Diversity and Distributions最新文献

{"title":"Biogeographic patterns of Pacific white-sided dolphins based on long-term passive acoustic records","authors":"Michaela N. Alksne,&nbsp;Annebelle C. M. Kok,&nbsp;Anika Agarwal,&nbsp;Kaitlin E. Frasier,&nbsp;Simone Baumann-Pickering","doi":"10.1111/ddi.13903","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ddi.13903","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study investigates the biogeographic patterns of Pacific white-sided dolphins (<i>Lagenorhynchus obliquidens</i>) in the Eastern North Pacific based on long-term passive acoustic records. We aim to elucidate the ecological and behavioural significance of distinct echolocation click types and their implications for population delineation, geographic distribution, environmental adaptation and management.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Eastern North Pacific Ocean.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Time Period</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>2005–2021.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Major Taxa Studied</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Pacific white-sided dolphin.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Over 50 cumulative years of passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) data from 14 locations were analyzed using a deep neural network to classify two distinct Pacific white-sided dolphin echolocation click types. The study assessed spatial, diel, seasonal and interannual patterns of the two click types, correlating them with major environmental drivers such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, and modeling long-term spatial-seasonal patterns.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Distinct spatial, diel and seasonal patterns were observed for each click type. Significant biogeographical shifts in presence were observed following the 2014–2016 marine heatwave event.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Distinct spatial distributions of the two click types support the hypothesis that Pacific white-sided dolphins produce population-specific echolocation clicks. Seasonal and diel patterns suggest spatiotemporal niche partitioning between the populations in Southern California. Interannual changes, notably initiated during the 2014–2016 marine heatwave, indicate climate-driven range expansions and contractions related to gradual tropicalization of the Southern California Bight.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":51018,"journal":{"name":"Diversity and Distributions","volume":"30 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ddi.13903","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141576907","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate disturbances during critical periods pose risks to European hamster conservation efforts","authors":"Rafał Łopucki,&nbsp;Janusz Wójciak,&nbsp;Daniel Klich","doi":"10.1111/ddi.13899","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ddi.13899","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Long-term population studies provide invaluable insights into natural variability, particularly in ecology and conservation. We reconstruct the 31-year dynamics of the European hamster population in a vast area within Central Europe. We identify key meteorological factors influencing population dynamics and project the potential impact of climate change on their conservation.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Poland.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>As an indicator of hamster population changes, we utilized data on the prey of the Lesser Spotted Eagle (<i>Clanga pomarina</i>) collected over 31 years (1993–2023) in the geographical region where the European hamster coexists. The reliability of ornithological data was validated.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Meteorological factors play a critical role in driving hamster population changes. We found a strong correlation between population growth and warm weather patterns in October and November, as well as favourable conditions in March of the following year. These weather patterns allow hamsters to store larger food supplies and enter hibernation in better physiological condition, resulting in improved habitat and nutritional conditions upon emergence from hibernation in spring.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Our findings underscore the importance of considering meteorological factors in conservation risk assessments, especially when planning and evaluating hamster reintroduction programmes. The significant influence of meteorological conditions raises concerns about the future prospects of this species in the context of ongoing climate change. Disturbances during critical hamster periods, including unseasonal and prolonged temperature drops in spring following relatively warm winters, pose substantial risks to conservation efforts.