arXiv - ECON - General Economics最新文献_第4页

Challenges and Opportunities for the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives in Thailand: A Microfinance Perspective 泰国农业和农业合作社银行的挑战与机遇：小额信贷视角

arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-05 DOI: arxiv-2409.03157

Worrawoot Jumlongnark

引用次数: 0

Ensuring resilience to extreme weather events increases the ambition of mitigation scenarios on solar power and storage uptake: a study on the Italian power system 确保对极端天气事件的复原力提高了太阳能发电和储能吸收减缓方案的雄心：对意大利电力系统的研究

arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-05 DOI: arxiv-2409.03593

Alice Di Bella, Francesco Pietro Colelli

{"title":"Ensuring resilience to extreme weather events increases the ambition of mitigation scenarios on solar power and storage uptake: a study on the Italian power system","authors":"Alice Di Bella, Francesco Pietro Colelli","doi":"arxiv-2409.03593","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2409.03593","url":null,"abstract":"This study explores compounding impacts of climate change on power system's\u0000load and generation, emphasising the need to integrate adaptation and\u0000mitigation strategies into investment planning. We combine existing and novel\u0000empirical evidence to model impacts on: i) air-conditioning demand; ii) thermal\u0000power outages; iii) hydro-power generation shortages. Using a power dispatch\u0000and capacity expansion model, we analyse the Italian power system's response to\u0000these climate impacts in 2030, integrating mitigation targets and optimising\u0000for cost-efficiency at an hourly resolution. We outline different\u0000meteorological scenarios to explore the impacts of both average climatic\u0000changes and the intensification of extreme weather events. We find that\u0000addressing extreme weather in power system planning will require an extra 5-8\u0000GW of photovoltaic (PV) capacity, on top of the 50 GW of the additional solar\u0000PV capacity required by the mitigation target alone. Despite the higher initial\u0000investments, we find that the adoption of renewable technologies, especially\u0000PV, alleviates the power system's vulnerability to climate change and extreme\u0000weather events. Furthermore, enhancing short-term storage with lithium-ion\u0000batteries is crucial to counterbalance the reduced availability of dispatchable\u0000hydro generation.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142192971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Safety vs. Performance: How Multi-Objective Learning Reduces Barriers to Market Entry 安全与性能：多目标学习如何减少进入市场的障碍

arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-05 DOI: arxiv-2409.03734

Meena Jagadeesan, Michael I. Jordan, Jacob Steinhardt

{"title":"Safety vs. Performance: How Multi-Objective Learning Reduces Barriers to Market Entry","authors":"Meena Jagadeesan, Michael I. Jordan, Jacob Steinhardt","doi":"arxiv-2409.03734","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2409.03734","url":null,"abstract":"Emerging marketplaces for large language models and other large-scale machine\u0000learning (ML) models appear to exhibit market concentration, which has raised\u0000concerns about whether there are insurmountable barriers to entry in such\u0000markets. In this work, we study this issue from both an economic and an\u0000algorithmic point of view, focusing on a phenomenon that reduces barriers to\u0000entry. Specifically, an incumbent company risks reputational damage unless its\u0000model is sufficiently aligned with safety objectives, whereas a new company can\u0000more easily avoid reputational damage. To study this issue formally, we define\u0000a multi-objective high-dimensional regression framework that captures\u0000reputational damage, and we characterize the number of data points that a new\u0000company needs to enter the market. Our results demonstrate how multi-objective\u0000considerations can fundamentally reduce barriers to entry -- the required\u0000number of data points can be significantly smaller than the incumbent company's\u0000dataset size. En route to proving these results, we develop scaling laws for\u0000high-dimensional linear regression in multi-objective environments, showing\u0000that the scaling rate becomes slower when the dataset size is large, which\u0000could be of independent interest.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142192969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Deep Learning for Multi-Country GDP Prediction: A Study of Model Performance and Data Impact 用于多国 GDP 预测的深度学习：模型性能和数据影响研究

arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-04 DOI: arxiv-2409.02551

Huaqing Xie, Xingcheng Xu, Fangjia Yan, Xun Qian, Yanqing Yang

{"title":"Deep Learning for Multi-Country GDP Prediction: A Study of Model Performance and Data Impact","authors":"Huaqing Xie, Xingcheng Xu, Fangjia Yan, Xun Qian, Yanqing Yang","doi":"arxiv-2409.02551","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2409.02551","url":null,"abstract":"GDP is a vital measure of a country's economic health, reflecting the total\u0000value of goods and services produced. Forecasting GDP growth is essential for\u0000economic planning, as it helps governments, businesses, and investors\u0000anticipate trends, make informed decisions, and promote stability and growth.\u0000While most previous works focus on the prediction of the GDP growth rate for a\u0000single country or by machine learning methods, in this paper we give a\u0000comprehensive study on the GDP growth forecasting in the multi-country scenario\u0000by deep learning algorithms. For the prediction of the GDP growth where only\u0000GDP growth values are used, linear regression is generally better than deep\u0000learning algorithms. However, for the regression and the prediction of the GDP\u0000growth with selected economic indicators, deep learning algorithms could be\u0000superior to linear regression. We also investigate the influence of the novel\u0000data -- the light intensity data on the prediction of the GDP growth, and\u0000numerical experiments indicate that they do not necessarily improve the\u0000prediction performance. Code is provided at\u0000https://github.com/Sariel2018/Multi-Country-GDP-Prediction.git.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142192974","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Scaling Laws for Economic Productivity: Experimental Evidence in LLM-Assisted Translation 经济生产力的规模法则：法学硕士辅助翻译的实验证据

arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-04 DOI: arxiv-2409.02391

Ali Merali

引用次数: 0

Coping or Hoping? Livelihood Diversification and Food Insecurity in the COVID-19 Pandemic 应对还是希望？COVID-19 大流行中的生计多样化和粮食不安全问题

arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-03 DOI: arxiv-2409.02285

Ann M. Furbush, Anna Josephson, Talip Kilic, Jeffrey D. Michler

引用次数: 0

Impact Evaluations in Data Poor Settings: The Case of Stress-Tolerant Rice Varieties in Bangladesh 数据匮乏环境下的影响评估：孟加拉国抗逆水稻品种案例

arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-03 DOI: arxiv-2409.02201

Jeffrey D. Michler, Dewan Abdullah Al Rafi, Jonathan Giezendanner, Anna Josephson, Valerien O. Pede, Elizabeth Tellman

