Exploring the evolution of socio-ecological systems through agent-based modeling in Resuloğlu Höyük (North-Central Anatolia) during the early bronze age (4300–4100 BP)

This research seeks to model and better comprehend how archaeological communities and their environments co-evolved throughout the Late Holocene, under changing climatic conditions, and the dynamic processes of topography in semi-arid badlands. Our research, based on archaeological and paleoenvironmental data, is centered on Resuloğlu Höyük (Mound), a settlement from the Early Bronze Age (ca. 4300–4100 BP) located at the confluence of the Delice and the Kızılırmak rivers in north-central Anatolia. Excavated systematically from 2003 through 2019, Resuloğlu presents a large dataset that allows high-resolution modeling of socio-ecological dynamics in the long term in this challenging environment.

Mediterranean Landscape Dynamics (MedLanD) model—a hybrid modeling system capable of quantifying complex feedback relations among human activity and natural processes—has been applied to simulate three different land-use strategies (i.e., agricultural, agropastoral, and pastoral) and three different climate conditions (e.g., normal,15% dry, and 15% wet). The model simulated the dynamic interactions between 4300 and 4100 cal. BP in nine distinct scenarios. The results show that groups that adopted an agriculturally concentrated strategy demonstrated comparatively higher resilience than agropastoral and pastoral strategies.

The environmental impact of each subsistence strategy under varying climatic conditions was also examined. Results indicate that pastoral lifeways were the most environmentally intensive under 15% wetter conditions. In contrast, mixed and pastoral strategies resulted in reduced environmental deterioration under 15% wetter climate. Owing to the badland nature of this research, precipitation was identified as the most influential driver of surface processes and the broader evolution of the landscape.