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":51018,"journal":{"name":"Diversity and Distributions","volume":"30 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ddi.13899","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141553005","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ensemble modelling to predict the distribution of vulnerable marine ecosystems indicator taxa on data-limited seamounts of Cabo Verde (NW Africa)","authors":"Beatriz Vinha,&nbsp;Francisco Javier Murillo,&nbsp;Mia Schumacher,&nbsp;Thor H. Hansteen,&nbsp;Franziska U. Schwarzkopf,&nbsp;Arne Biastoch,&nbsp;Ellen Kenchington,&nbsp;Stefano Piraino,&nbsp;Covadonga Orejas,&nbsp;Veerle A. I. Huvenne","doi":"10.1111/ddi.13896","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ddi.13896","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Seamounts are conspicuous geological features with an important ecological role and can be considered vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs). Since many deep-sea regions remain largely unexplored, investigating the occurrence of VME taxa on seamounts is challenging. Our study aimed to predict the distribution of four cold-water coral (CWC) taxa, indicators for VMEs, in a region where occurrence data are scarce.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Seamounts around the Cabo Verde archipelago (NW Africa).</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We used species presence–absence data obtained from remotely operated vehicle (ROV) footage collected during two research expeditions. Terrain variables calculated using a multiscale approach from a 100-m-resolution bathymetry grid, as well as physical oceanographical data from the VIKING20X model, at a native resolution of 1/20°, were used as environmental predictors. Two modelling techniques (generalized additive model and random forest) were employed and single-model predictions were combined into a final weighted-average ensemble model. Model performance was validated using different metrics through cross-validation.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Terrain orientation, at broad scale, presented one of the highest relative variable contributions to the distribution models of all CWC taxa, suggesting that hydrodynamic–topographic interactions on the seamounts could benefit CWCs by maximizing food supply. However, changes at finer scales in terrain morphology and bottom salinity were important for driving differences in the distribution of specific CWCs. The ensemble model predicted the presence of VME taxa on all seamounts and consistently achieved the highest performance metrics, outperforming individual models. Nonetheless, model extrapolation and uncertainty, measured as the coefficient of variation, were high, particularly, in least surveyed areas across seamounts, highlighting the need to collect more data in future surveys.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Our study shows how data-poor areas may be assessed for the likelihood of VMEs and provides important information to guide future research in Cabo Verde, which is fundamental to advise ongoing conservation planning.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":51018,"journal":{"name":"Diversity and Distributions","volume":"30 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2024-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ddi.13896","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141500918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate, food and humans predict communities of mammals in the United States","authors":"Roland Kays,&nbsp;Matthew H. Snider,&nbsp;George Hess,&nbsp;Michael V. Cove,&nbsp;Alex Jensen,&nbsp;Hila Shamon,&nbsp;William J. McShea,&nbsp;Brigit Rooney,&nbsp;Maximilian L. Allen,&nbsp;Charles E. Pekins,&nbsp;Christopher C. Wilmers,&nbsp;Mary E. Pendergast,&nbsp;Austin M. Green,&nbsp;Justin Suraci,&nbsp;Matthew S. Leslie,&nbsp;Sophie Nasrallah,&nbsp;Dan Farkas,&nbsp;Mark Jordan,&nbsp;Melissa Grigione,&nbsp;Michael C. LaScaleia,&nbsp;Miranda L. Davis,&nbsp;Chris Hansen,&nbsp;Josh Millspaugh,&nbsp;Jesse S. Lewis,&nbsp;Michael Havrda,&nbsp;Robert Long,&nbsp;Kathryn R. Remine,&nbsp;Kodi J. Jaspers,&nbsp;Diana J. R. Lafferty,&nbsp;Tru Hubbard,&nbsp;Colin E. Studds,&nbsp;Erika L. Barthelmess,&nbsp;Katherine Andy,&nbsp;Andrea Romero,&nbsp;Brian J. O'Neill,&nbsp;Melissa T. R. Hawkins,&nbsp;Jason V. Lombardi,&nbsp;Maksim Sergeyev,&nbsp;M. Caitlin Fisher-Reid,&nbsp;Michael S. Rentz,&nbsp;Christopher Nagy,&nbsp;Jon M. Davenport,&nbsp;Christine C. Rega-Brodsky,&nbsp;Cara L. Appel,&nbsp;Damon B. Lesmeister,&nbsp;Sean T. Giery,&nbsp;Christopher A. Whittier,&nbsp;Jesse M. Alston,&nbsp;Chris Sutherland,&nbsp;Christopher Rota,&nbsp;Thomas Murphy,&nbsp;Thomas E. Lee Jr.,&nbsp;Alessio Mortelliti,&nbsp;Dylan L. Bergman,&nbsp;Justin A. Compton,&nbsp;Brian D. Gerber,&nbsp;Jess Burr,&nbsp;Kylie Rezendes,&nbsp;Brett A. DeGregorio,&nbsp;Nathaniel H. Wehr,&nbsp;John F. Benson,&nbsp;M. Teague O'Mara,&nbsp;David S. Jachowski,&nbsp;Morgan Gray,&nbsp;Dean E. Beyer Jr.,&nbsp;Jerrold L. Belant,&nbsp;Robert V. Horan III,&nbsp;Robert C. Lonsinger,&nbsp;Kellie M. Kuhn,&nbsp;Steven C. M. Hasstedt,&nbsp;Marketa Zimova,&nbsp;Sophie M. Moore,&nbsp;Daniel J. Herrera,&nbsp;Sarah Fritts,&nbsp;Andrew J. Edelman,&nbsp;Elizabeth A. Flaherty,&nbsp;Tyler R. Petroelje,&nbsp;Sean A. Neiswenter,&nbsp;Derek R. Risch,&nbsp;Fabiola Iannarilli,&nbsp;Marius van der Merwe,&nbsp;Sean P. Maher,&nbsp;Zach J. Farris,&nbsp;Stephen L. Webb,&nbsp;David S. Mason,&nbsp;Marcus