models will provide a framework for integrating the many approaches used to study ecosystems, including biodiversity science, population and community ecology, soil science, biogeochemistry, hydrology and climate science. Holistic models will provide new insights into the nature and importance of feedbacks that cut across scales of space and time, and that connect ecosystem domains such as microbes with animals or above with below ground. They will allow us to critically examine the origins and maintenance of ecosystem stability, resilience and sustainability through the lens of systems theory, and provide a much-needed boost for conservation and the management of natural environments. We outline our approach to developing a holistic ecosystem model – the Virtual Ecosystem – and argue that while the construction of such complex models is obviously ambitious, it is both feasible and necessary.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"498 ","pages":"Article 110866"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380024002540/pdfft?md5=a23b873f5c444d1dab355655f96cf2e7&pid=1-s2.0-S0304380024002540-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142238320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimating prey activity curves using a quantitative model based on a priori distributions and predator detection data","authors":"Daniel J. Herrera ,&nbsp;Daniel Levy ,&nbsp;Austin M. Green ,&nbsp;William F. Fagan","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110868","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110868","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The impact of predators on prey activity patterns is routinely analyzed through the largely qualitative approach of comparing overlapping activity density plots. While this approach offers some insight into predator-prey dynamics, it precludes the direct estimation of a predator's impact on prey activity. We present a novel model that overcomes this shortcoming by using predator detections and an ideal prey activity curve to quantify the impact of predator activity on prey activity patterns. The model assumes that species strive to adhere to an ideal activity distribution and quantifies the degree to which a disturbance – in this case, a predator – prompts a departure from this ideal curve. We use spatially coincident camera trap records of mountain cottontail (<em>Sylvilagus nuttallii</em>), red fox (<em>Vulpes vulpes</em>), and coyote (<em>Canis latrans</em>) as a case study. We found that mountain cottontails limit their activity when red foxes are active, but do not alter their activity patterns to avoid coyotes. Critically, we also found that the model is sensitive to the a priori distribution used as an ideal activity curve. Therefore, preliminary testing of a priori distributions should be performed before running the model. This model improves our ability to quantify and predict predator-prey interactions as they pertain to activity patterns, but is presently limited to a single-predator system over a single active period.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"498 ","pages":"Article 110868"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142238317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A trait-based modelling approach towards dynamic predictions of understorey communities in temperate forests","authors":"Dries Landuyt ,&nbsp;Haben Blondeel ,&nbsp;Eline Lorer ,&nbsp;Michael P. Perring ,&nbsp;Kathy Steppe ,&nbsp;Kris Verheyen","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110873","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110873","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Understorey communities in temperate forests have often been ignored in the study of the dynamics of forest structure and function, while evidence for the importance of this biotic layer is accumulating. Scarcity in understorey data with a high temporal resolution, and understorey data types that do not match popular vegetation modelling concepts, have limited previous modelling attempts to empirical models that are hard to extrapolate to new environmental conditions. Here we introduce a new process-based modelling approach designed specifically for understorey communities, whose dynamics are generally characterised by changes in (species-specific) cover data, while species characterisation is largely based on plant functional trait measurements. By confronting the model to data gathered in a large understorey mesocosm experiment, we show that our model concept is promising, and is able to predict performance differences within a species. Predictions across species were found to be more challenging, and will likely require new data on understorey traits and processes. In particular, new data on understorey carbon assimilation rates, vegetative phenology, plant architecture and belowground processes, are needed to advance the field of process-based understorey modelling.