Diversity and Distributions最新文献

{"title":"Rapid Declines in Southern Sierra Nevada Fisher Habitat Driven by Drought and Wildfire","authors":"Ronan Hart,&nbsp;Craig M. Thompson,&nbsp;Jody M. Tucker,&nbsp;Sarah C. Sawyer,&nbsp;Stephanie A. Eyes,&nbsp;Saba J. Saberi,&nbsp;Zhiqiang Yang,&nbsp;Gavin M. Jones","doi":"10.1111/ddi.70023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.70023","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Forest disturbances are a natural ecological process, but climate and land-use change are altering disturbance regimes at an unprecedented rate, posing significant threats to biological communities and the species of concern. Our aim was to develop an automated habitat monitoring system for the Southern Sierra Nevada Distinct Population Segment of fisher (<i>Pekania pennanti</i>) in California, USA, to investigate long-term habitat trends and the effects of a recent megadrought and numerous megafires on fisher habitat.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Southern Sierra Nevada, California, USA.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We used detections of female fishers (<i>n</i> = 330) from a standardised monitoring programme to develop a dynamic species distribution model using the random forest algorithm in the Google Earth Engine environment.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We found that female fisher habitat remained relatively stable from 1985 to 2011 but declined by nearly half (48%) between 2012 and 2022, corresponding with a period of widespread forest mortality from drought and wildfire. The majority of fisher habitat loss occurred within wildfire perimeters (65%), where declines in habitat quality were associated with moderate- and high-severity fire. Female fisher habitat was more likely to burn at moderate- and high-severity than was expected by chance.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Our findings emphasise the urgent conservation needs of this distinct population segment of fishers, highlighting the threat posed by novel disturbance regimes. Our results demonstrate the importance of monitoring for understanding species status, as the status of fisher habitat across the entire southern Sierra Nevada range following recent disturbances was not known. More broadly, our implementation of a cloud-based automated habitat monitoring system shows the necessity of up-to-date habitat information to apply conservation measures in rapidly changing environments and the potential for using habitat monitoring systems to investigate ecological questions of basic and applied relevance (e.g., wildfire-habitat relationships).</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":51018,"journal":{"name":"Diversity and Distributions","volume":"31 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ddi.70023","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144074681","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Europe Under Siege? Predicting Fall Armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) Invasion Risk Based on Climatic Niche Shift and Species Distribution Models","authors":"Martina Kadoić Balaško,&nbsp;Filip Varga,&nbsp;Martina Temunović","doi":"10.1111/ddi.70037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.70037","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Invasive species pose a major threat to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Understanding how invasive species change their niche during invasion is fundamental for predicting their potential invasion risk in novel areas and environments. We here study the fall armyworm, FAW (<i>Spodoptera frugiperda</i>), one of the world's most devastating invasive pests due to its severe impact on cereal crops, posing a serious threat to agriculture. We first investigated climatic niche changes and tested for niche conservatism between native and invasive FAW ranges. We then modelled the potential FAW distribution to assess its invasion risk on a global scale, focusing on Europe and its agricultural areas.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Global, with a focus on Europe.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We analysed niche overlap and niche dynamics to quantify climatic niche changes between native and invasive FAW ranges. To predict potential climatically suitable areas for FAW invasion, we used species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated on native, invasive and global (both native and invasive) occurrence datasets.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Our results did not support niche conservatism between native and invasive FAW ranges. We observed a climatic niche shift and expansion in the invasive range towards warmer and drier areas. The highest potential climatic suitability for FAW invasion was identified in parts of Africa, India, China, Australia and in large areas of southwestern, central and southeastern Europe.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Given the observed niche shift and its strong migratory capacity, FAW is likely to further expand its range and establish itself in southern Europe, with potential seasonal migrations to more temperate regions driven by increased temperatures associated with ongoing climate change. Our study confirms that FAW poses a significant threat to global and European biodiversity and agriculture, highlighting the urgent need for coordinated monitoring efforts and the implementation of adaptive management strategies, including sustainable ones, to protect agricultural systems worldwide.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":51018,"journal":{"name":"Diversity and Distributions","volume":"31 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ddi.70037","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144074682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Volunteers Sample Where Endangered Bumble Bees Occur: Model-Based Triage of Preferential Sampling in Multi-Species or Integrated Distribution Models","authors":"John D. J. Clare,&nbsp;Benjamin Zuckerberg,&nbsp;Laura A. Nunes,&nbsp;James Strange,&nbsp;Rich Hatfield,&nbsp;Claudio Gratton","doi":"10.1111/ddi.70034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.70034","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Many broad-scale ecological inventory and monitoring efforts collect multi-species (or otherwise multivariate) data under unstructured study designs. Unstructured designs are vulnerable to preferential sampling, where residual covariance between locations selected for sampling and the response variable of interest may render predictions strongly biased.