Ecological Modelling最新文献

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Spatiotemporal patterns of gross primary productivity and the response to climate variability in the subtropical ecosystem of Eastern China 中国东部亚热带生态系统总初级生产力时空格局及其对气候变率的响应
IF 3.2 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-08-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111292
Ruixueer Wu , Zhiyong Cui , Binghao Jia , Hao Sun , Longhuan Wang , Yan Yu , Linzi Jiang
{"title":"Spatiotemporal patterns of gross primary productivity and the response to climate variability in the subtropical ecosystem of Eastern China","authors":"Ruixueer Wu ,&nbsp;Zhiyong Cui ,&nbsp;Binghao Jia ,&nbsp;Hao Sun ,&nbsp;Longhuan Wang ,&nbsp;Yan Yu ,&nbsp;Linzi Jiang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111292","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111292","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The subtropical ecosystem in the East Asian monsoon region is a significant carbon sink and plays an indispensable role in global carbon sequestration. However, the response of regional vegetation productivity to climate variability across seasons and the dominant climatic factors remain unclear. In this study, we analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of the gross primary productivity (GPP) in Zhejiang Province, China, a representative subtropical monsoon region in East Asia, based on Community Land Model 5.0 (CLM5.0) simulations. The results show that the CLM5.0-based GPP agrees well with <em>in situ</em> observations (<em>R</em> = 0.69), with higher accuracy (<em>e.g.</em>, higher R, lower RMSE and MAE) than Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer product (MODIS), Two-Leaf Light Use Efficiency model simulations (TL-LUE) and global OCO-2-based SIF product (GOSIF). We further examined the spatiotemporal dynamics of three climatic factors (temperature, precipitation, and shortwave radiation) and their seasonal impacts on GPP. GPP increased at a rate of 3.40 g·C·m<sup>−2</sup>·year<sup>−1</sup> between 1979 and 2018. Using the sliding window method, a turning point in the GPP time series was detected in 2005, due to an abrupt increase in precipitation. In terms of multiyear average spatial distribution, GPP variations are primarily driven by shortwave radiation and precipitation, with the former exerting a stronger influence. Notably, the seasonal perspective reveals a different pattern. The influence of temperature on GPP becomes more pronounced, especially in spring and winter. This study is expected to enhance our understanding of carbon cycling processes within the biosphere and ecosystems of subtropical regions with monsoon climate, providing constraints and support for the development of Earth system models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111292"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144827498","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Modeling fish swimming trajectories in a sudden expansion flow based on eulerian lagrangian agent method (ELAM): A case study of red crucian carp 基于欧拉-拉格朗日代理法(ELAM)的突然膨胀流中鱼类游动轨迹建模——以红鲫鱼为例
IF 3.2 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-08-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111286
Dongjin Gao , Xin Zhu , Minghai Huang , Siying Wang , Hui Guo
{"title":"Modeling fish swimming trajectories in a sudden expansion flow based on eulerian lagrangian agent method (ELAM): A case study of red crucian carp","authors":"Dongjin Gao ,&nbsp;Xin Zhu ,&nbsp;Minghai Huang ,&nbsp;Siying Wang ,&nbsp;Hui Guo","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111286","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111286","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Based on the experimental data of Red Crucian Carp swimming in a sudden expansion flow, this study established a fish swimming trajectory prediction model using the Eulerian–Lagrangian–agent method (ELAM). Considering the observed phenomenon that fish may exhibit different swimming behaviors under identical hydrodynamic conditions in both real-world and experiments, we innovativily summarize that fish may randomly adopt two distinct behavioral strategies: aggressive and conservative navigation in various environments. Through a systematic analysis of the experimental results of fish swimming trajectories and the numerical simulation results of the sudden expansion flow, we quantified the preferred value range and sensitivity of fish to the key hydraulic parameters (including flow velocity, turbulent kinetic energy, and strain rate) under each strategies. Based on these findings, we constructed a trajectories prediction model for fish swimming in complex flow conditions within the ELAM framework, which incorporates real-time hydrodynamic feedback mechanisms. This model is then used to simulate and analyze the swimming trajectories of Red Crucian Carp of three different body sizes in sudden expansion flows with inlet velocities ranging from 0.2 to 1.0 m/s. The results demonstrate that the prediction model successfully replicates the four typical trajectory patterns observed in the experiments, namely Main Current Migration, Recirculation Bypass Migration, Corner Retention, and Failed Migration. Moreover, the predicted trajectories' dependence on fish size and flow velocity aligns well with the experimental results. The model developed in this study can effectively capture the interaction between the fish and the surrounding flow, enable the prediction of the success rate and the efficiency of fish navigating through complex flow fields, which offers a potential alternative to traditional fish passage experiments, thereby providing a valuable tool for the design and optimization of fish protection measures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111286"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144779654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Using interaction profile to measure species uniqueness in food webs 利用相互作用特征来衡量食物网中物种的独特性
