发布求助
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献

arXiv - ECON - General Economics最新文献

筛选
英文 中文
Estimating Heterogenous Treatment Effects for Survival Data with Doubly Doubly Robust Estimator 用双倍稳健估计器估计生存数据的异质性治疗效果
arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI: arxiv-2409.01412
Guanghui Pan
{"title":"Estimating Heterogenous Treatment Effects for Survival Data with Doubly Doubly Robust Estimator","authors":"Guanghui Pan","doi":"arxiv-2409.01412","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2409.01412","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we introduce a doubly doubly robust estimator for the average\u0000and heterogeneous treatment effect for left-truncated-right-censored (LTRC)\u0000survival data. In causal inference for survival functions in LTRC survival\u0000data, two missing data issues are noteworthy: one is the missing data of\u0000counterfactuals for causal inference, and the other is the missing data due to\u0000truncation and censoring. Based on previous research on non-parametric deep\u0000learning estimation in survival analysis, this paper proposes an algorithm to\u0000obtain an efficient estimate of the average and heterogeneous causal effect. We\u0000simulate the data and compare our methods with the marginal hazard ratio\u0000estimation, the naive plug-in estimation, and the doubly robust causal with Cox\u0000Proportional Hazard estimation and illustrate the advantages and disadvantages\u0000of the model application.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"2012 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142192977","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Shrouded Sin Taxes 罪恶税
arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI: arxiv-2409.01493
Johannes Kasinger
{"title":"Shrouded Sin Taxes","authors":"Johannes Kasinger","doi":"arxiv-2409.01493","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2409.01493","url":null,"abstract":"Strategic shrouding of taxes by profit-maximizing firms can impair the\u0000effectiveness of corrective taxes. This paper explores tax shrouding and its\u0000consequences after the introduction of a digital sin tax designed to discourage\u0000harmful overconsumption of online sports betting in Germany. In response to the\u0000tax reform, most firms strategically shroud the tax, i.e., exclude tax\u0000surcharges from posted prices. Using an extensive novel panel data set on\u0000online betting odds, I causally estimate the effect of the tax on consumer\u0000betting prices. Consumers bear, on average, 76% of the tax burden. There is\u0000considerable and long-lasting heterogeneity in effects conditional on shrouding\u0000practices. Firms that shroud taxes can pass 90% of the tax onto consumers,\u0000while the pass-through rate is 16% for firms that directly post tax-inclusive\u0000prices. To understand the results' underlying mechanisms and policy\u0000implications, I propose an optimal corrective taxation model where\u0000oligopolistic firms compete on base prices and can shroud additive taxes. Tax\u0000shrouding is only attainable in equilibrium if (some) consumers underreact to\u0000shrouded attributes. According to the theoretical predictions, the empirically\u0000identified heterogeneity suggests that strategic tax shrouding significantly\u0000attenuates the positive corrective welfare effects of the tax. The results\u0000prompt regulating shrouding practices in the context of corrective taxation.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"60 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142192976","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Stochastic Monotonicity and Random Utility Models: The Good and The Ugly 随机单调性与随机效用模型：好与坏
arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: arxiv-2409.00704
Henk Keffert, Nikolaus Schweizer
{"title":"Stochastic Monotonicity and Random Utility Models: The Good and The Ugly","authors":"Henk Keffert, Nikolaus Schweizer","doi":"arxiv-2409.00704","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2409.00704","url":null,"abstract":"When it comes to structural estimation of risk preferences from data on\u0000choices, random utility models have long been one of the standard research\u0000tools in economics. A recent literature has challenged these models, pointing\u0000out some concerning monotonicity and, thus, identification problems. In this\u0000paper, we take a second look and point out that some of the criticism - while\u0000extremely valid - may have gone too far, demanding monotonicity of choice\u0000probabilities in decisions where it is not so clear whether it should be\u0000imposed. We introduce a new class of random utility models based on carefully\u0000constructed generalized risk premia which always satisfy our relaxed\u0000monotonicity criteria. Moreover, we show that some of the models used in\u0000applied research like the certainty-equivalent-based random utility model for\u0000CARA utility actually lie in this class of monotonic stochastic choice models.\u0000We conclude that not all random utility models are bad.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142193020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An essay on the history of DSGE models 关于 DSGE 模型历史的论文
arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: arxiv-2409.00812
Genaro Martín Damiani
