Simulation and analysis of dengue transmission dynamics using advanced fuzzy arithmetic

Dengue fever remains a major public health concern in Malaysia due to the widespread presence of Aedes mosquitoes. Therefore, modeling its transmission is essential. This study aims to enhance the traditional SIR-SI model by developing two new versions called SEIHRD-SEI and SAVEIHRD-SEIW models to accurately represent Dengue transmission using advanced fuzzy arithmetical modeling based on the transformation method. These enhanced models incorporate intervention strategies such as awareness reminders, vaccination, and vector control. The state-space models of SEIHRD-SEI and SAVEIHRD-SEIW are simulated in Simulink, and their systems of differential equations are analytically solved using the matrix exponential integrating factor method to obtain output equations that preserve essential dynamics. The simulations are then executed using FAMOUS software for advanced fuzzy arithmetical analysis. The result shows that awareness reminders are more influential than vaccination in the human population. Furthermore, hospitalized recovery has a greater influence on disease dynamics than natural recovery. In the mosquito population, insecticide usage is more influential than Wolbachia prevalence. Overall, the study successfully identifies the most influential parameters.