IF 3.2 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111277
Wei-chung Liu , Ferenc Jordán
{"title":"Using interaction profile to measure species uniqueness in food webs","authors":"Wei-chung Liu ,&nbsp;Ferenc Jordán","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111277","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111277","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Species are embedded in an intricate network of trophic interactions, it is therefore natural to examine species importance from a network perspective. In addition to measuring species importance by considering the centrality of their network positions in a food web (implying to be well connected to interaction partners), recent years have seen the emergence of species uniqueness (implying to be functionally harder to replace) as another facet of species importance. Existing network or food web-based uniqueness measurements are based on how species affect others and how their trophic fields may overlap. In this short communication paper, we demonstrate that it is also important to consider information on how species can be affected by others, and how this can be incorporated into species uniqueness measurement. We demonstrate our approach by analyzing in detail the Great Barrier Reef food web, and show how the inclusion of new information on species interaction pattern can change the uniqueness ranking of species. We further analyze 92 aquatic food webs to test the generality of our findings. For very few food webs, the correlation between species uniqueness rankings derived from the old and the new approaches is almost perfect. For the remaining food webs such a correlation varies, with many showing a medium level of correlation. Thus, including new information on species interaction pattern can offer new information on network or food web-based species uniqueness measurement.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"509 ","pages":"Article 111277"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144749966","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Warming air temperatures alter the timing and magnitude of reservoir zooplankton biomass 变暖的空气温度改变了水库浮游动物生物量的时间和数量
IF 3.2 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-07-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111272
Heather L. Wander , Mary E. Lofton , Jonathan P. Doubek , Dexter W. Howard , Matthew R. Hipsey , R. Quinn Thomas , Cayelan C. Carey
{"title":"Warming air temperatures alter the timing and magnitude of reservoir zooplankton biomass","authors":"Heather L. Wander ,&nbsp;Mary E. Lofton ,&nbsp;Jonathan P. Doubek ,&nbsp;Dexter W. Howard ,&nbsp;Matthew R. Hipsey ,&nbsp;R. Quinn Thomas ,&nbsp;Cayelan C. Carey","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111272","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111272","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Warming air temperatures are altering many physical, chemical, and biological processes in freshwater ecosystems. Process-based ecosystem models are important tools for predicting potential future changes to water quality due to warming by simulating complex ecological interactions. However, while previous studies have modeled climate-driven impacts on water quality (e.g., water temperature, dissolved oxygen, phytoplankton), few have included zooplankton, despite their critical role in freshwater ecosystems. Zooplankton functional groups can exhibit variable responses to warming temperatures, but the implications of these responses on freshwater ecosystems are not well understood. To understand the effects of warming on reservoir zooplankton and water quality, we configured and calibrated a process-based freshwater ecosystem model simulating three zooplankton functional groups and then applied multiple air temperature scenarios to explore ecosystem responses. We found that warming air temperature increased modeled rotifer biomass and decreased modeled cladoceran and copepod biomass. While the timing of annual rotifer peak biomass was not altered by warming air temperatures, annual copepod biomass peaks were delayed by 54–100 days within a year across warming scenarios. The timing of cladoceran biomass peaks was more variable in response to warming. Changes to the timing and magnitude of modeled zooplankton biomass were likely driven by changes in nutrients and phytoplankton, as we observed a trophic mismatch between phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. These results highlight the importance of including zooplankton functional groups in process-based models when exploring the future effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems, as changes in zooplankton communities can directly and indirectly alter ecosystem dynamics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"509 ","pages":"Article 111272"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144739442","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Howard T. Odum’s contributions to evolutionary theory 霍华德·t·欧达姆对进化论的贡献
