Ecological Modelling最新文献

{"title":"The aerobic scope is clearly linked to the supply–demand spectrum as quantified by DEB theory","authors":"Christine E. Verhille ,&nbsp;Sebastiaan A.L.M. Kooijman","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111479","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111479","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Supply-species typically eat what is available, while demand-species eat what they need, almost independently of what is available. The trait ‘supply stress’ quantifies the supply–demand spectrum, in the context of the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory. This dimensionless trait is defined as the maturity maintenance times the squared somatic maintenance, divided by the cubed assimilation. This function of DEB parameters is mostly estimated from data on growth, reproduction and life history, typically applied for fully grown individuals. Only a minority of the over 7300 species in the Add-my-Pet collection also have respiration data, combined with other data. Consistent with a set of traits that characterizes the supply/demand spectrum, birds and mammals score high on the supply stress, reptiles, amphibians, cartilaginous fish score moderate and ray-finned fish and invertebrates score low. The structure of the standard DEB model explains why species must have a low supply stress to allocate a large fraction of their assimilation to reproduction. We show this for large taxa, but also for rodents, compared to carnivorans, where rodents have a lower position in the food chain. We list and discuss ecophysiological properties that characterize the spectrum. A decade ago, the factorial aerobic scope (FAS), i.e. the ratio of the maximum and basal metabolic rate (MMR and BMR), was predicted to be high for species at the demand-end of the spectrum, and low for those at the supply-end. The aim of this paper is to test this prediction for respiration data from the literature. Our conclusion is that the FAS indeed increases for increasing supply stress, but the scatter is substantial. The FAS roughly increases from 3.2 at zero supply stress to 32 at maximum supply stress. We discuss an application of this finding for the estimation of the maturity maintenance rate coefficient from data, which is otherwise difficult with simple data. We also discuss the large scatter of respiration rates and show, with a computer simulation study of the standard DEB model, that a little scatter in food intake translates into a much larger scatter of respiration rates. Despite the scatter, the measured BMR was found to be close to the DEB-predicted field metabolic rate. This is remarkable because DEB theory makes no direct assumptions about respiration, but can still predict it exploiting the conservation laws for the chemical elements C, H, O and N. Our findings not only suggest functionalities of the aerobic scope in a wider context, but also support the concept of maturity maintenance, which is key to DEB theory, but hard to make concrete.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"514 ","pages":"Article 111479"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145939871","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Indicators for lake environmental assessment considering water quality and biological resources: Analysis using a food chain model with the Monte Carlo method","authors":"Yuichi Sato,&nbsp;Kazuhide Hayakawa","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111455","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111455","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Lakes are globally important freshwater resources, and their sustainable management requires not only controlling eutrophication but also maintaining biological productivity and ecosystem health. In this study, we proposed a statistical method to analyze the relationships among indicators of water quality and biological resources using a food chain model combined with the Monte Carlo method. This approach overcomes the limitations of conventional mathematical models, specifically their dependence on unknown parameters and the resulting uncertainty. The method was applied to Lake Biwa to identify indicators that contribute to both water quality improvement and enhancement of biological resources including fish stocks. The results showed that the biomass ratio of planktivorous fish to phytoplankton and the integrated trophic position (iTP) were positively associated with higher trophic transfer efficiencies (TE), indicating the importance of efficient energy flow through the food chain. A higher phosphorus-to-carbon (P:C) ratio in phytoplankton was also linked to improved fish biomass and water clarity. In contrast, dissolved phosphorus (DP) concentration showed no clear relationship with phytoplankton biomass and did not serve as a useful predictor under stable nutrient loading conditions. When a 1.5-fold increase in DP loading was simulated, changes in biomass and nutrient concentrations were small, suggesting that internal nutrient recycling plays a dominant role in the phosphorus dynamics in Lake Biwa. Therefore, simply increasing nutrient inputs to enhance fish biomass is unlikely to produce the desired effects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"514 ","pages":"Article 111455"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145939872","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Novel functional dissimilarity measures bridging species- and trait-based community analyses","authors":"Dénes Schmera ,&nbsp;Carlo Ricotta ,&nbsp;János Podani","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111492","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111492","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Quantifying dissimilarity between ecological communities is fundamental to functional community ecology. In this study, we develop a conceptual and analytical framework that integrates species-based and trait-based dissimilarity measures. The core of the proposed approach involves two steps: the first computes the products of species abundances and trait values, while the