A. Lashley,&nbsp;Andrew M. Wilson,&nbsp;John P. Vanek,&nbsp;Samuel R. Wehr,&nbsp;L. Mike Conner,&nbsp;James C. Beasley,&nbsp;Helen L. Bontrager,&nbsp;Carolina Baruzzi,&nbsp;Susan N. Ellis-Felege,&nbsp;Mike D. Proctor,&nbsp;Jan Schipper,&nbsp;Katherine C. B. Weiss,&nbsp;Andrea K. Darracq,&nbsp;Evan G. Barr,&nbsp;Peter D. Alexander,&nbsp;Çağan H. Şekercioğlu,&nbsp;Daniel A. Bogan,&nbsp;Christopher M. Schalk,&nbsp;Jean E. Fantle-Lepczyk,&nbsp;Christopher A. Lepczyk,&nbsp;Scott LaPoint,&nbsp;Laura S. Whipple,&nbsp;Helen Ivy Rowe,&nbsp;Kayleigh Mullen,&nbsp;Tori Bird,&nbsp;Adam Zorn,&nbsp;LaRoy Brandt,&nbsp;Richard G. Lathrop,&nbsp;Craig McCain,&nbsp;Anthony P. Crupi,&nbsp;James Clark,&nbsp;Arielle Parsons","doi":"10.1111/ddi.13900","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ddi.13900","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Aim&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;The assembly of species into communities and ecoregions is the result of interacting factors that affect plant and animal distribution and abundance at biogeographic scales. Here, we empirically derive ecoregions for mammals to test whether human disturbance has become more important than climate and habitat resources in structuring communities.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Location&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Conterminous United States.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Time Period&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;2010–2021.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Major Taxa Studied&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Twenty-five species of mammals.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Methods&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;We analysed data from 25 mammal species recorded by camera traps at 6645 locations across the conterminous United States in a joint modelling framework to estimate relative abundance of each species. We then used a clustering analysis to describe 8 broad and 16 narrow mammal communities.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Results&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Climate was the most important predictor of mammal abundance overall, while human population density and agriculture were less important, with mixed effects across species. Seed production by forests also predicted mammal abundance, especially hard-mast tree species. The mammal community maps are similar to those of plants, with an east–west split driven by different dominant species of deer and squirrels. Communities vary along gradients of temperature in the east and precipitation in the west. Most fine-scale mammal community boundaries aligned with established plant ecoregions and were distinguished by the presence of regional specialists or shifts in relative abundance of widespread species. Maps of potential ecosystem services provided by these communities suggest high herbivory in the Rocky Mountains and eastern forests, high invertebrate predation in the subtropical south and greater predation pressure on large vertebrates in the west.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Main Conclusions&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Our results highlight the importance of climate to modern mammals and suggest that climate change will have strong impacts on these communities. Our new empirical approach to recognizing ecoregions has potential to be applied to expanded communities of mammals or other taxa.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 ","PeriodicalId":51018,"journal":{"name":"Diversity and Distributions","volume":"30 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2024-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ddi.13900","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141513632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Uncertainty in consensus predictions of plant species' vulnerability to climate change","authors":"Miranda Brooke Rose,&nbsp;Santiago José Elías Velazco,&nbsp;Helen M. Regan,&nbsp;Alan L. Flint,&nbsp;Lorraine E. Flint,&nbsp;James H. Thorne,&nbsp;Janet Franklin","doi":"10.1111/ddi.13898","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ddi.13898","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Aim&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Variation in spatial predictions of species' ranges made by various models has been recognized as a significant source of uncertainty for modelling species distributions. Consensus approaches that combine the results of multiple models have been employed to reduce the uncertainty introduced by different algorithms. We evaluate how estimates of habitat suitability, projected using species distribution models (SDMs), varied among different consensus methods relative to the variation introduced by different global climate models (GCMs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) used for projection.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Location&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;California Floristic Province (California, US portion).