arXiv - ECON - General Economics最新文献_第10页

Towards fair roads -- Why we should & how to improve the fairness in traffic engineering 走向公平的道路--为什么我们应该及如何提高交通工程的公平性

arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-08-02 DOI: arxiv-2408.01309

Kevin Riehl, Anastasios Kouvelas, Michail Makridis

引用次数: 0

Jumping on the bandwagon and off the Titanic: an experimental study of turnout in two-tier voting 跳上浪潮，跳下泰坦尼克号：两级投票中投票率的实验研究

arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-08-01 DOI: arxiv-2408.00265

Yoichi Hizen, Kazuya Kikuchi, Yukio Koriyama, Takehito Masuda

引用次数: 0

Spatial Weather, Socio-Economic and Political Risks in Probabilistic Load Forecasting 概率负荷预测中的空间天气、社会经济和政治风险

arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-08-01 DOI: arxiv-2408.00507

Monika Zimmermann, Florian Ziel

{"title":"Spatial Weather, Socio-Economic and Political Risks in Probabilistic Load Forecasting","authors":"Monika Zimmermann, Florian Ziel","doi":"arxiv-2408.00507","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.00507","url":null,"abstract":"Accurate forecasts of the impact of spatial weather and pan-European\u0000socio-economic and political risks on hourly electricity demand for the\u0000mid-term horizon are crucial for strategic decision-making amidst the inherent\u0000uncertainty. Most importantly, these forecasts are essential for the\u0000operational management of power plants, ensuring supply security and grid\u0000stability, and in guiding energy trading and investment decisions. The primary\u0000challenge for this forecasting task lies in disentangling the multifaceted\u0000drivers of load, which include national deterministic (daily, weekly, annual,\u0000and holiday patterns) and national stochastic weather and autoregressive\u0000effects. Additionally, transnational stochastic socio-economic and political\u0000effects add further complexity, in particular, due to their non-stationarity.\u0000To address this challenge, we present an interpretable probabilistic mid-term\u0000forecasting model for the hourly load that captures, besides all deterministic\u0000effects, the various uncertainties in load. This model recognizes transnational\u0000dependencies across 24 European countries, with multivariate modeled\u0000socio-economic and political states and cross-country dependent forecasting.\u0000Built from interpretable Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), the model enables\u0000an analysis of the transmission of each incorporated effect to the\u0000hour-specific load. Our findings highlight the vulnerability of countries\u0000reliant on electric heating under extreme weather scenarios. This emphasizes\u0000the need for high-resolution forecasting of weather effects on pan-European\u0000electricity consumption especially in anticipation of widespread electric\u0000heating adoption.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141884652","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A Perfect Storm: First-Nature Geography and Economic Development 完美风暴第一自然地理与经济发展

arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-08-01 DOI: arxiv-2408.00885

Christian Vedel

引用次数: 0

Hydrological collapse in southern Spain under expanding irrigated agriculture: Meteorological, hydrological, and structural drought 西班牙南部灌溉农业不断扩大情况下的水文崩溃：气象、水文和结构性干旱

arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-08-01 DOI: arxiv-2408.00683

Victoria Junquera, Daniel I. Rubenstein, Simon A. Levin, José I. Hormaza, Iñaki Vadillo Pérez, Pablo Jiménez Gavilán

