Ecological Modelling最新文献

{"title":"Drivers of aboveground biomass in Quercus wutaishanica Mayr forests based on random forest and structural equation modeling: A cross-scale analysis","authors":"Shuaishuai Ma ,&nbsp;Huayong Zhang ,&nbsp;Zhongyu Wang ,&nbsp;Hengchao Zou ,&nbsp;Xiaona Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111113","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111113","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A comprehensive understanding of vegetation biomass is essential to gain deeper insights into the global carbon cycle. <em>Quercus wutaishanica</em> Mayr forests are the dominant and established species in temperate deciduous broad-leaved forests in China. They play a significant role in the ecological functions and carbon sequestration of forests. At present, the drivers and influencing mechanisms of aboveground biomass (AGB) of <em>Q. wutaishanica</em> forests have not been clearly quantified across different scales. In this study, we examined the effects of abiotic factors, encompassing climatic conditions and soil properties, and biotic factors that involve grass coverage and forest age, and disturbances on the AGB of <em>Q. wutaishanica</em> forests at overall and 15 vegetation regionalization scales in China using random forest (RF) and piecewise structural equation modeling (piecewiseSEM). The results from the RF model and piecewiseSEM explained 68 % and 47 % of the variance in AGB, respectively, at the overall scale. Climatic factors represented by temperature seasonality (TS) and climate moisture index (CMI) primarily shaped community biomass patterns overall. These factors affected AGB directly and indirectly by influencing edaphic and biotic factors, respectively. In addition, the AGB was mainly constrained by significant seasonal temperature variations or inadequate moisture. The direct effect of biotic factors, specifically forestage and grass coverage, on AGB was more pronounced at the regional than at the overall scale. The dominant factors in the adjacent vegetation zones exhibited a degree of geographical continuity. These findings represented an essential reference for carbon cycling mechanisms within terrestrial ecosystems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"505 ","pages":"Article 111113"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143799249","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unveiling the impacts of noise pollution on marine fish community dynamics","authors":"Liyun Hou ,&nbsp;Yan Lu ,&nbsp;Nuo Xu ,&nbsp;Lai Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111117","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111117","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Anthropogenic noise pollution is increasingly recognized as a critical threat to marine ecosystems, with well-documented impacts on fish physiology at the individual-level. However, a significant research gap remains in understanding how these individual-level disruptions scale up to influence community and ecosystem dynamics. To address this, we expand a size-based marine fish community model to incorporate noise-induced disruptions across four physiological pathways: food intake, energy expenditure, mortality, and reproductive output. Our results reveal that the total fish biomass declines across all pathways as noise increases, with particularly pronounced declines when energy expenditure, mortality, and reproduction are impacted. Demersal fish exhibit resilience to multiple disturbances, whereas large pelagic fish are highly sensitive to noise-induced increases in energy expenditure and mortality. The overall impact of noise on fish community depends not only on the severity of physiological disruptions, but also on the combination of functional types affected and the physiological pathways disturbed. Our model underscores the role of compensatory dynamics among fish functional types, which can buffer community biomass declines and expand regions of stable coexistence, even when large pelagic fish face extinction. However, severe noise impacts still pose risk of system collapse, with potential extinctions across all fish functional types. These findings emphasize the significance of compensatory dynamics in enhancing system stability against underwater noise. Our study provides new insights in understanding the community-level impacts of noise pollution, highlighting the need for further field studies and comprehensive noise regulations to ensure ecosystem stability and biodiversity conservation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"505 ","pages":"Article 111117"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143791020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Combining national forest inventories reveals distinct role of climate on tree recruitment in European forests","authors":"Louis A. König ,&nbsp;Frits Mohren ,&nbsp;Mart-Jan Schelhaas ,&nbsp;Julen Astigarraga ,&nbsp;Emil Cienciala ,&nbsp;Roman Flury ,&nbsp;Jonas Fridman ,&nbsp;Leen Govaere ,&nbsp;Aleksi Lehtonen ,&nbsp;Adriane E. Muelbert ,&nbsp;Thomas A.M. Pugh ,&nbsp;Brigitte Rohner ,&nbsp;Paloma Ruiz-Benito ,&nbsp;Susanne Suvanto ,&nbsp;Andrzej Talarczyk ,&nbsp;Miguel A. Zavala ,&nbsp;Jose Medina Vega ,&nbsp;Igor Staritsky ,&nbsp;Geerten Hengeveld ,&nbsp;Gert-Jan Nabuurs","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111112","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111112","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tree recruitment forms an essential process in forest growth models as it determines the amount and composition of the next generation of trees and, hence, the provision of forest ecosystem services over long time spans. With global change and the hereby associated changes in environmental conditions and forest management adaptations, the common static tree recruitment modelling approaches have become largely obsolete and necessitated the development of more dynamic models. Limited by the availability of data for the parameterisation of tree recruitment processes, such models have only been developed for single species or national frameworks and largely failed to detect climatic influences. In this study, we developed a dynamic tree recruitment model for Europe, utilising National Forest Inventory data from 8 countries with more than 95,000 repeated plot observations and nearly 138,000 individual tree recruitment events. We investigated the effect of forest management, forest structure, soil characteristics, nutrient deposition and five groups of weather and climate variables on the quantity and the species composition of recruiting trees. The climatic groups spanned annual averages, intra annual averages, annual variability, intra annual extremes and a combination of the aforementioned groups. The model with the combination of climate and weather variables outperformed all other groups. We found distinct climatic effects on tree recruitment quantities linked to water limitations and temperature extremes. The results as such showed that tree recruitment quantities benefit from stable climatic conditions, high precipitation and suffer from high maximum temperatures. Increasing temperatures also facilitate the share of recruiting broadleaves. The recruitment species was largely determined by the lead species in a plot, indicating the importance of seed limitation. Furthermore, the results confirm the important role of forest structure in tree recruitment and enable forest managers to steer the next generation of trees. Especially multi-species stands show a clear advantage over single species stands regarding tree recruitment quantities and diverse species compositions. Our research enables dynamic and state-of-the-art recruitment simulations across forests in Europe. It presents a reproducible method that can be applied to forest simulation modelling frameworks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"505 ","pages":"Article 111112"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143791016","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating comprehensive watershed management sustainability based on the emergy ecological footprint model: A case study of Hainan Island, China","authors":"Xudong Lu ,&nbsp;Jiadong Chen ,&nbsp;Jianchao Guo ,&nbsp;Hui Wu ,&nbsp;Qin Zuo ,&nbsp;Yizhuang Chen ,&nbsp;Xian Huang ,&nbsp;Shi Qi","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111120","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111120","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Comprehensive watershed management, which realizes the protection, optimal utilization and ecological restoration of regional soil and water resources is the primary method for controlling soil and water loss in China. However, the deployment of soil erosion control measures requires many resources that increase the environmental load and thus impact ecosystem sustainability. In this study, an emergy ecological footprint model based on emergy theory was developed, and to assess the sustainability of a comprehensive watershed management ecosystem on Hainan Island, China. The results show that: (1) Among the input resources, the emergy ecological footprint (EEF) of machinery was the largest, at 3213.89 hm²; among the construction resources, high-strength materials such as stone, concrete and steel bars were mainly used, and the EEF was greater than 60 %. (2) The primary sources of EEF for comprehensive watershed management were engineering measures project (8554.33 hm²), at &gt;92 %. Gulley erosion control (GEC) was the largest source, followed by slope water works (SWW) and field roads (FR). (3) Renewable resources provide the main ecological carrying capacity (ECC) of the comprehensive watershed management ecosystem; however, the sum of ecological and economic benefit ECCs is 23.92 %. (4) Initially, the ecological profit and loss of the comprehensive watershed management ecosystem (CWME) was −7099.81 hm², and the ecological footprint intensity was 4.28, indicating an ecological deficit, which is not conducive to sustainable development. However, an ecological turning point occurred in 2025: the cumulative ECC exceeded the cumulative EEF, at which point CWME achieved an ecological surplus. Therefore, although the preconstruction period generates considerable ecological pressure, overall, comprehensive watershed management supports sustainable development of the ecological environment. This study provides new trade-off ideas for ecological