Ecological Modelling最新文献

{"title":"Exploring household resilience indicators in the context of urban-rural linked water systems and post-disaster scenarios in Kathmandu valley","authors":"Namita Poudel,&nbsp;Rajib Shaw","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111320","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111320","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Water use efficiency has increased by 9 %, yet water stress and scarcity remain pressing global challenges. Additionally, unprecedented disruptions in water systems between supply and demand exacerbate the issue. In this context, households play a crucial role in communicating with relevant authorities about emergencies such as pipe leaks, disaster disruption to the water system, etc. However, if households are unwilling to share water or dissatisfied with the system, conflicts may arise, leading to water scarcity even during non-crisis periods. Although resilient water infrastructure is recognized, displacement due to disasters, protests, reconstruction, and potential labor shortages for future water projects underscore the importance of understanding household resilience. Therefore, this research aims to identify which household indicators help communities cope with disasters and support the water system, in addition to assessing the current household status in both demand and supply zones. Data were collected using two tools: focus group discussions with four groups and household surveys conducted with 438 respondents from Kathmandu valley, Nepal (urban, peri‑urban), and Melamchi (rural areas), divided into eight clusters. The findings revealed that 31 indicators under the PEISE framework (physical, economic, institutional, Social, and Environmental) are affected in the post-disaster context. In addition, critical indicators such as reduced water quantity in urban areas impacting revenue collection, and house damage and displacement due to flooding leading to labor shortages in production areas, illustrate how post-disaster displacement and damage undermine local support mechanisms essential for sustaining the water system. Overall, rural area is identified as low-resilience zone, highlighting the need for benefit-sharing programs (water- exchange- need based support) similar to those implemented in other cities, such as water benefit-sharing and payment for ecosystem services (PES).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111320"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144886344","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling the growth dynamics of Phragmites australis with flooding stress in the Middle Yangtze River","authors":"Junqiang Xia,&nbsp;Xi Shi,&nbsp;Meirong Zhou,&nbsp;Shengqi Liu,&nbsp;Shanshan Deng","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111314","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111314","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><em>Phragmites australis</em> is a common emergent plant in wetland ecosystems, and its growth process is closely related to various flooding conditions. A growth model was improved by incorporating the effects of water depth and inundation duration on <em>P. australis</em> growth. This model can simulate the growth processes of <em>P. australis</em> under different water depths and inundation durations, with validation results aligning well with measured data. Then the model was subsequently applied to simulate the growth process of <em>P. australis</em> on a typical floodplain of the Middle Yangtze River in 2019-2022. The results show that the aboveground biomass of <em>P. australis</em> decreased sharply due to the effect of flooding stress (with an inundation duration of 123 days and a maximum water depth of 5.64 m), resulting in a decline of 2176 g·m^-2 in biomass in 2020. The biomass reduction caused by flooding stress increased more rapidly with greater water depth and longer inundation duration. Therefore, the effect of flooding stress should not be ignored. In addition, good power function relationships were developed between the aboveground biomass reduction of <em>P. australis</em> and the number of inundation days or the days with water depth exceeding 2.0 m. The factor of flooding stress caused by water depth exceeding the inundation threshold played a dominant role in the growth dynamics of <em>Phragmites australis</em>.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111314"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144879263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Environmental quality and its impact on selective fishing — A computational perspective","authors":"S.G.F. Martins ,&nbsp;P.S. Pompeu ,&nbsp;S.M. de Souza ,&nbsp;S.A.B. Salgado","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111312","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111312","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study, using a selective fishing model which is an application of the Penna Model, it was verified the importance of considering environmental characteristics to understand the effects of selective fishing. When subjected to the same fishing-induced mortality, populations exploited in environments with greater resource availability experience lower selective pressure, resulting in less severe deleterious effects compared to those observed in environments with lower resource availability. This result draws attention to the need for fisheries management programs to consider environmental quality so that appropriate strategies can be defined for each aquatic environment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111312"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144879264","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A system dynamics model to assess the commercial viability of hydroponics product service system","authors":"Pallavi Paturu ,&nbsp;Sudhir Varadarajan","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111321","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111321","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Hydroponics, a soilless farming technique, is emerging as a sustainable alternative to traditional agriculture. However, large scale adoption of hydroponics is hampered by higher capital and production costs and inadequate technical expertise at the farm level. As a result, the manufacturers and entrepreneurs involved in hydroponics systems are exploring different business models to enhance commercial viability and adoption. Since these business models include a combination of products and services, they are better viewed as Product-Service systems (PSS). The objective of this study is to develop a System Dynamics (SD) model of a result-oriented hydroponics PSS to guide decisions on plant, energy, and nutrients to manage yield and production costs. The study uses the SD method to model the relationships between technical factors such as nutrient delivery, water quality, light, humidity, temperature, and PSS factors such as location choices, product and service quality. The model results reveal that light and humidity have a higher impact on crop yield when compared to factors such as flow rate, electrical conductivity, and nitrogen levels. The results also show that location choice, product, and service quality can affect production costs by 5–25 %. These insights contribute to a holistic understanding of hydroponics as a PSS, offering practical guidance for businesses, policymakers and researchers to enhance the commercial viability of hydroponic farming and promote sustainable food production.