Ecological Modelling最新文献

{"title":"Through the macroscope: Applying HT Odum's models to novel ecosystems","authors":"Kelly Chinners Reiss","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111325","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111325","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the onset of anthropogenic biomes and the increasing concentration of human populations in urban centers, society has become accustomed to novel ecosystems developing throughout the landscape, though perhaps without recognizing or naming these systems. From an applied perspective, with increasing focus on climate resiliency and adaptation as we approach, or perhaps have surpassed, the 1.5°C temperature threshold to avoid the most severe impacts from climate change, society may wonder what role novel ecosystems play in a changing future. Novel ecosystems are characterized by self-organization and strong human influence prior to or during establishment, with the biological communities comprised of new combinations of species and new pathways, such as energy flows and feedbacks, that capture available resources and maximize power. The idea of novel ecosystems is not entirely new, with the term being coined decades ago in scholarly literature, and the concept appearing in the works of HT Odum decades prior. This study uses Odum’s macroscope to review novel ecosystems in urban green spaces, former agricultural or mining lands, and areas with invasive species within the constructs of HT Odum’s general systems framework. Consideration is given to novel ecosystems in environmental ethics, the position of humans as part of nature, and the implications in environmental policy and management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111325"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144921603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A state-space model to quantify density dependence, demographic heterogeneity, and spatial synchrony in Grande Ronde Basin Chinook salmon populations","authors":"Benjamin A. Staton ,&nbsp;Polly P. Gibson ,&nbsp;Martin Liermann ,&nbsp;Casey Justice ,&nbsp;Matthew J. Kaylor ,&nbsp;Rishi Sharma ,&nbsp;Seth M. White","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111289","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111289","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Pacific salmon face different mortality sources throughout life, requiring monitoring and modeling at various life stages to understand the relative influences of regulating processes. For example, density dependence may be important for freshwater juveniles, whereas ocean conditions may drive later-life outcomes; in addition, delayed effects further complicate these phenomena. State-space models offer a flexible and robust approach to analyze these complexities when faced with uncertain data. We constructed a state-space model for Grande Ronde Basin (NE Oregon, USA) spring Chinook salmon (<em>Oncorhynchus tshawytscha</em>) that tracks the abundance of <span><math><mo>∼</mo></math></span>30 cohorts from 4 populations, modeling variability in freshwater juvenile growth and survival using density-dependent relationships and stochastic process noise that acknowledges synchronous dynamics. Model substructures include rearing origin setting (i.e., natural vs. hatchery), juvenile life history type, and adult age-of-return to account for heterogeneity at these scales. The model was fitted to empirical information collected by a variety of monitoring projects and included an index of freshwater habitat capacity to scale density-dependent processes. We found evidence of early-life density-dependent survival and growth, with subsequent over-wintering and out-migration survival mediated by early-life growth rates. Rearing capacity and growth rates showed positive, though uncertain, relationships with the habitat index. Life stage-specific covariances were overwhelmingly positive, indicating among-population synchronous dynamics throughout life. Post-hoc analyses showed juvenile life history diversity is important for increasing productivity and that increasing habitat availability would reduce density dependence. Model posteriors reflect current understanding of life cycle dynamics for these populations which can parameterize simulations of future population status.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111289"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144920285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Pushing and pulling an algal bloom: Physical controls of diel variability in nearshore phytoplankton biomass","authors":"Medea Zanoli,&nbsp;Gotzon Basterretxea,&nbsp;Idan Tuval","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111290","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111290","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>High-biomass microalgal blooms frequently occur in littoral environments worldwide, often causing noxious effects on aquatic ecosystems and coastal communities. Here, we combine field observations and a simple retention–dispersion model to disentangle the short-term (<span><math><mo>∼</mo></math></span>hours) environmental drivers shaping the nearshore dynamics of such outbreaks. Temperature, salinity, fluorescence, current velocities, and meteorological variables were measured in the nearshore waters of a coastal location in Mallorca (Balearic Islands) during the summer