Geofizika最新文献

Mediterranean meteotsunamis of May 2021 and June 2022 2021 年 5 月和 2022 年 6 月的地中海流星雨

IF 1 4区地球科学

Geofizika Pub Date : 2023-11-22 DOI: 10.15233/gfz.2023.40.8

Mia Pupić Vurilj, Tina Brnas, Krešimir Ruić, J. Šepić, Marijana Balić

{"title":"Mediterranean meteotsunamis of May 2021 and June 2022","authors":"Mia Pupić Vurilj, Tina Brnas, Krešimir Ruić, J. Šepić, Marijana Balić","doi":"10.15233/gfz.2023.40.8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15233/gfz.2023.40.8","url":null,"abstract":"Meteorological tsunamis (i.e., tsunami-like waves of atmospheric origin) are regularly observed in the Mediterranean Sea. During a single event, destructive flooding usually occurs in one location or limited area. However, in May 2021 and June 2022, strong meteotsunamis hit several Mediterranean locations up to 500 km apart. In the morning hours of the 24th of May 2021, a meteotsunami hit Bonifacio on the island of Corsica (western Mediterranean, France) and in the afternoon hours of the same day, another meteotsunami hit Široka Bay on the island of Ist (Adriatic Sea, Croatia), 500 km away. About 13 months later, on the 26th of June 2022, a meteotsunami hit Ciutadella on the island of Menorca (Spain) and two days later Bonifacio, 400 km away. Sea-level and atmospheric pressure data and satellite imagery, as well as synoptic conditions, associated with both events were analysed in detail. It has been confirmed that in the Mediterranean, meteotsunamis occur when meteotsunamigenic synoptic conditions prevail over the area, with a strong southwesterly jet stream embedded in dynamically or convectively unstable atmospheric layers standing out as the most important condition. The meteotsunamigenic potential of each of the three bays (Ciutadella, Bonifacio, Široka Bay) was investigated by considering: (1) the potential for Proudman resonance on the shelves offshore of the bays, (2) the orientation of the mouth of the bay and (3) the frequency of meteotsunamigenic synoptic conditions over the area. The strongest and most frequent meteotsunamis occur at locations where the shelf characteristics (width, depth, orientation), bay mouth orientation and distribution of general synoptic conditions, have characteristics that support the amplification of long-ocean waves and their propagation toward the bay mouth.","PeriodicalId":50419,"journal":{"name":"Geofizika","volume":"26 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139248129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Očekivano toplinsko opterećenje Dubrovnika, Osijeka, Rijeke, Zadra i Zagreba prema projekcijama regionalnih klimatskih modela 预计杜布罗夫尼克、奥西耶克、里耶卡、扎达尔和萨格勒布将在地区气候模型前开展项目

IF 1 4区地球科学

Geofizika Pub Date : 2023-11-22 DOI: 10.15233/gfz.2023.40.6

Mia Agapito, Ivana Herceg-Bulić, Ivan Güttler

{"title":"Očekivano toplinsko opterećenje Dubrovnika, Osijeka, Rijeke, Zadra i Zagreba prema projekcijama regionalnih klimatskih modela","authors":"Mia Agapito, Ivana Herceg-Bulić, Ivan Güttler","doi":"10.15233/gfz.2023.40.6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15233/gfz.2023.40.6","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the expected future heat load in five Croatian cities: Dubrovnik, Zadar, Rijeka, Zagreb, and Osijek. The heat load is estimated by temperature-related climate indices and mean, maximum and minimum daily temperatures obtained by climate simulations using two different regional climate models (DHMZ-RegCM4 and SMHI-RCA4) with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km, forced with two global climate models (EC-EARTH and MPI-ESM-MR/LR) for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). By comparing these variables for the period 2041–2070 with respect to the current climate (defined as that of the period 1991–2020), a significant increase in mean, maximum and minimum temperatures was observed in all analysed combinations of regional and global climate models for all analysed cities. Although there is a difference in results depending on the combination of regional and global models, the largest increase is mainly found in the warm part of the year (April-October), with the strongest warming of Dubrovnik and Rijeka. Due to similar trends in minimum and maximum temperatures, the trend in the daily temperature range is weak. Under warmer climate conditions, the number of days with a maximum air temperature above 25 °C increases in all considered cities (especially in Dubrovnik), as does the number of days with a minimum air temperature exceeding 20 °C (especially in Rijeka and Zadar). Furthermore, a reduction in the number of days with maximum and minimum temperatures below 0 °C is projected for all cities. Nevertheless, some differences are found between coastal and inland cities caused by local factors.","PeriodicalId":50419,"journal":{"name":"Geofizika","volume":"45 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139250199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Short-term forecasting of PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations with Facebook's Prophet Model at the Belgrade-Zeleno brdo 利用 Facebook 的先知模型对贝尔格莱德-泽廖诺布尔道的 PM10 和 PM2.5 浓度进行短期预测