restoration projects such as comprehensive watershed management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"505 ","pages":"Article 111120"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143791019","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Optimising profits from timber harvest and the biodiversity conservation value in a central European beech forest using a novel bioeconomic forestry model","authors":"Markus E. Schorn ,&nbsp;Martin F. Quaas ,&nbsp;Hanna Schenk ,&nbsp;Christian Wirth ,&nbsp;Nadja Rüger","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111108","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111108","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How can we meet economic objectives of timber harvesting while maintaining the functioning of diverse forest ecosystems? Existing forest models that address this type of question are often complex, data-intensive, challenging to couple with economic optimisation models, or can not easily be generalised for uneven-aged mixed-species forests. Here, we develop an ecological-economic optimisation model that combines ecological realism with mathematical tractability and, thus, the ability to be optimised numerically. This approach makes one of the best and most widely tested inventory-calibrated forest simulation models available for rapid economic analyses. As a proof-of-concept, we apply the model to a beech-dominated forest in the Hainich-Dün region in Thuringia, Germany. The ecological module is the Perfect Plasticity Approximation (PPA) demographic forest model that simulates forest dynamics based on individual tree growth and survival rates in the canopy and understory layers, respectively, as well as recruitment rates. We used repeated forest inventory data from a 28-ha forest plot to quantify these demographic rates and validated the predictions of the ecological module against the structure of old-growth beech forests in Europe. The economic module includes the optimization of the present value of net revenues (market revenues net of harvesting cost) from harvesting timber. We use Pareto fronts to quantify the trade-off between the economic and the biodiversity conservation value of the forest. As an indicator of the biodiversity conservation value of the forest, we use the number of retained potential habitat trees (&gt;70 cm diameter). The forest model delivered reasonable predictions of structural attributes of unmanaged old-growth beech forests. When net revenues from timber harvesting were maximised, trees were logged when they reached 60 cm (no discounting) or 40 cm (discounting with 1.5 % interest rate) in diameter. This is similar to current management practices in beech forests. We found an approximately linear trade-off between steady-state timber net revenues and the number of retained habitat trees and that compensation programs currently implemented in Germany cover considerably higher costs for the retention of 10 habitat trees per hectare (240 Euros/ha/y) than we observe (no discounting: 109 Euros/ha/y; discounting: 89 Euros/ha/y in lost steady-state net revenues). We established a generic ecological-economic modelling framework that reliably represents forest dynamics and identifies optimal harvesting regimes over the full set of feasible strategies. The framework can easily be extended to different forest types, to mixed-species forests, and to the optimisation of multiple ecosystem services.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"505 ","pages":"Article 111108"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143785246","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Forecasting the risk of Phytophthora cinnamomi related-decline in Mediterranean forest ecosystems under climate change scenarios","authors":"Adrián Cidre-González ,&nbsp;Francisco José Ruiz-Gómez ,&nbsp;Francisco Javier Bonet ,&nbsp;Pablo González-Moreno","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111115","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111115","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><em>P. cinnamomi</em> is an invasive pathogen which threatens the evergreen oak and sweet chestnut ecosystems in the Mediterranean Basin. Understanding the distribution of this forest pathogen remains uncertain due to the challenges in accurately assessing their presence until symptoms become apparent, making it challenging to anticipate its occurrence. In this study, we investigated the distribution and suitability of <em>P. cinnamomi</em> in France, Italy, Portugal, and Spain implementing a hybrid model (i.e. correlative and process-based) with the validation of a total of 527 recorded occurrences. We used a correlative model incorporating two categories of abiotic environmental variables: edaphic and topographic. Additionally, we utilized three process-based models accounting for key climate factors and considering earth observation data with high temporal resolution. Specifically, we estimated survival under extreme minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as growth risk during the growing season as a proxy of the severity of the pathogen. The combination of these four models yielded a more reliable estimation of the pathogen's