{"title":"An essay on the history of DSGE models","authors":"Genaro Martín Damiani","doi":"arxiv-2409.00812","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2409.00812","url":null,"abstract":"Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models, which are nowadays a\u0000crucial element of the set of quantitative tools that policy-makers have, did\u0000not emerge spontaneously. They rely on previously established ideas in\u0000Economics and relatively recent advancements in Mathematics. I aim to provide a\u0000comprehensive coverage of their history, starting from the pioneering\u0000Neoclassical general equilibrium theories and eventually reaching the New\u0000Neoclassical Synthesis (NNS). I thoroughly present the mathematical tools\u0000involved in formulating a DSGE model. I claim that this history has a mixed\u0000nature rather than an absolutist or relativist one, that the NNS may have\u0000emerged due to the complementary nature of New Classical and New Keynesian\u0000theories, and that the recent adoption and development of DSGE models by\u0000central banks from different countries has entailed a departure from the goal\u0000of building a universally valid theory that Economics has always had. The\u0000latter means that DSGE modeling has landed not without loss of generality.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142193016","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Nasdaq-100 Companies' Hiring Insights: A Topic-based Classification Approach to the Labor Market 纳斯达克 100 强公司的招聘启示：基于主题的劳动力市场分类方法
arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: arxiv-2409.00658
Seyed Mohammad Ali Jafari, Ehsan Chitsaz
{"title":"Nasdaq-100 Companies' Hiring Insights: A Topic-based Classification Approach to the Labor Market","authors":"Seyed Mohammad Ali Jafari, Ehsan Chitsaz","doi":"arxiv-2409.00658","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2409.00658","url":null,"abstract":"The emergence of new and disruptive technologies makes the economy and labor\u0000market more unstable. To overcome this kind of uncertainty and to make the\u0000labor market more comprehensible, we must employ labor market intelligence\u0000techniques, which are predominantly based on data analysis. Companies use job\u0000posting sites to advertise their job vacancies, known as online job vacancies\u0000(OJVs). LinkedIn is one of the most utilized websites for matching the supply\u0000and demand sides of the labor market; companies post their job vacancies on\u0000their job pages, and LinkedIn recommends these jobs to job seekers who are\u0000likely to be interested. However, with the vast number of online job vacancies,\u0000it becomes challenging to discern overarching trends in the labor market. In\u0000this paper, we propose a data mining-based approach for job classification in\u0000the modern online labor market. We employed structural topic modeling as our\u0000methodology and used the NASDAQ-100 indexed companies' online job vacancies on\u0000LinkedIn as the input data. We discover that among all 13 job categories,\u0000Marketing, Branding, and Sales; Software Engineering; Hardware Engineering;\u0000Industrial Engineering; and Project Management are the most frequently posted\u0000job classifications. This study aims to provide a clearer understanding of job\u0000market trends, enabling stakeholders to make informed decisions in a rapidly\u0000evolving employment landscape.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142193019","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike. A Replication of Kilian (American Economic Review, 2009) 并非所有石油价格冲击都一样。基里安的复制》（《美国经济评论》，2009 年）
arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: arxiv-2409.00769
Rich Ryan, Nyakundi Michieka
{"title":"Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike. A Replication of Kilian (American Economic Review, 2009)","authors":"Rich Ryan, Nyakundi Michieka","doi":"arxiv-2409.00769","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2409.00769","url":null,"abstract":"The price of oil can rise because of a disruption to supply or an increase in\u0000demand. The nature of the price change determines the dynamic effects. As\u0000Kilian (2009) put it: \"not all oil price shocks are alike.\" Using the latest\u0000available data, we extend Kilian's (2009) analysis using the R ecosystem and\u0000provide more evidence for Kilian's (2009) conclusions. Inference based on\u0000unknown conditional heteroskedasticity strengthens the conclusions. With the\u0000updated shocks, we assess how a local economy responds to the global oil\u0000market, an application that is relevant to policymakers concerned with the\u0000transition away from fossil fuels.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142193022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does ESG Consistently Promote the Corporate Financial Performance? A Study of the Global Cruise Industry 环境、社会和公司治理是否始终如一地促进公司财务业绩？全球邮轮业研究
arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: arxiv-2409.00758
Yuechen Wu
{"title":"Does ESG Consistently Promote the Corporate Financial Performance? A Study of the Global Cruise Industry","authors":"Yuechen Wu","doi":"arxiv-2409.00758","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2409.00758","url":null,"abstract":"The analysis of determinants of a company's financial performance has aroused\u0000significant attention, particularly, the environmental, social, and governance\u0000(ESG) has been the research focus in recent years. In addition to increasing\u0000revenue, the cruise industry has actively embraced the initiative of \"green\u0000shipping\". This study investigates the relationship between ESG and corporate\u0000financial performance (CFP) in the global cruise sector. This paper utilizes\u0000the sample data from the world's largest cruise companies over 2012-2023, to\u0000examine the ESG-CFP relationship by a regression model. The results indicate\u0000that ESG practices in cruise companies negatively influence CFP, which is\u0000further impacted by financial constraints. Furthermore, the heterogeneity\u0000analysis suggests that the high time interest earned (TIE) ratios and low total\u0000annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions worsen the adverse impacts of ESG on CFP.\u0000These findings contribute to the theoretical research on ESG and provide\u0000practical guidance for cruise industry operators and investors in their\u0000decision-making.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142193018","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Credit Scores: Performance and Equity 信用评分：绩效与公平
arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: arxiv-2409.00296
Stefania Albanesi, Domonkos F. Vamossy
{"title":"Credit Scores: Performance and Equity","authors":"Stefania Albanesi, Domonkos F. Vamossy","doi":"arxiv-2409.00296","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2409.00296","url":null,"abstract":"Credit scores are critical for allocating consumer debt in the United States,\u0000yet little evidence is available on their performance. We benchmark a widely\u0000used credit score against a machine learning model of consumer default and find\u0000significant misclassification of borrowers, especially those with low scores.\u0000Our model improves predictive accuracy for young, low-income, and minority\u0000groups due to its superior performance with low quality data, resulting in a\u0000gain in standing for these populations. Our findings suggest that improving\u0000credit scoring performance could lead to more equitable access to credit.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"58 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142193021","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimal Strategy in Werewolf Game: A Game Theoretic Perspective 狼人游戏中的最佳策略：博弈论视角
arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: arxiv-2408.17177
ST Wang
{"title":"Optimal Strategy in Werewolf Game: A Game Theoretic Perspective","authors":"ST Wang","doi":"arxiv-2408.17177","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.17177","url":null,"abstract":"Werewolf game, also known as Mafia game, is a social deduction game that\u0000models the conflict between an informed minority (werewolf group) and an\u0000uninformed majority (citizen group). This paper explores the optimal strategies\u0000of the werewolf game from the perspective of game theory, focusing on cases\u0000both with and without prophet. First we examine the existing strategy in game\u0000without prophet and propose ``random strategy +\", which provides an improved\u0000winning probability for the werewolve group. Then we further study the game\u0000with prophet, and find the game with prophet can be transformed into a\u0000extensive game with complete but imperfect information under a specific rule.\u0000We construct a model and design an algorithm to achieve PBE and maximize the\u0000citizen group's winning probability. In the end, we examine a property of PBE\u0000in game without any restriction.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"41 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142193024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Investor behavior and multiscale cross-correlations: Unveiling regime shifts in global financial markets 投资者行为与多尺度交叉相关性：揭示全球金融市场的制度变迁
arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: arxiv-2408.17200
Marina Dolfin, George Kapetanios, Leone Leonida, Jose De Leon Miranda
{"title":"Investor behavior and multiscale cross-correlations: Unveiling regime shifts in global financial markets","authors":"Marina Dolfin, George Kapetanios, Leone Leonida, Jose De Leon Miranda","doi":"arxiv-2408.17200","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.17200","url":null,"abstract":"We propose an algorithm to capture emergent patterns in the\u0000cross-correlations of financial markets, highlighting regime changes on a\u0000global scale. In our approach, financial markets are viewed as complex adaptive\u0000systems, and multiscale properties and cross-correlations are considered,\u0000particularly during stress conditions such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the\u0000invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022, and Brexit. We investigate whether\u0000significant disruptions reflect an imbalance in investment horizons among\u0000investors, and we propose a measure based on this imbalance to depict the\u0000impact on global financial markets. The detrended cross-correlation cost\u0000(DCCC), which is derived from detrended cross-correlation analysis, uses\u0000cross-correlations at different timescales to capture variations in investment\u0000horizons amid financial uncertainties. Our algorithm, which combines DCCC\u0000analysis and the minimum-spanning-tree filtering approach, tracks system\u0000interconnectedness and investor imbalances. We tested the DCCC indicator using\u0000daily price series of G7, Russian, and Chinese markets over the past decade and\u0000found that it increases sharply during ``crash'' periods compared to ``business\u0000as usual'' periods. Our empirical results confirm that short-term investment\u0000horizons dominate during financial instabilities; this validates our hypothesis\u0000and indicates that the DCCC can serve as a leading indicator of shifts in\u0000financial-market regimes.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"60 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142193023","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
首页 上一页 下一页 尾页
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整，为了账户安全，请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
相关产品
×
本文献相关产品
联系我们：info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务，方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号：481959085
Book学术官方微信