of 2018. Daily averages from field data were used to adjust wind and buoyancy flow variations into a one-dimensional advection–diffusion model in the cross-shore direction. Results reveal that the interplay between wind forcing and cross-shore density gradients drives an alternating retention–dispersion mechanism, effectively explaining the observed diel chlorophyll variability within the nearshore boundary. This simplified model captures the primary dynamics of the bloom, isolating key factors that influence its behavior and offering practical insights for coastal water quality monitoring and management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111290"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144916991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Environmental controls on the development of early life stages of European smelt in the Elbe estuary","authors":"David Drewes ,&nbsp;Corinna Schrum ,&nbsp;Johannes Pein ,&nbsp;Déborah Benkort ,&nbsp;Ute Daewel","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111313","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111313","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The anadromous European smelt (<em>Osmerus eperlanus</em>) is a commonly observed fish in the German estuaries of Elbe, Ems and Weser. Their substantial contribution to local biomass and its ecological role as a “wasp-waist” species, show their importance as a key species in estuarine ecosystems. However, recent studies indicate a rapid decrease in smelt populations across all German estuaries. Potential extrinsic drivers of the decrease include climate change driven temperature increase, shifts in food availability and increasing anthropogenic pressures across the estuarine environment. To investigate possible drivers of mortality of early life stages we present an individual-based model (IBM) for the European smelt, applied in a 1D setup. The model includes development during endogenous life stages, the transition to first feeding and growth-related bioenergetic calculations of 0+ larvae. The sensitivity of the model to changes of intrinsic coefficients and extrinsic drivers was tested using ensemble simulations. Ensembles input data was randomly sampled using a Latin Hypercube Sampling routine (LHS). The model’s ability to reproduce interannual development variability is tested using a combined input dataset including field measurements and bioecological model output. The model allows us to determine important processes that impact the individual survival throughout its lifetime. We present the model validation along with a dedicated parameter sensitivity study on the individual survival. Using field data, the interannual variability of development rates in the model are compared to available monitoring datasets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111313"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144908551","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Revisiting the dynamic simulation model of land-use changes in the Sudano-sahelian countries of Africa (SALU): An open-access application to Senegal","authors":"Anem Dupré,&nbsp;Paul-Alain Raynal,&nbsp;Isabelle Gounand,&nbsp;Caroline Pierre","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111310","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111310","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the Sahel, the sustainability of human land-use is threatened by climate change and demographic pressure. Research is urgently needed to provide governments with relevant leads to prevent land degradation and ensure the population access to resources such as food and fuelwood. Little observation data is available, and canonical land-use models have difficulty representing Sahelian dynamics. One of the few models developed to fit characteristics of the region is the dynamic simulation model of land-use changes in the Sudano-Sahelian countries of Africa (SALU) developed by Stephenne and Lambin (2001). This study aims at adapting this model to the current state of the art, providing explicit calculation steps, to reconstruct past land-use dynamics in Senegal from 1961 to 2020. An extensive bibliographic search was used to obtain parameter value ranges and the model’s sensitivity to parameter uncertainties was assessed through <span><math><mi>δ</mi></math></span>-indices calculation. Applying the model at national scale predicted trends coherent with available literature, with agricultural expansion leading to deforestation, and a switch to intensification in the mid-1990s affecting both livestock forage consumption and fallowing time. Calculating land-demands in the Groundnut basin, a subregion of Senegal, showed the limits of the model when downscaling, with current hypotheses insufficient to reconstruct land-uses in the region when faced with demands too high to be satisfied by the local production. This work opens perspectives to refine land-use modeling in the Sahel, including prospective scenarios.