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Innovation</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We extend previous work to address preferential sampling in spatial single-species distribution models to a multivariate context. Using spatially structured latent variables to approximate residual covariance between species occurrence probabilities and sampling inclusion probabilities, we present ways to account for sampling that may be preferential to varying degrees across multiple species, where (analogously) multiple datastreams might be preferential to varying degrees for a single species, or both. We use simulation to explore our proposed model and present an application that delineates the distributions of 13 bumble bee species across Wisconsin, USA and evaluates evidence for preferential sampling within 3 citizen science datastreams.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Simulation results suggest that our proposed model improves out-of-sample predictions of species occurrence or richness when the sampling design is preferential and residual covariance between sampling and species occurrence exhibits spatial structure compatible with model assumptions, reducing bias in predictions of species occurrence or richness. Empirically, volunteers appeared to sample preferentially with respect to bumble bee distributions, being more likely to sample in locations where the federally listed <i>Bombus affinis</i> was more likely to occur. Our approach enables practitioners a means to triage preferential sampling within increasingly popular multi-species or integrated distribution models and can be modified slightly to deal with a variety of other response variables.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":51018,"journal":{"name":"Diversity and Distributions","volume":"31 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ddi.70034","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143944778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Shifting Gears in a Shifting Climate: Birds Adjust Migration Speed in Response to Spring Vegetation Green-Up","authors":"Bruna R. Amaral,&nbsp;Casey Youngflesh,&nbsp;Morgan Tingley,&nbsp;David A. W. Miller","doi":"10.1111/ddi.70033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.70033","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Investigate whether birds use vegetation green-up, a measure of spring arrival, as a cue to shift their migration speed in response to climate change by examining: (1) how green-up moves in the landscape, (2) how bird migratory speed responds to green-up, (3) how species traits affect migratory speed and (4) how migration speed affects arrival time at breeding sites.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Eastern North America.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Time Period</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>2002 to 2017.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Major Taxa Studied</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Fifty-five species of eastern North American Passerines.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We calculated speed at the migration front using arrival dates derived from 16 years of eBird data with a linear regression. Similarly, we calculated the advancement speed of forest vegetation green-up using satellite data. Green-up effects on bird speed were tested using generalised additive models.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>On average, songbirds migrate northward during spring at a mean speed of 63 km/day. We observed strong non-linear effects of latitude, with bird migration speed accelerated and green-up speed slowed as the distance from the equator increased. Annual and spatial variation in bird migration speed depended on the local green-up date and how quickly green-up was advancing northward: years with earlier and faster green-up were associated with higher migration speeds. Bird arrival relative to green-up was strongly influenced by two variables: how early green-up was and how fast birds were migrating.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The variation of bird migration speed with green-up suggests birds can shift migration speed to ‘catch up’ with earlier springs. However, the stronger effect of green-up date compared to migration speed suggests that birds do not fully compensate for arrival time by simply migrating more quickly. Climate change will likely outpace birds' ability to speed up their migration and adapt to new phenological regimes.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":51018,"journal":{"name":"Diversity and Distributions","volume":"31 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ddi.70033","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143944777","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fire Effects on Bird Communities From Seasonally Flooded Forests Along Amazonian Black Water Rivers of the Negro River Basin","authors":"C. Valentim,&nbsp;J. M. G. Capurucho,&nbsp;P. E. D. Bobrowiec,&nbsp;G. A. Leite,&nbsp;G. M. Martins,&nbsp;J. Schöngart,&nbsp;C. C. Ribas","doi":"10.1111/ddi.70035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.70035","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Fire significantly contributes to Amazonian degradation, with igapó forests (seasonally flooded by blackwater rivers) being especially vulnerable. Igapó forests support species adapted to seasonal flooding, making fire a critical threat to these specialised organisms. Birds, due to their habitat specialisation, can provide insight into fire's impact on this environment. We investigated how fire events over time affect bird species richness and composition in igapó forests of the Negro River basin.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Negro River basin, Northwest Amazon.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We conducted bird surveys at 55 sites using autonomous recorders, totalling 2365 h of recordings. Sites included 18 control areas (igapó forests without fire from 1984 to 2022) and 37 burned sites (fire occurrence from 1984 to 2017). We compared bird species richness and composition across igapó treatments and analysed the effects of canopy cover and understorey density changes due to fire.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Burned areas showed higher bird species richness than unburned areas. Species composition was more similar in areas burned more than 20 years ago compared to recently burned areas (&lt; 10 years), although full recovery was not achieved. Species replacement was the main component affecting beta diversity. Canopy cover was the only variable directly influenced by time after fire. Both bird species composition and richness were directly affected by time after fire, though composition was also indirectly influenced through canopy cover.