Ecological Modelling最新文献

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Exploring physiological constraints on life-history traits using Dynamic Energy Budgets
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110993
Mélanie Debelgarric, Charlotte Récapet
{"title":"Exploring physiological constraints on life-history traits using Dynamic Energy Budgets","authors":"Mélanie Debelgarric,&nbsp;Charlotte Récapet","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110993","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110993","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A current challenge in predicting species responses to global change is to understand evolutionary responses to rapidly changing environments and novel environmental conditions. It has been hypothesised that the speed of evolution would be contingent uponhighly dependent on evolutionary constraints shaped by resource allocation trade-offs and other physiological mechanisms underlying the expression of traits. However, the majority of models employed to investigate life-history evolution remain phenomenological in nature. They fail to incorporate realistic mechanisms for the transfer and transformation of resources that are in accordance with the established laws of physics and chemistry. Our objective was therefore to explore the full range of life-history strategies that are genuinely available to organisms through realistic metabolic processes and to compare them with the predictions made by classical life-history theories. To this end, we employed the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory to model the energy allocation of individuals. We studied inter-individual variation by varying the value of energetic primary parameters (i.e. physiological processes) of the model, under constant environmental conditions (optimal temperature and ad libitum food source). Physiological processes that impact both growth and reproduction, such as energy acquisition, allocation and mobilisation, were found to reproduce the predictions of life-history theory to a certain extent. However, some discrepancies remained, mainly because DEB theory accounts for physiological retro-actions that are not articulated in life-history theories. For example, quicker growth had an indirect impact on reproduction and ageing through respectively increased resource acquisition and dilution of damage-inducing compounds. Based on those insights, we propose future directions to integrate physiology, and in particular metabolism, into models of life-history evolution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110993"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159371","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Machine learning emulators of dynamical systems for understanding ecosystem behaviour
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110956
Oriol Pomarol Moya , Siamak Mehrkanoon , Madlene Nussbaum , Walter W. Immerzeel , Derek Karssenberg
{"title":"Machine learning emulators of dynamical systems for understanding ecosystem behaviour","authors":"Oriol Pomarol Moya ,&nbsp;Siamak Mehrkanoon ,&nbsp;Madlene Nussbaum ,&nbsp;Walter W. Immerzeel ,&nbsp;Derek Karssenberg","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110956","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110956","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Minimal models (MM) aim to capture the simplified behaviour of complex systems to facilitate system-level analyses that would be unfeasible with more sophisticated numerical models. However, the choices involved in minimal model development heavily rely on expert knowledge, a source of bias that can interfere with good modelling practices. In this paper, a new method is proposed in which a machine learning (ML) model is trained with transient data generated by a detailed physically-based numerical model, predicting the rate of change of the target state variables given their current value and additional drivers. The trained model is then used to mimic the analysis made with traditional minimal models. This approach (ML-MM) is deployed in a semiarid hillslope ecosystem characterising its soil and vegetation components. The ML-MM outputs share most of the general features with previous expert-based results but show a better ability of the hillslope to (1) recover its vegetation, (2) resist total disappearance of the soil and (3) reach substantially higher soil depths in steady state. Furthermore, a new intermediate stable equilibrium is found between the already known healthy and degraded ones, revealing a more complex pattern of ecosystem collapse that avoids a critical shift, as supported by numerical model simulations. The transient behaviour is also investigated, from which we conclude that the system can exhibit strong reactivity, that is, an initial deviation away from equilibrium after a perturbation. In conclusion, the present study demonstrates the potential of ML-MM to obtain new scientific insights on complex systems that might be missed by expert-based alternatives. Hence, minimal models may benefit greatly from incorporating detailed numerical models and data-driven simplification in their development process. Ultimately, this methodology could be applicable to many fields of study and even be expanded to observational data, enhancing our understanding of real-world complex system dynamics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110956"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159787","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A process-based dynamic modelling study of the impact of discharge water from shrimp culture on riverine nitrogen cycling: A case study