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"498 ","pages":"Article 110873"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142238321","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How relevant are temperature corrections of toxicity parameters in population models for environmental risk assessment of chemicals?","authors":"Annika Mangold-Döring ,&nbsp;Willem B. Buddendorf ,&nbsp;Paul J. van den Brink ,&nbsp;Johannes M. Baveco","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110880","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110880","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Population models provide insights into population dynamics under diverse and untested chemical exposure scenarios, supporting their environmental risk assessment (ERA). In this study, we investigate the interplay of temperature and imidacloprid exposure on population dynamics using an Individual-Based Model (IBM) incorporating a dynamic energy budget (DEB) model for population dynamics and toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models of the General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) framework to predict toxicity effects. For this, we tested different model configurations, where i) only the DEB parameters are corrected for temperature, as is common practice, and ii) also the TKTD parameters of the GUTS model are corrected for temperature. In doing so, we aim to evaluate the importance of temperature corrections in the GUTS model within an IBM framework. As expected, increased temperature amplitudes increase the range of simulated population sizes, and chemical exposure reduces the maximum population size. The combined effect of correcting both the DEB and TKTD parameters, however, yield an overall strongly negative effect on population sizes, particularly at lower temperatures. These results highlight the necessity of temperature-sensitive parameterization in population models for a protective risk assessment under the projected future climate conditions with increased temperatures and variability. Future considerations include incorporating local adaptations and acclimatization, particularly in different climate zones, to accurately interpret population model outcomes in the context of evolving environmental conditions. Such insights contribute to the refinement of ecological realism in ERA, enhancing the robustness of chemical risk management strategies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"498 ","pages":"Article 110880"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380024002680/pdfft?md5=b713d2e061884dfd4f26fd4d957175e6&pid=1-s2.0-S0304380024002680-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142232169","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate covariate selection influences MaxEnt model predictions and predictive accuracy under current and future climates","authors":"Clarke J.M. van Steenderen,&nbsp;Guy F. Sutton","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110872","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110872","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The performance and transferability of species distribution models (SDMs) depends on a number of ecological, biological, and methodological factors. There is a growing body of literature that explores how the choice of climate covariate combinations and model parameters can affect predictive performance, but relatively few that delve into covariate reduction methods and the optimisation of model parameters, and the resulting spatial and temporal transferability of those models. The present work used the citrus pest, <em>Diaphorina citri</em> Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Psyllidae), to illustrate how MaxEnt models trained on the insect’s native range in Asia varied in their predictions of climatic suitability across the introduced range when eight different covariate reduction methods were applied during model building. Additionally, it showed how model sensitivity varied across these different covariate combinations using three sets of independently validated occurrence points in the invaded range of the psyllid. Climatically suitable areas for <em>D. citri</em> differed by as much as two-fold between the best and worst-performing models in selected areas. Great care should be taken in the selection of the highest-performing predictor combinations and model parameter settings for SDMs, particularly in the case of invasive species where the assumption of environmental equilibrium is likely violated in the introduced range. Understanding how the predictive ability of SDMs can be influenced by the methodological choices made during the model building phase is vital to ensuring that ecological and invasion management programmes do not over- or underestimate climatic suitability and subsequent invasion risk.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"498 ","pages":"Article 110872"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380024002606/pdfft?md5=77eb91f07c3520753660b793352f63e9&pid=1-s2.0-S0304380024002606-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142229235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Predicting land use and environmental dynamics in Argentina's Pampas region: An agent-based modeling approach across varied price and climatic scenarios.","authors":"Diego O. Ferraro ,&nbsp;Felipe Ghersa ,&nbsp;Rodrigo Castro","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110881","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110881","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study, employing the AGRODEVS Agent-Based Model (ABM), systematically examined land use dynamics in Argentina's Pampas Region. Simulations under diverse scenarios highlighted the significant role of economic determinants, particularly crop price relationships, in influencing maize or wheat/soybean double cropping prevalence. Maize-dominated landscapes consistently achieved carbon sequestration goals, while wheat/soybean landscapes faced challenges, notably in ecotoxicity. Scenarios encompassed varying climatic conditions and soybean/maize price ratios, providing insights into the interplay shaping agricultural land use decisions among individual agents. The AGRODEVS model's robust performance underscored its effectiveness in integrating economic and environmental factors, contributing to a practical understanding of sustainable land use planning complexities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"498 ","pages":"Article 110881"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142229236","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}