Ecological Modelling最新文献

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Integrated SSP-RCP Scenarios for Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change and Land Use on Ecosystem Services in East Africa 东非气候变化和土地利用对生态系统服务影响的综合SSP-RCP情景模拟
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-03-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111092
Edovia Dufatanye Umwali , Xi Chen , Xuexi Ma , Zengkun Guo , Dickson Mbigi , Zhuo Zhang , Adeline Umugwaneza , Aboubakar Gasirabo , Jeanine Umuhoza
{"title":"Integrated SSP-RCP Scenarios for Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change and Land Use on Ecosystem Services in East Africa","authors":"Edovia Dufatanye Umwali ,&nbsp;Xi Chen ,&nbsp;Xuexi Ma ,&nbsp;Zengkun Guo ,&nbsp;Dickson Mbigi ,&nbsp;Zhuo Zhang ,&nbsp;Adeline Umugwaneza ,&nbsp;Aboubakar Gasirabo ,&nbsp;Jeanine Umuhoza","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111092","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111092","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ecosystem Services (ES) link natural ecosystems to human well-being and are crucial for sustainable development amid climate and land use challenges. This study presents a novel framework that integrates the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) and Integrated Valuation and Trade-offs of ESs (InVEST) model, with the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) derived from NEX-GDDP-CMIP6. This approach, the first of its kind in East Africa (EA), examined projected changes in water yield (WY), carbon storage (CS), and habitat quality (HQ) were assessed under SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios for the 2041-2060 (2050s) and 2081-2100 (2090s) compared to the historical period (2000-2020). The findings revealed regional variability in precipitation, with an increase of 0.2 in certain areas during the 2050s and a projected temperature rise of 0.7, with significant warming expected by 2090 under the SSP585. The FLUS model exhibited high accuracy, with an overall accuracy of 0.95 and a Kappa coefficient of 0.93. Projections indicate a substantial reduction in barren land (35.7%) and forestland (24.63%), alongside an increase in cropland (24.92%) and urban areas (106.71%) by 2090. All scenarios showed reductions in ESs, with WY decreasing up to 31.36% under SSP126 and CS projected to decline by 6.38% under SSP585 by 2050. Whereas HQ is expected to fall by 5.37% under SSP585 by 2090. These highlight the growing pressures of climate and land use change on ES, offering critical insights for reconciling environmental preservation with socioeconomic development in the region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"504 ","pages":"Article 111092"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143683000","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A hierarchical population model for the estimation of latent prey abundance and demographic rates of a nomadic predator 一个用于估计潜在猎物丰度和游牧捕食者人口比率的分层种群模型
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-03-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111077
Thomas V. Riecke , Pierre-Alain Ravussin , Ludovic Longchamp , Daniel Trolliet , Dan Gibson , Michael Schaub
{"title":"A hierarchical population model for the estimation of latent prey abundance and demographic rates of a nomadic predator","authors":"Thomas V. Riecke ,&nbsp;Pierre-Alain Ravussin ,&nbsp;Ludovic Longchamp ,&nbsp;Daniel Trolliet ,&nbsp;Dan Gibson ,&nbsp;Michael Schaub","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111077","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111077","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Linking the demographic parameters underlying population change to environmental conditions is a central goal of population demography. However, multicollinearity among processes in ecological studies can complicate parameter estimation and inference. We sought to demonstrate the use of structural equation modelling, a technique for estimating hypothesized causal pathways among collinear observed and unobserved variables, in the context of integrated population models. We monitored a population of Tengmalm’s owls(<em>Aegolius funereus</em>) breeding in the Jura Mountains of northwestern Switzerland and eastern France for 31 years (1990-2020) and collected data on captured prey items. We use concepts central to structural equation models (i.e., latent variables) and integrated population models to estimate the effects of latent prey abundance on Tengmalm’s owl demographic parameters. We observed strong positive effects of latent prey abundance during time <span><math><mi>t</mi></math></span> on clutch size, fledging probability, and immigration rates into the breeding population, and strong effects of positive changes in latent prey abundance from time <span><math><mi>t</mi></math></span> to <span><math><mrow><mi>t</mi><mo>+</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></math></span> on first-year and adult survival. We also observed long-term declines in immigration into the study area. Our work provides a straightforward example of incorporating concepts central to structural equation models (e.g., latent variables) to model environmental processes underlying demographic rates in integrated population models, and has interesting implications for metapopulation ecology of Tengmalm’s owl populations in Europe.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"504 ","pages":"Article 111077"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143654606","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spatially explicit modelling of woody plant encroachment: A review of models published from 2013 through 2022 木本植物入侵的空间显式模型:2013年至2022年发布的模型综述
