Ecological Modelling最新文献_第6页

Phosphorus dynamics in water and sediments in a large multi-use reservoir under extreme volume variation 极端体积变化下大型多用途水库水体和沉积物中磷的动态

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学

Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-08-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111316

Iran Eduardo Lima Neto

{"title":"Phosphorus dynamics in water and sediments in a large multi-use reservoir under extreme volume variation","authors":"Iran Eduardo Lima Neto","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111316","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111316","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Castanhão is the largest non-hydropower dam in Latin America, which was built in 2002 to serve as a multi-use strategic reservoir in the Brazilian semiarid. Although this reservoir reached 96 % of its capacity in 2009, a severe drought from 2012-2016 resulted in extreme variations in water storage (2 - 82 %) and total phosphorus (TP) in the water (1.0 ⋅ 10<sup>1</sup> - 2.2 ⋅ 10<sup>2</sup> mg/m³) and sediments (2.0 ⋅ 10<sup>5</sup> - 1.4 ⋅ 10<sup>6</sup> mg/m³), leading to massive fish mortalities and abrupt increases in water treatment costs. In this study, complete-mix TP models considering water and sediment compartments and several improvements compared to previous models such as distinct variabilities of water volume and hypoxic area were developed and tested for the entire study period (2008-2022), including floods and droughts. The model incorporating a stronger pattern of hypoxia in the wet period best represented TP dynamics in the reservoir, with acceptable Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE = 0.46) and percent bias (PBIAS = -8.98 %) for the water, as well as for the sediments (NSE = 0.80 and PBIAS = +0.39 %). Excepting for the output load, all the other TP fluxes decreased from wet to dry periods, following approximately the behavior of inflow and water volume. An average mass balance in the water showed that the TP sources from external load (25.3 %), fish-cage load (16.3 %) and release from anoxic sediments (8.2 %) were approximately equal to the TP sinks from settling (46.8 %) and output load (3.4 %). On the other hand, a mass balance in the sediments revealed that the TP source from settling (78.5 %) was substantially higher than the TP sinks from release (13.8 %) and burial (7.4 %). Model simulations until 2050 suggested a progressive TP increase both in the water and sediments. Moreover, a total load reduction of at least 80 % would be necessary to stabilize TP concentration in both compartments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111316"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144860355","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Individual behaviour and temperature: simulation of an insect parasitoid population 个体行为和温度：昆虫寄生性种群的模拟

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学

Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-08-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111309

Julie Augustin , Jacques Brodeur , Guy Boivin , Gaétan Bourgeois

{"title":"Individual behaviour and temperature: simulation of an insect parasitoid population","authors":"Julie Augustin , Jacques Brodeur , Guy Boivin , Gaétan Bourgeois","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111309","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111309","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The impact of temperature on the physiology of insects has been extensively studied. Conversely, we know much less about the impact on insect behaviour. In the context of climate change, we urgently need to better understand the effect of temperature on animal behaviour, and to include these effects in predictive population models. To evaluate the importance of such inclusions, we created two temperature-based population dynamics simulation models of parasitoid’s life cycle. The first one is based on development, mortality and oviposition rate data, while the second model includes those plus behavioural components: mating, host searching and host exploitation. Including behaviours in the population dynamics model resulted in slightly lower predicted populations, but the change was small, suggesting that including behaviours did not increase the prediction efficiency. This is expected in temperature conditions under which the species has evolved, because individuals can behave optimally. Behaviours and development traits all had different thermal performance curves, with optimal temperature and tolerance range varying. Therefore, while the inclusion of behaviours did not change much the dynamics of simulated populations at intermediate temperature conditions, this would no longer hold true when temperatures become more extreme. In the context of climate change, extreme temperatures are expected to occur more frequently, thus strongly affecting insect behavioural performance, and likely resulting in changes in population dynamics. Consequently, behavioural components should be considered when studying more extreme conditions, because physiological components alone overlook certain effects of temperature on the life cycle of an individual.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111309"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144852010","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

From theory to application: measuring development disparities in Mozambique through an Odum-inspired emergy framework 从理论到应用：通过奥德姆启发的能源框架衡量莫桑比克的发展差距

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学

Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111287

Estêvão Salvador Langa, Biagio F. Giannetti, Fábio Sevegnani, Feni Agostinho, Cecília M.V.B. Almeida