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111310"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144902797","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prescribed fire management impacts on forest succession trajectories in future southern Appalachian forests","authors":"Kate Jones ,&nbsp;Jelena Vukomanovic ,&nbsp;Zachary J. Robbins ,&nbsp;Robert M. Scheller","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111323","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111323","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Prescribed fire use has increased throughout the Southeastern U.S. and Southern Appalachian Mountains as an effective tool for landscape-scale fuels reduction and ecosystem restoration, yet may become more difficult in extreme weather conditions. The objective of this study is to assess long-term (100 year) forest response to divergent scenarios of climate and prescribed burning initiatives. We modeled 48, 6.25 ha sites distributed throughout western North Carolina that were selected by combining historical geospatial prescribed fire data and input from regional fire managers. For eight functional groups of tree species, we simulated 21 scenarios combining seven different prescribed fire intervals and three climate scenarios. We found that climate, burn interval, and initial forest community composition affect total biomass and functional group composition, with the least biomass occurring under hotter drier conditions and the greatest number of fires. Changes in functional group composition were most influenced by the initial forest community, then number of fires, then climate. Forest demographics were also sensitive to prescribed fire; young cohorts (&lt;30 years) increased only when sites were burned every 10 years or more frequently, while intermediate age cohorts (30–60 years) increased only when burned every 5 years, regardless of climate and initial forest community. Our simulations and scenario design help to discern the effect of varying climatic and weather conditions, fire management, and existing forest composition on future forests. This work can be used to support fire and natural resource management planning by exploring a range of uncertainty associated with different fire and climate conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111323"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144908550","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Driving wildfire spread prediction by multi-source real-time observations","authors":"Chuanying Lin ,&nbsp;Yihong Shi ,&nbsp;Zheng Wang ,&nbsp;Mengxia Zha ,&nbsp;Xingdong Li ,&nbsp;Jie Ji","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111315","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111315","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Wildfire spread prediction based on data assimilation (DA) enhances forecast accuracy through observational data integration, which essentially achieves optimal parameter estimation by minimizing discrepancies between observed and predicted fireline positions. However, DA performance shows strong sensitivity to fireline observation errors. To enhance DA effectiveness in the presence of inevitable observational errors, this study establishes a novel DA framework driven by multi-source observational data:(1) Based on the assumption that the observational errors in the x-y coordinate system follow a normal distribution, a method for estimating the confidence interval of the fire line vertex position was established; (2) A multi-source data fusion method is established, and an uncertainty quantification method for fused fireline positions is developed using probability theory; (3) The weighted root mean square error (RMSE) is implemented as the fitness function in parameter estimation, through which the Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm is guided by vertex-specific weights derived from uncertainty analysis for optimal parameter identification. The methodology is validated through both large-scale controlled experiments (spanning 10,000 m<span><math><msup><mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msup></math></span> with coordinated UAV and watchtower monitoring) and simulation studies. Results demonstrate significant improved prediction accuracy compared to single-source DA approaches.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111315"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144902798","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A spatiotemporal SEIR model for predicting wheat stripe and leaf rusts epidemics","authors":"Mustapha El Jarroudi ,&nbsp;Hasan Karjoun ,&nbsp;Riane Hajjami ,&nbsp;Louis Kouadio ,&nbsp;Moussa El Jarroudi","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111318","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111318","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the dynamics and severity of foliar fungal diseases in space and time is crucial to ensure effective epidemic control. Here, we presented a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) modeling approach integrating a nonlocal dispersion model of wind-borne pathogens and meteorological factors to describe the dynamics of wheat stripe rust (WSR) and wheat leaf rust (WLR). Variations of wheat plant populations from one compartment to another were modeled with weather dependent probabilities based on defined assumptions for the host population and wind velocity. The well-posedness of the formulated model was established and the final size of the epidemic was theoretically determined. Data for the 2018/2019 wheat cropping season from four representative wheat-growing regions in Luxembourg were used to fit the SEIR model for each disease and evaluate its capability to simulate disease progress and severity. Numerical simulations were carried out to visually assess