IF 1 4区地球科学

Geofizika Pub Date : 2023-11-22 DOI: 10.15233/gfz.2023.40.7

F. Arnaut, Vesna Cvetkov, Dragana M. Đurić, M. Samardzic-Petrovic

{"title":"Short-term forecasting of PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations with Facebook's Prophet Model at the Belgrade-Zeleno brdo","authors":"F. Arnaut, Vesna Cvetkov, Dragana M. Đurić, M. Samardzic-Petrovic","doi":"10.15233/gfz.2023.40.7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15233/gfz.2023.40.7","url":null,"abstract":"We demonstrate the use of Facebook's Prophet (usually just called Prophet) model for short-term air quality forecasting at Belgrade-Zeleno brdo monitoring station. To address missing data, we applied minimally-altering data distribution imputation techniques. Linear interpolation proved effective for short-term gaps (1–3 hours), hourly mean method for mid-term gaps (24–26 hours), and Hermite interpolation polynomial for long-term gaps (132–148 hours). The most significant data change was a 3.4% shift in skewness. Partitioning the time series enabled a detailed quality assessment of the Prophet model, with PM2.5 predictions being more precise than PM10. Using the longest time series for forecasting yielded absolute errors of 6.5 μg/m3 for PM10 and 2.7 μg/m3 for PM2.5. Based on 173 forecasts, we anticipate Prophet model root-mean-square values under 6.26 μg/m3 and 9.99 μg/m3 for PM2.5 and PM10 in 50% of cases. The Prophet model demonstrates several advantages and yields satisfactory results. In future research, the results obtained from the Prophet model will serve as benchmark values for other models. Additionally, the Prophet model is capable of providing satisfactory air quality forecasting results and will be utilized in future research.","PeriodicalId":50419,"journal":{"name":"Geofizika","volume":"138 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139250485","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Kratkoročna prognoza vidljivosti određena metodom slučajne šume 短期视觉预报是用偶然森林法确定的

IF 1 4区地球科学

Geofizika Pub Date : 2023-06-30 DOI: 10.15233/gfz.2023.40.5

David Sládek

{"title":"Kratkoročna prognoza vidljivosti određena metodom slučajne šume","authors":"David Sládek","doi":"10.15233/gfz.2023.40.5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15233/gfz.2023.40.5","url":null,"abstract":"Accurate visibility forecasting is essential for safe aircraft operations. This study examines how various configurations of the Random Forest model can enhance visibility predictions. Preprocessing techniques are employed, including correlation analysis to identify fundamental relationships in weather observations. Time-series data is transformed into a regular Data Frame to facilitate analysis. This study proposes a classification framework for organizing visibility data and phenomena, which is then used to develop a visibility forecast using the Random Forest method. The study also presents procedures for hyperparameter tuning, feature selection, data balancing, and accuracy evaluation for this dataset. The main outcomes are the Random Forest model parameters for a three-hour visibility forecast, along with an analysis of errors in low visibility forecasts. Additionally, models for one-hour forecasts and visibility forecasting under precipitation are also examined. The resulting models demonstrate a deterministic forecast accuracy of approximately 78%, with a false alarm rate of around 6%, providing a comprehensive overview of the capabilities of the Random Forest model for visibility forecasting. As anticipated, the model demonstrated limitations in accurately simulating fast radiative cooling or abrupt decreases in visibility caused by precipitation. Specifically, in relation to precipitation, the model achieved an accuracy of 79%, yet exhibited a false alarm rate of 19%. Additionally, this method sets a foundation for enhancing prediction accuracy through the inclusion of supplementary forecast data, while its implementation on real-world datasets expands the reach of machine learning techniques to the members of the meteorological community.","PeriodicalId":50419,"journal":{"name":"Geofizika","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45853404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Statistical analogies between earthquakes, micro-quakes in metals and avalanches in the 1D Burridge-Knopoff model 一维Burridge-Knopoff模型中地震、金属微震和雪崩之间的统计类比

IF 1 4区地球科学

Geofizika Pub Date : 2023-06-30 DOI: 10.15233/gfz.2023.40.4

András Kuki, S. Lipcsei, I. Gere, F. Járai-Szabó, Attila Gergely, Dávid Ugi, P. D. Ispánovity, Z. Dankházi, I. Groma, Z. Néda