{"title":"From theory to application: measuring development disparities in Mozambique through an Odum-inspired emergy framework","authors":"Estêvão Salvador Langa, Biagio F. Giannetti, Fábio Sevegnani, Feni Agostinho, Cecília M.V.B. Almeida","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111287","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111287","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study proposes an integrative framework for assessing development disparities grounded in Howard T. Odum’s systems ecology and emergy theory. Drawing upon the Five Sector Sustainability (5SEnSU) model, the framework captures economic, environmental, and social dimensions of performance through a systemic and energetically grounded lens. Using Mozambique and its trade relationships within and beyond the Southern African Development Community (SADC) as a case study, the IDEAS index (Integrated Development Emergy Adjusted Score) is introduced. It is based on five normalized indicators: GDP per unit of emergy, GDP per capita, GDP per workforce, GDP per CO₂ emissions, and GDP per population below the poverty line. Results for 2014 reveal pronounced structural disparities, with Mozambique exhibiting one of the lowest performances (IDEAS = 0.076) and disparity ratios exceeding 12 in comparison to developed countries. By embedding Odum’s principles of energy hierarchy, feedback, and self-organization, the proposed framework offers a robust tool for diagnosing systemic imbalances and guiding ecologically informed development strategies. This contribution aims to operationalize Odum’s legacy within international sustainability assessments and offers a more coherent alternative to conventional economically centered metrics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111287"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144830858","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Optimal control strategies to curtail cacao swollen-shoot virus infection and maximize net economic benefit 减少可可肿枝病毒感染，实现净经济效益最大化的最优控制策略

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学

Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111284

Maria C.A. Leite , Folashade B. Agusto , Benito Chen-Charpentier , Frank Owusu-Ansah , Owusu Domfeh

{"title":"Optimal control strategies to curtail cacao swollen-shoot virus infection and maximize net economic benefit","authors":"Maria C.A. Leite , Folashade B. Agusto , Benito Chen-Charpentier , Frank Owusu-Ansah , Owusu Domfeh","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111284","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111284","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Cacao production in West Africa is being endangered by the cacao swollen shoot disease. The virus that causes the disease is spread by mealybugs. A mild strain of the virus can be used to inoculate susceptible (healthy) seedlings, thus reducing impacts of the closely related severe virus on such trees, which may also reduce spread of the disease. In the present study, we developed a mathematical model based on ordinary differential equations with an age structure that models the temporal dynamics of susceptible, inoculated, and severely infected trees and their interaction with mealybugs. Optimal control approaches integrated with this model were employed to identify the most effective strategy for maximizing the economic net benefit for farmers by adjusting the ratio of susceptible to inoculated seedlings utilized to replace severely infected trees. Two scenarios that reflected different strategies for cutting and replacing infected trees were considered. Numerical simulations using real data were performed. Based on model assumptions and control strategies studied, the optimal strategy was to establish a farm with some inoculated seedlings, remove only severely infected trees from the field, and replace them with inoculated seedlings for approximately 10 years and then with the susceptible seedlings. Further study employing models that incorporate additional processes and extended data sets is essential to assess the effectiveness of this strategy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111284"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144842374","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Systems modeling for agroecology and land restoration 农业生态学和土地恢复的系统建模

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学

Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111307

Luigi Conte , Federico Surra , Sebastiano Favarin , Vito Comar , Francesco Gonella

{"title":"Systems modeling for agroecology and land restoration","authors":"Luigi Conte , Federico Surra , Sebastiano Favarin , Vito Comar , Francesco Gonella","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111307","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111307","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>At the time of the development of H.T. Odum’s energy system theory, the field of agroecology was not yet defined as a scientific discipline. Nevertheless, minimal models were already proposed to describe what today are referred to as agroecological and land restoration practices. In this work, we review literature from the early 1970s to nowadays by tracing a red thread to connect the original formulation of the energy system language with the current understanding of agroecology and land restoration. In the light of this picture, we draw a general application of the energy systems language and modeling to describe land use and land restoration dynamics. We apply this scheme to model and reproduce the land use dynamics of a real restoration project led by a farmers’ family in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. The case study of Sitio Luciana shows the transformation of a monocultural and partially degraded land into a biodiverse, food-producing area by developing a complex agroecosystem owing to human work and farmers’ local ecological knowledge. As an application of the energy system language, we build a dynamical model that closely reproduces observed GIS-retrieved patterns (<em>global RMSE ∼2%</em>), highlighting human-mediated ecological succession—targeted at restoring Atlantic Forest—as key to agroecosystems development, and offering scientific validation of the farmers’ local ecological knowledge. This work shows that the energy systems theory and modelling approach, as inherited from H.T. Odum, can: 1) deepen the understanding of local agroecosystem and land system dynamics, including human management; 2) inform the development of non-linear models grounded in both scientific and local knowledge; and 3) offer conceptual guidance for land management and policy strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111307"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144830859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Snow leopard connectivity through trans-boundary areas surrounding the Dzungarian Basin in Kazakhstan 雪豹通过哈萨克斯坦准噶尔盆地周边的跨界地区连通

