Sherif Eneye Shuaib , Ghislain Rutayisire , Qing Han , Amy Veprauskas , Jude Dzevela Kong
{"title":"一个机械阶段结构模型,用于估计加拿大水域三种经济上重要的鱼类的成熟,死亡率和招募参数","authors":"Sherif Eneye Shuaib , Ghislain Rutayisire , Qing Han , Amy Veprauskas , Jude Dzevela Kong","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111331","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study designs and analyzes a discrete-time, stage-structured model to estimate key life-history parameters (recruitment, maturation, and mortality) for three economically significant fish species in Canadian waters: Chinook Salmon (<em>Oncorhynchus tshawytscha</em>), Capelin (<em>Mallotus villosus</em>), and Cod (<em>Gadus morhua</em>). The analysis encompasses model wellposedness, the net reproductive number (<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>), and the global stability of equilibria. Sensitivity analysis using Partial Rank Correlation Coefficients (PRCC) was performed to assess the influence of key parameters on <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub></math></span> and long-term fish population abundance. Our findings reveal that recruitment and adult survival are the primary drivers of long-term population sustainability across all three species. While maturation transitions contribute positively to population growth, their influence is secondary compared to recruitment and survival. These results highlight the importance of effective management strategies that prioritize improving recruitment and adult survival while also supporting successful transitions between life stages to maintain stable fish populations and ensure the ecological and economic sustainability of fisheries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"510 ","pages":"Article 111331"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A mechanistic stage-structured model for estimating maturation, mortality, and recruitment parameters of three economically significant fish species in Canadian waters\",\"authors\":\"Sherif Eneye Shuaib , Ghislain Rutayisire , Qing Han , Amy Veprauskas , Jude Dzevela Kong\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111331\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>This study designs and analyzes a discrete-time, stage-structured model to estimate key life-history parameters (recruitment, maturation, and mortality) for three economically significant fish species in Canadian waters: Chinook Salmon (<em>Oncorhynchus tshawytscha</em>), Capelin (<em>Mallotus villosus</em>), and Cod (<em>Gadus morhua</em>). The analysis encompasses model wellposedness, the net reproductive number (<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>), and the global stability of equilibria. Sensitivity analysis using Partial Rank Correlation Coefficients (PRCC) was performed to assess the influence of key parameters on <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub></math></span> and long-term fish population abundance. Our findings reveal that recruitment and adult survival are the primary drivers of long-term population sustainability across all three species. While maturation transitions contribute positively to population growth, their influence is secondary compared to recruitment and survival. These results highlight the importance of effective management strategies that prioritize improving recruitment and adult survival while also supporting successful transitions between life stages to maintain stable fish populations and ensure the ecological and economic sustainability of fisheries.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":51043,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Ecological Modelling\",\"volume\":\"510 \",\"pages\":\"Article 111331\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-09-12\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Ecological Modelling\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380025003175\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ECOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Ecological Modelling","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380025003175","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
A mechanistic stage-structured model for estimating maturation, mortality, and recruitment parameters of three economically significant fish species in Canadian waters
This study designs and analyzes a discrete-time, stage-structured model to estimate key life-history parameters (recruitment, maturation, and mortality) for three economically significant fish species in Canadian waters: Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), Capelin (Mallotus villosus), and Cod (Gadus morhua). The analysis encompasses model wellposedness, the net reproductive number (), and the global stability of equilibria. Sensitivity analysis using Partial Rank Correlation Coefficients (PRCC) was performed to assess the influence of key parameters on and long-term fish population abundance. Our findings reveal that recruitment and adult survival are the primary drivers of long-term population sustainability across all three species. While maturation transitions contribute positively to population growth, their influence is secondary compared to recruitment and survival. These results highlight the importance of effective management strategies that prioritize improving recruitment and adult survival while also supporting successful transitions between life stages to maintain stable fish populations and ensure the ecological and economic sustainability of fisheries.
期刊介绍:
The journal is concerned with the use of mathematical models and systems analysis for the description of ecological processes and for the sustainable management of resources. Human activity and well-being are dependent on and integrated with the functioning of ecosystems and the services they provide. We aim to understand these basic ecosystem functions using mathematical and conceptual modelling, systems analysis, thermodynamics, computer simulations, and ecological theory. This leads to a preference for process-based models embedded in theory with explicit causative agents as opposed to strictly statistical or correlative descriptions. These modelling methods can be applied to a wide spectrum of issues ranging from basic ecology to human ecology to socio-ecological systems. The journal welcomes research articles, short communications, review articles, letters to the editor, book reviews, and other communications. The journal also supports the activities of the [International Society of Ecological Modelling (ISEM)](http://www.isemna.org/).