second combines products into <em>aggregated trait abundances</em> (ATAs) for use in both species- and trait-based analyses. Building upon the additive decomposition of the Marczewski-Steinhaus and Bray-Curtis indices into difference and replacement components, we introduce a suite of novel methods that allow for the independent weighting of species abundances and trait values. We first detail the methodology and elucidate its conceptual foundations. Subsequently, we assess its performance using both illustrative toy examples and ecologically realistic simulated datasets. To demonstrate its practical utility, we apply the method to compare macroinvertebrate assemblages from natural and anthropogenically impacted stream sections. Our findings indicate that the proposed framework provides a continuum between traditional species-based and trait-based approaches. Finally, we offer practical guidance for ecologists on selecting the most appropriate dissimilarity measure based on specific research objectives and data characteristics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"514 ","pages":"Article 111492"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A semi-automated sensitivity-based approach for simplifying marine biogeochemical models for targeted applications: A case study with the Eco3M-MED model","authors":"Yutong Zhang ,&nbsp;Melika Baklouti ,&nbsp;Pierre Brasseur ,&nbsp;Laurent Debreu","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111491","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111491","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Marine biogeochemical models are being increasingly used to support scenario-based analyses of climate change and ecosystem dynamics. However, their high structural complexity and large parameter space often limit computational efficiency, interpretability, and adaptability in applications requiring the exploration of many scenarios. To address these issues, we propose a Semi-Automated Iterative Simplification (SAIS) approach that integrates local sensitivity analysis with model mechanistic guidance and Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE) metrics to evaluate each simplification step. Using the marine biogeochemical model Eco3M-MED as an example, we specified three objectives for model simplification: (1) fidelity of state variables, (2) fidelity of marine ecosystem indicators, and (3) applicability for coupling with higher trophic level models. For each objective, we assessed model sensitivity to parameters and applied the SAIS approach to simplify the model, and obtained three simplified models. KGE-based fidelity evaluations are used to validate each final simplified model against the reference model. The results show that computational time can be reduced by up to approximately 30% without compromising the model’s mechanistic foundation. Overall, this method offers a flexible and scalable approach for generating simplified versions of complex biogeochemical models, suitable for applications in regional marine ecosystem assessments, climate scenario explorations, and model coupling frameworks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"514 ","pages":"Article 111491"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145978010","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Non-detection by citizen scientists modeled as a function of visit characteristics","authors":"Gert W. Jacobusse ,&nbsp;Eelke Jongejans","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111474","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111474","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Citizen science is an increasingly valuable source of information about biodiversity. It is challenging to use this information for analysis of distribution and trends. The lack of a protocol leads to observation bias due to unequal detection and reporting probabilities, caused by different preferences and habits of citizen scientists. With an immediate focus on occupancy, it is hard to extract value from citizen science data because of such observation bias. We propose to incorporate multiple characteristics of excursions in analyses of data collected by citizen scientists to improve estimates of the probability that a species is not detected and reported, even though it does occur. By limiting these models to areas that are known to be occupied, detection can be modeled separately without considering variation in occupancy. We apply this idea to 150 common species in the Southwest Delta of The Netherlands, and illustrate the data selection, modeling process and results using four species. The strongest features to predict detection are the number of species reported during a visit (list length), earlier observations of the target species by the same observer, and the day of year. We compare three approaches to predict the probability that a species is not detected during any of the visits to an area. Predictions based on only the number of visits were outperformed by predictions that also take the list length into account. Predictions based on all features combined consistently beat both other approaches, across all 10 species groups that were compared. We thus show that explicitly modelling the characteristics of all visits to an occupied area results in estimation of non-detection probabilities, while providing insight into the causes of detection and reporting bias. Like in occupancy models, predictions of our model can be combined per area to update occupancy estimates and thereby correct bias in citizen science data when aiming to map a species’ distribution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"514 ","pages":"Article 111474"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145939874","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A collaborative, cloud-based decision support system for structured wildfire risk mitigation planning","authors":"Hugh Safford ,&nbsp;Colton Miller ,&nbsp;Danielle Perrot ,&nbsp;Sophie Gilbert ,&nbsp;Tyler Hoecker ,&nbsp;Michael Koontz ,&nbsp;Kailey Kornhauser ,&nbsp;Matt Thompson ,&nbsp;Joe Shannon ,&nbsp;Nathan Rutenbeck ,&nbsp;Joe Scott ,&nbsp;Scott Conway ,&nbsp;Katharyn Duffy","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111464","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111464","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Multi-stakeholder planning and prioritization for ecosystem management and wildfire risk mitigation are complicated by the need to balance a multitude of values, goals, viewpoints, and interests across large landscapes. Doing so requires quantifying current conditions, defining management feasibility constraints, modeling complex system responses under different management and disturbance scenarios, quantifying outcomes in terms of social values, weighing and assessing tradeoffs, and identifying optimal strategies. Beginning in the 2010s, structured wildfire risk assessment tools were developed to provide a framework for prioritizing management actions based on wildfire hazard, ecological response, and decision-maker values. Yet, more than a decade later, operationalizing risk assessments remains challenging and limited by disconnected tooling, static data, and workflows that are difficult to scale or adapt for collaborative decision-making. Here, we present the Vibrant Planet Platform (VPP), a modular, cloud-based decision-support system that integrates fire simulation, ecological response functions, multi-objective optimization, and user input into a unified planning environment. The platform enables risk-based scenario planning across landscapes up to millions of hectares by linking validated modeling tools (e.g., FSim, FVS, ForSys) with high-resolution, up-to-date vegetation and infrastructure data. We describe the challenges inherent to operationalizing risk assessments, demonstrate how VPP addresses them through architectural and methodological design, and highlight real-world deployments in U.S. risk-exposed landscapes and communities. We outline a multi-tiered validation framework for assessing model relevance, internal coherence, predictive performance, and field alignment. VPP illustrates how structured decision-making can be operationalized at broad scales, offering a model for ecological planning tools that are rigorous, transparent, and participatory.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"514 ","pages":"Article 111464"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145886248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Structural aspects of evenness and equalness","authors":"Hans-Rolf Gregorius,&nbsp;Elizabeth M. Gillet","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111452","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111452","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In ecology and evolution, measurement of uniformity or non-uniformity of variation aids in understanding adaptation and system stability. Despite the intricacy of problems addressed, a single concept and method of analysis prevails in the assessment of uniformity, namely evenness. Relevant entities of analysis, however, range from individuals, their genetic type or phenotype, pairs of these, to assemblages at various levels of organization. Entities, in turn, may be represented by frequencies/abundances, area occupied, pair differences, or diversity (of assemblages). The evenness concept views inequality in representation in terms of dominance of single entities (unevenness), but it does not cover the omnipresent phenomenon of differentness or heterogeneity as it appears in intermediate representations (unequalness). Here the concepts of evenness and equalness are expanded for application to more kinds of entities and their representations and related to common notions of equability and regularity. Beyond frequency distributions, a coherent approach to variability in similarity or difference of pairs of entities (pair differences) enables inclusion of facets of structure. Commensurability among all notions is then reached by specification of appropriate indicators and indices.</div><div>Although evenness and equalness both address ideas of uniformity, they can lead to divergent and partially unexpected but consistent conclusions in their various applications. These arise especially for dominance and heterogeneity in representation as distinct deviations from ideal uniformity. Among such conclusions are: <span><math><mo>•</mo></math></span> the evaluation of complex functional traits for uniformity characteristics yields partially inconsistent results when based on the evenness concept, while this inconsistency does not arise under the equalness concept; <span><math><mo>•</mo></math></span> equalness indices consistently quantify regularity (branching symmetry) in the topology of phylogenies, while assessment of the uniformity of branch lengths and related metric characteristics of phylogenies is largely independent of topological characteristics; <span><math><mo>•</mo></math></span> for clines considering difference gradients for complex characters, analysis of uniformity at different levels shows that large degrees of uniformity can be realized only when the entity representations are difference increments; <span><math><mo>•</mo></math></span> the evenness variant of (non-)uniformity shows little sensitivity to specifically structural characteristics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"514 ","pages":"Article 111452"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145886251","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating rabbitfish restocking potential in support of Guam’s coastal fisheries","authors":"Anne A. Innes-Gold ,&nbsp;Peter Houk ,&nbsp;Tye L. Kindinger ,&nbsp;Brett M. Taylor ,&nbsp;Austin Humphries","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111460","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111460","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Aquaculture-based fisheries enhancement (i.e., restocking) involves releasing hatchery-reared fish into the wild to support depleted populations and sustain fisheries. However, the benefits of these activities can be difficult to detect. We created a theoretical model to evaluate the potential benefits of restocking initiatives for a