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学

Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111281

Alexey Grachev , Yuriy Grachev , Maxim Bespalov , Saltore Saparbayev , Yerlik Baydavletov , Dina Konysbayeva , Philip Riordan , Luciano Atzeni

{"title":"Snow leopard connectivity through trans-boundary areas surrounding the Dzungarian Basin in Kazakhstan","authors":"Alexey Grachev , Yuriy Grachev , Maxim Bespalov , Saltore Saparbayev , Yerlik Baydavletov , Dina Konysbayeva , Philip Riordan , Luciano Atzeni","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111281","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111281","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The assessment of landscape connectivity is central to the development of robust conservation strategies. Such knowledge is particularly important to understand isolation and dispersal patterns of wildlife species. Using snow leopard (<em>Panthera uncia</em>) occurrence data from Kazakhstan, this study sought to explore connectivity patterns in trans-boundary areas, with a particular emphasis on the Dzungarian basin, a geographic feature regarded as a barrier to snow leopard movement and range connectivity. We employed a multiple-scales species distribution model to reveal drivers of snow leopard occurrence, generating also a reference model reflecting the historical distribution of snow leopards in the country. We then adopted resistant kernels and factorial least-cost paths to infer core areas to snow leopard persistence and connectivity corridors throughout the study area. Snow leopard occurrence was driven by fine-scale topographic attributes and the configuration of open areas and forest patches. Kazakhstan possessed a low proportion of core patches but hosted critical stepping-stone areas to range connectivity along borders. Factorial least-cost paths suggested limited connectivity through trans-boundary areas surrounding the Dzungarian Basin in Kazakhstan, which only appeared as stepping-stone patches when snow leopard dispersal was high, suggesting the existence of source-sink population dynamics. Conservation efforts must be directed to ensuring and restoring functional connectivity across the main trans-boundary mountain ranges and from these to the stepping-stone core patches in the Dzungarian basin. Increased monitoring efforts in trans-boundary areas and collaboration among range countries are advocated to improve knowledge on snow leopard dynamics in this part of its range.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111281"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144842234","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Scenario-driven modeling of mountain ecosystems: land use-carbon dynamics simulation based on the coupled SD-FLUS-InVEST framework 基于sd - flow - invest耦合框架的山地生态系统情景驱动模型：土地利用-碳动态模拟

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学

Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111293

Qin Yaowei , Yan Yu , Dong Jiaqi , Zhao Zhenyu , Li Shuangjiang , Cao Jiansheng , Xiao Jieying

{"title":"Scenario-driven modeling of mountain ecosystems: land use-carbon dynamics simulation based on the coupled SD-FLUS-InVEST framework","authors":"Qin Yaowei , Yan Yu , Dong Jiaqi , Zhao Zhenyu , Li Shuangjiang , Cao Jiansheng , Xiao Jieying","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111293","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111293","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding land use and carbon dynamics was crucial for optimizing resource management and promoting carbon neutrality. With a focus on the sustainable development of mountain systems, this study presented a coupling framework of SD-FLUS-InVEST and used the Yanshan-Taihang mountainous area as a case study to explore land use transitions and the mechanisms by which the carbon cycle responded. This model coupled the entire policy-space-ecology chain, improved computational efficiency compared to traditional models, achieved high-precision spatial allocation (Kappa > 0.83), and supported multi-scenario simulations. Empirical studies showed that the region's carbon imbalance had continued to worsen from 2000 to 2035. Spatial differentiation expanded; high-value carbon sink areas clustered in the mountains, and carbon hotspots expanded along the North China Plain. The potential for carbon neutrality declined. Thus, core forest land had to be strictly protected, and periurban carbon-sinking agriculture had to be developed to increase the region's potential for carbon neutrality. The modeling framework could be generalized for the sustainable management of fragile ecosystems worldwide.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111293"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144842235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Modeling and analysis of maize agroecosystem dynamics with stresses 胁迫下玉米农业生态系统动态建模与分析

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学

Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111308

Zisen Peng , Zhengyang Xiao , Hao Xu , Yuhang Yan , Wenqian Zhu , Yanghui Wu , Lifei Zheng , Yongsheng Wei