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111321"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144879369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Phosphorus dynamics in water and sediments in a large multi-use reservoir under extreme volume variation","authors":"Iran Eduardo Lima Neto","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111316","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111316","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Castanhão is the largest non-hydropower dam in Latin America, which was built in 2002 to serve as a multi-use strategic reservoir in the Brazilian semiarid. Although this reservoir reached 96 % of its capacity in 2009, a severe drought from 2012-2016 resulted in extreme variations in water storage (2 - 82 %) and total phosphorus (TP) in the water (1.0 ⋅ 10¹ - 2.2 ⋅ 10² mg/m³) and sediments (2.0 ⋅ 10⁵ - 1.4 ⋅ 10⁶ mg/m³), leading to massive fish mortalities and abrupt increases in water treatment costs. In this study, complete-mix TP models considering water and sediment compartments and several improvements compared to previous models such as distinct variabilities of water volume and hypoxic area were developed and tested for the entire study period (2008-2022), including floods and droughts. The model incorporating a stronger pattern of hypoxia in the wet period best represented TP dynamics in the reservoir, with acceptable Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE = 0.46) and percent bias (PBIAS = -8.98 %) for the water, as well as for the sediments (NSE = 0.80 and PBIAS = +0.39 %). Excepting for the output load, all the other TP fluxes decreased from wet to dry periods, following approximately the behavior of inflow and water volume. An average mass balance in the water showed that the TP sources from external load (25.3 %), fish-cage load (16.3 %) and release from anoxic sediments (8.2 %) were approximately equal to the TP sinks from settling (46.8 %) and output load (3.4 %). On the other hand, a mass balance in the sediments revealed that the TP source from settling (78.5 %) was substantially higher than the TP sinks from release (13.8 %) and burial (7.4 %). Model simulations until 2050 suggested a progressive TP increase both in the water and sediments. Moreover, a total load reduction of at least 80 % would be necessary to stabilize TP concentration in both compartments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111316"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144860355","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Individual behaviour and temperature: simulation of an insect parasitoid population","authors":"Julie Augustin ,&nbsp;Jacques Brodeur ,&nbsp;Guy Boivin ,&nbsp;Gaétan Bourgeois","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111309","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111309","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The impact of temperature on the physiology of insects has been extensively studied. Conversely, we know much less about the impact on insect behaviour. In the context of climate change, we urgently need to better understand the effect of temperature on animal behaviour, and to include these effects in predictive population models. To evaluate the importance of such inclusions, we created two temperature-based population dynamics simulation models of parasitoid’s life cycle. The first one is based on development, mortality and oviposition rate data, while the second model includes those plus behavioural components: mating, host searching and host exploitation. Including behaviours in the population dynamics model resulted in slightly lower predicted populations, but the change was small, suggesting that including behaviours did not increase the prediction efficiency. This is expected in temperature conditions under which the species has evolved, because individuals can behave optimally. Behaviours and development traits all had different thermal performance curves, with optimal temperature and tolerance range varying. Therefore, while the inclusion of behaviours did not change much the dynamics of simulated populations at intermediate temperature conditions, this would no longer hold true when temperatures become more extreme. In the context of climate change, extreme temperatures are expected to occur more frequently, thus strongly affecting insect behavioural performance, and likely resulting in changes in population dynamics. Consequently, behavioural components should be considered when studying more extreme conditions, because physiological components alone overlook certain effects of temperature on the life cycle of an individual.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111309"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144852010","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From theory to application: measuring development disparities in Mozambique through an Odum-inspired emergy framework","authors":"Estêvão Salvador Langa,&nbsp;Biagio F. Giannetti,&nbsp;Fábio Sevegnani,&nbsp;Feni Agostinho,&nbsp;Cecília M.V.B. Almeida","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111287","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111287","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study proposes an integrative framework for assessing development disparities grounded in Howard T. Odum’s systems ecology and emergy theory. Drawing upon the Five Sector Sustainability (5SEnSU) model, the framework captures economic, environmental, and social dimensions of performance through a systemic and energetically grounded lens. Using Mozambique and its trade relationships within and beyond the Southern African Development Community (SADC) as a case study, the IDEAS index (Integrated Development Emergy Adjusted Score) is introduced. It is based on five normalized indicators: GDP per unit of emergy, GDP per capita, GDP per workforce, GDP per CO₂ emissions, and GDP per population below the poverty line. Results for 2014 reveal pronounced structural disparities, with Mozambique exhibiting one of the lowest performances (IDEAS = 0.076) and disparity ratios exceeding 12 in comparison to developed countries. By embedding Odum’s principles of energy hierarchy, feedback, and self-organization, the proposed framework offers a robust tool for diagnosing systemic imbalances and guiding ecologically informed development strategies. This contribution aims to operationalize Odum’s legacy within international sustainability assessments and offers a more