&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Methods&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;We modelled the current and future potential distributions of 82 terrestrial plant species, developing model predictions under different combinations of GCMs, RCPs, time periods, dispersal assumptions and SDM consensus methods commonly used to combine different species distribution modelling algorithms. We assessed how each of these factors contributed to the variability in future predictions of species habitat suitability change and aggregate measures of proportional change in species richness. We also related variability in species-level habitat change to species' attributes.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Results&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Assuming full dispersal capacity, the variability between habitat predictions made by different consensus methods was higher than the variability introduced by different RCPs and GCMs. The relationships between species' attributes and variability in future habitat predictions depended on the source of uncertainty and dispersal assumptions. However, species with small ranges or low prevalence tended to be associated with high variability in range change forecasts.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Main Conclusions&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Our results support exploring multiple consensus approaches when considering changes in habitat suitability outside of species' current distributions, especially when projecting species with low prevalence and small range sizes, as these species tend to be of the greatest conservation concern yet produce highly variable model outputs. Differences in vulnerability between diverging greenhouse gas concentration scenarios are most readily observed for end-of-century time periods and within species' currently occupied habitats (no dispersal).&lt;/p","PeriodicalId":51018,"journal":{"name":"Diversity and Distributions","volume":"30 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2024-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ddi.13898","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141500919","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cover page","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/ddi.13737","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13737","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The cover image relates to the Research Article https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13858 “Dispersal restriction and facilitation in species with differing tolerance to development: A landscape genetics study of native and introduced lizards” by Phillips et al. The striped anole, Anolis lineatus, sits on a fence in an urban residential area in Curaçao. Photo credit: Matthew R. Helmus.\u0000\u0000 <figure>\u0000 <div><picture>\u0000 <source></source></picture><p></p>\u0000 </div>\u0000 </figure>\u0000 </p>","PeriodicalId":51018,"journal":{"name":"Diversity and Distributions","volume":"30 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2024-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ddi.13737","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141439673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Managing multiple uncertainties in species distribution modelling","authors":"Keren Gila Raiter,&nbsp;Dror Hawlena","doi":"10.1111/ddi.13857","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13857","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We present a methodology to address multifaceted uncertainties in species distribution models (SDMs), enhancing their robustness and providing vital insights to inform management and conservation decisions. Data uncertainties, including positional inaccuracies in historical data and absences in survey data that could be attributed to anthropogenic disturbances rather than habitat unsuitability, can compromise SDM predictions, risking the efficacy of resultant conservation strategies.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>While the concepts and methodologies presented hold global applicability, our case study is situated in and around the Negev Desert of southern Israel and the Palestinian West Bank, focusing on the critically endangered Be'er Sheva fringe-fingered lizard (<i>Acanthodactylus beershebensis</i>) that is endemic to this area.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Utilizing calculated combinations of reliable and uncertain datasets, we created diverse dataset scenarios. Pre-development distribution and habitat requirements were estimated for each scenario using a blend of statistical and machine-learning algorithms in R. Additionally, a combined scenario was modelled using hierarchical model ensembles to effectively weight data by reliability.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Our innovative approach produces more robust models and reveals the impact of uncertain datasets on model predictions. Incorporating potential anthropogenic absences led to erroneous model conclusions, particularly when historical data exclusion occurred—a practice often implemented in the pursuit of model robustness.