distribution. Our findings revealed that higher probability of <em>P. cinnamomi</em> presence currently stem from acidic and less nutrient rich soils. Among the process-based models, the spring growth risk model displayed the most significant variation across the study area, with an expected increase over time. Nevertheless, the survival of <em>P. cinnamomi</em> during summer is predicted to limit its presence in certain areas of the Iberian Peninsula in the long term, particularly under higher emissions scenarios. Interestingly, the results also indicate a potential enhancement in the growth of <em>P. cinnamomi</em> in some regions, while simultaneously noting a decrease in summer survival in those same areas. These observations underscore the complexity and dynamic nature of pathogen distribution and emphasize the importance of considering multiple factors to gain a comprehensive understanding of its potential impact.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"505 ","pages":"Article 111115"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143785245","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Current bioclimatic suitability and climate change impacts on the risk of cacao moniliasis invasion in Pará","authors":"Vandeilson Belfort Moura ,&nbsp;Lucionila Pimentel Pantoja ,&nbsp;Euclides Holanda Cavalcante Filho ,&nbsp;Rafael Antônio Haber ,&nbsp;Victor Leandro-Silva ,&nbsp;Deborah Luciany Pires Costa ,&nbsp;Miguel Alves Júnior ,&nbsp;Tayssa Menezes Franco ,&nbsp;Maryelle Kleyce Machado Nery ,&nbsp;Matheus Lima Rua ,&nbsp;Paulo Jorge de Oliveira Ponte de Souza","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111106","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111106","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The arrival of cacao frosty pod rot (<em>Moniliophthora roreri</em>) in the Brazilian Amazon increases the risk of pest invasion in cacao-producing areas of Pará, potentially causing losses of up to 100 % of production, as observed in outbreaks of the pest in Tropical America. Thus, the objective was to identify and quantify the potential and future bioclimatic suitability, as well as risk pathways in the movement of <em>M. roreri</em>, to support the strategic planning of phytosanitary defense management in the state of Pará. The ecological niche model was developed using 49 occurrence points of the pest in Tropical America, elevation data, five bioclimatic variables under current conditions, and projections from SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 pathways for the periods 2041–2060 and 2081–2100, based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) available on WorldClim. The model indicated high bioclimatic risk areas for invasion in Juruti, Jacareacanga, Terra Santa, and Oriximiná, as well as broad potential bioclimatic suitability in cacao-producing regions (Transamazônica and Transcametá). All future scenarios suggest an increase in temperature, a decrease in precipitation, and a potentially unsuitable climate for pest survival in Pará, with reductions of 5.3 % and 3.8 % under the SSP1-2.6 pathway, and greater impacts under SSP5-8.5, with 5.7 % and 12.12 %, respectively, for the periods 2041–2060 and 2081–2100, compared to the potential projection. There will be cacao-producing areas with medium to low bioclimatic risk potential under climate change conditions, where the pathogen-host relationship may undergo changes, especially in the Transamazônica region. The ecological niche model indicates the need for urgent monitoring actions in Juruti and Jacareacanga, assisting in planning and decision-making to combat <em>M. roreri</em>, protect plant health, and ensure the competitiveness of the cacao production chain in the state of Pará.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"505 ","pages":"Article 111106"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143783414","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatiotemporal decoupling of CO₂ and warming effects in arid grasslands: Grazing-mediated vulnerabilities in Central Asia (2005–2050)","authors":"Shihua Zhu ,&nbsp;Ziwei Pei ,&nbsp;Yachun Li ,&nbsp;Xin Hang ,&nbsp;Meng Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111114","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111114","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Drylands, covering 40 % of the global terrestrial surface, play a critical role in carbon sequestration and ecological security but face escalating pressures from climate change and anthropogenic activities. Central Asia (CAS), a temperate dryland hotspot, is experiencing rapid warming, altered precipitation patterns, and intensifying grazing pressure, yet the combined impacts of these drivers on grassland carbon dynamics remain poorly quantified. Using an enhanced Arid Ecosystem Model (AEM) integrated with a dynamic grazing module, this study investigated the spatiotemporal responses of net primary productivity (NPP) in CAS grasslands to future climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and grazing intensification from 2005 to 2050. Our simulations revealed that regional NPP increased by 11 % (RCP4.5) and 14 % (RCP8.5), driven primarily by CO₂ fertilization (contributing 9–13 %) and