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Fire has a direct effect on species richness and composition. Canopy cover is more affected by time after fire than understorey density, also influencing bird species composition. A period of 38 years appeared insufficient for the full recovery of the bird community. Urgent measures for fire monitoring, preservation, and restoration of igapó remnants are essential.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":51018,"journal":{"name":"Diversity and Distributions","volume":"31 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ddi.70035","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143930445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Marginalising Time in Habitat Selection and Species Distribution Models Improves Inference","authors":"Joseph M. Eisaguirre,&nbsp;Layne G. Adams,&nbsp;Bridget L. Borg,&nbsp;Heather E. Johnson","doi":"10.1111/ddi.70028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.70028","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Recent methodological advances for studying how animals move and use space with telemetry data have focused on fine-scale, more mechanistic inference. However, in many cases, researchers and managers remain interested in larger scale questions regarding species distribution and habitat use across study areas, landscapes, or seasonal ranges. Point processes offer a unified framework for many methods applied in studies of species distribution and resource selection; however, challenges remain in terms of dealing with temporal autocorrelation common in many types of telemetry data collected from animal locations.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Innovation</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Space–time point processes (STPPs) have a unique property, in that marginalising time offers a connection between individual animal movement and broader point processes, yet this property has seen little attention in both statistical and applied research. In this paper, we first present some of the details of this marginalisation property and methods for applying marginalised STPPs (mSTTPs) to autocorrelated telemetry data and then apply a mSTTP in a case study on the summer space use and habitat selection of female caribou (<i>Rangifer tarandus</i>) in Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The case study demonstrated that an mSTPP approach can improve inference over other commonly used methods in terms of its ability to account for temporal autocorrelation and offers greater precision in parameter estimates and improved predictions of space use. As this method fits conveniently into the existing point process frameworks, it offers a practical solution to dealing with temporal autocorrelation inherent to many types of telemetry data when research questions center around broader scale patterns of animal habitat selection and space use.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":51018,"journal":{"name":"Diversity and Distributions","volume":"31 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ddi.70028","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143919568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Framework for Assessing the Habitat Correlates of Spatially Explicit Population Trends","authors":"Andrew N. Stillman,&nbsp;Courtney L. Davis,&nbsp;Kylee D. Dunham,&nbsp;Viviana Ruiz-Gutierrez,&nbsp;Amanda D. Rodewald,&nbsp;Alison Johnston,&nbsp;Tom Auer,&nbsp;Matt Strimas-Mackey,&nbsp;Shawn Ligocki,&nbsp;Daniel Fink","doi":"10.1111/ddi.70030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.70030","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Halting widespread biodiversity loss will require detailed information on species' trends and the habitat conditions correlated with population declines. However, constraints on conventional monitoring programs and commonplace approaches for trend estimation can make it difficult to obtain such information across species' ranges. Here, we demonstrate how recent developments in machine learning and model interpretation, combined with data sources derived from participatory science, enable landscape-scale inferences on the habitat correlates of population trends across broad spatial extents.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Worldwide, with a case study in the western United States.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We used interpretable machine learning to understand the relationships between land cover and spatially explicit bird population trends. Using a case study with three passerine birds in the western U.S. and spatially explicit trends derived from eBird data, we explore the potential impacts of simulated land cover modification while evaluating potential co-benefits among species.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Our analysis revealed complex, non-linear relationships between land cover variables and species' population trends as well as substantial interspecific variation in those relationships. Areas with the most positive impacts from a simulated land cover modification overlapped for two species, but these changes had little effect on the third species.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This framework can help conservation practitioners identify important relationships between species trends and habitat while also highlighting areas where potential modifications to the landscape could bring the biggest benefits. The analysis is transferable to hundreds of species worldwide with spatially explicit trend estimates, allowing inference across multiple species at scales that are tractable for management to combat species declines.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":51018,"journal":{"name":"Diversity and Distributions","volume":"31 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ddi.70030","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143908910","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Correction to ‘Behavioural Thermoregulation by Montane Ungulates Under Climate Warming’","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/ddi.70029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.70029","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Zhou, W., M. Wang, K. Gao, H. Gao, F. Wei, and Y. Nie. 2022. “Behavioural Thermoregulation by Montane Ungulates Under Climate Warming.” <i>Diversity and Distributions</i> 28: 2229–2238. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13626.