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110995
Suvendu Das , Sagar Adhurya , Prithwi Ghosh , Santanu Ray
{"title":"A process-based dynamic modelling study of the impact of discharge water from shrimp culture on riverine nitrogen cycling: A case study","authors":"Suvendu Das ,&nbsp;Sagar Adhurya ,&nbsp;Prithwi Ghosh ,&nbsp;Santanu Ray","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110995","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110995","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Shrimp is the primary aquaculture product exported from India in the global market. The shrimp industry contributes to the economic boom in the coastal provinces of India. However, shrimp culture imposes several externalities on the local ecosystem. One of the vital concerns is the nutrient-rich, chemically manipulated culture water discharge, which causes violations of sustainable and cleaner shrimp culture protocols. This study aims to understand the impacts of culture water on the nitrogen cycle of the river. The water is periodically released back into the river through a canal from the shrimp farms. This study was conducted by building a process-based system dynamic model following modelling protocols. The model was simulated, calibrated, and validated with the observed data collected from periodic sampling from the river, shrimp farms, and canals. Seven state variables were considered, and sediment nitrogen was treated as a single state variable. The interrelationship between different state variables was established by the inflows and outflows, incorporating several parameters. Study results indicate that <em>NOx</em> (nitrate and nitrite) is the main nutrient influx from the culture water. The model is a good predictor for the water column nitrogen components. The ecological functionality by different rate parameters of biotic components (Zooplankton and Phytoplankton) are not sensitive for this model's nitrogenous state variables. By the model outcomes, no direct relation between shrimp culture and the abundance of biotic components of this model can be established. Sediment nitrogen acts as the sink for the water column nitrogen components. This modelling study focuses on one of the river's vital regulatory ecosystem services, <em>i.e</em>., the nitrogen cycle. This model can be implemented to predict the impacts of any water discharge from such production on the nitrogen cycle of a lotic system. The study is important for establishing viable production protocols to achieve a sustainable balance between the shrimp production industry and the ecosystem.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110995"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Modeling polar bear (Ursus maritimus) snowdrift den habitat on Alaska's Beaufort Sea coast using SnowDens-3D and ArcticDEM data
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110939
Glen E. Liston , Katherine B. Gura , Justin A. Crawford , Lori Polasek , Craig J. Perham , Lori Quakenbush , Adele K. Reinking , Jewell Lund , Sarah M. Chinn , Richard T. Shideler , Ryan R. Wilson
{"title":"Modeling polar bear (Ursus maritimus) snowdrift den habitat on Alaska's Beaufort Sea coast using SnowDens-3D and ArcticDEM data","authors":"Glen E. Liston ,&nbsp;Katherine B. Gura ,&nbsp;Justin A. Crawford ,&nbsp;Lori Polasek ,&nbsp;Craig J. Perham ,&nbsp;Lori Quakenbush ,&nbsp;Adele K. Reinking ,&nbsp;Jewell Lund ,&nbsp;Sarah M. Chinn ,&nbsp;Richard T. Shideler ,&nbsp;Ryan R. Wilson","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110939","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110939","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Pregnant polar bears (<em>Ursus maritimus</em>) excavate maternal dens in seasonal snowdrifts during fall along Alaska's Beaufort Sea coast to shelter their altricial young during birth and development. With recent sea ice decreases, bears are denning more frequently on land. Each year, the weather and blowing-snow conditions control the creation of snowdrifts across the landscape. Therefore, available snowdrift den habitat can vary widely from one year to the next, depending on the late fall and early winter air temperature, snowfall, and wind speed and direction. We implemented a physics-based, spatiotemporal, polar bear snowdrift den habitat model (SnowDens-3D) across the eastern Alaska Beaufort Sea coast (an area of approximately 17,000 km<sup>2</sup>). High-resolution (2.0 m) topography data were provided by the ArcticDEM, and daily meteorological forcings were provided by NASA's MERRA-2 reanalysis. In many areas across the Arctic Alaska simulation domain, the raw ArcticDEM data contained physically unrealistic topographic anomalies (bumps and depressions) of similar magnitude (± 1.5 m) to the topographic variations