{"title":"Impact Evaluations in Data Poor Settings: The Case of Stress-Tolerant Rice Varieties in Bangladesh","authors":"Jeffrey D. Michler, Dewan Abdullah Al Rafi, Jonathan Giezendanner, Anna Josephson, Valerien O. Pede, Elizabeth Tellman","doi":"arxiv-2409.02201","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2409.02201","url":null,"abstract":"Impact evaluations of new technologies are critical to assessing and\u0000improving investment in national and international development goals. Yet many\u0000of these technologies are introduced and promoted at times and in places that\u0000lack the necessary data to conduct a strongly identified impact evaluation. We\u0000present a new method that combines remotely sensed Earth observation (EO) data,\u0000recent advances in machine learning, and socioeconomic survey data so as to\u0000allow researchers to conduct impact evaluations of a certain class of\u0000technologies when traditional economic data is missing. To demonstrate our\u0000approach, we study stress tolerant rice varieties (STRVs) that were introduced\u0000in Bangladesh more than a decade ago. Using 20 years of EO data on rice\u0000production and flooding, we fail to replicate existing RCT and field trial\u0000evidence of STRV effectiveness. We validate this failure to replicate with\u0000administrative and household panel data as well as conduct Monte Carlo\u0000simulations to test the sensitivity to mismeasurement of past evidence on the\u0000effectiveness of STRVs. Our findings speak to conducting large scale, long-term\u0000impact evaluations to verify external validity of small scale experimental data\u0000while also laying out a path for researchers to conduct similar evaluations in\u0000other data poor settings.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"75 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142192975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Inventor Mobility After the Fall of the Berlin Wall 柏林墙倒塌后发明家的流动性

arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-03 DOI: arxiv-2409.01861

Paul Hünermund, Ann Hipp

{"title":"Inventor Mobility After the Fall of the Berlin Wall","authors":"Paul Hünermund, Ann Hipp","doi":"arxiv-2409.01861","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2409.01861","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the inter-organizational and spatial mobility patterns of\u0000East German inventors following the fall of the Berlin Wall. Existing research\u0000often overlooks the role of informal institutions in the mobility decisions of\u0000inventors, particularly regarding access to and transfer of knowledge. To\u0000address this gap, we investigate the unique circumstances surrounding the\u0000dissolution of the German Democratic Republic, which caused a significant shock\u0000to establishment closures and prompted many inventors to change their jobs and\u0000locations. Our sample comprises over 25,000 East German inventors, whose\u0000patenting careers in reunified Germany post-1990 are traced using a novel\u0000disambiguation and matching procedure. Our findings reveal that East German\u0000inventors in technological fields where access to Western knowledge was\u0000facilitated by industrial espionage were more likely to pursue\u0000inter-organizational mobility and continue their inventive activities in\u0000reunified Germany. Additionally, inventors from communities with strong\u0000political support for the ruling socialist party encountered difficulties in\u0000sourcing knowledge through weak ties, resulting in a lower likelihood of\u0000continuing to patent. However, those who overcame these obstacles and continued\u0000to produce inventions were more likely to relocate to West Germany, leaving\u0000their original social contexts behind.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"143 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142193017","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Reinterpreting economic complexity in multiple dimensions 从多个维度重新解读经济的复杂性

arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-03 DOI: arxiv-2409.01830

Önder Nomaler, Bart Verspagen

{"title":"Reinterpreting economic complexity in multiple dimensions","authors":"Önder Nomaler, Bart Verspagen","doi":"arxiv-2409.01830","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2409.01830","url":null,"abstract":"We build on the interpretation of the Economic Complexity method as\u0000Correspondence Analysis (CA), and propose that the Canonical form of CA (CCA),\u0000which originated in the ecology literature, can be used to calculate\u0000multi-dimensional economic complexity. The traditional (CA) way of calculating\u0000economic complexity includes no \"external\" information such as countries'\u0000development characteristics to facilitate interpretation of \"complexity\". This\u0000has led to a wide range of fairly ad hoc interpretations of economic complexity\u0000on the basis of ex-post correlation to a long list of other variables. By the\u0000ex-ante inclusion of a number of country variables in the construction of the\u0000complexity indicators, CCA enables better interpretation, also in the case of\u0000multi-dimensional indicators. The analysis is further facilitated by another\u0000element of the ecologists' toolbox, the so-called biplots, which are CCA-based\u0000graph embeddings that represent a lower-dimensional product-space in which\u0000products and countries are positioned together, in mutual correspondence to\u0000each other. We show that in this way, CCA provides a richer account of\u0000development in many of its aspects, especially economic growth.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"125 19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142192978","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Price effects and pass-through of a VAT increase on restaurants in Germany: causal evidence for the first months and a mega sports event 德国餐饮业增值税增长的价格效应和传递：头几个月和大型体育赛事的因果证据

arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI: arxiv-2409.01180

Matthias Firgo

引用次数: 0