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Uncertainties in SDMs can yield incorrect conclusions, imperilling conservation efforts. Initiated by land managers, our work actively informs conservation practices. The study's global relevance provides an approach for addressing real-world challenges in estimating species distributions, advancing the application of conservation science.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":51018,"journal":{"name":"Diversity and Distributions","volume":"30 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2024-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ddi.13857","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142013516","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Large-scale deviations between realized and fundamental thermal niches in global seaweed distributions","authors":"Philipp Laeseke,&nbsp;Brezo D.-C. Martínez,&nbsp;Kai Bischof","doi":"10.1111/ddi.13868","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13868","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Aim&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Climate change has profound effects on species' distributions, and it is crucial to understand how well physiological limits correspond to distribution patterns to provide realistic estimations of future range shifts and/or extinctions. Seaweeds are foundation species of global coastal ecosystems, and sea surface temperature is a main predictor to explain their distributions and redistributions under global warming. We here test the hypothesis that, in contrast to other marine ectotherms, physiological knowledge of temperature niches is a weak predictor for seaweed distributions.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Location&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Global.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Time Period&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Present (1984–2019).&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Taxa&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Seaweeds.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Methods&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;We analysed the predictive power of physiological temperature limits to predict real-world distributions in 126 globally distributed seaweed species with linear and generalized linear mixed models.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Results&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;In 72% of the species, there was a difference of ≥|2|°C between the physiological and the realized thermal limits. Both, thermal underfilling (distributional thermal limits narrower than the physiological limits) and overfilling (distributional thermal limits wider than the physiological limits) were present. Thus, in only 28% of the species the physiological limits corresponded to the distributional limits. While heat-tolerance is a significant predictor for upper distributional temperature limits, we found no relationship between cold-tolerance and lower distributional temperature limits and the latter two seem to be independent.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Main Conclusions&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Physiological thermal limits have limited predictive power for seaweed distributions and deviations may be large. Especially cold-tolerances are a weak predictor, and forecasting of migrations under changing global conditions (e.g. towards the poles) will need special attention. This indicates that responses towards climate change might be highly variable between seaweed species and difficult to predict. Further, nearly 60% of the investigated species had populations which are close to or beyond the","PeriodicalId":51018,"journal":{"name":"Diversity and Distributions","volume":"30 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2024-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ddi.13868","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141631128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Seasonal variability of high-latitude foraging grounds for Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus)","authors":"Grace E. McNicholas,&nbsp;Andrew L. Jackson,&nbsp;Stephanie Brodie,&nbsp;Ross O'Neill,&nbsp;Niall Ó'Maoiléidigh,&nbsp;Alan Drumm,&nbsp;Joseph Cooney,&nbsp;Hugo Maxwell,&nbsp;Barbara Block,&nbsp;Mike Castleton,&nbsp;Robert Schallert,&nbsp;Nicholas L. Payne","doi":"10.1111/ddi.13865","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ddi.13865","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Aim&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Predicting spatial and temporal changes in species distributions is difficult for highly mobile species, making effective management challenging. We aim to understand the seasonal variability in habitat suitability for Atlantic bluefin tuna (&lt;i&gt;Thunnus thynnus&lt;/i&gt;; ABFT) by using tracking data to create species distribution models.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Location&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;North-east Atlantic Ocean.