that underlie potential den habitat (height differences of approximately 1.5 m). To create an ArcticDEM dataset for this den habitat model, considerable pre-processing of the ArcticDEM data was required; we implemented numerous filters to remove the topographic anomalies while preserving those topographic features capable of creating snowdrifts deep enough to provide viable polar bear den habitat. A 21-year (2000–2020) SnowDens-3D simulation was performed, and model outputs were compared with 91 historical polar bear den locations. The year-specific simulations identified viable den habitat for 98% of the observed den locations. The interannual variation in den habitat area over the 21-year period ranged by approximately a factor of three from the minimum year (2001; 554 km<sup>2</sup>) to the maximum year (2017; 1,566 km<sup>2</sup>). The ability to identify viable polar bear snowdrift den habitat in near-real time, as demonstrated here, will help wildlife managers and industry personnel identify potential polar bear maternity den sites and minimize disturbance to occupied dens.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110939"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159919","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Global sensitivity analysis of the harmonized Lemna model
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111016
Chloé Guisnet , Stefan Reichenberger , Elena Alonso García , Frank Voss
{"title":"Global sensitivity analysis of the harmonized Lemna model","authors":"Chloé Guisnet ,&nbsp;Stefan Reichenberger ,&nbsp;Elena Alonso García ,&nbsp;Frank Voss","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111016","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111016","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mechanistic effect modelling is becoming increasingly important for environmental risk assessment in the framework of pesticide authorization. For instance, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has judged the model for the aquatic macrophyte test organism <em>Lemna</em> as “ready for use.” Nevertheless, national regulatory authorities are still hesitant to accept mechanistic effect modelling studies.</div><div>In order to increase the confidence in the Lemna model, in this study we performed a two-step global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of the harmonized model. GSA notably allows identifying and ranking the importance of i) toxicokinetic (TK) and toxicodynamic (TD) parameters, ii) physiological and ecological parameters, iii) environmental driving variables, and iv) initial conditions.</div><div>In a first step a Morris sensitivity screening was conducted to filter out non-influential input factors. In a second step, a true variance-based GSA was carried out with the Sobol method. The GSA was conducted for four different concentration levels and three different exposure regimes: constant, pulsed and realistic. Moreover, two different sets of input distributions of TKTD parameters were examined. The target variables were the effects of the pesticide on <em>Lemna</em> biomass and average growth rate.</div><div>Both Morris and Sobol GSA showed that for a specific substance three physiological parameters (optimum and minimum growth temperature, maximum photosynthesis rate) and the initial biomass BM0 were more important than the five TKTD parameters. Hence, for predictive applications of the model outside a laboratory context, BM0 must be chosen carefully, and uncertainty in the main physiological parameters must be reduced to a minimum.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 111016"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The role of wild birds in transmitting highly pathogenic avian influenza in Denmark: An exploration using a spatiotemporal model
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111019
Yangfan Liu , Lene Jung Kjær , Anette Ella Boklund , Preben Clausen , Timme Nyegaard , Michael P. Ward , Shawn Laffan , Carsten Thure Kirkeby
{"title":"The role of wild birds in transmitting highly pathogenic avian influenza in Denmark: An exploration using a spatiotemporal model","authors":"Yangfan Liu ,&nbsp;Lene Jung Kjær ,&nbsp;Anette Ella Boklund ,&nbsp;Preben Clausen ,&nbsp;Timme Nyegaard ,&nbsp;Michael P. Ward ,&nbsp;Shawn Laffan ,&nbsp;Carsten Thure Kirkeby","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111019","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111019","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We developed a stochastic spatiotemporal simulation model, DanHPAIwild, to explore the transmission dynamics of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in wild bird populations and generate a time-dependent risk map in Denmark. Denmark and its near-coast waters were rasterised into 10 × 10 km cells. Weekly changes in abundance of five waterbird species over an epidemiological year (October to September) were estimated by adjusting missing reports and then comparing the estimates with raw population numbers. The model consisted of two parts: bird abundance and environmental transmission. Dynamics of bird abundance were modelled using voluntarily reported weekly bird counts, published literature, and expert opinion