</p><p>There was one redundant sentence under the Results section under Abstract ‘On this basis, we estimate that 27.9% (+2°C) and 46.7% (+3°C) of suitable summer habitats will become unsuitable under climate change’. This is now being corrected as shown below.</p><p><b>Results</b>: All four montane ungulate species examined here preferred ambient temperatures &lt; 22°C in summer. Chinese muntjac and tufted deer displayed behavioural changes to daily activity budgets, which may help them overcome global climate warming to a certain extent. By contrast, golden takin and wild boar did not display similar behavioural changes, and it may be because they are not affected by current shifts in climate due to larger body size and thus lower thermal stress.</p><p>We apologise for this error.</p>","PeriodicalId":51018,"journal":{"name":"Diversity and Distributions","volume":"31 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ddi.70029","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143901047","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From Hot to Cold Spots: Climate Change is Projected to Modify Diversity Patterns of Small Mammals in a Biodiversity Hotspot","authors":"Gabriela Alves-Ferreira,&nbsp;Maurício Humberto Vancine,&nbsp;Flávio Mariano Machado Mota,&nbsp;Carolina Bello,&nbsp;Thadeu Sobral-Souza,&nbsp;Alexandre R. Percequillo,&nbsp;Thomas E. Lacher Jr,&nbsp;Mauro Galetti,&nbsp;Ricardo S. Bovendorp","doi":"10.1111/ddi.70026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.70026","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Climate change represents one of the main threats to global biodiversity, and such alterations are expected to induce shifts in distribution ranges and diversity patterns. We evaluate if protected areas and forest remnants in the Atlantic Forest in South America (AF) are projected to ensure the taxonomic diversity (TD) and phylogenetic diversity (PD) of non-volant small mammals under scenarios of future climate change.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Atlantic Forest (AF), South America.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We used Species Distribution Modelling (SDMs) through an ensemble approach to assess the potential distribution of 101 species of small mammals using present (1979–2013) and future (2050 and 2070) climate scenarios. We consider optimistic and pessimistic greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (SSP370 and SSP585). We accessed TD through the sum of the suitable areas vs. areas of low or unknown suitability distribution maps for each species and PD using the sum of the branch lengths of a phylogenetic tree spatialised.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Our models suggest that climate change is likely to reduce the suitable climatic areas for small mammals in the AF. The shrinkage in the potential distribution is projected to lead to high loss of TD and PD. The southeastern region of the Atlantic Forest is likely to experience the most pronounced decline in PD, while some small areas in the southern Atlantic Forest are projected to increase PD in the future.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Our models suggest a strong decline in TD and in PD from biodiversity hotspot regions in the AF under climate change scenarios. Since small mammals have low dispersal ability, and because most of the AF is highly fragmented, it is unlikely that this biome will sustain small mammal biodiversity in the future.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":51018,"journal":{"name":"Diversity and Distributions","volume":"31 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ddi.70026","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143901104","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Environmental and Biological Drivers of Fish Beta Diversity and Tropical River Conservation in Northern Australia","authors":"Osmar J. Luiz,&nbsp;Danial Stratford,&nbsp;R. Keller Kopf","doi":"10.1111/ddi.70027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.70027","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study examines how species traits and landscape features shape beta diversity in Northern Australia's freshwater fish communities, with implications for identifying high-conservation-value river basins.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Northern Australia's freshwater ecosystems, covering 58 river basins draining into the Timor Sea, Arafura Sea, Gulf of Carpentaria, and Coral Sea.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We analysed four species-level traits—saltwater tolerance, body size, body shape, caudal throttle, and habitat use—to assess their influence on beta diversity at the river basin scale. Additionally, we examined five landscape features—basin area, elevation, terrain slope, ruggedness, and floodplain connectivity—using beta regression analysis to identify significant predictors of beta diversity.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>A total of 138 freshwater-associated fish species were recorded, including 76 freshwater-exclusive, 27 freshwater-brackish, and 35 diadromous species. Saltwater tolerance was a key driver of beta-diversity, with diadromous species showing higher Species Contribution to Beta Diversity (SCBD) values, indicating their role in connecting aquatic communities. Freshwater obligates contributed less to SCBD, highlighting their restricted distributions and endemism. Steeper, more rugged basins had higher species turnover, while floodplain connectivity did not homogenise fish communities as expected. Species-rich basins did not necessarily correspond to lower turnover, indicating unique assemblages, while high-nestedness basins were dominated by common species. Sites with intermediate nestedness and high alpha diversity act as biodiversity reservoirs.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Species traits and landscape complexity shape fish beta diversity in Northern Australia. Saltwater tolerance and topography strongly influence species distribution, while obligate freshwater species contribute significantly to regional diversity. Conservation strategies should prioritise basins with unique species compositions and biodiversity reservoirs, particularly the Daintree, Victoria, Daly, Finniss, and Roper rivers, to maintain ecological distinctiveness and resilience amid increasing development pressures.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":51018,"journal":{"name":"Diversity and Distributions","volume":"31 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ddi.70027","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143897165","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}