{"title":"Statistical analogies between earthquakes, micro-quakes in metals and avalanches in the 1D Burridge-Knopoff model","authors":"András Kuki, S. Lipcsei, I. Gere, F. Járai-Szabó, Attila Gergely, Dávid Ugi, P. D. Ispánovity, Z. Dankházi, I. Groma, Z. Néda","doi":"10.15233/gfz.2023.40.4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15233/gfz.2023.40.4","url":null,"abstract":"Universalities and intriguing analogies in the statistics of avalanches are revealed for three physical systems defined on largely different length and energy scales. Earthquakes induced by tectonic scale dynamics, micro-scale level quakes observed from slipping crystallographic planes in metals and a one-dimensional, room-scale spring-block type Burridge-Knopoff model is studied from similar statistical viewpoints. The validity of the Gutenberg-Richter law for the probability density of the energies dissipated in the avalanches is proven for all three systems. By analysing data for three different seismic zones and performing acoustic detection for different Zn samples under deformation, universality for the involved scaling exponent is revealed. With proper parameter choices the 1D Burridge-Knopoff model is able to reproduce the same scaling law. The recurrence times of earthquakes and micro-quakes with magnitudes above a given threshold present again similar distributions and striking quantitative similarities. However, the 1D Burridge-Knopoff model cannot account for the correlations observed in such statistics.","PeriodicalId":50419,"journal":{"name":"Geofizika","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43523759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Evaluation of meteorological time series trends in Southeastern Anatolia, Turkey 土耳其安纳托利亚东南部气象时间序列趋势评价

IF 1 4区地球科学

Geofizika Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.15233/gfz.2023.40.3

V. Gümüş, Yavuz Avşaroğlu, O. Şimşek, Latif Doğan Dinsever

引用次数: 1

Development of normalized soil area index for urban studies using remote sensing data 基于遥感数据的归一化土壤面积指数的城市研究

IF 1 4区地球科学

Geofizika Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.15233/gfz.2023.40.2

Akib Javed, Mardia, N. Sumari, Muhammad Nasar Ahmad, Nayyer Saleem, M. Ali, Md. Enamul Huq, I. Ara, Jiabin Wang, Zhuoyang Yu, Bin Bai, Z. Shao

{"title":"Development of normalized soil area index for urban studies using remote sensing data","authors":"Akib Javed, Mardia, N. Sumari, Muhammad Nasar Ahmad, Nayyer Saleem, M. Ali, Md. Enamul Huq, I. Ara, Jiabin Wang, Zhuoyang Yu, Bin Bai, Z. Shao","doi":"10.15233/gfz.2023.40.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15233/gfz.2023.40.2","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents two novel spectral soil area indices to identify bare soil area and distinguish it more accurately from the urban impervious surface area (ISA). This study designs these indices based on medium spatial resolution remote sensing data from Landsat 8 OLI dataset. Extracting bare soil or urban ISA is more challenging than extracting water bodies or vegetation in multispectral Remote Sensing (RS). Bare soil and the urban ISA area often were mixed because of their spectral similarity in multispectral sensors. This study proposes Normalized Soil Area Index 1 (NSAI1) and Normalized Soil Area Index 2 (NSAI2) using typical multispectral bands. Experiments show that these two indices have an overall accuracy of around 90%. The spectral similarity index (SDI) shows these two indices have higher separability between soil area and ISA than previous indices. The result shows that percentile thresholds can effectively classify bare soil areas from the background. The combined use of both indices measured the soil area of the study area over 71 km2. Most importantly, proposed soil indices can refine urban ISA measurement accuracy in spatiotemporal studies.","PeriodicalId":50419,"journal":{"name":"Geofizika","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67354237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The role of slope inclination, doline density and water budget analysis in delineation of complex karst catchment area of Slunjčica River (Croatia) 坡度、线密度和水量收支分析在克罗地亚slunj<e:1>河复杂岩溶集水区圈定中的作用

IF 1 4区地球科学

Geofizika Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.15233/gfz.2023.40.1