on bird ecology. Environmental transmission simulated HPAI virus (HPAIV) exposure via consumption of contaminated water, together with viral shedding in the rasterised cells. We calibrated and initialised the model with passive surveillance data from the 2020/21 season, refining inputs to minimise deviations between simulated and observed outcomes. Sensitivity analyses revealed that variations in the median infection dose and peak time of contacts notably influencing the simulated bird mortality. The model also examined removing infectious dead birds as a potential control strategy, showing that removing 50 % reduced the annual HPAIV mortality by 38 % compared to implementing no interventions. The model reflects well the real-life spatiotemporal patterns, highlighting high-risk areas close to coastline and water areas. These findings offer valuable insights into HPAIV dynamics in wild birds in Denmark and can aid resource allocation for interventions and surveillance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 111019"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159929","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Quantile regression for estimating Douglas-fir natural regeneration potential using the R package quaxnat: Advanced ecological modeling for the management of nature conservation and silviculture
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110968
Maximilian Axer , Robert Schlicht , Lukas Blickensdörfer
{"title":"Quantile regression for estimating Douglas-fir natural regeneration potential using the R package quaxnat: Advanced ecological modeling for the management of nature conservation and silviculture","authors":"Maximilian Axer ,&nbsp;Robert Schlicht ,&nbsp;Lukas Blickensdörfer","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110968","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110968","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent extreme weather conditions in Europe have led to widespread destruction of Norway spruce by storms and bark beetles, creating large clearings that need replanting. The shortage of planting material has shifted focus to natural regeneration processes, with Douglas-fir (<em>Pseudotsuga menziesii</em> [Mirb.] Franco) emerging as a potential substitute due to its growth performance and drought tolerance. This study introduces and applies methods for investigating the regeneration ecology of Douglas-fir, focusing on the potential density of established regeneration and its dependence on the distance to the nearest seed source.</div><div>This dependence is modelled with various classical spatial dispersal kernels, the parameters of which are estimated with a quantile regression approach implemented in a new R package <em>quaxnat</em>. Regeneration data from 44,257 sample plots in the state forest of Lower Saxony, Germany, are combined with remote sensing-based positions of potential seed trees to illustrate these methods. Among the standard dispersal kernels provided by <em>quaxnat</em>, the <em>spatial t distribution</em> proves to be the most suitable. Here, for the .999th quantile, the estimated potential regeneration density reaches almost 11,000 trees per hectare in the immediate vicinity of the seed trees and decreases sharply with increasing distance.</div><div>A simple simulation model that takes dispersal and establishment into account illustrates how these results can be linked to management scenarios. The study provides valuable information for nature conservation and silviculture, suggesting buffer zones around sensitive habitats and guiding forest management decisions regarding natural regeneration options.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110968"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143158986","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does climate change stimulate citizens' responses to conserving urban forest? Insights from stimulus-organism-response theory
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111000
Rahim Maleknia , Raluca Elena Enescu
{"title":"Does climate change stimulate citizens' responses to conserving urban forest? Insights from stimulus-organism-response theory","authors":"Rahim Maleknia ,&nbsp;Raluca Elena Enescu","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111000","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111000","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change presents profound challenges to urban environments, highlighting the pressing need for active citizen engagement in combating efforts, particularly with urban forests conservation. This research seeks to address the critical necessity for effective community involvement as climate-related risks intensify. By examining the interplay between climate change stimuli and citizen responses through using the Stimulus-Organism-Response theory, this study aims to understand the impact of climate change on citizens’ engagement in conserving urban forests in Tehran as case study. The study involved the analysis of data collected from 596 participants via a structured questionnaire. Utilizing structural equation modeling, the research examined the relationships among various latent constructs, ensuring both reliability and validity in