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-03-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111095
Miranda R. Peterson, Hsiao-Hsuan Wang, William E. Grant
{"title":"Spatially explicit modelling of woody plant encroachment: A review of models published from 2013 through 2022","authors":"Miranda R. Peterson,&nbsp;Hsiao-Hsuan Wang,&nbsp;William E. Grant","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111095","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111095","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Grasslands cover approximately one-third-of the earth's land area, and many have been degraded by woody plant encroachment. A variety of spatially explicit simulation models have been developed to investigate different aspects of woody plant encroachment. In this study, we review the spatially explicit models of woody plant encroachment published from 2013 through 2022. We characterize the models regarding their nomenclature, focal geographical area, spatial and temporal scales, purpose, origin, and key processes. We then summarize our findings and provide some observations regarding the importance of spatially explicit models for representing the key factors and processes influencing woody plant encroachment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"504 ","pages":"Article 111095"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143654607","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Plant viability: Modeling the impacts of harvesting non-timber forest products in a fragmented landscape 植物生存能力:模拟在破碎景观中采伐非木材林产品的影响
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-03-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111080
Maria C.A. Leite , Ruth I. Oliva-Zúniga , Pedro J. Torres
{"title":"Plant viability: Modeling the impacts of harvesting non-timber forest products in a fragmented landscape","authors":"Maria C.A. Leite ,&nbsp;Ruth I. Oliva-Zúniga ,&nbsp;Pedro J. Torres","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111080","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111080","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we develop a mathematical model to explore the impact of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) harvesting and fragmentation on the viability of plant populations, employing a meta-population framework. Our aim is to investigate how harvesting rates and patch connectivity influence harvest yield while ensuring population viability. Our findings indicate that sustainable harvesting rates can be explicitly determined for metapopulations composed of two patches, highlighting the influence of patch connectivity and dispersal rates on maximum sustainable yield (<strong>MSY</strong>). Notably, the <strong>MSY</strong> does not always increase with higher connectivity; instead, it may exhibit non-monotonic behavior depending on the dispersal rate. Additionally, under certain conditions, a suitable harvesting strategy may involve concentrating harvesting efforts on a single patch to ensure population regeneration. These insights underscore the importance of adaptable management strategies in the sustainable harvesting of NTFPs and the conservation of plant populations in fragmented habitats.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"504 ","pages":"Article 111080"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143631896","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What grows, adapts and lives in the digital sphere? Systematic literature review on the dynamic modelling of flora and fauna in digital twins 是什么在数字领域生长、适应和生存?对数字双胞胎中动植物群动态建模的系统文献综述
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-03-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111091
Laura Mrosla , Henna Fabritius , Kristiina Kupper , Fabian Dembski , Pia Fricker
{"title":"What grows, adapts and lives in the digital sphere? Systematic literature review on the dynamic modelling of flora and fauna in digital twins","authors":"Laura Mrosla ,&nbsp;Henna Fabritius ,&nbsp;Kristiina Kupper ,&nbsp;Fabian Dembski ,&nbsp;Pia Fricker","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111091","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111091","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The modelling of flora and fauna is vital for understanding and digitally representing our environment, yet their dynamic modelling in digital twins lags behind human-made inventions like manufacturing and the built environment. The interdisciplinary nature of this research complicates tracking advancements, and no comprehensive overview exists. This Systematic Literature Review (SLR), using the PRISMA method, addresses this