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Methods&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Forty-nine ABFT were tagged with pop-up archival satellite tags along the west coast of Ireland during successive autumns from 2016 to 2021. Four thousand two hundred and sixteen daily locations were used to build a habitat model to describe ABFT environmental preferences and habitat suitability. For each location, 100 ‘pseudoabsence’ locations were simulated using correlated random walks.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Results&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Tags had a mean retention rate of 237 ± 107 days, resulting in 11,602 cumulative days at liberty, and a mean daily distance travelled of 51 ± 143 km. ABFT showed two primary migration routes from Ireland, travelling to the Bay of Biscay or across the Mid-Atlantic ridge in the winter. However, in 2019 six individuals travelled northwards towards Iceland, likely in response to a marine heatwave. Eight ABFT entered the Mediterranean in May/June for putative spawning, with six returning to Irish waters a year later. Five environmental covariates best described ABFT habitat, with habitat suitability highest at sea surface temperatures (SST) of 15–18°C, a mixed layer depth between ~200 and 300 m, high relief bathymetric features (i.e. shelf breaks and seamounts) and frontal regions as revealed by non-linear preferences of eddy kinetic energy and SST standard deviation.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Main Conclusions&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;In the last decade, ABFT have been re-establishing historic foraging grounds in higher latitudes, for example, Irish and Nordic waters. Our model shows the extent of suitable habitat in these regions and how recent ocean warming may have contributed to northern expansions. Understanding the drivers behind these reappearances is fundamental to successful future management.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Achoimre&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Aidhm&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Tá ","PeriodicalId":51018,"journal":{"name":"Diversity and Distributions","volume":"30 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2024-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ddi.13865","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141363814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate change is predicted to impact the global distribution and richness of pines (genus Pinus) by 2070","authors":"Diego F. Salazar-Tortosa,&nbsp;Bianca Saladin,&nbsp;Jorge Castro,&nbsp;Rafael Rubio de Casas","doi":"10.1111/ddi.13849","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ddi.13849","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Climate change is altering habitat suitability for many organisms and modifying species ranges at a global scale. Here we explored the impact of climate change on 112 pine species (<i>Pinus</i>), fundamental elements of Northern terrestrial ecosystems.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Global.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We applied a novel methodology for species distribution modelling that considers uncertainty in climatic projections and taxon sampling, and incorporates elements of species' recent evolutionary history. We based our niche calculations on climate and soil data and computed projections across multiple algorithms and IPCC scenarios, which were ensembled into one single suitability map. We then used phylogenetic methods to account for recent evolution in climatic requirements by estimating the evolution of climatic niche. Edaphoclimatic and evolutionary analyses were then combined to calibrate the projections in areas showing high uncertainty. We validated our models using naturalized occurrences of invasive pine species.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Our models predicted that by 2070, most pine species (58%) might face important reductions of habitat suitability, potentially leading to range losses and a decrease in species richness, particularly in some regions such as the Mediterranean Basin and South North America, albeit migration might mitigate these shifts in some cases. In contrast, our projections showed increased habitat suitability for approx. 20% of species, which may undergo range expansions under climate change. Moreover, the consideration of recent evolutionary trends modified projected scenarios, decreasing range loss and increasing range expansion for some species. The independent validation endorsed our models for many species and the influence of recent evolution in some cases.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We predict that climate change will impose drastic changes in pine distribution and diversity across biogeographical regions, but the magnitude and direction of change will vary significantly across regions and taxa. Species-level responses are likely to be influenced by regional conditions and the recent evolutionary history of each taxon.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":51018,"journal":{"name":"Diversity and Distributions","volume":"30 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2024-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ddi.13849","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141385531","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}