{"title":"完美风暴第一自然地理与经济发展","authors":"Christian Vedel","doi":"arxiv-2408.00885","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Is geography destiny? What is the role of first-nature geography in\ndetermining prosperity? This paper estimates the effect of randomly removing\nand introducing favorable first-nature geography to a specific region using a\ndifference in difference design. In 1825 a storm created a new natural\nnavigable waterway, bringing trade and prosperity to the otherwise relatively\nisolated northwestern Denmark. 700 years prior, the same event happened in\nreverse, when a previous channel closed up between 1086 and 1208. The\nelasticity of geography-induced market access is estimated to be 1.6,\ncorresponding to 26.7 percent population growth within a generation of the\nevent. Demonstrated mechanisms include trade, fertility, fishing, and the rise\nof manufacturing. The central finding is replicated in reverse in a register of\ndated archaeological sites. The 1086-1208 closing caused fewer buildings and\nsites containing coins. The general insight is the same: First-nature geography\ndetermines the levels and location of prosperity.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A Perfect Storm: First-Nature Geography and Economic Development\",\"authors\":\"Christian Vedel\",\"doi\":\"arxiv-2408.00885\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Is geography destiny? What is the role of first-nature geography in\\ndetermining prosperity? This paper estimates the effect of randomly removing\\nand introducing favorable first-nature geography to a specific region using a\\ndifference in difference design. In 1825 a storm created a new natural\\nnavigable waterway, bringing trade and prosperity to the otherwise relatively\\nisolated northwestern Denmark. 700 years prior, the same event happened in\\nreverse, when a previous channel closed up between 1086 and 1208. The\\nelasticity of geography-induced market access is estimated to be 1.6,\\ncorresponding to 26.7 percent population growth within a generation of the\\nevent. Demonstrated mechanisms include trade, fertility, fishing, and the rise\\nof manufacturing. The central finding is replicated in reverse in a register of\\ndated archaeological sites. The 1086-1208 closing caused fewer buildings and\\nsites containing coins. The general insight is the same: First-nature geography\\ndetermines the levels and location of prosperity.\",\"PeriodicalId\":501273,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"arXiv - ECON - General Economics\",\"volume\":\"13 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"arXiv - ECON - General Economics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.00885\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.00885","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
A Perfect Storm: First-Nature Geography and Economic Development
Is geography destiny? What is the role of first-nature geography in
determining prosperity? This paper estimates the effect of randomly removing
and introducing favorable first-nature geography to a specific region using a
difference in difference design. In 1825 a storm created a new natural
navigable waterway, bringing trade and prosperity to the otherwise relatively
isolated northwestern Denmark. 700 years prior, the same event happened in
reverse, when a previous channel closed up between 1086 and 1208. The
elasticity of geography-induced market access is estimated to be 1.6,
corresponding to 26.7 percent population growth within a generation of the
event. Demonstrated mechanisms include trade, fertility, fishing, and the rise
of manufacturing. The central finding is replicated in reverse in a register of
dated archaeological sites. The 1086-1208 closing caused fewer buildings and
sites containing coins. The general insight is the same: First-nature geography
determines the levels and location of prosperity.