gap by analysing studies on dynamic modelling of flora and fauna in digital twins and 3D city models. It covers descriptive metrics and qualitative aspects, identifying key research fields, directions, users, and developers. Additionally, this SLR details on digital twin data, modelling techniques, actuators, user experience with human-computer interaction, and ethical considerations. The findings highlight that the digital twin concept is being increasingly applied to the dynamical modelling of flora and fauna. Moreover, the broad relevance of this research is demonstrated across various fields including ecology, forestry, urban studies, and agriculture, where diverse methods and technologies are used, though progress remains uneven. Currently, precision agriculture is leading the way in automated, bidirectional synchronisation between digital twins and their physical counterparts. Complementing traditional modelling techniques with AI and machine learning where appropriate, expands modelling capabilities. Meanwhile, multimodal interfaces enhance the immersive user experience. Despite these advances, challenges persist in data availability, foundational knowledge, complex interaction modelling, standardisation and transferability, underscoring the need for continued research. Digital twins for the biotic environment show promise in supporting United Nations Sustainable Development Goals 2, 11, 13, 14, and 15. This overview supports researchers and practitioners in developing digital twin applications which include flora and fauna.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"504 ","pages":"Article 111091"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143629292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Forest insect populations: Modeling of critical events as first- and second-order phase transitions 森林昆虫种群:作为一阶和二阶相变的关键事件建模
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-03-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111090
V.G. Soukhovolsky , O.V. Tarasova , A.V. Kovalev , Yu.D. Ivanova , S.V. Pavlushin , Y.B. Akhanaev , V.V. Martemyanov
{"title":"Forest insect populations: Modeling of critical events as first- and second-order phase transitions","authors":"V.G. Soukhovolsky ,&nbsp;O.V. Tarasova ,&nbsp;A.V. Kovalev ,&nbsp;Yu.D. Ivanova ,&nbsp;S.V. Pavlushin ,&nbsp;Y.B. Akhanaev ,&nbsp;V.V. Martemyanov","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111090","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111090","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this article, methods are examined for modeling of critical events in forest insect populations by describing the processes of development of a population outbreak as analogs of first- and second-order phase transitions in physical systems. Measurable parameters characterizing the phase transition processes are proposed. For several forest insect species, first-order phase transition models were analyzed, which allowed to characterize risks of insect outbreaks. Second-order phase transitions were used to describe a spatial distribution of insects among trees (food items) on sample plots. These transitions characterize critical frequency of individuals per victim unit (tree); after attaining this frequency, insects colonize and start consuming all food items. It was also shown that a second-order phase transition model can describe the interaction of a baculovirus with spongy moth caterpillars. This model helped to estimate the latent period of the baculovirus's impact on the insect population and the time required for absolute mortality of caterpillars at different doses of the baculovirus. The proposed approach requires minimal data on the state of an ecosystem.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"504 ","pages":"Article 111090"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143620002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Modelling the dynamics of soil moisture and soil water salinity in tropical saltmarshes 热带盐沼土壤水分和土壤水盐度动态模拟
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-03-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111089
Ronny Peters , Ângela Cristina Alves Reis , Ulf Mehlig , Marie-Christin Wimmler , Jonas Vollhüter , Uday Pimple , Britta Tietjen , Uta Berger
{"title":"Modelling the dynamics of soil moisture and soil water salinity in tropical saltmarshes","authors":"Ronny Peters ,&nbsp;Ângela Cristina Alves Reis ,&nbsp;Ulf Mehlig ,&nbsp;Marie-Christin Wimmler ,&nbsp;Jonas Vollhüter ,&nbsp;Uday Pimple ,&nbsp;Britta Tietjen ,&nbsp;Uta Berger","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111089","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111089","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tropical saltmarshes share the intertidal zone with mangroves. In contrast to saltmarshes of temperate latitudes, these only occupy the uppermost niche of the intertidal zone, and are characterised by periods of severe drought and hypersalinity in the upper soil during dry seasons. Like mangroves, they show pronounced species zonation patterns along elevation gradients. The primary driver behind these soil water patterns is the variation in tidal flooding frequency, especially notable