IF 3.2 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-07-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111263
Thomas Abel
{"title":"Howard T. Odum’s contributions to evolutionary theory","authors":"Thomas Abel","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111263","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111263","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The famed systems ecologist Howard T. Odum rarely engaged directly with the activities of evolutionists or the advancement of evolutionary theory. The field of evolution does not claim Odum among their own, and he did not direct his scholarship to the topic or journals of evolution. But he undoubtedly saw his theorizing of system self-organizing as encompassing of evolutionary theory. To draw out that relationship, this paper will assemble a historical recounting of Odum’s writings that pertained to evolutionary theory. It will be documentary research of his prolific output of publications over 50 years with the aim of distilling the core of Odum’s thinking about evolution. For the systems ecologist Odum, self-organization is the evolutionary process of all systems in which <em>designs develop and prevail that maximize power intake, energy transformation, and those uses that reinforce production and efficiency</em>. This process Odum labels ‘maximum power’ and is the instrument of natural selection in systems. There is selection for maximum power in systems without life, in the origin of life, and in systems with life. The maximization of power is not human focused, it is not intentional, it is not a theory of group selection, and it may be continuous or particulate. Both natural selection and ecological succession are kinds of ‘system learning’, with different scales of time and space. System designs naturally form ‘hierarchy’, which contributes to maximum power by expanding system inputs in space and length. These topics are all addressed in the paper. Odum never felt constrained by academic disciplinary boundaries. He conceived of science as an integrated whole, with his writings intended for all the disciplines, including the evolutionists. While they may not have recognized his ideas, they need them.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"509 ","pages":"Article 111263"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144724251","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Environmental driven changes in tick life history can explain the variation in CCHFV prevalence in the Iberian Peninsula 蜱虫生活史的环境驱动变化可以解释伊比利亚半岛CCHFV流行率的变化
IF 3.2 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-07-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111267
Xander O’Neill , Andy White , Christian Gortázar , Francisco Ruiz-Fons
{"title":"Environmental driven changes in tick life history can explain the variation in CCHFV prevalence in the Iberian Peninsula","authors":"Xander O’Neill ,&nbsp;Andy White ,&nbsp;Christian Gortázar ,&nbsp;Francisco Ruiz-Fons","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111267","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111267","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) is an emerging tick-borne zoonotic disease with a wide geographical distribution and high case mortality in humans. The emerging nature of the pathogen means there is limited understanding of the epidemiological drivers of infection prevalence and regional variation in the risk of pathogen spillover. In this study we develop a mathematical model of CCHFV transmission between ticks and their different hosts to understand how changes in tick birth and tick survival will interact with host density and host composition to determine the incidence of infection in ticks and their varied hosts. A key result shows that CCHFV antibody prevalence in ungulate hosts is sensitive to variation in tick demographic parameters where a 50% variation in tick birth or death rates can lead to ranges of <span><math><mrow><mn>0</mn><mtext>–</mtext><mn>90</mn><mtext>%</mtext></mrow></math></span> seroprevalence in ungulates. Therefore, environmentally derived changes in tick life history parameters could explain the variation in CCHFV transmission to ungulates observed in the Iberian Peninsula. The model indicates that CCHFV transmission is sensitive to changes in the level of vertical or co-feeding transmission and calls for further studies to determine the importance of these transmission routes. We find that the risk of pathogen spillover to human populations due to an increased density of infected questing ticks is greatest in regions where ungulate seroprevalence is high. Therefore, monitoring wildlife disease status can inform on infection risk to humans and highlights the need for one health policies to manage pathogens that can infect multiple species.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"509 ","pages":"Article 111267"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144724252","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Integrating multiple data sources with species distribution models to estimate the distribution and abundance of northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) in the United States 结合多种数据源和物种分布模型估算美国北部山齿鹑(Colinus virginianus)的分布和丰度