{"title":"Modeling and analysis of maize agroecosystem dynamics with stresses","authors":"Zisen Peng , Zhengyang Xiao , Hao Xu , Yuhang Yan , Wenqian Zhu , Yanghui Wu , Lifei Zheng , Yongsheng Wei","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111308","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111308","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Based on the Lotka–Volterra competitive equations, we developed a basic agroecosystem food web model using the corn agroecosystems of the U.S. Midwest as a case study. We present a dynamic model of a maize agroecosystem to quantify how various human management practices impact system stability and biodiversity. The model incorporates multiple populations and seasonal dynamics. We mathematically validated its stability and rationality through positive analysis, boundedness analysis, and periodic stability analysis. To investigate the effects of specific industrialized agricultural practices, we introduced the agricultural production cycle and chemical agents (insecticides and herbicides) into the model. We further assessed the pest control effect of introducing the little brown bat (<em>Myotis lucifugus</em>) on other components of the ecosystem. By analyzing the model-fitting results, we proposed a stability evaluation framework, a criterion for identifying beneficial species, and a threshold for determining the dominant inhibitory factors affecting corn. These tools allowed us to quantify the impact of each factor on the agroecosystem. Our findings indicate that specific industrialized agricultural practices significantly affect the modeled system, potentially reducing its biodiversity and ecological stability. In addition, we modelled the effects of chemical agents and bats on agricultural yields and ecosystem stability. These results provide a quantitative basis for optimizing sustainable agricultural management strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111308"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144830857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The relationship between pyrodiversity and biodiversity 热解多样性与生物多样性的关系

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学

Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111294

Anthony E. Fernando , Michael A. McCarthy

{"title":"The relationship between pyrodiversity and biodiversity","authors":"Anthony E. Fernando , Michael A. McCarthy","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111294","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111294","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The paradigm that \"pyrodiversity begets biodiversity\" postulates that biodiversity increases as the diversity of the fire regime, often measured by times since fire, in a region increases. The pyrodiversity paradigm was derived from a “thought experiment” rather than from explicit theory based on fire ecology and species’ responses to fire regimes. Empirical studies report a diverse range of responses, with researchers suggesting that this diversity can be explained by extra details such as the nuances of individual studies or the complexity of fire regimes and species’ responses. We explore the relationship between pyrodiversity and biodiversity by developing a simple model in which species respond only to time since fire, and calculate biodiversity metrics in landscapes exposed to different distributions of fire intervals. Biodiversity and pyrodiversity are defined in this theoretical framework, with a wide range of relationships between pyrodiversity and biodiversity predicted, even for this simple model in which time since fire is the only driving variable. Biodiversity can increase or decrease with pyrodiversity in different circumstances. An even wider range of relationships between biodiversity and pyrodiversity would be expected in real fire ecology situations that are more complex. Our theoretical analysis shows that inconsistent empirical support for the paradigm “pyrodiversity begets biodiversity” is unsurprising, and that a diversity of relationships between pyrodiversity and biodiversity is expected.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111294"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144830856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Multi-scenario spatial optimization for future development in arid and semi-arid regions based on early warning of ecological risk 基于生态风险预警的干旱半干旱区未来发展多情景空间优化

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学

Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-08-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111291

Yuxia Hu , Jirui Gong , Siqi Zhang , Weiyuan Zhang , Xuede Dong , Guisen Yang , Chenyi Yan , Ruijing Wang , Shangpeng Zhang , Tong Wang

{"title":"Multi-scenario spatial optimization for future development in arid and semi-arid regions based on early warning of ecological risk","authors":"Yuxia Hu , Jirui Gong , Siqi Zhang , Weiyuan Zhang , Xuede Dong , Guisen Yang , Chenyi Yan , Ruijing Wang , Shangpeng Zhang , Tong Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111291","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111291","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Human activities have significantly transformed land use, resulting in increasing ecological risks, especially in ecologically fragile arid and semi-arid regions. We developed a new early warning of ecological risk framework and predicted ecological risk under different scenarios, aimed at ensuring ecological security and enhancing ecosystem service delivery in regions such as China’s West Liao River Basin. From 2000 to 2020, the areas of forest and grassland space increased, which improved the overall environmental quality of the basin and decreased the ecological risk. However, from 2030 to 2050 under the current development trend scenario, the expansion of living space will increase the ecological risk. The ecological priority scenario offers enhanced environmental protection, suggesting that regions with high population density and fragile ecosystems where maximizing ecological benefits is critical. The economic development scenario, while more appropriate for regions that are ecologically stable and economically prosperous, can stimulate local economic growth. Both the ecological priority and economic development scenarios demonstrate superior control over ecological risk compared to the current development trend. The selection of appropriate strategies should be tailored to the unique characteristics of each region. Our results provide a new perspective for optimizing space and scientifically managing ecological risks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111291"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144827580","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0