in the upper tidal zone. Precipitation is the second main source of water, and evapotranspiration and plant transpiration are further factors shaping soil water dynamics and driving plant growth. To describe and comprehend the soil water processes and their dynamics in tropical saltmarshes, we introduce the hydrological model SALTFRED. This model aims to mechanistically predict soil water salinity and root zone soil moisture, elucidating the intricate differentiation of drought and salt stress within the saltmarsh. The model explicitly describes processes of infiltration, seepage and evapotranspiration, along with their influence on the salinity of the soil water. We demonstrate its suitability with an application to a specific study site on the Bragança Peninsula (Pará, Brazil). Utilising complete time series of tidal data and precipitation (for the year 2015), we predict drought and salt stress and compare simulated levels of stress with tolerance levels of the dominant vegetation types and saltmarsh species. Extreme salt and drought stress are defined as salt concentrations of <em>90</em> parts per thousand (ppt) and plant available water of <em>0.5</em> vol<em>%</em> (0.005 cm³ water per cm³ of soil), respectively. The results suggest that mangrove vegetation thrives where these extreme stress conditions are persistently not reached due to regular flooding by the tides. In the saltmarsh, as elevation increases and the frequency of spring tide flooding decreases, longer periods without water infiltration occur. As a result, the duration of salt stress events increases. In the higher parts of the saltmarsh, additional drought stress is predicted. Our results confirm a robust correlation between simulated levels of seasonally varying drought and salt stress and tolerance levels of the dominant saltmarsh species <em>Rhynchospora riparia, Fimbristylis cymosa</em>, and <em>Sporobolus virgincus</em> at the study site.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"504 ","pages":"Article 111089"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143610544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Synergizing farmland reverting and energy substitution programs in Wolong through agent-based modelling and cost-efficiency analysis 基于agent模型和成本效益分析的卧龙退耕还田与能源替代协同效应研究
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-03-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111079
Keyi Liu , Yufeng Chen , Liyan Xu , Xiao Zhang , Zilin Wang , Hailong Li , Yansheng Yang , Hong You , Dihua Li
{"title":"Synergizing farmland reverting and energy substitution programs in Wolong through agent-based modelling and cost-efficiency analysis","authors":"Keyi Liu ,&nbsp;Yufeng Chen ,&nbsp;Liyan Xu ,&nbsp;Xiao Zhang ,&nbsp;Zilin Wang ,&nbsp;Hailong Li ,&nbsp;Yansheng Yang ,&nbsp;Hong You ,&nbsp;Dihua Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111079","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111079","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Balancing human development with conservation necessitates ecological policies that optimize outcomes within limited budgets, highlighting the importance of cost-efficiency and local impact analysis. This study employs the Socio-Econ-Ecosystem Multipurpose Simulator (SEEMS), an Agent-Based Model (ABM) designed for simulating small-scale Coupled Human and Nature Systems (CHANS), to evaluate the cost-efficiency of two major ecology conservation programs: Grain-to-Green (G2G) and Firewood-to-Electricity (F2E). Focusing on China's Wolong National Reserve, a worldwide hot spot for flagship species conservation, the study evaluates the direct benefits of these programs, including reverted farmland area and firewood consumption, along with their combined indirect benefits on habitat quality, carbon emissions, and gross economic benefits. The findings are as follows: (1) The G2G program achieves optimal financial efficiency at approximately 500 CNY/Mu (∼1177.5 USD/ha), with diminishing returns observed beyond 1000 CNY/Mu (∼2355 USD/ha); (2) For the F2E program, the most fiscally cost-efficient option arises when the subsidized electricity price is at 0.4–0.5 CNY/kWh (∼0.063–0.079 USD/kWh), while further reductions of the prices to below 0.1 CNY/kWh (∼0.0157 USD/kWh) result in a diminishing cost-benefit ratio; (3) Comprehensive cost-efficiency analysis reveals no significant link between financial burden and carbon emissions, but a positive correlation with habitat quality and an inverted U-shaped relationship with total economic income; (4) Pareto analysis identifies 18 optimal dual-policy combinations for balancing carbon footprint, habitat quality, and gross economic benefits; (5) Posterior Pareto optimization further refines the selection of a specific policy scheme for a given realistic scenario. The analytical framework of this paper helps policymakers design economically viable and environmentally sustainable policies, addressing global conservation challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"504 ","pages":"Article 111079"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143610427","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Empirical dynamic modeling for prediction and control of pest populations 害虫种群预测与控制的经验动态模型