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-07-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111265
William B. Lewis , Sprih Harsh , Patrick Freeman , Victoria Nolan , Justin Suraci , Bridgett E. Costanzo , James A. Martin
{"title":"Integrating multiple data sources with species distribution models to estimate the distribution and abundance of northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) in the United States","authors":"William B. Lewis ,&nbsp;Sprih Harsh ,&nbsp;Patrick Freeman ,&nbsp;Victoria Nolan ,&nbsp;Justin Suraci ,&nbsp;Bridgett E. Costanzo ,&nbsp;James A. Martin","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111265","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111265","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Species distribution models (SDMs) have traditionally focused on occupancy despite abundance potentially being a more useful metric for informing conservation initiatives. Integrating m<em>ultiple species</em> abundance datasets could retain the strengths of each data type and, at least partially, offset their weaknesses, potentially improving the performance of abundance-based SDMs. We developed spatially-non-stationary, abundance-based SDMs to assess the environmental drivers of spatial variation in abundance and to predict the abundance and distribution of northern bobwhite (<em>Colinus virginianus</em>) across the United States. We fitted Bayesian SDMs with regionally-partitioned coefficients by integrating structured North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and semi-structured eBird count data. We found that bobwhite abundance was concentrated in three main regions: southern Texas, the Great/Midwestern Plains, and the southeastern coastal plain. Total abundance across the range was estimated at 8,577,291 (8,292,554 - 8,933,202). While the spatial extent of the predicted bobwhite range was generally similar across models, models fit with single data sources appeared to vastly underestimate (eBird) or overestimate (BBS) abundance, though abundance estimation was improved through data integration. Most covariate effects exhibited non-stationarity across the range, potentially leading to inappropriate inferences or management decisions from a spatially-stationary model. Our study provides an important example of how datasets collected at different spatial scales under different observation protocols can be integrated via SDMs to improve abundance-based modeling and correct for weaknesses of individual datasets. Our modeling framework provides regional estimates of the drivers of bobwhite abundance and range-wide estimates of abundance for guiding both local and range-wide bobwhite conservation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"509 ","pages":"Article 111265"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144711657","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do European models of temperate forest ecological change apply in North America? 欧洲温带森林生态变化模式是否适用于北美?
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-07-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111269
Bingbin Wen , Dries Landuyt , Kris Verheyen , Donald M. Waller , Haben Blondeel
{"title":"Do European models of temperate forest ecological change apply in North America?","authors":"Bingbin Wen ,&nbsp;Dries Landuyt ,&nbsp;Kris Verheyen ,&nbsp;Donald M. Waller ,&nbsp;Haben Blondeel","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111269","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111269","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The transferability of ecological models, especially those based on machine learning approaches, needs to be thoroughly tested to predict beyond the range of the training data. We tested the cross-continental transferability of three machine learning models of forest understorey dynamics trained on data from one temperate region (central-western Europe) to determine how reliable they are for predicting changes in upland forest sites in southern (n = 83) and northern (n = 74) Wisconsin, USA. We tested trajectories of species richness and the proportions of woody species and forest specialists under the influence of global change (i.e. changes in temperature, precipitation, and nitrogen deposition) and local forest management. Among the three tested models, only one (the model predicting species richness) generated useful predictions. Such low success suggests that distinctly different environmental contexts or the absence of key biotic and/or abiotic predictors likely impeded model performance. Although we cannot recommend applying these models to regions beyond temperate Europe, including more predictor variables, tuning features, and performing spatial cross-validation could improve power and transferability in future models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"509 ","pages":"Article 111269"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144712496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Balancing act: A participatory system dynamics approach for Mar Menor’s sustainable future 平衡行为:一个参与式的系统动力学方法为Mar Menor的可持续未来
