{"title":"预计杜布罗夫尼克、奥西耶克、里耶卡、扎达尔和萨格勒布将在地区气候模型前开展项目","authors":"Mia Agapito, Ivana Herceg-Bulić, Ivan Güttler","doi":"10.15233/gfz.2023.40.6","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the expected future heat load in five Croatian cities: Dubrovnik, Zadar, Rijeka, Zagreb, and Osijek. The heat load is estimated by temperature-related climate indices and mean, maximum and minimum daily temperatures obtained by climate simulations using two different regional climate models (DHMZ-RegCM4 and SMHI-RCA4) with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km, forced with two global climate models (EC-EARTH and MPI-ESM-MR/LR) for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). By comparing these variables for the period 2041–2070 with respect to the current climate (defined as that of the period 1991–2020), a significant increase in mean, maximum and minimum temperatures was observed in all analysed combinations of regional and global climate models for all analysed cities. Although there is a difference in results depending on the combination of regional and global models, the largest increase is mainly found in the warm part of the year (April-October), with the strongest warming of Dubrovnik and Rijeka. Due to similar trends in minimum and maximum temperatures, the trend in the daily temperature range is weak. Under warmer climate conditions, the number of days with a maximum air temperature above 25 °C increases in all considered cities (especially in Dubrovnik), as does the number of days with a minimum air temperature exceeding 20 °C (especially in Rijeka and Zadar). Furthermore, a reduction in the number of days with maximum and minimum temperatures below 0 °C is projected for all cities. Nevertheless, some differences are found between coastal and inland cities caused by local factors.","PeriodicalId":50419,"journal":{"name":"Geofizika","volume":"45 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9000,"publicationDate":"2023-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Očekivano toplinsko opterećenje Dubrovnika, Osijeka, Rijeke, Zadra i Zagreba prema projekcijama regionalnih klimatskih modela\",\"authors\":\"Mia Agapito, Ivana Herceg-Bulić, Ivan Güttler\",\"doi\":\"10.15233/gfz.2023.40.6\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This paper examines the expected future heat load in five Croatian cities: Dubrovnik, Zadar, Rijeka, Zagreb, and Osijek. The heat load is estimated by temperature-related climate indices and mean, maximum and minimum daily temperatures obtained by climate simulations using two different regional climate models (DHMZ-RegCM4 and SMHI-RCA4) with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km, forced with two global climate models (EC-EARTH and MPI-ESM-MR/LR) for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). By comparing these variables for the period 2041–2070 with respect to the current climate (defined as that of the period 1991–2020), a significant increase in mean, maximum and minimum temperatures was observed in all analysed combinations of regional and global climate models for all analysed cities. Although there is a difference in results depending on the combination of regional and global models, the largest increase is mainly found in the warm part of the year (April-October), with the strongest warming of Dubrovnik and Rijeka. Due to similar trends in minimum and maximum temperatures, the trend in the daily temperature range is weak. Under warmer climate conditions, the number of days with a maximum air temperature above 25 °C increases in all considered cities (especially in Dubrovnik), as does the number of days with a minimum air temperature exceeding 20 °C (especially in Rijeka and Zadar). Furthermore, a reduction in the number of days with maximum and minimum temperatures below 0 °C is projected for all cities. 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引用次数: 0
摘要
本文研究了克罗地亚五个城市未来的预期热负荷:杜布罗夫尼克、扎达尔、里耶卡、萨格勒布和奥西耶克。热负荷是通过与温度相关的气候指数以及日平均气温、最高气温和最低气温估算得出的,这些数据是使用两个不同的区域气候模型(DHMZ-RegCM4 和 SMHI-RCA4)进行气候模拟得出的,水平分辨率为 12.5 千米,并使用两个全球气候模型(EC-EARTH 和 MPI-ESM-MR/LR)对两种不同的温室气体浓度情景(RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5)进行模拟。通过比较 2041-2070 年期间与当前气候(定义为 1991-2020 年期间)的这些变量,在所有分析的区域和全球气候模型组合中,观察到所有分析城市的平均气温、最高气温和最低气温显著上升。虽然地区和全球模型组合的结果有所不同,但最大的增幅主要出现在一年中的温暖季节(4 月至 10 月),杜布罗夫尼克和里耶卡的升温幅度最大。由于最低气温和最高气温的变化趋势相似,日气温变化趋势较弱。在气候变暖的情况下,所有城市(尤其是杜布罗夫尼克)最高气温超过 25 °C 的天数都会增加,最低气温超过 20 °C 的天数也会增加(尤其是里耶卡和扎达尔)。此外,预计所有城市的最高气温和最低气温低于 0 °C 的天数都会减少。然而,由于当地因素,沿海城市和内陆城市之间存在一些差异。
Očekivano toplinsko opterećenje Dubrovnika, Osijeka, Rijeke, Zadra i Zagreba prema projekcijama regionalnih klimatskih modela
This paper examines the expected future heat load in five Croatian cities: Dubrovnik, Zadar, Rijeka, Zagreb, and Osijek. The heat load is estimated by temperature-related climate indices and mean, maximum and minimum daily temperatures obtained by climate simulations using two different regional climate models (DHMZ-RegCM4 and SMHI-RCA4) with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km, forced with two global climate models (EC-EARTH and MPI-ESM-MR/LR) for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). By comparing these variables for the period 2041–2070 with respect to the current climate (defined as that of the period 1991–2020), a significant increase in mean, maximum and minimum temperatures was observed in all analysed combinations of regional and global climate models for all analysed cities. Although there is a difference in results depending on the combination of regional and global models, the largest increase is mainly found in the warm part of the year (April-October), with the strongest warming of Dubrovnik and Rijeka. Due to similar trends in minimum and maximum temperatures, the trend in the daily temperature range is weak. Under warmer climate conditions, the number of days with a maximum air temperature above 25 °C increases in all considered cities (especially in Dubrovnik), as does the number of days with a minimum air temperature exceeding 20 °C (especially in Rijeka and Zadar). Furthermore, a reduction in the number of days with maximum and minimum temperatures below 0 °C is projected for all cities. Nevertheless, some differences are found between coastal and inland cities caused by local factors.
期刊介绍:
The Geofizika journal succeeds the Papers series (Radovi), which has been published since 1923 at the Geophysical Institute in Zagreb (current the Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb).
Geofizika publishes contributions dealing with physics of the atmosphere, the sea and the Earth''s interior.