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-03-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111081
Bethany J. Johnson , Marcella M. Gomez , Stephan B. Munch
{"title":"Empirical dynamic modeling for prediction and control of pest populations","authors":"Bethany J. Johnson ,&nbsp;Marcella M. Gomez ,&nbsp;Stephan B. Munch","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111081","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111081","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Insect pests pose a threat to humans by jeopardizing food security in agricultural systems, acting as vectors for infectious diseases, and damaging forests and other ecosystems. Despite decades of research, effective pest management remains challenging. Incomplete understanding of the mechanisms behind pest population dynamics limits our ability to anticipate outbreaks. Hence, pest management is often reactive, meaning control actions are taken once outbreaks have already begun, allowing for damage to occur. Here we show that a data-driven model can effectively predict outbreaks, allowing us to optimize control strategies, targeting pests before outbreaks occur. Specifically, we explore empirical dynamic modeling paired with stochastic dynamic programming to keep insect populations within acceptable bounds. We show that this framework reduces outbreaks in several simulated and empirical scenarios. Our study provides a promising framework to reduce losses from pests.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"504 ","pages":"Article 111081"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143600807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Numerical simulation of plant lateral root stress perturbation during shallow coal seam mining in the semi-arid region of Western China 中国西部半干旱地区浅煤层开采过程中植物侧根应力扰动的数值模拟
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-03-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111072
Yong Guo , Ying Liu , Weihao Pei , Yuzhi Zhou , Shaogang Lei , Dongjiang Pan , Chuangang Gong , Xiaoyang Chen
{"title":"Numerical simulation of plant lateral root stress perturbation during shallow coal seam mining in the semi-arid region of Western China","authors":"Yong Guo ,&nbsp;Ying Liu ,&nbsp;Weihao Pei ,&nbsp;Yuzhi Zhou ,&nbsp;Shaogang Lei ,&nbsp;Dongjiang Pan ,&nbsp;Chuangang Gong ,&nbsp;Xiaoyang Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111072","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111072","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Plant lateral root damage is an important ecological problem of vegetation degradation in semi-arid mining areas in western China. The damage mechanism and influencing factors of plant lateral roots caused by stress changes in root-soil layer induced by mining urgently need to be explored in depth. Based on the field survey data of plant roots, combined with quasi-cohesion theory and anchoring theory, and through the control variable method, a numerical model considering four key parameters, namely mining height, advancing distance, mining speed and coal seam burial depth, was established by FLAC3D software to analyze the macroscopic mechanical disturbance characteristics of root-soil complex and plant lateral roots. The research results show that: the stress on the bottom of the root-soil layer above the goaf area is higher than that on the surface; During the advancement of the working face from 60 m to 110 m, the failure range of the plastic zone of the root-soil layer and the stress on the lateral roots of plants showed an increasing trend, and the stress on lateral roots increases up to 3.3 MPa when the working face advances from 80 m to 110 m; in the disturbance zone, the maximum stress of the lateral roots and the failure range of the plastic zone of the root-soil layer increase with the increase of mining height, but decrease with the increase of coal seam burial depth; the change of the mining speed has little effect on the stress of the lateral roots and the failure range of the plastic zone of the root-soil layer, the maximum stress difference on the lateral roots between the maximum and minimum mining rates is only about 0.58 MPa. In addition, compared with plant roots with only the main root, plant roots with lateral root structure show better tensile and shear resistance in the root-soil layer, which shows that the presence of lateral roots help to enhance the overall stability and damage resistance of plant roots. FLAC3D was used to construct a three-dimensional visualization numerical simulation model of plant lateral root, which revealed the macroscopic mechanical response mechanism of plant lateral root damage induced by mining, and clarified the influence of various factors on plant lateral root stress damage induced by mining.The research findings enrich the understanding of plant damage mechanisms induced by underground coal mining in semi-arid areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"504 ","pages":"Article 111072"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143610543","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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