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-07-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111268
Mahla Rashidian , Valentina Elena Tartiu , Isabel Seifert-Dähnn , Maximilian Nawrath , Line Johanne Barkved , Pablo Blanco-Gómez , Marckbyn S. Rodríguez-Vélez
{"title":"Balancing act: A participatory system dynamics approach for Mar Menor’s sustainable future","authors":"Mahla Rashidian ,&nbsp;Valentina Elena Tartiu ,&nbsp;Isabel Seifert-Dähnn ,&nbsp;Maximilian Nawrath ,&nbsp;Line Johanne Barkved ,&nbsp;Pablo Blanco-Gómez ,&nbsp;Marckbyn S. Rodríguez-Vélez","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111268","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111268","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Mar Menor lagoon and coastal area are facing significant environmental degradation; however, the role of socio-economic activities in this crisis has been insufficiently explored. Understanding this connection is crucial for reversing the damage and ensuring sustainable development. Our research employs a participatory system dynamic modeling approach, offering a fresh perspective on the intricate interplay among environmental, social, and economic factors in the Mar Menor catchment. This method not only identifies the shared responsibilities of various economic sectors and governance levels but also highlights the critical misalignment of policies at local, regional, and national levels. By simulating different future scenarios, we demonstrate how economic sectors can collaboratively drive sustainable social-ecological interventions. This approach enables stakeholders to understand the underlying dynamics of environmental degradation and its socio-economic connections, allowing them to anticipate the medium- and long-term consequences of their actions. It can aid in creating integrated, sustainable sectoral strategies and practices. The proposed mixed strategy scenario provides actionable insights for policymakers, enabling them to develop well-aligned policies that effectively mitigate nitrate pollution and promote sustainable socio-economic growth. Moreover, this approach facilitates anticipating long-term unintended consequences, ensuring that interventions are effective. Our findings emphasize the urgent need for coordinated action and provide a clear roadmap toward improving the water quality of the Mar Menor while fostering sustainable socio-economic development in the area. By aligning policies and leveraging shared responsibilities, Mar Menor’s vital ecosystem can be safeguarded, securing a sustainable future for the region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"509 ","pages":"Article 111268"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144711656","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Ecotracer set up to trace microplastics up the Black Sea marine food web 生态追踪器用来追踪黑海海洋食物网中的微塑料
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-07-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111271
Natalia Serpetti , Chiara Piroddi , William J. Walters , Elisa Garcia-Gorriz , Svetla Miladinova , Diego Macias
{"title":"Ecotracer set up to trace microplastics up the Black Sea marine food web","authors":"Natalia Serpetti ,&nbsp;Chiara Piroddi ,&nbsp;William J. Walters ,&nbsp;Elisa Garcia-Gorriz ,&nbsp;Svetla Miladinova ,&nbsp;Diego Macias","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111271","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111271","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Around 70 % of all litter in the sea is plastic that, rather than decomposing, breaks down into ever-smaller pieces that can be ingested by marine organisms. However, we lack an understanding of consumption risk by marine species. In this study, particles of microplastic (MP) were traced-up the Black Sea food web, through the calibration process of the Ecotracer module against species-specific MP stomach content observations. These observations, were collected through a literature review: records of MP ingestion for over 60,000 individuals across 780 species within fish and invertebrates were gathered. Statistical analysis, performed on these records, revealed that MP uptake was higher in species inhabiting the Indian Ocean, the Caspian and the China seas. The calibration of the MP model, showed that, at steady state, small benthic and pelagic primary consumers showed the highest concentrations of MP per unit of biomass, led by high direct environmental uptake, and potentially as a consequence of MP bioaccumulation. Secondary consumers, at higher trophic levels, revealed higher MP trophic uptake (biomagnification through diet). Differences in Ecotracer set-up and the calibration procedures were discussed across other recent publications addressing plastic pollution in food-webs. The results were interpreted in relation to species ecological behaviors and physiological characteristics. The approach here, presented with the accessible global database on MP in stomach contents, aims to be a reference for setting up and calibrating MP in food webs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"509 ","pages":"Article 111271"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144694943","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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