the spatiotemporal patterns of the <span><math><mi>S</mi></math></span>, <span><math><mi>E</mi></math></span>, <span><math><mi>I</mi></math></span>, and <span><math><mi>R</mi></math></span> compartments over a two-dimensions computational domain during the period of May to July 2019, which corresponds to the critical period of WSR and WLR development at the study sites. The SEIR model was fitted using unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) imagery data for both WSR and WLR, and overall, the results showed a good fit between the simulated disease severity and the UAV-derived estimates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111318"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144902796","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatiotemporal dynamics and driving factors of net primary productivity in Asian terrestrial ecosystems","authors":"Meng Li ,&nbsp;Liang Liang ,&nbsp;Ziru Huang ,&nbsp;Huaxiang Song ,&nbsp;Shuguo Wang ,&nbsp;Qianjie Wang ,&nbsp;Yang Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111322","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111322","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Net Primary Productivity (NPP) serves as a critical indicator for assessing terrestrial ecosystem quality and characterizing carbon sequestration capacity. Utilizing a long-term NPP remote sensing inversion dataset, this study systematically uncovers the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of vegetation NPP in Asia through historical trend analysis, identification of mutation nodes, ecological stability assessment, multi-scale periodic feature analysis, and sustainability forecasting. The combined driving effects of topographical constraints, climate variability, and human activities are quantitatively examined using structural equation modeling (SEM), elucidating the multifactorial synergistic impact on vegetation productivity. The main findings are: (1) Temporally, Asian vegetation NPP exhibits a fluctuating upward trend with a principal cycle of approximately 20 years, marked by two distinct rise-decline transitions during the study period. (2) Spatially, a clear southeast-high/northwest-low differentiation pattern is observed, with significant NPP increases in East Asian monsoon regions and South Asian agricultural zones, contrasted by declines in tropical rainforests (notably in the Malay Archipelago) and eastern Mongolian grasslands. (3) Persistence analysis indicates that 53 % of vegetated areas exhibit random NPP variability, 4 % maintain stable conditions, and only 2 % (mainly in South and East Asian croplands) show sustained growth potential. A trend reversal from negative to positive is noted in 27 % of the regions (e.g., Malay Archipelago and eastern Mongolia), while 12 % of cropland-dominant areas may face growth stagnation or decline. (4) Driver quantification demonstrates climate factors exert the strongest explanatory power (total effect: 0.38), while topography generates complex influences through direct negative (-0.14) and indirect positive (0.04) effects. Human activities (total effect: 0.06) are primarily driven by synergistic GDP-population growth. These findings provide a scientific foundation for evaluating Asian ecosystem services and guiding regional carbon cycle management under global change scenarios.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111322"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144895825","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Decomposition of Whittaker’s gamma diversity: a novel way combining entropies and divergences","authors":"Ivano Vascotto ,&nbsp;Davide Agnetta","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111317","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111317","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate, standardized, and comparable methods for estimating biodiversity are crucial in ecology to properly assess and monitor the health of communities. Special cases of generalized entropy are commonly used to estimate alpha diversity. The related concept of generalized divergence can be used to estimate the beta diversity. Using cross entropy notion, we propose a modular decomposition of gamma diversity by using entropy and divergence functions. We prove that if alpha is Shannon entropy and beta is Kullback-Liebler divergence, the classical Whittaker’s gamma diversity is mathematically decomposed via our proposed <em>local gamma</em> index. To show the ecological application of this index and its generalization we compute the local gamma of several orders using a real large biological dataset. The index is discussed in detail for two limit cases, one where the contribution of rare species is the highest and one where richness and evenness are balanced. The index defines a gradient from communities that are dominated by a few common species toward samples shared among several uncommon ones. Our findings support divergence-based measures as practical estimators of beta diversity. Also, the framework here proposed, based on entropy, divergences and cross-entropies, allows us to compute the classic gamma diversity while providing components that are independent, comparable, self-reliant and pointwise distributed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111317"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144893572","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}