its measurement framework. The results reveal that evidence of climate change significantly enhances citizens' environmental concern and sense of environmental responsibility. Furthermore, societal influence plays a crucial role in amplifying these responses. Specifically, increased environmental concern is strongly correlated with heightened intentions to engage in conservation actions. The study also reveals a gap between intention and actual conservation behavior, highlighting barriers that prevent individuals from translating intention into action. This study contributes to the theoretical literature by integrating emotional and cognitive dimensions into the understanding of pro-environmental behavior, offering essential insights for policymakers aiming to cultivate community engagement in urban forestry initiatives. By elucidating the complex interplay between external stimuli and internal psychological processes, this research provides a comprehensive framework for developing strategies that enhance public participation in climate change mitigation efforts. Ultimately, addressing both cognitive and emotional aspects is vital for fostering effective urban forest conservation in a rapidly changing climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 111000"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Comparison of spring phenology simulation in central Asian grasslands
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111011
Xin Dou , Lizhou Wu , Chengyi Zhao , Juyan Li , Yingyu Yan , Jianting Zhu , Dandan Wang
{"title":"Comparison of spring phenology simulation in central Asian grasslands","authors":"Xin Dou ,&nbsp;Lizhou Wu ,&nbsp;Chengyi Zhao ,&nbsp;Juyan Li ,&nbsp;Yingyu Yan ,&nbsp;Jianting Zhu ,&nbsp;Dandan Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Simulation of the spring phenology of grasslands is crucial for understanding how ecosystem respond to climate change and for precisely modeling the carbon, water, and energy balance in terrestrial ecosystems. In this study, the performance of 15 phenology models was compared in terms of their ability to simulate the spring phenology of three grassland types in Central Asia from 2000 to 2019, using meteorological data and remote sensing inversion phenology data. The start of the grassland season (SOS) was simulated, and the root mean square errors (RMSEs) were evaluated. The phenology models produced a median SOS RMSE of 6.7 ± 2.5 days. Among the 15 models, the Temperature-precipitation model (TP), Growing degree day model (GDD), and Temperature-precipitation sequential model (TPS) demonstrated superior performance for temperate grassland, desert grassland, and mountain meadow, respectively. Their respective median RMSEs were 4.20, 5.37, and 5.28 days. Furthermore, the study also projected the future grassland SOS from 2020 to 2100 under seven radiative forcing scenarios using these three models. The simulation results indicated that the SOS for all three grassland types would advance in the future, especially under higher radiative forcing scenarios. The study provides a scientific basis for the sustainable development of grassland ecosystems in Central Asia.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 111011"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Research on Accounting for the Value of Forest Ecological Products in Qilian Mountain National Park in Gansu Province
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110984
Na Meng , Ying Zhang , Hui Xiao
{"title":"Research on Accounting for the Value of Forest Ecological Products in Qilian Mountain National Park in Gansu Province","authors":"Na Meng ,&nbsp;Ying Zhang ,&nbsp;Hui Xiao","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110984","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110984","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The region benefits from forest ecological goods, which support sustainable human growth and well-being by supplying material and ecological products and regulating ecological products and ecological products for cultural tourism. By using GEP accounting, this study aims to evaluate the material forest ecological products, regulating forest ecological products Soil Conservation (SC), Carbon Sequestration (CS), Crop Pollination (CP), Water Conservation (WC), Wind prevention and sand fixation (WPSF) and Insect pollination, and cultural service forest ecological products of Qilian Mountain National Park in Gansu Province. Finally, it is concluded that the forest products in Qilian Mountain National Park, Gansu Province, have significant potential. The value of these products generally exhibits a smooth development trend; the woodland type that contributes most to these products is shrub forest; the forest products' spatial distribution features include high concentrations in the southeast and low concentrations in the northwest, with a gradual decline from east to west. This pattern aligns with the distribution of vegetation types in the study area.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"501 ","pages":"Article 110984"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143158597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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