coherent alternative to conventional economically centered metrics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111287"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144830858","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Optimal control strategies to curtail cacao swollen-shoot virus infection and maximize net economic benefit","authors":"Maria C.A. Leite ,&nbsp;Folashade B. Agusto ,&nbsp;Benito Chen-Charpentier ,&nbsp;Frank Owusu-Ansah ,&nbsp;Owusu Domfeh","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111284","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111284","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Cacao production in West Africa is being endangered by the cacao swollen shoot disease. The virus that causes the disease is spread by mealybugs. A mild strain of the virus can be used to inoculate susceptible (healthy) seedlings, thus reducing impacts of the closely related severe virus on such trees, which may also reduce spread of the disease. In the present study, we developed a mathematical model based on ordinary differential equations with an age structure that models the temporal dynamics of susceptible, inoculated, and severely infected trees and their interaction with mealybugs. Optimal control approaches integrated with this model were employed to identify the most effective strategy for maximizing the economic net benefit for farmers by adjusting the ratio of susceptible to inoculated seedlings utilized to replace severely infected trees. Two scenarios that reflected different strategies for cutting and replacing infected trees were considered. Numerical simulations using real data were performed. Based on model assumptions and control strategies studied, the optimal strategy was to establish a farm with some inoculated seedlings, remove only severely infected trees from the field, and replace them with inoculated seedlings for approximately 10 years and then with the susceptible seedlings. Further study employing models that incorporate additional processes and extended data sets is essential to assess the effectiveness of this strategy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111284"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144842374","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Systems modeling for agroecology and land restoration","authors":"Luigi Conte ,&nbsp;Federico Surra ,&nbsp;Sebastiano Favarin ,&nbsp;Vito Comar ,&nbsp;Francesco Gonella","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111307","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111307","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>At the time of the development of H.T. Odum’s energy system theory, the field of agroecology was not yet defined as a scientific discipline. Nevertheless, minimal models were already proposed to describe what today are referred to as agroecological and land restoration practices. In this work, we review literature from the early 1970s to nowadays by tracing a red thread to connect the original formulation of the energy system language with the current understanding of agroecology and land restoration. In the light of this picture, we draw a general application of the energy systems language and modeling to describe land use and land restoration dynamics. We apply this scheme to model and reproduce the land use dynamics of a real restoration project led by a farmers’ family in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. The case study of Sitio Luciana shows the transformation of a monocultural and partially degraded land into a biodiverse, food-producing area by developing a complex agroecosystem owing to human work and farmers’ local ecological knowledge. As an application of the energy system language, we build a dynamical model that closely reproduces observed GIS-retrieved patterns (<em>global RMSE ∼2%</em>), highlighting human-mediated ecological succession—targeted at restoring Atlantic Forest—as key to agroecosystems development, and offering scientific validation of the farmers’ local ecological knowledge. This work shows that the energy systems theory and modelling approach, as inherited from H.T. Odum, can: 1) deepen the understanding of local agroecosystem and land system dynamics, including human management; 2) inform the development of non-linear models grounded in both scientific and local knowledge; and 3) offer conceptual guidance for land management and policy strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111307"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144830859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Snow leopard connectivity through trans-boundary areas surrounding the Dzungarian Basin in Kazakhstan","authors":"Alexey Grachev ,&nbsp;Yuriy Grachev ,&nbsp;Maxim Bespalov ,&nbsp;Saltore Saparbayev ,&nbsp;Yerlik Baydavletov ,&nbsp;Dina Konysbayeva ,&nbsp;Philip Riordan ,&nbsp;Luciano Atzeni","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111281","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111281","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The assessment of landscape connectivity is central to the development of robust conservation strategies. Such knowledge is particularly important to understand isolation and dispersal patterns of wildlife species. Using snow leopard (<em>Panthera uncia</em>) occurrence data from Kazakhstan, this study sought to explore connectivity patterns in trans-boundary areas, with a particular emphasis on the Dzungarian basin, a geographic feature regarded as a barrier to snow leopard movement and range connectivity. We employed a multiple-scales species distribution model to reveal drivers of snow leopard occurrence, generating also a reference model reflecting the historical distribution of snow leopards in the country. We then adopted resistant kernels and factorial least-cost paths to infer core areas to snow leopard persistence and connectivity corridors throughout the study area. Snow leopard occurrence was driven by fine-scale topographic attributes and the configuration of open areas and forest patches. Kazakhstan possessed a low proportion of core patches but hosted critical stepping-stone areas to range connectivity along borders. Factorial least-cost paths suggested limited connectivity through trans-boundary areas surrounding the Dzungarian Basin in Kazakhstan, which only appeared as stepping-stone patches when snow leopard dispersal was high, suggesting the existence of source-sink population dynamics. Conservation efforts must be directed to ensuring and restoring functional connectivity across the main trans-boundary mountain ranges and from these to the stepping-stone core patches in the Dzungarian basin. Increased monitoring efforts in trans-boundary areas and collaboration among range countries are advocated to improve knowledge on snow leopard dynamics in this part of its range.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111281"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144842234","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}