prominent forktail rabbitfish (<em>Siganus argenteus</em>) fishery in Guam. Forktail rabbitfish have three distinct life stages making them ideal for a discrete stage-structured modeling approach: mañahak (recruits), dagge (juveniles), and hiteng kahlao (adults). We modelled restocking scenarios whereby mañahak were harvested for grow-out and subsequently reintroduced into the population as dagge, thereby reinforcing the life stage transition with the lowest natural survival probability. We found that restocking had variable impacts on the population structure and resilience that were dependent on the intensity of exploitation. Under full exploitation, restocking improved resilience by shifting the most sensitive life-stage transition from mañahak-to-dagge to dagge-to-hiteng kahlao. Only under low-to-intermediate fishing could restocking reverse the population trajectory from a declining trend to a growing one. Restocking 2–10 % of the unfished biomass (B₀) allowed the population to sustain 12–25 % higher yields while still maintaining the 50 % B₀ benchmark. Overall, fishing and natural reproduction were consistently the strongest determinants of population structures, transitions, and trajectories; however, restocking augmented population resilience and improved fisheries yields. This study demonstrates the potential viability of restocking in combination with fishing regulations to enhance fisheries yield in a culturally important fishery.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"514 ","pages":"Article 111460"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145886252","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Process-based modeling and prediction of cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms of long-range dependence on environmental conditions","authors":"Sayed Omar Hofioni ,&nbsp;Zhiqiang Deng ,&nbsp;Sibel Bargu ,&nbsp;Courtney Nicole Hammond","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111466","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111466","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Harmful algal blooms of toxin-producing cyanobacteria (CyanoHABs) increasingly threaten ecosystems, water supplies, and public health. Yet, most CyanoHAB modeling tools ignore the influence of antecedent environmental conditions on CyanoHABs. This paper couples a high-resolution hydrodynamic model of Lake Pontchartrain Estuary with a finite-element-based advection–dispersion–reaction module that embeds time-lagged effects of temperature, salinity, light, and nutrients on CyanoHABs, highlighting the key novelty of this work. Forced by satellite and in-situ observations, the coupled CyanoHAB modeling system reproduced the 2021 basin-wide CyanoHAB bloom including its abrupt collapse following Hurricane Ida, demonstrating the robustness of the coupled CyanoHAB modeling system. It was discovered that favorable antecedent environmental conditions over one to four weeks govern the growth and abundance of CyanoHABs, indicating the long-range dependence of CyanoHABs on antecedent environmental conditions. It was also discovered that extreme mixing events can rapidly suppress the biomass of CyanoHABs. The incorporation of antecedent environmental conditions and the mixing effect into process-based models markedly improves the forecasting skill and offers a robust foundation for early-warning systems as climate change intensifies CyanoHAB episodes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"514 ","pages":"Article 111466"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145886364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Wildfire hazard modelling in the Ahafo Region of Ghana using GIS–based Multi- criteria decision-making analysis","authors":"Mary Antwi ,&nbsp;Camila Sanyarebeka ,&nbsp;Emmanuel Abisah Adu ,&nbsp;Solomon Akubire Afour","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111494","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111494","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Forest fire is a devastating phenomenon that causes huge losses of lives, properties, and ecologies, especially in peri‑urban settlements. This study investigates forest fires to identify, classify, and map hazard areas and aid decision-making during interventions and management in the Ahafo Region of Ghana. The assessment considered five risk sub-models i.e. ignition, detection, response, fuel, and climate factor models in an integrated GIS-MCDA model and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Twelve factor criteria were selected for the wildfire modelling considering their relative importance to wildfire as well as other related characteristics. The final wildfire hazard map was subsequently created by utilizing ArcMap 10.8 weighted sum technique to construct and integrate each of the five sub-models. Results from the analysis revealed that, approximately an area of 2257.36 km² was found to be under high to very high fuel risk, representing 43.5% whereas the high ignition risk areas within the forest cover a total area of 4480.4 km² representing 86.3% of the study area. A large extent of the area covers moderate to very low response zones and constitutes a total area of 4762.7 km² being 91.7% of the study area. The detection risk model suggests that visible areas constitute a total area of 4257.4km² (82%), while obscured areas occupy the remaining 935.7km² (18%). The resultant final wildfire hazard map indicates that the northeastern portion of the study area has a high fire hazard potential and covers an area of approximately 2856.2 km² representing 55% of the total area. The results from the study imply that the forest ecology of the Ahafo region is under high threats of wildfire. The study recommends that the National Disaster Management Organization and Ghana National Fire Service should employ wildfire hazard maps to aid fire management and decision-making on interventions for optimal fire control.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"514 ","pages":"Article 111494"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146078628","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}