{"title":"Hydrological collapse in southern Spain under expanding irrigated agriculture: Meteorological, hydrological, and structural drought","authors":"Victoria Junquera, Daniel I. Rubenstein, Simon A. Levin, José I. Hormaza, Iñaki Vadillo Pérez, Pablo Jiménez Gavilán","doi":"arxiv-2408.00683","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.00683","url":null,"abstract":"Spain is the largest producer of avocado and mango fruits in Europe. The\u0000majority of production is concentrated in the Axarqu'ia region in the south,\u0000where subtropical fruit plantations and associated water demands have steadily\u0000increased over the last two decades. Between 2019-2024, the region underwent an\u0000extreme water crisis. Reservoir reserves became nearly depleted and groundwater\u0000levels dropped to sea level in several locations, where seawater intrusion is\u0000likely, causing large socioeconomic impacts including short-term harvest losses\u0000and a long-term loss in economic centrality. We examine the causal pathway that\u0000led to this crisis using a mixed-methods approach, combining data from key\u0000informant interviews, an exhaustive review of legal documents, and quantitative\u0000analysis of time series and spatially explicit data. In particular, we analyze\u0000dam water use for irrigation and urban use, meteorological data, reservoir and\u0000groundwater levels, and irrigation land cover maps. Our findings show that an\u0000unusual meteorological drought was the immediate cause for the decline in\u0000reservoir and groundwater reserves (hydrological drought), but the underlying\u0000cause was a chronic and structural long-term imbalance between water demand and\u0000resources resulting from several structural governance shortcomings: large\u0000uncertainties in water resource availability and use hampering effective\u0000planning, lack of enforcement of individual water quotas, and the absence of\u0000regulatory mechanisms to flexibly impose resource use restrictions at both\u0000micro and macro levels based on the overall resources of the system. We propose\u0000concrete policy interventions aimed at sustainably enhancing the resilience of\u0000the system that can be useful to efficiently manage water shortages in other\u0000regions with similar problems.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"190 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141884651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Price formation without fuel costs: the interaction of elastic demand with storage bidding 无燃料成本的价格形成：弹性需求与存储竞价的相互作用

arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-31 DOI: arxiv-2407.21409

Tom Brown, Fabian Neumann, Iegor Riepin

{"title":"Price formation without fuel costs: the interaction of elastic demand with storage bidding","authors":"Tom Brown, Fabian Neumann, Iegor Riepin","doi":"arxiv-2407.21409","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2407.21409","url":null,"abstract":"Studies looking at electricity market designs for very high shares of wind\u0000and solar often conclude that the energy-only market will break down. Without\u0000fuel costs, it is said that there is nothing to set prices. Symptoms of\u0000breakdown include long phases of zero prices, scarcity prices too high to be\u0000politically acceptable, prices that collapse under small perturbations of\u0000capacities from the long-term equilibrium, cost recovery that is impossible due\u0000to low market values, high variability of revenue between different weather\u0000years, and difficulty operating long-term storage with limited foresight. We\u0000argue that all these problems are an artefact of modeling with perfectly\u0000inelastic demand. If short-term elasticity to reflect today's flexible demand\u0000(-5%) is implemented in the model, these problems are significantly reduced.\u0000The combined interaction of demand willingness to pay and storage opportunity\u0000costs is enough to produce stable pricing. This behavior is illustrated by a\u0000model with wind, solar, batteries, and hydrogen-based storage, where a\u0000piecewise linear demand curve removes high price peaks and reduces the fraction\u0000of zero-price hours from 90% to around 30%, and entails more price stability\u0000for perturbations of capacity and different weather years. Furthermore, we show\u0000that with elastic demand, the long-term model exactly reproduces the prices of\u0000the short-term model with the same capacities. We then use insights from the\u0000long-term model to derive simple bidding strategies for storage so that we can\u0000also run the short-term model with limited operational foresight. We\u0000demonstrate this short-term operation in a model trained on 35 years of weather\u0000data and tested on another 35 years of unseen data. We conclude that the\u0000energy-only market can still play a key role in coordinating dispatch and\u0000investment in the future.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"56 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141870298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Algorithm-Assisted Decision Making and Racial Disparities in Housing: A Study of the Allegheny Housing Assessment Tool 算法辅助决策与住房方面的种族差异：阿勒格尼住房评估工具研究

arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI: arxiv-2407.21209

Lingwei Cheng, Cameron Drayton, Alexandra Chouldechova, Rhema Vaithianathan

{"title":"Algorithm-Assisted Decision Making and Racial Disparities in Housing: A Study of the Allegheny Housing Assessment Tool","authors":"Lingwei Cheng, Cameron Drayton, Alexandra Chouldechova, Rhema Vaithianathan","doi":"arxiv-2407.21209","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2407.21209","url":null,"abstract":"The demand for housing assistance across the United States far exceeds the\u0000supply, leaving housing providers the task of prioritizing clients for receipt\u0000of this limited resource. To be eligible for federal funding, local\u0000homelessness systems are required to implement assessment tools as part of\u0000their prioritization processes. The Vulnerability Index Service Prioritization\u0000Decision Assistance Tool (VI-SPDAT) is the most commonly used assessment tool\u0000nationwide. Recent studies have criticized the VI-SPDAT as exhibiting racial\u0000bias, which may lead to unwarranted racial disparities in housing provision.\u0000Such criticisms have led certain jurisdictions to develop alternative tools.\u0000Using data from one such prioritization tool, called the Allegheny Housing\u0000Assessment (AHA), we use descriptive and quantitative analysis to assess\u0000whether the replacement of the VI-SPDAT with the AHA impacts racial disparities\u0000in housing allocation. We find that the VI-SPDAT tended to assign higher risk\u0000scores to white clients and lower risk scores to Black clients, and that white\u0000clients were served at a higher rates pre-AHA deployment. While post-deployment\u0000service decisions became better aligned with the AHA score, and the\u0000distribution of AHA scores is similar across racial groups, we do not find\u0000evidence of a corresponding decrease in disparities in service rates. We\u0000attribute the persistent disparity to the use of Alt-AHA, a survey-based tool\u0000that is used in cases of low data quality, as well as group differences in\u0000eligibility-related factors, such as chronic homelessness and veteran status.\u0000We discuss the implications for housing service systems seeking to reduce\u0000racial disparities in their service delivery.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"96 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141870333","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Close to Home: Analyzing Urban Consumer Behavior and Consumption Space in Seoul 离家近：分析首尔的城市消费行为和消费空间

arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI: arxiv-2407.20587

Hyoji Choi, Frank Neffke, Donghyeon Yu, Bogang Jun

引用次数: 0

Nonparametric Estimation of Matching Efficiency and Mismatch in Labor Markets via Public Employment Security Offices in Japan, 1972-2024 1972-2024 年日本公共职业安定所劳动力市场匹配效率和错配的非参数估计

arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI: arxiv-2407.20931

Suguru Otani

引用次数: 0

Legal Aspects of Decentralized and Platform-Driven Economies 去中心化和平台驱动型经济的法律问题

arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-29 DOI: arxiv-2407.20301

Marcelo Corrales Compagnucci, Toshiyuki Kono, Shinto Teramoto

{"title":"Legal Aspects of Decentralized and Platform-Driven Economies","authors":"Marcelo Corrales Compagnucci, Toshiyuki Kono, Shinto Teramoto","doi":"arxiv-2407.20301","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2407.20301","url":null,"abstract":"The sharing economy is sprawling across almost every sector and activity\u0000around the world. About a decade ago, there were only a handful of platform\u0000driven companies operating on the market. Zipcar, BlaBlaCar and Couchsurfing\u0000among them. Then Airbnb and Uber revolutionized the transportation and\u0000hospitality industries with a presence in virtually every major city. Access\u0000over ownership is the paradigm shift from the traditional business model that\u0000grants individuals the use of products or services without the necessity of\u0000buying them. Digital platforms, data and algorithm-driven companies as well as\u0000decentralized blockchain technologies have tremendous potential. But they are\u0000also changing the rules of the game. One of such technologies challenging the\u0000legal system are AI systems that will also reshape the current legal framework\u0000concerning the liability of operators, users and manufacturers. Therefore, this\u0000introductory chapter deals with explaining and describing the legal issues of\u0000some of these disruptive technologies. The chapter argues for a more\u0000forward-thinking and flexible regulatory structure.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"362 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141870303","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0