Dado Gladović, Jelena Parlov, Dario Perković, Zoran Nakić, Zoran Kovač

{"title":"The role of slope inclination, doline density and water budget analysis in delineation of complex karst catchment area of Slunjčica River (Croatia)","authors":"Dado Gladović, Jelena Parlov, Dario Perković, Zoran Nakić, Zoran Kovač","doi":"10.15233/gfz.2023.40.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15233/gfz.2023.40.1","url":null,"abstract":"Due to the high vulnerability of the karst aquifer to the surface contaminants, a precisely defined catchment area has the highest priority. In this study, the influence of slope inclination, the doline density analysis, and the water budget analysis in the delineation process of a complex karst catchment area is discussed. To define hydrogeological role of lithological units, cross sections of slope inclination and doline density were combined with hydrogeological cross sections, while the degree of karstification was used to describe the permeability of rock units. The verification of karst catchment delineation area was performed with water budget analysis. The methodology used for the determination of hydrogeological behavior and delineation of a complex karst catchment area (Slunjčica River basin, Croatia) is shown with the flow diagram. It has been found that the highest doline density appears in the range from 0 to 1° of the slope inclinations, and that it decreases with a higher slope degree. Although the results of this study confirm that even with the relatively small number of input data it is possible to define the karst catchment area, it must be emphasized that the doline density analysis presents an indispensable tool in the research related to the definition of karst catchment areas.","PeriodicalId":50419,"journal":{"name":"Geofizika","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67354024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Temperature characteristics and heat load in the City of Dubrovnik 杜布罗夫尼克市的温度特性和热负荷

IF 1 4区地球科学

Geofizika Pub Date : 2022-11-29 DOI: 10.15233/gfz.2022.39.16

Marijana Boras, Ivana Herceg-Bulić, Matej Žgela, Irena Nimac

{"title":"Temperature characteristics and heat load in the City of Dubrovnik","authors":"Marijana Boras, Ivana Herceg-Bulić, Matej Žgela, Irena Nimac","doi":"10.15233/gfz.2022.39.16","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15233/gfz.2022.39.16","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, temperature characteristics and heat load in the city of Dubrovnik are investigated by using temperature data observed at the local meteorological station in Dubrovnik for the period 1961-2019, satellite data collected by LANDSAT5 satellite for the period 2001-2010, and climate indices data obtained from simulations of an urban climate model (MUKLIMO_3) for the period 2001-2010. Trends in daily mean, maximum, minimum, and seasonal temperatures were analysed by using Sen's slope and the Mann-Kendall test. Results reveal rising trends for all of the studied temperature-related elements. However, it is demonstrated that temperature increase is greatest for the summer season with the highest rise for daily maximum temperatures. The same approach was applied to examine trends of climate indices (summer days and tropical nights), which indicates an increase in the number of both summer days and tropical nights. Results of satellite data of average summer land surface temperatures for the period 2001-2010 indicate that urbanised surfaces and bare rock areas heat up more than natural surfaces with vegetation. Climate indices (summer and hot days, warm evenings, and tropical nights) simulated by the urban climate model MUKLIMO_3 also reveal that, on average, in the city of Dubrovnik urbanised surfaces heat up more than natural surfaces with vegetation and that nocturnal heat load is reduced in lower-density built-up areas.","PeriodicalId":50419,"journal":{"name":"Geofizika","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44767982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Quantifying the water soil erosion rate using RUSLE, GIS, and RS approach for Al-Qshish River Basin, Lattakia, Syria 使用RUSLE、GIS和RS方法量化叙利亚拉塔基亚Al-Qshish河流域的水土流失率

IF 1 4区地球科学

Geofizika Pub Date : 2022-11-29 DOI: 10.15233/gfz.2022.39.12

H. Abdo, Hussein Almohamad, Ahmed Abdullah Al Dughairi, M. Al-Mutiry

{"title":"Quantifying the water soil erosion rate using RUSLE, GIS, and RS approach for Al-Qshish River Basin, Lattakia, Syria","authors":"H. Abdo, Hussein Almohamad, Ahmed Abdullah Al Dughairi, M. Al-Mutiry","doi":"10.15233/gfz.2022.39.12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15233/gfz.2022.39.12","url":null,"abstract":"Soil erosion is one of the most prominent geomorphological hazards threatening environmental sustainability in the coastal region of western Syria. The current war conditions in Syria has led to a lack of field data and measurements related to assessing soil erosion. Mapping the spatial distribution of potential soil erosion is a basic step in implementing soil preservation procedures mainly in the river catchments. The present paper aims to conduct a comprehensive assessment of soil erosion severity using revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) and remote sensing (RS) data in geographic information system (GIS) environment across the whole Al-Qshish river basin. Quantitatively, the annual rate of soil erosion in the study basin was 81.1 t ha−1 year−1 with a spatial average reaching 55.2 t ha−1 year−1. Spatially, the soil erosion risk map was produced with classification into five susceptible-zones: very low (41 %), low (40.5%), moderate (8.9%), high (5.4%) and very high (4.2%). The current study presented a reliable assessment of soil loss rates and classification of erosion-susceptible areas within the study basin. These outputs can be relied upon to create measures for maintaining areas with high and very high soil erosion susceptibility under the current war conditions.","PeriodicalId":50419,"journal":{"name":"Geofizika","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48984576","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0