precipitation variability. However, warming exhibited spatially heterogeneous effects, exacerbating NPP declines in arid lowlands while enhancing productivity in high-altitude meadows. Grazing reduced NPP by 26–34 %, with interactive effects between climatic and anthropogenic factors amplifying uncertainties. Notably, precipitation dominated interannual NPP variability (<em>R</em> = 0.64–0.65, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.01), whereas temperature exhibited weak correlations (<em>R</em> = 0.10–0.20, <em>p</em> &gt; 0.05). These findings underscore the vulnerability of CAS grasslands to compounded climatic and grazing pressures, emphasizing the need for adaptive management strategies to balance ecological resilience and pastoral livelihoods under global change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"505 ","pages":"Article 111114"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143776717","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Construction and evaluation of the Panjin wetland ecological network based on the minimum cumulative resistance model","authors":"Yujia Lu,&nbsp;Qian Cheng,&nbsp;Meiqing Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111118","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111118","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ecological connectivity is crucial for preserving biodiversity and can successfully integrate isolated habitats. The study constructed the ecological network framework of the Panjin wetland using the minimum cumulative resistance model and gravity model. The ecological network was evaluated based on the landscape connectivity index method, and suggestions were given to optimize the zoning of the landscape pattern. Results showed that: (1) The level of interaction among various ecological source sites varies with distance and area. (2) The stability of the ecological network in the Panjin wetland was improved by increasing the ecological sources. The resulting ecological network had an α-index of 0.20, a β-index of 1.30, and an γ-index of 0.48, indicating a certain level of optimization and enhancement potential. (3) The study area was divided into four zones, each of which was analyzed and recommendations were made to achieve a stable development of the ecosystem.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"505 ","pages":"Article 111118"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143783524","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamic energy budget (DEB) parameter estimation for the globally invasive Quagga Mussel (Dreissena rostriformis bugensis)","authors":"T. Pu ,&nbsp;S.S. Keretz ,&nbsp;A.K. Elgin ,&nbsp;C.M. Godwin ,&nbsp;M.D. Rowe ,&nbsp;H.J. Carrick ,&nbsp;P.W. Glyshaw ,&nbsp;R.M. Pietscher ,&nbsp;H.A. Vanderploeg","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111100","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111100","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Impacts of <em>Dreissena</em> spp. on infrastructure, nutrient cycling, and productivity in invaded ecosystems have been well-documented. These effects are influenced by mussel density, growth, and reproduction; therefore, there is a need to parameterize a dreissenid bioenergetic model that can be incorporated into lake management decision support tools. Since Quagga Mussels (<em>D. rostriformis bugensis</em>) are the most common dreissenid species in the Laurentian Great Lakes, we compiled existing data from the past 20 years of literature to estimate Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model parameters for Quagga Mussels to predict mussel growth, filtration, temperature dependence, and nutrient fluxes. Our estimations for shape coefficient, maximum reserve density, Arrhenius temperature, surface area-specific ingestion rate, and surface area-specific searching rate were within the range of previously published DEB parameters for bivalves, with key differences that we relate to Quagga Mussel success in the Great Lakes through growth model simulations. Additionally, since dreissenids feed differentially on available prey, selectivity coefficients for common taxonomic algal groups and sizes were estimated which can be used to calculate effective food concentrations and estimate the environmentally available food density for Quagga Mussels. Finally, we developed an initial calibration of a DEB model in order to predict Quagga Mussel clearance rates in response to varying environmental conditions. Since field-collected data are not designed for precise parameter estimation, significant uncertainties in parameter estimates currently persist, highlighting the need for well-controlled laboratory experiments. The components of this model hold potential for integration into biogeochemical models to elucidate mussel effects on nutrient cycling and their response to future environmental changes. This integration enhances our understanding of ecosystem dynamics and can inform effective management strategies for invasive species in aquatic environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"505 ","pages":"Article 111100"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143769345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}